UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
8.09 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
6.3 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
6.53 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.45 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
3.31 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
2.1 Sub. Avg
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
LOSS vs Mateusz Gamrot
Submission R2 4:19 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Gamrot 0 18 of 34 52% 38 of 56 4 of 6 66% 1 0 6:50
Esteban Ribovics 0 4 of 21 19% 16 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Gamrot 0 14 of 21 66% 24 of 33 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 1 of 12 8% 3 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Gamrot 0 4 of 13 30% 14 of 23 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:55
Esteban Ribovics 0 3 of 9 33% 13 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Gamrot 18 of 34 52% 15 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 14 of 16
Esteban Ribovics 4 of 21 19% 2 of 15 0 of 2 2 of 4 4 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Gamrot 14 of 21 66% 11 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Esteban Ribovics 1 of 12 8% 0 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Gamrot 4 of 13 30% 4 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 5
Esteban Ribovics 3 of 9 33% 2 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
WIN vs Elves Brener
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 118 of 250 47% 123 of 256 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 122 of 281 43% 123 of 284 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 68 52% 37 of 69 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 48 of 88 54% 51 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 34 of 94 36% 35 of 95 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Elves Brener 0 49 of 102 48% 49 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 118 of 250 47% 88 of 211 15 of 23 15 of 16 118 of 248 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 122 of 281 43% 86 of 233 23 of 29 13 of 19 114 of 268 0 of 0 8 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 36 of 68 52% 21 of 51 6 of 8 9 of 9 36 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 39 of 95 41% 29 of 83 6 of 6 4 of 6 31 of 82 0 of 0 8 of 13
2 Esteban Ribovics 48 of 88 54% 39 of 76 5 of 8 4 of 4 48 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elves Brener 34 of 84 40% 21 of 65 7 of 10 6 of 9 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 34 of 94 36% 28 of 84 4 of 7 2 of 3 34 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Elves Brener 49 of 102 48% 36 of 85 10 of 13 3 of 4 49 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.

"Ribovitch, I have a lot more faith that his durability, his game is built to take advantage of his durability in ways that are much more sustainable."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.

Inside the distance; Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I think Rivix is going to win the fight... inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.

"I think that Rubavich is somebody who likes fighting every bit as much as Brenner. Oh, no denying. There's no doubt of that."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nasrat Haqparast 0 135 of 273 49% 135 of 273 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 147 of 433 33% 149 of 436 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nasrat Haqparast 0 33 of 64 51% 33 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 36 of 107 33% 36 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nasrat Haqparast 0 49 of 104 47% 49 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 62 of 183 33% 62 of 183 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Nasrat Haqparast 0 53 of 105 50% 53 of 105 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:49
Esteban Ribovics 0 49 of 143 34% 51 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nasrat Haqparast 135 of 273 49% 103 of 233 26 of 34 6 of 6 134 of 272 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 147 of 433 33% 120 of 395 17 of 27 10 of 11 147 of 433 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nasrat Haqparast 33 of 64 51% 21 of 50 11 of 13 1 of 1 33 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 36 of 107 33% 28 of 94 3 of 7 5 of 6 36 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nasrat Haqparast 49 of 104 47% 39 of 91 8 of 11 2 of 2 49 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 62 of 183 33% 53 of 170 6 of 10 3 of 3 62 of 183 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Nasrat Haqparast 53 of 105 50% 43 of 92 7 of 10 3 of 3 52 of 104 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 49 of 143 34% 39 of 131 8 of 10 2 of 2 49 of 143 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.

"I'm pretty high on re he's got dog in him we saw that in the L fight he has some wrestling he's got striking nazat is not very dangerous so I think reix can win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.

Ribovics by KO round 2
"I'm going to take Esteban Rivix to win this fight and I think he knocks out hack brast... give me rivix to win by second round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'll just pick ribovich because uh, I would normally pick hock peros and I don't feel like it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.

decision
"I believe the public is very high on reix after that fight of the year he had against Daniel zel Huber back in September but they are overlooking the experience and strength of schedule from hack prast and I believe …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going with es bam ribovich... he mixes it up way better he's the one Landing body kicks and a head kick here and there... I'm going to go vean decision 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nasrat Haqparast

Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.

Haqparast opened +197, now +248; Ribovics opened -264, now -284. Zane notes the odds are moving away from Haqparast.
"I'm banking on hock per husk just being faster honestly."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 1 121 of 308 39% 121 of 308 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 156 of 345 45% 156 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 27 of 76 35% 27 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 24 of 65 36% 24 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 51 of 116 43% 51 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Zellhuber 0 40 of 89 44% 40 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Esteban Ribovics 1 43 of 116 37% 43 of 116 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Daniel Zellhuber 0 92 of 191 48% 92 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 121 of 308 39% 83 of 255 33 of 48 5 of 5 117 of 304 4 of 4 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 156 of 345 45% 103 of 276 32 of 48 21 of 21 154 of 342 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 27 of 76 35% 13 of 59 11 of 14 3 of 3 26 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 24 of 65 36% 7 of 41 9 of 16 8 of 8 24 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 51 of 116 43% 33 of 93 16 of 21 2 of 2 50 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 40 of 89 44% 23 of 68 9 of 13 8 of 8 40 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Esteban Ribovics 43 of 116 37% 37 of 103 6 of 13 0 of 0 41 of 114 2 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Zellhuber 92 of 191 48% 73 of 167 14 of 19 5 of 5 90 of 188 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.

Placed 0.25 units on moneyline at +180; plans to also bet plus 3.5 spread.
"I am picking him to win here he's the dog and I'm picking him to win here... I placed a bet on eston Rix at plus 180"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.

"I like zel Huber here... I think it's going to be a war I think it's going to be fun I think it goes to decision give me zel H to get the decision win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.

"I'm a lean with Danielle Z Huber I'm not convinced the line is right uh I'm not convinced but I don't say that uh with confidence"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.

Zellhuber by decision +135
"I don't really love the value on this one with zel Huber but I am gonna pick zel Huer mostly just because I like his volume and his ability to put it on somebody"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.

"I'm taking zel Huber as well I just I think he's slightly better um everywhere but yeah the odds really aren't in our favor low for for that"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.

"zel Huber is very calm Technical and disciplined with the Striking approach I expect him to utilize his footwork and touch up rabix from distance and win this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Zellhuber

The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.

"I'm going to go with Daniel el Huber and uh he's had two good performances back to back so I'm going to trust him to get this one done"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
WIN vs Kamuela Kirk
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 56 of 107 52% 86 of 147 3 of 14 21% 1 0 6:20
Kamuela Kirk 0 115 of 202 56% 135 of 224 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 2 of 2 100% 29 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:37
Kamuela Kirk 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Esteban Ribovics 0 35 of 67 52% 36 of 68 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamuela Kirk 0 65 of 118 55% 71 of 126 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
3 Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 38 50% 21 of 40 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:43
Kamuela Kirk 0 49 of 82 59% 61 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 56 of 107 52% 36 of 84 12 of 15 8 of 8 51 of 101 5 of 6 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 115 of 202 56% 94 of 177 17 of 20 4 of 5 92 of 172 10 of 13 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Esteban Ribovics 35 of 67 52% 20 of 50 9 of 11 6 of 6 31 of 62 4 of 5 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 65 of 118 55% 58 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 55 of 102 4 of 6 6 of 10
3 Esteban Ribovics 19 of 38 50% 14 of 32 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamuela Kirk 49 of 82 59% 36 of 68 11 of 12 2 of 2 36 of 68 6 of 7 7 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.

Bet 1 unit at -200
"Reba fix is the pick and I threw a full unit on him at minus 200"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.

third round knockout
"give me removics to win this fight I'll say ribofix wins this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I grabbed the minus 139 while you were talking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.

"Ribovich looks just overall more solid everywhere, basically."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.

"I'm still going Esteban man I think he's got more dog and he's got more power."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Esteban Ribovics

James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.

"I think ribavix is the fighter and I don't think Kirk is I think when the going gets tough for Kirk he's going to look for a way out more than Esteban rivervix is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.

under 2.5 rounds
"I'm gonna go with rebovix here I think even the under two and a half is not a bad way of looking at this fight but I think that rebovix eventually finds that chin of Kirk overwhelms him with strikes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.

Ribovics by KO/TKO
"I got to go with Esteban to get the win"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.

wins by KO in the first round
"I think rybovich is going to catch him clean counter hook on the chin end of the first round put away cam Willa Kirk by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.

"I just don't trust Kamuela Kirk."
LOSS vs Loik Radzhabov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Loik Radzhabov 1 66 of 129 51% 98 of 162 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:31
Esteban Ribovics 0 40 of 85 47% 67 of 117 11 of 21 52% 0 0 7:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Loik Radzhabov 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Esteban Ribovics 0 8 of 23 34% 20 of 37 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:00
2 Loik Radzhabov 1 25 of 47 53% 38 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Esteban Ribovics 0 13 of 28 46% 18 of 33 4 of 9 44% 0 0 2:24
3 Loik Radzhabov 0 27 of 50 54% 41 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:27
Esteban Ribovics 0 19 of 34 55% 29 of 47 3 of 7 42% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Loik Radzhabov 66 of 129 51% 52 of 114 11 of 12 3 of 3 61 of 124 1 of 1 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 40 of 85 47% 33 of 78 6 of 6 1 of 1 37 of 81 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Loik Radzhabov 14 of 32 43% 10 of 28 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 8 of 23 34% 7 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Loik Radzhabov 25 of 47 53% 18 of 40 6 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 43 0 of 0 4 of 4
Esteban Ribovics 13 of 28 46% 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Loik Radzhabov 27 of 50 54% 24 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1 26 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0
Esteban Ribovics 19 of 34 55% 15 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 30 1 of 2 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.

fight does not go to distance (minus 160)
"I think Lloyd's pressure cardio and non-stop wrestling are gonna be the difference here but I wouldn't lay money on two UFC debuts like this that are just who the hell knows what's gonna happen here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.

second round knockout
"I think I'm gonna kick off the card with a dog... I'll take ribavix to win this fight though and I'm going to take him to win this fight I'm gonna say second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.

Under 2.5 rounds (-135) but hesitant due to short notice
"I'll pick loick because I'll pick them but yeah minus 275 kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.

"I'm just gonna look at the way he's putting his sleep and say it's true. This dude hits like a truck but yeah, you know just hitting hard alone. It's not enough to beat a good fighter who has options."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.

Esteban Ribovics second/third round finish
"I think Esteban can survive and if he does survive the first round I think that this fight is going to turn very very quickly"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.

"I think eventually he'll be able to get a hold of him drag him to the ground and then from there I don't think that Kimura sweep path to his feet is going to work for rebovix at this level"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.

"I just don't see that happening he not known for his cardio him being on short notice isn't great"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.

"I'm still going to pick Raja buff to win... I think he will win this fight by decision plus."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.

"I'm going to just because he's never been knocked out before. That's probably enough for me to go."
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
KO R1 0:24 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 13 of 27 48% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 22
Kyle Nelson 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.

Half a unit at -141
"Half a unit minus 141, Terrance McKinney's the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.

McKinney by KO round 1
"I think McKinney's going to knock him out in the very first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.

"Kyle Nelson for me, brother."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170. Connor says he can't imagine betting on McKinney.
"You got to pick Kyle Nelson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.

"A pure pick, I'm going with McKinney, man. I'd like to see McKinney get back on track and just get Nelson out of there with a serious onslaught in round one."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.

"You'd be crazy to back McKinney with how reckless he is and how bad his cardio is. But, with how dangerous McKinney is early and how stiff and slow Nelson is, I think you'd be crazy to back Nelson as …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to go McKenna. I'm not I don't want to bet him at shock just because I know what kind of style he has... but the under one and a half is definitely the spot even at shock to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.

"Kyle Nelson is the side for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Nelson

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.

"Reverse psychology. I'm going with Kyle Nelson, dude."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.

Odds: Nelson opened +150, now +145; McKinney opened -175, now -170.
"Can't pick a single competent fighter to lose to McKinney."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
Submission R1 2:30 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 31 of 57 54% 31 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Duncan 1 38 of 55 69% 53 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 31 of 57 54% 26 of 50 5 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 45 6 of 11 1 of 1
Chris Duncan 38 of 55 69% 36 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1 10 of 20 6 of 8 22 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.

"I'm going to pick Terence McKini. Don't do anything with that information. These odds aren't good enough to bet on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.

Duncan by first round knockout
"I'm going to say Duncan weathers the early storm and knocks out Terrence McKenna in very brutal fashion late in the first round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.

"I'm gonna go with the Terrence McKenna side. Uh, but I will say with the caveat of um I feel like a Duncan round two prop at like plus 450 plus plus 600's out there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.

"I have to prick Chris Duncan the way, especially the way Chris Duncan is now. Like that's what I was going to say. Chris Duncan, I think has really gotten a lot better in a pretty short period of time."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.

"I am going to pick Chris Duncan. There's obviously a chance he gets finished in the first, but if he doesn't, he's got multiple avenues to victory."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.

Chris Duncan inside the distance
"I got Chris all day here, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think that we'll see Duncan eventually take advantage of McKenny's overaggressive style and find that finish under one and a half rounds."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.

"I'm going to actually go with Chris Duncan in this spot. Just he's got more ways to win."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Terrence McKini getting this one done by TKO in the first round over Chris Duncan."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Duncan

Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.

Duncan should be a bigger favorite
"I think Duncan could, that should actually be a bunch bigger favorite. Frankly."
Submission R1 0:55 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:47
Viacheslav Borshchev 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2
Viacheslav Borshchev 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.

Angelo says he will keep an eye on the odds and use his line movement tracker to find a good entry point.
"I am going to go Terrance McKinney. Viacheslav is 33 years old. He is 55 years old in fight years."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.

McKinney wins by first round knockout
"Give me Terence McKenna to win by first round knockout. But he's so untrustworthy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Viacheslav Borshchev

The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.

under 1.5 rounds, TKO finish
"I think it's going to be Borchev who ends up fending off the early grappling threat of McKenna and then eventually pulverizes him by the ending of the first round or early second round to get that TKO finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.

"I'm going with Terrence McKini here. Um I I think Terrence McKini is uh is good enough to beat Vishlav Borchev."
KO R1 2:01 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 54 of 69 78% 69 of 90 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:00
Damir Hadžović 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 54 of 69 78% 53 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 18 0 of 0 46 of 51
Damir Hadžović 4 of 13 30% 3 of 9 0 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.

Suggests looking at round line (under 1.5) and prop bets.
"Terence mckin should win I'm picking Terence mckin to win I'm hoping these odds Titan though betting on Terence mckin at minus 335 is the the plot of a nightmare"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I'm going Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round sub if he gets out of the first round um it could very well be bad but I just don't see hadzovic lasting five minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds
"McKenna should have a tremendous his grappling Advantage here and I'd be surprised if he does not look to get this fight to the ground almost immediately from there I expect him to go to the back get that first …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.

first round finish
"I'm going to go with Terrence mckin getting it done TKO first round I say first round finish for Terrence mckin"
KO (head kick) R1 0:37 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Esteban Ribovics 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Terrance McKinney 1 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Esteban Ribovics 5 of 18 27% 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."
TKO (knee and punches) R1 0:20 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 1 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Brendon Marotte 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 14 of 21 66% 14 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 19
Brendon Marotte 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.

McKinney by submission in round 1
"going be Terence mckenny to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.

"McKinney is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.

McKinney round one; under 1.5 rounds
"I'll take mckenny mckenny round one but nothing to do with that minus 600 money line cardio way too question able"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.

McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2
"McKinney all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.

TKO
"I'm going to have to go with teren mckin getting this one done by TKO another can for mckin"
WIN vs Mike Breeden
TKO (punches) R1 1:25 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Terrance McKinney 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Mike Breeden 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Terrance McKinney 30 of 47 63% 23 of 36 7 of 11 0 of 0 16 of 30 11 of 14 3 of 3
Mike Breeden 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.

McKinney to get more takedowns (if under -300), McKinney to win first round
"Terrence McKinney's still going to be the pick but low confidence and I'm staying far far away from these four to one odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.

knockout early in the first round, within 60 seconds
"I will take Terence McKinney to knock out Mike Breeden um within 60 seconds like I think 60 seconds is is very much in play here for Terence McKinney"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; also mentions Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting Breeden after round 1
"breed in round two is a you know throw a little sprinkle and uh and hope for the best type of play of the week"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.

James suggests if betting McKinney, play his KO or submission prop instead of moneyline.
"I'll always fade Terence at minus 300 for the most part against anybody with a pulse."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.

under 1.5 rounds (-290), McKinney by TKO in round 1
"I'm gonna go with McKinney here as I think he's too athletic and too powerful for Breeden to deal with early and I think that will allow him to get the TKO victory in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mike Breeden

Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.

Breeden round 2 at +1200; Breeden round 3 at +2100; suggests live betting
"I will be playing the breeding round two pro because five minute fighter bro"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.

Live bet on Mike Breeden if McKinney gasses after round one
"I'm gonna go Terence McKinney yeah uh but he could lose again because Mike breeden's not some joke"
LOSS vs Nazim Sadykhov
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:07 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nazim Sadykhov 0 8 of 15 53% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:55
Terrance McKinney 0 6 of 14 42% 21 of 34 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nazim Sadykhov 0 5 of 8 62% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:20
Terrance McKinney 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:12
2 Nazim Sadykhov 0 3 of 7 42% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:35
Terrance McKinney 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nazim Sadykhov 8 of 15 53% 6 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2
Terrance McKinney 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nazim Sadykhov 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2
Terrance McKinney 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nazim Sadykhov 3 of 7 42% 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Terrance McKinney 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.

"I'm gonna give the slightest lean towards Terence McKinney because I do think he's the better fighter all in all but when I say slightest lean like 50 50 means there's no pick I'm going 49 and a half to …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.

First round knockout; great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives first half of round
"I'm gonna say McKenney knocks out satikov in the first round great live betting spot if Santa Claus survives the first half of a round probably live at him here because I just don't think McKinney has more than a …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.

under 1.5 rounds
"I gotta go with Terence McKinney... he's likely gonna go for it and he's got an ability to potentially knock out or submit most guys in this division very early"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.

McKinney wins in round 1; under 1.5 rounds
"give me round one McKinney I'm gonna just go round one McKinney you know I mean he can pull off the sub where he can pull off The Knockout I think he's capable of both but I'm gonna go round …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nazim Sadykhov

Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.

live bet on Sadykhov after first round
"I got a side with them at minus 135... buyer beware he was down two rounds on all all judges scorecards against Evan Elder and then the you know Landing Landing a perfect what elbow to to cut open Elder"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.

"I'm gonna go with Terence McKinney here I I do worry that maybe he'll be exposed again but I'm gonna have to go with him to win this one"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.

"I got to go with the more durable guy here I have to go with the more dependable guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.

"I'm going to take riix to uh survive an early storm here get taken down get back up make McKenna work and I think he's going to push a pace here and finish M McKenna in the the late first or second round here so give me Ricks to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.

Under 1.5 rounds (-220) parlayed with other unders; live betting Ribovics
"I think ribovich is a better live bet and I suppose yeah the the under one and a half is decent uh decent parlay fodder"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.

late finish
"I think estaban takes over late and gets a late finish."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.

Under 1.5 rounds is a must play; McKinney round 1 prop
"give me uh mckenny round one but the under one and a half is a must play especially in Terence McKenna fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.

Under 1.5 rounds
"I expect ribovich eventually to Prevail and mckin to gas out and then probably get finished either late in the first round or early in the second round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Terrance McKinney

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.

"I'm gonna go with Terren mckin who is an underdog here... I think he has the advantage in the grappling over esam ribovich."