Career Averages - Julianna Peña
Career Averages - Kayla Harrison
Julianna Peña
Kayla Harrison
Julianna Peña - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 59 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 35 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 30 of 54 | 55% | 17 of 39 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kayla Harrison | 22 of 30 | 73% | 12 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 8 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.
Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.
Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.
Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.
Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 1 | 92 of 317 | 29% | 112 of 345 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 92 of 260 | 35% | 123 of 308 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 5:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 17 of 60 | 28% | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 25 of 59 | 42% | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 18 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 8 of 34 | 23% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 18 of 33 | 54% | 35 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 1 | 26 of 84 | 30% | 26 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 16 of 67 | 23% | 18 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 35 of 115 | 30% | 35 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Raquel Pennington | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 92 of 317 | 29% | 57 of 277 | 29 of 33 | 6 of 7 | 88 of 308 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 92 of 260 | 35% | 82 of 248 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 90 of 256 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 17 of 60 | 28% | 12 of 53 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 17 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 25 of 59 | 42% | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 24 | 25% | 2 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 8 of 34 | 23% | 5 of 31 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 18 of 33 | 54% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Julianna Peña | 26 of 84 | 30% | 12 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
| Raquel Pennington | 16 of 67 | 23% | 14 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Julianna Peña | 35 of 115 | 30% | 26 of 105 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 113 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Raquel Pennington | 27 of 85 | 31% | 24 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.
Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.
Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.
Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.
Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.
The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.
Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 60 of 154 | 38% | 130 of 239 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 3 | 85 of 152 | 55% | 126 of 201 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 11:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 31 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 3 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 24 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 | |
| 4 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 33 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 34 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 | |
| 5 | Amanda Nunes | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 20 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 4:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Nunes | 60 of 154 | 38% | 54 of 144 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 59 of 151 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 85 of 152 | 55% | 67 of 128 | 10 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 57 of 117 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 34 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Nunes | 21 of 51 | 41% | 20 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 25 of 47 | 53% | 17 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Nunes | 25 of 66 | 37% | 21 of 59 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 19 of 48 | 39% | 13 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Nunes | 6 of 21 | 28% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 14 of 23 | 60% | 12 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 9 | |
| 4 | Amanda Nunes | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 16 of 20 | 80% | 15 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 | |
| 5 | Amanda Nunes | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 11 of 14 | 78% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
Big Brady picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round submission. He believes Nunes is better everywhere and that the first fight was a one-off due to injury or motivation issues. He expects Nunes to finish early, but if it extends, he has concerns about her cardio. He is not betting this fight.
Cody believes Peña is the right pick because she already exposed Nunes' cardio and quit rate. He notes Nunes has suspect cardio, has shown red flags in fights against Germaine de Randamie and Felicia Spencer, and may be unmotivated after becoming a multi-millionaire and mother. He also points out that Peña is durable, pressures well, and the odds (+245) are too juicy to pass up given she just choked Nunes out. He expects Peña to win again, possibly taking a bit longer this time.
Daniel argues that Julianna Peña's ability to stand up to the bully and absorb Nunes' power is the key factor. He notes that Peña's iron jaw and willpower broke Nunes mentally in the first fight, causing her to tap to a choke that wasn't locked in. He believes Nunes has a history of struggling when opponents don't back down, citing the Cat Zingano fight and the Valentina Shevchenko fights. He acknowledges Nunes could win via calf kicks or a submission, but he trusts Peña's heart and durability. He also points out that long-reigning champions rarely regain their belt in immediate rematches, citing a 11-2 record for the new champion.
Preet leans Nunes to win but won't lay -260; instead he likes the over 2.5 rounds at +100. He expects a more cautious, methodical fight that goes into the later rounds, noting that rematches of first-round finishes often go the distance. He thinks Nunes will be more disciplined and use leg kicks and combinations, but Peña's durability and pressure could extend the fight.
Paul picks Peña as well, citing the narrative that Nunes emptied her tank early in the first fight and quit. He thinks Nunes can win a striking match if she paces herself, but he's terrified to bet the fight. He notes that Peña is super durable and that the odds (+245) are attractive. He compares it to Ronda Rousey's loss to Holly Holm, where people still believed in Rousey, but here Peña already beat Nunes.
The MMA Guru predicts Julianna Peña wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round four. He expects Nunes to win the first two rounds with takedowns and jabs, but Peña will threaten submissions throughout. In round four, Peña times a takedown, passes to half guard, takes the back, and chokes Nunes out.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 58 of 112 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 79 of 135 | 58% | 90 of 147 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 22 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 36 of 85 | 42% | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Amanda Nunes | 0 | 74 of 115 | 64% | 74 of 115 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 46 of 99 | 46% | 36 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 11 | 44 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Amanda Nunes | 79 of 135 | 58% | 69 of 122 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 78 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 10 of 14 | 71% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Amanda Nunes | 5 of 20 | 25% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 36 of 85 | 42% | 32 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Amanda Nunes | 74 of 115 | 64% | 64 of 103 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 73 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is very confident in Amanda Nunes winning early, likely by first-round submission. He notes that Nunes is the GOAT and has advantages everywhere: striking, grappling, and cardio. Peña has poor takedown defense (23%) and was submitted by GDR, which is concerning. Nunes can finish by knockout or submission, and Brady expects a quick finish.
Daniel Levi picks Amanda Nunes to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Peña's striking is sloppy and she has been submitted in two of her last four fights. Levi believes Nunes will establish her jab and calf kicks, and when Peña shoots a sloppy takedown, Nunes will sprawl and lock in a d'arce or anaconda choke. He thinks Peña's trash talk will motivate Nunes to make a statement.
Nunes is the far superior fighter and should win, but the method is uncertain. Peña will try to grapple, which could slow the fight and push it past 1.5 rounds. Nunes has KO power, but Peña's durability and grappling could extend the fight. The over 1.5 rounds is a lean, but Nunes inside the distance is the most likely outcome.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Nunes to win by first-round TKO, dismissing Julianna Peña's chances. He criticizes Peña's striking technique and notes she was submitted by a standing guillotine against Jermaine de Randamie. He believes Nunes is on a different level in strength and skill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 140 of 192 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Sara McMann | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 28 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 7:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 5 of 20 | 25% | 37 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sara McMann | 0 | 12 of 30 | 40% | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 70 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Sara McMann | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 20 of 27 | 74% | 33 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Sara McMann | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 38 of 76 | 50% | 27 of 65 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 57 | 10 of 10 | 8 of 9 |
| Sara McMann | 21 of 54 | 38% | 10 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 5 of 20 | 25% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sara McMann | 12 of 30 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Sara McMann | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 20 of 27 | 74% | 15 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
| Sara McMann | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Sara McMann by decision, citing her wrestling advantage and Peña's poor takedown defense (28%). He notes McMann lands 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy. He expects McMann to control Peña on the ground for at least two rounds. He is not confident enough to bet but leans towards McMann.
Daniel Levi picks Sara McMann, highlighting her superior wrestling and power. He criticizes Julianna Peña's poor takedown defense (28%) and lack of submissions. Levi believes McMann can dominate with top control and avoid Peña's comeback attempts, as long as she stays focused for 15 minutes.
McMann is the better wrestler and should be able to get takedowns and control Peña on the ground. Peña has poor takedown defense and her jiu-jitsu off her back is not great. However, McMann is 40 years old and has cardio issues, which is a concern. I think McMann grinds out a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet on her.
The MMA Guru picks Sara McMann to win by controlling Peña on the ground with top control. He criticizes Peña's submission game, noting she hasn't submitted anyone of note and has been submitted herself. He believes McMann's wrestling and top control will be effective, especially since women's fights are not stood up quickly. He predicts a 30-27 decision via ground control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine de Randamie | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 57 of 119 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 27 of 91 | 29% | 58 of 125 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germaine de Randamie | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 12 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Germaine de Randamie | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 30 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 | |
| 3 | Germaine de Randamie | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 16 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germaine de Randamie | 37 of 91 | 40% | 32 of 86 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Julianna Peña | 27 of 91 | 29% | 19 of 79 | 7 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 75 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germaine de Randamie | 20 of 58 | 34% | 18 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 8 of 43 | 18% | 7 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Germaine de Randamie | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Julianna Peña | 11 of 23 | 47% | 6 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | |
| 3 | Germaine de Randamie | 11 of 24 | 45% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 8 of 25 | 32% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans towards Germaine de Randamie to win by decision. He notes the striking discrepancy favors de Randamie, and while Peña's path is takedowns, he thinks de Randamie can stop them. He is worried about cage control but expects the fight to stay on the feet.
Daniel picks de Randamie, emphasizing the massive striking gap and Peña's ugly stand-up. He believes de Randamie will clip Peña coming in and possibly knock her out, similar to the Aspen Ladd fight. He acknowledges concern if Peña gets on top but thinks de Randamie's takedown defense has improved and she will pull the trigger.
The host picks Peña as the underdog, believing her wrestling and trip takedowns will be effective against de Randamie's takedown defense. He notes that de Randamie has struggled against grapplers like Nunes and that Peña's style is similar. He predicts a decision win for Peña and thinks the line should be closer to -120.
The Guru picks Germaine de Randamie, believing she can survive on the ground and will keep the fight standing to beat Peña with leg kicks and eventually finish by TKO. He notes Peña couldn't submit Nico Montano and thinks de Randamie is too big and dangerous.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 45 of 90 | 50% | 108 of 158 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Nicco Montaño | 0 | 38 of 79 | 48% | 59 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 6:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicco Montaño | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 25 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:07 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 42 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Nicco Montaño | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 52 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Nicco Montaño | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 17 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 45 of 90 | 50% | 32 of 73 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 21 of 64 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 17 |
| Nicco Montaño | 38 of 79 | 48% | 13 of 50 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 19 | 26 of 57 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 9 of 19 | 47% | 4 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicco Montaño | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 6 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 16 of 27 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Nicco Montaño | 13 of 22 | 59% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | |
| 3 | Julianna Peña | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Nicco Montaño | 14 of 32 | 43% | 5 of 23 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 46 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 27 of 35 | 77% | 78 of 99 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 46 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 21 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 32 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentina Shevchenko | 13 of 17 | 76% | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Julianna Peña | 27 of 35 | 77% | 2 of 5 | 22 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 | 25 of 30 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valentina Shevchenko | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Julianna Peña | 20 of 24 | 83% | 0 of 0 | 17 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Valentina Shevchenko | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Julianna Peña | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
Kayla Harrison - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 59 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 24 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 22 of 30 | 73% | 35 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julianna Peña | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 30 of 54 | 55% | 17 of 39 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julianna Peña | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Kayla Harrison | 8 of 24 | 33% | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Julianna Peña | 3 of 13 | 23% | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kayla Harrison | 22 of 30 | 73% | 12 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 8 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.
Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.
Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.
Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.
Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 24 of 61 | 39% | 67 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 55 of 94 | 58% | 98 of 149 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 7:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 37 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 24 of 61 | 39% | 12 of 38 | 4 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 55 of 94 | 58% | 34 of 69 | 14 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 19 of 50 | 15 of 17 | 21 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 17 of 27 | 62% | 7 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 15 of 35 | 42% | 8 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kayla Harrison | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Vieira | 23 of 32 | 71% | 19 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harrison (-800), Vieira (+550)
Round 1
Even though she is currently ranked higher than her opponent, Vieira (14-3, 8-3 UFC) finds herself as a massive betting underdog at around +700 against enormous favorite Harrison (17-1, 1-0 UFC). Anything can happen in this glorious sport, and it often does. This grappling-centric affair will draw oversight from referee Marc Goddard, and the main card commences as the bantamweights touch ‘em up. Vieira flicks out a jab towards the jittery Harrison, and she gets knocked back by a left hand. Vieira reaches out with her right hand, and chants in support of her opponent rain down in the form of “USA!” Harrison does not channel this energy immediately, taking to the center of the cage and checking a low kick. Harrison kicks her to the chest, and Vieira skirts out the outer edge of the cage. Harrison tries to hit a trip, and Vieira slips away. Harrison fires off a high kick, and Vieira blocks it as the judoka stumbles. Harrison springs back to her feet and grasps Vieira around the waist, delivering knees to the body as Vieira tries to catch them fruitlessly. Harrison goes for a knee up top, and she hunts for a few trips to no avail. Harrison slams a knee in the ribs, and she uses her other to smack the Brazilian in the face with it. Goddard asks for more activity, and the audience turns on the ladies as they spend a lot of time in the clinch. Vieira tries to escape, and she blocks a knee and wings as right hand that bounces off the guard. Harrison checks another kick and parries a body kick, and she returns fire with her own kick to the stomach. Harrison sticks and moves with a low kick and one high, and Vieira swings and misses. This allows Harrison to close in on her, and she bowls Vieira over and ultimately lands in half guard. “USA” chants for Harrison rain down again, and she moves to mount and blasts Vieira in the face with an elbow. Vieira turns around to give up her back, and Harrison follows her every step of the way, battering her with elbows and punches. Vieira rides out the position under fire until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 2
The ladies meet in the middle, and they lob inaccurate strikes at one another. The first one landed is a low kick from the American, and she dances out of the way of a few long right hands from Vieira. Vieira sits down on a right hand to catch Harrison on the chin, and she gets tripped out with an inside low kick. Vieira stands back up without issue, and she parries a high kick. Vieira gets off her own leg kick, and she again tags Harrison with a right on the side of the head. Vieira digs a right to the body, and Harrison punches her way into a takedown attempt where she grabs the leg and puts her hand behind the neck to throw her foe down. Vieira fights it off and resets, blocking another head kick so she can jab Harrison in the ribs. Harrison shoots for a takedown and complains of an eye poke when Vieira posted off, and Harrison signals she is fine and does not need to pause. Vieira stops two more attempts and lands a few strikes, and Harrison plants her feet to connect with a heavy leg kick. Harrison pushes in tight to the clinch, and she is warned for holding the fence. Vieira breaks away, and Harrison plows forward with a knee to the body before clinching up again. While Vieira answers with an elbow, she cannot gain any space. Vieira rings her bell with another elbow, and Harrison pushes through it to get back up close and personal with knees to the body. Vieira blasts her with another elbow, and swelling has developed above Harrison’s right eye. Harrison digs several more knees to the body, and blood trickles out of the lump on her head. Goddard asks for more action, and he splits them up with 20 seconds left in the round. Vieira kicks low, gets checked, and pushes past a head kick to throw one back. The round ends with both ladies whiffing on kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison
Round 3
The ladies bump fists and then bow to one another to start the round. Harrison comes out aggressively, blocking a kick and shooting in for a double. Vieira breaks out of it and lobs back a one-two that busts open Harrison’s nose, with blood flowing immediately. Harrison tries for another takedown, and that fails again. Harrison gets off an inside leg kick that disrupts Vieira’s balance, and she pursues a takedown and comes up short. Harrison checks a calf kick and goes for a takedown that is nowhere close to landing. Vieira swipes a right to the body, and her guard is high to block a head kick. Harrison crashes forward for a takedown, lifts Vieira’s leg up and cannot get her down. On Harrison’s second attempt, she succeeds in wrenching the Brazilian to the mat. Vieira tries to tug on the fencing to stop it, but she is placed on her back with Harrison raining down elbows. Vieira pushes her back, and Harrison comes back to drill her with a left hand. Harrison stays busy with ground-and-pound, and Vieira pulls her toes on the wire to get to a more advantageous position. Harrison postures up to drop down three left hands, and Vieira throws her legs up for a high guard or a triangle choke. Harrison is wise to it and continues slamming down punches, and she brings down the hammer with a few high-amplitude elbows. Harrison passes to half guard, and she slices over to mount with 45 seconds to spare. Harrison slashes down with a few elbows, and Vieira clings to her tightly. Vieira turns over, and Harrison spins with her and wrenches on her neck with a brute force crank more than a choke. Harrison swirls over to half guard when Vieira turns, and she gets pushed to her feet as the match concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (29-28 Harrison)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harrison (30-27 Harrison)
The Official Result
Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Vieira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.
Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.
Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.
Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.
Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.
The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.
Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 51 of 71 | 71% | 68 of 91 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 56 of 73 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Holly Holm | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 12 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kayla Harrison | 2 of 12 | 16% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 51 of 71 | 71% | 46 of 66 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Holly Holm | 46 of 62 | 74% | 43 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 41 of 51 | |
| 2 | Kayla Harrison | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Holly Holm | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison despite weight cut concerns, believing her Judo and pressure will overwhelm Holm. He notes Holm's best chance is to stay on the outside and make it boring, but Harrison will eat a shot and get the takedown. He will watch weigh-ins before betting.
Cody acknowledges the weight cut concerns but believes Harrison will be strong and physical if she makes weight. He notes Holly Holm looked old in her last fight against Macy Chiasson, losing mobility and the ability to dart in and out. Harrison's wrestling and pressure should allow her to pin Holm against the cage and take her down. Cody thinks Holm at 42 is not what she used to be, and the UFC is setting up Harrison for a title shot. He picks Harrison to get the win, likely by controlling the fight on the ground.
Connor picks Harrison, noting that Holm's game is busted and her body seems broken. He acknowledges that Harrison has not faced elite competition but believes Holm's lack of functional tools outside the clinch will be her downfall. Connor expects Harrison to take Holm down and control the fight, though he admits Holm could stall in the clinch.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison, citing her superior grappling and physicality. He believes Harrison will take Holm down and control her on the ground, despite concerns about Harrison's weight cut and striking. Vreeland notes that Holm's output is low and she may clinch, which plays into Harrison's judo.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He expresses excitement to see Kayla Harrison in the UFC but criticizes the matchup, saying Holly Holm is on the decline at 42 years old and not active. He would have preferred a different opponent like Julianna Peña or Miesha Tate, but understands the decision due to lack of contenders. He does not state who he thinks will win.
Harrison's grappling will be too much for Holm. She will take the fight to the ground, smash Holm with elbows from top position, and eventually open a submission opportunity for a dominant finish. However, wait for weigh-ins due to Harrison's weight cut concerns.
Paul is hesitant due to the weight cut and Harrison's cardio issues in the past. He notes that if Harrison tires from a bad weight cut, Holm could take over. However, he acknowledges Holm's recent decline and thinks Harrison's wrestling will be effective early. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass, but ultimately picks Harrison because Holm's mobility has diminished and Harrison should be able to control the fight. He mentions the CF dot model (taking the big plus money on women's underdog) but decides to go with the favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison to dominate Holly Holm via decision. He highlights Harrison's superior wrestling and physicality, predicting she will take Holm down and control her on the ground. He questions Holm's motivation at age 42 and believes Harrison's strength and focus will be decisive.
Zane picks Harrison confidently, believing her clinch judo game will be too much for Holm. He notes that Holm is old (42), slow, and cannot pull the trigger anymore. Zane argues that Holm's only functional part of her game is the clinch, but she lacks the foot speed to keep Harrison at bay. He expects a dominant grappling performance from Harrison.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Kayla Harrison based on her Olympic judo credentials and physicality. He acknowledges Peña's toughness and ability to survive, but thinks relying on Kayla gassing is not a real strategy. He notes Kayla has fought 25 minutes before and can win the first three rounds. He finds the odds too wide and is hesitant to bet on Kayla.
Big Brady is confident in Kayla Harrison, citing her ability to take down anyone, including Ketlen Vieira who has great takedown defense. He notes Peña's 23% takedown defense and questions her motivation. He expects Harrison to get the fight to the ground, mix in ground and pound, and eventually submit Peña in the second round. He mentions weight cut concerns but thinks Harrison will dominate if she makes weight.
Connor picks Peña, citing the potential for Harrison to get anxious and gas if Peña pressures her. He notes that Peña's chaotic, relentless style could rattle Harrison, who has shown discomfort in striking exchanges. Connor admits it's a risky pick but thinks the funnier outcome and Peña's ability to exploit Harrison's unease make it plausible.
Harrison is much better than Peña in every area. She will utilize her physicality, judo, and grappling to get Peña to the ground, wear her out, and ground and pound her for a TKO victory, becoming the new bantamweight champion.
The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison by decision, citing her physicality and grappling advantage. He criticizes Peña's standup as abysmal and notes Harrison's strength will be too much. He acknowledges Harrison's standup is not great but believes she will out-grapple Peña. He thinks Peña is tough but difficult to finish, so he predicts a decision win. He notes the odds of -600 are too high, suggesting value on Peña by submission.
Zane picks Kayla Harrison, reasoning that Peña's takedown defense is poor and Harrison's judo and top control should be enough to dominate. He acknowledges Harrison's striking is awkward and she can panic, but believes Peña's wild aggression will play into Harrison's strengths. Zane notes the odds are too wide and the fight should be closer to -200.
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