UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3

Big Brady picks Cormier to win by decision, expecting him to implement more wrestling and have better cardio. He thinks Cormier is the better fighter and will fight smarter. He wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

Daniel Levi picks Stipe Miocic to win the trilogy. He argues that Stipe made Cormier work hard in the first fight and that Cormier's pace is unsustainable in championship rounds, especially at age 41 with retirement looming. He notes that Stipe is willing to dig deeper and that body shots have historically troubled Cormier. He also points out that if Cormier wrestles more, it will tire him out faster, leading to a Stipe finish.

Cormier is the better wrestler with superior fight IQ and will use a grapple-heavy approach, taking Miocic down repeatedly and wearing him out. He learned from the second fight where he abandoned his wrestling and gassed out; this time he will chain-wrestle and finish via ground-and-pound in the later rounds. Miocic's gas tank has shown issues when forced to wrestle, as seen in the Ngannou fight, and Cormier's top pressure is crushing.

The MMA Guru picks Stipe Miocic by TKO in the third round. He believes Miocic will start body shots earlier than the second fight and that Cormier won't get away with eye pokes. He dismisses arguments that Cormier will wrestle more, noting Miocic stuffed takedowns in previous fights.

Big Brady thinks O'Malley will win a close decision, edging out two of three rounds. He notes O'Malley's striking advantage and Vera's slow starts, but worries about Vera's durability and potential grappling. He considers the line too wide and sees value on Vera.

Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera despite acknowledging O'Malley is the rightful favorite. He is biased toward Vera because Vera was an early guest on his show. He questions O'Malley's chin and how he will react when hit hard, noting Vera's durability against power punchers like Lineker and Yadong. He thinks Vera can take O'Malley into deep waters and get a third-round TKO, similar to Diaz vs McGregor. He was leaning toward Vera at plus 275 but still picks him at plus 240.

O'Malley has superior footwork, distance management, and striking IQ; he will use his reach and speed to keep Vera at range and land a fight-ending shot. Vera is a slow starter and tends to fade in the third round, but O'Malley's cardio is not a major concern. The line is a bit wide at -325, but O'Malley should win by first-round KO.

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley, arguing that Vera consistently loses the first round of his fights, which is dangerous against a powerful striker like O'Malley. He believes O'Malley's length and precision will catch Vera, who brings his guard up high, leaving him open to front kicks.

Big Brady picks Rozenstruik to knock out dos Santos in the first round. He cites dos Santos' declining chin and poor fight IQ, while Rozenstruik has power and durability. He dismisses dos Santos' takedown threat due to lack of recent takedowns.

Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to knock out Junior dos Santos. He believes JDS is past his prime, fighting for a paycheck, and showed a lack of heart in the Curtis Blaydes loss. He notes that JDS hasn't landed a takedown since 2014 and will likely stand and trade with Rozenstruik, who is the better striker at this point. He also mentions that Rozenstruik's clinch and ground game are weak, but JDS won't exploit them.

Rozenstruik is the more calculated and educated striker with power and youth advantage. Dos Santos has declining chin and poor striking defense, often keeping his hands down. Rozenstruik will set up shots with leg kicks and counters, eventually clipping JDS. Dos Santos is a bad matchup for JDS stylistically, as he struggles against pure strikers with power.

The MMA Guru picks Junior dos Santos by first-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes JDS will use his technical striking to earn respect, then shoot for a double-leg takedown and dominate on the ground. He notes Rozenstruik is coming off a quick KO loss and may be rushed back.

Big Brady is impressed with Herbert Burns' improvements and superior grappling. He expects Burns to submit Pineda in the first round, noting Pineda has been submitted five times. He thinks the fight won't go to decision.

Daniel Levi picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pineda has never been to a decision (0-6 in decisions) and has been submitted six times. He believes Pineda's scrambling style is a bad matchup against Burns' elite jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Pineda's recent wins were overturned due to PEDs, and he may be deflated under USADA testing. He cites Burns' performance against Dunham as evidence of his submission prowess.

Pineda is a live dog with strong wrestling and top pressure; he has not been submitted since 2010 and has the experience to survive Burns' early submission threats. Burns' recent finishes are against over-the-hill competition, while Pineda is still in his prime. The line is too wide; Pineda should be closer to +120. He will play it safe, rack up rounds, and win a decision.

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns by submission in the first round, calling it the surest win on the card. He highlights Burns' knockout of Nate Landwehr with a knee up the middle as evidence of his finishing ability, and dismisses Pineda as a past-prime cheater.

Big Brady already bet Merab by decision at -130. He thinks Merab's relentless takedowns will wear down Dodson, though he worries about judging favoring striking. He expects Merab to get about nine takedowns and win a comfortable decision.

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Dodson's power and takedown defense but believes Merab's relentless pace and cardio will overwhelm Dodson over three rounds. He notes that Dodson has a history of losing close decisions and that Merab's takedown volume will eventually wear him down. He also mentions that Merab's chin is solid and his recovery is excellent.

Dodson has the speed and power to capitalize on Dvalishvili's poor striking defense; Merab is hittable and gets taken down but doesn't control opponents, allowing Dodson to get back up. Dodson carries power into later rounds and can land a bomb. The line should be closer to -150 for Merab; Dodson's inside the distance prop at +400 is intriguing.

The MMA Guru picks John Dodson by KO in the second or third round. He argues that Dvalishvili's takedown-heavy style will tire him out, leaving him vulnerable to Dodson's power. He notes that Dodson has faced elite competition and can survive the early grappling.

Big Brady expects Jim Miller to get the fight to the ground and submit Pichel in the first round. He notes Pichel's poor takedown defense and thinks Miller is dangerous early. He sees value on Miller as an underdog.

Daniel Levi leans toward Jim Miller. He thinks Miller is the better fighter and can win a decision if he doesn't empty his gas tank in the first round. He notes that Pichel is a point fighter who doesn't push a high pace, which may not gas Miller out. However, he acknowledges Pichel's toughness and that Miller historically loses when fights go past the first round.

Miller has the jiu-jitsu advantage and can catch Pichel from the bottom or hurt him on the feet. Pichel has ring rust and Miller is active. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Miller by submission or Pichel by TKO. Miller's submission threat is real, and he has power in his hands. Confidence is low, but Miller gets the nod.

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by submission in the first round, citing Miller's recent activity and veteran experience. He believes Pichel fights infrequently and may not be fully committed, while Miller is in shape and has a submission win over a common opponent.

Big Brady thinks Jandiroba will get takedowns and control the fight on the ground, but he is not impressed with her striking. He notes Herrig is the better striker and could win if she stuffs takedowns. He sees value on Herrig as an underdog.

Daniel Levi picks Virna Jandiroba to win by submission. He believes Jandiroba is a specialist on the ground and will get takedowns against Herrig, who is coming off a two-year layoff and ACL surgery. He notes that Herrig has been submitted before and that Jandiroba's takedown game, though basic, should be enough. He also mentions that if Jandiroba can't get takedowns, she could struggle, but he expects her to succeed.

Jandiroba is a high-level grappler with heavy top pressure and a strong submission game; she will take Herrig down with double legs and work for a finish. Herrig is returning from a two-year layoff and ACL surgery, and her takedown defense is questionable. Jandiroba may win by submission or decision, but she should dominate on the ground.

The MMA Guru picks Felice Herrig, despite criticizing her skills, because she is bigger, stronger, and has fought better competition. He notes that Jandiroba's record is padded with cans and that Herrig had a training camp booked previously, so she is prepared.

Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.

Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.

Big Brady thinks Souza is faster and more active, with better takedowns. He expects her to win a decision but acknowledges Yoder could make it close. He is not very confident and notes the line should be closer.

Daniel Levi picks Livinha Souza to win. He believes Souza is the tougher fighter and will win the extra scrambles when both are fatigued. He notes that Yoder has a history of folding in gritty fights and doesn't utilize her length well. He also mentions that Souza has better boxing and jiu-jitsu, and that Yoder's path to victory requires a perfect performance.

Yoder has the reach and height advantage, decent takedown defense, and is crafty on the ground. Souza has been reversed and put in compromising positions in past fights. Yoder can keep the fight on the feet or hold her own on the mat. The fight will be close and likely go to a decision; Yoder is the value side at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Ashley Yoder, emphasizing her significant reach advantage (6.5 inches) and size. He dismisses Souza's record as built on weak competition and notes Yoder's experience against better opponents.

Big Brady thinks Chris Daukaus is the more skilled striker and hits harder. He criticizes Parker Porter's lack of fight shape and believes Daukaus will knock him out in the first round. He notes both have been knocked out before but favors Daukaus' power.

Daniel Levi picks Parker Porter. He notes that Chris Daukaus is not as talented as his brother Kyle, and that Porter is the bigger, more physical fighter. He expects Porter to use his size and power to get takedowns and control the fight. He also mentions that Daukaus has been knocked out before and that Porter's game plan is straightforward.

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter based on experience, noting that Porter has fought higher-level competition outside the UFC, including Gabriel Gonzaga. He dismisses both fighters as unskilled but believes Porter's experience on short notice gives him the edge.

Big Brady was impressed by Tony Kelley's performance against Kevin Aguilar, noting his crisp striking and takedowns. He thinks Kelley is the better defensive striker and has a size advantage. However, he admits the pick might change after more research and is not confident due to limited tape on Kamaka.

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win his UFC debut. He believes Kamaka is the superior athlete and more well-rounded fighter. He notes Kamaka's aggressive style, body work, and cardio from his LFA fight. He criticizes Tony Kelley's takedown defense and tendency to play off his back. He expects Kamaka to push the pace and win a decision or late finish.