Fight card

UFC 325

February 01, 2026 Qudos Bank Arena Sydney, Australia
Alexander Volkanovski

Alexander Volkanovski W

28-4
Decision R5 5:00
Fight 1 VS Featherweight Completed

Alexander Volkanovski

No odds available.

Diego Lopes

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Alexander Volkanovski

Age37
Height5' 6"
Reach71.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Diego Lopes

Age31
Height5' 11"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alexander Volkanovski

5.99SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.31SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
1.63TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Diego Lopes

3.83SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
4.56SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.88TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Angelo picks Volkanovski to win the rematch, citing his insane cardio, high fight IQ, and ability to game plan. He believes Volkanovski will wrestle more this time to take away Diego's distance, where he landed his best shots. Angelo acknowledges Diego's dangerous grappling and striking, and notes that Diego was close to finishing Volkanovski in the first fight. He suggests a prop bet on Diego Lopes winning inside the distance, as you get a refund if he doesn't and get paid if he does.

Diego Lopes wins inside the distance (refund if not)
"The bet has always and will always be Diego Lopez wins inside the distance because you get a refund if he doesn't and you get paid if he does."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Big Brady leans toward Diego Lopes for the upset, citing that Lopes needs to be more aggressive and make it a 'car crash' to touch Volkanovski's chin, which has been cracked. He notes Lopes dropped Volkanovski in the first fight and started turning it on in the later rounds. However, he acknowledges Volkanovski wins a decision 90% of the time if it goes the distance, so Lopes must finish. Brady predicts a second-round knockout for Lopes.

Lopes by KO in round 2
"I'm going to lean Lopez here. I'm going to say he does touch the chin. ... Give me Lopez here by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Cody believes Volkanovski will win a decision similar to the first fight, citing his superior striking volume and takedown defense. He notes that Volkanovski landed 158 significant strikes in the first fight and that Lopes' ground game was ineffective. He acknowledges Volkanovski's age and potential decline but sees no evidence of regression yet. He picks Volkanovski by decision.

Volkanovski by decision +170
"I still think Vulcanoski does enough to get the job done so one I do have Vulk but two I don't think he knocks out Lopez and I don't think he's miss Lopez so it's a vulk by …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Connor picks Diego Lopes because he believes that Volkanovski is older and more vulnerable, and that Lopes has a puncher's chance that becomes more likely the more times they fight. He notes that Lopes is insanely fast and durable, and that Volkanovski's defensive decisions have worsened. However, he acknowledges that Volkanovski is still the more technical fighter and that Lopes could easily lose.

Odds: Lopes +124, Volkanovski -145. Connor mentions the odds are a 'loaded coin' and that Lopes is bound to win one of these matchups eventually.
"I'm going to pick him at this point, just because I think that the UFC is literally like, if he loses, they're literally going to do it again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Daniel Vreeland picks Volkanovski to outclass Lopes again, citing his superior fight IQ, feinting game, and all-around skills. He notes that Lopes needs a finish to win, as he has a negative record in decisions, but Volkanovski is tough to put away and has already proven he can handle Lopes' best shots. Vreeland acknowledges Lopes' dangerous finishing ability but believes Volkanovski's adjustments and experience will prevail.

"I think Vulk's going to pick this man apart. I really do."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

James picks Diego Lopes to win the rematch, citing Lopes' momentum from his KO of Jean Silva, improved camp, and admission of ego issues in the first fight. He believes Lopes will push a higher pace and force pocket exchanges where he can land a knockout. James notes Volkanovski's age and potential decline, and that the close odds (Volk -155) suggest the fight is a toss-up. He also mentions Lopes' durability and submission threat.

"I'm actually going to pick Diego Lopez for this one. I'm going to pick him for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski's fight IQ and tactical approach will allow him to execute a game plan similar to their first fight: jab, leg kick, takedowns to disrupt Lopes' rhythm. He out-struck Lopes 158 to 63 in their first bout, landing at 61% in rounds three and five. Lopes may be more aggressive this time, but Volkanovski's submission defense and ability to stick and move should neutralize that. The host notes that if Lopes wins, it likely comes by knockout, but he favors the better overall fighter. He suggests waiting for better odds on Volkanovski during fight week.

Volkanovski by decision likely; Lopes by knockout if he wins; wait for better odds on Volkanovski
"I'm going to go Alexander Vulcganowski and still featherweight champion Mr. Vulcanowski."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Paul argues that Volkanovski clearly won the first fight 4-1 and that the line is too close given that result. He acknowledges Lopes' improvements and Volkanovski's age but believes the champion's skills and experience will prevail. He sees a similar outcome, possibly a 48-47 decision.

"I just watched this fight. It was fairly decisive going one way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes by TKO in round two, citing his performance in the first fight where he dropped Volkanovski. He believes Volkanovski's age, layoff, and lack of motivation will be factors, while Lopes has improved and has a lottery ticket mentality. He expects Lopes to finish him this time.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez to put away Alexander Vulcganowski by TKO in this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Zane picks Volkanovski, arguing that Lopez has atrocious defense and poor footwork, and that Volkanovski will walk him into jabs and overhand rights. He notes that Lopez might win with a puncher's chance due to his durability and speed, but believes Volkanovski's technical superiority will prevail. He also points out that Lopez is an opportunist who starts hot but fades if he doesn't get an early finish.

Odds: Volkanovski -145, Lopes +124. Zane mentions the odds but does not make a betting recommendation.
"Lopez is not a good game planner. He has atrocious defense and poor footwork. Volkanovski is going to walk him into jabs and overhand rights."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Benoît Saint Denis

Benoît Saint Denis W

17-3
KO R2 4:45
Fight 2 VS Lightweight Completed

Benoît Saint Denis

No odds available.

Dan Hooker

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Benoît Saint Denis

Age30
Height5' 11"
Reach73"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Dan Hooker

Age36
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Benoît Saint Denis

5.62SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
4.09SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
4.19TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Dan Hooker

4.82SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.94SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.68TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
77.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis, citing his non-stop pressure, well-timed takedowns, and heavy top control. He notes that Dan Hooker's takedown defense is solid overall but fails against better wrestlers, and BSD is relentless. Angelo acknowledges Hooker's heart and striking but questions his motivation and game-planning. He expects a war and thinks BSD's style will overwhelm Hooker.

"I am gonna pick Benois Saint Deni. I think the non-stop pressure combined with his ability to get this fight to the ground, his unwillingness to back up, I think that's all going to suit him really well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Big Brady is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, believing there's a big levels difference on the mat. He notes Dan Hooker has looked poor off his back against wrestlers like Islam Makhachev and Armen Serukian, and Saint Denis will take him down and submit him. He also thinks Saint Denis can knock Hooker out, as Arnold Allen and Michael Chandler have done. Brady predicts a second-round submission.

Saint Denis by submission in round 2
"I think Saint Denis is starting to finally gain back some momentum ... I think he's going to take down Dan Hooker and get him out of there in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Cody is switching his pick to Dan Hooker as a value play, despite acknowledging the risks. He notes that Saint Denis is hittable and has shown defensive flaws, and that Hooker has faced elite competition and has the toughness to survive takedowns. He expects a close fight and thinks Hooker can win a decision or even get a finish if Saint Denis tires. However, he admits he doesn't love the pick and it will be near the bottom of his parlay.

"I think I'm going to switch my pick from Ben Saint to Dan Hooker. And this might be what I was talking about last week. I don't want to just take these random value plays anymore."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Connor picks Hooker because he believes Saint Denis falls apart when put on the back foot and is not a clean finisher. He thinks Hooker can survive the early onslaught and rally back, as Saint Denis has never shown an ability to withstand a comeback. However, he acknowledges that Hooker is not as durable as Poirier and could get run over early, making it a 50/50 fight.

Odds: Hooker +285, Saint Denis -350. Connor notes that Saint Denis's win over Daryush is not as impressive as it seems.
"I am going to pick Hooker because Benoit Saint Denis does fall apart so bad on the back foot. And because Benoit Saint Denis is not a clean finisher."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Daniel Vreeland is extremely confident in Saint Denis, predicting he will run through Hooker and finish him. He believes Hooker is past his prime and overranked, while Saint Denis is a violent finisher with relentless pressure and a strong ground game. Vreeland even bet on Saint Denis at minus 250 and made a bold prediction that Hooker will never win another UFC fight.

"I think Benois Santine is going to come out here and destroy Dan Hooker, embarrass him in violent fashion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

James picks BSD to win, acknowledging his bias as a New Zealander rooting for Hooker. He believes BSD's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Hooker at this stage, and that the fight won't go to decision. He notes Hooker is the better striker but BSD can land takedowns and submissions. James is hesitant because he wants Hooker to win but thinks BSD's path is more likely.

fight doesn't go to decision
"Gun to my head, I'm going to pick BSD to win the fight. I think the wrestling and the grappling is going to be a little bit too much for Dan at this stage of his career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

Saint Denis is a talented grappler with good finishing ability, likely to get a submission within the first two rounds. Hooker has decent defensive grappling but may struggle with Saint Denis's smothering style. The host prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at -220 over the moneyline chalk. Hooker's striking and cardio could be factors if he survives early, but Saint Denis is expected to get the submission.

fight doesn't go to decision (-220); Saint Denis by submission; Hooker round 2/3 props at +500/+1800
"I think Sandee wins. I think he gets that submission within the first round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Paul hates the -350 price on Saint Denis and prefers the fight not to go the distance, as Saint Denis fights are almost always finishes. He leans toward Hooker if forced to pick a moneyline side, citing Saint Denis's tendency to get hit and Hooker's durability. He also mentions the time zone difference as a potential factor.

Fight doesn't go to decision
"I hate BSD minus 350. I think the fight doesn't go to decision is my favorite play in this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Benoît Saint Denis

The Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with the odds. He highlights Saint Denis's grappling, power, and aggression, predicting he will submit Dan Hooker. He notes Hooker's recent damage and broken nose, and believes Saint Denis's pressure and body kicks will be too much.

submission
"I'm going to go with Benoisant Dener."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Hooker

Zane also picks Hooker, citing Saint Denis's inability to fight going backward and his lack of defense or footwork on the retreat. He notes that Hooker has the counters for a bullheaded wrestling game and that if Hooker survives the first round, he has a good chance to finish or win a decision. However, he admits that Hooker could easily get trounced early, as seen in fights against Chandler and Allen.

Odds: Hooker +285, Saint Denis -350. Zane mentions that Saint Denis's win over Daryush is not as impressive as people think.
"I'm also going to pick Hooker. I just feel like it's the fact that he doesn't like to fight going backwards. He doesn't counter. He doesn't know how to throw back."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Maurício Ruffy

Maurício Ruffy W

13-2
KO R2 4:30
Fight 3 VS Lightweight Completed

Maurício Ruffy

No odds available.

Rafael Fiziev

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Maurício Ruffy

Age29
Height5' 11"
Reach75"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Rafael Fiziev

Age33
Height5' 8"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Maurício Ruffy

4.19SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
4.09SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Rafael Fiziev

4.71SLpM
52.0%Str. Acc.
4.84SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Angelo picks Rafael Fiziev, stating he is the better traditional striker and has shown he can wrestle and grapple, which is a key advantage. He notes that Ruffy is creative and powerful but was frozen by takedowns in his last fight. Fiziev has dog in him and made adjustments in his last fight. Angelo sees value at minus 115 given their resumes.

minus 115 seems like solid value
"Raphael Faziv is the pick and minus 115 given their resumes honestly seems like solid value here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Big Brady slightly leans toward Maurício Ruffy in a close striker's delight. He notes Fiziev has slowed down in the third round historically and didn't look great against Gachi after injury. Ruffy is a high-level striker with flashy spinning attacks and won't fade. Brady sees it as a 29-28 split decision either way, but expects Ruffy to take over late.

"I'm going to ever so slightly lean with Mauricio Hufi to win a very close decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Cody believes Fiziev is undervalued as a slight underdog. He criticizes Ruffy's reliance on flashy knockouts and low volume, noting that Ruffy was outstruck by James Llontop and only landed 3 significant strikes before his wheel kick KO of Bobby Green. He praises Fiziev's veteran savvy, volume, and ability to mix in wrestling, predicting a close decision win for Fiziev.

"Phys's he's got more volume by the numbers, but not like a runaway amount. The difference is if you want to go punch for punch with Raphael Phys, he lands eyecatching stuff, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, arguing that Ruffy is a smoke-and-mirrors fighter who is not a natural counter puncher and struggles when pressured. He notes that Fiziev is a superior technician with good takedown defense and that Ruffy's only path to victory is a lucky knockout. He also points out that Ruffy's wins are against slow or limited opponents, while Fiziev has fought elite competition.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Connor is surprised Fiziev is the underdog and notes the line is moving.
"I have to pick Fiziev. It's just, yeah, totally. There's a well fighting a superior technician who is super fast and who's only real weakness is a sort of like loss of cohesion late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

Daniel Vreeland picks Ruffy as a dog, viewing the line as a market overcorrection. He believes Ruffy is a special striker who can match Fiziev's speed and technique, and that Fiziev has slowed down since his ACL surgery. Vreeland also notes that Ruffy has improved by training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev lacks a ground threat, making this a striking match where Ruffy can win.

"I took Mauricio Hui at plus 107 odds. I put one unit on it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Maurício Ruffy

James picks Ruffy to win by KO, citing Ruffy's youth, distance control, and timing advantage. He believes Fiziev is on a downtrend and may be hesitant to engage. James notes Ruffy's training with Volkanovski and that Fiziev's wrestling won't be effective. He sees Ruffy's durability and power as key factors.

"I got Rua in this one, boys. I got Rua via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Fiziev is a nasty Muay Thai striker with good speed, combinations, and countering ability. He has improved his wrestling, as shown in his last fight where he landed four takedowns. Ruffy struggles with grapplers and was broken mentally by Saint Denis. Fiziev's durability is ironclad, and he should push the pace, counter effectively, and mix in takedowns. The host is baffled that Fiziev is the underdog and expects a finish in round two or three.

Fiziev by knockout round 2 or 3
"There it is. Raphael Fizz by knockout round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ruffy is overvalued due to his flashy style and that Fiziev is a more complete fighter. He highlights Fiziev's ability to mix in takedowns and his experience against top competition. He expects Fiziev to win a close decision.

"I think Faze can hang with this guy on the feet. Ruffy if he wins will win like big huge exciting kind of moments but veteran savvy sneak in a takedown round and kind of just scrape by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The Guru picks Rafael Fiziev, citing his superior striking, timing, and ability to chop at opponents with kicks. He notes Ruffy's weaknesses in fundamentals and predicts Fiziev will win by decision, possibly 29-28. He expects Ruffy to have a good third round but Fiziev's technical edge will prevail.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with FizzV, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, emphasizing that Ruffy is limited strategically and relies on time and space to set up shots. He notes that Fiziev is a capable, controlled striker who can crowd Ruffy and take him down if needed. He also mentions that Ruffy's takedown defense is poor and that Fiziev's only losses are to elite fighters like Gaethje and Gamrot.

Odds: Fiziev +105, Ruffy -125. Zane notes that Fiziev was the underdog but the line is quickly shifting.
"I think that Fiziev will crowd him. He's just the more technical striker and the guys that have beat him are really, you know, it's Justin Gaethje who could take a war to him and then a leg …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tallison Teixeira

Tallison Teixeira W

9-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Heavyweight Completed

Tallison Teixeira

No odds available.

Tai Tuivasa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Tallison Teixeira

Age26
Height6' 7"
Reach83.0"
Weight258 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tai Tuivasa

Age33
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight264 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Tallison Teixeira

5.02SLpM
64.0%Str. Acc.
3.86SApM
42.0%Str. Def.
2.48TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa

3.66SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
4.97SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira but is hesitant due to Tai Tuivasa's weight and layoff concerns. He notes Tai's takedown defense is non-existent and he's on a 5-fight losing skid, while Teixeira is massive and athletic. However, he says if Tai looks good at weigh-ins, he would flip the pick. He emphasizes waiting for weigh-ins.

wait for weigh-ins
"I have to pick Talson to Sher. Tai is fun. He's dangerous, but he is falling behind on the scorecards. He's getting finished."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Big Brady picks Tallison Teixeira by first-round knockout, citing Tai Tuivasa's 0-5 skid and lack of activity (1.5 years out). He notes Teixeira is much bigger and longer with power, and Tuivasa may not be taking his career seriously. Brady expects the fight to end in round one with someone getting served brutally.

Teixeira by KO in round 1
"I'm going to say Terara by first round knockout ... I just can't pick Tai to Vasa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody is leaning toward Tuivasa as a value play, despite his five-fight losing streak and long layoff. He notes that Teixeira has never been out of the first round and was nearly finished by Derrick Lewis. He believes Tuivasa has the power to knock out anyone and that Teixeira's chin is untested. However, he admits it's a risky pick and not one he's confident in.

"I think I'm just gonna take to Ivasa, but um on Tech Sera, we made picks for the purposes of the show."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Connor picks Tuivasa because he believes Teixeira is raw and not ready for this step up, and that Tuivasa's experience and toughness could carry him. He notes that Tuivasa has fought elite heavyweights and can survive early exchanges, while Teixeira has never been past the first round. However, he acknowledges that Tuivasa has not improved and could still lose.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Connor questions why the odds are widening in favor of Teixeira given his quick loss to Lewis.
"I guess I'm going to take Tuivasa to break this streak. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Teixeira due to Tuivasa's poor form and weight issues, but he is not confident because Teixeira is unproven and has shown defensive flaws. He notes that Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and may be out of shape, but he is still dangerous. Vreeland calls it a 'lean' and says the minus 300 price is not a great value.

"I'm going to lean towards Tara. Minus 300 ain't much of a lean price though, you know?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

James picks Teixeira to win by KO, noting Tuivasa's five-fight losing streak and lack of focus on MMA. He believes Teixeira is a better striker with more weapons, though he has defensive flaws. James thinks Teixeira will finish Tuivasa early, possibly in round one, but acknowledges Tuivasa's puncher's chance.

"I got to go with Teixeira via KO in round one, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7 BJJ black belt with knockout power, but he can also grapple. Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and seems half-invested in fighting. Teixeira should look to take the fight to the ground where Tuivasa is susceptible to submissions. The host likes Teixeira by submission at +700, noting Tuivasa's vulnerability to submissions. Teixeira's size and physicality will be too much for the fading Tuivasa.

Teixeira by submission (+700)
"I think Terara runs through Tuvasa. ... give me Talison Terara. I'm going to say by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Paul is siding with Teixeira despite not loving the -370 price. He questions Tuivasa's commitment and conditioning after a long layoff and weight gain. He notes that Teixeira is a big heavyweight with power and that Tuivasa has been quitting in recent fights. He expects a first-round knockout either way but prefers the favorite.

"I find hard even with the nice plus money that's behind him, I would find it hard to back him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa despite being an underdog, citing his power, calf kicks, and experience. He believes Tuivasa can drop Teixeira and finish him in the first round, comparing it to a Stephan Struve performance. He acknowledges Teixeira's elbows but thinks Tuivasa's low kicks will be key.

first round TKO, calf kicks as weapon
"I'm going to say that Tituasa gets this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Zane also picks Tuivasa, arguing that Teixeira is a prospect who has never won a fight outside the first round and that Tuivasa is tough enough to not get finished early. He notes that Tuivasa will keep doing the same thing for three rounds if needed, while Teixeira may fall apart if he doesn't get an early finish. However, he calls the fight pointless and bad matchmaking.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Zane comments that the odds are spreading in favor of Teixeira despite his quick loss.
"I think I will too. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Quillan Salkilld

Quillan Salkilld W

12-1
Submission R1 3:02
Fight 5 VS Lightweight Completed

Quillan Salkilld

No odds available.

Jamie Mullarkey

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Quillan Salkilld

Age26
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Jamie Mullarkey

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Quillan Salkilld

5.16SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
3.24SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
7.95TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Jamie Mullarkey

4.1SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
4.28SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
2.46TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Angelo picks Quillan Salkilld, citing his well-rounded skills, good takedown defense, and BJJ black belt. He notes that Jamie Mullarkey has no chin and will likely look to wrestle, but Salkilld's takedown defense and jiu-jitsu are good. He acknowledges Mullarkey's volume but says without a chin he can't hang. He plans to bet on Salkilld once odds are available.

will probably have a bet on him
"Qualin should win this fight. I'm going to pick him to win. I We don't have odds yet. But once we do, I will probably have a bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Big Brady is very confident in Quillan Salkilld, calling Jamie Mullarkey's chin the second worst in the UFC. He notes Mullarkey was running from Rolando Bedoya and is likely finished. Salkilld has first-round knockouts in his last two fights, and Brady expects the same here.

Salkilld by KO in round 1
"Give me Quill and Sill by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Cody is very confident in Salkilld, citing his well-rounded game, takedown defense, and power. He notes that Mullarkey has a weak chin and has been knocked out by lesser punchers. He expects Salkilld to win by knockout, likely in the second round.

Salkilld by KO
"Salk is like minus 900, but if you go over into the props section here, by KO is like minus 125. I got money on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Connor picks Salkilld, describing him as a creative counter puncher with good eyes and diverse tools. He notes that Mullarkey is slow, not durable, and relies on crashing into opponents, which plays into Salkilld's strengths. He also mentions that Salkilld finished Haqparast, who also finished Mullarkey, indicating a clear stylistic advantage.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Connor notes the odds are wide but justifies the booking as a step back for Salkilld to gain experience.
"Salkilld is a counter puncher. If you give him space, he will eat you up with creative things. He will make you have to make decisions."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Salkilld to dominate and likely finish Mullarkey. He praises Salkilld's durability, knockout power, and wrestling, while noting that Mullarkey is a veteran past his prime. Vreeland expects Salkilld to either knock him out or outwork him en route to a clear win.

"I'm expecting pure dominance by Quinnland Southfield."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

James picks Salkilld to win by finish, calling him a rising force in the lightweight division. He believes Mullarkey is an aging veteran with durability issues and that Salkilld will run through him in round one or two.

"I'm taking Quilan Sal Keel here all day long via finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Salkilld is a BJJ black belt with dangerous striking, as shown by his headkick knockout of Nazaret Hackparast. He is on a 10-fight win streak and has good cardio. Mullarkey is a veteran but has durability issues and is on short notice. The host expects Salkilld to win but thinks the line is too high; he prefers the over 2.5 rounds at +125 because Mullarkey may grapple and make it competitive early. Salkilld should pull away late for a decision or late finish.

over 2.5 rounds (+125); Salkilld by decision
"I think Skild will end up landing more damage throughout this matchup. And I think he ends up winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Paul agrees, highlighting Mullarkey's history of getting knocked out and Salkilld's impressive wrestling and striking. He notes that Salkilld is younger, bigger, and more durable. He expects a finish, possibly by knockout.

"I like this kid. I think he's getting better. I faded him a little bit against Hack Ross last time out thinking Nazarro would have a lot of veteran savvy... but I like him a lot and nine …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

The Guru picks Quillan Salkilld, calling him a level above Jamie Mullarkey. He notes Salkilld's finishing ability and predicts a first-round TKO, comparing it to Ruffy's win over Mullarkey. He acknowledges the odds are excessive but agrees with the pick.

first round TKO, odds -1200
"I think Quill and Sfield's going to win this one by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Quillan Salkilld

Zane picks Salkilld, agreeing that Mullarkey is a bad matchup for himself. He notes that Mullarkey has to be able to crash into opponents with strikes, clinch, and wrestling, but Salkilld can stop him at any point and strand him in a vulnerable position. He also points out that Mullarkey's wins are against older or slower fighters, while dynamic athletes tend to catch him.

Odds: Salkilld -900, Mullarkey +600. Zane says the odds are wide but it's a good booking for Salkilld's development.
"That seems like a nightmare matchup for Jamie Mullarkey. Slow, not durable, has to be able to do everything."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Billy Elekana

Billy Elekana W

10-2
Submission R2 3:18
Fight 6 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Billy Elekana

No odds available.

Junior Tafa

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Billy Elekana

Age31
Height6' 3"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Junior Tafa

Age29
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight240 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Billy Elekana

2.71SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
3.59SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.85TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Junior Tafa

3.41SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.55SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Angelo picks Billy Elekana, stating he is the better overall MMA fighter with solid takedown defense and patient striking. He acknowledges Junior Tafa's kickboxing skills but notes his takedown defense is a huge hole. He warns that the odds are steep at -225 and that Tafa could have success if Elekana tries to strike, but Elekana can adjust.

"Billy is the better MMA fighter, so I'm gonna go that route. I'm gonna pick him to win here because he's got the better overall MMA skills."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Big Brady is confident in Billy Elekana, citing Junior Tafa's poor grappling (white belt) and Elekana's submission win over Kevin Christian. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and submit him in the first round, as Tafa made Tuco Tokos look like Khabib.

Elekana by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna take Billy Alicana to win this fight. I'm gonna take Alicana to win by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Cody is confident in Elekana, citing Tafa's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Elekana has good grappling and submission skills, and expects him to take Tafa down and submit him in the second round. He acknowledges Elekana is not a world-beater but sees this as a favorable matchup.

Elekana by submission
"I do feel like at some point Billy gets him to the ground and grabs a submission. He's got a good rear naked choke."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Elekana. He emphasizes that Tafa's striking is not technical enough and he has no grappling, so Elekana should win if he doesn't freeze. Connor also comments on the odds, suggesting Elekana is overvalued.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yeah, I gotta pick Billy, Alakana. Yeah, but you know if Alakana doesn't if he if he freezes the way he can then Tafa could melt him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Daniel Vreeland picks Elekana despite initially doubting him, citing Tafa's abysmal ground game. He believes Elekana can take Tafa down and finish quickly, though he warns that if Elekana bangs on the feet, he risks getting knocked out. Vreeland is surprised to be picking Elekana but sees a clear path to victory.

"I never thought in a million years I'd say this, but I'm actually picking Billy Alicana to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

James picks Elekana to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and finish what Sean Sherif started, likely with a rear-naked choke in round one.

"Billy Elekana is probably going to be able to take him down and get the choke here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Elekana is a solid BJJ specialist with good striking and timing. Tafa has poor takedown defense and is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in his submission losses. Elekana should evade Tafa's power shots, get takedowns, and find a submission within a round and a half. The host likes Elekana by submission at +210, noting that Tafa is a favorite fade.

Elekana by submission (+210)
"I think Alecana is just too slick. I think he'll evade those big shots, get in another takedown, get to a submission position, and I think shortly thereafter, he'll be able to find the tap here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Paul agrees, noting that Tafa has consistently gassed out and been finished in his UFC fights. He believes Elekana's grappling will be the difference and predicts a submission win in the second round.

Elekana by submission
"Elano by sub maybe in round two is kind of how I kind of see this fight playing out as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Billy Elekana

The Guru picks Billy Elekana, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Elekana's technical level, grappling, and toughness, noting his performance against Bogdan Guskov. He expects Elekana to submit Junior Tafa in the first round, as Tafa is less technical and relies on brawling.

first round submission
"First round submission for Billy Alakana."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Billy Elekana

Zane picks Billy Elekana because he sees Elekana as a reasonable light heavyweight prospect with decent athleticism and durability, despite his loss to Bogdan Guskov. He believes Elekana's grappling advantage will be decisive, as Junior Tafa cannot wrestle or grapple and relies on one big blitz. Zane notes that if Elekana freezes, Tafa could win, but overall Elekana should win by taking the fight to the ground.

Tafa opened at +150, now +215; Elekana opened at -175, now -255. Zane says he would not make those odds wider, implying Elekana is overvalued.
"I gotta pick Billy, Alakana. Yeah, but you know if Alakana doesn't if he if he freezes the way he can then Tafa could melt him, but Tafa just can't wrestle and he can't grapple."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cam Rowston

Cam Rowston W

15-3
KO R2 4:08
Fight 7 VS Middleweight Completed

Cam Rowston

No odds available.

Cody Brundage

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Cam Rowston

Age31
Height6' 3"
Reach78"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cody Brundage

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Cam Rowston

4.26SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.62SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.5TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cody Brundage

2.26SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.02SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.88TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Angelo picks Cam Rowston, citing his durability and ability to weather the storm. He notes that Cody Brundage is talented but inconsistent, with cardio and durability issues. He thinks Rowston will survive the first round and take over in the second and third. He says no bet because he wants to root for Cody without worrying about money.

no bet
"Cam is going to be the pick. I like Cody a lot. I'm going to be rooting for Cody, but if I just have to look at this objectively and say who I think wins, it's going to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Big Brady is confident in Cam Rowston, praising his grappling and knockout power. He notes Rowston is long, rangy, and has submissions over half his wins. He sees no path for Cody Brundage, predicting a second-round submission.

Rowston by submission in round 2
"Give me Camston. I think Cameron Alston wins this fight. ... I'll say he wins this fight by submission. Second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Cody is very confident in Rowston, criticizing Brundage's tendency to quit and find ways to lose. He notes that Rowston is a big middleweight with good cardio and power, and that Brundage has been outworked and finished in most of his fights. He expects Rowston to win by knockout or decision.

"I think Roston absolutely cooks some. Do I love the money line? Well, like I was hoping to get a better price... but at this number, it's like I'm just going to have to bite the bullet and …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Rowston. He emphasizes that Brundage is a bad fighter who should not be in the UFC, and Rowston's size and awkwardness will be too much. Connor also notes that Rowston is a heavy favorite and the odds are fine.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I gotta pick Ralston, but just a goofy fight. Yeah."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Rowston to finish Brundage, citing Brundage's history of quitting when pressured and his mental weakness. He notes that Rowston is a confident Australian prospect with dangerous elbows and ground-and-pound, and that Brundage's jet lag and lack of confidence will work against him.

"I think Cam Rousson's going to come out here and finish Cody Brundage emphatically."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

James picks Rowston to win, noting his better striking and jiu-jitsu, and that Brundage is inconsistent and gasses out. He expects Rowston to finish in later rounds, possibly by rear-naked choke. James acknowledges Brundage's wrestling but believes Rowston's cardio and skill advantage will prevail.

"I've got Kam to win this fight. I've got Kam to finish him in the later rounds, maybe a rear naked choke."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Rowston is a long striker with improving confidence and BJJ. He has shown the ability to snipe opponents from distance and finish with strikes or submissions. Brundage is a wild card with durability issues and a tendency to look for an exit when hurt. Rowston should see Brundage's shots coming and counter effectively, possibly getting a club-and-sub finish. The host expects Rowston inside the distance.

Rowston inside the distance; parlay with Rowston
"I'm going to go roasting here and roasting inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Paul echoes Cody's sentiments, detailing Brundage's history of controversial results and lack of finishing ability. He believes Rowston's size, volume, and durability will be too much for Brundage, who needs a finish or DQ to win.

"Cody Brund needs to finish to win because he's not going to outwork you. He needs to finish you or he needs to get you DQed. That's the only way this thing is going to go down."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cam Rowston

The Guru predicts a first-round TKO for Cam Rowston, citing his development at CKB, six-inch reach advantage, and real power in his hands. He dismisses Cody Brundage's grappling, noting Brundage was outgrappled by Dumas. He believes Rowston will put Brundage away early.

first round TKO
"Cam Ralston's going to destroy Cody Brundage in round one."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cam Rowston

Zane picks Cam Rowston (referred to as Ralston) because he is a huge, awkward wrestler who will make a nuisance of himself. He notes that Brundage tends to go apeshit and lose track of the fight, and Rowston's awkward striking and size advantage should allow him to drag Brundage into his world. Zane acknowledges Rowston is not a great wrestler but believes his awkwardness will be enough.

Rowston opened at -300, now -360; Brundage opened at +250, now +295.
"I'm gonna pick camera Austin to win this me too. He's big and awkward and he isn't a good enough wrestler that he could stop Torres Finney from just taking him down all the time, but he will …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jacob Malkoun

Jacob Malkoun W

10-3
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Middleweight Completed

Jacob Malkoun

No odds available.

Torrez Finney

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Jacob Malkoun

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach73.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Torrez Finney

Age27
Height5' 8"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jacob Malkoun

4.55SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
2.36SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
5.81TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
33.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Torrez Finney

1.78SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.34SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
6.86TD Avg
59.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Torrez Finney

Angelo picks Torrez Finney, stating he is the better wrestler and will take Jacob Malkoun down repeatedly. He notes Malkoun's takedown defense is not great and he hasn't fought in a long time. He bet on Finney at plus 140 and expects the line to tighten. He acknowledges Finney's boring style but thinks he will step it up.

bet on him at plus 140
"Torres Finn is the pick. I bet on him at plus 140. I have a feeling it's gonna tighten."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Big Brady picks Jacob Malkoun, citing his superior grappling skills. He notes Malkoun took down Brendan Allen seven times and controlled him for over seven minutes. He thinks Finney is physically strong but less skilled, and Malkoun will win a decision.

Fight goes to decision
"I'm taking Malcoun to win this fight. I think it's going to be a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Torrez Finney

Cody is leaning toward Finney, citing his friendship with the fighter and the fact that Malkoun is coming off a long layoff and back surgery. He notes that both are decision machines and expects a grappling-heavy fight. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet but picks Finney for the show.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I guess I will take Finny. Purpose of the show. I guess I have to make a pick. I don't want to bet one way or the other. I want to bet the over two and a half …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Malkoun. He notes that Malkoun is a good technician with a nuanced wrestling game, and Finney is a one-dimensional blanket. Connor is curious to see Malkoun's wrestling against superior physicality but believes Malkoun's skill will prevail.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I'm Malcoon he's a bit like the Iron Turtle to me. Yeah, totally where it's Jenson Park where it's just like I just want to see these guys I want to see them fight good fighters."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Daniel Vreeland picks Malkoun but is hesitant due to his long layoff and injury concerns. He believes Malkoun's cardio and pace will overwhelm Finney in the later rounds, but worries that Finney's strength and wrestling could win the first two rounds. Vreeland thinks Malkoun can take over in the second and third rounds if he is the same fighter as before.

"I'm going to go with Jacob Malcoun to hand Taurus Finny his first career defeat."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Torrez Finney

James picks Finney as an underdog, citing his physical strength, durability, and wrestling. He believes Malkoun's long layoff and back injury are concerns, and that Finney can match him in grappling and striking. James sees Finney's power and explosiveness as key, and expects a close fight or a Finney KO.

"I'm going to go ahead and pick Torres Finney, the plus 145 underdog here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Malkoun has a smothering grappling style with good cardio, but he has durability concerns and a long layoff due to a bulging disc. Finney is a strong grappler but lacks damage output, as shown in his debut where he landed only four significant strikes. Malkoun should outscramble Finney and land more effective damage over 15 minutes. However, Finney's power and the layoff make this a tough fight to predict. The host leans Malkoun by decision.

Malkoun by decision
"I will go with the Aussie here. I think Malcoun ends up getting those positions, landing more effective damage over 15 minutes, and I think that leads to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Torrez Finney

Paul also picks Finney, noting that he hits harder and has better striking. He questions Malkoun's stand-up and believes Finney's wrestling and durability will be key. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds
"Torres hits a lot harder with his hands as well. If wrestling gets completely negated here, Torres is the guy throwing the heavy artillery."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

The Guru picks Jacob Malkoun, calling him underrated and highlighting his grappling skills, nearly beating Brendan Allen. He notes Malkoun's fundamental striking and shorter stature as advantages against Finney's style. He predicts a third-round submission as Finney slows down.

submission in the third round
"I'm going to go with Jacob Malcoun. I think his grappling is pretty underrated as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jacob Malkoun

Zane picks Malkoun because he is a better technician and game planner than Finney. He notes that Finney relies on blanketing top game and has no offensive part to his game, and Malkoun's crafty wrestling and ability to outfox from the bottom should allow him to get on top. Zane is intrigued by the matchup but feels Malkoun deserves better opponents.

Malkoun opened at -250, now -145; Finney opened at +210, now +125.
"I'm gonna pick Malcolm because he is a better technician and a better game planner and Finney is somebody that can be game-planned around."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Jonathan Micallef

Jonathan Micallef W

10-1
Submission R2 3:31
Fight 9 VS Welterweight Completed

Jonathan Micallef

No odds available.

Oban Elliott

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Jonathan Micallef

Age27
Height6' 0"
Reach77.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Oban Elliott

Age28
Height6' 0"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jonathan Micallef

3.96SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.22SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
1.13TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
1.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Oban Elliott

3.62SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.24SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
1.52TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Angelo picks Jonathan Micallef, citing his wrestling and ability to land big shots and then shoot takedowns. He notes that Oban Elliott was afraid of power in his last fight and got taken down six times. He likes that Micallef is only minus 150 and says the line moved from dog to favorite, which reassures him.

"I'm going to lean Michelef here. And I and I like seeing that he's only minus 150."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Big Brady picks the underdog Oban Elliott, believing the market overreacted to his loss against Sung Ho Ko (who is legit). He thinks Elliott is the better striker and wrestler, while Micallef only has a body kick. He expects a decision win for Elliott.

"I'm going to take Elliott here. I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Cody is taking Elliott as a slight underdog, believing he is being undervalued after one loss. He notes that Micallef has a limited striking arsenal and questionable takedown defense. He expects Elliott to use his wrestling and win a decision.

"I think Oban Elliot's got a plus money. I'm gonna take a small poke here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Micallef. He notes that Elliott is a classic neutralizer who feasts on unprincipled strikers, but Micallef is a principled striker who will not get frustrated. Connor believes Micallef's comfort at range and ability to stay proactive will win him the fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I think it's very much a winnable fight for Elliott, but he is going to have to break out of his his golden cage. Yeah, and actually do something different."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Elliott as a dog, believing the market overcorrected after his loss to a legit opponent. He thinks Elliott's takedown defense is solid and that Micallef is overrated. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and likes Elliott at plus money.

"At dog odds, I'm a little tempted on Elliot."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

James picks Micallef, citing his advantage in jiu-jitsu and outside kickboxing. He believes Elliott's wrestling could lead to submissions, and that Micallef's footwork and kicks will win the striking exchanges. James questions Elliott's durability and sees Micallef as the more well-rounded fighter.

"I got Makalif in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Oban Elliott

Elliott is a well-rounded grappler with good cardio and chain wrestling. Micallef relies on mobile striking and BJJ, but Elliott should be able to shut down his striking and win the grappling exchanges. The host liked Elliott at -120 when the fight was first scheduled, so at +110 he sees value. Elliott is the better scrambler and should get more top time and damage.

Elliott by decision
"I'm going to have to lean on Elliot as I think he's a bit a little bit more well-rounded and will get the better of the grappling exchanges as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Paul disagrees and picks Micallef, citing Elliott's poor performance in his last fight and questionable wrestling. He believes Micallef's length and striking will be enough to win a decision.

"McAlliff throws like basically he's got like a long body kick. He's got some submissions off of his back. Is Oan going to just hang out in his guard? possible, but McCallip is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Oban Elliott

The Guru picks Oban Elliott despite acknowledging potential bias as a friend. He cites Elliott's experience, craftiness in scrambles, and ability to mix things up on the feet. He notes Micallef's athleticism and finishing potential but believes Elliott's experience and training camp preparation will lead to a split decision win.

split decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Orban getting this one done. Plus lighter man skill."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Micallef

Zane picks Micallef because he is a principled striker who is comfortable operating from long range, which should neutralize Elliott's passive, counter-fighting style. He notes that Elliott struggles against principled strikers and tends to give up too much momentum. Zane believes Micallef's kicking game and generalship will be key.

Micallef opened at -110, now -130; Elliott opened at -110, now +110.
"I'm gonna take Michalif on that. And I like Elliott, but that's also why I feel like this is for him, this is much more a fight for him where he has to kind of it's gonna have …"
Fight Notes

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Kaan Ofli

Kaan Ofli W

14-4-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 10 VS Featherweight Completed

Kaan Ofli

No odds available.

Yi Zha

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Kaan Ofli

Age32
Height5' 7"
Reach66.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Yi Zha

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach71"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kaan Ofli

2.33SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.34SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.38TD Avg
7.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Yi Zha

3.25SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
2.88SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
3.42TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Angelo picks Kaan Ofli as a slight lean, stating he is the better grappler and if he shoots first, he can have success because Yi Zha's takedown defense sucks. He acknowledges Yi Zha is the better striker and offensive grappler, but thinks Ofli's jiu-jitsu is better on the ground. He says betting moneyline would be dumb, but plus 3.5 might make sense.

plus 3.5 might make sense
"Slight lean Khan Offley. Betting a money line here would be dumb as hell, even though the odds are are solid. plus three and a half might make some sense."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Yi Zha

Big Brady picks Yi Zha based on activity, as Kaan Ofli does nothing in fights. He notes Zha is aggressive with wrestling and grappling, while Ofli has shown no output. He expects a decision win for Zha, though he doesn't love the -215 price.

"Give me EA to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Cody is picking Ofli as a value underdog, noting that Yi Zha has been outmuscled by stronger opponents and that Ofli has shown durability and a strong clinch game. He expects Ofli to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I don't want a two to one yet play and then have him just flop around... I'm going to go with Kane Ole. Don't love it, but that is going to be the play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Ofli. He notes that Yi Zha's competition is weak and Ofli's power and bullying style should be effective. Connor also comments that the odds are not too bothersome, as both fighters are similar in level.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, probably I agree, you know. Yep, just a just a absolute bully. Yep."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Yi Zha

Daniel Vreeland picks Yi Zha, viewing him as a tough, battle-tested journeyman who is hungrier and more durable than Ofli. He dismisses Ofli as a mid-level fighter and believes Yi Zha's experience and toughness will carry him to victory.

"Pure pick, I'm going to go Yha to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Yi Zha

James picks Yi Zha, citing his better boxing, takedown ability, and veteran savvy. He believes Yi Zha can reverse Ofli's takedowns and win scrambles, and that his experience will lead to a decision victory.

"I got Yizar as the winner."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Ofli is a BJJ black belt with good wrestling and striking, though he has had some losses. Yi Zha is a grappler but not as aggressive or dominant as Ofli's previous opponents. Ofli should be able to stuff takedowns and have success on the feet, where he has an edge in explosiveness. The host is surprised Ofli is an underdog and expects him to win by decision, possibly pulling off the upset.

Ofli by decision
"I'm going to go off. I I think he pulls off the upside here. I think he wins by decision and I think plus 165 is more than good enough to to take a shot on the Turkish …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Paul also leans toward Ofli, noting that Yi Zha was knocked out by Myron Santos and that Ofli has shown he will cheat to win. He sees value in the underdog.

"Confly kind of showed us that he will cheat to get the win, too. And at plus 170 plus 180, I mean, I think you could do worse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Yi Zha

The Guru picks Yi Zha, calling him underrated and noting his impressive debut knockout of Weston Wilson. He highlights Yi's grappling ability, chin advantage, and striking power. He predicts a first-round TKO, citing Yi's aggression and experience from Road to UFC.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with YA by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kaan Ofli

Zane picks Kaan Ofli because he is a powerful, bullying fighter who will overwhelm Yi Zha with aggression. He notes that Yi Zha's record is padded with low-level competition and he does not have applicable skills for the UFC. Ofli's power and athleticism should be too much for Yi Zha.

Ofli opened at +160, now +168; Yi Zha opened at -185, now -193. Zane says he doesn't see it but is not bothered by the odds.
"I have to pick con awfully. He's not nuanced in any way shape or form, but he is a he is like the prototypical regional power MMA fighter a strong athlete who has decided to strong man their …"
Fight Notes

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Dom Mar Fan

Dom Mar Fan W

9-3
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Lightweight Completed

Dom Mar Fan

No odds available.

Kim Sang-wook

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Dom Mar Fan

Age26
Height5' 11"
Reach75"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kim Sang-wook

Age32
Height6' 0"
Reach71"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dom Mar Fan

3.71SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
2.49SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
2.0TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kim Sang-wook

5.11SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
5.82SApM
44.0%Str. Def.
1.77TD Avg
22.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
1.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

Angelo picks Dom Mar Fan, stating he is the far better striker, faster, more athletic, and overall better fighter. He notes that Kim Sang-wook is strong and determined but not fast or clean. He warns that if Fan gets dragged to the ground, he will be uncomfortable. He calls the fight razor thin.

"I'm going to pick Fan here because again, I think he's faster. I think he's cleaner. I think he's more athletic."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

Big Brady picks the hometown fighter Dom Mar Fan, citing his wrestling and ability to reverse positions. He notes Kim is defensively irresponsible and reckless, and Mar Fan can take advantage. He expects a decision win.

"I'm going take Dom Marfan to win this fight, and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kim Sang-wook

Cody is picking Kim, believing he has more firepower and better cardio than Dom Mar Fan. He notes that Dom Mar Fan's grappling-heavy style may slow the fight but expects Kim to land a knockout in the later rounds.

"I got the Korean fighter to get the job done likely by knockout and uh yeah, hope for the best."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kim Sang-wook

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Kim. He notes that Kim is a big blanket who will pressure Mar Fan and take him down. Mar Fan's awkward style and susceptibility to pressure should play into Kim's hands.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, he seems like a big blanket. Yep, hard-nosed comes forward throws one stupid ugly punch just to have an excuse to fall into a takedown."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

James picks Fan, believing his tricky grappling will overcome Kim's wrestling. He notes Fan's only losses are to Salkilld, and that Kim will engage in Fan's wheelhouse. James expects a decision win for Fan, possibly with a submission.

"I feel like Fan is a little bit more tricky, a little bit more well-versed, and he's going to come out on top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

Mar Fan is a talented grappler with good submission defense and top control. He has dominated his Road to UFC fights as an underdog. Kim is also a grappler, but Mar Fan has a little extra in the tank and does better in bad positions. The host expects Mar Fan to grind out a decision, possibly with some success for Kim in the third round, but Mar Fan's grappling defense should hold.

Mar Fan by decision
"I like Fan. I like him at minus 170 and I think he ends up grinding this out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul does not make a clear pick on the moneyline, instead preferring the over 2.5 rounds. He notes that both are good grapplers and the fight could be close.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I'm more interested in the over two and a half, which is like minus 150."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dom Mar Fan

The Guru picks Dom Mar Fan, noting his losses are only to Quillan Salkilld, which he considers no shame. He sees Dom as a decent regional prospect with good grappling ability, while Sang-wook Kim has been taken down and held down in fights. He expects a decision win for Dom.

"I'm going to go with Dom Man over Sang Wuk Kim."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kim Sang-wook

Zane picks Kim Sang-wook because he is a bigger, hard-nosed wrestler who will put pressure on Dom Mar Fan and make him uncomfortable. He notes that Mar Fan is a kick-wrestler who is uncomfortable in the pocket and susceptible to pressure. Kim's blanketing style should allow him to control the fight.

Mar Fan opened at -205, now -150; Kim opened at +175, now +130.
"Taking song with Kim as well. He's bigger. He's more of a size bully. It's not a fun or pretty style and it won't go far in the OC, but Don Marfan seems like the kind of guy …"
Fight Notes

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Fight 12 VS Featherweight Completed

Keiichiro Nakamura

No odds available.

Sebastian Szalay

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Keiichiro Nakamura

Age27
Height5' 10"
Reach70"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Sebastian Szalay

Age32
Height5' 6"
Reach66"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Keiichiro Nakamura

4.48SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
4.28SApM
63.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
78.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sebastian Szalay

4.94SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
2.2SApM
65.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
84.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Angelo picks Sebastian Szalay, citing his power, solid defense, and composure. He notes that Nakamura is fast but not powerful, and charges forward wildly. He trusts Szalay's defense and thinks he can counter effectively. He warns not to bet on this regional fight.

do not bet on regional MMA
"Sebastian's going to be the pick. I trust the composure. I trust the defense. Nakamura is not I I at least for now as powerful as his record will indicate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Big Brady picks Sebastian Szalay, impressed by his striking (fast hands, heavy leg kicks). He thinks Nakamura is okay but Szalay is another level on the feet. He expects a decision win, as Szalay is not a big knockout artist.

"I'm going to take Clay to win this fight. I'll say decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kazuhiro Nakamura

Cody is leaning toward Nakamura as a slight underdog, citing his youth, power, and improvement. He questions Szalay's durability and cardio, and believes Nakamura has a higher ceiling. He expects a competitive fight but picks Nakamura.

"I think I'm going to lean Nakamura ever so slightly. But again, this stuff's all at the bottom."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nakamura. He notes that Szalay is like a worse version of Tim Elliott without wrestling, and Nakamura's range and power should be too much.

Same odds commentary.
"Yeah, I'll take Nakamura. Same."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
No clear pick

James admits he hasn't done tape study on this fight and cannot provide a pick. He directs viewers to his paid service for his official prediction after further analysis.

"I haven't done tape study. Obviously, I'm in the Maldives."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Nakamura is a slick power striker with good range management and defensive grappling. Szalay is well-rounded but Nakamura's striking could cause problems. If Nakamura's defensive grappling holds up, he can counter Szalay's forward pressure and land a knockout. The host likes Nakamura at plus money and expects a knockout, possibly waiting for a better underdog price.

Nakamura by knockout
"I'm going to go with Kichi Kaichiro Nakamura to win this fight by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

Paul is surprised by the near pick'em line and favors Szalay, who has been a favorite throughout the tournament. He believes Szalay's karate style and counter-striking will be effective.

"Salai seems like a pretty easy moneyline selection to me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sebastian Szalay

The Guru picks Sebastian Szalay based on his experience and good grappling. He admits he doesn't remember much about Szalay but trusts his earlier research. He is skeptical of Asian prospects from Road to UFC, noting they often lose in the UFC.

"I'm going to go with Sebastian Sazlay. He's got a lot more experience."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Keiichiro Nakamura

Zane picks Nakamura because he is rangy, bigger, and more composed than Szalay. He notes that Szalay is a funky fighter with poor striking defense who relies on opponents getting tired, while Nakamura moves well off the back foot and throws powerful strikes. Nakamura's size and composure should be decisive.

Nakamura opened at +170, now +110; Szalay opened at -200, now -130. Zane says you have a problem if you're gambling on this.
"I'll take Nakamura. Same. Nakamura is once again the underdog open it plus 170 currently plus 110. Saleh opened at minus 200 currently minus 130 a you've got a problem if you're gambling on this be I have …"
Fight Notes

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Lawrence Lui

Lawrence Lui W

8-1
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 13 VS Bantamweight Completed

Lawrence Lui

No odds available.

Sulangrangbo

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Lawrence Lui

Age29
Height5' 7"
Reach72"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Sulangrangbo

Age20
Height5' 9"
Reach66"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Lawrence Lui

3.72SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
5.3TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Sulangrangbo

3.96SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.2SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Angelo picks Sulangrangbo, citing his fluid striking, movement, and kicking range. He notes that Lawrence Lui is hittable and stiff, but durable. He thinks Sulangrangbo can win a decision if he doesn't get frustrated by Lui's toughness. He calls it a close fight.

"I think he's going to win a close one. I'm picking Solen Grung Mango."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Lawrence Lui

Big Brady picks Lawrence Lui, citing his well-rounded game and fight IQ. He notes Lui can mix in takedowns and has nasty elbows. The concern is his chin, but he expects Lui to win a decision at home.

"I'm going to take Lee to win this fight and Lee to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Cody is confident in Sulangrangbo, citing his power, speed, and youth. He notes that Lawrence Lui has been knocked down multiple times and has questionable durability. He expects Sulangrangbo to win by knockout.

Sulangrangbo by KO
"I think Sulang Rangbo gets a knockout win here against Lawrence Louie."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Sulangrangbo. He notes that Lui has a very uncomfortable striking guard and is likely to get knocked out. Sulangrangbo's power and wrestling should be too much.

Same odds commentary.
"He is very likely gonna get knocked out by so long rung bow seems very likely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

James picks Sulangrangbo, citing his striking advantage and training with Mark Tims who knows Lui. He acknowledges Lui's physicality and grappling but believes Sulangrangbo's youth and potential will prevail, likely by decision or KO. James admits bias as a fan of Sulangrangbo.

"I got Suleng Rangbo. I can't pick against him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Sulangrangbo (Sue) is a talented striker with good footwork and range management, reminiscent of his cousin Sumudaarji. He should be able to keep the fight standing and piece up Lui, who struggles with better strikers. Lui may try to grapple but will struggle to get takedowns. The host expects Sue to win by decision, possibly with a finish, and likes the line.

"I think we see Sue touch him up, get the decision win. Uh and I don't mind him at this minus 245 line either."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Paul agrees, highlighting Sulangrangbo's impressive performances in the tournament and Lui's tendency to get hurt. He expects a knockout win for the Chinese fighter.

"I really do think Sulen Gangro is going to knock his head off."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Lawrence Lui

The Guru picks Lawrence Lui as an underdog, citing his experience as a CKB fighter and his defensive responsibility. He notes that Lui is a slow starter but builds as the fight goes on, and he expects a decision win based on the last two rounds. He disagrees with the odds, believing Lui is more crafty than his opponent.

disagrees with the odds, thinks Lui is underdog but should win
"Lawrence Louie is going to win. I'm not [__] restarting this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Sulangrangbo

Zane picks Sulangrangbo (referred to as So Long Rung Bow) because he is powerful, composed, and has a few technical tricks. He notes that Lawrence Lui has terrible striking defense and looks uncomfortable dealing with offense. Sulangrangbo's power and ability to take him down should lead to a knockout or dominant win.

Sulangrangbo opened at +165, now -260; Lui opened at -190, now +220. Zane says the odds make sense.
"So picks a long long bow. Yep. He's also a blanket. So if he just can take him down then Yep, if he wins it will look bad."
Fight Notes

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