UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by knockout, citing Aspinall's excellent striking volume (7.43 sig strikes/min, 66% accuracy) and power. He acknowledges question marks about Aspinall's takedown defense and cardio beyond the first round, but believes Spivac's short notice and questionable cardio will prevent him from wrestling effectively for three rounds. Brady notes Spivac has been knocked out before (by Walt Harris) and expects Aspinall to finish him either early or late as Spivac gasses. He cautions against parlays this week due to close fights.

Cody picks Aspinall but suggests betting Spivac live after the first round, expecting Aspinall to dominate early and the line to swell. He notes Aspinall's cardio concerns and Spivac's ability to fight deep, but thinks Spivac looked awful against Olenyk and is on short notice. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much early, but if it goes past round one, Spivac could take over.

I'm fading Aspinall because his cardio is suspect—he gassed against Stuart Austin and slowed against Arlovski. Spivak has shown he can go deep into fights, like against Carlos Felipe. Aspinall's grappling defense is questionable; he got submitted by Austin and looked bad on his back. Spivak keeps a high pace and can wrestle. If Aspinall doesn't finish early, Spivak will take over. I bet Spivak on the moneyline and like Spivak by decision at +500.

Paul is staying away from this fight, citing the big juice on heavyweights and the uncertainty of both young fighters. He mentions Aspinall's cardio issues and Spivac's poor performance against Olenyk, but doesn't commit to a pick. He notes the prop 'Aspinall by KO' is -120 but still doesn't want to bet.

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round TKO. He believes Aspinall's size, athleticism, and jiu-jitsu black belt will prevent Spivac from grinding him out. He notes Spivac starts slow and makes mistakes on the feet early, and on short notice, Spivac's cardio will be compromised. He compares it to Walt Harris's TKO of Spivac.

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by knockout, favoring Morono's higher volume (5.05 sig strikes/min) and positive strike differential. He notes Zawada is dangerous with power and submissions, but has poor takedown defense and has been controlled on the ground. Brady thinks Morono can take Zawada down if needed and has never been submitted. He expects Morono's volume and striking to be the difference, leading to a knockout win.

Cody picks Morono by decision, citing Morono's higher volume and better striking. He notes Zawada's low volume and reliance on takedowns, but thinks Morono's BJJ is good enough to defend and get back up. He expects a close fight going the distance and likes the over 2.5 rounds.

I think Morono is the better fighter here—he keeps an incredibly high pace, is durable, and has beaten better competition. Zawada is defensively void and easy to hit. However, I have concerns about Morono's wrestling; he got taken down multiple times by Max Griffin. But Zawada's takedowns aren't elite, and Morono has good jiu-jitsu to get back up. I think Morono wins by decision, and the fight goes the distance. I like the over 2.5 rounds and Morono by decision.

Paul sees it as a close to pick'em fight and is staying away. He notes Morono's durability issues and Zawada's low volume, but thinks if you got Zawada at +155 earlier it's a good shot. He doesn't make a firm pick.

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He believes Morono is tough and can grind out a win, despite taking the fight on short notice. He notes Zawada's submission win over a Nurmagomedov but thinks Morono's durability and experience will carry him to a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout, but with low confidence due to Rountree's inconsistency. He notes Rountree has tremendous power but sometimes fails to show up (e.g., loss to Marcin Prachnio). Bukauskas is hittable (50% striking defense) and chinny, making him a good target for Rountree's power. However, Brady is not betting Rountree because of the unpredictability.

Cody picks Bukauskas but suggests waiting for a live line after the first round. He notes Rountree's power and first-round threat, but thinks Bukauskas has better cardio and reach, and can survive the initial onslaught. He expects Bukauskas to take over in later rounds if he survives round one.

I don't trust Rountree in a fight that goes long because his cardio fades, but he's dangerous early with fast hands and hard kicks. Bukauskas has a shaky chin and is hittable. Rountree's knockdown rate is about 4.5%, and most of his wins come in round one. I think there's a 25-30% chance he puts Bukauskas out early. The plus 500 on Rountree round one is good value. I'm not betting the moneyline because if it goes to decision, Bukauskas likely wins.

Paul is uncertain, calling it a landmine fight. He notes Rountree's inconsistency and Bukauskas's defensive issues. He mentions Rountree by KO at +250 as a possible play but doesn't commit to a pick.

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas to win by decision. He questions Khalil Rountree's hunger after his performance against Marcin Prachnio, where Rountree seemed to lack drive. He believes Bukauskas, who trained with Jon Jones at Jackson Wink, has more desire and will out-volume Rountree with punches at range, mixing in grappling to gas Rountree out.

Big Brady picks Paddy Pimblett to win by decision, but is not confident. He thinks Pimblett's wrestling and strength will be key, as he can get takedowns more effectively than Vendramini (who has 8% takedown accuracy). Both are BJJ black belts, so submissions are unlikely. Brady favors Vendramini slightly on the feet but expects the fight to play out on the mat with Pimblett on top. He notes the odds seem off and should be closer to a pick'em.

Cody picks Vendramini as his first underdog, citing Pimblett's lack of activity, questionable competition, and reliance on grappling. He notes Vendramini's physical strength and decent grappling, which should neutralize Pimblett's best weapons. He expects a competitive fight and likes the over 2.5 rounds.

I don't rate Paddy Pimblett as a UFC-caliber fighter; his hype is overblown. He lost to Stevie Ray via heel hook and has only beaten low-level competition. Vendramini is a BJJ black belt with power in his hands and better striking. However, I have concerns about Vendramini's get-up game if Pimblett takes him down. But I think Vendramini's skill set is more translatable to the UFC. I lean Vendramini on the moneyline and like the over 2.5 rounds or goes the distance at plus money.

Paul is also on Vendramini, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Pimblett's hype and inactivity, and believes Vendramini has advantages in power and physicality. He has been waiting to bet Vendramini and is trying to get the best price.

The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett to win by first-round submission. He praises Pimblett's submission ability, stand-up, kicks, and cardio. He predicts Pimblett will use judo to take Vendramini down, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Vendramini's toughness and power but believes Pimblett's chin and experience will prevail.

Big Brady picks Molly McCann to win by decision, citing her superior striking accuracy (50% vs Kim's 34%) and volume. He notes Kim has a 10-inch reach advantage but doesn't use it effectively and misses a lot. McCann can also mix in takedowns against Kim, who has poor takedown defense (42%). Brady points out that McCann's losses have come against grapplers, while Kim is not a wrestler. He expects McCann to win a decision.

Cody slightly leans McCann, noting her wrestling and ground-and-pound against lower-level opposition. He acknowledges Kim's 10-inch reach advantage and better striking, but thinks McCann can get takedowns and grind out a decision. He is not confident and may flip depending on weigh-ins.

I like Kim here. She has a huge size advantage—10-inch reach and 3-inch height advantage. She's fought much better competition like Antonina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso and had moments standing with them. McCann's wins are over low-level opponents, and she lost to the only decent fighters she faced. Kim's takedown defense has been a concern, but McCann isn't a great wrestler and her control time is weak. I think Kim wins the stand-up easily and can even finish. I'm sprinkling Kim by KO at +1160.

Paul is high on Kim, calling her the best bet on the card. He cites the 10-inch reach advantage and Kim's superior striking. He doubts McCann can sustain wrestling for three rounds and thinks Kim will win on the feet. He plans to bet Kim.

The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann to win by close decision. He calls it a pick'em fight but trusts McCann's toughness and grit to push the pace and finish rounds strong. He notes McCann's wins over Ariane Lipski, Diana Belbita, and Priscila Cachoeira as evidence of her ability to grind out decisions. He expects a split decision 29-28.

Big Brady picks Jack Shore to win by third-round submission, very confident. He believes Shore is superior everywhere: better wrestling, better grappling (BJJ black belt), and better striking. Sholinian is sloppy on takedowns, hittable, and low volume. Coming in on short notice makes it even harder for Sholinian. Brady expects Shore to put on a pace and finish in the third round.

Cody is a big fan of Shore, citing his chain wrestling, durability, and never-say-die attitude. He thinks Shore outclasses Sholinian everywhere, especially in wrestling and boxing. He expects Shore to grind out a decision or get a late finish, and likes the over 2.5 rounds.

I'm all over Jack Shore. He's a much better grappler than Sholinian, and grappling is low variance. Shore is a finisher who actively looks for submissions and ground-and-pound. Sholinian's path to victory is control, but he's not on Shore's level. Even on the feet, I think Shore is better. I expect Shore to dominate and finish inside the distance. I like Shore inside the distance at -110 and Shore round 2 at +475.

Paul is not betting Shore at -510, finding the price too high. He acknowledges Shore's skills but is nervous about laying heavy juice. He prefers to stay away or consider the over 2.5 rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Jack Shore to win by second-round rear-naked choke. He praises Shore's grappling, comparing him to a Dagestani wrestler, and notes his technical and safe approach. He believes Shore's length and reactionary takedowns will be too much for Sholinian, who is a pressure fighter that walks into punishment. He expects Shore to dominate on the ground and get the submission.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by first-round knockout, very confident. He notes Jourdain has 100% finish rate and hits very hard, while Erosa is extremely hittable (absorbs 5.78 sig strikes/min, 50% striking defense) and has a weak chin (knocked out 5 times). Erosa is also coming in on short notice. Brady expects Jourdain to land a brutal knockout early.

Cody picks Jourdain by knockout, citing Jourdain's superior durability and power. He notes Erosa's suspect chin and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Jourdain will catch Erosa in a striking exchange, especially since Erosa is moving up in weight on short notice. He also mentions Jourdain's wrestling is poor but Erosa likely won't exploit it.

I lean Erosa here. He has a huge size advantage—4 inches of height and 5.5 inches of reach. He's fought much better competition and pushes a hellacious pace. Jourdain is dangerous early, but if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to take over. Erosa's chin is a concern, but Jourdain's cardio is unproven. I think if it goes 15 minutes, Erosa wins. I like Erosa on the moneyline and also the under 2.5 rounds because both guys are finishers.

Paul leans Jourdain but prefers the under 2.5 rounds. He expects fireworks and a finish, noting both fighters' styles. He is not confident in Jourdain at -190 and would rather bet the total.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain to win by first-round TKO. He believes Jourdain's compact, accurate striking will beat Erosa's wildness. He notes Erosa has been KO'd multiple times and is taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Jourdain will land a right hook as Erosa swings a left hand, putting him down for the finish.

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by third-round knockout, confident. He highlights Barriault's high volume (5.36 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage over Lungiambula, who has low output and poor striking defense. Barriault has solid takedown defense (72%) and get-up game, while Lungiambula may have early takedown success but will fade. Brady expects Barriault to overwhelm Lungiambula with volume and finish late.

Cody picks Barriault by decision, citing his improved cardio and volume since moving to Sanford MMA. He notes Lungiambula's low volume and reliance on takedowns, but thinks Barriault's takedown defense and scrambling will allow him to get back up and outwork Lungiambula. He expects a unanimous decision win.

I bet Barriault for a couple of units. Dalcha is explosive but only works in bursts; his output is low and predictable. Barriault has elite output, elite cardio, and ridiculous durability. He's shown he can get up from takedowns against good wrestlers. Dalcha's cardio is suspect, especially at 185. I expect Barriault to take over as the fight goes on and likely finish in round three or win a decision. I like Barriault by decision and Barriault round three.

Paul agrees with Cody, liking Barriault to get the job done. He notes Barriault's pace and volume, and thinks Lungiambula will either get tired or be knocked out. He sees Barriault winning by decision or late stoppage.

The MMA Guru picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He believes Barriault's granite chin, cardio, and pressure will overwhelm Lungiambula, who relies on a big overhand and has poor performances. He notes Barriault's experience and ability to push a pace, knee the legs, and punch the body. He thinks if Barriault avoids an early KO, he will dominate.