UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer

Angelo picks Israel Adesanya despite acknowledging his age and chin issues. He believes Adesanya's technical striking and range management can keep him safe until Joe Pyfer's cardio fades. He notes that Adesanya looked good in recent losses before getting finished, and that Pyfer's wrestling is not at the level of Dricus du Plessis. However, he says he would not be surprised if Pyfer knocks him out.

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges Adesanya is on a three-fight skid and may be declining, but notes his losses have come against top competition. He thinks Adesanya's elite takedown defense and striking volume will be key, especially with the big cage. He believes if Adesanya's chin holds up, he will outpoint Pyfer over five rounds. He also notes Pyfer's path is via knockout or wrestling, but doubts Pyfer can maintain wrestling for 25 minutes.

Cody acknowledges Adesanya's recent losses and durability concerns but believes Pyfer's cardio issues and reliance on early power will allow Izzy to take over in later rounds. He notes Pyfer's limited wrestling and tendency to gas, making Adesanya the pick despite the risk.

Connor acknowledges that Pyfer is the more rational pick given Adesanya's recent decline and tendency to get hurt, but he stubbornly picks Adesanya because he doesn't think Pyfer is good enough. He notes that Adesanya can fence Pyfer off and make him uncomfortable, but can never fully neutralize the danger. He compares his pick to a classic 'vibes' pick, admitting it's a prove-it question.

Daniel believes Izzy is on the decline, having lost four of his last five and been finished in three. He thinks Pyfer's power and grappling, combined with Izzy's diminished reflexes and chin, will lead to an upset. He picks Pyfer to finish Adesanya.

The host is torn on this fight. Adesanya is a bad stylistic matchup for Pyfer on paper (better striker, good takedown defense), but Adesanya has shown signs of decline (KO loss to Imavov, submission loss to Du Plessis). The host cannot confidently pick either side and passes pre-fight, preferring to live bet the fight.

Lucrative James picks Israel Adesanya to win, believing Adesanya hasn't fallen as far as some think and that his experience and takedown defense will be key. He thinks Joe Pyfer will need a finish to win, but Adesanya's striking and durability make that unlikely. He also notes that Pyfer may fade in later rounds, giving Adesanya an edge.

The host is torn but leans towards Pyfer, citing Adesanya's recent decline in reflexes and durability. He thinks Pyfer's power and wrestling could lead to a finish, possibly by submission similar to Dricus du Plessis. However, he admits low confidence and may not bet it, noting Adesanya could also win by picking Pyfer apart from distance.

Paul agrees with Cody, stating they've never been Pyfer guys. He thinks Adesanya's takedown defense is sufficient and that Pyfer hasn't shown elite wrestling. He's comfortable with the moneyline at -150.

The MMA Guru picks Israel Adesanya, despite acknowledging Joe Pyfer's power and grappling. He believes Adesanya's striking levels are above Pyfer's, citing his ability to avoid Pereira's left hook and his performance against Imavov. He expects Adesanya to use low kicks to neutralize Pyfer's right hand and eventually find a finish. He predicts a third-round TKO.

Zane sees the trajectories of the two careers heading in opposite directions, with Adesanya getting hurt frequently and Pyfer being extremely dangerous. He believes Adesanya cannot neutralize Pyfer's danger the way Abus Magomedov did, because Adesanya won't wrestle. He thinks Pyfer's lack of sophistication may not matter if he catches Adesanya early.

Angelo picks Maycee Barber, believing she has improved more than Alexa Grasso and that Grasso has lost confidence. He thinks Barber's wrestling and pressure will be key, but notes the odds are a touch wide given their history. He advises waiting for weigh-ins before betting due to Barber's weight cut issues.

Big Brady picks Maycee Barber to win by decision. He notes that Barber has improved significantly since their first fight, now on a seven-fight winning streak. He expects the fight to be close on the feet but believes Barber's strength and physicality will be the difference, as she can push Grasso against the cage and take her down. He cautions that Barber must avoid getting reversed and submitted, as happened in the first fight, but if she stays on top and is smart, she should win.

Cody thinks the fight is close to 50-50 and sees value on Grasso as the underdog. He notes Grasso's regression but believes Barber's takedown defense is poor and Grasso can win the rematch. He's hesitant but picks Grasso due to the plus money.

Connor notes that Barber has tightened up her striking and evolved a ton as a clinch fighter, landing nasty short shots, elbows, knees, and hockey punches. He believes Barber can force the clinch again and has only gotten better at winning that kind of fight, while Grasso has stagnated and become aimless. He points out that Grasso's recent performances show no plan or goal.

Daniel notes Barber is on a career-best win streak and physically matured, while Grasso has declined since her title win. He expects Barber to bully Grasso and avenge her earlier loss, securing a title shot.

The host initially liked Barber at -149 but missed the odds as they steamed to -153. He still leans Barber due to her power, improved scrambling, and ability to hold her own on the feet. Grasso is more technical but lacks power and is weak off her back. However, the host passes because the current odds (-153) reflect fair value and he cannot give Barber more than a 65% chance.

The host leans towards Grasso as the slicker striker, expecting her to out-strike Barber and win a close decision. He acknowledges Barber's improvements in grappling and clinch but thinks Grasso's technical striking and control will be enough. He notes the odds are wide due to recent momentum and sees value in the underdog.

Paul doesn't make a firm pick, calling it a dog or pass situation. He acknowledges the value on Grasso but doesn't commit to a side.

The MMA Guru picks Maycee Barber, citing her physical density and toughness. He believes Barber's pressure and improved grappling will overcome Alexa Grasso, who he thinks has stagnated. He notes Grasso's recent losses and predictable striking. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28, and suggests the UFC may favor Barber as a fresh contender.

Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Barber has gotten better at making her fight happen and forcing it on the opponent. He notes that Grasso is aimless and will have whatever fight the opponent wants to dictate. He also mentions that Barber is tough to finish and has only lost by decision, one of which was to Grasso in a close fight where Barber won the third round.

Big Brady picks Michael Chiesa to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, noting Niko Price's recent brutal knockout losses and decline. He believes Price has taken too much damage and Chiesa's grappling will be overwhelming. He expects Chiesa to take Price down and submit him easily, comparing it to a hot knife through butter.

Cody believes Chiesa will win via submission, citing Price's poor grappling and Chiesa's rear-naked choke. He sees this as a perfect retirement fight for Chiesa in front of his home crowd.

Connor states that at any point in their careers, Michael Chiesa would have beaten Niko Price. He notes that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training, has been brutally finished in his last two fights, and is slower than ever. Chiesa has a great chin, has never been knocked out, and can control the fight and take it to a realm where Price is not dangerous.

Daniel sees Chiesa as a level above Price historically, and expects him to use his physicality to secure a submission win in his retirement fight. He notes Price's decline and Chiesa's ability to drop opponents.

The host is extremely confident Chiesa will win, calling it a great stylistic matchup. Price has poor takedown defense and ground game, while Chiesa is a high-level grappler. Even with Chiesa's cardio issues, he should easily take Price down and submit him. However, the host does not bet the moneyline due to the steep price (-834) and instead prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop.

The host sees this as a favorable matchup for Chiesa, who should be able to take Price down and submit him. He notes Price's recent durability issues and Chiesa's grappling prowess. He expects a submission win, likely by rear-naked choke, and doesn't mind parlaying Chiesa at the heavy odds.

Paul agrees, noting Chiesa's wrestling advantage and Price's recent knockout loss. He expects Chiesa to win easily, likely by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, citing his grappling and size advantage. He believes Chiesa's experience and strength will allow him to control the fight, though he notes Chiesa's chin is suspect. He thinks Nico Price's best days are behind him and that Price has been taking damage recently. He even suggests a possible Chiesa KO on the feet.

Zane agrees that Chiesa is a clear favorite, noting that Price is a booty call fighter who hasn't been training and has been brutally finished recently. He mentions that Chiesa's retirement helped him recollect himself, and he's been looking composed and collected. He also notes that Price's power is less present and his wild grappling won't serve him here.

Angelo picks Lando Vannata (Lerryan Douglas) as the more skilled fighter, cleaner and faster, and less hittable than Julian Erosa. He thinks Erosa's pressure could be a factor but believes Vannata's technique will prevail. He notes the odds are appropriate.

Big Brady picks Lerryan Douglas to win by second-round knockout. He praises Douglas's power, calling him one of the hardest hitters in the featherweight division. He criticizes Julian Erosa's chin, noting he has been knocked out seven times and has poor striking defense. He expects a violent fight and believes Douglas will connect and knock Erosa out brutally.

Cody favors Douglas to land a knockout due to Erosa's questionable chin and low hands. He acknowledges Erosa's path to victory via submission but thinks Douglas's power will prevail.

Connor picks Douglas, expecting a flattening. He notes that Erosa is losing a step and looks slow and cumbersome, as seen in the Elkins and Costa fights. Douglas is a fast power puncher who sells out, and if he catches Erosa early, he can finish him. However, he acknowledges that if Erosa survives the first round, he tends to win.

Daniel expects Douglas to knock out Erosa, citing Erosa's weak chin and Douglas's left hook power. He warns that if Douglas doesn't finish early, Erosa could make it competitive, but ultimately picks Douglas by KO.

The host sees value on Erosa as an underdog, believing the odds are too wide. Erosa is tough, has great cardio, and applies relentless pressure, which could trouble debutant Douglas. However, Erosa's recent poor fight IQ (losing to a one-legged opponent) gives pause. The host prefers the fight spread (+3.5) on Erosa rather than the moneyline, as he expects a competitive fight.

The host thinks Douglas will find a knockout due to his power and Erosa's defensive flaws, but he is cautious because Erosa's chin held up in his last fight. He expects Douglas to expose Erosa's awkward striking exits but acknowledges the risk if Erosa's durability holds. He suggests the knockout prop might be the play.

Paul is torn, calling it dog or pass. He considers Erosa's value but doesn't commit, suggesting live betting Erosa after the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Lerryan Douglas, calling him a 'clobberer' who throws heat-seeking punches. He believes Douglas's power and fast starts will be too much for Julian Erosa, whose chin is questionable. He notes Douglas's training at Bloodline MMA with Cub Swanson and Danny Silva as a positive. He predicts a KO in the first round.

Zane picks Erosa just for fun, calling it a coin flip. He notes that Douglas is awful moving backward and collapses inward, while Erosa is capable of pushing forward and has a vicious clinch game. He points out that Erosa has survived early trouble before and that Douglas's losses come from guys who gave him what he asked for and he couldn't handle it.

Angelo picks Yorgan De Castro (Yousri Belgaroui) after previously making the mistake of picking a powerful wrestler against him. He trusts De Castro's range management and striking, and notes that Mansour has looked vulnerable in past fights. He believes De Castro can win if his takedown defense holds up.

Big Brady picks Yousri Belgaroui to win by decision. He criticizes Mansur Abdul-Malik's lack of urgency and poor striking defense, noting he gets out-landed at distance by lesser opponents. He believes Belgaroui has a good chin and will outwork Malik over 15 minutes. He also mentions the over 1.5 rounds prop because Malik often does nothing early.

Cody picks Belgaroui, citing his improvement, reach advantage, and superior kickboxing. He doubts Abdul-Malik's wrestling will be effective and believes Belgaroui can outpoint him.

Connor picks Belgaroui, impressed by his debut where he used an active jab to control Bekelev. He notes that Belgaroui's kickboxing technique is consistent and can fence off opponents, while Abdul-Malik is low output and sporadic, looking for a moment. However, he acknowledges Abdul-Malik's special athleticism and reach, and that Belgaroui still takes shots and gives openings under pressure.

Daniel believes Abdul-Malik is a freak athlete with one-shot KO power and D1 wrestling. He thinks Belgaroui will engage, giving Abdul-Malik openings to land big shots and regain his hype.

The host gives Abdul-Malik a 65-70% chance to win, citing his explosive power and Belgaroui's defensive vulnerabilities. Belgaroui is a technical counter striker but is hittable and has a 'giraffe neck' that makes him susceptible to knockouts. Abdul-Malik's speed and power should allow him to land big shots, and he may also have success with wrestling. The host is not super confident but sees value at -134.

The host believes Belgaroui's technical striking and improved takedown defense will be key. He expects Belgaroui to use his reach and jab to pick apart Abdul-Malik, who may struggle with cardio if he can't dictate the pace. He notes the line movement towards Belgaroui and sees him winning by decision.

Paul leans Abdul-Malik, thinking his wrestling and physicality will be the difference. He's hesitant due to Abdul-Malik's inconsistent wrestling usage.

The MMA Guru picks Yousri Belgaroui, expressing surprise that he is an underdog. He believes Belgaroui's kickboxing pedigree and recent performance against Boev show he is levels above Abdul-Malik's previous competition. He notes Abdul-Malik's wins are over lower-tier opponents and that Belgaroui's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He predicts a TKO in the second or third round.

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Belgaroui's active jab and consistent technique will be a problem for Abdul-Malik, whose MMA Masters game is reactive and not built to handle a maintenance strategy. He also mentions that Belgaroui handled a stiff test of defensive wrestling against Bekelev. However, he notes that Abdul-Malik is a special athlete with insane arm length and real kickboxing skills.

Angelo picks Terrance McKinney despite acknowledging his cardio and chin issues. He believes McKinney is the better striker, wrestler, and more powerful, and hopes he puts on a show at home. He admits he went against his own rule of not betting on McKinney and placed a half-unit bet at -141.

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney to win by first-round knockout. He expects a car crash of a fight, noting both fighters lack durability and have been finished often. He believes McKinney's early pressure and power will be too much for Kyle Nelson, who has been finished in four losses. He thinks McKinney will knock him out in the first few minutes.

Cody picks Nelson, believing McKinney's early explosiveness will fade and Nelson's durability and cardio will take over. He also mentions inside information from Nelson's training partner.

Connor picks Nelson, noting that McKinney is only dangerous in the first round and concedes when he can't get an immediate finish. He points out that McKinney has only won one fight outside the first three minutes in his entire career. Nelson is susceptible early but if he survives, McKinney gives up. Connor says you can't pick a competent fighter to lose to McKinney.

Daniel acknowledges McKinney's first-round finishing ability but is wary of his tendency to fade if he doesn't get the early KO. He picks McKinney but suggests live betting Nelson if the fight goes past two minutes.

The host sees this as a coin flip: McKinney is explosive and dangerous early but has terrible cardio and has never been to a decision; Nelson is slow and hittable but has power and can survive the first round. The implied probabilities (65-40) offer no margin on either side, so the host passes entirely.

The host expects McKinney's explosive power and early aggression to overwhelm Nelson, leading to a first-round knockout. He notes McKinney's tendency to finish early and that all his UFC fights have ended under 1.5 rounds. He is less confident in betting McKinney straight due to his style's volatility but likes the under 1.5 rounds prop.

Paul agrees, noting McKinney's history of gassing and Nelson's ability to survive early storms. He expects Nelson to win after the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Nelson using reverse psychology, as he often picks McKinney to win by first-round TKO but McKinney fumbles. He believes McKinney will wobble Nelson early but then fade, allowing Nelson to take over in the second and third rounds with elbows and pressure. He notes McKinney's inconsistency.

Zane agrees, stating that McKinney's pattern is clear: he comes in keyed up and if he doesn't finish early, he gives up. He compares McKinney to the ID of fighters like McGregor and Pyfer. Nelson is a competent fighter who can survive the early storm. Zane notes that Nelson could lose if he gets caught early, but otherwise McKinney has no answer.

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes despite acknowledging the danger of Terrance McKinney's chaotic pressure and wrestling. He notes that Bahamondes is a very good striker with length and volume, but his takedown offense is nonexistent and he can be outwrestled. Angelo believes Bahamondes' higher level of competition and striking advantage should carry him, but he is hesitant because McKinney could win by being chaotic and getting takedowns.

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via a 'club and sub' approach. He notes Musayev's poor grappling, having been submitted five times, but is concerned that Bahamondes has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Bahamondes will hurt Musayev on the feet and then submit him. He likes Bahamondes' size, volume, and sneaky power, and believes he is improving his wrestling.

Cody thinks the line is too wide and Musayev has the grappling to exploit Bahamondes' takedown defense. He makes a small play on Musayev at plus money.

Connor picks Bahamondes but is hesitant, citing uncertainty about Bahamondes' current level due to recent wins over lower-level competition. He thinks Bahamondes has a danger edge with his size and will likely pressure Musayev, but he's not fully confident.

Daniel thinks Bahamondes will overcome early adversity from Musayev's explosive striking, then take over in later rounds due to his youth, reach, and Musayev being past his prime. He expects a decision or late finish.

The host thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Bahamondes (-322) and that Musayev could make it competitive, but he passes because there is not enough recent footage on Musayev to confidently bet him. Bahamondes has weaknesses (poor striking defense, takedown susceptibility) but Musayev is an unknown quantity with only one recent fight. The host reluctantly passes on both sides.

The host believes Bahamondes' striking and counter-striking will be too much for Musayev, who is reckless. He expects Bahamondes to pick Musayev apart and eventually land a big shot for a finish. He notes the under 2.5 rounds is intriguing due to Musayev's recklessness and Bahamondes' finishing ability.

Paul favors Bahamondes, citing his height, volume, and cardio. He believes Musayev's low volume and lack of wrestling will be issues.

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, noting his crafty striking and ground game. He believes Bahamondes is a better version of Daniel Zellhuber and will outlast Musayev's explosive first round. He predicts Bahamondes will finish Musayev by TKO in the second or third round, drawing parallels to his performance against Manuel Torres.

Zane picks Bahamondes because he trusts Bahamondes can fight at a pace when needed, and Musayev hasn't shown that pace. He notes that Bahamondes' losses came against wrestlers, which Musayev is not. He also mentions that Musayev's style of fighting on the back foot may not work in the UFC.

Angelo picks Chase Hooper but is not confident, noting that Hooper relies on experience and BJJ, and that he hasn't beaten anyone under 40 in years. He thinks Lance Gibson could win if he wrestles and stays safe. Angelo criticizes the odds, saying Hooper should not be a 3-to-1 favorite.

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges Hooper's striking deficiencies and recent knockout losses, but believes Hooper's ground game is elite. He notes Hooper has improved his wrestling, taking down Jim Miller eight times and Clay Guida three times. He thinks once Hooper gets the fight to the ground, he will dominate with ground and pound and submissions.

Cody believes Hooper's grappling and improving striking will be too much for Gibson, who he views as a Bellator-level fighter. He expects Hooper to win via submission or decision.

Connor picks Hooper as well, agreeing that Hooper's grappling is dynamite and he is a violent grappler. He thinks Gibson's mentality is not suited for fighting and that Hooper will take advantage.

Daniel believes Hooper's experience and grappling will be too much for Gibson, who he views as not UFC caliber. He expects Hooper to submit Gibson, noting Gibson lacks knockout power to threaten Hooper.

The host believes Hooper is very likely to win due to his improved wrestling and ground game, but the odds (-318) are too steep to bet. Gibson is a volume striker without knockout power, so Hooper should eventually get a takedown and finish. However, there is not enough known about Gibson to bet the underdog, making this an easy pass.

The host likes Hooper's submission game but is wary of the minus 240 line, as he thinks Hooper may struggle to get the fight to the ground against Gibson's athleticism. He suggests Hooper needs to be reckless with striking to create openings for grappling. He predicts Hooper will eventually find a submission but acknowledges the risk.

Paul agrees, noting Hooper's length and grappling advantage. He's not impressed by Gibson's UFC debut and expects Hooper to handle him.

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, citing his recent grappling improvements and wins over Jim Miller and Jordan Leavitt. He believes Hooper's grappling will be too much for Lance Gibson Jr., who he considers a name merchant. He expects Hooper to survive early danger and eventually submit or outgrapple Gibson for a decision.

Zane picks Hooper because Hooper knows how to be aggressive and go after submissions, while Gibson seems to avoid fighting. He notes that Gibson's wins are against cans and he shuts down when faced with skill parity.

Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.

Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.

Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.

Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.

Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.

The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.

Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.

Angelo leans towards Gabriella Fernandes, citing her power and physicality, and Casey O'Neill's long layoff which might make her timid. He acknowledges Casey's volume and wrestling but thinks Gabriella's power could be the difference. He says it's not a hill he's willing to die on.

Big Brady leans toward Gabriella Fernandes to win by decision. He likes Casey O'Neill's volume and submission game but is concerned about her long layoff due to injuries and her durability. He thinks Fernandes is the better striker and more physical, and if O'Neill can't get the fight to the ground, Fernandes will win. He notes Fernandes' poor performance against Stoliarenko but believes she is better than that.

Cody believes O'Neill's grappling and volume will overwhelm Fernandes, who has poor takedown defense. He sees O'Neill as the better prospect and expects her to win.

Connor also picks O'Neill, trusting her to play her game. He notes that Fernandes is inconsistent and can be wrapped up by aggressive fighters. He acknowledges that O'Neill's striking is crude but her pace is reliable.

Daniel leans towards Fernandes due to her improved takedown defense, physicality, and activity, while O'Neill has had multiple layoffs. He sees it as close but favors Fernandes.

The host expects O'Neill to learn from past losses and crash the pocket more effectively, mixing in grappling at opportune moments. He thinks O'Neill's top control will be key, leading to either a submission or a decision win. He notes O'Neill's layoff and training camp changes but believes she can dictate the pace and grind out a win.

Paul picks Fernandes, citing her knockout power and O'Neill's inactivity. He has low conviction but thinks Fernandes can land a big shot.

The MMA Guru picks Gabriella Fernandes as a slight underdog, citing her momentum and physicality. He believes Fernandes has more power and damage advantage, while Casey O'Neill lacks power and relies on volume. He notes O'Neill's recent inactivity and cosmetic surgeries as potential distractions. He predicts Fernandes wins by decision.

Zane picks O'Neill because of her high output and ability to swarm, creating ugly clinches and dominant positions. He notes that Fernandes has been beaten by aggressive fighters who wrap her up, and O'Neill fits that mold. He also mentions that O'Neill's striking is ineffective but her pace wins rounds.

Angelo picks Navajo Stirling despite previously being a vocal hater. He acknowledges Stirling's kickboxing skills, mobility, and takedown defense, and believes he is the better striker. He expects Stirling to avoid takedowns and win a straightforward decision, though he is not confident in a finish.

Big Brady picks Navajo Stirling to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Bruno Lopes is very hittable and has a poor chin, having been knocked out by Heber and Dustin Jacoby. Stirling is a good kickboxer with elite volume, landing over six significant strikes per minute. Brady believes Stirling will touch Lopes up and finally get his first UFC knockout.

Cody sees Stirling as a rising prospect with improving skills, while Lopes has been knocked out recently. He expects Stirling to win, possibly by KO.

Connor also picks Stirling, agreeing that Lopes is a front runner and that Stirling's wrestling and size will be enough. He notes that Stirling is still raw but has the tools to win.

Daniel expects Stirling to use his speed and length to outpoint Lopes, though he doubts a knockout. He notes Lopes's chin issues and confidence questions after a KO loss.

The host sees massive value on Lopes as a +471 underdog, giving him a 35-40% chance to win. He believes Lopes' relentless grappling and cardio can wear down Sterling, who has shown vulnerability to wrestling and fades in later rounds. Footage shows Sterling getting taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, while Lopes commits fully to takedowns and has excellent chain wrestling. The host acknowledges Lopes is likely to lose but insists the odds are far too wide.

The host is high on Stirling's well-rounded game, noting his kickboxing background and improving grappling. He believes Stirling's defensive grappling will force Lopes to strike, where Stirling will pick him apart and eventually land a knockout. He references Lopes' recent knockout loss to Dustin Jacoby as evidence that Stirling can replicate that success.

Paul agrees, noting Stirling's development and Lopes' chin issues. He thinks Stirling will get the job done.

The MMA Guru picks Navajo Stirling, noting his size, reach, and undefeated record. He believes Stirling's striking combinations and takedown defense will be key. He mentions that Bruno Lopes has some grappling ability but thinks Stirling's athleticism and system will keep the fight standing. He predicts a finish in the second or third round by TKO.

Zane picks Stirling because Lopes is a front runner who gets run over when not in front, and Stirling has shown good defensive wrestling and ability to get up. He notes that Stirling is still developing but this is a good step-back fight.

Angelo picks Ricky Simon because he believes Simon's relentless pressure and wrestling will negate Yanez's technical striking. He notes that Simon's takedown defense was exposed against Honey Balcelos, but Balcelos is a high-level wrestler, while Yanez has no offensive takedowns. Angelo also mentions the hometown advantage and the possibility of a close decision, but expects Simon's wrestling to be effective enough to secure the win.

Big Brady picks Ricky Simón to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He notes that Simón has been on a three-fight losing streak and his cardio and wrestling have declined. However, he believes Simón's wrestling upside is key, as Adrian Yañez has not faced a wrestler in the UFC. Simón is the hometown fighter, and Brady thinks he can mix in takedowns, cage push, and win minutes in the clinch to secure a decision.

Cody picks Yanez, believing his striking and takedown defense will be enough to win rounds. He's concerned about Simon's hometown advantage but thinks Yanez lands the more significant shots.

Connor picks Yañez, thinking that Simón doesn't want to win just by holding someone down and will engage in the pocket, where Yañez can catch him. He notes that Simón is square and takes his eyes off the target, and Yañez has power.

Daniel believes Yanez's boxing and takedown defense will be too much for Simon, who he thinks is past his best. He cites sources saying Yanez is sharp again and likes the underdog value.

The host picks Simón despite his poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of wrestle. He argues that Simón's wrestling is his path to victory, and Yanez's takedown defense is inflated because he has only faced strikers. Footage from Yanez's fight against Daniel Marcos shows he can be taken down and held down easily. However, the host warns that Simón may not commit to grappling, making this a risky bet.

The host sees Yañez as the better striker with good takedown defense and getups, allowing him to keep the fight standing. He believes Yañez's striking edge and reach advantage will allow him to piece up Simón, and he even suggests Yañez might score a knockout. He notes Simón's reliance on power and wrestling, but thinks Yañez can avoid the big shots and find a finish.

Paul leans Simon, citing his wrestling and hometown crowd. He thinks Simon's control time could sway judges, especially with the Seattle crowd.

The MMA Guru picks Ricky Simón, noting his improved demeanor and grappling ability. He believes Simón is well-rounded enough to grapple his way to a decision victory. He criticizes Adrian Yañez's recent performances, pointing out losses to Rob Font and Daniel Marcos, and suggests Yañez struggles against capable opponents. He expects Simón to mix in grappling and land good shots on the feet.

Zane picks Simón for the wrestling, noting that Simón has shown more interest in keeping people down recently. He is hesitant because Yañez has good defensive wrestling and is a higher output fighter, but he thinks Simón's wrestling will be the difference in a close fight.

Angelo is extremely confident in Alexia Thainara, calling her the biggest favorite on the card. He describes her as a strong, forward-pressure fighter with heavy hands and grappling ability, who bullied Loma Lookboonmee. He contrasts Bruna Brasil's recent timid performances and poor takedown defense, predicting Alexia will run through her.

Cody picks Thainara, citing her physicality, improved wrestling, and cardio. He acknowledges the previous loss but believes Thainara has improved significantly since then.

Connor also picks Thainara, agreeing that she has improved and that Brasil has not. He notes that Thainara's recent performances show good give and take on the ground.

Daniel expects Thainara to dominate Brasil, who he criticizes for being timid and running away. He believes Thainara's grappling and striking will overwhelm Brasil, leading to a clear win.

Thainara is a massive favorite at -768, and the host believes she should win easily due to her aggression, high pace, and wrestling. He notes that Bruna Brasil is more technical but passive and tentative, often failing to impose herself. Thainara's work rate and grappling in the clinch should overwhelm Brasil, and a finish is possible but not necessary for the win.

The host believes Thainara has made significant improvements since her first fight with Brasil, evidenced by her 11-fight winning streak. He notes her aggression in striking and grappling, ability to establish top position, and youth at 28. He expects her to dominate with forward pressure and takedowns, though he is less confident in a finish, predicting a decision win. He mentions she is worthy of being a parlay piece despite the chalky price.

Paul agrees, noting Thainara's trajectory and Brasil's inconsistency. He thinks Thainara's strength and wrestling will be too much.

The MMA Guru picks Alexia Thainara, citing her recent win over Luma Lookboonmee and her physical strength. He believes Thainara is too muscular and strong in grappling exchanges for Bruna Brasil, who is coming off a loss. He notes that Thainara's takedown ability and pressure will be key, and that Brasil can be tricky on the back foot but will likely get taken down.

Zane picks Thainara confidently, noting that she has improved since their first fight and looks controlled in recent performances. He mentions that she worked top position methodically against McCann and defended an armbar smoothly. He assumes she won't make the same mistake of walking into a guillotine again.