vs
-295 +250
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 0"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Oban Elliott
3.62 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.24 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.52 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bassil Hafez
3.71 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
5.68 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
2.21 TD Avg
24.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Oban Elliott
Moneyline
FanDuel -295
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay -120
Bassil Hafez
Moneyline
DraftKings +250
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1200
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetRivers +525
Oban Elliott - Fight History
Submission R2 3:31 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Micallef 0 19 of 59 32% 30 of 70 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:35
Oban Elliott 0 40 of 82 48% 47 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Micallef 0 11 of 36 30% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Oban Elliott 0 21 of 49 42% 27 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
2 Jonathan Micallef 0 8 of 23 34% 10 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:00
Oban Elliott 0 19 of 33 57% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Micallef 19 of 59 32% 13 of 49 5 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 53 3 of 6 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 40 of 82 48% 34 of 74 1 of 3 5 of 5 35 of 74 5 of 7 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Micallef 11 of 36 30% 8 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 31 2 of 5 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 21 of 49 42% 16 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 4 16 of 43 5 of 5 0 of 1
2 Jonathan Micallef 8 of 23 34% 5 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Oban Elliott 19 of 33 57% 18 of 31 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Oban Elliott vs. Jonathan Micallef
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Micallef (-135), Elliott (+114)

Round 1
Of the 10 fights the UFC designates as UFC 325, two of them do not feature an athlete from Oceania. This is not one of those, as locals have another man in the cage to get excited about in the form of Micallef (8-1, 1-0 UFC). He collides in a classic matchup of Australia vs. Wales as he locks horns with Elliott (12-3, 3-1 UFC). The welterweights get right after it while referee Marc Goddard keeps tabs on the action.
Micallef leads off with a few kicks, and one to the midsection gets caught as Elliott slings him right down to the mat and climbs on top. Micallef scoots his way to the fence and walks up it with his face aimed towards the audience, and Elliott slugs him upside the head a few times until Micallef breaks off. Elliott intercepts his opponent with a chopping kick that sweeps him off his feet, and when Micallef gets up, he takes a power jab on the jaw. Micallef lunges recklessly, landing a front kick but nearly falling over while doing so. Elliott shrugs it off and corners Micallef, clubbing him with his fists until Micallef peels out and resets. Elliott stings Micallef with a short combination, and he whips a kick at the Aussie’s head that is blocked in time. Elliott kicks low, and Micallef is unable to get out of first gear. Both fighters miss on big hooks, and Elliott uses a second to set up an ankle pick takedown that does not materialize.
The clashing men clinch up, and when they split, Micallef drills Elliott in the temple with a right hand that sets him down. The Welshman climbs back up, and he watches Micallef load up wildly and sees the punches soar past him. Micallef offers out a one-two, and he is met with an intercepting jab. Elliott beats his man to the punch, opening a cut on Micallef’s right eye with his faster swings. Micallef lumbers forward, loading up so much that he crashes into the cage looking quite silly. Elliott does not make him pay for it, so Micallef circles around and wipes the wound that is leaking a bit. Micallef manages to get his hands on Elliott, wrapping him up and leaning on him against the fence. Elliott escapes and dodges an elbow, and he plants his left hand on the bloody face of the Aussie. Elliott further targets it before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott

Round 2
Elliott rushes out to start the round, where he is met with a front kick to his breadbasket. Micallef looks to establish his jab, and he guards against a high kick when pressing forward. Elliott’s boxing is crisp and quick, allowing him to beat the wide-swinging Micallef to the punch. Micallef swarms forward but misses the mark with his lobbed arms, and Elliott opens the cut up again on the side of Micallef’s eye. Elliott strings a few punches together, not getting too greedy and backing off when he sees the counter coming. Micallef winds up on his punches, allowing Elliott to see many of them coming. The Welshman slams a kick on the lead leg, and his guard is able to defend the responsive head kick. Micallef catches him coming forward with a right hand, and Elliott gets frustrated and lashes out with a storm of reaching punches.
Micallef takes them flush and bounces off the wall behind him, letting Elliott come to him so he can wrap him up and go for a level change. The body lock takedown from Micallef is successful in wresting “The Welsh Gangster” to the floor, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke while lacing both hooks in. Micallef slithers his arm beneath the chin in a slightly unorthodox position, and Elliott fights the hands and releases slack in his arms in hopes of loosening the grip.
Seeing this is a poor decision, Elliott frantically attacks the choke grip, but it is now fully secured and squeezing the carotid artery as tight as one can. Elliott’s defensive gestures fall away as his limbs go limp, losing consciousness as Goddard quickly identifies—and measures his resistance by lifting the lifeless arms—the submission has reached its completion.
Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat thanks to one perfectly timed takedown, the Australian adds another win on the board for home-country athletes with a technical submission of a man in Elliott who had never been submitted. There’s a first time for everything, as “The Captain” declares that he is the captain now.

The Official Result
Jonathan Micallef def. Oban Elliott R2 3:31 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have to do …"
CANCEL vs Jonathan Micallef
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef because he has takedowns and random power, which he believes will exploit Oban Elliott's grappling holes. He notes that Elliott recently lost to a similar style fighter (Shyuko) who took him down six times and made him hesitant. Angelo admits he is not insanely confident but sees a clear path to victory for Micallef.

"I'm going to pick Jonathan Malef. Am I insanely confident in that? No. No, I'm not. But I do think Jonathan Mikv, a guy that we know has random power, we know has takedowns versus a guy that has some …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by decision, but is hesitant. He has never been high on Elliott and thinks he is overrated, but sees this as a winnable fight. He notes Elliott is the better striker and can get takedowns, but worries about his ground game after a poor performance against Co.

"I'm going to pick Elliot here. pick Elliot here to win by decision, but I don't know. It's a weird one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody picks Elliott but is nervous after his last poor performance. He believes Elliott has the skills to win if he returns to form, using his judo and takedowns. He notes Micallef is green and relies on volume, but Elliott's low volume and recent loss make him untrustworthy.

"Obanelli hopefully jumps back in the in the right track, but last fight was abysmal. He's the pick for me, but I'm a little nervous there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Elliott is not comfortable being a pressure fighter and will likely spend too much time on the end of Micallef's kicks. He thinks Elliott may duck into a head kick trying to play Micallef's guessing game. However, he acknowledges it's a good fight and Elliott could win if he pressures.

"Yeah, I'll take Micallef as well. I think stylistically Elliott's gonna let him have too much play."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

James leans toward Oban Elliott due to his more well-rounded skill set, better boxing, and proven UFC experience. He notes that Micallef relies heavily on kicks and jiu-jitsu, while Elliott has superior wrestling and cardio. However, he acknowledges the fight is close and passes on betting due to lack of strong read.

"I lean Elliot a little bit. I mean he's been there and done it on the UFC scene a little bit more."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host expects Elliott to bounce back after losing as a big favorite. He thinks Elliott will shut down Micallef's grappling and use pace and pressure in striking that Micallef cannot keep up with, winning on the scorecards.

"Elliot is looking to bounce back after fumbling the bag as a minus 500 favorite last time around. And I think he can do it successfully by shutting down Mckela's grappling game and then putting on a pace and pressure …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his experience and well-rounded skills. He believes Micallef won't be able to impose his bully tactics and that Elliott's wrestling and striking will be key. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Elliott winning the first and third rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go towards my boy Oran Elliot here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane thinks Micallef's kicking game will be effective if Elliott gives him space, which he expects Elliott to do. He notes that Elliott tends to be a neutralizer who may not pressure effectively, and that Micallef's southpaw stance and power rear leg kick could cause problems. However, he acknowledges Elliott could counter if he pressures.

Odds comment: razor thin odds; Micallef opened +110 now -102, Elliott opened -130 now -118
"Part of my guts is I should take Micallef here. I think Elliott is gonna give him space."
LOSS vs Ko Seok-hyun
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ko Seok-hyun 0 33 of 61 54% 80 of 127 6 of 9 66% 1 0 10:15
Oban Elliott 0 10 of 31 32% 19 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ko Seok-hyun 0 8 of 20 40% 19 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Oban Elliott 0 4 of 11 36% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:41
2 Ko Seok-hyun 0 15 of 27 55% 26 of 45 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:15
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ko Seok-hyun 0 10 of 14 71% 35 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:24
Oban Elliott 0 3 of 10 30% 7 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ko Seok-hyun 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 5 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 32 3 of 6 16 of 23
Oban Elliott 10 of 31 32% 2 of 20 6 of 8 2 of 3 9 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ko Seok-hyun 8 of 20 40% 5 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 12 3 of 5 2 of 3
Oban Elliott 4 of 11 36% 0 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ko Seok-hyun 15 of 27 55% 12 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 1 10 of 15
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 0 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ko Seok-hyun 10 of 14 71% 8 of 12 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5
Oban Elliott 3 of 10 30% 2 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to flow. He contrasts Oban's movement with Ko's stiffness and power, predicting that Oban will avoid big shots and win early. He thinks Oban's footwork and range control will be key, and that Ko's lack of setup will be exploited.

Predicts win in first or second round; expects high fantasy score.
"I think Oban Elliott absolutely wins this fight. I think he wins early, meaning in like the first or second round."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott, the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Elliott has fixed previous chin and cardio issues, is only 27, and trains at a good gym. Brady is not sold on Ko, who had limited footage and a boring Contender Series win. He thinks Elliott will do better work on the feet and can mix in takedowns. He predicts Elliott by decision.

decision
"I'm going to go Elliot here. Elliot to win this one by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The host acknowledges that Ko will provide resistance, especially if Elliott looks for a takedown-heavy approach. However, he expects Elliott to mix it up well with volume striking and takedown threat to grind out a decision win.

"Co will surely provide some resistance, especially if Elliot looks for a takedown heavy approach, but I'm expecting Elliot to mix it up well with his volume striking and his takedown threat to grind this fight out and win it …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, despite acknowledging bias as a friend. He praises Elliott's ability to overcome adversity and resistance in fights, citing his comebacks against Val Woodburn and others. He believes Elliott's well-roundedness and durability will overcome Ko Seok-hyun, predicting a third-round finish.

Elliott wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm going to go with Oban Elliot. I think he's more wellrounded and he's met resistance. He's been rocked, he's been dropped, and he still wins every time."
CANCEL vs Ramiz Brahimaj
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott confidently, noting his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to get back to his feet after takedowns. He contrasts this with Ramiz Brahimaj's tendency to grapple off his back and lack of striking. He expects the odds to widen further and advises betting early.

Suggests the line will move from -400 to -800 or -900, implying value on Elliott at current odds.
"Oban is 100 times a striker that Ramese is and should absolutely run away here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Big Brady picks Billy Goff despite the wide line, noting that Ramiz Brahimaj is essentially first-round sub or bust and fades after the first five minutes. Goff is tough, has great cardio, and applies constant pressure. Brady expects Goff to break Brahimaj and finish him in the second round, possibly by knockout.

second round knockout
"I like Billy Rigoff here. It is a wide line, but I think he does break Ramsey's Brahimage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Matt picks Billy Goff to win by decision. He notes that Goff is an all-gas fighter who wears opponents down, while Brahimaj is an early-finish threat who fades. Goff has never been finished and should survive the early onslaught, then take over in the second and third rounds. Matt likes Goff by decision at +220.

Goff by decision +220, Brahimaj round one KO +2400, Brahimaj round one submission +1200
"Goff will likely start pulling away in the second and third rounds here. Goff to win by decision is the prop that I'd go with here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)

The MMA Guru picks Billy Goff over Ramiz Brahimaj, citing Goff's pressure, body work, and grit. He criticizes Brahimaj's level, noting losses to Court McGee and others. He predicts Goff will win by second or third round TKO, mixing body shots and low kicks.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Billy Ray Gooff... I think Billy Gooff is going to win this fight... Billy Gooff wins by second or third round TKO over Ramis Brahimage."
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
KO (punches) R3 0:40 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 1 65 of 117 55% 66 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Oban Elliott 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Oban Elliott 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 1 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 24 of 70 34% 16 of 55 2 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 65 of 117 55% 22 of 60 16 of 24 27 of 33 55 of 107 2 of 2 8 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 10 of 27 37% 7 of 21 1 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 25 of 49 51% 6 of 21 5 of 9 14 of 19 23 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 12 of 37 32% 8 of 29 0 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 29 of 53 54% 7 of 27 10 of 13 12 of 13 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 11 of 15 73% 9 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez as an underdog, liking his pressure, takedowns, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott has good cardio and tools but is not very dangerous and can be taken down. He believes if Hafez's cardio holds up, he wins. He plans to bet on Hafez if the line moves in his favor.

Angelo says he will bet on Bassil Hafez if the line moves in his favor, indicating a potential bet on the underdog.
"I love his pressure I love the takedowns I'm going to pick him as an underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott but thinks the line is too wide. He notes Elliott's improved takedown defense in his last fight against Preston Parsons and believes he is the cleaner striker. However, he acknowledges that Bassil Hafez has solid wrestling and that Elliott has been taken down by lesser fighters in the past. He predicts a close decision win for Elliott, possibly 29-28.

"I do think this Line's a tad too wide for my liking I do think there's some recency biased here with obon Elliott but with that said I I do think Elliott looked the best he he's ever had in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Bassil Hafez, citing his durability and grappling. He notes Hafez was competitive with Jack Madalena and has a strong top game. Cody expects Hafez to neutralize Elliott with takedowns and control, possibly winning a decision. He likes the plus money.

"I'll take HZ HZ by decision if you're a split decision kind of guy maybe chase the split decision prop on this one as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Hafez's aggression and willingness to scramble will trouble Elliott. He mentions that Elliott's defensive wrestling and footwork are good, but Hafez's pace and power could overwhelm him. Connor sees it as a close fight but leans toward Hafez.

"Yeah, Hafez just making aggressive decisions is a much bigger problem for somebody whose primary interest is to neutralize at the start of the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, expecting him to take over after the first round. He notes Hafez's tendency to gas out and Elliott's improving takedown defense and fight IQ. He acknowledges Hafez's early power but believes Elliott's pace and durability will win him the decision.

decision
"I see Oban taking over the second and third coming out here and uh winning this decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Vreeland picks Hafez as his dog, noting he has been fading Oban Elliott from day one. He thinks the plus 200 line is juicy and that Hafez can submit Elliott, who gave up his back to B Woodburn.

Bassil Hafez wins by submission (+600)
"I think that number is Juicy against obon Elliot and I have been an obon Elliott fader since day one"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He comments that he doesn't like the Hafez submission prop but does not state his own pick.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Oban Elliott

The host was impressed by Elliott's pressure approach against Preston Parsons, where he turned the takedowns against Parsons and landed big shots. He expects Elliott to replicate that against Hafez, using his speed and technical striking advantage to win a decision as Hafez slows down in deeper waters.

"Elliot surprised me very much last time around against Preston Parsons as he took that pressure approach and turned it against Parsons Stu the takedowns Landing big shots of his own and I expect him to do the same here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Bassil Hafez, noting the growing plus money and Hafez's durability. He expects a close fight that could go to a split decision, and likes Hafez as an underdog. Paul is waiting for the line to move further before betting.

"I'll wind up with some money on uh basil ofz this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his volume striking and underrated grappling. He notes Bassil Hafez looked awful against Mickey Gall and struggled with takedowns. He believes Elliott will out-volume Hafez on the feet and won't be taken down.

"I'm going to go with auan Elliott he's going to win the fight... I think auan ot's going to out volume him on the feet out busy him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Zane picks Hafez, feeling that Hafez's relentless aggression and power will be too much for Elliott's neutralization style. He notes that Elliott has been knocked out before and that Hafez is faster and harder to dissuade. Zane expects a split decision but leans toward Hafez.

Odds: Elliott opened -156, now -275; Hafez opened +123, now +232. Zane says it feels like a very close fight, split decision either way.
"I'm gonna go with Hafez as well. I just feel in my gut that Elliot his style... it is a level thing."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 44 of 125 35% 49 of 142 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:56
Preston Parsons 0 36 of 93 38% 71 of 133 1 of 9 11% 0 0 1:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 9 of 35 25% 12 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:56
Preston Parsons 0 12 of 34 35% 25 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Oban Elliott 0 13 of 46 28% 14 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:54
Preston Parsons 0 16 of 29 55% 23 of 38 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Oban Elliott 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Preston Parsons 0 8 of 30 26% 23 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 44 of 125 35% 36 of 116 4 of 5 4 of 4 41 of 122 3 of 3 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 36 of 93 38% 15 of 66 4 of 9 17 of 18 31 of 85 5 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 9 of 35 25% 6 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 34 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 12 of 34 35% 3 of 21 2 of 5 7 of 8 9 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 13 of 46 28% 9 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 16 of 29 55% 7 of 18 2 of 4 7 of 7 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 22 of 44 50% 21 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Preston Parsons 8 of 30 26% 5 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

"I'm going to go with Preston I think he's diving at legs I think he gets it to the ground probably 50/50 if he subs or decisions"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

"I gotta go with Preston Parsons uh honestly he's got some legitimate skills guy that shows up every time and he's just a go go go go type guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance +240; also mentions submission line +1800 as tempting but not official
"I'm gonna take his inside the distance because even if he takes him down a bunch I think there's a real chance he gets a ground and pound finish instead"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

"I'm gonna pick Preston Parsons but not confidently"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

"I don't really understand the OB and Elliott love to be perfectly honest."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Preston Parsons

The MMA Guru picks Preston Parsons, believing he is the better fighter with tougher competition. He notes Parsons' well-rounded game, including grappling and submission attempts, and his impressive win over Matthew Semelsberger. The Guru is less impressed with Oban Elliott's striking, calling it slow, and thinks Parsons will mix things up effectively. He acknowledges Elliott's size and potential but trusts Parsons' experience and skill.

"I just think Preston Parsons is better than him to be honest with you and I think Preston Parsons has fought better competition"
WIN vs Val Woodburn
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 70 of 111 63% 136 of 188 3 of 5 60% 0 0 8:58
Val Woodburn 1 23 of 61 37% 30 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 28 of 40 70% 51 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:09
Val Woodburn 1 5 of 17 29% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Oban Elliott 0 23 of 40 57% 53 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Val Woodburn 0 6 of 20 30% 6 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
3 Oban Elliott 0 19 of 31 61% 32 of 47 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:09
Val Woodburn 0 12 of 24 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 70 of 111 63% 60 of 96 7 of 11 3 of 4 33 of 65 3 of 3 34 of 43
Val Woodburn 23 of 61 37% 19 of 55 2 of 4 2 of 2 15 of 46 5 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 28 of 40 70% 24 of 36 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 29
Val Woodburn 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 4 2 of 4
2 Oban Elliott 23 of 40 57% 19 of 33 4 of 7 0 of 0 19 of 36 1 of 1 3 of 3
Val Woodburn 6 of 20 30% 5 of 17 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 19 of 31 61% 17 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 2 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 11
Val Woodburn 12 of 24 50% 9 of 21 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Angelo picks Oban Elliott as the more well-rounded fighter who can grind out a decision. He notes that Val Woodburn is dangerous but Oban is the better fighter. He plans to bet Val Woodburn inside the distance decision no action, expecting a refund if Oban wins by decision.

Val Woodburn wins inside distance (decision no action)
"Oban is going to be the pick... Oban probably wins a decision which means I'll get a refund if Val doesn't finish the fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott to win by third-round submission. He notes Elliott's solid wrestling and grappling, expecting him to wear down Val Woodburn and eventually finish him. He expresses concerns about Elliott's durability, as he has been nearly finished before, but believes Woodburn's lack of tested grappling will be his downfall. He says he wouldn't lay -300 on Elliott but still picks him.

Elliott by submission, round 3
"I'm going to take obon Elliot to win this fight... I'll say like a third round submission for Oban Elliott here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Cody picks Woodburn as a dog, noting his appearance and the fact that he is dropping to 170, which may be a better fit. He admits he has no interest in betting Elliott at -270 and sees Woodburn as a live underdog. He acknowledges it's a pass for him but picks Woodburn for the show.

"I'll pick Val just strictly based off of his uh his appearance on his tapology page real hard-hitting analysis."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, believing he will break Woodburn down with his attritional style and cardio. He notes Woodburn is dropping to welterweight and is relatively unknown. He looks forward to fading Elliott in the future but picks him here.

"I think obon wins this."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Val Woodburn

Daniel picks Val Woodburn as a value underdog. He explains that he initially dismissed Woodburn but after watching his regional fights, he was impressed by his strength and cardio. He notes that Woodburn fought up at light heavyweight and manhandled opponents. He criticizes Oban Elliott's Contender Series performance, saying he tired and his wrestling may not hold up. He believes Woodburn's power and clinch work will be decisive and that the -286 price on Elliott is too high.

"I don't think you can bet Oban Elliott in this spot at what did you say negative 270 or 280 yeah like that's just an exorbitant for this fight and I think there's some value on Woodburn so I'm gonna …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Jeff picks Oban Elliott, citing his better overall skills and experience. He acknowledges that UK fighters can be overhyped but believes Elliott is the more well-rounded fighter. He is not willing to pay the -286 price, however, and says he won't bet him in real life.

"I will take Elliot probably he's gonna end up overhyped because guys from the UK tend to get overhyped... but he's he's better than Woodburn definitely better experience better fighter overall more well-rounded."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott has experience and grappling advantages. Woodburn is moving down to welterweight for the first time and lacks tools. Elliott grinds out a late finish. The -310 line is too wide, so late-round props are recommended.

late round props for Elliott
"minus 310 is a little bit too wide for me and I think that honing in on those late round props for Elliott will be the key to extracting as much profit from this matchup as possible"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Paul picks Elliott, noting his experience on the European regional scene and his win on Contender Series. He questions Woodburn's durability and cardio after his quick KO loss to Bo Nickal. He believes Elliott's wrestling and well-rounded game will be too much for Woodburn.

"obon Elliott will be my pick here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, noting his skill advantage over Val Woodburn if the fight leaves the first few exchanges. He criticizes Woodburn's strength of schedule, saying his wins are against older, past-it fighters. He predicts Elliott wins by decision, possibly an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round. He also mentions concern about Elliott's weight cut after a brutal KO loss.

Maybe an arm triangle submission in the late second or third round.
"I reckon he will beat Val Woodburn... I think if this fight leaves the first few exchanges he has a massive advantage in terms of skill over Val Woodburn."
Bassil Hafez - Fight History
LOSS vs Oban Elliott
KO (punches) R3 0:40 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Oban Elliott 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 1 65 of 117 55% 66 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Oban Elliott 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Bassil Hafez 0 25 of 49 51% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Oban Elliott 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Oban Elliott 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Bassil Hafez 1 11 of 15 73% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Oban Elliott 24 of 70 34% 16 of 55 2 of 9 6 of 6 23 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 65 of 117 55% 22 of 60 16 of 24 27 of 33 55 of 107 2 of 2 8 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Oban Elliott 10 of 27 37% 7 of 21 1 of 4 2 of 2 9 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 25 of 49 51% 6 of 21 5 of 9 14 of 19 23 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Oban Elliott 12 of 37 32% 8 of 29 0 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 29 of 53 54% 7 of 27 10 of 13 12 of 13 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Oban Elliott 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 11 of 15 73% 9 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez as an underdog, liking his pressure, takedowns, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott has good cardio and tools but is not very dangerous and can be taken down. He believes if Hafez's cardio holds up, he wins. He plans to bet on Hafez if the line moves in his favor.

Angelo says he will bet on Bassil Hafez if the line moves in his favor, indicating a potential bet on the underdog.
"I love his pressure I love the takedowns I'm going to pick him as an underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott but thinks the line is too wide. He notes Elliott's improved takedown defense in his last fight against Preston Parsons and believes he is the cleaner striker. However, he acknowledges that Bassil Hafez has solid wrestling and that Elliott has been taken down by lesser fighters in the past. He predicts a close decision win for Elliott, possibly 29-28.

"I do think this Line's a tad too wide for my liking I do think there's some recency biased here with obon Elliott but with that said I I do think Elliott looked the best he he's ever had in …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Bassil Hafez, citing his durability and grappling. He notes Hafez was competitive with Jack Madalena and has a strong top game. Cody expects Hafez to neutralize Elliott with takedowns and control, possibly winning a decision. He likes the plus money.

"I'll take HZ HZ by decision if you're a split decision kind of guy maybe chase the split decision prop on this one as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Hafez's aggression and willingness to scramble will trouble Elliott. He mentions that Elliott's defensive wrestling and footwork are good, but Hafez's pace and power could overwhelm him. Connor sees it as a close fight but leans toward Hafez.

"Yeah, Hafez just making aggressive decisions is a much bigger problem for somebody whose primary interest is to neutralize at the start of the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Vreeland picks Hafez as his dog, noting he has been fading Oban Elliott from day one. He thinks the plus 200 line is juicy and that Hafez can submit Elliott, who gave up his back to B Woodburn.

Bassil Hafez wins by submission (+600)
"I think that number is Juicy against obon Elliot and I have been an obon Elliott fader since day one"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, expecting him to take over after the first round. He notes Hafez's tendency to gas out and Elliott's improving takedown defense and fight IQ. He acknowledges Hafez's early power but believes Elliott's pace and durability will win him the decision.

decision
"I see Oban taking over the second and third coming out here and uh winning this decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He comments that he doesn't like the Hafez submission prop but does not state his own pick.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Oban Elliott

The host was impressed by Elliott's pressure approach against Preston Parsons, where he turned the takedowns against Parsons and landed big shots. He expects Elliott to replicate that against Hafez, using his speed and technical striking advantage to win a decision as Hafez slows down in deeper waters.

"Elliot surprised me very much last time around against Preston Parsons as he took that pressure approach and turned it against Parsons Stu the takedowns Landing big shots of his own and I expect him to do the same here …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Bassil Hafez, noting the growing plus money and Hafez's durability. He expects a close fight that could go to a split decision, and likes Hafez as an underdog. Paul is waiting for the line to move further before betting.

"I'll wind up with some money on uh basil ofz this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his volume striking and underrated grappling. He notes Bassil Hafez looked awful against Mickey Gall and struggled with takedowns. He believes Elliott will out-volume Hafez on the feet and won't be taken down.

"I'm going to go with auan Elliott he's going to win the fight... I think auan ot's going to out volume him on the feet out busy him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Zane picks Hafez, feeling that Hafez's relentless aggression and power will be too much for Elliott's neutralization style. He notes that Elliott has been knocked out before and that Hafez is faster and harder to dissuade. Zane expects a split decision but leans toward Hafez.

Odds: Elliott opened -156, now -275; Hafez opened +123, now +232. Zane says it feels like a very close fight, split decision either way.
"I'm gonna go with Hafez as well. I just feel in my gut that Elliot his style... it is a level thing."
WIN vs Mickey Gall
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bassil Hafez 0 83 of 143 58% 93 of 153 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Mickey Gall 0 95 of 201 47% 101 of 210 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bassil Hafez 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mickey Gall 0 29 of 63 46% 29 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bassil Hafez 0 26 of 40 65% 26 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Mickey Gall 0 31 of 67 46% 34 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
3 Bassil Hafez 0 33 of 56 58% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Mickey Gall 0 35 of 71 49% 38 of 76 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bassil Hafez 83 of 143 58% 70 of 126 13 of 17 0 of 0 78 of 136 4 of 6 1 of 1
Mickey Gall 95 of 201 47% 83 of 187 7 of 9 5 of 5 91 of 194 1 of 4 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bassil Hafez 24 of 47 51% 19 of 39 5 of 8 0 of 0 21 of 42 3 of 5 0 of 0
Mickey Gall 29 of 63 46% 22 of 55 4 of 5 3 of 3 28 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Bassil Hafez 26 of 40 65% 19 of 32 7 of 8 0 of 0 26 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mickey Gall 31 of 67 46% 27 of 63 2 of 2 2 of 2 29 of 64 0 of 1 2 of 2
3 Bassil Hafez 33 of 56 58% 32 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0 31 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Mickey Gall 35 of 71 49% 34 of 69 1 of 2 0 of 0 34 of 69 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez because he showed well on short notice against Jack Della Maddalena and should be better with a full camp. He notes Mickey Gall has been away for two years with surgery and his development is uncertain. He expects Hafez's grappling and pace to be too much, though he worries the odds might become too wide to bet.

"Basel should win this fight he is going to be the pick I'm going to keep an eye on the odds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Hafez but is hesitant due to the -350 price. He notes Hafez looked good against Della Maddalena but that was on short notice. Cody worries about Hafez's cardio and the possibility of Gall catching a submission. He thinks Gall may have improved during his two-year layoff. Cody plans to keep Hafez low on parlays and warns of buyer beware.

"I think Hafez is good but I don't think he's a great fighter... he's not minus 350 worthy... I got other underdogs on this card and Mickey Gall ain't one of them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Daniel dismisses Gall's back-taking as not elite and thinks Hafez's physicality will prevail. He expects Hafez to take Gall down and avoid giving up his back. He says he'll never pick Gall again.

"I don't think I'll ever pick Micky go to win a UFC fight ever again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

The host sees Hafez as the stronger, more powerful fighter who can win wherever the fight goes. Hafez's wrestling and top control should overpower Gall, and his striking is also a threat given Gall's defensive lapses. Gall's submission threat is noted, but Hafez's strength and improved cardio management should lead to a finish inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Hoff wins this fight pretty much however he wants... I think he wins it inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez, calling him a hard-nosed wrestler with good grappling. He notes Hafez gave Jack Della Maddalena fits in his debut and has never been finished. Paul believes Hafez's style is terrible for Gall, who is a submission specialist but not a good wrestler or striker. He thinks Hafez will take Gall down and control him. Paul was hoping for a better line but still likes Hafez.

"Basil Hafez is a hard-nosed wrestler, good grappler... he's absolute cancer for what Mickey Gall wants to do."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

The MMA Guru picks Bassil Hafez, praising his toughness and grit in his debut against JDM despite clearly losing on damage. He notes Hafez's good chin and takedowns, and believes he can take down Mickey Gall. However, he expresses concern about Hafez's potential PED use since he wasn't tested before his debut. He also questions why Mickey Gall is still in the UFC.

"I'm going to go with him over Mickey G I mean he had great chin JDM was putting some massive shots on him in rounds two and three he stayed in there he kept throwing back"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 83 of 137 60% 149 of 212 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Bassil Hafez 0 32 of 124 25% 48 of 141 3 of 20 15% 0 1 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 13 of 26 50% 41 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Bassil Hafez 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 31 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:19
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 43 62% 47 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Bassil Hafez 0 16 of 56 28% 29 of 70 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 43 of 68 63% 61 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Bassil Hafez 0 7 of 40 17% 7 of 40 0 of 9 0% 0 1 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 83 of 137 60% 55 of 104 27 of 32 1 of 1 68 of 119 14 of 17 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 32 of 124 25% 29 of 117 2 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 118 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 9 of 28 32% 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 43 62% 17 of 31 9 of 11 1 of 1 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 16 of 56 28% 15 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 43 of 68 63% 29 of 52 14 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 55 10 of 12 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 7 of 40 17% 6 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)

Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez

Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena

Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Late first round knockout; would not lay -550
"give me Jack Della late first round knockout this fight should be an absolute Banger there's a reason they move this to the co-main"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

live bet on Hafez after first round
"I gotta back him here the same way I was gonna back him last week the same way I would back him against most of the guys of the division let alone a guy making his debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

"I don't know anything about this guy Liam"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

"I'll pick a fez on the program which is crazy but... I don't hate the madalena fade uh as a as a concept here I don't think it's too too crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

KO late in the first round
"I've got to go with JDM getting his jab going early and eventually seeking the kill at the end of the first round where I think he's gonna get a KO win"
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Angelo picks Bassil Hafez as an underdog, liking his pressure, takedowns, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott has good cardio and tools but is not very dangerous and can be taken down. He believes if Hafez's cardio holds up, he wins. He plans to bet on Hafez if the line moves in his favor.

Angelo says he will bet on Bassil Hafez if the line moves in his favor, indicating a potential bet on the underdog.
"I love his pressure I love the takedowns I'm going to pick him as an underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks Oban Elliott but thinks the line is too wide. He notes Elliott's improved takedown defense in his last fight against Preston Parsons and believes he is the cleaner striker. However, he acknowledges that Bassil Hafez has solid wrestling and that Elliott has been taken down by lesser fighters in the past. He predicts a close decision win for Elliott, possibly 29-28.

"I do think this Line's a tad too wide for my liking I do think there's some recency biased here with obon Elliott but with that said I I do think Elliott looked the best he he's ever had in his last fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Cody picks Bassil Hafez, citing his durability and grappling. He notes Hafez was competitive with Jack Madalena and has a strong top game. Cody expects Hafez to neutralize Elliott with takedowns and control, possibly winning a decision. He likes the plus money.

"I'll take HZ HZ by decision if you're a split decision kind of guy maybe chase the split decision prop on this one as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Hafez's aggression and willingness to scramble will trouble Elliott. He mentions that Elliott's defensive wrestling and footwork are good, but Hafez's pace and power could overwhelm him. Connor sees it as a close fight but leans toward Hafez.

"Yeah, Hafez just making aggressive decisions is a much bigger problem for somebody whose primary interest is to neutralize at the start of the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Vreeland picks Hafez as his dog, noting he has been fading Oban Elliott from day one. He thinks the plus 200 line is juicy and that Hafez can submit Elliott, who gave up his back to B Woodburn.

Bassil Hafez wins by submission (+600)
"I think that number is Juicy against obon Elliot and I have been an obon Elliott fader since day one"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland picks Oban Elliott, expecting him to take over after the first round. He notes Hafez's tendency to gas out and Elliott's improving takedown defense and fight IQ. He acknowledges Hafez's early power but believes Elliott's pace and durability will win him the decision.

decision
"I see Oban taking over the second and third coming out here and uh winning this decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
No clear pick

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He comments that he doesn't like the Hafez submission prop but does not state his own pick.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Oban Elliott

The host was impressed by Elliott's pressure approach against Preston Parsons, where he turned the takedowns against Parsons and landed big shots. He expects Elliott to replicate that against Hafez, using his speed and technical striking advantage to win a decision as Hafez slows down in deeper waters.

"Elliot surprised me very much last time around against Preston Parsons as he took that pressure approach and turned it against Parsons Stu the takedowns Landing big shots of his own and I expect him to do the same here against HZ look for Elliot speed and Technical striking advantage …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Bassil Hafez, noting the growing plus money and Hafez's durability. He expects a close fight that could go to a split decision, and likes Hafez as an underdog. Paul is waiting for the line to move further before betting.

"I'll wind up with some money on uh basil ofz this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

The MMA Guru picks Oban Elliott, citing his volume striking and underrated grappling. He notes Bassil Hafez looked awful against Mickey Gall and struggled with takedowns. He believes Elliott will out-volume Hafez on the feet and won't be taken down.

"I'm going to go with auan Elliott he's going to win the fight... I think auan ot's going to out volume him on the feet out busy him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Zane picks Hafez, feeling that Hafez's relentless aggression and power will be too much for Elliott's neutralization style. He notes that Elliott has been knocked out before and that Hafez is faster and harder to dissuade. Zane expects a split decision but leans toward Hafez.

Odds: Elliott opened -156, now -275; Hafez opened +123, now +232. Zane says it feels like a very close fight, split decision either way.
"I'm gonna go with Hafez as well. I just feel in my gut that Elliot his style... it is a level thing."