vs
-148 +186
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2
Age 29
Height 5' 10"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marquel Mederos
4.84 SLpM
56.0% Str. Acc.
2.99 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mark Choinski
3.87 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
7.33 SApM
33.0% Str. Def.
2.0 TD Avg
18.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Marquel Mederos
Moneyline
DraftKings -148
KO/TKO
FanDuel +410
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +160
Mark Choinski
Moneyline
BetRivers +186
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
DraftKings +575
Decision
DraftKings +450
Marquel Mederos - Fight History
Draw vs Chris Padilla
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 147 of 271 54% 164 of 291 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:09
Marquel Mederos 0 112 of 180 62% 117 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 40 of 66 60% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Marquel Mederos 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Chris Padilla 0 63 of 119 52% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 75 58% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:01
3 Chris Padilla 0 44 of 86 51% 49 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Marquel Mederos 0 41 of 64 64% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 147 of 271 54% 71 of 164 30 of 40 46 of 67 124 of 242 22 of 28 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 112 of 180 62% 81 of 147 12 of 13 19 of 20 91 of 155 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 40 of 66 60% 20 of 40 8 of 11 12 of 15 31 of 56 9 of 10 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 27 of 41 65% 14 of 27 6 of 6 7 of 8 20 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 63 of 119 52% 23 of 62 11 of 14 29 of 43 61 of 113 2 of 6 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 44 of 75 58% 32 of 62 3 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 71 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Chris Padilla 44 of 86 51% 28 of 62 11 of 15 5 of 9 32 of 73 11 of 12 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 41 of 64 64% 35 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 50 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
WIN vs Mark Choinski
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 1 110 of 165 66% 115 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Mark Choinski 0 58 of 114 50% 64 of 120 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 31 of 46 67% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mark Choinski 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:23
2 Marquel Mederos 0 52 of 82 63% 54 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Mark Choinski 0 26 of 44 59% 26 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Marquel Mederos 1 27 of 37 72% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Mark Choinski 0 18 of 34 52% 23 of 39 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 110 of 165 66% 63 of 108 16 of 18 31 of 39 94 of 146 10 of 10 6 of 9
Mark Choinski 58 of 114 50% 48 of 102 7 of 9 3 of 3 54 of 106 2 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 31 of 46 67% 15 of 27 6 of 6 10 of 13 31 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mark Choinski 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 52 of 82 63% 35 of 60 7 of 9 10 of 13 44 of 71 5 of 5 3 of 6
Mark Choinski 26 of 44 59% 22 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2 26 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 27 of 37 72% 13 of 21 3 of 3 11 of 13 19 of 29 5 of 5 3 of 3
Mark Choinski 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Angelo picks Mark Choinski but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Marquel Mederos was sick last week and had to pull out, which raises concerns about his conditioning. He thinks Mark is a good wrestler with creative striking, but he doesn't wrestle enough. He picks Mark because he can't trust a guy who was too sick to fight days ago.

"I'm going to pick Mark because he is a good wrestler. ... I can't trust a guy that was too sick to fight just a few days ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Big Brady picks Mark Choinski as a live underdog. He notes Choinski's wrestling background and solid top control, and thinks he can take Mederos down and win a competitive decision. He points out that Mederos struggled with Austin Hubbard and Landon Quiñones, and that Choinski is a better wrestler than Hubbard. He acknowledges Mederos has 85% takedown defense but thinks Choinski can still get takedowns.

Choinski by decision
"I'm actually going to take Mark the Shark. I'm going to take Mark the Shark here as a pretty big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but has strong NCAA wrestling credentials. He is expected to take down Mederos, grind him out, and possibly threaten submissions. The pick is for Choinski to win on the scorecards.

"I believe he'll be able to showcase his NCAA wrestling on full display here, taking down Maderos, grinding him out, maybe threatening with a few submission attempts, but I expect Troinsky to be very effective and eventually get his hand …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos, citing significant reach and height advantages, as well as more experience. He notes Mark Choinski is short and light for the division, and lacks experience. He expects Mederos to use his physical advantages to win.

"I'm going to go with Markel Maderos getting this one done. The reach advantage, the height advantage, the having weight in general..."
CANCEL vs Bolaji Oki
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Angelo picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his cleaner striking technique and defensive soundness. He believes Mederos can use his jab to get through Bolaji Oki's guard and that Oki's power and speed will be less effective as he slows down. He also mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet.

Mentions a potential plus 3.5 round spread bet on Mederos.
"I am going with Markeel Maderos here. He is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Big Brady likes Bolaji Oki's volume and power, noting his strong performance against Chris Duncan before getting caught in a guillotine. He criticizes Marquel Mederos for close fights against lower-level opponents like Lanni Quinonez and Austin Hubbard, and believes Oki can out-strike and potentially out-grapple Mederos. He picks Oki by decision.

by decision
"I like Oki here. You know, Oki's a very good fighter. I like the volume, you know, in that Chris Duncan fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos as an underdog, citing his versatility in multiple ranges (clinch, inside, distance) compared to Bolaji Oki who is primarily effective at range. He notes Mederos' composure and Oki's occasional overzealousness. He predicts a TKO in later rounds or a decision win.

"I'm actually going to go with Markeel Madios here. He's an underdog... I think Markeel Maderos is more effective in more different ranges than Bellagio is."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · Mar 29, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 68 64% 57 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:33
Austin Hubbard 0 26 of 65 40% 62 of 121 2 of 9 22% 1 0 7:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 17 of 39 43% 19 of 41 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Marquel Mederos 0 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 3 of 9 33% 18 of 35 1 of 2 50% 1 0 4:12
3 Marquel Mederos 0 15 of 22 68% 28 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:28
Austin Hubbard 0 6 of 17 35% 25 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 44 of 68 64% 21 of 41 7 of 7 16 of 20 32 of 55 4 of 4 8 of 9
Austin Hubbard 26 of 65 40% 16 of 51 6 of 9 4 of 5 22 of 60 3 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 23 of 35 65% 9 of 19 4 of 4 10 of 12 21 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 17 of 39 43% 10 of 28 4 of 7 3 of 4 15 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 3 of 9 33% 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 15 of 22 68% 9 of 15 2 of 2 4 of 5 5 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 9
Austin Hubbard 6 of 17 35% 4 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 2
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Connor picks Mederos, noting his Tony Ferguson-like style of fighting in the pocket with high activity and creativity. He thinks Mederos's pressure will overwhelm Hubbard, who is reactive and lacks power. He acknowledges that Mederos's style puts him in danger but believes he can go far before a potential fall.

"I think I'm gonna pick him over Austin Hubbard. The pressure that Mederos puts on especially against something like Hubbard who invites pressure... he's gonna get hit a ton but there's a lot of ways that Mederos can kind of …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Zane picks Mederos, agreeing that his aggressive pocket fighting will be too much for Hubbard. He notes that Hubbard's game is reactive and low-power, and that Mederos's willingness to eat a shot and come back is a key advantage. Zane thinks the matchup favors Mederos's mentality.

"I'll take Mederos too. This is not one that it would shock me if Hubbard managed to outpoint him, but I just don't like how Hubbard fights."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 0 55 of 149 36% 78 of 176 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
Landon Quiñones 0 60 of 146 41% 74 of 165 0 of 5 0% 0 0 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 19 of 47 40% 31 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:17
Landon Quiñones 0 12 of 36 33% 15 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
2 Marquel Mederos 0 18 of 48 37% 22 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Landon Quiñones 0 21 of 55 38% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
3 Marquel Mederos 0 18 of 54 33% 25 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Landon Quiñones 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 62 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 55 of 149 36% 41 of 115 11 of 26 3 of 8 54 of 145 1 of 4 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 60 of 146 41% 28 of 103 18 of 26 14 of 17 55 of 141 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 19 of 47 40% 11 of 32 5 of 10 3 of 5 18 of 43 1 of 4 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 12 of 36 33% 7 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 18 of 48 37% 16 of 38 2 of 8 0 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 21 of 55 38% 9 of 37 6 of 11 6 of 7 20 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 18 of 54 33% 14 of 45 4 of 8 0 of 1 18 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Landon Quiñones 27 of 55 49% 12 of 37 9 of 11 6 of 7 24 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Angelo picks Marquel Mederos, citing his composure, dangerous striking, and takedown defense. He notes that Mederos is a touted prospect but warns against overexposure due to his UFC debut. He mentions that Mederos is part of a parlay with Thomas Petersen but only one bet on him.

Mederos included in a parlay with Thomas Petersen
"I'm confident in Marquel to win obviously be very careful he is a young guy at 27 this is his official UFC debut"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Big Brady picks the underdog Landon Quiñones to win a close decision. He notes that both fighters are evenly matched and the line should be closer. He highlights Quiñones' incredible toughness, volume, leg kicks, and power, as well as his defensive wrestling. He expects the fight to primarily take place on the feet and go to decision, with the judges potentially messing it up.

decision, fight of the night potential
"give me the underdog here and lonz to win a very close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Cody picks Quiñones, citing his volume, cardio, and technical striking. He notes Mederos' power but questions his cardio and wrestling. He thinks Quiñones' output and durability will earn him a decision or late stoppage.

"got to go Atlantic konz"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Mederos has a great striking game with educated kicks and decent grappling. Quiñones looked out of shape in his last fight and has questionable cardio. Mederos should control the fight with his kicks from range and possibly mix in takedowns to drain Quiñones' energy. The host expects Mederos to win by decision.

"I think mados has this fight in the bag kind of surprised that we're only getting minus 140 on this line right now."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Landon Quiñones

Paul picks Quiñones, noting he missed the better plus-money price but still likes him. He highlights Quiñones' performance against Hackbarth and his grappling improvements. He thinks Mederos is a one-round threat but Quiñones can weather it.

"Landon canones will be the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos over Landon Quiñones, citing that Quiñones was getting beaten up by Nazareno Malegarie, who lacks power. He notes Mederos has high finishing potential with good boxing, a knee KO, and decent takedown defense. He also dislikes the damage Quiñones is coming off of and believes Mederos will get a finish.

finish
"I'm actually G to go with marel Maderos over Landon Quinones... I am going to go with Marquel Maderos and I reckon he will get a finish."
Mark Choinski - Fight History
LOSS vs Marquel Mederos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marquel Mederos 1 110 of 165 66% 115 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Mark Choinski 0 58 of 114 50% 64 of 120 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marquel Mederos 0 31 of 46 67% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Mark Choinski 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 37 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:23
2 Marquel Mederos 0 52 of 82 63% 54 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Mark Choinski 0 26 of 44 59% 26 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
3 Marquel Mederos 1 27 of 37 72% 30 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Mark Choinski 0 18 of 34 52% 23 of 39 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marquel Mederos 110 of 165 66% 63 of 108 16 of 18 31 of 39 94 of 146 10 of 10 6 of 9
Mark Choinski 58 of 114 50% 48 of 102 7 of 9 3 of 3 54 of 106 2 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marquel Mederos 31 of 46 67% 15 of 27 6 of 6 10 of 13 31 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mark Choinski 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marquel Mederos 52 of 82 63% 35 of 60 7 of 9 10 of 13 44 of 71 5 of 5 3 of 6
Mark Choinski 26 of 44 59% 22 of 39 2 of 3 2 of 2 26 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marquel Mederos 27 of 37 72% 13 of 21 3 of 3 11 of 13 19 of 29 5 of 5 3 of 3
Mark Choinski 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Angelo picks Mark Choinski but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Marquel Mederos was sick last week and had to pull out, which raises concerns about his conditioning. He thinks Mark is a good wrestler with creative striking, but he doesn't wrestle enough. He picks Mark because he can't trust a guy who was too sick to fight days ago.

"I'm going to pick Mark because he is a good wrestler. ... I can't trust a guy that was too sick to fight just a few days ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Big Brady picks Mark Choinski as a live underdog. He notes Choinski's wrestling background and solid top control, and thinks he can take Mederos down and win a competitive decision. He points out that Mederos struggled with Austin Hubbard and Landon Quiñones, and that Choinski is a better wrestler than Hubbard. He acknowledges Mederos has 85% takedown defense but thinks Choinski can still get takedowns.

Choinski by decision
"I'm actually going to take Mark the Shark. I'm going to take Mark the Shark here as a pretty big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but has strong NCAA wrestling credentials. He is expected to take down Mederos, grind him out, and possibly threaten submissions. The pick is for Choinski to win on the scorecards.

"I believe he'll be able to showcase his NCAA wrestling on full display here, taking down Maderos, grinding him out, maybe threatening with a few submission attempts, but I expect Troinsky to be very effective and eventually get his hand …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos, citing significant reach and height advantages, as well as more experience. He notes Mark Choinski is short and light for the division, and lacks experience. He expects Mederos to use his physical advantages to win.

"I'm going to go with Markel Maderos getting this one done. The reach advantage, the height advantage, the having weight in general..."
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Angelo picks Mark Choinski but is hesitant due to the unusual circumstances. He notes Marquel Mederos was sick last week and had to pull out, which raises concerns about his conditioning. He thinks Mark is a good wrestler with creative striking, but he doesn't wrestle enough. He picks Mark because he can't trust a guy who was too sick to fight days ago.

"I'm going to pick Mark because he is a good wrestler. ... I can't trust a guy that was too sick to fight just a few days ago."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Big Brady picks Mark Choinski as a live underdog. He notes Choinski's wrestling background and solid top control, and thinks he can take Mederos down and win a competitive decision. He points out that Mederos struggled with Austin Hubbard and Landon Quiñones, and that Choinski is a better wrestler than Hubbard. He acknowledges Mederos has 85% takedown defense but thinks Choinski can still get takedowns.

Choinski by decision
"I'm actually going to take Mark the Shark. I'm going to take Mark the Shark here as a pretty big underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mark Choinski

Choinski makes his UFC debut on short notice but has strong NCAA wrestling credentials. He is expected to take down Mederos, grind him out, and possibly threaten submissions. The pick is for Choinski to win on the scorecards.

"I believe he'll be able to showcase his NCAA wrestling on full display here, taking down Maderos, grinding him out, maybe threatening with a few submission attempts, but I expect Troinsky to be very effective and eventually get his hand raised on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

The MMA Guru picks Marquel Mederos, citing significant reach and height advantages, as well as more experience. He notes Mark Choinski is short and light for the division, and lacks experience. He expects Mederos to use his physical advantages to win.

"I'm going to go with Markel Maderos getting this one done. The reach advantage, the height advantage, the having weight in general..."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Mederos got that heavy foot, like his camp. Could have won by leg kicks