Li Jingliang

Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.

Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.

Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.

Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.

The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.

Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.

Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.

Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.

Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.

The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.

Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.

Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.

Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.

Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.

Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.

Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.

Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.

Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.

Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.

Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.

Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.

Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.

Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.