vs
-549 +460
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024 · Heavyweight · Completed
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Next Fight
Age 38
Height 6' 4"
Reach 84.0"
Weight 248 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 240 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jon Jones
4.38 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
1.89 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
95.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Stipe Miocic
4.67 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
4.01 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.74 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Jon Jones
Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
FanDuel +135
Submission
BetRivers +235
Decision
FanDuel +420
Stipe Miocic
Moneyline
BetRivers +460
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
BetMGM +3500
Decision
BetRivers +1500
Jon Jones - Fight History
WIN vs Stipe Miocic
TKO (spinning back kick and punches) R3 4:29 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 1 96 of 119 80% 104 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Stipe Miocic 0 37 of 89 41% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 42 of 48 87% 49 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Stipe Miocic 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 1 34 of 43 79% 35 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 96 of 119 80% 70 of 91 16 of 18 10 of 10 54 of 70 2 of 3 40 of 46
Stipe Miocic 37 of 89 41% 24 of 75 7 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 83 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 42 of 48 87% 36 of 42 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 42
Stipe Miocic 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Jon Jones 20 of 28 71% 9 of 16 7 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 16 of 37 43% 9 of 29 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 34 of 43 79% 25 of 33 5 of 6 4 of 4 30 of 37 1 of 2 3 of 4
Stipe Miocic 15 of 39 38% 12 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.

Angelo comments on the odds, saying Jones at -700 is a good value and should be -1500.
"Jon Jones is going to win this fight I think he makes it look easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.

Jon Jones over 40.5 significant strikes
"give me Jon Jones here to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"I got Jones by decision the over two and a half but again this is a fun fight but it's it's not the Crown Jewel on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.

Jones by submission or TKO; fight may be slow early then finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.

"I do have to go with Jones here to just come out here and uh show why he's one of the most dominant fighters to ever do it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm taking Jon Jones like no I it's it's tragic that this is like the fight... there's no reason to like stie miic in this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm Jon Jones all the way in this one... he's 100% gonna win this fight by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.

wins inside the distance, wins in first two rounds
"I'm taking Jon Jones to win here. I'm taking Jon Jones to win inside the distance here and I'm taking Jon Jones to win within the first two rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jon Jones

The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.

submission
"I do believe Jones will be able to continue his dominant ways just as he showcased against sraon last time around and I think we'll see him get to his grappl and keep mius on his back dominate him from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would think that Jones has got more than enough left in the tank to just pinpoint this guy and uh you know win a 4946 type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.

finish in first or second round, guillotine choke
"I'm going to go Jon Jones by finish in the first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.

Jones finishes inside the distance, likely submission or TKO; fight may be a slog early then quick finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
WIN vs Ciryl Gane
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:04 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 14 2 of 2 100% 1 0 0:57
Ciryl Gane 0 6 of 8 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 5 of 10 50% 2 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ciryl Gane 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Heavyweight Title Fight: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jones (-155), Gane (+135)

Round 1
This one is for all the marbles. The heavyweight strap is officially on the line with the relinquishment of Francis Ngannou’s heavyweight crown and his subsequent release. The challengers for the vacant strap will be former light heavyweight king Jones (26-1, 1 NC; 20-1, 1 NC UFC), who is taking his first trip up to this division and weighed 248 pounds, against ex-interim champ Gane (11-1, 8-1 UFC). Surprising many, Gane checked in a half pound lighter than Jones. These big men have 25 minutes to work and establish themselves, and referee Marc Goddard will receive the final assignment of the night. After a touch of gloves and Gane patting Jones’ chest, it’s on. Jones comes out of his corner like usual, climbing upright, and the two throw at one another immediately. Jones fires a punch up top, and Gane responds with a low kick that slams into Jones’ cup and causes a pause in the first 10 seconds of the bout. Jones takes 30 seconds to clear it out, and they get back to action. Jones takes a low kick to stick the Frenchman with a right hand, and he walks Gane down firing at him. Jones sweeps low with a kick, and Gane replies with a similar blow. Jones walks through a jab and marches Gane down, pressuring the Frenchman and no-selling any strikes that land on him. Jones swings with a big body shot that misses the mark, and when Gane fires off a big right hand, Jones ducks under and trips Gane out to drop him to his knees and down. Gane fights back up to his knees, and Jones slips a hook in around the side while Gane works to his feet. Jones pulls Gane down, and he sits on Gane’s knees and suddenly grips with a guillotine choke that is crushing around Gane’s noggin. Jones lets go and resets his grip to slip his forearm under the chin, and he presses his full body weight on the submission to completely fasten the guillotine. Gane is shocked, his eyes wide open, and he frantically taps out before he goes out. Jones has done it! He is a two-division UFC champion, and he made it look easy against a phenomenal opponent. His status as one of the greatest if not the greatest of all time is fully cemented with this victory, which clocked in around two minutes as his quickest since he smashed Vladimir Matyushenko in 2010. After thanking his family and training partners, Jones has one name in mind: Stipe Miocic, for International Fight Week in July. We will absolutely be here should that materialize, and we hope you are too. What a night.

The Official Result
Jon Jones def. Ciryl Gane R1 2:04 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo leans towards Ciryl Gane due to Jon Jones' three-year layoff, weight gain, and poor performance in his last fight. He notes that Gane is a technical striker with great footwork and that Jones struggled with wrestling against Dominick Reyes. Angelo is not betting on this fight.

"I think I have to pick zero gone here because of the layoff because of the unknowns because how shitty Jon Jones looked in his last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but is hesitant due to many red flags: a three-year layoff, lackluster recent performances, and moving up to heavyweight. He notes Gane's takedown defense was exposed by Ngannou, and Jones is a great wrestler. He predicts a decision win for Jones, but advises against betting on the fight due to uncertainty.

by decision; no serious bets, maybe a parlay
"give me Jon Jones as far as a pick goes here... I'll take Jon Jones to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody is very reluctant to take Jones at -160 given the three-year layoff, recent disinterested performances, and move up to heavyweight. He sees Gane as a legitimate heavyweight who fought Francis Ngannou closely, but worries about Gane's wrestling after Ngannou took him down. He ultimately takes the plus money on Gane but will wait for weigh-ins to see Jones's physique.

Will wait for weigh-ins before locking in; mentions live betting as a possibility
"ever so reluctantly is take the plus money here on Cyril gone but I am going to wait for weigh-ins to really see what's going on"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor picks Jones but with significant hesitation. He believes Jones's forward pressure and consistent use of a few tools (lead hook, body kick, side kick) over five rounds will be enough to edge out Gane, despite Jones's decline in activity and wrestling. He expects a close, boring fight where Jones may get hurt but ultimately wins a decision or via a takedown from a Gane error. He notes Gane's poor defensive footwork and tendency to fall apart when pressured, but acknowledges Jones's own defensive flaws and the risk of Gane's jab and kicks.

Expects a close fight; mentions Jones opened at +140 and dropped to -165, but does not recommend a bet.
"I'm going to pick Jones to just have... I don't expect a better version of John Jones. I don't expect anything more than the late career John Jones we've seen. I just think that might still be enough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Jacob is confident in Ciryl Gane, stating that on the feet, Gane will embarrass Jones with his footwork and speed. He believes Jones will struggle to get takedowns because Gane will be ready for them. Jacob thinks Gane will pick Jones apart and win.

"on the feet cirrogon is going to embarrass Jon Jones he's going to look slow"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Jones is a dominant wrestler with unorthodox striking and a championship mindset. Gane is a slick striker but has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen against Francis Ngannou. Jones will drag the fight to the ground and use his top pressure and ground and pound to win. The weight gain shouldn't be detrimental.

surprised by the odds (-155)
"I think Jon Jones will showcase as he said in the past that there are levels to the [ __ ] and I think that Jon Jones as long as packing on the muscle and weight... I think he wins …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones but says it's a stay away from a betting perspective. He believes Jones's wrestling will be the difference, as Gane was taken down by Ngannou. However, he acknowledges the many question marks around Jones and cannot bet him at -170. He thinks Jones will win but won't put money on it.

Stay away from betting; considers live betting after first few minutes
"Jon Jones is the pick to stay away from a betting perspective for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane to upset Jon Jones, citing Jones' long layoff (over 3 years) and recent close fights. He believes Gane's range, leg kicks, and patience will trouble Jones, and that Jones' takedowns won't be as effective at heavyweight. He predicts a decision win for Gane.

"I'm going with Cyril gone to upset Jon Jones... I think he's gonna give Jones some problems."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Zane favors Gane, assuming the fight becomes a slow-paced kickboxing match where Gane's consistency, jab, and kicking variety give him the edge. He doubts Jones's wrestling will be effective due to poor entries and a clench that has deteriorated. He notes Gane's defensive flaws and potential unforced errors (like a bad takedown attempt) could cost him, but overall sees Gane as the more reliable striker at range.

"I favor Gane in this fight. My only real concern with picking him is maybe Jones has really worked on his wrestling."
Decision (unanimous) (48-47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · Feb 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 104 of 166 62% 107 of 170 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:41
Dominick Reyes 0 116 of 259 44% 119 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 17 of 27 62% 17 of 27 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 22 of 37 59% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 0 33 of 68 48% 33 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 19 of 34 55% 20 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Dominick Reyes 0 26 of 45 57% 27 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Dominick Reyes 0 13 of 41 31% 14 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 26 of 34 76% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Dominick Reyes 0 21 of 46 45% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 104 of 166 62% 31 of 74 30 of 39 43 of 53 101 of 161 3 of 5 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 116 of 259 44% 41 of 169 48 of 55 27 of 35 109 of 252 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 17 of 27 62% 1 of 5 6 of 8 10 of 14 17 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 23 of 59 38% 7 of 33 11 of 14 5 of 12 20 of 56 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 22 of 37 59% 8 of 19 5 of 7 9 of 11 22 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 33 of 68 48% 11 of 46 12 of 12 10 of 10 33 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 19 of 34 55% 7 of 18 5 of 7 7 of 9 19 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 26 of 45 57% 7 of 25 13 of 14 6 of 6 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 20 of 34 58% 8 of 19 6 of 8 6 of 7 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 13 of 41 31% 7 of 32 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 26 of 34 76% 7 of 13 8 of 9 11 of 12 26 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 21 of 46 45% 9 of 33 8 of 8 4 of 5 21 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Levi picks Jon Jones, citing his unparalleled skill set, fight IQ, and durability. He notes that Jones has a 7-inch reach advantage and gets better as fights go on, while Reyes may fade after the first round. He expects Jones to pick Reyes apart and possibly get a ground-and-pound finish.

"I think Jon Jones gonna pick this guy apart he's gonna take him down and I think he's gonna pound him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The host picks Jon Jones, likely by decision or late finish, citing his reach, kicks, wrestling, and experience. He believes Jones will establish his range and wear down Reyes, who has not faced anyone of Jones' caliber. He plans to parlay Jones with Andrea Lee as his lock of the night play.

Parlay with Andrea Lee at -161, Jones by decision or late finish
"I am looking at John Jones and Angie Lee parlayed as my locker than I play or the under two and a half of the lingo and slaw fights there's a two plays I'm looking at as my locker than …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones to win, noting that Jones has a massive reach advantage and is more focused after time off. He warns not to sleep on Reyes but believes Jones will win. He also suggests betting small on Reyes as an underdog parlay.

suggests betting small on Reyes as underdog parlay with other underdogs
"John Jones will get the win over Dominic roster"
WIN vs Thiago Santos
Decision (split) (48–47, 48–47, 47–48) R5 5:00 · UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Jul 06, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 90 65% 59 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 43 of 166 25% 43 of 166 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 7 of 42 16% 7 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 14 of 19 73% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 6 of 33 18% 6 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 16 of 21 76% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Thiago Santos 0 11 of 37 29% 11 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 90 65% 11 of 32 16 of 19 32 of 39 55 of 84 4 of 6 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 43 of 166 25% 9 of 92 7 of 21 27 of 53 42 of 159 1 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 7 of 16 43% 0 of 4 3 of 5 4 of 7 7 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 26 42% 3 of 12 1 of 1 7 of 13 11 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 5 of 6 10 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 7 of 42 16% 1 of 25 2 of 6 4 of 11 6 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 14 of 19 73% 4 of 7 4 of 4 6 of 8 11 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 6 of 33 18% 1 of 17 1 of 6 4 of 10 6 of 30 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 11 of 17 64% 2 of 7 2 of 3 7 of 7 11 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 8 of 28 28% 0 of 13 1 of 5 7 of 10 8 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 16 of 21 76% 3 of 7 3 of 3 10 of 11 16 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Thiago Santos 11 of 37 29% 4 of 25 2 of 3 5 of 9 11 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Anthony Smith
Decision (unanimous) (48–44, 48–44, 48–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 125 of 167 74% 238 of 287 3 of 8 37% 0 0 12:58
Anthony Smith 0 36 of 66 54% 45 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 25 52% 17 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Anthony Smith 0 12 of 21 57% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 30 of 44 68% 35 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
Anthony Smith 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 27 of 30 90% 57 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:21
Anthony Smith 0 2 of 3 66% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 35 of 39 89% 51 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:38
Anthony Smith 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 20 of 29 68% 78 of 91 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:34
Anthony Smith 0 7 of 17 41% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 125 of 167 74% 45 of 80 35 of 40 45 of 47 64 of 102 31 of 34 30 of 31
Anthony Smith 36 of 66 54% 15 of 40 9 of 14 12 of 12 31 of 59 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 25 52% 1 of 11 5 of 7 7 of 7 12 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 12 of 21 57% 1 of 9 3 of 4 8 of 8 10 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 30 of 44 68% 6 of 17 8 of 10 16 of 17 28 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 14 of 24 58% 8 of 15 4 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 27 of 30 90% 4 of 6 10 of 11 13 of 13 4 of 6 17 of 18 6 of 6
Anthony Smith 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 35 of 39 89% 25 of 29 9 of 9 1 of 1 10 of 13 1 of 1 24 of 25
Anthony Smith 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 20 of 29 68% 9 of 17 3 of 3 8 of 9 10 of 19 10 of 10 0 of 0
Anthony Smith 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R3 2:02 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 59 of 102 57% 63 of 106 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 22 of 83 26% 24 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 19 of 36 52% 20 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 27 of 51 52% 27 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alexander Gustafsson 0 8 of 48 16% 8 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 13 of 15 86% 16 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:28
Alexander Gustafsson 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 59 of 102 57% 26 of 52 15 of 22 18 of 28 40 of 81 7 of 8 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 22 of 83 26% 12 of 62 4 of 11 6 of 10 19 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 19 of 36 52% 5 of 17 7 of 8 7 of 11 15 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 13 of 32 40% 4 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 8 10 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 27 of 51 52% 8 of 20 8 of 14 11 of 17 24 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Alexander Gustafsson 8 of 48 16% 7 of 42 0 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 13 of 15 86% 13 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 13
Alexander Gustafsson 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Daniel Cormier
NC (overturned) R3 3:01 · UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 · Jul 29, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Cormier 0 58 of 140 41% 60 of 142 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 95 of 165 57% 95 of 165 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Cormier 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 34 of 66 51% 34 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Daniel Cormier 0 22 of 54 40% 24 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Daniel Cormier 0 5 of 26 19% 5 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jon Jones 1 31 of 52 59% 31 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Cormier 58 of 140 41% 29 of 99 12 of 16 17 of 25 46 of 123 12 of 17 0 of 0
Jon Jones 95 of 165 57% 33 of 74 32 of 43 30 of 48 76 of 142 4 of 6 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Cormier 31 of 60 51% 13 of 36 7 of 9 11 of 15 26 of 50 5 of 10 0 of 0
Jon Jones 34 of 66 51% 8 of 27 13 of 19 13 of 20 31 of 62 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Daniel Cormier 22 of 54 40% 14 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 9 17 of 49 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jon Jones 30 of 47 63% 7 of 17 11 of 14 12 of 16 29 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Daniel Cormier 5 of 26 19% 2 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jon Jones 31 of 52 59% 18 of 30 8 of 10 5 of 12 16 of 35 0 of 0 15 of 17
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux · Apr 23, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 0 105 of 157 66% 111 of 163 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:54
Ovince Saint Preux 0 57 of 160 35% 58 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ovince Saint Preux 0 12 of 31 38% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Ovince Saint Preux 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 0 30 of 46 65% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Jon Jones 0 26 of 29 89% 27 of 30 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:22
Ovince Saint Preux 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Jon Jones 0 18 of 28 64% 21 of 31 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:13
Ovince Saint Preux 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 105 of 157 66% 35 of 63 24 of 29 46 of 65 76 of 120 11 of 18 18 of 19
Ovince Saint Preux 57 of 160 35% 29 of 113 12 of 23 16 of 24 46 of 143 11 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 13 of 26 50% 1 of 7 7 of 9 5 of 10 11 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 12 of 31 38% 4 of 16 3 of 7 5 of 8 11 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 4 of 10 4 of 4 10 of 14 13 of 21 5 of 7 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 17 of 39 43% 12 of 30 2 of 3 3 of 6 10 of 28 7 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 30 of 46 65% 5 of 12 6 of 8 19 of 26 29 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 40 27% 7 of 31 2 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Jon Jones 26 of 29 89% 19 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 4 8 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 18
Ovince Saint Preux 6 of 12 50% 1 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 3 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jon Jones 18 of 28 64% 6 of 14 3 of 3 9 of 11 15 of 22 2 of 5 1 of 1
Ovince Saint Preux 11 of 38 28% 5 of 30 3 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 34 2 of 4 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic - Fight History
LOSS vs Jon Jones
TKO (spinning back kick and punches) R3 4:29 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jon Jones 1 96 of 119 80% 104 of 128 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Stipe Miocic 0 37 of 89 41% 42 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jon Jones 0 42 of 48 87% 49 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:37
Stipe Miocic 0 6 of 13 46% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jon Jones 0 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jon Jones 1 34 of 43 79% 35 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Stipe Miocic 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jon Jones 96 of 119 80% 70 of 91 16 of 18 10 of 10 54 of 70 2 of 3 40 of 46
Stipe Miocic 37 of 89 41% 24 of 75 7 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 83 4 of 5 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jon Jones 42 of 48 87% 36 of 42 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 0 of 0 37 of 42
Stipe Miocic 6 of 13 46% 3 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Jon Jones 20 of 28 71% 9 of 16 7 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 16 of 37 43% 9 of 29 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jon Jones 34 of 43 79% 25 of 33 5 of 6 4 of 4 30 of 37 1 of 2 3 of 4
Stipe Miocic 15 of 39 38% 12 of 36 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 34 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.

Angelo comments on the odds, saying Jones at -700 is a good value and should be -1500.
"Jon Jones is going to win this fight I think he makes it look easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.

Jon Jones over 40.5 significant strikes
"give me Jon Jones here to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"I got Jones by decision the over two and a half but again this is a fun fight but it's it's not the Crown Jewel on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.

Jones by submission or TKO; fight may be slow early then finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.

"I do have to go with Jones here to just come out here and uh show why he's one of the most dominant fighters to ever do it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm taking Jon Jones like no I it's it's tragic that this is like the fight... there's no reason to like stie miic in this fight"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm Jon Jones all the way in this one... he's 100% gonna win this fight by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.

wins inside the distance, wins in first two rounds
"I'm taking Jon Jones to win here. I'm taking Jon Jones to win inside the distance here and I'm taking Jon Jones to win within the first two rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jon Jones

The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.

submission
"I do believe Jones will be able to continue his dominant ways just as he showcased against sraon last time around and I think we'll see him get to his grappl and keep mius on his back dominate him from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would think that Jones has got more than enough left in the tank to just pinpoint this guy and uh you know win a 4946 type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.

finish in first or second round, guillotine choke
"I'm going to go Jon Jones by finish in the first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.

Jones finishes inside the distance, likely submission or TKO; fight may be a slog early then quick finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
LOSS vs Francis Ngannou
KO (punch) R2 0:52 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francis Ngannou 0 12 of 13 92% 12 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Stipe Miocic 2 36 of 56 64% 38 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francis Ngannou 0 8 of 8 100% 8 of 8 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Stipe Miocic 0 23 of 37 62% 24 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
2 Francis Ngannou 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stipe Miocic 2 13 of 19 68% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francis Ngannou 12 of 13 92% 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 7 12 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 36 of 56 64% 28 of 46 2 of 4 6 of 6 17 of 36 8 of 8 11 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francis Ngannou 8 of 8 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 7 8 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 23 of 37 62% 16 of 28 2 of 4 5 of 5 11 of 24 3 of 3 9 of 10
2 Francis Ngannou 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 13 of 19 68% 12 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 5 of 5 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

Big Brady picks Stipe Miocic to win by fifth-round TKO. He believes Stipe is the more well-rounded fighter with better cardio and fight IQ. He expects Stipe to survive the early rounds by clinching and attempting takedowns to tire Ngannou, then take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Ngannou only landed two significant strikes after the second round in their first fight. However, he acknowledges Ngannou's one-shot knockout power and says he would not bet the fight at current odds.

Stipe by fifth-round TKO; Ngannou by KO prop; Stipe decision prop; odds comment: Stipe opened +135 now +100, Ngannou by KO is the way to bet Ngannou
"i do think stephen wins i'm going to say steepy wins with a fifth round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Cody backs Ngannou, citing his generational power and the fact that he has been training wrestling defense with Kamaru Usman. He believes Ngannou's strategy is to go out and kill his opponent early, and if he lands, it's over. He acknowledges the cardio concerns but thinks Ngannou's durability held up in the first fight and that he has improved mentally since the Lewis loss.

Francis Ngannou round 1 +200
"francis ngani plus 200 round one that's all i've got action on this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Francis Ngannou

Daniel Levi picks Francis Ngannou to win by first-round knockout. He emphasizes that Ngannou is now focused, has the right team, and has learned from his first fight with Stipe. He notes that Stipe has absorbed over 300 head strikes since their first fight, including a knockout loss, while Ngannou has taken minimal damage. Levi believes Ngannou's power and improved mental approach will lead to a violent finish.

first round knockout
"i'm going francis be a first round knockout i think the trilogy is going to be great but i think it's time for francis to realize his dream"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

The host believes Stipe Miocic will retain his title by third-round TKO. He notes that Stipe has improved his cardio and fight IQ since their first fight, as seen in the Cormier trilogy. He expects Stipe to use head movement, smart takedown entries to the weak side, and mix in grappling to wear down Ngannou, who he thinks will gas after a round and a half if he doesn't get the knockout. He compares the matchup to Lewis vs Blaydes and Gane vs Rozenstruik, where the more skilled fighter won. He advises that if backing Ngannou, take the KO prop because he won't win by decision.

If backing Ngannou, take the KO prop; Stipe by third-round TKO
"I think he gets a third round finish here... I'll take him to win by third round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

Paul picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing his wrestling advantage, cardio advantage, and later-round experience. He notes that Stipe has shown he can take Ngannou's punches and grind him down, as seen in the first fight. He also highlights Stipe's success in rematches, having avenged losses to JDS and Cormier. Paul is confident that if Ngannou doesn't knock him out early, Stipe will take over.

"i gotta i got to backsteep it the same way i did last time i got underdog money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

The Guru picks Stipe Miocic, emphasizing that Stipe has improved since the first fight: better footwork, cardio, wrestling, and clinch work from his camps against Daniel Cormier. He argues that Stipe's wrestling is the key difference, as he can take Ngannou down and control him, unlike other heavyweights who tried to stand and trade. He predicts Ngannou will be hesitant and gas out, leading to a TKO in the third or fourth round. He acknowledges the puncher's chance for Ngannou but relies on evidence over guesswork.

Stipe by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i'm picking stephen youtube to win he flies under the radar i think in ghana who's going to [ __ ] himself in there after the first round and stipe is going to ragdoll him"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 1 115 of 187 61% 171 of 244 0 of 6 0% 0 0 5:52
Daniel Cormier 0 105 of 183 57% 145 of 223 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 20 of 33 60% 22 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Cormier 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:38
2 Stipe Miocic 1 24 of 39 61% 38 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Daniel Cormier 0 26 of 53 49% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Stipe Miocic 0 28 of 48 58% 46 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Daniel Cormier 0 16 of 32 50% 34 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 32 50% 23 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:23
Daniel Cormier 0 30 of 43 69% 41 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Stipe Miocic 0 27 of 35 77% 42 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:27
Daniel Cormier 0 19 of 30 63% 30 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 115 of 187 61% 67 of 136 31 of 34 17 of 17 101 of 169 14 of 18 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 105 of 183 57% 70 of 132 11 of 24 24 of 27 95 of 171 10 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 20 of 33 60% 7 of 19 7 of 8 6 of 6 20 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 14 of 25 56% 7 of 14 2 of 5 5 of 6 11 of 22 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Stipe Miocic 24 of 39 61% 13 of 28 7 of 7 4 of 4 24 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 26 of 53 49% 14 of 36 4 of 9 8 of 8 23 of 50 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Stipe Miocic 28 of 48 58% 18 of 38 8 of 8 2 of 2 22 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 16 of 32 50% 13 of 27 0 of 2 3 of 3 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Stipe Miocic 16 of 32 50% 12 of 26 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 29 0 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 30 of 43 69% 21 of 31 2 of 3 7 of 9 29 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Stipe Miocic 27 of 35 77% 17 of 25 7 of 7 3 of 3 19 of 27 8 of 8 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 19 of 30 63% 15 of 24 3 of 5 1 of 1 16 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Cormier

Big Brady picks Cormier to win by decision, expecting him to implement more wrestling and have better cardio. He thinks Cormier is the better fighter and will fight smarter. He wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

"i'm going to go with cormier here to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Stipe Miocic

Daniel Levi picks Stipe Miocic to win the trilogy. He argues that Stipe made Cormier work hard in the first fight and that Cormier's pace is unsustainable in championship rounds, especially at age 41 with retirement looming. He notes that Stipe is willing to dig deeper and that body shots have historically troubled Cormier. He also points out that if Cormier wrestles more, it will tire him out faster, leading to a Stipe finish.

Stipe by finish in later rounds; Cormier needs perfect fight or early KO; dog money on Stipe is good value
"I think stipe and i hate to say [__] like oh tougher guy or not tougher guy when you're talking about someone like daniel [__] cormier ... but i really think that stipe is willing to dig deeper at this …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Cormier

Cormier is the better wrestler with superior fight IQ and will use a grapple-heavy approach, taking Miocic down repeatedly and wearing him out. He learned from the second fight where he abandoned his wrestling and gassed out; this time he will chain-wrestle and finish via ground-and-pound in the later rounds. Miocic's gas tank has shown issues when forced to wrestle, as seen in the Ngannou fight, and Cormier's top pressure is crushing.

Cormier wins by TKO in round 4; also mentions Cormier in rounds 3,4,5 as potential prop bets
"I expect the experience, the fight IQ, and the true skills to come out of Daniel Cormier to really put a stamp on this trilogy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Stipe Miocic

The MMA Guru picks Stipe Miocic by TKO in the third round. He believes Miocic will start body shots earlier than the second fight and that Cormier won't get away with eye pokes. He dismisses arguments that Cormier will wrestle more, noting Miocic stuffed takedowns in previous fights.

TKO in the third round
"i think stipe miocic goes out there tko's daniel cormier in the third round"
TKO (punches) R4 4:09 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 0 181 of 263 68% 230 of 317 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:02
Daniel Cormier 1 123 of 229 53% 135 of 244 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 37 of 46 80% 71 of 83 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:44
Daniel Cormier 0 7 of 13 53% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Stipe Miocic 0 56 of 82 68% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Daniel Cormier 0 46 of 82 56% 48 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Stipe Miocic 0 57 of 86 66% 69 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Daniel Cormier 0 34 of 67 50% 40 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
4 Stipe Miocic 0 31 of 49 63% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Cormier 1 36 of 67 53% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 181 of 263 68% 162 of 243 9 of 9 10 of 11 139 of 209 21 of 27 21 of 27
Daniel Cormier 123 of 229 53% 86 of 188 27 of 30 10 of 11 102 of 195 19 of 28 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 37 of 46 80% 25 of 34 7 of 7 5 of 5 13 of 16 3 of 3 21 of 27
Daniel Cormier 7 of 13 53% 3 of 8 0 of 0 4 of 5 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Stipe Miocic 56 of 82 68% 56 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 1 45 of 68 11 of 14 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 46 of 82 56% 37 of 72 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 76 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Stipe Miocic 57 of 86 66% 53 of 82 1 of 1 3 of 3 50 of 76 7 of 10 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 34 of 67 50% 28 of 61 5 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 50 10 of 17 0 of 0
4 Stipe Miocic 31 of 49 63% 28 of 46 1 of 1 2 of 2 31 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Cormier 36 of 67 53% 18 of 47 14 of 16 4 of 4 30 of 57 5 of 5 1 of 5
LOSS vs Daniel Cormier
KO (punches) R1 4:33 · UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Jul 07, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Cormier 0 24 of 51 47% 29 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
Stipe Miocic 1 25 of 37 67% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Cormier 0 24 of 51 47% 29 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
Stipe Miocic 1 25 of 37 67% 31 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Cormier 24 of 51 47% 15 of 41 6 of 7 3 of 3 19 of 42 5 of 9 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 25 of 37 67% 20 of 30 1 of 1 4 of 6 19 of 31 2 of 2 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Cormier 24 of 51 47% 15 of 41 6 of 7 3 of 3 19 of 42 5 of 9 0 of 0
Stipe Miocic 25 of 37 67% 20 of 30 1 of 1 4 of 6 19 of 31 2 of 2 4 of 4
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–44, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Jan 20, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 0 70 of 95 73% 200 of 244 6 of 14 42% 0 0 15:02
Francis Ngannou 0 21 of 113 18% 33 of 126 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 16 of 25 64% 24 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:57
Francis Ngannou 0 15 of 62 24% 18 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Stipe Miocic 0 17 of 24 70% 29 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:17
Francis Ngannou 0 4 of 27 14% 4 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Stipe Miocic 0 12 of 16 75% 47 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:47
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 8 12% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
4 Stipe Miocic 0 18 of 21 85% 82 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:39
Francis Ngannou 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Stipe Miocic 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:22
Francis Ngannou 0 1 of 13 7% 4 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 70 of 95 73% 45 of 67 9 of 11 16 of 17 37 of 52 5 of 6 28 of 37
Francis Ngannou 21 of 113 18% 17 of 106 4 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 105 2 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 16 of 25 64% 13 of 22 2 of 2 1 of 1 12 of 19 2 of 2 2 of 4
Francis Ngannou 15 of 62 24% 14 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 13 of 55 2 of 7 0 of 0
2 Stipe Miocic 17 of 24 70% 7 of 13 4 of 5 6 of 6 14 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 4
Francis Ngannou 4 of 27 14% 2 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Stipe Miocic 12 of 16 75% 8 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 9
Francis Ngannou 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Stipe Miocic 18 of 21 85% 15 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Francis Ngannou 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Stipe Miocic 7 of 9 77% 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 6 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Francis Ngannou 1 of 13 7% 0 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 2:22 · UFC 211: Miocic vs. dos Santos 2 · May 13, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 1 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Junior dos Santos 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 1 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Junior dos Santos 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 26 of 56 46% 23 of 50 0 of 2 3 of 4 15 of 39 3 of 4 8 of 13
Junior dos Santos 12 of 18 66% 4 of 9 3 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 26 of 56 46% 23 of 50 0 of 2 3 of 4 15 of 39 3 of 4 8 of 13
Junior dos Santos 12 of 18 66% 4 of 9 3 of 4 5 of 5 12 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
KO (punches) R1 4:27 · UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Sep 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stipe Miocic 0 34 of 60 56% 34 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Alistair Overeem 1 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stipe Miocic 0 34 of 60 56% 34 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Alistair Overeem 1 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stipe Miocic 34 of 60 56% 31 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 36 6 of 9 12 of 15
Alistair Overeem 9 of 17 52% 5 of 10 3 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stipe Miocic 34 of 60 56% 31 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 36 6 of 9 12 of 15
Alistair Overeem 9 of 17 52% 5 of 10 3 of 6 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Angelo is very confident in Jon Jones, citing his all-around greatness, youth, and activity compared to Stipe Miocic, who is a full-time fireman on a four-year layoff. He expects Jones to take Miocic down early and dominate. He thinks Jones should be -1500 and will win easily.

Angelo comments on the odds, saying Jones at -700 is a good value and should be -1500.
"Jon Jones is going to win this fight I think he makes it look easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Big Brady picks Jon Jones but expects a slow, disappointing fight. He notes that Stipe Miocic is old and washed, having looked slow against Francis Ngannou four years ago, but he doesn't think Jones will finish him early. He cites Jones' recent lackluster performances against Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos. He predicts a decision win for Jones and likes the over on 40.5 significant strikes for Jones on PrizePicks.

Jon Jones over 40.5 significant strikes
"give me Jon Jones here to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Cody picks Jon Jones, citing Jones' legendary durability and distance management. He notes Stipe is 43, hasn't fought in 3.5 years, and looked slow against Ngannou. Cody expects Jones to win a 49-46 decision or possibly get a late submission, but sees the fight going the distance. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"I got Jones by decision the over two and a half but again this is a fun fight but it's it's not the Crown Jewel on this card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Connor also picks Jones, emphasizing that Stipe is old and likely shot, and that Jones's wrestling and size will be too much. He notes that Stipe's last performance against Ngannou was poor and he looked aimless. Connor expects Jones to take Stipe down and submit him, possibly after a tentative first round.

Jones by submission or TKO; fight may be slow early then finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Vreeland picks Jones emphatically, calling it tragic that this fight is happening. He notes Stipe hasn't fought anyone well-rounded since 2018, is 42, semi-retired, and was knocked out badly by Ngannou. Vreeland believes Jones will win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and that Stipe will look old when he gets knocked out.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm taking Jon Jones like no I it's it's tragic that this is like the fight... there's no reason to like stie miic in this fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Daniel Vreeland picks Jon Jones to win, citing Jones' superior MMA wrestling, takedown defense (95%), reach advantage, and younger age. He believes Jones will use oblique kicks to immobilize Stipe, mix in takedowns, and dictate the pace. He acknowledges Stipe's boxing and wrestling credentials but thinks Jones' overall MMA game is superior. He notes that Stipe hasn't fought since 2021 and may have declined.

"I do have to go with Jones here to just come out here and uh show why he's one of the most dominant fighters to ever do it"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Fox picks Jones, agreeing that Stipe has no chance. He notes Jones is younger, has a reach advantage, and is the better fighter everywhere. Fox expects Jones to win by knockout, possibly with a 12-to-6 elbow, and thinks Stipe's chin is compromised after the Ngannou KO.

Jon Jones wins by knockout (+130)
"I'm Jon Jones all the way in this one... he's 100% gonna win this fight by knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Lucrative James picks Jon Jones to win, citing Stipe Miocic's age (42) and four-year layoff as major concerns. He believes Stipe will look stiff and has lost athleticism, while Jones has an iron chin, superior striking at all ranges, and much better MMA wrestling and grappling. He predicts Jones will win inside the distance, likely within the first two rounds, and notes that Jones can win however he wants if Stipe is a shell of his former self.

wins inside the distance, wins in first two rounds
"I'm taking Jon Jones to win here. I'm taking Jon Jones to win inside the distance here and I'm taking Jon Jones to win within the first two rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jon Jones

The host expects Jones to continue his dominant ways as he did against Gane, getting to his grappling and keeping Miocic on his back. He mentions Jones might use 12-to-6 elbows but ultimately finds the neck and gets a submission victory.

submission
"I do believe Jones will be able to continue his dominant ways just as he showcased against sraon last time around and I think we'll see him get to his grappl and keep mius on his back dominate him from that top position maybe get some of those 12 to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Paul picks Jon Jones, calling it a freak show fight. He argues Jones has fought weak competition and had close fights with lesser opponents, but Stipe is faded and hasn't fought in three years. Paul expects Jones to win by decision, possibly 49-46, and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He notes Jones' distance management and Stipe's age and inactivity.

over 2.5 rounds
"I would think that Jones has got more than enough left in the tank to just pinpoint this guy and uh you know win a 4946 type decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jon Jones

The MMA Guru picks Jon Jones, expecting a finish in the first or second round. He describes Jones's oblique kicks and clinch work breaking down the 42-year-old Miocic. He predicts a guillotine choke after a takedown, noting Stipe's tendency to scramble into submissions.

finish in first or second round, guillotine choke
"I'm going to go Jon Jones by finish in the first or second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jon Jones

Zane picks Jones, noting that Stipe is old and inactive, having not fought in over three years and showing no interest in fighting. He expects a slog for a round or two, then Jones will take Stipe down and finish him via submission or ground-and-pound. Zane mentions Jones's wrestling and size advantage, and that Stipe's chin and durability are questionable at this stage.

Jones finishes inside the distance, likely submission or TKO; fight may be a slog early then quick finish
"I think jones is much worse than he used to be but I can only assume that steep is much much worse than he used to be... That's the pick."