UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by decision. He notes that Holloway has only lost to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier, McGregor) and that Kattar is a big step up in competition. He highlights Kattar's poor striking defense, absorbing more than he lands (5.66 vs 5.01), which is a red flag against Holloway's volume. He also mentions Holloway's motivation after two losses and that he looked great in his last fight. He believes Kattar's only path is a knockout, but Holloway hasn't been knocked out in 27 fights.

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar for the upset, citing Kattar's power and ability to land hard shots that could sway judges. He notes Holloway's ego and emotional issues may have cost him the Volk rematch, and that Holloway absorbs many head strikes. He believes Kattar doesn't need to match volume but land the cleaner, harder shots over five rounds.

Kattar is the more technical striker with crisp hands and a piston-like jab. He matches Holloway in height and reach, which neutralizes Holloway's typical range advantage. Holloway has been hurt in past fights and Kattar has the power to finish. Kattar's cardio held up in a five-round fight against Dan Ige, and his New England Cartel camp is on a hot streak. The main concern is Holloway's volume, but Kattar's cleaner striking should win rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar, citing Holloway's improved kicking game, five-round experience, and youth. He notes Kattar's broken nose as a major vulnerability, expecting Holloway to target it with jabs. He predicts Holloway will win four rounds to one, with Kattar taking the first round before Holloway makes adjustments. He also questions Kattar's KO power, noting he hasn't faced a chin like Holloway's.

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.

Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.

Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.

The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by decision, but is hesitant about the -270 line. He thinks Buckley will throw more output but doesn't expect a knockout because Di Chirico has never been knocked out. He notes that Di Chirico makes fights boring and is tough. He warns that Buckley has been knocked out before and that Di Chirico has sneaky power. He advises treading lightly on the line.

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley confidently, calling this a setup fight for Di Chirico's likely exit. He notes Buckley's momentum, improved footwork, and higher output, while Di Chirico is slow, hesitant, and doesn't throw enough. He acknowledges Di Chirico's sharp counters but believes Buckley's aggression and volume will prevail.

Buckley is the younger, more explosive fighter who will set the pace and move forward. Di Chirico has never been knocked out, but he has low output and lost a striking battle to Zach Cummings. Buckley's power and pressure should overwhelm Di Chirico, but a decision is more likely than a finish given Di Chirico's durability. The line is chalky, but Buckley is a solid parlay piece. The hype around Buckley is real, but he may not get the highlight-reel KO the UFC wants.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alessio Di Chirico, calling it an easy matchup for Buckley. He notes Di Chirico is on a losing streak and coming off a head kick KO, while Buckley is evolving and more active. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley tends to settle in early in the second round. He criticizes the matchup as too easy for Buckley.

Big Brady picks Duško Todorović to win by decision, citing better cardio and volume. He notes that Todorović throws a crazy amount of volume but has poor striking defense, leaving his chin up. He thinks Soriano hits hard and has good wrestling, but Todorović's cardio advantage will take Soriano into deeper waters. He doesn't see a finish likely, but if there is one, it would be Soriano by knockout.

Daniel Levi is confident in Duško Todorović, praising his elite confidence, high work rate, cardio, dirty boxing, and experience against tough opponents. He believes Soriano's only path is an early left hand, but Todorović will weather the storm and take over as the fight extends. He sees Todorović as a future top-15 fighter.

Soriano is a powerful, explosive fighter with good strength and durability. Todorović has a karate-style stance and relies on head movement, but he leans back and keeps his hands low, which could be exploited by Soriano's power. Soriano showed he can go to a decision and use grappling if needed. Todorović's cardio is questionable, and Soriano's strength should allow him to bully Todorović in the clinch and on the ground. At plus money, Soriano is a live underdog with a good chance to win inside the distance.

The MMA Guru picks Duško Todorović over Punahele Soriano, citing Todorović's superior technical game, reach advantage, and better competition. He expects Todorović to exploit Soriano's wild swinging by shooting for takedowns and eventually securing a submission in the third round. He notes Soriano's power but believes Todorović's versatility will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Joselyne Edwards as an underdog, expecting a close split decision. He notes that both fighters have high finishing rates but thinks the fight will primarily be on the feet. He likes Edwards' power and striking, despite lower-level competition. He is not confident enough to bet it.

Daniel Levi picks Joselyne Edwards for the upset, citing her striking power and potential. He notes Wu Yanan was dominated by Gina Mazany and Lauren Mueller, while Edwards has knockout ability. He acknowledges Edwards' wrestling is poor but believes her striking advantage will carry her.

Edwards is a well-rounded prospect with good striking, distance management, and offensive jiu-jitsu. She should have won her fight against Sarah Alpar, landing the better shots. Wu Yanan has improved her volume and confidence, but Edwards is more technical and has better kicks and combinations. The fight is likely to be a striking battle, and Edwards should land the cleaner shots. However, Wu's volume could sway judges, making this a risky bet. At plus money, Edwards offers value.

The MMA Guru picks Wu Yanan over Joselyne Edwards, citing Edwards taking the fight on short notice after the holidays, which he believes will affect her conditioning. He also notes Wu's full camp and more experience. He predicts Wu will outgrind Edwards in the later rounds for a 30-27 decision.

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe to win by decision, citing his volume and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Felipe has a good chin and has never been knocked out, while Tafa has power but is less active. He likes the over 1.5 rounds due to Felipe's durability and lack of one-punch knockout power. He thinks if there is a finish, it would be from Tafa, but Felipe's chin should hold.

Daniel Levi leans Carlos Felipe due to more experience and volume, though he acknowledges Tafa's power and potential improvement. He notes Felipe's fight with Spivak showed durability, and he mixes body punches. He calls it a possible dollar pass due to heavyweight variance.

Felipe has a well-rounded game with good volume, pressure, and durability. He outworked Jorgen de Castro and showed a solid chin. Tafa relies on his power, especially his uppercut, but his defense is poor and he has cardio issues. Felipe's head movement and defensive striking should keep him safe, and his pace will overwhelm Tafa as the fight goes on. Tafa's only path to victory is an early KO, but Felipe has never been knocked out. Felipe by decision or late finish is likely.

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa, citing Felipe's better cardio, chin, and fight IQ. He expects Felipe to weather Tafa's early power, clinch against the cage, and slow Tafa down for a late second or third round TKO. He notes Tafa's tendency to rush recklessly and his lack of cardio in longer fights.

Big Brady picks Ramazan Emeev to win by grinding decision. He notes that Emeev has better wrestling and cardio, but Zawada is dangerous off his back and on the feet. He thinks Emeev will get takedowns and control the fight, but warns that Zawada is a finisher and Emeev has been knocked out and submitted before. He says he wouldn't bet on it and would leave Emeev out of parlays.

Daniel Levi picks Ramazan Emeev via decision, citing Emeev's patient clinch-heavy style and Zawada's grappling mistakes and poor cardio. He notes Zawada is exciting but makes too many errors, and Emeev has never been bullied. He expects Emeev to avoid big shots and win a decision.

Emeev is an efficient fighter with a good mix of striking, clinch, and takedowns. He has low output but lands effective shots, especially his right hand. However, his takedowns can leave him vulnerable to submissions, which is a concern against a high-level jiu-jitsu player like Zawada. Zawada has shown he can pull off upsets, but his striking is less technical. Emeev should win a striking battle and has better cardio. The line is too high for a lock, but Emeev is a solid parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Ramazan Emeev over David Zawada, arguing that Zawada's losses to lower-level competition (like Danny Roberts) indicate he's not ready for Emeev. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponents (Anthony Rocco Martin and Li Jingliang) to suggest Emeev is the better fighter. He also notes Emeev's reach advantage despite being shorter.

Big Brady picks Vanessa Melo as an underdog by split decision. He thinks Melo can stuff takedowns and has a slight edge on the feet. He notes that Moras' wrestling is bad and she has looked awful recently. He expects a close, ugly fight and doesn't see a finish.

Daniel Levi is hesitant but picks Sarah Moras, though he warns not to lay chalk on her. He notes that Vanessa Melo has never been finished and has had short-notice fights, while Moras lost to Talita Bernardo. He sees it as a dog-or-pass situation but leans Moras due to Melo's weight issues.

Moras has more experience and a size advantage, with a good base and strength. She should be able to overpower Melo in the clinch and on the ground. Melo is on a three-fight losing streak and has poor striking defense, moving linearly forward. Moras is not a great striker but can grind out a decision. The line is too high to bet, but Moras is the likely winner. The fight is low-level, and Moras's experience should be the difference.

The MMA Guru picks Sarah Moras over Vanessa Melo, calling both fighters 'very very bad' but giving Moras the edge due to her size, reach, and slightly better technique. He believes Moras's physical advantages will be the tipping point in a low-level matchup.

Big Brady picks Austin Lingo to win by first-round knockout. He expects both fighters to stand and bang until one falls. He notes that Kilburn has been finished in all three losses by submission, but he thinks Lingo will knock him out. He doesn't love the -225 line but believes Lingo is the more skilled fighter.

Daniel Levi is extremely confident in Austin Lingo, calling Jacob Kilburn potentially the worst fighter in the featherweight division. He cites insider information from ATT training partners who dominated Kilburn in sparring, and notes that Lingo's poor debut was due to late notice. He expects Lingo to win by knockout or dominant decision.

Lingo has dynamite in his hands and is a combination striker with good footwork. Kilburn is a one-and-done puncher who throws spinning attacks but lacks combinations. Both are primarily strikers, so the fight should stay on the feet. Lingo's better technique and camp (Fortis MMA) give him the edge. However, Lingo's price is steep, and he has limited UFC tape. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is a better bet, as both have finishing ability.

The MMA Guru picks Austin Lingo over Jacob Kilburn, citing Lingo's superior ground game as a fallback if striking doesn't work. He notes Kilburn's glaring weakness on the ground, exposed in previous losses. He predicts a finish in the second or third round, either by TKO or submission, as Kilburn slows down.