UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva

Angelo is confident in Holly Holm, calling her the more technical striker with better takedown defense and offense. He notes Silva's losses have come via wrestling, and Holly can do the same. He thinks Holly can hold Silva against the cage, get takedowns, and avoid submissions. He placed a one-unit moneyline bet at minus 160. He disagrees with a DM suggesting Silva should be the favorite, stating Holly has earned the right to be favored.

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with hesitation, as he sees two clear outcomes: Holm dominating on the feet or Bueno Silva catching an armbar. He notes Holm is 41 but still looks good, and if she fights smart and keeps it standing, she should cruise. However, he worries Holm might take Bueno Silva down and get submitted. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Cody picks Holly Holm, comparing her to a Rolex watch that keeps going. He highlights her high ring IQ, ability to adapt, and wrestling improvements. He notes Silva's takedown defense issues and that Holm can mix in takedowns. He expects Holm to Matador from the outside, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, possibly winning championship rounds.

James is leaning towards Mayra Bueno Silva as an underdog. He notes that Holly Holm is 41 years old and may be declining, while Bueno Silva has strong submission skills and finishing ability. He mentions that many respected bettors are on Holm, but he is skeptical of her grappling and thinks Bueno Silva could submit her. He plans to watch more tape but is leaning towards the dog side.

The host believes Holm's veteran savvy and clinch-heavy approach will keep her safe from Bueno Silva's submissions. He expects Holm to mix striking, clinch, and grappling to cruise to a decision win. He notes Bueno Silva's lack of urgency and low volume as weaknesses.

Paul picks Holly Holm, citing her technical striking, experience, and ability to win at range. He expects a slow, tepid fight with Holm winning a decision, similar to the Vieira fight. He notes the line moved from -145 to -180, so he missed his betting window. He also mentions the PrizePicks over 90.5 significant strikes is tight and won't play it.

The MMA Guru picks Holly Holm over Mayra Bueno Silva, noting Holm's activity, athleticism, and ability to control fights against the cage. He questions Silva's cardio for a five-round fight and doubts her submission threat, believing Holm can dictate where the fight takes place. He predicts Holm wins by decision or late stoppage.

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.

Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.

Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.

The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.

Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.

The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.

Angelo picks Albert Duraev, liking his wrestling pace and takedowns. He notes Park is well-rounded with good takedown defense but is not dangerous enough to threaten Duraev. He is surprised Duraev is a plus-money underdog and plans to use the line movement tracker to bet him at the best price. He thinks Duraev can grind out a decision.

Big Brady picks Park Jun-yong, calling him underrated. He notes Park has good durability, cardio, and well-rounded skills, while Duraev has four knockout losses and slows down in fights. He expects a close decision where Park's volume and cardio edge him ahead, possibly mixing in takedowns late. He thinks -150 is about right.

Cody leans toward Park, citing Duraev's red flags: low takedown success rate (1/9 vs Coppola, 2/9 vs Buckley), gas tank issues, and being a low-output striker. He thinks Park's volume and durability will win striking exchanges, but acknowledges Duraev could win via takedowns or cage control. He expects a close, greasy decision and doesn't love the -150 price.

The host expects Park's pressure and cardio to wear down Duraev as the fight goes on. He thinks Duraev will have early wrestling success but fade, allowing Park to land damaging strikes and potentially get a late finish or decision. He notes the line is a bit steep but still sees value.

Paul leans toward Park, noting Park's recent finishes via rear-naked chokes against grapplers, but thinks that path is off the table here. He expects Park to keep it on the feet and use his chin, while Duraev hasn't shown power. He thinks it goes the full 15 minutes and leans Park at -150, but acknowledges judging could swing either way.

The MMA Guru picks Albert Duraev over Park Jun-yong, citing Duraev's win over Roman Kopylov, which has aged well, and his finishing potential. He criticizes Park's split decision over Eric Anders and notes his wins came against opponents with clear weaknesses. He believes Duraev is more dangerous in multiple areas and predicts a finish.

Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler for the upset, calling her the far more dangerous fighter. He notes Norma has a clear advantage in experience and fight IQ, but she got rocked by Carol Rosa, and Chelsea can do the same. He recommends betting on Chelsea wins inside the distance with decision no action, meaning if it goes to decision he gets a refund. He believes Norma is not dangerous and Chelsea is tough, so if anyone is finished, it's Norma.

Big Brady picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her aggression and dog mentality. He admits Dumont is probably the better fighter but thinks Chandler's aggressiveness will go a long way. He expects a close decision where Chandler does a little more across 15 minutes, possibly landing harder shots or getting takedowns. He calls the fight 'greasy' and says he's not betting on it.

Cody leans toward Chandler as a value play at plus money, noting Dumont's low volume and Chandler's aggressive style. He thinks Chandler lands the better shots and that the judges may favor damage and output over cage control. He acknowledges it's a 50/50 fight and prefers the plus money. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds, thinking Chandler could overwhelm Dumont early.

The host believes Dumont is the better striker and will put together solid combinations to damage Chandler. He thinks Chandler's lack of experience and raw game will be exposed, and Dumont may even get a TKO finish due to the skill gap on the feet.

Paul leans toward Chandler as an underdog, citing her bruiser style and high pace in her debut. He thinks her forward pressure and volume could overwhelm Dumont, who has low output. He notes the price is attractive at +120 and expects a close fight. He also considers the under 2.5 rounds at +180, thinking Chandler might finish early.

The MMA Guru picks Norma Dumont over Chelsea Chandler, emphasizing Dumont's proven track record against higher-level competition, including wins over Karol Rosa and a close fight with Irene Aldana. He dismisses Chandler's win over Julija Stoliarenko and notes her losses to Alexis Davis and Julia Avila. He predicts Dumont wins.

Angelo gives a slight lean to Terrance McKinney, calling it a 50.5 to 49.5 pick in his favor. He thinks McKinney is the better fighter overall, with solid striking and wrestling credentials, but his chin is questionable. He is swayed by a conversation with McKinney's coach about improved training partners. However, he hesitates because McKinney was recently knocked out and Sadykhov carries power late. He would only bet if the line moves to make McKinney a bigger underdog.

Big Brady picks Terrance McKinney, expecting him to revert to his aggressive style and finish Sadykhov early. He notes Sadykhov is a slow starter who has been hurt early in fights, which plays into McKinney's strengths. However, he warns that if McKinney doesn't finish in the first few minutes, his poor cardio will be a problem. He calls it a great live betting spot if Sadykhov survives the first round.

Cody picks McKinney at plus money, citing his explosiveness, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks McKinney will go back to his aggressive style after pacing himself poorly against Bomfim. He notes Sadykhov's takedown defense issues and that McKinney has speed and power advantages. He acknowledges McKinney's cardio is a concern but thinks he can finish early.

The host highlights McKinney's 17 of 18 fights finishing under 1.5 rounds and 15 first-round finishes. He thinks Sadykhov is hittable and lacks durability, and McKinney's explosivity and power will be too much. He picks McKinney to win in round one, either by KO or submission.

Paul picks Sadykhov, citing his ability to fight 15 full minutes and survive early pressure. He notes McKinney's cardio fades after 5-6 minutes and that Sadykhov can take damage and come back. He mentions Sadykhov's cut stoppage win over Elder was competitive, not one-sided. He thinks a live bet on Sadykhov after the first round is a good strategy.

The MMA Guru picks Terrance McKinney over Nazim Sadykhov, citing McKinney's KO power and ability to catch opponents, as seen against Matt Frevola. He worries about McKinney's KO loss but notes his youth and six-month layoff. He sees Sadykhov as a forward-momentum scrapper who could run into a big shot, predicting a McKinney KO.

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

The MMA Guru picks Melsik Baghdasaryan over Tucker Lutz, citing Baghdasaryan's superior striking skill and fluidity compared to Lutz's awkward, rigid style. He notes Lutz has lost two in a row and questions his ability to outgrapple Baghdasaryan, who hasn't been exposed on the ground aside from a submission loss to Joshua Culibao after winning the fight. He trusts Baghdasaryan's prior performances, including a 3-0 streak and a Contender Series win, and predicts a decision victory.

Angelo is very high on Viktoriya Dudakova, calling her a well-rounded fighter who can strike with Nunes and wrestle if needed. He notes her clean and powerful striking, slick BJJ, and veteran composure. He thinks even at minus 250, she seems like a discount and could be a parlay piece. He compares her favorably to Ivana Petrovic, who was a bust, and believes Dudakova is the real deal.

Big Brady picks Viktoriya Dudakova, expecting her to survive Nunes' early power and then take over as Nunes' poor cardio becomes a factor. He notes Nunes is very good in the first round but fades badly. Dudakova is a grappler who will look for takedowns and submissions. He predicts a late submission in the second round, as Nunes goes 0-4 in the UFC.

Cody picks Dudakova, citing her cardio and wrestling advantages. He notes Nunes is 0-3 in the UFC due to poor cardio and takedown defense. He thinks Dudakova can survive early pressure and take over as Nunes fades. He suggests a live bet after the first round might be better value, but pre-fight he goes with Dudakova.

James does not offer a clear pick for this fight. He mentions that he doesn't know much about the fighters and defers to his co-host Liam's analysis. He does not express a strong opinion.

The host expects Dudakova to survive Nunes' early onslaught, clinch up, slow the fight down, and take over in the second and third rounds. He suggests a round three or decision prop, noting that Nunes fades after the first round. He also mentions a possible live bet on Dudakova after round one.

Paul picks Dudakova, citing her wrestling advantage and Nunes' poor defensive wrestling and cardio. He notes Nunes fades after 7.5 minutes and Dudakova can survive early shots and secure takedowns as Nunes tires. He mentions Dudakova's contender series win as a +250 underdog and thinks her path to victory is consistent wrestling. He considers the by decision prop at +175.

The MMA Guru picks Viktoriya Dudakova over Istela Nunes, acknowledging Nunes's hunger but favoring Dudakova's youth, undefeated record, and well-roundedness. He notes Dudakova's Contender Series win despite an injury, and her opponent's subsequent success, while criticizing Nunes's losses to Ariane Carnelossi and Sam Hughes. He predicts a decision win for Dudakova.

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, believing a full camp Costa is better than a full camp Lingo. He notes Costa is a creative striker who uses his grappling well, while Lingo is a tough, well-rounded striker. However, he is not confident enough to bet on Costa, calling it a perfect fight to see how good a prospect Costa is. He advises against throwing money on this fight.

Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa, citing his superior striking volume, kicks, and offensive grappling. He notes Costa is hittable but tough, while Lingo has power but hasn't translated it at UFC level. He thinks Costa has more ways to win, though the fight may be closer than the line suggests. He calls -205 'kind of stupid' but expects Costa to get the job done.

Cody picks Costa, citing his faster, crisper striking and Lingo's basic, robotic style. He notes Lingo's inactivity and injuries, and that Costa's takedown defense won't be tested since Lingo doesn't wrestle. He thinks Costa's combination punching and power will be too much, and that Lingo's one-two pattern will get figured out.

The host thinks Costa's footwork, speed, and kicking game will keep him safe at distance, allowing him to touch up Lingo en route to a decision. He compares it to Lingo's fight with Luis Saldana, but believes Costa has the cardio to go the full 15 minutes unlike Saldana.

Paul picks Costa, citing his more well-rounded skill set on the feet. He thinks Costa will win with volume and precise striking over 15 minutes. He doesn't love the moneyline but sees it as a necessary play on a greasy card. He also mentions a PrizePicks prop for under 1.5 takedowns for Costa, as he doesn't expect wrestling to be part of the game plan.

The MMA Guru picks Melquizael Costa over Austin Lingo, dismissing Lingo's talent and noting his weak UFC wins over lower-level opponents. He highlights Costa's dangerous striking, good regional performances, and a Contender Series KO, while noting Lingo's quick turnaround after a KO loss to Nate Landwehr. He predicts Costa wins by KO in the later rounds.

Angelo picks Evan Elder, believing he is slightly better everywhere except straight-up BJJ, but his submission defense is good enough to keep him out of trouble. He notes both fighters have back-to-back losses, but Elder should win. However, he calls anyone playing minus 275 crazy, saying there are better spots.

Big Brady picks Evan Elder, expecting a wild brawl. He notes Valdez gets hurt frequently and has poor durability, while Elder is tougher and more durable. He predicts Elder will survive an early storm, hurt Valdez multiple times, and eventually finish him via TKO in the second round. He doesn't love the -300 price but thinks Elder's durability will be the difference.

Cody picks Elder, citing his power, durability, and improvement at 155. He thinks Elder will clip Valdez and put him away, as Valdez is defensively liable and gets hit frequently. He notes Elder's cut stoppage loss was not a knockout and he is hungry for his first UFC win. He expects a banger that ends in a knockout within two rounds.

The host believes Elder is the better striker and has good durability to handle a war with Valdez. He expects Elder to mix in takedowns if needed and potentially get a TKO. He notes Elder's improvements at Kill Cliff FC and sees this as a great matchup for Elder to get his first UFC win.

Paul picks Elder, agreeing it's a dangerous fight but noting Elder's durability and that his cut stoppage loss wasn't a knockout. He thinks both guys will stand and trade, and Elder has the advantage. He mentions a PrizePicks prop for over 40.5 significant strikes for Elder, as he expects a high-volume banger.

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder over Genaro Valdez, praising Elder's footwork, power, and toughness after a strong performance against Nazim Sadykhov. He criticizes Valdez's recent losses to Natan Levy and Matt Frevola, noting Valdez's plodding style and damage taken. He predicts Elder wins by decision or late TKO.

Angelo loves Azat Maksum, calling him one of the most talented new signings. He believes Maksum can touch Nam up on the feet and out-grapple him if needed. He notes Nam's age (39), recent knockout loss, and questionable chin. He says outside of a wild overhand, Nam won't win. He plans to parlay Maksum even at minus 300.

Big Brady picks Azat Maksum, believing he has multiple paths to victory. He notes Maksum is a good wrestler and grappler with power on the feet, while Tyson Nam relies heavily on knockout power and has low volume. He expects Maksum to take Nam down, breaking his 100% takedown defense, and likely find a submission in the second round. However, he refuses to bet at -415 for a debuting flyweight.

Cody picks Maksum, citing his youth, speed, volume, and wrestling. He notes Nam is 40, has low volume, and looked shot in his last fight. He acknowledges Nam's power and takedown defense but thinks Maksum's volume and wrestling will be too much. He considers a Nam by knockout prop at +650 as a long-shot but goes with Maksum.

The host is high on Maksum, calling him a beast with a 16-0 record, patient striking, and relentless takedown chains. He expects Maksum to use in-and-out pressure, kicks from distance, and counters before taking the fight to the ground and finishing Nam via TKO. He notes Nam's age (nearly 40) and recent first finish in 10 years as factors favoring Maksum.

Paul picks Maksum, citing his solid all-around skills, quick hands, and light footwork. He thinks Maksum can win at any range and has enough wrestling. He notes Nam is older and has low volume, but has knockout power. He is unexcited by the -420 price but understands why Maksum is favored.

The MMA Guru picks Azat Maksum over Tyson Nam, highlighting Maksum's undefeated record, regional dominance, and ability to rise to tough challenges. He notes Nam's recent KO loss to Bruno Silva and quick turnaround, questioning his durability. He predicts Maksum wins by KO or submission in the first round.

Angelo picks Alexander Munoz, believing he can wrestle his way to a boring decision. He notes Munoz is a very good wrestler but his hands need work, and the two-year layoff is concerning. He was initially ready to bet at minus 140 but decided to wait and see if the line tightens. He thinks Munoz should be able to dominate the wrestling and control the fight.

Big Brady picks Alexander Munoz but with hesitation due to a two-year layoff. He notes Munoz lost his last two UFC fights but was competitive. Stylistically, he thinks Munoz should win by mixing takedowns and controlling Deaton on the mat, ultimately winning a decision. However, the long layoff and lack of information on why Munoz was off puzzle him, making him unsure if Munoz will show up in form.

Cody picks Munoz, citing his wrestling and Deaton's poor takedown defense. He thinks Munoz will take him down early and often, possibly submitting him or winning a decision. He notes Deaton's only chance is if Munoz gasses, but expects Munoz to control the first two rounds. He likes the over 2.5 takedowns prop.

The host believes Munoz's wrestling will be too much for Deaton, and his improved striking will keep him competitive until he closes distance and grinds Deaton down. He expects Munoz to win by decision, noting that the -135 line is a gift if Munoz returns in good form after his ACL rehab.

Paul picks Munoz, citing his wrestling advantage and Deaton's poor takedown defense. He thinks Munoz can stick to a wrestling game plan and win with relative ease. He is concerned about the two-year layoff but thinks Munoz's wrestling should be enough. He will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Munoz over Carl Deaton III, stating Munoz has talent while Deaton does not. He notes Munoz's training at Team Alpha Male, controversial decision loss to Luis Pena, and potential for improvement, while Deaton's regional wins are weak and he was submitted by Joe Solecki. He predicts Munoz wins, possibly by decision or finish.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez, believing Ashlee will be rusty after a two-year layoff due to a USADA suspension. He notes Pérez defended five takedowns in her debut and got one of her own, while Ashlee is well-rounded but not a killer. He acknowledges Ashlee's experience makes her a live dog but thinks Pérez's youth and activity give her the edge.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez because Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off a 2.5-year layoff, is 36 years old, and was 1-4 in her last five fights before the suspension. He doubts she will show a much improved version of herself. While he acknowledges Pérez is not great, he believes her youth and activity will be enough to win. He calls laying -225 'very irresponsible' and says he won't bet it, but he thinks Pérez wins the fight.

Cody picks Pérez, citing her youth, hunger, and physical strength. He details Evans-Smith's personal issues, inactivity, and declining athleticism. He thinks Pérez will mash her into the cage, take her down, and test her cardio. He expects a finish inside the distance.

The host notes that Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off a nearly three-year layoff and is 36 years old, making her hard to trust. He believes Pérez will follow a similar game plan to Norma Dumont, using forward pressure and power to nullify Evans-Smith's wrestling and win by decision. Despite Pérez being raw, the host favors her due to Evans-Smith's inactivity and age.

Paul picks Pérez, citing her youth, hunger, and physical strength. He notes Evans-Smith has been inactive for three years and has personal issues. He thinks Pérez can take her down and rough her up. He is not touching the -220 line but picks her to win.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ailín Pérez over Ashlee Evans-Smith, noting Evans-Smith's three-year layoff and age (36) but questioning Pérez's loss to Stephanie Egger. He acknowledges Pérez's regional wins and Evans-Smith's potential return, but ultimately goes with Pérez by decision, though he wouldn't be surprised by an Evans-Smith win.