Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics
Career Averages - Terrance McKinney
Esteban Ribovics - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 38 of 56 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 4 of 21 | 19% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 24 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 1 of 12 | 8% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateusz Gamrot | 18 of 34 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 4 of 21 | 19% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mateusz Gamrot | 14 of 21 | 66% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 of 12 | 8% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mateusz Gamrot | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.
Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.
Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.
Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.
Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.
The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.
James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.
Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.
Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.
Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 118 of 250 | 47% | 123 of 256 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 122 of 281 | 43% | 123 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 39 of 95 | 41% | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 48 of 88 | 54% | 51 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 34 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 34 of 94 | 36% | 35 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elves Brener | 0 | 49 of 102 | 48% | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 118 of 250 | 47% | 88 of 211 | 15 of 23 | 15 of 16 | 118 of 248 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 122 of 281 | 43% | 86 of 233 | 23 of 29 | 13 of 19 | 114 of 268 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 68 | 52% | 21 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 36 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 39 of 95 | 41% | 29 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 31 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 48 of 88 | 54% | 39 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 48 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 34 of 84 | 40% | 21 of 65 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 34 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 34 of 94 | 36% | 28 of 84 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Elves Brener | 49 of 102 | 48% | 36 of 85 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 49 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor sees Ribovics as a durable, violent striker who enjoys pocket exchanges, which neutralizes Brener's main weapon. He notes Ribovics has technical skills and a camp that can improve him, while Brener's reckless style leaves him open to counters. Connor believes Brener's game is unsustainable and that Ribovics will land more significant shots.
Lucrative James views Ribovics as the more educated striker with a diverse arsenal, including body shots. He notes Brener's durability may be declining, as he was hurt in recent fights by Joel Alvarez and Oro. He acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense is a weakness but doubts Brener has the grappling skill to exploit it for three rounds. He predicts Ribovics will land heavy shots and finish inside the distance, possibly by knockout or TKO.
Zane agrees Ribovics is the pick, highlighting that Brenner's game relies on opponents not enjoying the fight as much as he does. Ribovics clearly enjoys brawling, which takes away Brenner's advantage. Zane notes Brenner's poor distance control and tendency to get hit, while Ribovics is a more technical and durable striker.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 135 of 273 | 49% | 135 of 273 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 147 of 433 | 33% | 149 of 436 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 36 of 107 | 33% | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 49 of 104 | 47% | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 62 of 183 | 33% | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 0 | 53 of 105 | 50% | 53 of 105 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 49 of 143 | 34% | 51 of 146 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasrat Haqparast | 135 of 273 | 49% | 103 of 233 | 26 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 134 of 272 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 147 of 433 | 33% | 120 of 395 | 17 of 27 | 10 of 11 | 147 of 433 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasrat Haqparast | 33 of 64 | 51% | 21 of 50 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 36 of 107 | 33% | 28 of 94 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 36 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nasrat Haqparast | 49 of 104 | 47% | 39 of 91 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 62 of 183 | 33% | 53 of 170 | 6 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 62 of 183 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nasrat Haqparast | 53 of 105 | 50% | 43 of 92 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 52 of 104 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 49 of 143 | 34% | 39 of 131 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 143 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics, highlighting his sneaky power, tight striking, and ability to mix in takedowns and BJJ. He notes that Nasrat Haqparast is not very dangerous and tends to win close decisions, but believes Ribovics can win more decisively. He also mentions that Vegas judges don't favor Nasrat, which could help Ribovics.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics, citing his volume, durability, and power. He notes Nasrat Haqparast is not a wrestler and will stand and trade, which favors Ribovics. He predicts Ribovics will break Haqparast and knock him out in the second round.
Connor picks Ribovics as a fun flyer, noting that Ribovics is a pocket combination puncher who will force exchanges and get hit but also land. He mentions that Haqparast has lost to similar pressure fighters like Dober and that Ribovics has the power to hurt him. Connor admits it's a competitive fight but goes with Ribovics for the upset.
The host acknowledges the public is high on Ribovics after his Fight of the Year candidate, but believes they are overlooking Haqparast's experience and strength of schedule. He expects Haqparast's combination striking to overcome the favorite and win a decision.
The Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Nasrat Haqparast. He views Haqparast as a simple straight-punch fighter without enough power, while Ribovics is more dynamic with better footwork, kicks, and versatility. He notes Ribovics' fight of the year contender and predicts a close 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Haqparast, banking on his speed and experience in close fights. He notes that Haqparast rarely loses to opponents he is faster than, and Ribovics is hittable and will force exchanges. Zane acknowledges that Haqparast can be out-thought but believes his athleticism will carry him in a brawl.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 121 of 308 | 39% | 121 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 156 of 345 | 45% | 156 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 51 of 116 | 43% | 51 of 116 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 40 of 89 | 44% | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 1 | 43 of 116 | 37% | 43 of 116 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 92 of 191 | 48% | 92 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 121 of 308 | 39% | 83 of 255 | 33 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 117 of 304 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 156 of 345 | 45% | 103 of 276 | 32 of 48 | 21 of 21 | 154 of 342 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 27 of 76 | 35% | 13 of 59 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 24 of 65 | 36% | 7 of 41 | 9 of 16 | 8 of 8 | 24 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 51 of 116 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 50 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 40 of 89 | 44% | 23 of 68 | 9 of 13 | 8 of 8 | 40 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 43 of 116 | 37% | 37 of 103 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 114 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Zellhuber | 92 of 191 | 48% | 73 of 167 | 14 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 90 of 188 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, surprised he is not the favorite. He notes Ribovics is well-rounded with sneaky power, tight strikes, good takedowns, and solid BJJ. He sees this as a close fight possibly going to split decision, so he placed a quarter unit on Ribovics moneyline at +180 and plans to put another quarter on the plus 3.5 spread to cover a close decision loss. He is confident in the dog pick.
Big Brady likes Zellhuber due to an 8-inch reach advantage and superior striking technique. He notes Ribovics has no takedown defense, so Zellhuber can mix in takedowns if needed. He expects a competitive fight but Zellhuber to win a decision.
Daniel leans with Daniel Zellhuber, praising his 8-inch reach advantage, kickboxing, and 94% takedown defense. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter but respects Ribovics' dangerous hands and get-up game. He is not fully convinced the line is right but goes with Zellhuber.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Zellhuber because he likes his volume and ability to put pressure on opponents. He notes Zellhuber's only loss was to Trey Ogden, who grinded him out, but Ribovics is a power puncher who will let his hands fly, which plays into Zellhuber's strengths. He compares it to the Bahamondes vs Torres fight, favoring the taller, sharper striker.
Jeff Fox picks Daniel Zellhuber as well, stating he is slightly better everywhere. He acknowledges the odds aren't favorable but notes he is ignoring size and youth this time, having turned over a new leaf.
The transcript does not discuss this fight.
Ribovics packs power but Zellhuber is very calm, technical, and disciplined with his striking approach. Expects Zellhuber to utilize his footwork and touch up Ribovics from distance, winning on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber. He highlights Zellhuber's 8-inch reach advantage and his ability to keep distance and pick shots. He notes Ribovics has a 69-inch reach which is flyweight-level, and at 5'10" that's a disadvantage. He trusts Zellhuber's game plan under coach Eric Nicksick and his recent back-to-back good performances.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 56 of 107 | 52% | 86 of 147 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 6:20 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 115 of 202 | 56% | 135 of 224 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 29 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 36 of 68 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 65 of 118 | 55% | 71 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 21 of 40 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 49 of 82 | 59% | 61 of 94 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 56 of 107 | 52% | 36 of 84 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 51 of 101 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 115 of 202 | 56% | 94 of 177 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 92 of 172 | 10 of 13 | 13 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Esteban Ribovics | 35 of 67 | 52% | 20 of 50 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 65 of 118 | 55% | 58 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 55 of 102 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 10 | |
| 3 | Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 38 | 50% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kamuela Kirk | 49 of 82 | 59% | 36 of 68 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 68 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 |
Angelo is confident in Ribovics, calling him the better striker with sneaky power and solid takedowns. He notes Kirk's tendency to fade, keep his hands low, and be hittable. He thinks Kirk's patience and year-long layoff will work against him. He placed a full unit bet at -200 and sees value even at that price.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Ribovics has heavy power and has knocked out opponents brutally, but his takedown defense is terrible. He believes Kirk is a good grappler who doesn't use his grappling enough, and if Kirk tries to strike, he will get knocked out. He expects Kirk to get tired if he wrestles, and Ribovics will take over and finish him in the second or third round.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting his power and improved wrestling. He thinks Kirk's wrestling is overrated and he has not improved. He mentions Ribovics showed good cardio and get-up ability against a strong wrestler. He grabbed Ribovics at -139.
Connor picks Ribovics because Kirk is a fighter who can be dominated in any area where his opponent is better. Ribovics is a better striker and more deliberate, and he showed credible resistance against pressure in his fight with Rongzhu. Kirk's flashy style doesn't hold up against solid fundamentals.
Daniel Levi picks Ribovics, citing his dog mentality, knockout power, and ability to take over as the fight progresses. He notes that Kirk has cardio issues and has been broken in past fights, and that Ribovics showed resilience in his UFC debut by coming back after being rocked and taken down. Levi acknowledges that Kirk may have success early but believes Ribovics's volume and power will be decisive. He also mentions that Kirk moving up to lightweight may help his cardio, but still favors Ribovics.
James believes Ribovics is the better fighter overall, citing intangibles like cardio, durability, power, physicality, heart, and will. He thinks Kirk may have better technical MMA skills but lacks the intangibles and will look for a way out when the going gets tough. James would make Ribovics at least a -170 favorite, seeing value at the current -140 to -150 range.
Ribovics has shown he can deal with grapple-heavy approaches and work back to his feet to land his striking. Kirk struggles with pressure, and Ribovics will overwhelm him with aggressive striking, eventually finding the chin and finishing with ground and pound. The under 2.5 rounds is also a viable play.
Paul picks Ribovics, citing his physicality and power. He thinks Kirk has stagnated and lost to better competition. He notes Ribovics' performance against a tough wrestler showed his potential. He expects Ribovics to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics to win by KO in the first round. He describes Kirk as a worse version of Shane Burgos who overthrows his shots and leaves himself open to counters. He believes Ribovics' nasty counter hooks will catch Kirk coming in, leading to a finish.
Zane picks Ribovics because Kirk is all flash and swagger with little substance, and he crumbles under pressure as seen against Damon Jackson. Ribovics is a more solid, deliberate striker who can pressure Kirk and dominate him in any area. Kirk has no answer for naked pressure, and Ribovics looks better everywhere.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 66 of 129 | 51% | 98 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:31 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 67 of 117 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 1 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 18 of 33 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 41 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:27 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 29 of 47 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loik Radzhabov | 66 of 129 | 51% | 52 of 114 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 61 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 40 of 85 | 47% | 33 of 78 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loik Radzhabov | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 8 of 23 | 34% | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Loik Radzhabov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 18 of 40 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 13 of 28 | 46% | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Loik Radzhabov | 27 of 50 | 54% | 24 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Esteban Ribovics | 19 of 34 | 55% | 15 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Loik Radzhabov based on his pressure, cardio, and non-stop wrestling, which he believes will be the difference. He notes that Radzhabov can push a pace for 15 minutes and has solid takedowns, but his striking can be sloppy and he gets tired. Angelo is hesitant because both fighters are making their UFC debut, making the outcome unpredictable, and he advises against betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics as a dog despite Radzhabov being the favorite. He notes Radzhabov is on short notice and has questionable cardio, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere with submissions and power. However, he acknowledges Ribovics is untested against good competition. He predicts a second-round KO for Ribovics.
Cody picks Radzhabov, citing his experience against higher-level competition in PFL. He thinks Ribovics' regional competition is too low level and his grappling defense is suspect. He expects Radzhabov to take him down and dominate.
Connor picks Loik Radzhabov, relying on his wrestling and durability. He notes that Ribovics is a heavy-handed puncher but has limited grappling, and Radzhabov has never been knocked out. Connor thinks that if Radzhabov can survive the early exchanges, he will take the fight to the clinch and use his Greco-Roman wrestling to control the fight. He acknowledges the risk of Ribovics landing a knockout.
Jacob picks Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's tendency to get tired and put his hands down, which will leave him vulnerable to Ribovics' power. He believes Ribovics can survive the first round and then take over as Radzhabov fades. Jacob is 50/50 on the fight and sees value in a Ribovics finish in the second or third round.
Radzhabov is a grapple-heavy fighter who will close distance and drag the fight to the ground, where he does damage from top position. Ribovics has questionable takedown defense and his Kimura sweep path to his feet won't work at this level. Radzhabov will repeatedly take him down and grind out a decision victory.
Paul is confident in Radzhabov, calling it a talent gap. He thinks Ribovics' submission attempts won't work at this level and Radzhabov's pressure and takedowns will be too much. He notes Radzhabov's cardio is a concern but expects a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Loik Radzhabov over Esteban Ribovics, citing Radzhabov's experience against tough competition in PFL and his durability, having never been finished. He notes Ribovics' recent win was against a low-level opponent and doubts he can finish Radzhabov. He predicts a decision win for Radzhabov, 29-28.
Zane also picks Radzhabov, though he is hesitant. He notes that Ribovics is a powerful puncher but Radzhabov is durable and has a strong clinch game. Zane thinks that if Radzhabov can avoid getting knocked out early, he will grind out a win with his wrestling. He acknowledges that Ribovics could land a knockout, but Radzhabov's chin and experience give him the edge.
Terrance McKinney - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Kyle Nelson | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 |
| Kyle Nelson | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.
Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.
Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.
Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.
The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.
The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.
Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.
Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 31 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Duncan | 1 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 53 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 31 of 57 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 |
| Chris Duncan | 38 of 55 | 69% | 36 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 27 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his poor durability and cardio. He believes McKinney is incredibly dangerous early and can get the fight to the ground to find a finish. He notes that Chris Duncan is extremely durable and often comes back from being hurt, but Angelo thinks McKinney's early explosiveness will be enough. He advises against betting due to the high risk.
Big Brady picks Chris Duncan, noting McKinney's tendency to fade after early bursts and his seven career finishes. He highlights Duncan's improved ground game and chin, and expects Duncan to weather the early storm and knock out McKinney late in the first round.
Cody leans toward McKinney, citing his explosive start and finishing ability. He notes that McKinney's fights are usually over in the first round and that Duncan has shown a questionable chin. He mentions that if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan's cardio advantage could come into play, but he trusts McKinney's early burst.
Connor picks Chris Duncan, noting that Duncan has improved significantly at ATT, developing a calm, consistent striking game with good shot selection and power. He contrasts McKinney's all-gas-no-brakes style that fades after two minutes, and believes Duncan has the answers to McKinney's early blitz.
Daniel picks Duncan, reasoning that if he survives McKinney's first-round onslaught, he will take over. He notes McKinney has never been past the first round and fades, while Duncan has shown durability and finishing ability. He sees Duncan winning by knockout or submission in later rounds.
Lucrative James acknowledges his bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides detailed reasoning. He believes McKinney's only chance is an early finish, while Duncan's physicality, cardio, and improving grappling defense will carry him through. He notes Duncan's training with Grant Dawson and focus on back-take defense. He predicts Duncan wins inside the distance, likely by KO.
The host acknowledges the recent love for McKinney but expects Duncan to take advantage of McKinney's overaggressive style and find a finish within one and a half rounds.
Paul picks Duncan, emphasizing his multiple paths to victory. He notes that McKinney's win condition is a first-round finish, while Duncan has power, a guillotine choke, and cardio. He mentions that Duncan trains at American Top Team and has prepared for McKinney's wrestling. He believes if McKinney doesn't finish early, Duncan will take over.
The Guru picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging Duncan may be the better fighter. He believes McKinney's speed and first-round explosiveness will catch Duncan, who is hittable early. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO, possibly in the first minute.
Zane picks Chris Duncan, emphasizing that McKinney has never won a UFC fight outside the first two minutes and loses when his initial blitz fails. He notes Duncan's improved striking and power, and believes Duncan can weather the early storm and take over. Zane thinks the odds should be wider in Duncan's favor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney because he believes McKinney's early explosiveness will overwhelm Viacheslav Borshchev, who is older and may not be as durable as before. He notes that McKinney is reliable in that he either finishes early or loses, and he thinks McKinney will come out like a bat out of hell and get the job done. However, he admits he is picking against Borshchev more than for McKinney, and he will monitor the odds for a good betting spot.
Big Brady acknowledges McKinney is the rightful favorite due to his wrestling and power, but he is hesitant because both fighters have questionable durability. He notes Borshchev has terrible takedown defense and was dropped by Chase Hooper, but McKinney's cardio is atrocious and his durability is also suspect. Brady thinks McKinney will land first and win by first-round knockout, but if it leaves the first round, McKinney is in trouble.
The host notes McKinney's tendency for early finishes, but picks Borshchev to fend off the early grappling and get a TKO finish by the end of the first or early second round.
The host picks Terrance McKinney, citing his underrated grappling as the X-factor. He notes that Borshchev has shown weaknesses in grappling, as seen in his losses to Chase Hooper and others. However, he acknowledges McKinney's tendency to get knocked out spectacularly and sees the fight as a 50/50 on the feet. He believes McKinney will use his wrestling to secure a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 54 of 69 | 78% | 69 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:00 |
| Damir Hadžović | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 54 of 69 | 78% | 53 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 51 |
| Damir Hadžović | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite his unreliability, citing his superior talent, wrestling, and striking. He notes that Damir Hadžović is older (38) and not as dangerous. He worries about McKinney's cardio and chin but believes he should win early. He suggests looking at round props rather than betting the moneyline at -335.
Big Brady sees this as an easy matchup for Terrance McKinney, who has great wrestling and BJJ. Damir Hadžović has the worst takedown defense in the UFC and has been submitted before. Brady thinks McKinney will take him down and submit him in the first round, though he notes McKinney has terrible cardio if the fight extends. He predicts a first-round submission.
McKinney has a massive grappling advantage and will look to get the fight to the ground immediately. He is expected to take the back and secure a first-round submission, as he has done in all nine of his UFC fights. The fight is predicted to go under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO in the first round. He believes McKinney has finishing potential while Hadžović does not, and that Hadžović is past his prime and likely to be decisioned. He notes McKinney's losses are brutal but expects him to get the job done here.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Esteban Ribovics | 5 of 18 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 1 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Brendon Marotte | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 19 |
| Brendon Marotte | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round submission. He notes McKinney is dangerous early with power and wrestling, while Marotte is a big step up in competition and may not survive the first round. He warns that if Marotte survives, he could win, but expects McKinney to get it done quickly.
Cody picks McKinney, emphasizing that Marotte is a huge underdog with no recent fights and a shaky defense. He notes that McKinney's pressure and power are likely to overwhelm Marotte early. Cody suggests that if Marotte survives the first round, he could be live, but he doubts that will happen.
The host picks Terrance McKinney by round one, noting his explosive power and fast starts. He highlights that 19 of 20 McKinney fights finished under 1.5 rounds. However, he warns against the moneyline due to cardio issues and suggests taking McKinney round one or under 1.5 rounds.
Paul picks McKinney, noting his explosive first-round power and the fact that Marotte has no recent tape and is stepping in on short notice. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio issues but believes Marotte is not durable enough to survive the first round. Paul suggests betting McKinney round 1 or Marotte round 2 as value plays.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney to win by TKO over Brendan Marotte. He dismisses Marotte as an awful regional fighter who beat an 11-20 opponent and went to a split decision with an 8-4 fighter. He notes Marotte trains at New England Cartel but lacks quality wins. He believes McKinney has a speed advantage and won't be outgrappled, and that Marotte's short notice and lack of durability will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Breeden | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance McKinney | 30 of 47 | 63% | 23 of 36 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
| Mike Breeden | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks McKinney but with low confidence due to cardio concerns and the short-notice turnaround. He notes McKinney has solid wrestling and BJJ but gasses and has a questionable chin. He is staying away from the -400 odds but suggests prop bets like McKinney winning the first round or getting more takedowns.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by knockout early in the first round, likely within 60 seconds. He notes McKinney's dangerous striking and wrestling but acknowledges his poor cardio and short-notice fight. He believes McKinney will finish Breeden quickly, as Breeden has awful takedown defense and has been finished before. However, he cautions that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first round, he is likely to lose.
Cody picks Breeden by second-round finish as a prop bet, not on the moneyline. He notes McKinney's notorious cardio issues and short-notice fight (27 days after his last fight). He thinks if Breeden survives the first round, he will take over. He recommends a small sprinkle on Breeden round 2 at long odds, or live betting after the first round.
James is leaning toward Breeden as a value play, noting McKinney is a round-one-or-bust fighter and is priced at -300. He thinks Breeden is tough with good cardio and could survive the early storm. James admits McKinney could get back on track but feels the odds are too high for such a volatile fighter. He might bet Breeden.
McKinney has cardio issues but is extremely powerful and athletic early. Breeden is coming off a long layoff and camp change. McKinney's under 1.5 rounds streak is 18 of 19 fights, so the under is a strong play. McKinney should get the TKO in the first round due to his speed and power.
Paul also likes Breeden as a live underdog or round 2/3 prop. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after the first round and that Breeden has shown good cardio in past fights, especially in the third round against Natan Levy. He thinks Breeden can survive the initial onslaught and take over later. He recommends a small bet on Breeden round 2 or 3.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney but is hesitant, acknowledging McKinney's cardio issues and tendency to gas after round one. He believes McKinney is the better fighter and should win by first-round KO if he fights aggressively, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Breeden could take over. He suggests a live bet on Breeden if McKinney gasses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:55 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 21 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:20 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Terrance McKinney | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazim Sadykhov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nazim Sadykhov | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Terrance McKinney | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nazim Sadykhov | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Terrance McKinney | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.
Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.
Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.
The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.
Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as the more durable and dependable fighter, despite Terrance McKinney's raw talent and explosiveness. He notes Ribovics has been taken down 14 times in his last five fights, but McKinney has been finished in every loss. He acknowledges the fight is close to 50/50 and that McKinney could win if he lands early.
Big Brady picks Esteban Ribovics to survive McKinney's early storm and finish him in the late first or second round by knockout. He notes McKinney has never won a UFC fight past the first round and tends to gas if he doesn't finish early. Ribovics has durability, cardio, heart, and finishing ability. He expects McKinney to try wrestling, but if he doesn't finish, he will fade and get finished himself.
Cody picks Ribovics, noting that McKinney is a 'glass cannon' who gasses after the first round. He expects McKinney to come out fast and possibly take Ribovics down early, but Ribovics has shown he can survive and come back. Cody likes the under 1.5 rounds prop as parlay fodder, as McKinney fights are usually short. He suggests live betting Ribovics if McKinney wins the first round.
Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics, noting that McKinney is dangerous in the first round but fades if he doesn't get the finish. He believes Ribovics can survive the early onslaught and take over late, getting a finish. He mentions Ribovics' ability to get back to his feet and his late-round power.
The host expects McKinney's early explosiveness to overwhelm Ribovics, likely via knockout in round 1. He notes McKinney's tendency to gas but believes Ribovics' takedown defense issues will be exploited. He strongly recommends the under 1.5 rounds as a must-play, and also likes McKinney round 1 prop. The pick is confident for the early finish, though he acknowledges the risk if McKinney fails.
Paul picks Ribovics, agreeing that McKinney is a first-round specialist who fades. He notes that Ribovics has a strong chin and cardio, and can take McKinney's best shots. Paul expects Ribovics to survive the early storm and take over in the second round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds prop due to McKinney's tendency to finish or get finished quickly.
The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney as an underdog over Esteban Ribovics. He notes that McKinney has a wrestling background he doesn't always use but can rely on, and that Ribovics is hook-heavy with a reach disadvantage. He references Ribovics' fight with Kamuela Kirk where Kirk took him down and controlled him, suggesting McKinney can do the same. He also trusts McKinney's cardio and power on the feet.
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