UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 8"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Julianna Peña
3.1 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.56 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
1.7 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
24.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kayla Harrison
4.29 SLpM
62.0% Str. Acc.
1.1 SApM
66.0% Str. Def.
2.84 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Julianna Peña
Moneyline
DraftKings +525
KO/TKO
DraftKings +2000
Submission
FanDuel +1200
Decision
BetMGM +1500
Kayla Harrison
Moneyline
DraftKings -560
KO/TKO
Caesars +330
Submission
Caesars +185
Decision
BetRivers +235
Julianna Peña - Fight History
LOSS vs Kayla Harrison
Submission R2 4:55 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 9 of 30 30% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 30 of 54 55% 59 of 88 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 8 of 24 33% 24 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
2 Julianna Peña 0 3 of 13 23% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 22 of 30 73% 35 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 30 of 54 55% 17 of 39 9 of 10 4 of 5 15 of 36 6 of 7 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 8 of 24 33% 5 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Julianna Peña 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kayla Harrison 22 of 30 73% 12 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 15 6 of 7 6 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.

Odds are too wide; probably won't bet on Kayla.
"Kayla Harrison's going to be the pick. Obviously, the odds are insane. I would say these odds are actually too wide."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.

Harrison by submission in round 2
"I think Harrison gets the fight down to the ground. I think she mixes in some ground and pound. I think she eventually gets a submission here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.

Odds: Peña +551. Connor thinks the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer.
"I am going to pick Juliana Pena."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.

win by TKO
"Look for Harrison to utilize her physicality, her judo, her grappling to eventually get Pena to the ground, wear her out and eventually ground and pound her on route to a TKO victory and new bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.

Odds comment: Harrison should be -300, not -600. Value on Peña by submission or finish. Finish prediction: decision win.
"I'm going to go with Kayla Harrison getting this one done. Decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.

Odds: Harrison -658, Peña +551. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, should be around -200.
"I have to still pick Harrison here."
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 1 92 of 317 29% 112 of 345 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Raquel Pennington 0 92 of 260 35% 123 of 308 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 17 of 60 28% 17 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 25 of 59 42% 25 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 24 25% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 6 of 16 37% 18 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:00
3 Julianna Peña 0 8 of 34 23% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raquel Pennington 0 18 of 33 54% 35 of 53 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:20
4 Julianna Peña 1 26 of 84 30% 26 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Raquel Pennington 0 16 of 67 23% 18 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
5 Julianna Peña 0 35 of 115 30% 35 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Raquel Pennington 0 27 of 85 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 92 of 317 29% 57 of 277 29 of 33 6 of 7 88 of 308 4 of 6 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 92 of 260 35% 82 of 248 9 of 11 1 of 1 90 of 256 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 17 of 60 28% 12 of 53 3 of 4 2 of 3 17 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 25 of 59 42% 24 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 6 of 24 25% 2 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julianna Peña 8 of 34 23% 5 of 31 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 18 of 33 54% 14 of 28 3 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Julianna Peña 26 of 84 30% 12 of 69 12 of 13 2 of 2 25 of 80 1 of 1 0 of 3
Raquel Pennington 16 of 67 23% 14 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Julianna Peña 35 of 115 30% 26 of 105 8 of 9 1 of 1 34 of 113 1 of 2 0 of 0
Raquel Pennington 27 of 85 31% 24 of 81 3 of 4 0 of 0 27 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–44, 50–43) R5 5:00 · UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Jul 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 60 of 154 38% 130 of 239 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 85 of 152 55% 126 of 201 6 of 8 75% 1 0 11:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 21 of 51 41% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Nunes 0 25 of 66 37% 31 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 3 19 of 48 39% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
3 Amanda Nunes 0 6 of 21 28% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 14 of 23 60% 23 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:02
4 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 10 40% 33 of 42 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 16 of 20 80% 34 of 40 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:54
5 Amanda Nunes 0 4 of 6 66% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 14 78% 20 of 26 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 60 of 154 38% 54 of 144 6 of 10 0 of 0 59 of 151 1 of 3 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 85 of 152 55% 67 of 128 10 of 14 8 of 10 57 of 117 0 of 1 28 of 34
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 21 of 51 41% 20 of 49 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 50 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 25 of 47 53% 17 of 37 3 of 3 5 of 7 25 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Nunes 25 of 66 37% 21 of 59 4 of 7 0 of 0 24 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 19 of 48 39% 13 of 40 4 of 6 2 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Amanda Nunes 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 13 0 of 1 7 of 9
4 Amanda Nunes 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 16 of 20 80% 15 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 14
5 Amanda Nunes 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 11 of 14 78% 10 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is better everywhere and that the first fight was a one-off due to injury or motivation issues. He expects Nunes to finish early, but if it extends, he has concerns about her cardio. He is not betting this fight.

"i'm going to take nunes here... i'll say nunez first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Cody believes Peña is the right pick because she already exposed Nunes' cardio and quit rate. He notes Nunes has suspect cardio, has shown red flags in fights against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, and may be unmotivated after becoming a multi-millionaire and mother. He also points out that Peña is durable, pressures well, and the odds (+245) are too juicy to pass up given she just choked Nunes out. He expects Peña to win again, possibly taking a bit longer this time.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i just think that the pace at some point will cause amanda to quit... the odds are just way too juicy to look away here's a girl that just choked her out in the second round standing feels like crap …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Daniel argues that Julianna Peña's ability to stand up to the bully and absorb Nunes' power is the key factor. He notes that Peña's iron jaw and willpower broke Nunes mentally in the first fight, causing her to tap to a choke that wasn't locked in. He believes Nunes has a history of struggling when opponents don't back down, citing the Cat Zingano fight and the Valentina Shevchenko fights. He acknowledges Nunes could win via calf kicks or a submission, but he trusts Peña's heart and durability. He also points out that long-reigning champions rarely regain their belt in immediate rematches, citing a 11-2 record for the new champion.

1 unit bet at +245; mentions that Peña could win by ground and pound from full mount this time
"I'm taking Juliana Peña. I only put one unit on it, um I think I got it plus 245."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Amanda Nunes

Preet leans Nunes to win but won't lay -260; instead he likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100. He expects a more cautious, methodical fight that goes into the later rounds, noting that rematches of first-round finishes often go the distance. He thinks Nunes will be more disciplined and use leg kicks and combinations, but Peña's durability and pressure could extend the fight.

over 2.5 rounds +100
"the spot that i think that is being overlooked here is the the over uh over one and a half minus 190 not bad but even the over two and a half plus 100"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Paul picks Peña as well, citing the narrative that Nunes emptied her tank early in the first fight and quit. He thinks Nunes can win a striking match if she paces herself, but he's terrified to bet the fight. He notes that Peña is super durable and that the odds (+245) are attractive. He compares it to Ronda Rousey's loss to Holly Holm, where people still believed in Rousey, but here Peña already beat Nunes.

Nunes under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks; odds are too juicy for Peña at +245
"i'll pick pena if i was going to bet but like i'm terrified to bet this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2022 (fight day)
Julianna Peña

The MMA Guru predicts Julianna Peña wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round four. He expects Nunes to win the first two rounds with takedowns and jabs, but Peña will threaten submissions throughout. In round four, Peña times a takedown, passes to half guard, takes the back, and chokes Nunes out.

submission in round 4
"juliana pena choked her around on round four"
WIN vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:26 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 46 of 99 46% 58 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 79 of 135 58% 90 of 147 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 10 of 14 71% 22 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:35
Amanda Nunes 0 5 of 20 25% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Julianna Peña 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Amanda Nunes 0 74 of 115 64% 74 of 115 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 46 of 99 46% 36 of 85 1 of 3 9 of 11 44 of 97 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 79 of 135 58% 69 of 122 10 of 13 0 of 0 78 of 134 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 12 0 of 0 2 of 2
Amanda Nunes 5 of 20 25% 5 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julianna Peña 36 of 85 42% 32 of 78 0 of 1 4 of 6 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Nunes 74 of 115 64% 64 of 103 10 of 12 0 of 0 73 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.

Nunes by submission in round 1
"i think amanda nunez is going to get it done i think she's going to get it done early very early in the first round whether it's a first round knockout or a first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.

submission, first round, d'arce or anaconda choke
"i think that amanda nunes is going to sprawl on her and i'm thinking a darcer anaconda choke finish in the first round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Nunes

Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.

over 1.5 rounds, Nunes inside the distance
"i'm going nunez nunes by let's say third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Nunes

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.

first-round TKO
"i'm gonna go with amanda nunez here she's on a different level she's too strong she's too manly she's too lesbian juliana pena is too heterosexual i'm going with amanda nunez by tko in the first round"
WIN vs Sara McMann
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:39 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 38 of 76 50% 140 of 192 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:55
Sara McMann 0 21 of 54 38% 28 of 63 3 of 3 100% 0 0 7:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 5 of 20 25% 37 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sara McMann 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:58
2 Julianna Peña 0 13 of 29 44% 70 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Sara McMann 0 8 of 17 47% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 27 74% 33 of 42 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:47
Sara McMann 0 1 of 7 14% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 38 of 76 50% 27 of 65 11 of 11 0 of 0 20 of 57 10 of 10 8 of 9
Sara McMann 21 of 54 38% 10 of 39 7 of 10 4 of 5 12 of 43 6 of 6 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sara McMann 12 of 30 40% 7 of 23 3 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 1
2 Julianna Peña 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 23 6 of 6 0 of 0
Sara McMann 8 of 17 47% 3 of 10 3 of 4 2 of 3 2 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 27 74% 15 of 22 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 14 4 of 4 8 of 9
Sara McMann 1 of 7 14% 0 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.

"give me sarah mcmahon 29 28 maybe 30 27"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.

"i'll go with sarah just stay in it for 15 straight minutes keep your head on straight and you win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Sara McMann

McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.

"I'm going with Sara McMann to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Sara McMann

The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.

30-27 unanimous decision, ground control
"i'm going to go sarah mcmahon smushing her on the ground in half guard with top control the entire round landing total strikes winning herself to fight that way"
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R3 3:25 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Germaine de Randamie 0 37 of 91 40% 57 of 119 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 91 29% 58 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Germaine de Randamie 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 43 18% 12 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
2 Germaine de Randamie 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:48
Julianna Peña 0 11 of 23 47% 30 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:41
3 Germaine de Randamie 0 11 of 24 45% 15 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 8 of 25 32% 16 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Germaine de Randamie 37 of 91 40% 32 of 86 5 of 5 0 of 0 32 of 84 4 of 6 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 27 of 91 29% 19 of 79 7 of 10 1 of 2 18 of 75 2 of 2 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Germaine de Randamie 20 of 58 34% 18 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 43 18% 7 of 39 0 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Germaine de Randamie 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 6 1 of 2 1 of 1
Julianna Peña 11 of 23 47% 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 14
3 Germaine de Randamie 11 of 24 45% 8 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 8 of 25 32% 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.

"give me drain derandomy to win this fight by uh by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.

de Randamie by knockout; mentions the striking gap is bigger than the grappling gap; notes Peña's horrendous stand-up
"i'm gonna roll with jermaine duran maybe a knockout in this spot it kind of reminds me of the aspen lad fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.

"i love juliana pena in this situation i'm kind of surprised at the amount of love that's coming in on jermaine duranomy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Germaine de Randamie

The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.

Prediction: TKO
"i'm going to go to jeremy i think she can survive on the ground and i think she'll keep it standing and beat up juliana pena on the feet with some brutal leg kicks eventually finishing by tko"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Randamie vs. Ladd · Jul 13, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 45 of 90 50% 108 of 158 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:36
Nicco Montaño 0 38 of 79 48% 59 of 103 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 9 of 19 47% 14 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Nicco Montaño 0 11 of 25 44% 25 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:07
2 Julianna Peña 0 16 of 27 59% 42 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Nicco Montaño 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:23
3 Julianna Peña 0 20 of 44 45% 52 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Nicco Montaño 0 14 of 32 43% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 45 of 90 50% 32 of 73 12 of 14 1 of 3 21 of 64 8 of 9 16 of 17
Nicco Montaño 38 of 79 48% 13 of 50 10 of 10 15 of 19 26 of 57 6 of 11 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 9 of 19 47% 4 of 13 5 of 5 0 of 1 3 of 12 6 of 7 0 of 0
Nicco Montaño 11 of 25 44% 5 of 16 1 of 1 5 of 8 5 of 14 2 of 5 4 of 6
2 Julianna Peña 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 1 of 11 2 of 2 13 of 14
Nicco Montaño 13 of 22 59% 3 of 11 2 of 2 8 of 9 7 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 5
3 Julianna Peña 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 41 0 of 0 3 of 3
Nicco Montaño 14 of 32 43% 5 of 23 7 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Submission (armbar) R2 4:29 · UFC on Fox: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Jan 28, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 17 76% 46 of 51 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 27 of 35 77% 78 of 99 1 of 5 20% 0 0 6:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 12 66% 25 of 29 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:42
Julianna Peña 0 20 of 24 83% 46 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:53
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 5 of 5 100% 21 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Julianna Peña 0 7 of 11 63% 32 of 46 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 17 76% 5 of 9 7 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 4 7 of 7 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 27 of 35 77% 2 of 5 22 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 2 25 of 30 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 3 5 of 6
Julianna Peña 20 of 24 83% 0 of 0 17 of 21 3 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 24 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4 0 of 0
Julianna Peña 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2 5 of 6 2 of 3
Kayla Harrison - Fight History
Submission R2 4:55 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julianna Peña 0 9 of 30 30% 15 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 30 of 54 55% 59 of 88 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julianna Peña 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 8 of 24 33% 24 of 41 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
2 Julianna Peña 0 3 of 13 23% 6 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kayla Harrison 0 22 of 30 73% 35 of 47 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julianna Peña 9 of 30 30% 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 26 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 30 of 54 55% 17 of 39 9 of 10 4 of 5 15 of 36 6 of 7 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julianna Peña 6 of 17 35% 5 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kayla Harrison 8 of 24 33% 5 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 3
2 Julianna Peña 3 of 13 23% 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kayla Harrison 22 of 30 73% 12 of 19 8 of 9 2 of 2 10 of 15 6 of 7 6 of 8
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.

Odds are too wide; probably won't bet on Kayla.
"Kayla Harrison's going to be the pick. Obviously, the odds are insane. I would say these odds are actually too wide."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.

Harrison by submission in round 2
"I think Harrison gets the fight down to the ground. I think she mixes in some ground and pound. I think she eventually gets a submission here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.

Odds: Peña +551. Connor thinks the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer.
"I am going to pick Juliana Pena."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.

win by TKO
"Look for Harrison to utilize her physicality, her judo, her grappling to eventually get Pena to the ground, wear her out and eventually ground and pound her on route to a TKO victory and new bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.

Odds comment: Harrison should be -300, not -600. Value on Peña by submission or finish. Finish prediction: decision win.
"I'm going to go with Kayla Harrison getting this one done. Decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.

Odds: Harrison -658, Peña +551. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, should be around -200.
"I have to still pick Harrison here."
WIN vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 24 of 61 39% 67 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 55 of 94 58% 98 of 149 2 of 8 25% 0 0 7:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 5 of 16 31% 27 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 17 of 27 62% 37 of 53 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:46
2 Kayla Harrison 0 14 of 32 43% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 15 of 35 42% 27 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:02
3 Kayla Harrison 0 5 of 13 38% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ketlen Vieira 0 23 of 32 71% 34 of 46 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 24 of 61 39% 12 of 38 4 of 15 8 of 8 21 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 55 of 94 58% 34 of 69 14 of 16 7 of 9 19 of 50 15 of 17 21 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 5 of 16 31% 1 of 8 0 of 4 4 of 4 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 17 of 27 62% 7 of 17 9 of 9 1 of 1 4 of 12 9 of 11 4 of 4
2 Kayla Harrison 14 of 32 43% 8 of 22 3 of 7 3 of 3 11 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 15 of 35 42% 8 of 25 4 of 6 3 of 4 9 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Kayla Harrison 5 of 13 38% 3 of 8 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ketlen Vieira 23 of 32 71% 19 of 27 1 of 1 3 of 4 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 23
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)

Round 1
Even though she is currently ranked higher than her opponent, Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC) finds herself as a massive betting underdog at around +700 against enormous favorite Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC). Anything can happen in this glorious sport, and it often does. This grappling-centric affair will draw oversight from referee Marc Goddard, and the main card commences as the bantamweights touch ‘em up. Vieira flicks out a jab towards the jittery Harrison, and she gets knocked back by a left hand. Vieira reaches out with her right hand, and chants in support of her opponent rain down in the form of “USA!” Harrison does not channel this energy immediately, taking to the center of the cage and checking a low kick. Harrison kicks her to the chest, and Vieira skirts out the outer edge of the cage. Harrison tries to hit a trip, and Vieira slips away. Harrison fires off a high kick, and Vieira blocks it as the judoka stumbles. Harrison springs back to her feet and grasps Vieira around the waist, delivering knees to the body as Vieira tries to catch them fruitlessly. Harrison goes for a knee up top, and she hunts for a few trips to no avail. Harrison slams a knee in the ribs, and she uses her other to smack the Brazilian in the face with it. Goddard asks for more activity, and the audience turns on the ladies as they spend a lot of time in the clinch. Vieira tries to escape, and she blocks a knee and wings as right hand that bounces off the guard. Harrison checks another kick and parries a body kick, and she returns fire with her own kick to the stomach. Harrison sticks and moves with a low kick and one high, and Vieira swings and misses. This allows Harrison to close in on her, and she bowls Vieira over and ultimately lands in half guard. “USA” chants for Harrison rain down again, and she moves to mount and blasts Vieira in the face with an elbow. Vieira turns around to give up her back, and Harrison follows her every step of the way, battering her with elbows and punches. Vieira rides out the position under fire until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison

Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and they lob inaccurate strikes at one another. The first one landed is a low kick from the American, and she dances out of the way of a few long right hands from Vieira. Vieira sits down on a right hand to catch Harrison on the chin, and she gets tripped out with an inside low kick. Vieira stands back up without issue, and she parries a high kick. Vieira gets off her own leg kick, and she again tags Harrison with a right on the side of the head. Vieira digs a right to the body, and Harrison punches her way into a takedown attempt where she grabs the leg and puts her hand behind the neck to throw her foe down. Vieira fights it off and resets, blocking another head kick so she can jab Harrison in the ribs. Harrison shoots for a takedown and complains of an eye poke when Vieira posted off, and Harrison signals she is fine and does not need to pause. Vieira stops two more attempts and lands a few strikes, and Harrison plants her feet to connect with a heavy leg kick. Harrison pushes in tight to the clinch, and she is warned for holding the fence. Vieira breaks away, and Harrison plows forward with a knee to the body before clinching up again. While Vieira answers with an elbow, she cannot gain any space. Vieira rings her bell with another elbow, and Harrison pushes through it to get back up close and personal with knees to the body. Vieira blasts her with another elbow, and swelling has developed above Harrison’s right eye. Harrison digs several more knees to the body, and blood trickles out of the lump on her head. Goddard asks for more action, and he splits them up with 20 seconds left in the round. Vieira kicks low, gets checked, and pushes past a head kick to throw one back. The round ends with both ladies whiffing on kicks.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison

Round 3
The ladies bump fists and then bow to one another to start the round. Harrison comes out aggressively, blocking a kick and shooting in for a double. Vieira breaks out of it and lobs back a one-two that busts open Harrison’s nose, with blood flowing immediately. Harrison tries for another takedown, and that fails again. Harrison gets off an inside leg kick that disrupts Vieira’s balance, and she pursues a takedown and comes up short. Harrison checks a calf kick and goes for a takedown that is nowhere close to landing. Vieira swipes a right to the body, and her guard is high to block a head kick. Harrison crashes forward for a takedown, lifts Vieira’s leg up and cannot get her down. On Harrison’s second attempt, she succeeds in wrenching the Brazilian to the mat. Vieira tries to tug on the fencing to stop it, but she is placed on her back with Harrison raining down elbows. Vieira pushes her back, and Harrison comes back to drill her with a left hand. Harrison stays busy with ground-and-pound, and Vieira pulls her toes on the wire to get to a more advantageous position. Harrison postures up to drop down three left hands, and Vieira throws her legs up for a high guard or a triangle choke. Harrison is wise to it and continues slamming down punches, and she brings down the hammer with a few high-amplitude elbows. Harrison passes to half guard, and she slices over to mount with 45 seconds to spare. Harrison slashes down with a few elbows, and Vieira clings to her tightly. Vieira turns over, and Harrison spins with her and wrenches on her neck with a brute force crank more than a choke. Harrison swirls over to half guard when Vieira turns, and she gets pushed to her feet as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (30-27 Harrison)

The Official Result
Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.

Look at under 2.5 rounds line for value
"Kayla Harrison dominates here she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.

"I'll go Kayla Harrison to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.

"Harrison will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Hey, if they're if they're hoping for a pania win that then sets up harrison in a uh for a title fight where that actually has like not just two b sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.

"Kayla Harrison coming out here getting this win securing a title shot"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.

Harrison by submission +350
"I like Kayla Harrison here I think we see her absolutely pile things on"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.

"I'm taking Kayla Harrison obviously"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.

odds a little bit wide for my liking
"the odds a little bit wide for my liking but that still does not take away from the fact that I think that Harrison goes out there and grinds this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.

"I'm picking Kayla Harrison"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.

"I'm going to go Kayla Harrison you guys I just got a hunch that she's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.

Harrison opened at -769, now -1042. Vieira opened at +483, now +659.
"Kayla harrison's gonna win. what is I know shocker."
WIN vs Holly Holm
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:47 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kayla Harrison 0 2 of 12 16% 7 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 51 of 71 71% 68 of 91 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Holly Holm 0 46 of 62 74% 56 of 73 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:49
2 Kayla Harrison 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 5 of 9 55% 12 of 18 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kayla Harrison 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 51 of 71 71% 46 of 66 4 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 15 3 of 3 42 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Holly Holm 46 of 62 74% 43 of 59 2 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 41 of 51
2 Kayla Harrison 1 of 6 16% 0 of 3 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 5 of 9 55% 3 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.

Will watch weigh-ins before betting
"I think Kayla absolutely blows through Holly home here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.

"I will back her and think that she does get that done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to pick Kayla Harrison too, obviously, but it does have to be said that like Kayla Harrison does not have a record littered with the most impressive fighters, let's say."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.

"I am definitely going with Kayla as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.

"I'm excited to see Kayla in the UFC I know a lot of people are on her I'm excited to see her on the UFC me personally man so that's another good fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.

submission, wait for weigh-ins
"I do lean Harrison as I think that her grappling will end up being too much for Holly Holm"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.

"I think it's a clear dogger pass probably a pass for me but uh do you have an official pick... I find myself pulling the coward card on this one and going with Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.

"Kayla Harrison is going to get down Holly Holm and dominate her in this fight to a decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.

Odds: Harrison opened -455, now -395; Holm opened +316, now +324. Zane mentions the line movement.
"My lane is that Kayla Harrison's clinched judo game is too good for Holly home to be just strong in the clench and make that what works for her."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.

Odds are too wide; probably won't bet on Kayla.
"Kayla Harrison's going to be the pick. Obviously, the odds are insane. I would say these odds are actually too wide."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.

Harrison by submission in round 2
"I think Harrison gets the fight down to the ground. I think she mixes in some ground and pound. I think she eventually gets a submission here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.

Odds: Peña +551. Connor thinks the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer.
"I am going to pick Juliana Pena."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.

win by TKO
"Look for Harrison to utilize her physicality, her judo, her grappling to eventually get Pena to the ground, wear her out and eventually ground and pound her on route to a TKO victory and new bantamweight champion Kayla Harrison."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.

Odds comment: Harrison should be -300, not -600. Value on Peña by submission or finish. Finish prediction: decision win.
"I'm going to go with Kayla Harrison getting this one done. Decision win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.

Odds: Harrison -658, Peña +551. Zane thinks the odds are too wide, should be around -200.
"I have to still pick Harrison here."