Fight card

UFC 327

April 11, 2026 Kaseya Center Miami, Florida, United States
Fight 1 VS Light Heavyweight Completed
Carlos Ulberg

Carlos Ulberg W

15-1
KO R1 3:45

Jiří Procházka

KO/TKO
FanDuel +155
Submission
FanDuel +1600
Decision
BetRivers +700

Carlos Ulberg

Moneyline
Caesars +100
KO/TKO
FanDuel +185
Submission
Unibet +3500
Decision
FanDuel +500
Fighter Stats

Jiří Procházka

Age33
Height6' 3"
Reach80"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Carlos Ulberg

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Jiří Procházka

5.69SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
5.6SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.51TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carlos Ulberg

6.54SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.04SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (13)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Angelo picks Jiří Procházka, believing he will close the distance and make the fight ugly. He acknowledges Carlos Ulberg's technical striking and range management but doubts his power to knock out Procházka, citing Ulberg's KO victims as low-level. He thinks Procházka wins if he gets in the pocket and notes the odds are interesting.

"Jiří Procházka's going to be the pick. Minus 135, these odds are very, very interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Big Brady expects Procházka to be patient in the first round, then turn up the pressure in the second and third rounds, breaking Ulberg similar to how Kennedy Nzechukwu broke him. He notes Procházka's durability and power, but acknowledges his poor striking defense and the risk of being knocked out. He predicts a second-round knockout for Procházka.

second round knockout
"I'm taking Jiří Procházka. He could get knocked out here, Jiří. I always talk about the striking defense... give me Jiří Procházka to win this fight by second round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Cody leans towards Ulberg's technical striking and believes he can intercept Procházka early. He thinks Ulberg's tight style and jab will exploit Procházka's openings, but acknowledges it's a close fight.

"I think I'm edging to more towards Alberg... I just feel like Carlos Berg maybe intercepts him or within the first three rounds and puts him away."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Connor picks Procházka despite some concerns about his recent tendency to overthink and hesitate early in fights. He notes that Procházka has a clear striking plan and is a devastating finisher, while Ulberg's style relies on speed and clean single shots but lacks maintenance work and pressure. Connor believes Ulberg hasn't proven he can handle this level of pressure and that Procházka will eventually force exchanges and land fight-ending blows. He acknowledges Ulberg's speed and power but thinks Procházka's durability and finishing ability will prevail.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110. Connor thinks Procházka should be a favorite.
"I got to pick Prashazka here. But, you know, it's a great test for Olberg..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Ulberg because he believes Ulberg's precision striking and counter-fighting style will exploit Jiri's reckless aggression. He notes that Ulberg's jab and calf kicks can keep Jiri at range, and that Jiri's unorthodox style leaves openings for Ulberg's left hook. He also mentions that Ulberg has paid his dues and is ready for the title.

"I like Ulberg here. I think Ulberg's basics are significantly better than Jiri's, but I'm not sure about his cardio. So I think it'll balance out a little bit, but I like Ulberg to walk out of there …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

Daniel is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters have strong cases. He notes that both scenarios start with Ulberg lighting up Procházka, but he ultimately picks the underdog Ulberg to win by knockout, citing his left hook and calf kicks.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Carlos Goldberg to come out here, chop down the calf of the beloved Yuri Prohaska, and eventually find a home for that left hook, get a knockout, and take that belt home …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The host leans towards Procházka because of his proven toughness, durability, and kill-or-be-killed style, especially in a five-round fight. He notes Ulberg is the more technical striker, but Procházka's heart and ability to turn up the pressure when losing are major factors. He believes Ulberg may not have the same dog in him and could be overwhelmed by Procházka's relentless pressure.

Thinks fight likely ends inside the distance but odds are unplayable.
"I lean heavily towards Jairzinho here because I don't know if Overeem's got that dog in him, and that's often the difference in big, high-profile title fights such as this."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

James is unsure who will win the fight, leaning towards Jiří Procházka after the line moved, but he doesn't commit to a winner. Instead, he focuses on prop bets, covering both fighters in different rounds.

Carlos Ulberg win in round 1 (+700), round 2 (+900); Jiří Procházka win in round 3 (+1000), round 4 (+1300), round 5 (+1600)
"I was leaning Albazi earlier in the week, he was plus 120. Now at minus 110, I'm leaning Jiří. So that just tells me that I don't know and James, you should probably stay away unless you want …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Carlos Ulberg

James picks Carlos Ulberg as a slight underdog, reasoning that Ulberg will have his chance to win early and that Procházka has to survive the early storm. He acknowledges Procházka's advantages in experience and cardio but leans Ulberg because of the underdog value and early finishing potential.

Fight to end inside the distance; prop bets on Ulberg by KO in rounds 1-2 and Procházka by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Carlos Allberg. And there's a few reasons. The first reason is because he's an underdog, right? So I feel like this close this fight is close to 50/50, but Carlos is the underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Procházka's pressure and cardio are key in a five-round fight. He can absorb early shots and break opponents in later rounds. Ulberg is a good technical striker but may fade under Procházka's relentless pressure. Procházka's chin has held up against top competition, and Ulberg is not the same level of knockout threat as Pereira. Expect Procházka to finish in rounds 3 or 4.

Procházka wins in rounds 3 or 4
"I think Prohaska gets the finish in rounds three or round four."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Paul believes Procházka's chaotic style and cardio will allow him to survive early and finish late. He notes Procházka has never gone to decision in the UFC and expects a finish, possibly in later rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Yuri and say that Yuri survives early and probably gets a finish late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jiří Procházka

The MMA Guru picks Jiří Procházka over Carlos Ulberg, despite initially favoring Ulberg. He believes Procházka has improved his striking defense and head movement, and that Ulberg may break if the fight gets scrappy. He notes Procházka's baby is due the day after, and envisions a storybook win. He predicts Procházka will take over from the second half of round two onwards and win by TKO or decision.

"I'm going to go with Jiří Procházka, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jiří Procházka

Zane picks Procházka but expresses less faith than Connor, noting that Ulberg's style could flummox Procházka if he is too committed to his own approach. He points out that Procházka looked bad for two rounds against Khalil Rountree before turning it on, and that Ulberg's speed and clean punching could hurt Procházka. However, Zane believes Procházka will eventually go for it and that his finishing ability is the difference. He also notes that light heavyweight is a division where anyone can get knocked out, but Procházka's track record of finishes gives him the edge.

Odds comment: Procházka opened +145, dropped to -120, currently -110; Ulberg opened -170, jumped to +105, currently -110.
"I don't have as much faith in the area as I as I once did. I think there's a possibility that Olberg is so committed to his style that Yuri may be a little flummoxed."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 1 month, 3 weeks ago

Ulberg could be franked by Reyes fight

Fight 2 VS Light Heavyweight Completed
Paulo Costa

Paulo Costa W

16-4
TKO R3 1:23

Azamat Murzakanov

Moneyline
Caesars -195
KO/TKO
Polymarket +220
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
Kalshi +190

Paulo Costa

Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
BetRivers +430
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
FanDuel +550
Fighter Stats

Azamat Murzakanov

Age37
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Paulo Costa

Age35
Height6' 1"
Reach72.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Azamat Murzakanov

4.7SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.55TD Avg
15.0%TD Acc.
87.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Paulo Costa

6.26SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
6.2SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.32TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Angelo picks Azamat Murzakanov, citing his power, wrestling, and knockdowns in every UFC fight. He acknowledges Paulo Costa's recent good performance but is skeptical of Costa moving up in weight and his history of canceled fights. He expects Azamat to bring pressure and suggests a possible over 1.5 rounds bet.

over 1.5 rounds
"Azamat's going to be the pick. Maybe we get lucky enough for a one and a half round line because I do think this is going to go a little bit longer."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Big Brady is impressed with Murzakanov's speed, power, takedown defense, and defensive striking. He notes that Murzakanov's cardio has improved and he carries power late. He doubts Paulo Costa's recent performances, citing losses to Vettori, Strickland, and Adesanya. He predicts Murzakanov wins by decision, possibly hurting Costa but not finishing him.

decision
"I like Merzikanov in this matchup... give me Azamat Merzikanov to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Cody picks Costa as an underdog, believing he can weather Murzakanov's early storm and outwork him in later rounds. He notes Murzakanov's low volume and Costa's durability, expecting a decision win for Costa.

"I am actually going to take Paul Costa. Very small stakes, but I feel like he weathers the early storm and just outworks him down in rounds two and three."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Connor picks Murzakanov, citing Costa's inconsistency and lack of defensive awareness. He notes that Murzakanov is a one-shot knockout artist with excellent timing and defensive awareness, and that Costa's high-volume, low-defense style leaves him vulnerable. Connor also questions Costa's motivation and his move up to light heavyweight, suggesting that Murzakanov's calm, patient approach will allow him to land a clean shot. He compares Murzakanov to Fedor Emelianenko in terms of timing and cage craft.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I got to take, I got to take Merzicon off just wait, Costa..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel Vreeland picks Azamat Murzakanov because he believes Murzakanov is criminally underrated and has been disrespected by oddsmakers. He notes that Murzakanov has heavy hands and good wrestling, and that Costa's cardio and discipline are questionable. He also points out that Costa's move up to light heavyweight may not help his psyche or performance.

"I got Murzakanov here, and I think he's being disrespected again, coach."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Daniel believes Murzakanov is being disrespected and sees him as a heavy hitter with good takedown defense. He thinks Costa gets discouraged in fights and that Murzakanov will box him up.

"I feel like people are disrespecting Mzakanov and I'm going to come out here and pick him and I think that he boxes up Paulo Costa."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The host thinks the odds are too aggressive favoring Murzakanov (implied probability 67%) and would cap the fight closer to 50/50. He believes Costa has better cardio and is the more complete striker, while Murzakanov is a better boxer with more power but fades after the first round. He prefers the underdog value on Costa but is not confident in a win.

Likes Costa +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision.
"If I were capping this fight personally, I would probably have it closer to 50/50. I don't really know why Merab Dvalishvili is such a big favorite."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

James picks Murzakanov, citing his power, speed, and accuracy advantage over Costa, who he believes is on a downtrend and not suited for light heavyweight. He expects Murzakanov to hurt Costa early and possibly finish him.

"I did end up picking Azimat Makanov as my official pick. And I do think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Paulo Costa

Costa's durability and volume should be too much for Murzakanov, who relies heavily on knockout power. Murzakanov has been close to losing in several fights and his power may not phase Costa. Costa's athleticism and counter-striking can neutralize Murzakanov's blitzes. Costa looked sharp against Kopylov and can outpoint or even knock out Murzakanov. This is a winnable fight for Costa at plus money.

Costa wins by knockout
"I'm gonna go Costa here to pull off the upset. I think he ends up landing a big shot on Mzakonov."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Paul favors Murzakanov due to Costa's questionable commitment and Murzakanov's knockout power. He thinks Costa may be one foot in, one foot out, while Murzakanov's sole purpose is knocking dudes out.

"Makana is a side for me. What about you? Yeah, I'm gonna go with Paulo Costa..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Paulo Costa

The MMA Guru picks Paulo Costa over Azamat Murzakanov. He is very confident, calling it a 'masterclass'. He believes Costa's speed, body kicks, and technical striking will be too much for Murzakanov, who he thinks is overrated and whose best days are behind him. He predicts a TKO in round two via body kick or similar.

"You're about to witness a Paulo Costa masterclass."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Azamat Murzakanov

Zane picks Murzakanov, emphasizing Costa's psychological fragility and tendency to fade when pressured. He notes that Murzakanov does a lot of maintenance work—cutting off the cage, feinting, and being defensively aware—which will set up his knockout power. Zane also points out that Costa's only recent good performance was against Roman Kopylov, and that moving up to light heavyweight again raises questions about his commitment. He believes Murzakanov's timing and power will be too much for Costa, who is prone to getting hit and may not want to engage.

Odds comment: Murzakanov opened -155, currently -187; Costa opened +135, currently +162.
"I think this may be one of those fights where that genuinely is the deciding factor. Yeah, because Marzakonov landing a clean shot on Paula Costa may not be so different from Israel, out of Sonia landing a …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 3 VS Heavyweight Completed
Josh Hokit

Josh Hokit W

9-0
Decision R3 5:00

Curtis Blaydes

Moneyline
FanDuel +100
KO/TKO
BetRivers +265
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
FanDuel +320

Josh Hokit

Moneyline
BetWay +100
KO/TKO
Polymarket +260
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
Kalshi +600
Fighter Stats

Curtis Blaydes

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach80.0"
Weight265 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Josh Hokit

Age28
Height6' 1"
Reach73"
Weight236 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Curtis Blaydes

3.56SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
2.0SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
5.38TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
31.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Josh Hokit

6.07SLpM
66.0%Str. Acc.
0.83SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
8.74TD Avg
46.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his experience and wrestling, though he notes Blaydes' poor chin and recent struggles. He is skeptical of Josh Hokit's level of competition and thinks Blaydes can survive early chaos and take over late. He stays away from betting due to the fight's unpredictability.

"Curtis has to be the pick here. I'm likely staying far away from anything that resembles a bet because this fight could go a million different ways."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Big Brady is intrigued by Josh Barnett (Hokit) despite the massive step up in competition. He notes Blaydes has been knocked out five times and has stopped wrestling, while Barnett has shown pressure and power. He thinks Barnett could knock out Blaydes or get takedowns and ground-and-pound. He finds the line weird, expecting Blaydes to be a bigger favorite.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Josh Barnett for the upset... I'm going to say Josh Barnett knocks out Curtis Blaydes for the sixth time. Give me Josh Barnett by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Cody also picks Hokit, emphasizing his athleticism, pace, and wrestling. He thinks Hokit's speed and pressure will overwhelm Blaydes, who has a history of knockout losses and is coming off a knee injury.

"I love Josh Hoget this week. And I had honestly when I first looked at the matchup... I really came away from it being like, okay, Hoget's gonna absolutely kill him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Connor picks Blaydes but is hesitant, noting that Blaydes has unlearned MMA by becoming overly technical and anxious. He points out that Hokit is a raw fighter with speed and power takedowns, but his striking is just bravado. Connor believes Blaydes should win by using his wrestling and pressure, but he worries that Blaydes' anxiety and tendency to overthink could lead to a loss. He says he won't be shocked if Blaydes loses, which is stupid for a fight like this.

Odds comment: Blaydes opened -160, currently -135; Hokit opened +140, currently +115.
"I think I'm still going to pick him. I'm still going to pick him, but I won't be shocked at all if he loses, which is stupid for a fight like this..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Daniel Vreeland picks Josh Hokit as an underdog, citing Hokit's superior wrestling credentials, athleticism, and speed. He believes Blaydes' chin is compromised after multiple knockouts and that Hokit can catch him. However, he acknowledges the risk due to Blaydes' experience and reach, and is not as confident as his co-hosts.

"I like Barnett here. I think if he's going to win it, he's got to catch him though. He's got to clip him. I'm not as confident as you two about the Barnett win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Daniel is high on Hokit, comparing his style to a young Cain Velasquez. He thinks Blaydes is on the decline, chinny, and coming off a poor performance, while Hokit has better wrestling and faster hands.

"I think that Hokit is the better wrestler. I think Hokit has faster hands. I think Hokit is a lot more confident. And I think Saturday night... Josh Hok is going to come out here and not Curtis …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host believes Blaydes is a good bet because Hokit is an unknown who has never faced top competition, while Blaydes is arguably the best MMA grappler in the heavyweight division. He notes Hokit's striking looks flat and he lacks power, making it unlikely he can exploit Blaydes' weakness on the feet. Additionally, Hokit's cringey antics add pressure and performance anxiety, which historically few fighters handle well. He caps Blaydes at 60% chance of winning, providing value at the current odds.

Thinks fight likely goes to decision; no specific prop bets mentioned.
"By default, if you have a brain and you have eyes, kind of have to lean Blades pretty heavily here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

James picks Blaydes due to his experience and ability to weather early pressure, expecting Hokit to fade after the first round. He acknowledges Hokit's potential but believes it's too soon for him.

"I'm going to pick Curtis Blades here, but it's a close fight. Skill for skill, it's a close fight, but I got Curtis Blades edging it in round two and round three with his experience advantage and winning …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Blaydes is a veteran with superior wrestling and experience. Hokit is a prospect but this is a massive step up in competition. Hokit's cardio is questionable after expending energy in previous fights. Blaydes can outwrestle and outpoint Hokit, and may even finish him in rounds 2 or 3. Hokit lacks the knockout power to threaten Blaydes, who only loses to elite power punchers.

Blaydes wins inside the distance (rounds 2 or 3)
"I'm going to go Blades here. ... I think he gets a finish in round two or round three."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Hokit

Paul is very confident in Hokit, citing Blaydes' durability issues, knee injury, and Hokit's superior wrestling and pace. He believes Hokit will swarm Blaydes early and get a finish.

"I think he's I think Hoget's going to kill him. Like, I'm actually quite confident of it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes over Josh Hokit. He believes Blaydes is too composed and experienced, and Hokit's wins are over unranked heavyweights. He notes Blaydes moves well and has good grappling defense. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round, possibly catching Hokit coming in.

"I'm going to go with Blades. I don't see him getting overwhelmed and finished in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Zane picks Blaydes but shares Connor's hesitation, emphasizing Blaydes' psychological decline and tendency to avoid his strengths. He notes that Hokit is a mess but has speed and power, and if Blaydes doesn't wrestle, he could walk into a shot. Zane thinks Blaydes should easily out-grapple Hokit, but his anxiety and poor fight IQ make this a dangerous fight. He hopes for a motivated Blaydes but isn't confident.

Odds comment: Blaydes opened -160, currently -135; Hokit opened +140, currently +115.
"I think I'm still going to pick him. I'm still going to pick him, but I won't be shocked at all if he loses..."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Dominick Reyes

Dominick Reyes W

16-5
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Dominick Reyes

Moneyline
BetWay -138
KO/TKO
FanDuel +115
Submission
BetWay +2000
Decision
Polymarket +850

Johnny Walker

Moneyline
Caesars +125
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel +750
Fighter Stats

Dominick Reyes

Age36
Height6' 4"
Reach77.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Johnny Walker

Age34
Height6' 6"
Reach82.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Dominick Reyes

5.39SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.49SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.29TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
82.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Johnny Walker

4.06SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
3.09SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
0.42TD Avg
60.0%TD Acc.
57.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Angelo hesitantly picks Dominick Reyes, calling him the more technical fighter despite both having poor chins. He notes Reyes revived his career but is still chinny, while Johnny Walker is wild and dangerous. He admits his instincts said Walker but went against them, finding the fight hard to bet on.

"I'm going to pick Dominick. I think he's just the more technical of the two. If he can avoid getting caught up in the craziness, then he should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady calls this a battle of chins, noting both have poor striking defense and power. He favors Reyes because his losses are to higher-level competition (Jones, Procházka, Błachowicz, Ulberg) compared to Walker's losses to Oezdemir, Ankalaev, Hill, and Anderson. He predicts a first-round knockout by Reyes but admits it's a toss-up.

first round knockout
"I'm going to lean Dominick Reyes... give me Dominick Reyes to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Cody also picks Reyes, citing Walker's poor defense and recent sparring knockout. He thinks Reyes' straight punches will land first and knock out Walker, but acknowledges it's a volatile fight.

"I am going to actually go with Dominic Grace as well... I just feel like Reyes is going to be able to snipe him, hit him with something before the damage comes the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Reyes confidently, arguing that Johnny Walker has ruined his career by becoming overly technical and losing his natural aggression. He notes that Reyes is still fast and throws long straight shots that should topple Walker. Connor also points out that Walker's tendency to throw wild techniques and his poor fight IQ will play into Reyes' hands. He acknowledges that Reyes could get caught by a big punch, but believes Walker will avoid throwing it for as long as possible.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"So I have to pick Reyes here. Yeah, I don't think he's actually at SVG Ireland anymore."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

Daniel Vreeland picks Johnny Walker as a slight lean, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes that stylistically, Walker's counter-punching and reach advantage may give him an edge, but both fighters have questionable chins. He ultimately goes with Walker to play devil's advocate.

over 1.5 rounds (+158)
"I'm going to go Walker for nothing more to play devil's advocate. Like I said, this is a 50/50 fight to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel sees this as a toss-up but gives Reyes the edge due to being slightly more technical and accomplished. He acknowledges Walker's danger but thinks Reyes has historically been better.

"I think that Dominic Reyes has always been slightly better than Johnny Walker. Slightly a bit more technical, more well-rounded, and has just accomplished a little bit more than Walker. So, I'm going to pick him for that …"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Johnny Walker

The host leans towards Walker because Reyes has been knocked out multiple times recently and Walker has significant power. He sees the fight as likely ending in a Walker KO or Reyes decision, and given Reyes' chin issues, Walker's path seems more probable. However, he does not rate Walker highly and finds it difficult to trust either fighter.

"Walker is probably my lean on this one, but not with any amount of confidence cuz I don't rate Walker particularly highly."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

James picks Johnny Walker, believing his unorthodox style can catch Reyes, who relies on athleticism. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and expects a knockout, possibly early.

"I'm picking Johnny Walker in this one, right? And the reason I'm doing that is because he's a little bit more unorthodox and I feel like if you're unorthodox you can catch Dominic Reyes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Johnny Walker

This is a coin flip fight between two power punchers with shaky chins. Reyes is the more technical striker but his durability is a major concern. Walker has a reach and height advantage and can use lateral movement and calf kicks to set up his power. If Walker lands first, he likely finishes Reyes. The line is close, so taking the plus money on Walker is the value play.

Walker wins by knockout
"I end up siding with Walker ever so slightly. I think he'll end up finding that chin on Reyes and putting him away."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul leans towards Reyes, preferring his striking technique and believing he is the cleaner striker. He acknowledges the fight is highly volatile and not very confident.

"I'm gonna I'm gonna side with Dom Reyes just because I I prefer his his striking technique, his style."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The MMA Guru picks Dominick Reyes over Johnny Walker. He thinks Walker is goofy and will make a mistake, allowing Reyes to counter with an uppercut or straight shot. He notes Reyes has good finishing instincts, as seen against Jacoby. He predicts a KO in the second round, possibly late in the first.

"I'm going to go with Dominic Reyes getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane picks Reyes, echoing Connor's view that Walker has deteriorated under SBG Ireland. He notes that Reyes should be able to sit down on one-twos, check kicks, and stay composed while Walker throws himself wildly forward or backward. Zane also mentions that Walker's coach Owen Roddy hasn't helped, and that Walker's game has lost all cohesion. He believes Reyes' speed and straight punches will be enough to win, though he acknowledges that Reyes can't be fully trusted.

Odds comment: Reyes opened -150, currently -141; Walker opened +130, currently +121.
"Reyes really should just be able to sit down on one twos, check a couple kicks, be reasonably composed while Walker either throws himself wildly forward or throws himself wildly backward."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Cub Swanson

Cub Swanson W

31-14
TKO R1 4:06
Fight 5 VS Featherweight Completed

Cub Swanson

Moneyline
FanDuel -110
KO/TKO
BetRivers +290
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
Polymarket +290

Nate Landwehr

Moneyline
Caesars +118
KO/TKO
BetRivers +380
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +350
Fighter Stats

Cub Swanson

Age42
Height5' 8"
Reach70.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Nate Landwehr

Age37
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Cub Swanson

4.79SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
4.0SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.01TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Nate Landwehr

5.63SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
5.83SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
0.76TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 6 VS Featherweight Completed
Aaron Pico

Aaron Pico W

14-5
Decision R3 5:00

Patrício Pitbull

Moneyline
BetWay +275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +550
Submission
Kalshi +1600
Decision
BetRivers +750

Aaron Pico

KO/TKO
BetRivers +205
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
FanDuel +220
Fighter Stats

Patrício Pitbull

Age38
Height5' 6"
Reach67"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Aaron Pico

Age29
Height5' 8"
Reach70"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Patrício Pitbull

2.68SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.23SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.49TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
88.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Aaron Pico

3.88SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.39SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
8.96TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
0.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo confidently picks Aaron Pico, calling him bigger, faster, stronger, and better everywhere. He acknowledges Pitbull's legendary career but notes his age (39) and believes Pico should dominate. He suggests Pico should be a much heavier favorite, calling minus 300 good value.

"Aaron Pico is the pick. Minus 300, I would hop on that now. He should genuinely be minus five, six, seven, minus 800."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Big Brady is impressed with Pico's elite wrestling, power, and body work, but notes his durability issues (all losses inside the distance). He thinks Pitbull is dangerous but aging (38) and has shown vulnerability. He predicts Pico will get takedowns and ground-and-pound for a second-round TKO, though he dislikes the -300 price.

second round TKO
"I like Pico here to get it done... I'm going to go Pico to bounce back here and get a second round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody passes on this fight, unable to trust Pico's chin at such a high price. He acknowledges the logic but cannot bring himself to bet on Pico.

"I don't think I could click it. I don't think I could click it because I would just hate myself too much if he gets stiffed on like an overhand right in round one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor picks Patrício based on his one-shot power and Pico's defensive vulnerability. He notes that Pico gets blindsided when hit and has no defensive awareness, while Patrício still has a quick, powerful shot. However, he acknowledges Patrício's decline in choosiness and hesitancy, which could give Pico early leash.

Odds too wide; Patrício opened +180 now +270, Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to pick Patricio, but I, yeah, I cannot help, but acknowledge that the man does not have long left in the sport and Aaron Pico is super dangerous."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel Vreeland picks Aaron Pico, citing Pico's youth, size, and physicality. He believes Pico will crowd Pitbull and use his grappling to neutralize Pitbull's distance management. He acknowledges Pitbull's power and counter-striking but thinks age and weight cuts have slowed him down.

"I think Pico wins this and I think putting money on Pitbull is a perfectly fine situation at plus 265 given the situation, but I still think he loses."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Daniel acknowledges Pico's chin issues but thinks his skill advantage is significant. He picks Pico but warns that Pitbull is a live dog if Pico is gunshy.

"I think as a pure pick, I'm going to go Pico. But from a betting perspective, this is a dog or pass situation."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

James picks Aaron Pico, expecting him to be more reserved after his knockout loss and use his superior boxing and wrestling to dominate Pitbull. He predicts a KO victory.

"I'm definitely picking Aaron here. I'm actually picking him via KO."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Pico should use his wrestling to neutralize Pitbull's power. Pitbull is dangerous but low output and older. Pico's wrestling is elite and he can grind out a decision. However, the line is too steep at -315; value is not there. Pico needs to be calm and avoid brawling. A wrestle-heavy approach should secure the win.

Pico wins by decision
"I'm looking for a wrestle heavy approach from Pico. ... I think Pico wins. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Paul picks Pico despite the high price, believing Pico's wrestling and athleticism will be key. He thinks Pico will use takedowns to neutralize Pitbull's power and grind out a decision.

"I'm taking Pico. I got Pico. It's the minus 300 Paul. Like, how much faith do you have in a guy that's constantly been a letdown?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

The MMA Guru picks Patrício Pitbull over Aaron Pico, despite Pico being a -300 favorite. He questions Pico's chin and notes he has been KO'd multiple times. He believes Pitbull is crafty and experienced, and can catch Pico late in the second or third round by TKO. He thinks the odds should be evens.

Odds comment: Pico at -300 is crazy, should be evens.
"I'm thinking Pitbull because I just seriously can't trust Aaron Pico to get hit flash on the chin."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

Zane picks Pico despite his defensive flaws, citing Patrício's recent fragility and choosiness. He notes that Pico is an elite athlete who can roll downhill and that Patrício has been looking more fragile, getting iced early by Chihiro Suzuki. However, he admits Pico's defensive issues are stark and he doesn't feel good about the pick.

Odds too wide; Pico opened -210 now -330
"I'm going to take Pico here. I hate to do it, but I think you, you love to do it."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mateusz Gamrot

Mateusz Gamrot W

26-4
Submission R2 4:19
Fight 7 VS Lightweight Completed

Mateusz Gamrot

Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
Unibet +106

Esteban Ribovics

Moneyline
Caesars +195
KO/TKO
Unibet +500
Submission
BetRivers +2900
Decision
FanDuel +500
Fighter Stats

Mateusz Gamrot

Age35
Height5' 10"
Reach70.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Esteban Ribovics

Age30
Height5' 10"
Reach69.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mateusz Gamrot

3.29SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
2.96SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
5.15TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Esteban Ribovics

8.09SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
6.3SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.39TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Angelo picks Esteban Ribovics as an underdog, highlighting his superior striking, power, and scrambling ability. He notes Gamrot's chinny nature and lack of finishing threat, while Ribovics is dangerous everywhere. He suggests a plus 3.5 prop bet if afraid of the moneyline, expecting Ribovics to not get finished or shut out.

plus 3.5 prop bet
"I'm going to go with the dog here. Estevan's going to be the pick. If you're afraid of the plus 145 money line, wait a few days and do the plus three and a half prop bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Gamrot to get takedowns but Ribovics to get back up and outland him on the feet with volume and power. He compares it to the Gamrot-Turner fight where Turner did more damage. He thinks it goes to a split decision and takes the dog Ribovics, trusting the judges to score damage over control.

split decision
"I'm going to say it's going to go to Ribovics. I think this has split decision written all over it... give me the dog here and Esteban Ribovics to get it done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Cody picks Ribovics as an underdog, citing his high volume, power, and improved takedown defense. He thinks Ribovics can outwork Gamrot on the feet and win a decision.

"I'm gonna take the guy that's getting the damage and you got yourself an Argentinian immigrant living in Florida... slight better damage from Rivix leads to a slight decision victory for Riavix."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Connor picks Gamrot because of his superior takedown ability, which gives him a 'get out of jail free card' whenever Ribovics makes him uncomfortable on the feet. He notes that Ribovics struggles against wrestlers, as seen in the Loic Rajabov fight where he was taken down 11 times. He acknowledges Gamrot's unreliability but trusts his wrestling to control the fight.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel Vreeland picks Esteban Ribovics as a risky underdog, believing that Gamrot is on the decline and that Ribovics' cardio and pressure can exploit Gamrot's slowing reflexes and compromised chin. He notes that Ribovics gets back up from takedowns and lands damage, but acknowledges Gamrot is the better fighter on paper.

"I'm with you, especially because Ribovics is a cardio machine. He fought my guy Kamuela Kirk, and he just would not stop coming."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

Daniel thinks Gamrot is on the decline and his style has been figured out. He believes Ribovics has improved his takedown defense and will outwork Gamrot on the feet.

"I think that Estabbon Rivix has leveled up and I think he's going to come out here and he's going to put the damage on Mat Gamro."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

The host finds this fight very difficult to bet pre-fight due to Ribovics' unknown takedown defense improvement since his loss to Radzhabov. He notes Gamrot's cardio issues and Ribovics' cardio advantage, making it risky to bet either side. He suggests the most likely outcome is Gamrot winning the first two rounds and coasting to a 29-28 decision, but also sees a path for Ribovics if his takedown defense has improved.

Likes Ribovics +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes to decision but over odds are too steep.
"This is a really difficult fight from a betting point of view because there's no way that you would want to be betting Ribovic against a strong MMA grappler like Gamrot..."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

James picks the underdog Ribovics, citing Gamrot's recent losses and potential decline, and Ribovics' belief in himself. He sees it as a close fight where Ribovics could win a decision.

"I'm going to pick another underdog here, boys. I mean, this is Dog City."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Gamrot's grappling is a level above what Ribovics has faced. Ribovics has improved takedown defense but Gamrot's chain wrestling is relentless. However, Ribovics has a striking edge and could steal rounds if he defends takedowns. Gamrot's experience and pressure should wear Ribovics down over three rounds. It's a sketchy matchup but Gamrot's grappling gives him the edge.

Gamrot wins by decision
"I'm still going to go Gamerot. I'll lean on his grappling. I'll lean on his experience and I think that's going to be enough for him to go out there, grind this fight out and win it on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Paul picks Gamrot, believing his wrestling and control will be enough to win rounds. He is not very confident and acknowledges Ribovics' takedown defense improvement.

"I'm still going to go game, but not very confidently. I think just takedowns control over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Esteban Ribovics

The MMA Guru picks Esteban Ribovics over Mateusz Gamrot. He believes Ribovics is explosive, high-volume, and has good takedown defense. He notes Gamrot gets hurt on the feet and struggled with Dan Hooker's scrambles. He predicts Ribovics will drop Gamrot and win a decision, similar to the Hooker fight.

"I'm going to go with Esteban Ribovics here over Mateusz Gamrot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Gamrot

Zane picks Gamrot, agreeing that his takedown ability is the key. He notes that Ribovics is not the kind of guy UFC matches against wrestlers, and his last fight against a wrestler (Rajabov) saw him taken down 11 times. He acknowledges that Gamrot is unreliable but believes his wrestling will be decisive.

"I got to pick him. Yeah, me too."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Kevin Holland

Kevin Holland W

29-15
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Welterweight Completed

Kevin Holland

Moneyline
Caesars -105
KO/TKO
Kalshi +400
Submission
Unibet +575
Decision
FanDuel +430

Randy Brown

Moneyline
FanDuel +108
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +205
Fighter Stats

Kevin Holland

Age33
Height6' 3"
Reach81.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Randy Brown

Age35
Height6' 3"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kevin Holland

4.26SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.22SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Randy Brown

4.49SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.33SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.76TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of …"
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Tatiana Suarez

Tatiana Suarez W

13-1
Submission R2 2:29
Fight 9 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Tatiana Suarez

KO/TKO
BetRivers +1800
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetRivers +135

Loopy Godinez

KO/TKO
Unibet +2500
Submission
Unibet +2500
Decision
BetRivers +160
Fighter Stats

Tatiana Suarez

Age35
Height5' 5"
Reach66.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Loopy Godinez

Age32
Height5' 2"
Reach61.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tatiana Suarez

2.95SLpM
60.0%Str. Acc.
1.58SApM
45.0%Str. Def.
4.41TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Loopy Godinez

4.51SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
4.03SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
2.96TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
81.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana Suarez despite finding her boring, citing her dominant wrestling and predictability. He acknowledges Loopy Godinez's skills and striking but criticizes her low fight IQ and poor decisions. He believes Loopy could win if she sticks to striking but expects her to make mistakes and end up on her back.

"If I was picking off only actual skills, Loopy's the pick, but I got to factor in the brain. So, unless I see footage of Loopy at a Kumon tutoring center, the pick's going to have to be …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Big Brady is worried about Tatiana Suarez after her poor performances against Zhang Weili and Amanda Lemos, noting she gassed and couldn't get dominant positions. He thinks Loopy Godinez has good takedown defense and superior striking with volume and boxing. He expects a close split decision and leans Godinez.

decision
"I'm going to lean with the dog here in Loopy Godinez to get it done. I'll take her to get it done by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Cody picks Godinez, citing Suarez's injuries, layoffs, and declining wrestling. He thinks Godinez's scrambling, boxing, and volume will earn her a decision win.

"I'm going to go the other way here. Take Loopy... I think Lupy's going to be landing the shots... she's going to edge out this decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor picks Suarez over three rounds, citing her superior wrestling and size. He notes that Suarez will get Godinez down and control her, as Godinez is also a wrestler but not at Suarez's level. He mentions that the fight should be five rounds to see if Godinez can survive and force Suarez to gas, but over three rounds it's a foregone conclusion.

Odds too wide; Suarez opened -225 now -150, Godinez opened +190 now +130. Should be -300/-400.
"I got to pick Suarez over three rounds to beat Lupita Godinas. She's just going to start too strong and Godinas isn't to finish her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Loopy Godinez as an underdog, believing that Tatiana Suarez is in decline after injuries and poor performances. He thinks Godinez's wrestling can keep the fight standing and that she has better striking. He acknowledges Godinez's questionable in-fight decisions but sees value at plus money.

"I'm going to go Loopy sprawl and brawl keep this fight standing. She's got the wrestling to keep this standing. She's got better hands than Tatiana."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

Daniel believes Suarez is on a decline due to injuries and age, while Godinez has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and better hands. He picks Godinez to win by decision.

"I'm going to pick Lupy Godz to come out here and get this upset. Most likely unanimous decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Loopy Godinez

James picks the underdog Godinez, fading Suarez for the third time. He believes Suarez has declined and that Godinez can win a striking battle, though he acknowledges Suarez's size and fight IQ advantages.

"I am actually going to pick her to defeat Suarez as the underdog again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Suarez is the best wrestler in the division and should dominate Godinez on the ground. Godinez has a slight striking edge but her wrestling is not at Suarez's level. Suarez's size and reach advantage will help her close distance for takedowns. She can grind out a decision or find a submission. The line is surprisingly low for Suarez, offering value.

Suarez wins by decision
"I like Suarez here. ... I think Suarez will grind her out. I think she'll make it look fairly dominant as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Paul picks Suarez, believing her wrestling is still superior and she can control Godinez. He acknowledges her decline but thinks she has one more good performance.

"I'm going with Tatiana. Am I am I I do see, you know, since she came back from injury, frankly, I do see... I'm not picking against my girl Tatiana Suarez for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Loopy Godinez

The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez over Tatiana Suarez, though he admits it's a questionable pick. He likes Godinez's scrambles and grappling defense, and thinks Suarez's stand-up is abysmal. He believes Godinez can eke out a 29-28 decision as a slight underdog, citing Suarez's injury history and potential 'loser energy' from her husband Patchy Mix.

"I'm going to go with Loopy Godinez. Um and I'm and I'm stupid for that."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, agreeing that she will dominate early and Godinez won't be able to finish her. He notes that Suarez's wrestling is too strong and Godinez's boxing isn't good enough to keep her off. He also comments that the odds are too slim and should be wider in Suarez's favor.

Odds too slim; Suarez should be -300/-400.
"I'll take Suarez as well."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 10 VS Catchweight (158 lb) Completed

Chris Padilla

Moneyline
FanDuel -148
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
FanDuel +155

Marquel Mederos

KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetRivers +3300
Decision
Polymarket +250
Fighter Stats

Chris Padilla

Age30
Height5' 9"
Reach74.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Marquel Mederos

Age29
Height5' 10"
Reach69.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Chris Padilla

4.78SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
3.87SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.18TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
75.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marquel Mederos

4.84SLpM
56.0%Str. Acc.
2.99SApM
58.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Fight 11 VS Middleweight Completed
Vicente Luque

Vicente Luque W

24-12-1
Submission R1 4:08

Kelvin Gastelum

Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
Polymarket +180
Submission
FanDuel +2200
Decision
BetRivers +205

Vicente Luque

Moneyline
Caesars +235
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
Unibet +1400
Decision
FanDuel +440
Fighter Stats

Kelvin Gastelum

Age34
Height5' 9"
Reach71.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Vicente Luque

Age34
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kelvin Gastelum

3.67SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
3.53SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.01TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Vicente Luque

4.83SLpM
51.0%Str. Acc.
5.3SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
0.9TD Avg
48.0%TD Acc.
60.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum despite his unreliability, citing his skills, granite chin, and wrestling advantage. He believes Vicente Luque has never been the same since the brain bleed and is fighting up a weight class. He acknowledges Gastelum's poor work ethic but thinks he should win, calling the odds appropriate.

"I have to pick Kelvin here. If you refuse to bet on him, I get it. No pressure. He should win, and honestly, I think these odds are actually pretty appropriate."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady believes Vicente Luque is past his prime after a brain injury and has shown fear of getting hit, pulling guard and covering up in recent fights. He thinks Gastelum will land big shots and TKO Luque, predicting a second-round knockout. He calls it his hot take of the week.

second round knockout
"My hot take of the week is Kelvin Gastelum gets his first knockout since 2017 against Vicente Luque... I think he knocks out Vicente Luque in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Cody also picks Gastelum, citing Luque's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Gastelum's left hand and toughness will be too much for the fading Luque.

"I think Gaston wins it... either he's going to get knocked out and separated from consciousness or just be one punch behind the punch stats every round and end up losing a tight decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum because Luque is moving up to middleweight and has lost speed, while Gastelum's game is built for the division. He notes that Gastelum's durability and power in the pocket will be too much for a slower Luque, and that Luque's style doesn't translate well to middleweight. He acknowledges both are past their prime but trusts Gastelum's natural advantages.

"We got to pick Gasolim."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel Vreeland picks Kelvin Gastelum, citing Luque's decline after a brain bleed and brutal knockouts. He believes Gastelum's durability and power will be too much for Luque, who may not have the confidence or chin to engage in a war. He also notes that the fight is at middleweight, which benefits Gastelum.

"I got Kelvin as well. One last thing here is this fight's at 185 and not 170. So, Luque I think that benefits Kelvin significantly here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Daniel thinks Luque's chin and confidence are gone after taking too much damage, while Gastelum is still durable. He predicts Gastelum will knock out Luque.

"I'm going to pick Kelvin Gastlam to come out here and knock out Vasante Luca."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

James picks Gastelum confidently, believing Luque is more shot and that Gastelum's durability and boxing will prevail. He predicts a knockout, noting Luque's recent struggles.

"I've got Kelvin Gasselum here quite confidently. Honestly, I think he's going to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum's power and durability should be too much for Luque, who has been declining and getting finished. Luque's wars have caught up to him, and he struggles with pressure. Gastelum's boxing and knockout power can put Luque away. However, Gastelum's weight cut is a concern; if he makes weight, he should win by knockout. The line is steep but justified.

Gastelum wins by knockout
"I think we'll see Gastam eventually land those big shots. ... I think he wins by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Paul picks Gastelum, trusting his chin and durability. He thinks Luque has slowed down and taken too much damage, while Gastelum can still take a punch and outwork him.

"I still trust Kelvin Gastelum. It's like if they get into a firefight to be able to take that punch... Kelvin's one of the guys that are uh in my parlay arsenal this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Vicente Luque. He believes Luque's best days are behind him and that Gastelum is hard to finish, with good submission defense against Luque's D'Arce choke. He thinks Gastelum's springy step, one-two down the pipe, and low kick will cause visible damage, predicting a 29-28 decision win.

"I'm going to go with Kelvin over Vicente Luque."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum, agreeing that Luque at middleweight doesn't track. He notes that Gastelum's game is a middleweight game and that Luque has lost speed and reaction time. He expects Gastelum to win by being the more natural middleweight and having the power advantage in the pocket.

"I'm not going to pick Vicente Luque up at middle weight."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charles Radtke

Charles Radtke W

12-5
Decision R3 5:00
Fight 12 VS Welterweight Completed

Charles Radtke

Moneyline
BetRivers -167
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
FanDuel +195

Francisco Prado

KO/TKO
Polymarket +260
Submission
BetRivers +2400
Decision
Polymarket +850
Fighter Stats

Charles Radtke

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Francisco Prado

Age23
Height5' 10"
Reach69.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Charles Radtke

2.8SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.63SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.32TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Francisco Prado

4.09SLpM
43.0%Str. Acc.
4.95SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.94TD Avg
19.0%TD Acc.
50.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charlie Radtke, citing his athletic grappling, powerful striking, and controlling ground game. He notes Radtke's tendency to slow down and be hittable but believes he has more tools than Prado. He expects a decision win, acknowledging Prado's toughness and durability despite his losing streak.

"Charlie has more tools in the bag if he can keep his pace, if he can keep his cardio. I think he can win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady is not high on Prado, noting he is undersized for welterweight and has only one UFC win. He thinks Radtke will be the bigger, stronger, more physical fighter with wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He expects Radtke to take down Prado and win by decision, as Prado is durable and has never been finished.

decision
"Give me Radtke and Radtke by decision in the first fight of the night."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Cody also picks Prado, noting Radtke's low output and Prado's improved wrestling. He thinks Prado can scramble back to his feet and land damaging shots.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke based on his wrestling advantage and range tools. He notes that Prado's wrestling is terrible and Radtke can outwrestle him. He acknowledges Radtke's lack of durability but trusts his ability to control the fight with takedowns.

"I have to pick Radke to win it. Like by having any range tools by having, yeah, even just a check, a left hook that he likes to throw."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Radtke, believing he will dominate. He notes that Radtke is a full-sized welterweight with good cardio and fight IQ, while Prado is moving up and has not shown high-level skills. He thinks Radtke will win clear rounds, possibly by decision.

"I like Radke a lot here. And I think it's just going to be domination."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Daniel thinks Radtke has plateaued and is a finished product, while Prado is young, durable, and improving. He expects Prado to be too tough and enthusiastic.

"I'm going to go Francisco Prada to get back on track."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

James picks Radtke based on his grappling advantage, though he notes Radtke's weight cut issues. He expects a decision win via control.

"I'll pick Charles Raky via decision as of now."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke's grappling and pressure should be enough to outwork Prado. Prado has a better gas tank and takedown defense than Radtke's last opponent, but Radtke's clinch and BJJ are strong. Prado's striking is his best path, but he often grapples unnecessarily. Radtke can grind out a decision, though the line is a bit steep for confidence.

Radtke wins by decision
"I still think he has a good enough shot to keeping this fight on his terms and that should lead to him grinding this fight out and winning it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Prado

Paul picks Prado as an underdog, believing his power and durability can overcome Radtke's low-volume wrestling. He thinks Prado can land a big shot or win a decision.

"I'm going to take me some action there... Prao money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

The MMA Guru picks Charles Radtke over Francisco Prado. He notes that Prado has lost four in a row and is a bit basic with a Mike Tyson style that hasn't worked at welterweight. Radtke has KO power and looked good against Brenneman, with a wrestling advantage and improved stand-up training with Belal Muhammad. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Radtke.

"I'm going to pick him to win this one. I am."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing that his wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Prado is durable but walks blindly into people, making him easy to take down. He acknowledges Radtke's chin issues but trusts his wrestling to secure the win.

"I'll take Radky for the wrestling advantage."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.