Career Averages - Karl Roberson
Career Averages - Roman Kopylov
Karl Roberson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 64 of 114 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 9 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 8 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 39 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 16 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 20 of 43 | 46% | 18 of 37 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 21 |
| Karl Roberson | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Karl Roberson | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 15 of 28 | 53% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Karl Roberson | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Karl Roberson despite Kennedy Nzechukwu's power and reach. He notes Roberson is the better all-around fighter with solid game planning and takedowns against strikers. He worries about Roberson's knockout loss to Khalil Rountree but believes Roberson's clean technique and solid game planning will get it done. He acknowledges Kennedy will be dangerous the entire 15 minutes.
Big Brady picks Kennedy Nzechukwu primarily due to his significant size advantage (4-inch height, 9-inch reach) and superior cardio. He notes that Kennedy is still green and inconsistent, but Karl Roberson's low output, inconsistency, and three-fight skid make him hard to trust. Brady acknowledges that Roberson is more skilled but believes Kennedy's physical attributes and cardio will allow him to do more over three rounds. He expresses low confidence, calling it a borderline '100 gambler fight' and says he won't bet it.
Cody picks Nzechukwu but with low confidence. He notes Nzechukwu has a huge reach advantage but doesn't use it well, and his fights are often sloppy. He thinks Roberson has better kickboxing but terrible ring IQ. He sees this as a low-level fight where either could win.
The host discusses this fight but does not place a bet. He acknowledges that Roberson is technically the better striker and could win if he grapples, but he does not trust Roberson's fight IQ. He mentions that Roberson could win by decision or submission but ultimately does not pull the trigger.
Paul picks Roberson as a dog, noting his striking is more refined and he has better kickboxing. He thinks Roberson's durability could hold up and he might mix in takedowns. However, he's not confident due to Roberson's poor decision-making.
The Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu due to his massive size and reach advantage (9-inch reach). He believes Nzechukwu should have won his last fight and that Roberson lacks power at range. He worries about Nzechukwu's chin but notes Roberson doesn't take punches well either. He predicts a 29-28 decision win at range.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 2 | 26 of 69 | 37% | 26 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 18 of 54 | 33% | 18 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 2 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 26 of 69 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 7 | 17 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Karl Roberson | 17 of 28 | 60% | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 18 of 54 | 33% | 10 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 7 | 14 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 17 of 27 | 62% | 4 of 9 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khalil Rountree Jr. | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight edge to Karl Roberson because he believes Roberson can hang in the striking and has a clear path to victory via takedowns. He notes that the skill gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, favoring Roberson. However, he acknowledges that Khalil Rountree is a very good striker and could knock Roberson out at any moment.
Big Brady picks Karl Roberson to win by third-round submission. He notes Roberson has never been knocked out and has underrated grappling, despite being submitted by elite grapplers. He points out that Rountree has zero takedowns in 11 UFC fights, so Roberson will likely keep the fight standing where he is the better striker. He also thinks Roberson can mix in takedowns and submit Rountree, who has poor takedown defense (50%). He expects Roberson to out-strike Rountree for two rounds then get a submission in the third.
Cody leans Rountree, citing his durability, power, and pressure. He notes Roberson's ground game is weak but Rountree won't exploit it. He sees it as a striking battle where Rountree's forward pressure and power give him the edge.
Daniel Levi leans with Khalil Rountree Jr., citing his speed advantage and the fact that when Rountree is mentally on and there's no takedown threat, he can be a serious problem. He notes that both fighters have been flaky and can't be fully trusted, but Rountree's speed gives him the edge. Levi acknowledges that Karl Roberson might be tougher but thinks Rountree's speed is the difference.
Roberson is seen as the more technical striker with a better overall MMA game, including grappling and clinch work. He can nullify Rountree's early power and then chip away with kicks and takedowns. Rountree has been inconsistent, with losses to Prachnio and Cutelaba. Roberson is expected to win via decision, using a grapple-heavy game plan.
Paul has no clear pick, calling it a dogger pass. He notes both fighters have moments but he doesn't trust either. He mentions Rountree's inconsistency and Roberson's cancellations.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Karl Roberson, expecting a stand-up contest. He believes Rountree has a big advantage on the feet and will pull the trigger more than in his last fight. He predicts a KO in round two, as Rountree lands powerful shots and gains respect. He notes that Roberson has shown some grappling ability but doesn't think it will be enough to stop Rountree.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 15 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 15 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 6 of 14 | 42% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
An all-action middleweight contest is next, as two thrillers that prefer to finish their foes lock horns, when Allen (15-4, 3-1 UFC) looks to pacify “Baby K” Roberson (9-3, 4-3 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this battle is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the two decide to touch gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Allen quickly lets loose a head kick as soon as he retracts the touch, and Roberson is barely able to block it in time. Both men start trading, and both hurt the other with massive shots. Roberson gets off a body kick, and a left hand just misses the target as Allen dances out of the way to score a right. Allen fires off several kicks to the body and legs, and he clips “Baby K” with a right and a left chained into a head kick. “All In” uses his forward momentum to clinch up, where he hits a trip and puts Roberson on his back emphatically. Allen has some damage on the corner of his right eye, but he does not appear bothered by it as he crushes Roberson down in half guard. Roberson is stuck with his neck against the fence, and Allen reaches a little too far to pursue a straight armbar or kimura. Allen nearly falls off, but he readjusts himself and steps into mount, with the so-called “Dagestani handcuff” trapping Roberson’s legs while he can wail on Roberson’s face. Allen tries to pull Roberson’s legs out as he steps over toe the side, and Roberson bursts to his feet only to quickly be thrown back down to the ground. Allen in half guard squeezes with his shoulder, and Roberson can do little but hold on tight to stop the offense from coming. Allen smothers with his top pressure even though he does not land anything of note, but he does grind his elbow on Roberson’s face.
“Baby K” bucks like a bronco into a leglock from his back, and Allen defends in the 50/50 guard with his own heel hook attempt at the same time. Roberson is suddenly in big trouble, as Allen hooks the ankle underneath his armpit. “All In” torques it with seconds to spare, and Roberson grimaces in pain and taps out so his knee and ankle do not get shredded.
That is now submission number nine for Allen, who elicits this rare and elusive ankle-based tapout in impressive fashion.
The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Karl Roberson R1 4:55 via Submission (Ankle Lock)
Big Brady picks Allen to win by first-round submission, but is hesitant because Allen often fails to implement his wrestling game plan. He notes Allen's striking defense is poor and he was knocked out by Strickland when he didn't wrestle. However, Roberson's weakness is takedown defense and ground game, and Allen is a good submission artist. He hopes Allen learned from his last loss.
Cody leans toward Allen but is not confident, noting Allen's grappling skills and Roberson's weakness against wrestlers. He worries about Allen's cardio and tendency to stand and strike. He thinks Allen must take Roberson down early to win, and if he doesn't, he could get knocked out. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds.
Daniel picks Brendan Allen, expecting him to take Roberson down and submit him. He notes Roberson has been choked out three times in the UFC and that Allen's striking has improved. He hopes Allen's fight IQ is on point and predicts a first-round submission.
I'm going the opposite way on this one. I think Roberson keeps the fight on the feet and uses his leg kicks to set up a knockout. Allen's takedown accuracy is only 37%, and Roberson has decent takedown defense. If Roberson can stuff the takedowns, he has the striking advantage. I like Roberson by KO at +335, but we need to wait for weigh-ins to see if he makes weight.
Paul picks Allen but is hesitant, citing Allen's grappling advantage and Roberson's susceptibility to takedowns. He notes Allen's cardio issues and tendency to tire if he doesn't get an early finish. He thinks Allen needs to use a wrestling-heavy approach to win, and if he stands with Roberson, he could get knocked out. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Brendan Allen by second-round rear-naked choke. He notes that Allen has good submissions and has submitted Kevin Holland, while Roberson has been taken down and submitted quickly in recent fights. He expects Allen to grapple his way to a win after some stand-up exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 45 of 64 | 70% | 60 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 45 of 64 | 70% | 60 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Vettori | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 45 of 64 | 70% | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marvin Vettori | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Roberson | 45 of 64 | 70% | 45 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 43 of 52 |
Daniel Levi leans towards Marvin Vettori, citing his improved boxing, tough chin, and well-rounded game including clinch and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges Karl Roberson's potential, knockout threat, and improving jiu-jitsu, but believes Vettori is the better overall fighter. Levi notes the line may be inflated due to the hotel incident and considers it a dog-or-pass situation, but still favors Vettori by tough decision.
The MMA Guru picks Marvin Vettori, noting that Karl Roberson botched a weight cut recently and was in critical condition, which increases Vettori's chances. He highlights Vettori's forward pressure and combination punching, while Roberson struggles moving backwards. He predicts Vettori will get a TKO finish in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 37 of 95 | 38% | 38 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 43 of 117 | 36% | 43 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 9 of 38 | 23% | 9 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 37 of 95 | 38% | 19 of 72 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 43 of 117 | 36% | 14 of 77 | 3 of 10 | 26 of 30 | 41 of 115 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 12 of 28 | 42% | 5 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 9 of 38 | 23% | 3 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 11 of 30 | 36% | 4 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 18 of 41 | 43% | 2 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 17 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 14 of 37 | 37% | 10 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Moving right along, Roberson (8-2, 3-2 UFC) welcomes undefeated knockout artist Kopylov (8-0, 0-0 UFC) to the organization in a big way at middleweight. Serving as the referee for this bout will be Vyacheslav Kiselev. A touch of gloves in sporting fashion begins the fight, and Kopylov quickly opens with a few looping punches that fall short. Roberson responds with a few that are shy of the mark as well, so Kopylov aims for a kick instead. The American presses forward and lands a low kick, so Kopylov fires with a one-two up top that makes Roberson readjust his position. Trading jabs back and forth, Roberson looks to set up a big left hand, but Kopylov keeps moving and working the body to stay away from that prospective power punch. Roberson lands a few more heavy leg kicks, and then barely misses with one up high. Roberson stalks down Kopylov, and then flips up another head kick that glances off the shoulder of his opponent. Kopylov backs off and bounces off the cage a few times to find his place in the cage, and dodges some punches that fly from Roberson. Kopylov fires a head kick up that gets blocked, but follows with a quick short left that catches Roberson right on the jaw, much to the delight of the crowd -- they have not had much to cheer for so far. As Kopylov tries to dig to the body, Roberson wings a big left hand and a body kick. The Russian plants a one-two right on the jaw of his opponent, and backs away before the counters come in his direction. Kopylov just misses with a spinning back kick, so Roberson throws up a kick that almost appears to be an axe kick, leading to a clinch and the end of this razor-close round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Round 2
Once more the two men touch gloves, and trade leather immediately. Both score effectively and wear it well, but it is Roberson that is advancing and pressing forward. A straight punch to the body leads to a response from Roberson in the form of a hard leg kick, and then another. Kopylov stings Roberson with a left hand, and the crowd chants for him, but Roberson scores a heavy leg kick that makes Kopylov's knee buckle slightly. One more lands and makes Kopylov duck away, so Roberson chases after him with a head kick and falls over in the process. Kopylov allows him to get up and they touch gloves, so Roberson goes to the inside of Kopylov's lead leg. Another low kick finds its home from Roberson, and by throwing another, Kopylov's movement seems slightly hampered. Kopylov sits down on a left straight, but it does not have the same pop on it after the American lands yet another hard leg kick. The continued leg kicks are bothering Kopylov, so Roberson smartly continues to pursue it. Roberson whips another leg kick and Kopylov does not check it but actually reaches for it, and grimaces as he absorbs it. "Baby K" then launches a head kick and Kopylov is barely able to block it in time, so Roberson then pursues that lead leg some more. The leg is turning into hamburger, as these leg kicks are hard and loud. Roberson turns his hips into a leg kick and Kopylov fully takes the brunt of it, causing him to limp off. Kopylov tries to fire back at him, but he cannot plant on that lead leg, so Roberson goes after it once more to end the round dramatically.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Roberson
Round 3
Unsurprisingly, within five seconds of the last round, Roberson throws a low kick. Kopylov attempts to come back at him and catches Roberson coming in, but the Russian instead pursues a takedown that Roberson shucks off. Sensing he might be down on the scorecards, Kopylov turns up the pace and starts throwing big shots at Roberson, much to the delight of the home fans. Roberson stays largely out of harm's way, but shoots in for his own takedown, and cannot land it. The American backs away and digs to that lead leg again, forcing Kopylov to try to respond by throwing a looping hook that nearly makes him topple over. A striking exchange dings up the nose of Kopylov, who then absorbs an inside leg kick as Roberson jumps in and out. Kopylov stretches his left arm out and jabs his pointer finger directly into the eye of Roberson, and that is a nasty poke as Roberson falls over. That eye starts bleeding, and the doctor is taking a hard look at it. Roberson is calling for the fight to continue, and there is a lot of blood coming from a cut on the eyelid. Kiselev takes a point from Kopylov, but the action resumes. Now confident he is behind in the fight, Kopylov throws everything he has at Roberson by winging combinations with wild kicks and punches. Roberson eats some strikes but aims directly at that lead leg with a few more kicks, causing Kopylov to retreat. Roberson chases him down and clinches up, muscling the Russian to the ground.
Roberson takes his opponent's back, and immediately seeks out a rear-naked choke. He grabs hold of the neck and will not let go, wrenching it with all his might until the Russian taps out.
Roberson becomes the first man to defeat Kopylov, and does so in style in front of a crowd that sits in stunned silence. Russian fighters are now 0-4 tonight against their foreign adversaries.
The Official Result
Karl Roberson def. Roman Kopylov R3 4:01 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 79 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 5:48 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 38 of 67 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 | 0 | 6:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 41 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:14 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:54 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 12 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:40 |
| Wellington Turman | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 50 of 80 | 62% | 35 of 64 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 40 | 8 of 8 | 27 of 32 |
| Wellington Turman | 25 of 51 | 49% | 20 of 42 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 23 of 38 | 60% | 17 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 20 |
| Wellington Turman | 9 of 16 | 56% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 17 of 26 | 65% | 13 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 8 of 21 | 38% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 7 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 10 of 16 | 62% | 5 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Wellington Turman | 8 of 14 | 57% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Karl Roberson | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:46 |
| Karl Roberson | 1 | 24 of 30 | 80% | 29 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Karl Roberson | 24 of 30 | 80% | 22 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Karl Roberson | 24 of 30 | 80% | 22 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 21 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 0 | 34 of 71 | 47% | 90 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
| Jack Marshman | 0 | 21 of 98 | 21% | 30 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Jack Marshman | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 16 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 8 of 20 | 40% | 35 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Jack Marshman | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 40 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
| Jack Marshman | 0 | 0 of 15 | 0% | 4 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Roberson | 34 of 71 | 47% | 24 of 58 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 24 of 57 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Jack Marshman | 21 of 98 | 21% | 12 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 13 | 19 of 95 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Roberson | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Marshman | 13 of 52 | 25% | 8 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 11 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Roberson | 8 of 20 | 40% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Marshman | 8 of 31 | 25% | 4 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Roberson | 11 of 19 | 57% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 |
| Jack Marshman | 0 of 15 | 0% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Roman Kopylov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 3 | 61 of 124 | 49% | 69 of 132 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 62 of 160 | 38% | 80 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 22 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 1 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 26 of 57 | 45% | 36 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 2 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 31 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Marco Tulio | 0 | 14 of 42 | 33% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 61 of 124 | 49% | 46 of 97 | 12 of 17 | 3 of 10 | 46 of 102 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 17 |
| Marco Tulio | 62 of 160 | 38% | 28 of 105 | 18 of 34 | 16 of 21 | 62 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 22 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 7 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marco Tulio | 22 of 61 | 36% | 7 of 37 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 10 | 22 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 22 of 44 | 50% | 19 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Marco Tulio | 26 of 57 | 45% | 11 of 37 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 24 of 41 | 58% | 21 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Marco Tulio | 14 of 42 | 33% | 10 of 31 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tulio (-198), Kopylov (+164)
Round 1
It is a battle between two finish-first middleweights to move things along, with the loser dropping to a .500 record with the organization. The victor between Kopylov (14-5, 6-5 UFC) and Tulio (14-2, 2-1 UFC) will earn their first win in over a year. Referee Gasper Oliver will be there every step of the way, including the sporting glove touch he watches to open things up.
Both men flirt with out-of-range strikes to get in on one another, and it is Tulio who lands first with a sweeping low kick. Kopylov walks him down but is not ready to engage yet, so Tulio jams him up with a body shot. Kopylov offers up his own calf kick, answered immediately by the Brazilian. Kopylov parries an overhand right and rips a kick to the ribs. Tulio jabs his way forward, following with one to the stomach and just evading an overhand right. Tulio chews up the front leg with kicks that form a welt on his foe’s front leg. Tulio keeps working the calf, and he keeps his hands up when Kopylov storms him with four punches that largely careen off his gloves and arms.
Tulio snaps the head back with a long right hand, and he reaches another to the body as Kopylov retreats. Kopylov comes up short with a high kick, and he lunges out with a left hand but is met with a stern right to the ribs. Tulio sneaks a head kick behind it, and Kopylov tanks it and plods forward. Kopylov retaliates with a body shot, but it is one-and-done as Tulio parries a high kick after it. Kopylov drives a one-two down the middle, one that might have knocked out small fry he faced in the past but is not nearly enough to get more than Tulio’s attention. Kopylov leaps with a knee, and Tulio pushes him to the side and belts him with a few punches before the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tulio
Round 2
They touch gloves to get going again, flashing their jabs in alternating stances. Kopylov drills Tulio with a check hook as Tulio is about to come in, and the Brazilian wears it well and is back to working the front leg before long. Kopylov lashes out with a one-two, seemingly getting the time of the advancing Brazilian and timing his explosions well. Tulio goes to the body and head, and Kopylov is quick to counter. Kopylov drills a kick to the side that lands with an audible thud, and hands are subsequently traded. Tulio kicks out the lead leg as Kopylov is about to throw, and he wings a head kick on the other side. Kopylov starts to leak from a wound on his right cheek, but he pays it no mind as he wants to throw hands. He slips on the way in, and dances away when Tulio spins but does not let anything go after it.
Tulio rifles off a right hand down Broadway, and his left hand opens up the cut on Kopylov’s face much more. There is another gash on Kopylov’s eyebrow, and he transforms to a horror movie as blood streams down his face. Tulio is able to take advantage of the damage and snaps out a hard right hand, but he walks directly into the inferno that is suddenly raging inside of Kopylov. Kopylov unleashes a pair of fiery fists that knock Tulio off his feet. Kopylov chases after the Brazilian, who is able to get back to his feet, and swings his way into a clinch. Rather than doing more damage or ending the fight, Kopylov just holds on until the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 3
The 185ers touch gloves to get going, and Kopylov goes hellbent for leather as soon as Oliver says go. Blasting Tulio in the face with a short but devastating combination, he hurts and knocks the Brazilian down at the end of a vicious left hand early on. As he plans on punishing Tulio further, Kopylov elects to take the fight down. Completing a solid double-leg takedown, Kopylov grounds Tulio, but he just holds him there again. Tulio slowly, methodically works back to his feet without absorbing much more offense, and he starts to stalk Kopylov again.
Tulio jabs at the wound on Kopylov’s face, planting a kick on his ribs and eating a left hand over the top for his effort. Kopylov stands firm when Tulio engages, forcing the Brazilian to backpedal after a trio of punches come flying. Tulio jabs the stomach with the ball of his foot outstretched, and his head kick comes up just short. They trade hands, with Kopylov getting the better of the exchanges. Tulio spins to let go with a back kick, and Kopylov keeps him honest with a body kick and head kick. Tulio swings his fists to turn into a back fist, and he slugs Kopylov in the face with a big overhand right but cannot put him down as the buzzer sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Marco Tulio via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Marco Tulio, noting he is more well-rounded and can wrestle if needed. He thinks Tulio will shoot takedowns after being knocked out in his last fight. He mentions Tulio's grappling success against Yorsy Baraguri. He has doubts about Tulio's chin but expects him to use wrestling to avoid striking exchanges. He is fairly confident in this pick.
Angelo picks Marco Tulio because he has more ways to win, including grappling. He notes that Tulio has good wrestling and can take the fight to the ground if needed, while Roman Kopylov has no backup plan. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a good striker but believes Tulio's versatility will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Marco Tulio, noting Kopylov's recent lack of output and willingness. He acknowledges Kopylov could knock out Tulio, but trusts Tulio's volume and grappling upside. Brady predicts Tulio wins by decision, as Kopylov is tough and has never been knocked out, but Tulio should outwork him.
Cody picks Tulio, citing his volume and Kopylov's tendency to be outworked. He notes Tulio's high output and Kopylov's complacency. Cody expects Tulio to win by decision.
Connor also picks Kopylov, agreeing that Tulio lacks the sophistication to exploit Kopylov's weaknesses. He notes that the guys who beat Kopylov (Rodriguez, Costa) did so with diligent positional work, which Tulio doesn't have. Connor expects Tulio to look like he's winning for stretches, but Kopylov's power and counter-striking will eventually pay off.
Daniel picks Tulio, noting his confidence and edge on the mat despite a recent knockout loss. He believes Tulio will stand and bang and has a big advantage if he gets the fight to the ground.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 2. Tulio is a powerful striker (6.69 SLpM, 58% accuracy) with KO wins in two of his three UFC fights, while Kopylov has lost three of his last four and has been knocked out multiple times. Kopylov's takedown defense (88%) is excellent, but he tends to fade in striking exchanges (5.18 SApM). Tulio's pressure and power should be too much for Kopylov, who has a tendency to get hit. Expect Tulio to land a knockout in the first two rounds.
Jacob disagrees strongly, arguing that Kopylov is the better wrestler and that Marco Tulio cannot wrestle him. He points out that Gregory Rodriguez, a high-level wrestler, struggled to take Kopylov down. Jacob believes Kopylov is the more dangerous striker and durable, and that he should be the favorite. He likes the value on Kopylov as a dog.
Lucrative James leans towards Marco Tulio because he believes Tulio has a grappling advantage and better cardio. He notes that Kopylov has a history of low volume and gassing out, while Tulio mixes in wrestling and has more paths to victory. He predicts Tulio wins by knockout, though he acknowledges the fight is close and could go either way.
The host picks Kopylov as an underdog, believing he is the better striker and has the grappling to handle Tulio. He notes that Tulio is overhyped and hittable, and coming off a knockout loss may affect his confidence. He expects Kopylov to counter Tulio's forward pressure and potentially get a knockout. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent losses but sees this as a favorable matchup.
Paul leans Tulio but does not love laying chalk. He agrees with Cody's assessment but is not fully confident.
The MMA Guru picks Marco Tulio, citing Kopylov's recent poor performances against Paulo Costa and Gregory Rodriguez where he shut down after getting hit. He believes Tulio's pressure and momentum will lead to a TKO in round two. He notes Tulio's wins over Tong Gore and Usman Belgui show his finishing ability.
Zane picks Kopylov hesitantly. He notes that Kopylov has become a better counter striker and has shown he can solve pressure fighters, as seen in the Curtis fight. However, Kopylov is terrible going backwards and could struggle if Tulio pressures effectively. Zane thinks Tulio's predictability and lack of sophistication will allow Kopylov to find openings, but it's a tough call.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 52 of 105 | 49% | 54 of 109 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 90 of 173 | 52% | 91 of 174 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 70 | 52% | 38 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 33 of 68 | 48% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 52 of 105 | 49% | 35 of 80 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 9 | 51 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 90 of 173 | 52% | 59 of 133 | 28 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 84 of 164 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 9 of 16 | 56% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 20 of 35 | 57% | 12 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 36 | 63% | 20 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 70 | 52% | 26 of 55 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 62 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 53 | 37% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 33 of 68 | 48% | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodrigues (-166), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Rodrigues probes with a right to the body. The Brazilian counters a kick with a crisp straight right. Another straight right splits the guard of Kopylov. Rodrigues follows a right hand with a hard body kick. Rodrigues continues to fire off his right hand and now he tries a takedown, which Kopylov defends. Kopylov with a straight left to the body, his first meaningful offense of the fight. Rodrigues with a hard body kick and then a right to the body as well. Every punch from Rodrigues is taking effect so far. Kopylov attacks the lead leg and Rodrigues answers with an inside leg kick. Rodrigues just misses a head kick. The Brazilian steps in with a knee to the body and he shoots for a takedown. Kopylov reverses it with a hip toss. He stands over Rodrigues as time ticks down, but he doesn’t land anything of note before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 2
Rodrigues opens with a 1-2. Kopylov lands a left, but Rodrigues answers. They go to the ground and Kopylov scrambles out of a leg lock. Rodrigues shoots again against the fence, but Kopylov shoves him away. Rodrigues backs up Kopylov with a knee to the body. Kopylov sticks a jab. Rodrigues with a jab of his own. Rodrigues stalks his opponent, drawing mbig movements with feints. Rodrigues with a solid jab. Kopylov catches a kick and fires off a series of right hands before releasing the limb. Rodrigues moves in behind a right hand. Rodrigues marches forward, throwing straight punches, sometimes mixing in body shots. Kopylov with a left to the body. Rodrigues follows a knee with a series of hard right hands. “Robocop” keeps the pressure on as Kopylov remains on his bike. Rodrigues lands a jab followed by a right to the body. Kopylov remains on the defensive. Rodrigues lands a body kick. Kopylov catches it and shoves his foe down. A right by Rodrigues makes Kopylov stumble. Rodrigues stalks the Russian, landing heavy blows along the way. Kopylov unleashes a quick head kick, but it can’t quite find the mark. They clinch late in the round. Rodrigues lands a knee and misses a spinning attack as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodrigues
Round 3
Rodrigues pumps his jab. Kopylov probes with a leg kick. Another jab lands for the Brazilian. Kopylov flicks out a jab but eats a right hand. Kopylov leaps in with a left that briefly buckles Rodrigues. Rodrigues recovers quickly, but that was Kopylov’s best attack so far. Rodrigues goes back to the well with a powerful 1-2. “Robocop” follows up with a right to the body, then a high kick that slams off Kopylov’s arm. Kopylov presses forward and lands a left to the body. Kopylov is on the attack, and he leaps in with another left. Rodrigues fires a right to the body. They trade on the inside and both men land. Rodrigues chops away with low kicks. Rodrigues stays busy with 1-2s, but Kopylov with another rapid left hand that finds the mark. Rodrigues continues to attack the body with his right hand while also throwing 1-2s upstairs. Kopylov is still hunting for that left hand. Kopylov fires another head kick, but Rodrigues blocks it. A quick right hand finds the mark for the Russian. Kopylov can’t get through with a head kick but ends the contest with a spinning backfist.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Rodrigues)
The Official Result
Gregory Rodrigues def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Gregory Rodrigues, citing his well-rounded skills, power, and BJJ black belt. He believes Rodrigues will use takedowns to control the fight, similar to his win over Christian Leroy Duncan. He notes Roman Kopylov is a good kickboxer but vulnerable to grappling. Angelo's only concern is Rodrigues' tendency to bleed easily.
Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues, highlighting his elite jiu-jitsu and ground game, which he believes will be too much for Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling. He notes Kopylov was submitted by a kickboxer and dominated on the ground by Albert Duraev. However, Brady worries about Rodrigues's tendency to stand and trade, given his questionable chin (four knockout losses). He predicts a first-round submission if Rodrigues uses his grappling, but acknowledges the risk of a knockout loss if he brawls.
Cody picks Rodrigues, citing his power, wrestling, and aggression. He notes that Kopylov has struggled against grapplers and has poor takedown defense. Cody believes that Rodrigues will pressure Kopylov, take him down, and either finish or win a decision. He also mentions that Rodrigues has looked good in recent fights and is a reliable favorite.
Connor picks Kopylov but calls it a coin flip. He notes that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can target all levels and that Rodrigues gives openings for low kicks and head kicks. However, he acknowledges that Rodrigues has excellent wrestling and top game, and that Kopylov's only way to stop the pressure is to kill Rodrigues on the counter.
Daniel favors Rodrigues despite disliking his unsportsmanlike follow-up punch in his last fight. He believes Rodrigues has more ways to win, with power in his hands and world-class jiu-jitsu, while Kopylov has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He also questions Kopylov's chin and ability to handle pressure.
Lucrative James picks Roman Kopylov to win by knockout, going against the grain. He believes Kopylov's fast boxing and head kicks can exploit Rodrigues' poor chin and cardio. He notes Rodrigues' grappling advantage but thinks Kopylov's takedown defense will hold up early, allowing him to land a knockout. He acknowledges this is a risky pick but sees value in the underdog.
Rodriguez is surprisingly not a bigger favorite. He walks Kopylov down like Paulo Costa did, throws big shots, gets his respect, and closes the show with a knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Rodrigues is a BJJ black belt with power and that Kopylov has gassed when taken down. He points out that Kopylov's last win was against a faded Paulo Costa and that he has been submitted by grapplers. Paul thinks Rodrigues will control the fight and win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Gregory Rodrigues to win by TKO in round one or two. He highlights Rodrigues' pressure, power, and body work, which should overwhelm Kopylov, who has shown vulnerability to pressure. Kopylov's long torso makes him susceptible to body shots, and Rodrigues' recent KO win over Jack Hermansson shows his form. The Guru expects an early finish.
Zane picks Rodrigues, citing his relentless pressure and power. He acknowledges that Kopylov is a sharpshooter who can stop Rodrigues with counters, but believes Rodrigues will likely get the driver's seat and crush Kopylov. Zane notes that Kopylov falls apart when pressured hard enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 1 | 99 of 159 | 62% | 102 of 162 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 48 of 104 | 46% | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 1 | 34 of 54 | 62% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paulo Costa | 99 of 159 | 62% | 34 of 89 | 41 of 46 | 24 of 24 | 87 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 48 of 104 | 46% | 29 of 79 | 14 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 48 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paulo Costa | 34 of 54 | 62% | 13 of 33 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 |
| Roman Kopylov | 11 of 27 | 40% | 5 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Paulo Costa | 32 of 57 | 56% | 10 of 31 | 18 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 32 | 50% | 9 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Paulo Costa | 33 of 48 | 68% | 11 of 25 | 16 of 17 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roman Kopylov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 15 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-245), Costa (+200)
Round 1
Without a win since 2022, and no knockout victories in over seven years, Costa (14-4, 6-4 UFC) is back in the Octagon after a while away planning on getting a little more green on his ledger. Standing in his way will be fellow knockout artist Kopylov (14-3, 6-3 UFC), with the heavy-hitting middleweights combining for 23 strike stoppages in their 28 pro wins. Referee Herb Dean will don his proverbial hard hat and try to avoid any errant swings. The fighters do not touch gloves.
Costa wants to party immediately, surging into action with punches and kicks to put the Russian on his back foot. Kopylov responds with a left hand that reddens the face of his opponent, and he gets caught with a right hand to sustain a little damage on his mug as well. Costa scores a kick to the inner thigh, bouncing in and out and just brushing the ear with a right hand. “Borrachinha” whips a kick to the ribs after it, and the two men catch one another with single punches. Kopylov recovers first, bouncing in to kick Costa in the stomach. He then kicks the calf, checking one coming back his direction. Costa jabs and opens up with a left hook, with his right hand chambered back ready to go.
Costa works the inside and outside of his foe’s front leg, and Kopylov times one kick to go upstairs with a left hand. Costa drives a right hand to the sternum, and his head kick shakes the hair of the Russian without causing much damage otherwise. He does hammer Kopylov’s front leg with another calf kick, and he goes on the other side to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov drills the midsection with a fierce kick, parrying a high kick aimed at his dome and pushing Costa back with a pair of punches. Costa goes to the body multiple times, chaining a right hand behind it that dislodges Kopylov’s mouthpiece and dropping him to his knees. Costa hammers the hurt Russian with short but powerful punches, and Kopylov stands up and circles away while Dean collects his mouthpiece. Dean finds the right moment to give Kopylov his gumshield back, and Kopylov thanks him by landing once more on the Brazilian before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
As the second round begins, coach and commentator Din Thomas issues pungent criticisms towards Kopylov’s corner for their questionable advice about how Kopylov was succeeding. When the fighters get going in Round 2, Costa is quick to get in his groove, making Kopylov react every time he throws. This frees Costa up to pick his shots, measuring targets to the body and head when finding openings. The power of Costa makes Kopylov think twice about swinging more than once in a row, as he digs two kicks to the body. Costa rifles a right hand down the middle, walking the Russian down to club him a few more times.
Costa dips and rips an uppercut that catches Kopylov off-guard, but it is his straight right hand that damages Kopylov. Costa blasts the body with a kick, not selling out to force a finish as his power strikes are breaking Kopylov down. Costa goes from body shots to big right hands, and Kopylov is stuck not knowing what to do. He briefly presents in a traditional martial arts stance with his elbow high, but Costa pushes that out of the way. Kopylov thanks him for this with a snappy jab, but it is a single shot as Costa evades anything else. Costa picks and pokes with the most painful seeming jabs and front kicks one can imagine, as his teep kick actually lifts Kopylov off the ground once. He chops down the leg a bit more like a lumberjack, and his body work opens up big rights. Kopylov takes body shots on his way in, breaking up what he wants to do other than a reverse crescent kick. Costa marches through the kicks and punches the Russian square in the face. The round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
Costa marches out to the center of the Octagon to further establish dominance, hammering his Russian adversary’s front with a few kicks. Kopylov splits the guard when leaping in, but Costa is able to back off and wail on him with kicks to any target. Kopylov catches Costa off-balance with another blitz, only for Costa to rebound off the wire and jump forward to clip Kopylov again. The two hand-fight while in opposing stances, with Kopylov kicking the ribs and punching high as Costa appears to be slowing. “Borrachinha” attacks the body and counters a rushing Kopylov with a right hand, and he points at the Russian after tagging him. Costa loads up with a right to the body and then a right to the head. Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a massive right hand that stings Costa, but Costa wags his finger at him.
The mere wag of his finger dissuades Kopylov from diving in to keep attacking, allowing Costa to shake off any cobwebs and launch additional right hands to the busted nose and swollen midsection. Kopylov rifles a left hand up top, standing straight up and eating a low kick. He goes after the Brazilian, lobbing short combos in punches as Costa sticks his tongue out at him. This encourages Kopylov to throw more, only to get caught and backed off by body shots from Costa. The former title challenger shoots for a single, bailing on it and trying a second time so he can knee Kopylov in the liver. Kopylov springs forward behind a crisp right hand, only to slow down right in front of Costa and take right hands on the eye socket. Kopylov swings hard, and Costa rushes towards him to get a clinch. When he lets it go, he strikes the body and staggers Kopylov with a massive overhand right. The Russian is tough as old beef jerky, who bounces back and goes for broke as the fight concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Costa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa (30-27 Costa)
The Official Result
Paulo Costa def. Roman Kopylov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, reasoning that in a striking match, Kopylov is the better striker. He doubts Paulo Costa will use his grappling, as he has been a brawler recently. He notes Costa's durability and output but believes Kopylov's technical striking will win.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov, criticizing Paulo Costa's lack of effort and decline since 2019. He notes Kopylov has improved his striking and wrestling, while Costa has regressed. He predicts Kopylov wins by late finish or decision.
Connor picks Kopylov because he believes Costa's current style is vulnerable to a dynamic kicking game. He notes that Costa has not been the same pressure fighter since the Adesanya fight and struggles against opponents who use long-range weapons. Kopylov's ability to pressure and chain combinations on the front foot is seen as a nightmare for Costa's hesitant approach.
The host acknowledges Costa is a wild card, making it difficult to determine whether to bet on Kopylov. He expects Kopylov to win, utilizing grappling and striking to win on the scorecards, but the hesitation is due to Costa's unpredictability.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Paulo Costa, predicting a decision win. He criticizes Costa's inactivity and lack of finishing ability, noting that he rarely punches opponents in the face anymore. Kopylov is described as busier and more active, with a reach advantage. The Guru believes Kopylov will pepper Costa with strikes and possibly land head kicks, while Costa's full-force but ineffective style will not be enough. He also mentions a prop bet that Costa will land less than 63.5 significant strikes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Kopylov's dynamic all-levels kicking game at range and pace is the dagger for Costa's current style. He notes that Costa can still fight in bursts but doesn't trust him to show up the right way. He also mentions that Kopylov's pressure will force Costa to fight, which could lead to a fun but dangerous fight for Costa.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 142 of 261 | 54% | 146 of 265 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 130 of 307 | 42% | 133 of 310 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 48 of 110 | 43% | 48 of 110 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 104 | 55% | 59 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 38 of 96 | 39% | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 74 | 56% | 45 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 44 of 101 | 43% | 47 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 142 of 261 | 54% | 107 of 204 | 30 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 142 of 261 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 130 of 307 | 42% | 91 of 266 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 25 | 124 of 300 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 83 | 50% | 32 of 62 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 48 of 110 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 46 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 58 of 104 | 55% | 42 of 78 | 14 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 38 of 96 | 39% | 25 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 74 | 56% | 33 of 64 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 44 of 101 | 43% | 33 of 90 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.
Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.
Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.
Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.
Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.
Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.
Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.
Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.
The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.
Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 105 | 55% | 114 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 41 of 71 | 57% | 74 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 34 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 58 of 105 | 55% | 18 of 52 | 24 of 30 | 16 of 23 | 51 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| César Almeida | 41 of 71 | 57% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 12 of 17 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| César Almeida | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 36 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 14 of 21 | 66% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)
Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.
Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.
Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.
Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.
The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.
Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 35 of 57 | 61% | 41 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Hernandez | 34 of 77 | 44% | 28 of 68 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 65 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Roman Kopylov | 35 of 57 | 61% | 21 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Hernandez | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 16 of 29 | 55% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Anthony Hernandez | 14 of 35 | 40% | 12 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Roman Kopylov | 19 of 28 | 67% | 13 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Kopylov (+170)
Round 1
To kick off the main card, two middleweights that struggled early on in their UFC tenures only to figure things out as they went along will come crashing into one another. One of these four-fight win streaks will come to a grinding halt, whether it is wild submission specialist Hernandez (11-2, 1 NC; 5-2 UFC) or knockout artist Kopylov (12-2, 4-2 UFC). In their last eight outings, the two men have combined for seven finishes, so referee Jason Herzog needs to be on his A-game from here on out. There is a show of respect as the two decide to touch gloves before engaging. The two toss leg kicks at one another to immediately engage, and Hernandez dives forward after a low leg only to get stood up by the Russian. Hernandez threatens with another takedown to keep Kopylov guessing, and when that comes up short, Kopylov kicks him in the lead calf. Kopylov intercepts Hernandez coming in with a straight left hand, and he lands a solid body kick that draws a wince out of “Fluffy.” Kopylov just misses with a massive head kick, and Hernandez continues to put his foot on the gas even if he is throwing far less volume. Kopylov scores another body kick, and Hernandez races at him to get hold of a takedown, but that is also rebuffed. Kopylov bounces off and drives a one-two on the chin, and Hernandez tries to fires back and reaches him with an overhand right. Kopylov gets off a low kick and a right hand over the top, and his body kick that follows lands with emphasis. Kopylov remains busy even when on his bike, and he stops only to defend a single from “Fluffy.” Hernandez drags his man to one knee, but he cannot keep him there. Kopylov jabs until he is backed off from a right hand, and Hernandez gives chase and scores a right hook before diving after a double. Kopylov defends against it, and Hernandez changes to a single as he pushes Kopylov into the wall. Kopylov keeps his balance despite the numerous attempts, and he bounces off the fence to stay on his feet when Hernandez redoubles his effort. Hernandez doggedly looks for takedowns, and when stood up, he rips an elbow before shooting low again. Kopylov thwarts him, so Hernandez changes his strategy to just try to toss him down with a body lock. Kopylov spins all the way around but does not go down, and Hernandez knees him high and elbows him a few times before one final shot at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and Hernandez reaches out early with a swatting right hand. Kopylov retaliates with a thudding kick to the ribs, and Hernandez darts forward to jab the body. Kopylov digs a left to the body, and Hernandez grins but might have been hurt with it. Hernandez continues to pour on his pressure and offense, walking through shots and allowing himself to get hit so he can strike back. Kopylov stuns him with a body kick, and he lands a few additional shots, fires off a head kick that bounces off the guard and scores one more kick to the ribs. Hernandez sticks his tongue out, and he wades forward for a takedown. Kopylov plants his shin on Hernandez’ belly while Hernandez is shooting, and Hernandez partially gets Kopylov down but cannot quite ground him completely. Hernandez gets stonewalled, and he threatens with a guillotine before dropping down to scoop up the Russian’s legs and plat him on the mat. Hernandez instantly starts fishing for a neck crank, with a rear-naked choke grip not in play. Kopylov defends the hands, but Hernandez wraps both hooks around the waist and squeezes with all his might and pulls back. Kopylov is in grave danger, and he toughs it out and signals a thumbs-up to show he is still in it. Hernandez sees this gesture and adjusts his grip to the other side, where his forearm slices beneath the chin. This time, it is done, and Hernandez knows it as he grins to the camera and nods. Hernandez squeezes and waits, and Kopylov thinks about going out on his shield but taps out instead. An elated Hernandez points to his corner as soon as he releases the grip, and he chucks his mouthpiece in a celebratory gesture after a big victory.
The Official Result
Anthony Hernandez def. Roman Kopylov R2 3:23 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov as a dog, citing his superior striking and improved takedown defense. He notes Hernandez averages seven takedowns per fight but struggles to hold people down. He expects Kopylov to make Hernandez pay for every entry and potentially finish. He plans a small bet on Kopylov and may bet the under if a 2.5 round line is available.
Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez to win by second-round submission, specifically an anaconda choke. He highlights Hernandez's incredible wrestling (6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes) and cardio, and notes Kopylov's poor ground game as seen in losses to du Plessis and Roberson. He warns that Hernandez must avoid Kopylov's body attacks, which have hurt him in the past, but expects him to wrestle early and break Kopylov.
Cody leans toward Kopylov as a dog, noting his technical striking and improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He questions whether Hernandez can get takedowns early and often. He sees value in Kopylov at plus money, but admits he's not fully confident pre-fight.
Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Anthony Hernandez, calling it a slam dunk. He highlights Hernandez's relentless pressure wrestling, cardio, and submission skills, noting he has taken down and submitted high-level grapplers like Rodolfo Vieira. He believes Kopylov's takedown defense is untested and that he gasses, while Hernandez will wear him down and finish him. He thinks the true price should be -350 to -400.
Hernandez has a grapple-heavy, pressure style that breaks opponents. Kopylov is dangerous with combinations but Hernandez will push him to the cage, chain wrestle, and eventually break him. Expects a third-round submission.
Paul picks Hernandez, comparing him to Jacob Malkoun for his relentless wrestling and cardio. He notes Hernandez's ability to chain-wrestle and submit opponents, as seen against Rodolfo Vieira and Josh Fremd. He questions Kopylov's takedown defense against a high-volume wrestler, noting that Kopylov has gassed in fights. He believes Hernandez will grind on Kopylov and eventually get a finish or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Anthony Hernandez, citing his underrated grappling and pace. He notes Kopylov was outgrappled by Cole Roberson and had moments of struggle against lesser opponents. He believes Hernandez's cardio and wrestling will overwhelm Kopylov, predicting a finish in round two or three. He also mentions Kopylov's body is open for body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 1 | 49 of 84 | 58% | 54 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 38 of 116 | 32% | 38 of 116 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 22 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 1 | 22 of 43 | 51% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Josh Fremd | 0 | 16 of 58 | 27% | 16 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 49 of 84 | 58% | 23 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 17 of 18 | 47 of 80 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 38 of 116 | 32% | 18 of 81 | 8 of 13 | 12 of 22 | 37 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 27 of 41 | 65% | 8 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 14 | 25 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 22 of 58 | 37% | 5 of 37 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 21 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 22 of 43 | 51% | 15 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Fremd | 16 of 58 | 27% | 13 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 8 | 16 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kopylov (-355), Fremd (+280)
Round 1
Middleweights are next on the docket, as Kopylov (11-2, 3-2 UFC) tries to make it four wins in a row at 185 pounds. A Factory X representative, Fremd (11-4, 2-2 UFC) headlined multiple Legacy Fighting Alliance events prior to his signing with the UFC in 2022. Mark Smith answers the call as the third man in the cage. Fremd pumps out his jab from the start, eats a few leg kicks and scores with some shin to skin contact to the body. Kopylov continues to target the lead leg with kicks and seems content to allow the fight to come to him. A low blow from Fremd results in a brief pause before they resume their dance in the center of the cage. Fremd sneaks in front kick to the body and backs up the Russian with a multi-strike burst of hands and feet. Kopylov connects with a surgical two-punch combination. He seems to be getting more and more comfortable in the pocket. Fremd shoots on a single-leg but gets nowhere. Kopylov breaks away with punches, takes the center of the cage and uncorks his educated hands. He follows them with a kick to the body. Momentum is starting to turn here. Fremd shoots on another takedown attempt with 20 seconds left, only to get denied. Kopylov lands with a spinning backfist and an uppercut to close the round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
Kopylov drives a left hand into the body, follows with an uppercut and goes back upstairs with his hands, knocking Fremd off-balance. Fremd paws with his jab and whiffs on a takedown, then eats a head kick. Damage has started to build on his face and his body. Kopylov denies a single-leg takedown, pushes away the American. Fremd’s mouth is wide open, likely due to difficulty breathing through a bloody nose. Kopylov picks his shots but catches another kick low. Smith pauses the action and issues another warning. Kopylov goes to the body and head with a beautiful combination. He backs away and narrowly misses a lunging right uppercut. A savage kick to the body forces Fremd to drop his hands. Kopylov wisely follows with a head kick.
A left hook to the liver drops Fremd to all fours and results in an immediate stoppage
.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Josh Fremd—KO (Punch to the Body) 4:44 R2
Angelo is very confident in Roman Kopylov, calling him the best value on the card at -275. He highlights Kopylov's high-level kickboxing and improved takedown defense. He dismisses Josh Fremd's grappling threat, noting Fremd struggled to take down Jamie Pickett. He believes Kopylov's striking is next level and Fremd cannot hang on the feet.
Big Brady likes Kopylov to win, citing his improved striking, durability, and body work. He notes Kopylov has been training in Dagestan to improve his wrestling and has looked better each fight. He expects Kopylov to stuff takedowns, break Fremd down with body shots, and finish him in the second or third round. He is less confident at the current minus 400 odds but still picks the win.
Cody picks Kopylov confidently, detailing his improved takedown defense after training in Dagestan. He notes Kopylov's durability, power, and recent finishes. He is concerned about Fremd's cardio and wrestling but believes Kopylov will win, possibly by knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Roman Kopylov but is not interested at the current odds of minus-410, as the line opened at minus-140. He praises Kopylov's clean hands, precise striking, and improved takedown defense, but notes that Josh Fremd has not yet shown his regional form in the UFC. Levi believes Kopylov will win but considers it a dog-or-pass situation at these prices.
Fremd is a Factory X product with improving grappling, cage pushing, and submission threats. Kopylov has cardio issues and has been slowing down in fights. Fremd should close the distance, wear on Kopylov with takedowns and clinch work, and potentially get a second or third round finish. I like the decision prop or a late finish for Fremd at plus 240.
Paul picks Kopylov but notes the minus 405 line is too high to bet. He acknowledges Kopylov's recent improvements in takedown defense and striking, and sees him as the clear winner. He mentions Fremd's recent weight miss and poor performance against Jamie Pickett.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Josh Fremd, stating Kopylov is at a different class. He praises Kopylov's recent performances, including a head kick KO of Claudio Ribeiro, and believes he has improved his wrestling. He criticizes Fremd's lack of power and ability to win a gritty fight. He predicts a late second or third round TKO for Kopylov.
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