UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi

Angelo has a slight lean to Kara-France due to his takedown defense (86%) and UFC experience. He thinks Albazi is unproven against top competition. However, he acknowledges Kara-France may be overrated and could get overconfident. He is not betting this fight.

Cody agrees with Paul, stating it's hard to back Albazi because he hasn't faced elite competition. He highlights Kara-France's performance against Moreno, where he caused problems early. Cody notes the small cage could help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed are clear advantages. He concludes that in a pick 'em fight, Kara-France is the value side.

Connor picks Kai Kara-France, emphasizing that Kara-France is the best counter-puncher Albazi has faced and that Albazi's pressure style may hit its ceiling. He notes that if Kara-France pressures, Albazi's game dissolves, as seen against Torres. Connor also highlights that Kara-France has improved his ability to push a pace and has better defensive wrestling, though he acknowledges Albazi's grappling danger if Kara-France makes mistakes.

Daniel argues that while Kai Kara-France has fought better competition, he has lost to all those top guys, whereas Albazi has handled everyone put in front of him. He believes Albazi's grappling upside and serviceable striking will be enough, and that Kara-France tends to fade in later rounds when pressured. He sees this as a chance for Albazi to rise to the occasion and win his first UFC main event.

Jacob picks Albazi, believing Kara-France will get overconfident in his striking and get caught. He thinks Albazi's jab and power will wear on Kara-France, leading to a takedown or knockout. Jacob notes Kara-France has a history of getting hit when he's too aggressive. He is confident Albazi wins.

Kara-France has improved defensive grappling and superior striking. Albazi will struggle to implement his grapple-heavy approach. Kara-France will stuff takedowns, land damaging blows, and win a decision. The fight likely goes over 3.5 rounds.

Paul picks Kai Kara-France based on his elite level competition and proven ability against top flyweights like Moreno and Garbrandt. He notes Albazi's wins are against lower-tier opponents and his last fight showed low output and takedown struggles. Paul sees Kara-France as the more reliable pick with better experience and accuracy, while Albazi is more of a hope. He mentions the small cage might help Albazi but believes Kara-France's footwork and speed will be decisive.

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France, citing his great takedown defense, survivability, and patience on the feet. He notes that Kara-France doesn't get hit clean often and has a good chin. He believes Albazi will struggle to get takedowns or finishes, and that Kara-France's experience in five-round fights (interim title fight with Moreno) will be an advantage. He predicts Kara-France will take over as the fight goes on and possibly get a fourth-round TKO.

Zane picks Kai Kara-France because he is the more proven fighter and has shown improved defensive wrestling and pace-pushing. He questions how Albazi will handle being pressured, as his last time on the back foot against Jose Torres his game dissolved. Zane also notes that Kara-France is harder to wrestle now and that Albazi's takedowns, while good, are simpler to stop compared to chain wrestlers like Askarov.

Angelo picks Caceres, believing he can weather Pineda's early storm and then take over as Pineda fades. He notes Pineda is dangerous but only for about three minutes. Angelo is concerned about recency bias from Caceres' knockout win over Julian Erosa, but still thinks Caceres' durability and experience will carry him.

Cody picks Caceres, noting his resurgence and improved skills across the board. He mentions Caceres has a knack for taking the back and fishing for rear-naked chokes. Cody contrasts Pineda's early-finish style with Caceres's ability to go the distance. He also notes Caceres recently lost a grappling match to Pat Sabatini, which could be a concern. Overall, he feels Caceres should win over 15 minutes but isn't overly confident.

Connor picks Pineda, citing that Caceres has historically struggled against intense, fast-starting power punchers. He notes that Pineda's aggression and power could overwhelm Caceres early, as seen in Caceres' losses to Francisco Rivera and Juan Wong. However, Connor is hesitant because Pineda is inconsistent and can be outmaneuvered by mobile strikers.

Daniel sees this as a dog-or-pass situation, noting that Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 30 finishes in 30 wins. He believes the line has overcorrected after Caceres' win over Julian Erosa, and that Pineda's grappling and finishing ability make him a live underdog. However, he acknowledges Pineda's cardio issues and the risk of him getting finished himself.

Jacob picks Pineda, citing his power and finishing ability. He thinks Pineda's leg kicks will slow Caceres' movement and set up takedowns or knockout shots. Jacob notes Caceres' recent knockout was against a broken Julian Erosa and he hasn't shown real power since 2010. He believes Pineda finds a finish.

Caceres has cleaner technical striking and a sneaky submission game. Pineda is aggressive but leaves openings. Caceres will likely land a head kick or set up a submission in the second or third round. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

Paul picks Alex Caceres but is not confident at the -180 price. He notes Caceres has improved his wrestling and striking, and his grappling is his best asset. Paul points out Pineda is a front-runner who fades in later rounds, while Caceres can survive and be dangerous in the second and third. However, he acknowledges Pineda's physical strength and BJJ could pose problems if he gets takedowns early. Paul leans Caceres over 15 minutes but won't bet heavily.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, noting he is very hard to finish due to his elusiveness. He highlights Caceres' five-fight win streak with finishes, and a close fight with Sadiq Youssef. He believes Caceres will make it tricky for Pineda on the feet and that Pineda will slow down due to rough weight cuts. He thinks if it goes to decision, Caceres wins, though Pineda is a finisher.

Zane picks Caceres because he believes Pineda's striking falls apart against fighters who use movement and angles. He notes that Pineda overthrows and is vulnerable to fluid strikers like Caceres. Zane expects Caceres to survive Pineda's early intensity and then take over, similar to how Andre Fili beat Pineda.

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.

Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.

Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.

Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.

Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.

Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.

Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.

The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.

Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.

Angelo picks Silva, citing her powerful grappling and 15 stoppage wins. He thinks Souza is too committed to her strikes, which will leave her open to takedowns. He is concerned Silva has never been to a decision and may fade late, but still expects her to win. He has bets on Silva.

Cody is hesitant on Silva at -225. He notes Silva's wrestling and physical strength could lead to a grappling match, which favors her. However, he questions whether Silva's wins over lower-level competition justify the price. He thinks Souza could be a decent prospect but is unsure how quickly she can adapt. Cody doesn't feel confident enough to bet Silva at this price.

Connor picks Silva, noting that she is more durable and has better grappling. He points out that Souza has been TKO'd by kicks before and is likely a strawweight. Connor believes Silva's single-strike power and takedown ability will be enough to win a slow-paced fight.

Daniel picks Karine Silva, noting that both fighters are finishers but Silva has a 100% finish rate. He sees Souza's lack of takedown defense as a major vulnerability, and Silva's improving striking and grappling should lead to a finish. However, he doesn't have a bet on it, calling it a dog-or-pass.

Jacob picks Silva, believing her ground game will be too much for Souza. He notes Souza stays on her back and doesn't work to get up, which plays into Silva's strengths. Jacob thinks Silva's striking defense is sound and she will get takedowns and look for finishes. He likes Silva for future fights but expects her to win here.

Silva is aggressive and prefers grappling, with most of her wins by submission. Souza is a mobile striker with good kicks but questionable takedown defense. Silva will use a grapple-heavy approach, but Souza is active off her back, so the fight may go over 2.5 rounds. Silva wins by decision.

Paul picks the underdog Ketlen Souza at +190. He notes the price is too big on Karine Silva due to unknowns about Souza's UFC debut. He mentions Souza's recent improvements, including a spinning back kick win in Invicta. However, he acknowledges Souza is uncomfortable on her back, which is Silva's path to victory. Paul is hesitant and says he'll pass on betting this fight.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Karine Silva, citing her massive finishing potential and experience in the UFC. He notes Silva has four first-round finishes in a row, including against Pollyanna Botelho, while Souza has mostly decisions against lower-level opponents. He believes Silva will hurt Souza on the feet and then secure a submission, likely a choke. He thinks if it goes to decision, Silva still wins.

Zane picks Silva, citing her better grappling and durability. He notes that Silva has solid wrestling and submission skills, while Souza is more one-dimensional and positionally sacrificial. Zane expects Silva to win the grappling exchanges and outwork Souza in a slow-paced kickboxing match.

Angelo picks Nurmagomedov, citing the long layoff for Zaleski (1.5 years) and Nurmagomedov's wrestling pressure. He thinks Zaleski tends to lose to wrestlers and has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Angelo bet Nurmagomedov at +120 for a quarter unit. He acknowledges the line is tightening but still favors the active fighter.

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, citing Zaleski's poor takedown defense (67%) and history of being taken down by wrestlers. He notes Zaleski has never faced a wrestler like Nurmagomedov, and that his long layoff and past drug test issues are red flags. Cody thinks Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be enough to grind out a win, even if he's not a high-volume takedown artist.

Connor picks Zaleski despite acknowledging Abubakar's wrestling advantage, because he believes Abubakar's poor athleticism and tendency to gas will lead to a fade. He notes that Zaleski is a physical freak who doesn't fall apart easily, and that Abubakar's wrestling often leads to his own cardio issues. Connor expects Zaleski to rally after an initial tough round, possibly winning by KO as Abubakar tires.

Daniel picks Abubakar, citing Zaleski's age (36) and recent PED suspension as reasons he may not look the same. He believes Abubakar is catching him at the perfect time and can outwork him with a grinding decision. He notes that Zaleski has historically been a violence king, but the suspension and age are major concerns.

Jacob picks Zaleski, believing his leg kicks and striking will neutralize Nurmagomedov's takedowns. He thinks Zaleski's performance against Saint Denis showed improved takedown defense. Jacob notes Nurmagomedov is flat-footed and not overly dominant in wrestling. He expects Zaleski to light up the lead leg and win by finish or decision.

Nurmagomedov has shown improved striking and a reliable grappling game. Zaleski is dangerous but coming off a long layoff and suspension. Nurmagomedov will land takedowns, control from top, and grind out a decision. Zaleski could pull off a submission or knockout, but the Dagestani wrestler is the safer pick.

Paul picks Zaleski dos Santos as a slight underdog. He notes the line movement to Nurmagomedov as favorite is undeserved, and that Zaleski is the more dangerous striker with freakish power. Paul mentions Zaleski's takedown defense is a concern, but he thinks if the fight stays standing, Zaleski has a significant advantage. He also notes Zaleski's long layoff and past drug test issues but still sides with him.

The MMA Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov, comparing the matchup to a knockoff Khabib vs Edson Barboza. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos throws a lot of kicks on the back foot and lacks pace, and hasn't fought since October 2021 (over a year and a half off). He believes Nurmagomedov's grappling, pressure, and pace will be the difference, though he acknowledges Nurmagomedov has had iffy performances. He thinks the grappling of Nurmagomedov gets the win.

Zane picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov based on his strong positional grappling and wrestling advantage. He notes that Zaleski has poor takedown defense, having been taken down six times by Nicolas Dalby, and that few opponents have tested his wrestling since. Zane believes Abubakar's takedowns and top control will be decisive, though he acknowledges Abubakar's cardio issues could be a factor if he fails to finish early.

Angelo picks Daniel Santos confidently, noting his dangerous striking and BJJ, though he has low grappling IQ. He is slightly less confident due to the fight being canceled previously for an abscess, but still believes Santos should win. He thinks Santos' pressure and power will be too much for Muñoz, who doesn't like being crowded. Angelo has bets on Santos but not in the safety parlay.

Cody also picks Santos, calling him a big fan. He notes Santos's forward pressure and aggressive style, and that Muñoz has cardio issues and low volume. Cody expects Santos to win by knockout or decision as Muñoz fades. He thinks the -220 line is a bit stiff but still picks Santos.

Connor picks Muñoz for consistency, having picked him previously. He acknowledges that Santos' pressure is a major threat, but believes Muñoz's jab will be effective early, similar to how Shabazian used his jab against Santos. Connor admits Muñoz is not creative, but thinks he can land enough jabs to win rounds, though he recognizes Santos' wildness makes this a risky pick.

Daniel picks Daniel Santos, noting that he is the more aggressive and technical fighter, though he takes risks. He believes Santos can overwhelm Muñoz with pressure and chaos, and that Muñoz doesn't like being backed up. He mentions Santos' grappling is underrated, having tapped out a high-level grappler in training.

Jacob picks Santos, citing his high-pressure Muay Thai style and ability to get dropped and bounce back. He thinks Muñoz doesn't like being crowded and lacks the takedowns to keep Santos down. Jacob notes Muñoz's only path to victory is an early takedown and grind, but Santos' scrambling and offensive wrestling should prevent that. He is confident Santos wins.

Santos is an aggressive forward-pressure fighter with power and BJJ. He will crash the pocket and land big shots. Muñoz is live for a submission if he can get it to the ground, but Santos' power and pace will be too much. Santos will knock him out in the second round.

Paul picks Daniel Santos confidently. He loves Santos's forward pressure and aggression, especially in the small Apex cage. He notes Santos is hittable but has a heart of a lion and will break opponents down over time. Paul contrasts Muñoz's questionable cardio and low volume, expecting Santos to take over in later rounds. He acknowledges Santos's loss to Julio Arce but sees that as a tough debut matchup.

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Santos, citing a lack of talent in Johnny Muñoz Jr.'s game. He notes Santos has skill in how he throws shots, pressures fighters, and cuts off the octagon, despite having striking defense issues. He criticizes Muñoz for being well-rounded but unremarkable, and points to his loss to Tony Gravely. The Guru predicts Santos will win by TKO against the cage, but if it goes to decision, it will be close.

Zane picks Santos, sticking with his previous analysis that Santos' relentless pressure and volume will overwhelm Muñoz's one-dimensional jab. He notes that Muñoz's game is built almost entirely around his jab, and Santos' wild, high-output style will break Muñoz's footwork and force him into exchanges where he is vulnerable. Zane believes Santos' aggression and durability will be too much for Muñoz to handle over three rounds.

Angelo picks Arlovski, believing he is the better fighter in every category except age and chin. He thinks Arlovski's technical striking and experience will overcome Mayes' power. He is concerned about Arlovski's chin after the last fight but still expects him to win. He would bet Arlovski if the line keeps moving.

Cody picks Arlovski, agreeing with Paul. He notes that middling heavyweights often go to decision and that Arlovski is a fan favorite who gets close decisions. Cody points out that Mayes doesn't use his physical advantages and that Arlovski's experience and durability will carry him. He also mentions that Mayes has been knocked out by lesser fighters and that Arlovski is the safer pick.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Mayes is a 'giant ball of wasted potential' who has never realized his athletic gifts. He points out that Arlovski has consistently beaten lower-tier heavyweights who lack a real striking game or finishing ability. Mayes' tendency to throw single strikes and his poor grappling will be exploited by Arlovski's steady pressure and clinch work.

Daniel picks Arlovski, though he admits he hasn't taped the fight deeply. He thinks Mayes has mental fragility and Arlovski's veteran savvy could eke out a decision. He notes that Arlovski has been quitting in fights but Mayes may not bring that out of him. He considers a sprinkle on Arlovski by decision.

Jacob picks Mayes, citing his speed and athleticism advantage over the 44-year-old Arlovski. He thinks Mayes should use range and volume to break down Arlovski's chin. He notes Arlovski looked old and uninterested in his last fight. Jacob is betting $100 on Mayes at +120.

Mayes is a hybrid heavyweight who mixes takedowns behind punches and works well in the clinch. Arlovski is reliant on striking and tends to quit when grappling gets tough. Mayes will tie him up, land takedowns, and control the fight to win a decision. The over 2.5 is the preferred bet.

Paul picks Arlovski at plus money. He notes Mayes has low output and doesn't use his reach or speed advantage. Paul mentions Arlovski's recent wins over low-output fighters and that the UFC seems to give him favorable matchups. He thinks Mayes is overrated as a favorite and that Arlovski can squeak out a decision. Paul also recalls losing money on Mayes in the past, making him hesitant to trust him.

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski, believing this is one of the heavyweight fights Arlovski wins. He criticizes Don'Tale Mayes for being hesitant on the feet and getting blanketed by Augusto Sakai. He expects Arlovski to frustrate Mayes at range with leg kicks and small shots, while Mayes will be gun-shy and not throw enough. He acknowledges an upset is possible but thinks Arlovski's skill at this level of heavyweight will take over.

Zane picks Arlovski based on his consistent ability to outwork opponents who lack a high-output striking game. He notes that Mayes is a talented but dysfunctional fighter with poor wrestling and no coherent game plan. Arlovski's jab, clinch work, and steady pace have proven too much for similar fighters like Felipe Lins and Tanner Boser. Zane believes Mayes' athleticism won't compensate for his lack of structure.

Angelo has a very slight lean to Castañeda due to Gafurov being on short notice. He notes Castañeda's forward pressure and D2 wrestling, but is concerned about his takedown defense (60%). He acknowledges Gafurov is a savage with power and good wrestling, but the short notice gives Castañeda the edge. Angelo also has a plus money bet on Gafurov, contradicting his lean.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Gafurov's cardio problems and that he missed weight on Contender Series. He thinks Gafurov on a week's notice is likely to gas out and that Castañeda's wrestling and cardio are better. Cody also mentions Gafurov's weight cut issues and advises caution.

Connor also picks Castañeda, agreeing with Zane that the short notice factor is significant. He notes that Gafurov's pressure and wrestling are a good stylistic matchup against Castañeda, but questions whether Gafurov can be effective without proper preparation. Connor sees Castañeda as a tough, busy counter-striker who can handle a slower-paced fight if Gafurov fades.

Daniel explains he bet Gafurov at plus money, citing Castañeda's extremely low output (never over 60 strikes in a UFC fight). He believes Gafurov's pace and wrestling will overwhelm Castañeda, and that Gafurov has improved since his Contender Series loss, where he was sick and on short notice. He sees this as a value play at underdog odds.

Jacob picks Gafurov, believing he can outwork Castañeda with takedowns and power. He notes Gafurov has been training and staying ready, and his LFA fights showed improved conditioning. Jacob thinks Gafurov's body work and power will break down Castañeda, who got tired in his last fight. He is not concerned about short notice because Gafurov has been preparing for this opportunity.

Gafurov is an improved striker who blends takedowns well. Castañeda is solid but struggles with forward pressure and power. Gafurov's relentless style and improved striking will allow him to win a decision. He is a slight underdog and one of the better dogs on the card.

Paul picks Castañeda, citing Gafurov's cardio issues and weight cut problems on short notice. He notes Gafurov is strong early but fades, and that Castañeda has decent wrestling and power. Paul advises waiting for weigh-ins due to Gafurov's history of missing weight. He thinks Castañeda can survive the early onslaught and take over later.

The MMA Guru picks Muin Gafurov over John Castañeda, citing Castañeda coming off a brutal KO loss. He notes Gafurov's experience at a high level, including a close split decision loss to Chad Anheliger (decided by a big knockdown) and a loss to John Lineker. Gafurov is on a two-fight finish streak and has fought in UAE Warriors and ONE Championship. The Guru acknowledges Gafurov took the fight on short notice but still thinks he gets the win.

Zane picks Castañeda primarily due to Gafurov taking the fight on short notice, which raises questions about his conditioning and preparation. He acknowledges that Gafurov's wrestling and pressure could work well against Castañeda, who tends to let opponents set the pace. However, Zane is unsure if Gafurov can maintain his output without a full camp, and leans toward Castañeda's durability and ability to outwork a fading opponent.

Angelo picks Mullarkey due to short notice for Naimov, but is not touching the odds (-590). He thinks Mullarkey is a jack of all trades and should win, but Naimov is decent and could cause trouble. He notes Mullarkey was preparing for a good striker, so his grappling should be on point. He is not confident enough to bet.

Cody picks Mullarkey, noting his favorable matchup after originally facing a tough wrestler. He highlights Mullarkey's solid cardio, ground game, and power. Cody recalls Naimov's poor Contender Series performance where he was outwrestled and out struck. He thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and durability will be too much for Naimov, even if Naimov has a puncher's chance.

Connor picks Mullarkey, agreeing with the size and short-notice factors. He notes that Naimov's game is based on pocket exchanges and clinch knees, but Mullarkey's toughness and ability to survive should allow him to take over. Connor also points out that Naimov struggles when pressured, and Mullarkey can put his foot on the gas.

Daniel picks Mullarkey, noting that Naimov is a step up in competition and Mullarkey's experience should carry him. He acknowledges the line is high but thinks Mullarkey can use wrestling to control the fight. He mentions that Naimov showed cardio issues in his Contender Series fight, gassing in the third round.

Jacob picks Mullarkey, believing the path to victory via wrestling is obvious. He thinks Naimov is dangerous with unorthodox striking, but Mullarkey should grapple early and win easily. Jacob notes Mullarkey has more power than people think and is a tough matchup. He is confident Mullarkey wins but acknowledges the odds are too high.

Mullarkey is the better overall fighter with a well-rounded game. Naimov is a short-notice debutant with questionable cardio and level of competition. Mullarkey will mix striking and grappling, pull ahead later, and win by decision. The odds are too high (-350), but Mullarkey should win.

Paul picks Mullarkey confidently despite the high price. He notes Mullarkey's toughness, having been dropped by Michael Johnson and recovered. Paul thinks Mullarkey's wrestling and cardio are superior, and that Naimov's Contender Series performance was unimpressive. He expects Mullarkey to take Naimov down, grind him out, and get a TKO in the second or third round. Paul acknowledges the price is steep but sees Mullarkey as safe.

The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Naimov, calling this the main event for him. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey looked good in his last win but that Michael Johnson arguably beat him. He believes Naimov is a different level, with a split decision win over Damir Ismagulov and a win over Matteus Gamrot. He thinks Naimov's body kicks will be key, as Mullarkey keeps his guard high, leaving the body open. He predicts Naimov will open up shots to the head after body work.

Zane picks Mullarkey, citing his size advantage and toughness. He notes that Naimov is a natural featherweight taking the fight on short notice, and his blitzing style may not work against Mullarkey's durability. Zane expects Mullarkey to weather any early storm and take over with his range-based game.

Angelo has a very slight lean to Frey, thinking she can slow down Reed's pace by using cage control and takedowns. He is concerned about Frey's age (38) and recent knockout loss, but believes her experience and grappling can neutralize Reed's tenacity. He notes Reed is tough and hits hard but is inconsistent. Angelo is not spending money on this fight.

Cody picks Reed, citing her improvements fight to fight. He notes Reed's striking volume and that she has shown wrestling improvements in some fights. Cody acknowledges Reed's inconsistency but thinks Frey's lack of wrestling and recent knockout loss are concerns. He picks Reed but feels awful about it.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Frey seems to hate fighting and has become a low-output, hesitant fighter. He notes that Reed has improved her combination striking and carries real power, especially with her body kicks and straight right. Connor believes that once Reed lands cleanly, Frey's confidence will shatter, leading to a finish or a clear decision for Reed.

Daniel picks Frey via a coin flip, but notes that Frey has a grappling advantage and has shown she will wrestle when needed. He sees Reed as having been finished by fighters who don't usually finish, and Frey's black belt could be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Jacob picks Elise Reed, citing her power and the matchup being tailor-made for her. He thinks Frey is not the pressure fighter who can get in Reed's face, especially coming off a knockout loss. Jacob believes Reed will pick Frey apart from distance and hurt her. He plans to bet on Reed live or closer to the fight. He also likes Reed inside the distance at -155.

Reed is a striker with deceptive power and good footwork. She can keep the fight upright and land damaging blows. Frey is a BJJ brown belt who will look for takedowns and submissions. Reed's best path is to avoid the ground and find a knockout, but confidence is low. The under 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Paul picks Frey, noting that Reed has been inconsistent and that Frey is a veteran. He mentions Reed's struggles when opponents have a wrestling advantage, but he's not sure who has that edge. Paul is not confident and says he won't bet this fight, but he picks Frey.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Elise Reed, calling it a no-brainer. He argues that Jinh Yu Frey is 38, coming off a KO loss, and should have lost to Vanessa Demopoulos, who he considers awful. He believes Reed will outbox Frey on the feet, as Frey lacks the grappling to take Reed down. He also notes Reed's win over Cory McKenna, who has good takedowns, as evidence of Reed's striking ability.

Zane picks Reed confidently, citing Frey's severe lack of output and apparent anxiety in fights. He notes that Frey has all the technical tools but cannot pull the trigger, while Reed has developed into a busier boxer who lands hard shots. Reed's power and willingness to engage should overwhelm Frey, who tends to freeze and do nothing for long stretches. Zane believes Reed's aggression and striking will be decisive.

Angelo picks Blackshear, impressed by his toughness and performance in his loss to Fareed. He thinks Blackshear is better than his winless UFC record and can defend Lacerda's takedowns, noting Lacerda is not the wrestler Fareed was. Angelo acknowledges Lacerda is dangerous everywhere but believes Blackshear's speed and accuracy will be key. He placed a $20 bet on Blackshear at +111.

Cody picks Lacerda, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lacerda looked like a problem in his debut against Stamann, showing strong takedown defense and striking. Cody highlights Blackshear's poor takedown defense and inability to get back to his feet. He thinks Lacerda's physicality and grappling will be too much, and that -150 is fair.

Connor fully agrees with Zane, praising Lacerda's assertiveness and well-rounded skills. He compares Lacerda favorably to a more aggressive version of Hacran Dias, noting that Lacerda knows how to lead and break opponents down methodically. Connor believes Blackshear's lack of striking comfort and tendency to give up the initiative will be exploited by Lacerda's pressure and takedowns.

Daniel picks Lacerda, praising his elite Jiu-Jitsu and ability to sweep and take backs. He notes that Blackshear is explosive and athletic but makes defensive mistakes and puts himself in deep submissions. He believes Lacerda's consistency and grappling will be the difference, and he wouldn't be surprised by a submission win.

Jacob picks Lacerda, believing he is the better striker with more power and Muay Thai kicks. He thinks Lacerda is next level on the ground and Blackshear will be outclassed everywhere. Jacob notes Lacerda struggled against Cody's elusive style but Blackshear will be more in front of him. He does not see a finish but expects Lacerda to out-grapple and out-strike Blackshear to win a decision.

Lacerda is a BJJ black belt who gets most of his work done on the mat with submissions. Blackshear has cardio issues and his efficiency drops after the first two rounds. Lacerda will land takedowns, establish dominant control, and find a submission in the latter half of the fight.

Paul picks Lacerda confidently, calling him the most value on the card at -150. He notes Lacerda's strong grappling and physicality, and that Blackshear cannot fight off his back. Paul recalls Lacerda's impressive UFC debut against Cody Stamann, where he nearly won. He thinks Lacerda's second fight will show an even better version, and that he has the tools to submit or dominate Blackshear.

The MMA Guru leans towards Luan Lacerda, acknowledging it's a tough matchup to predict. He notes Lacerda had a competitive fight with Cody Stamann, a tough veteran, and that Lacerda is more talented and had momentum coming into the UFC. He also mentions that Blackshear had a close fight with Farid Basharat and made big mistakes. The Guru thinks Lacerda will mix in grappling and get takedowns, but warns that Blackshear could win by finish as an underdog.

Zane picks Lacerda based on his assertive, front-foot style and well-rounded game. He notes that Blackshear is a good scrambler but tends to let opponents be first, which is dangerous against Lacerda's pressure. Lacerda's solid Muay Thai, power, and wrestling (he even took down Kody Stamann) should allow him to control the fight. Zane believes Blackshear's passive approach will lead to him being outworked and outgrappled.

Angelo picks Maxim Grishin to win, citing Grishin's calculated striking and ability to rush in when he sees an opening. He notes that Lins is hittable and looked slow in his last knockout win, despite having power and a BJJ black belt. Angelo is concerned about Grishin's takedown defense (taken down 7 times in 4 fights) but still favors Grishin's striking. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Grishin, agreeing with Paul. He notes Grishin's volume and cardio should win a boring decision. Cody mentions Grishin's chin has held up and that Lins hasn't shown anything to worry him. He also notes Grishin's withdrawals against Jailton Almeida were good management. Cody expects a low-output fight where Grishin outpoints Lins.

Connor picks Lins, favoring his dynamic power and ability to end fights suddenly. He notes that Grishin, while difficult to finish, is low-output and often gets outworked. Connor believes Lins' swarming style and improved confidence at light heavyweight could overwhelm Grishin, especially if he lands early. He acknowledges the risk but prefers the chaotic power puncher over the safe neutralizer.

Daniel leans Grishin, citing his experience and ability to stifle opponents. He notes that Lins has chin issues and has gassed in fights, while Grishin is a solid, tough guy to look good against. He doesn't rule out a finish from Grishin but sees a decision as likely. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

Jacob picks Philipe Lins, believing Lins' volume and activity will win a decision. He thinks Lins has looked good at 205 and trusts his pressure, while Grishin fights like a slow, methodical heavyweight. Jacob acknowledges Lins is hittable and could get knocked out, but in a decision he favors Lins. He notes Lins' takedowns aren't great and Grishin can wrestle, but still picks Lins as a slight dog.

Grishin is the better overall fighter and better suited for 205 pounds. He can survive Lins' early attacks, then use clinch, grappling, and volume to win by decision. The line dropped from -180 to -130, which is an overcorrection that provides value.

Paul picks Grishin, citing his better volume and cardio. He notes Lins is untrustworthy and has low output. Paul expects a 15-minute sparring match where Grishin lands the better shots. He acknowledges Grishin's 16-month layoff and age (39) but thinks his chin and submission defense hold up. Paul is not heavily invested but picks Grishin.

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin over Philipe Lins, citing Grishin's higher level of experience and tougher opponents. He notes that Grishin has fought the best in the division, including Dustin Jacoby (which he arguably should have won), and has a reach advantage. He also mentions Lins' history of failed weight cuts and canceled fights, and questions the quality of Lins' wins over OSP and Prachnio. The Guru believes Grishin's experience at a high level will be the deciding factor.

Zane picks Grishin reluctantly, citing his neutralizing style and ability to avoid being overwhelmed. He notes that Lins is a wild brawler with no structure, and Grishin's low-output, subtractive approach should allow him to tie Lins up and control the fight. Zane acknowledges Grishin is boring and unimpressive, but believes his technical skills and experience will stifle Lins' chaos.