UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 8"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tommy McMillen
9.87 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
5.54 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
83.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Manolo Zecchini
3.72 SLpM
28.0% Str. Acc.
12.82 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tommy McMillen - Fight History
SCHED vs Alberto Montes
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

AJ picks McMillen as his 'most confident value,' citing his wrestling, athleticism, and boxing advantage over Montes. He believes McMillen's pressure and power will break Montes, who has weak boxing. AJ expects a finish via KO or submission.

McMillan by finish +125 (plus money play); McMillan by KO +300 (Degen prop); McMillan in parlay
"Tommy McMillan's going to break Montes... I think McMillan's going to show his dog toughness and land some big shots."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

AJ picks Tommy McMillen to win, citing his freakish ability to escape submissions (as seen against David McGowan) and his wrestling base. He believes McMillen can turn the fight into a brawl and hurt Montes with wild shots. He expects a finish, possibly by KO, and notes McMillen's durability and pressure.

McMillen by finish, fight doesn't go distance, over 1.5 rounds (-145)
"I think Tommy McMillan's about to pull off the upset. I'm going Tommy McMillan to win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

AJ picks Tommy McMillen, citing his wild brawling style and boxing advantage. He notes McMillen is undefeated and a state champion wrestler, while Montes has a submission threat but questionable boxing. AJ expects a dog fight where McMillen's chaos and pressure could overwhelm Montes.

McMillen by KO +340, Montes by submission +250
"I'mma go to the violent all-American wild man Tommy the majority."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tommy McMillen

AJ picks Tommy McMillen, citing his size advantage (6'0" vs 5'7"), reach, and wrestling base. He believes McMillen's submission defense is good (survived a guillotine on Contender Series) and that Montes' boxing is untested. He thinks McMillen will brawl and pull out a win, possibly by KO.

McMillen by KO (+300), under 2.5 rounds (-230)
"I think McMillan's a gritty savage and it'll brawl. He pulls something wild out."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, reasoning that Tommy just needs to avoid the clinch and stay long to win, as Alberto Montes' takedowns are not very good. He trusts Tommy's training and believes he can win by striking. He also mentions a clothing sponsor connection but says the pick is based on skills.

"All he has to do to win is avoid the clinch. Don't be taken down and you'll win this fight. ... Tommy's gonna be the pick."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, comparing Alberto Montes to a past hype train (Joel Alvarez) that he faded correctly. He notes Tommy's toughness and volume, and that the betting line has shifted toward Tommy. He calls it a razor-thin fight and expects a finish either way.

Angelo says whoever wins will win by finish, and that Tommy will have insane volume.
"I'm going to pick Tommy. So I'm going to put Tommy in my lineup."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Alberto Montes

Big Brady picks Alberto Montes by submission, citing his front choke expertise. He believes Montes will find a grappling exchange and lock in a choke. He notes McMillan's poor striking defense and tendency to get into bad positions. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to go Montes by sub here. ... I'll say he wins by second round submission in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Cody likes McMillen's pressure and volume, comparing him to Nate Landwehr. He notes McMillen's wrestling background and durability, and believes his forward pressure will break Montes, who has been rocked before. He sees value at minus 150 compared to other heavy favorites on the card.

"I actually really like McMillan. It's not that like, oh, he's one of my favorite players of the week, but because of the value, like a minus 150 compared to a lot of these other guys are minus 300, - …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alberto Montes

Connor picks Montes, noting that McMillan is a 'complete trash fire' with no technique, just aggression and size. He compares McMillan to Roger Bowling, saying he tucks his head and trades. He believes Montes's counter-striking and front headlock series will be effective, and that McMillan's lack of defense will cost him. However, he acknowledges that McMillan's size and aggression could make it a messy fight.

"Montez had a much worse version of that in front of him in Ricky Tercios. And he did an excellent job of just making Tercios pay for every single busted entry."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Alberto Montes

Daniel Levi picks Alberto Montes to upset Tommy McMillen, believing Montes is more technical in all aspects of MMA. He notes McMillen leaves many openings and while McMillen has heart and pace, Montes has cleaner hands and dangerous front chokes. He expects Montes to capitalize on McMillen's defensive lapses.

"I think Montes is the superior fighter across the board. He's more technical in every aspect of MMA, and I think Montes is going to come out here and get this upset."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tommy McMillen

McMillen was bet on Monday at odds of 1.85 (-118), which the host considers great value. He believes McMillen is slightly better everywhere: tough, durable, high pace, difficult to take down, and a relentless volume striker. Montes is solid but may not match McMillen's aggression and output. The host advises against betting McMillen at current odds of 1.61 (-165) as the value is gone. He also bets over 1.5 rounds at 1.83 for 1 unit.

Bet McMillen moneyline at 1.85 (locked in Monday); also bet over 1.5 rounds at 1.83 for 1 unit.
"I like McMillan in this matchup because I think he's just a little bit better than Montes everywhere."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Lucrative James picks Tommy McMillen to win by knockout, citing McMillen's pressure and cardio advantage as the fight goes later. He notes that Montes looks good early but tends to slow down, and McMillen's submission defense should neutralize Montes's d'arce choke threat. He considers betting McMillen as an underdog but acknowledges the fight is volatile.

"I'll pick Tommy McMillan via knockout in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The host is not high on either fighter but believes McMillan's grappling can avoid Montes' chokes and that McMillan will dictate the pace on the feet and win by knockout.

knockout
"I believe McMillan has a good enough grappling game to avoid the Anaconda and D'arce choke of Montes. I believe that will lead to McMillan dictating the pace on the feet and I will lead to an eventual knockout for …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

McMillen's grappling background should help him neutralize Montes' front choke series, and he can create chaos in the striking realm to find a finish. Montes is a submission-or-bust fighter who may struggle if he can't get a quick tap. McMillen's pressure and durability should lead to a knockout win.

McMillen by knockout
"I think McMillan can create chaos in the striking realm that will eventually lead to a lot of issues to Montes and that could lead to a finish for McMillan as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Paul picks McMillen, citing his pressure game and ability to drown opponents before gassing himself. He acknowledges McMillen's mistakes but thinks his pace and wrestling will be too much for Montes, who relies on front headlock submissions. He believes McMillen can avoid bad positions and win.

"I got McMillan actually. I I understand that maybe he's not the most technical guy going and oh, he's just brawling and oh, his hands are low and oh no, he's overexerting too much energy and he might slow down …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The MMA Guru picks Tommy McMillan over Alberto Montes, citing McMillan's pressure, size advantage (6'0" vs 5'7"), and superior wrestling. He believes McMillan will wear on Montes and finish him with knees against the cage in round two. He notes McMillan's grit and ability to escape bad positions.

round two TKO, knees up against the cage
"I've got Tommy McMillan round two TKO here... I think McMillan's pressure and volume is going to start to wear on Montes. And I think McMillan's going to put him away in round two by TKO, knees up against the …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Alberto Montes

Zane picks Montes but is uncertain. He notes that Montes has good counter shots and a front headlock series that should handle McMillan's pressure. However, he acknowledges that McMillan is huge and aggressive, and that Montes can be too slick and reactive. He worries that McMillan's size and relentless pressure could overwhelm Montes, who is an undersized featherweight.

Odds: Montes +130 underdog, McMillan -150 favorite. Zane notes suspicious line movement possibly due to Sean O'Malley betting on McMillan.
"I started out saying Montez should run over McMillan, but I am very dubious about whether he actually will. McMillan size is a real ace in the hole for it."
KO R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tommy McMillen 1 74 of 134 55% 76 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Manolo Zecchini 0 20 of 61 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tommy McMillen 1 74 of 134 55% 76 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Manolo Zecchini 0 20 of 61 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tommy McMillen 74 of 134 55% 51 of 98 23 of 36 0 of 0 62 of 113 9 of 16 3 of 5
Manolo Zecchini 20 of 61 32% 14 of 48 6 of 12 0 of 1 19 of 56 1 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tommy McMillen 74 of 134 55% 51 of 98 23 of 36 0 of 0 62 of 113 9 of 16 3 of 5
Manolo Zecchini 20 of 61 32% 14 of 48 6 of 12 0 of 1 19 of 56 1 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, viewing it as a showcase fight set up by the UFC. He notes McMillen is exciting and tough but also very hitable. He believes McMillen will win spectacularly but warns he may be a busted prospect in future fights. Angelo does not see Manolo Zecchini winning.

"Tommy's the pick. I do not see Monolo winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Big Brady is extremely confident McMillen will win, calling Zecchini a 'bum' who hasn't fought in three years. He expects McMillen to take Zecchini down and submit him in the first round, as Zecchini has no ground game.

McMillen by first-round submission
"Tommy McMillan McMillan by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Cody picks McMillen by TKO, expecting him to overwhelm Zecchini with pressure and striking. He notes McMillen's wrestling and tenacity, and believes Zecchini will fold under pressure.

TKO prop
"I feel like this is a good spot for him to just kind of show off his striking, let his hands go, and then against an opponent that really can't take those shots should be able to crumple over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Connor agrees, calling it a prelim fodder fight. He notes that Zecchini has been finished in almost all his losses and only beats bad regional opponents. Connor believes McMillen will march through him and that the fight will build hype for McMillen as a violent finisher.

"McMillan will just go out there and fight like he's on fire and not learn anything from it because you'll march through him."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host says McMillen is a huge favorite but unplayable due to terrible odds. He notes McMillen is tough and well-rounded, but the odds are too aggressive. He suggests only Zecchini is worth a bet as a dog, but he doesn't take it because McMillen is better everywhere. He will look for live betting opportunities.

Will look for live betting opportunities.
"So this is obviously dog or pass. If you want to bet this fight, you must take Zakini. H. But just know if you do that, he is facing a guy that is better than him everywhere."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

James picks Tommy McMillen to win easily, predicting a round one submission via front choke. He notes McMillen's hype but questions his striking defense, though he believes Zecchini is not UFC-level and has been out since 2023. He expects McMillen's grappling to be the difference, possibly setting up a submission after hurting Zecchini on the feet.

Round 1 submission prediction
"I will actually call a front choke finish in round one for Tommy McMillan here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James mentions Tommy McMillon as a high prospect but does not give a pick for the fight. He only notes the matchup exists.

"We have a very high prospect, Tommy McMillon, on this card."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The host expects McMillen to win via submission, likely in the first round and a half, given his BJJ skills and Zecchini's layoff and unimpressive striking. He notes the UFC is giving McMillen a favorable matchup to push him. However, he has low confidence due to the heavy chalk and advises against parlaying such a short price.

McMillen by submission at -150; under 1.5 rounds
"I think McMillan wins. I think he eventually finds uh a submission opportunity and forces the tap from the Italian."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Paul picks McMillen by submission, noting his guillotine and rear-naked choke wins. However, he acknowledges Zecchini may not shoot takedowns, so McMillen might win by TKO instead.

submission prop
"McMillan by sub. Yeah, McMillan by whatever he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tommy McMillen

The MMA Guru confidently picks Tommy McMillen, highlighting his wrestling pedigree, striking similar to Sean O'Malley, and his dominant Contender Series win. He notes that Manolo Zecchini was easily finished by Morgan Charriere and expects McMillen to win by TKO or submission.

TKO or submission predicted
"I'm going to say that he wins this one by like guillotine or something... I'm going to go a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Zane picks McMillen, describing him as a wild man who fights like he doesn't care about winning or losing. He notes that Zecchini is a step down from McMillen's previous opponent and that Zecchini has poor pacing and technique. Zane believes McMillen's aggression will overwhelm Zecchini, who tends to go backwards and lose.

"Whoever goes backwards will lose and Zikini will be the one forced to go backwards."
Manolo Zecchini - Fight History
LOSS vs Tommy McMillen
KO R1 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Apr 04, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tommy McMillen 1 74 of 134 55% 76 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Manolo Zecchini 0 20 of 61 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tommy McMillen 1 74 of 134 55% 76 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Manolo Zecchini 0 20 of 61 32% 21 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tommy McMillen 74 of 134 55% 51 of 98 23 of 36 0 of 0 62 of 113 9 of 16 3 of 5
Manolo Zecchini 20 of 61 32% 14 of 48 6 of 12 0 of 1 19 of 56 1 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tommy McMillen 74 of 134 55% 51 of 98 23 of 36 0 of 0 62 of 113 9 of 16 3 of 5
Manolo Zecchini 20 of 61 32% 14 of 48 6 of 12 0 of 1 19 of 56 1 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, viewing it as a showcase fight set up by the UFC. He notes McMillen is exciting and tough but also very hitable. He believes McMillen will win spectacularly but warns he may be a busted prospect in future fights. Angelo does not see Manolo Zecchini winning.

"Tommy's the pick. I do not see Monolo winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Big Brady is extremely confident McMillen will win, calling Zecchini a 'bum' who hasn't fought in three years. He expects McMillen to take Zecchini down and submit him in the first round, as Zecchini has no ground game.

McMillen by first-round submission
"Tommy McMillan McMillan by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Cody picks McMillen by TKO, expecting him to overwhelm Zecchini with pressure and striking. He notes McMillen's wrestling and tenacity, and believes Zecchini will fold under pressure.

TKO prop
"I feel like this is a good spot for him to just kind of show off his striking, let his hands go, and then against an opponent that really can't take those shots should be able to crumple over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Connor agrees, calling it a prelim fodder fight. He notes that Zecchini has been finished in almost all his losses and only beats bad regional opponents. Connor believes McMillen will march through him and that the fight will build hype for McMillen as a violent finisher.

"McMillan will just go out there and fight like he's on fire and not learn anything from it because you'll march through him."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)

The host says McMillen is a huge favorite but unplayable due to terrible odds. He notes McMillen is tough and well-rounded, but the odds are too aggressive. He suggests only Zecchini is worth a bet as a dog, but he doesn't take it because McMillen is better everywhere. He will look for live betting opportunities.

Will look for live betting opportunities.
"So this is obviously dog or pass. If you want to bet this fight, you must take Zakini. H. But just know if you do that, he is facing a guy that is better than him everywhere."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)

James mentions Tommy McMillon as a high prospect but does not give a pick for the fight. He only notes the matchup exists.

"We have a very high prospect, Tommy McMillon, on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

James picks Tommy McMillen to win easily, predicting a round one submission via front choke. He notes McMillen's hype but questions his striking defense, though he believes Zecchini is not UFC-level and has been out since 2023. He expects McMillen's grappling to be the difference, possibly setting up a submission after hurting Zecchini on the feet.

Round 1 submission prediction
"I will actually call a front choke finish in round one for Tommy McMillan here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The host expects McMillen to win via submission, likely in the first round and a half, given his BJJ skills and Zecchini's layoff and unimpressive striking. He notes the UFC is giving McMillen a favorable matchup to push him. However, he has low confidence due to the heavy chalk and advises against parlaying such a short price.

McMillen by submission at -150; under 1.5 rounds
"I think McMillan wins. I think he eventually finds uh a submission opportunity and forces the tap from the Italian."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Paul picks McMillen by submission, noting his guillotine and rear-naked choke wins. However, he acknowledges Zecchini may not shoot takedowns, so McMillen might win by TKO instead.

submission prop
"McMillan by sub. Yeah, McMillan by whatever he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tommy McMillen

The MMA Guru confidently picks Tommy McMillen, highlighting his wrestling pedigree, striking similar to Sean O'Malley, and his dominant Contender Series win. He notes that Manolo Zecchini was easily finished by Morgan Charriere and expects McMillen to win by TKO or submission.

TKO or submission predicted
"I'm going to say that he wins this one by like guillotine or something... I'm going to go a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Zane picks McMillen, describing him as a wild man who fights like he doesn't care about winning or losing. He notes that Zecchini is a step down from McMillen's previous opponent and that Zecchini has poor pacing and technique. Zane believes McMillen's aggression will overwhelm Zecchini, who tends to go backwards and lose.

"Whoever goes backwards will lose and Zikini will be the one forced to go backwards."
KO (body kick and punches) R1 3:51 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Sep 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Morgan Charrière 1 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Manolo Zecchini 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Morgan Charrière 1 26 of 49 53% 26 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Manolo Zecchini 0 9 of 41 21% 9 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Morgan Charrière 26 of 49 53% 16 of 37 7 of 8 3 of 4 25 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 1
Manolo Zecchini 9 of 41 21% 5 of 30 1 of 4 3 of 7 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Morgan Charrière 26 of 49 53% 16 of 37 7 of 8 3 of 4 25 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 1
Manolo Zecchini 9 of 41 21% 5 of 30 1 of 4 3 of 7 9 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, citing his clinch work, cardio advantage, and ability to beat Manolo to the punch. He notes Manolo has more raw power but loops his punches. However, Angelo warns against betting at -260 on a UFC debut, calling it foolish.

"Morgan should have the cardio Advantage as well so he's gonna be the pick but minus 260 on a UFC debut fight seems foolish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Big Brady is confident in Charrière, citing his well-roundedness, toughness, and experience. He notes Zecchini's lower level of competition and potential cardio/durability concerns. He expects Charrière to win wherever the fight goes, likely by taking Zecchini down and finishing with ground and pound in the second round.

Charrière wins by second-round TKO
"I like Sharia here... give me Sherry to win this fight I'll say second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manolo Zecchini

Cody picks Zecchini as an underdog, citing Charrière's inconsistency and low output. He notes Charrière is a veteran with 30 fights but tends to be tentative and conservative. Zecchini comes forward, is willing to engage, and has finishing ability. Cody worries about French judges favoring Charrière but thinks Zecchini can win by pressuring and outworking him.

"I think I'm gonna take zucchini but like I don't feel great about this"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

Daniel Levi picks Morgan Charrière, highlighting his athleticism, calf kicks, and toughness. He recalls a fight where Charrière survived a rear triangle choke and then delivered vicious ground and pound. Levi notes that Charrière has close fights with lower-level opponents but believes the athleticism gap is massive here. He expects Charrière to win but is not interested at the steep price, saying there is no value.

"I do got to go with Morgan charier I do think he's got more upside but at this price I don't really see where the value is"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 2, 2023 (fight day)
Morgan Charrière

Lucrative James sees Morgan Charrière as a huge favorite and believes the line is warranted. He thinks Charrière can win wherever the fight goes, with advantages in both striking and grappling. He expects a TKO finish rather than a decision, noting that Charrière's opponent is low-level and that Charrière can dominate on the ground. He acknowledges Charrière's past losses but attributes them to good wrestlers, which Zecchini is not.

"I think he's going to have his way wherever he wants it honestly I think he can win in the Striking and in the grappling."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

I like Charrière here. The UFC is giving him a perfect layup opponent in Zecchini, who isn't anything special and has poor takedown defense. Charrière should be able to take the fight to the ground and control it. However, I have concerns about his cardio and he's more hype than talent in my opinion. I think he wins by decision, but I might throw him in a parlay.

"I like sharier here I think that sharier will you know I'm not huge on his money line I might have him throw him in a parlay or two but you know I just have issues about his cardio and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 30, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manolo Zecchini

Paul joins Cody on Zecchini, noting he doesn't step in front of Cody's dog picks. He mentions a prize picks prop of 44.5 significant strikes for Charrière, which he thinks is a pass because it would require a very low-output fight. Paul is not confident but follows the underdog trend.

"I'll join the zucchini front with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Morgan Charrière

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière by TKO, arguing that despite Charrière's losses to regional fighters not in the UFC, he has a strength of schedule advantage and is physically strong with good takedown defense. He believes Charrière has a massive power advantage and will finish Zecchini, though he admits Charrière doesn't deserve to be in the UFC.

"I'm gonna go Morgan charrier getting this one down by TKO"
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 29, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Angelo picks Tommy McMillen, viewing it as a showcase fight set up by the UFC. He notes McMillen is exciting and tough but also very hitable. He believes McMillen will win spectacularly but warns he may be a busted prospect in future fights. Angelo does not see Manolo Zecchini winning.

"Tommy's the pick. I do not see Monolo winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Big Brady is extremely confident McMillen will win, calling Zecchini a 'bum' who hasn't fought in three years. He expects McMillen to take Zecchini down and submit him in the first round, as Zecchini has no ground game.

McMillen by first-round submission
"Tommy McMillan McMillan by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Cody picks McMillen by TKO, expecting him to overwhelm Zecchini with pressure and striking. He notes McMillen's wrestling and tenacity, and believes Zecchini will fold under pressure.

TKO prop
"I feel like this is a good spot for him to just kind of show off his striking, let his hands go, and then against an opponent that really can't take those shots should be able to crumple over."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Connor agrees, calling it a prelim fodder fight. He notes that Zecchini has been finished in almost all his losses and only beats bad regional opponents. Connor believes McMillen will march through him and that the fight will build hype for McMillen as a violent finisher.

"McMillan will just go out there and fight like he's on fire and not learn anything from it because you'll march through him."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host says McMillen is a huge favorite but unplayable due to terrible odds. He notes McMillen is tough and well-rounded, but the odds are too aggressive. He suggests only Zecchini is worth a bet as a dog, but he doesn't take it because McMillen is better everywhere. He will look for live betting opportunities.

Will look for live betting opportunities.
"So this is obviously dog or pass. If you want to bet this fight, you must take Zakini. H. But just know if you do that, he is facing a guy that is better than him everywhere."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 1, 2026 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

James mentions Tommy McMillon as a high prospect but does not give a pick for the fight. He only notes the matchup exists.

"We have a very high prospect, Tommy McMillon, on this card."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

James picks Tommy McMillen to win easily, predicting a round one submission via front choke. He notes McMillen's hype but questions his striking defense, though he believes Zecchini is not UFC-level and has been out since 2023. He expects McMillen's grappling to be the difference, possibly setting up a submission after hurting Zecchini on the feet.

Round 1 submission prediction
"I will actually call a front choke finish in round one for Tommy McMillan here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

The host expects McMillen to win via submission, likely in the first round and a half, given his BJJ skills and Zecchini's layoff and unimpressive striking. He notes the UFC is giving McMillen a favorable matchup to push him. However, he has low confidence due to the heavy chalk and advises against parlaying such a short price.

McMillen by submission at -150; under 1.5 rounds
"I think McMillan wins. I think he eventually finds uh a submission opportunity and forces the tap from the Italian."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Paul picks McMillen by submission, noting his guillotine and rear-naked choke wins. However, he acknowledges Zecchini may not shoot takedowns, so McMillen might win by TKO instead.

submission prop
"McMillan by sub. Yeah, McMillan by whatever he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2026 (fight day)
Tommy McMillen

The MMA Guru confidently picks Tommy McMillen, highlighting his wrestling pedigree, striking similar to Sean O'Malley, and his dominant Contender Series win. He notes that Manolo Zecchini was easily finished by Morgan Charriere and expects McMillen to win by TKO or submission.

TKO or submission predicted
"I'm going to say that he wins this one by like guillotine or something... I'm going to go a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tommy McMillen

Zane picks McMillen, describing him as a wild man who fights like he doesn't care about winning or losing. He notes that Zecchini is a step down from McMillen's previous opponent and that Zecchini has poor pacing and technique. Zane believes McMillen's aggression will overwhelm Zecchini, who tends to go backwards and lose.

"Whoever goes backwards will lose and Zikini will be the one forced to go backwards."