Career Averages - Alessandro Costa
Career Averages - Stewart Nicoll
Alessandro Costa - Fight History
The host picks Costa, mostly because of Schnell's durability issues, noting that Costa has power and could knock Schnell out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Schnell might outpoint Costa due to higher volume. He mentions that Costa is taking the fight on short notice, which adds uncertainty.
AJ is extremely confident in Costa, calling him a lock. He cites Costa's well-rounded skills, including Muay Thai, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, and notes Schnell's decline with 1-4 in last five. AJ expects Costa to finish Schnell, likely by submission in round one, and sees this as a one-sided affair.
Angelo is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling it the easiest breakdown on the card. He notes Costa's power, speed, and leg kicks, while highlighting Matt Schnell's horrendous chin. He believes Costa will knock Schnell out, and says -550 is a 'deal of a lifetime' that will move to -1400 by fight night.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by first round submission. He believes Matt Schnell is washed up, has poor durability, and can't grapple anymore. He sees Costa's power and BJJ as major threats, and expects Schnell to either get knocked out or submitted quickly.
Matt Schnell has a terrible chin, having been knocked out or submitted multiple times. Alessandro Costa has power and will likely knock him out in the first round. Schnell is 36 and has considered retirement, while Costa is a solid finisher.
Cody confidently picks Costa, citing Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Costa has power and multiple paths to victory, including knockout or ground-and-pound. Schnell's chin and tendency to fade make him a risky bet.
Alessandro Costa is picked because Matt Schnell's chin is unreliable and Costa has power in his hands. Schnell cannot sit in the pocket with Costa or he will get knocked out. Costa also has grappling skills. The host sees no clear path for Schnell and expects Costa to win inside the distance, likely by knockout.
Costa is a much better fighter at this point, with power and solid grappling. Schnell has a glass chin and has been knocked out repeatedly. Costa should finish him in the first round.
Costa is a BJJ black belt with power and strong grappling. Schnell has poor submission defense and gets finished often. Costa should dominate and eventually lock up a submission. The Costa by submission prop at +500 is a good play.
Paul picks Costa by knockout in round 2, noting Costa's power and Schnell's chin issues. He expects Costa to land eventually, as Schnell cannot withstand pressure. He avoids betting the moneyline due to high price but likes the KO prop.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 1 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 47 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 43 of 89 | 48% | 26 of 67 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 41 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 47 of 99 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 12 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 27 of 59 | 45% | 13 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 20 of 40 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)
Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.
Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.
The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.
James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.
The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.
Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.
Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 12 of 56 | 21% | 14 of 59 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 77 of 131 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 10 of 48 | 20% | 10 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 47 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 12 of 56 | 21% | 7 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 13 | 12 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 42 of 95 | 44% | 34 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 10 of 48 | 20% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 20 of 57 | 35% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 12 of 19 | 63% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 | |
| 3 | Alessandro Costa | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-450); Coria (+350)
Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Coria opens up with a leg kick and Costa answers. coria with an inside leg kick. Costa kicks the body. Coria is switching stances in the early going. A jab lands for the Houston native. A slick 1-2 from Coria tags Costa, who sahkes it off. Coria moves in and out with a jab, then blocks a high kick. Costa finds an opening and alnds an overhand. coria continues to work behind hhis jab. Costa whiffs on an overhand. Coria follows a jab by just missing on a head kick. A counter left connects for Coria, who follows with a leg kick. Costa is winging power punches, and he lands a glancing overhand right. Coria attacks the lead leg of his foe. Costa attacks the body with a kick. Costa catches Coria with a combination. Coria lands a body kick and then a jab. Costa blocks a head kick but it smacks off the forearms. Coria extends a combo and lands multiple punches. Costa looks for a takedown late in the round but Coria keeps his footing. Coria blocks a body kick.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 2
They trade jabs early. They crash into the clinch and Coria takes his man down when Costa jumps into his arms. Coria is inside the Brazilian’s guard. Costa is active from his back, throwing his legs up and looking for submissions. Coria finds an opening and drops a couple heavy elbows. Costa pushes off the fence with his legs and Coria is forced to defend a leg lock. Costa scrambles to his feet and Coria shoves him into the wire. Costa is threatening with a kimura with his back to the fence. Coria lifts Costa and briefly sets him down. Costa rolls and transitions to the back. Moments later he suplexes the newcomer to the mat while maintaining back control, secures a body triangle and looks to find openings for a rear-naked choke. Costa is working on a neck crank now. Coria is able to turn and scramble back into top position, where he drops an elbow with a minute to go. Coria finds room for another elbow, then stands over his opponent before diving back in with punches. Another elbow lands from top position for Coria, who has recovered to finish the round strong.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 3
The broadcast team reveals that Costa struggled to his corner between rounds due to an apparent foot injury. Coria probes with his jab. Coria backs Costa up and lands a right hand. Costa shoots out of desperation and Coria sprawls relatively easily. Costa doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, and
Coria tees off with a barrage of punches against the fence. Costa slumps to the floor and Coria is able to connect with a few more blows before Miragliotta shoves him away.
An impressive UFC debut for the Fury FC veteran. Costa, meanwhile, seems to indicate that his injured pinkie toe hindered him down the stretch. As it turns out, Costa’s corner was throwing in the towel around the same time Miragliotta was calling off the bout.
The Official Result
Alden Coria def. Alessandro Costa via TKO (Punches) R3 0:47
Angelo picks Costa, noting he is a solid striker with good takedown defense and real power, though he can be low volume. He thinks Coria is a busy grappler but may be too slow and hittable. He says the odds at -350 seem wide for a competitive fight, but still goes with Costa.
Big Brady picks Costa due to his power, BJJ black belt, and level of competition faced. He notes Costa is hittable with a questionable chin but has only lost to top flyweights. He expects Costa to win by any method, possibly submission if the fight goes to the ground, but acknowledges the line is steep at -430.
Costa is favored due to his leg kicks, BJJ black belt, and power, but the host is skeptical of the big chalky line. Despite this, he expects Costa to put together enough work to win on the scorecards, though not confidently.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Alessandro Costa, noting his experience against top flyweights like Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. He describes Costa as explosive, dangerous, and powerful, while dismissing Alden Coria as a short-notice debutant who hasn't beaten anyone of note. He gives Coria only a 1 in 10 chance of an upset.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 1 | 46 of 86 | 53% | 60 of 104 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Kevin Borjas | 0 | 18 of 56 | 32% | 18 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Kevin Borjas | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 | 30 of 41 | 73% | 44 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Kevin Borjas | 0 | 3 of 18 | 16% | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 46 of 86 | 53% | 32 of 66 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 20 of 28 |
| Kevin Borjas | 18 of 56 | 32% | 12 of 45 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 16 of 45 | 35% | 9 of 33 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Kevin Borjas | 15 of 38 | 39% | 10 of 31 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 30 of 41 | 73% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 27 |
| Kevin Borjas | 3 of 18 | 16% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-125), Borjas (+105)
Round 1
The UFC is back for its annual trip to Brazil, and it stacked the deck for the home nation by putting one Brazilian combatant against a foreigner in every bout. As a result, betting lines are lopsided towards the locals, with those from Brazil favored in 10 of the 13 fights. As most know, anything can and often does happen in MMA once the cage door closes, so it’s time to buckle up. The first of a baker’s dozen matchups comes in the flyweight division between two South American men that could both use a win. Costa (13-4, 1-2 UFC) has had the misfortune of facing two elite 125ers in his three walks to the Octagon thus far, while Borjas (9-2, 0-1 UFC) ran into the Burmese wall that was Josh Van in his promotional debut. The two will receive oversight from referee Joao Claudio Soares in this curtain jerker, and they get after it following a swift touch of gloves. The two flyweights measure one another early, trying to draw the other out with little more than movement and a pump-fake or two. Borjas paws out a range-finding jab, and Costa suddenly fires back with a one-two and a low kick. Costa surges ahead, stringing together a number of punches that bounce off and through the guard of his opponent. Costa whips a kick low to intercept Borjas coming in at him, and he stalks his man down. The Brazilian swarms forward, and Borjas shifts and rolls to avoid the damage. Costa changes levels for a takedown shot from a wide distance, and “El Gallo Negro” shucks it off before it turns into anything. Borjas paws out a few jabs, and he finds himself in a brief slugfest that gets his jaw jacked. Costa stands back to admire his work, and then blazes ahead to hammer his man with three punches on the side of the head and they crash heads together. A cut has opened up above Borjas’ ear, but he does not acknowledge it and tries to counter the advancing Costa with two flying knees. Costa shrugs them both off and lets his hand fly, and sporadic chants for “uh vai morrer” rain down from the fans. Costa takes the energy of the crowd and rifles off a jab that knocks Borjas off his feet, and he lets Borjas recover so that he can ring his bell with a pair of hooks. Borjas stumbles and gets back to his feet to leap in the air with a knee, and the round ends with Costa returning fire with his own flying knee that slams into the chest. Borjas throws his foe to the floor, and the round ends.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The two men bump fists to open the round, and Costa gets right back to his advancing attack. Costa lays into his man with punches to the head, and he mixes up one to the body that appears to hurt the Peruvian. Costa sees and opening and unleashes a number of leg kicks that do serious damage and make Borjas limp. Borjas tries to tough it out, but Costa sweeps him off his feet with vicious low kicks. Costa chains a few punches together as Borjas backs himself against the fence, and he knocks Borjas to the ground again with a mighty calf kick. Seeing the finish might be around the corner, “Nono” leaps on top and drops jackhammering fists as Soares takes a close eye on the action. Borjas tries to scramble and nearly gives up his back, and as he turns over, Costa jumps on top of him into full mount.
Costa finishes the job with a long series of hammerfists and punches, and Soares has seen enough and waves off the fight to put Brazil on the board first.
This is an important win for the Brazilian, who evens his UFC record to .500 while also evening his distribution of knockouts to submissions at six apiece.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Kevin Borjas R2 1:35 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo sees this as a 50/50 fight but leans Costa due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Costa's low volume striking and power, but believes Costa's takedowns will be the difference, similar to Borjas' loss to Joshua Van. He explicitly says he's not betting on it because he doesn't trust Costa.
Big Brady sees Costa as having more ways to win, including power on the feet and a grappling advantage. He notes Costa's BJJ black belt and slick ground game, though it hasn't been shown in the UFC yet. He predicts Costa will get the fight to the mat and secure a submission in the second round.
Cody picks Costa, citing his powerful low kicks, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Borjas is a brawler with poor cardio and takedown defense. Cody expects Costa to land heavy shots and grind out a win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Costa, citing his experience against top competition (Albazi, Erceg), Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and home crowd advantage. He notes that Borjas has volume but less experience at the UFC level. He believes Costa's grappling is a key advantage and even took a small bet on Costa by submission at +550.
Borjas had a hot start in his UFC debut but blew his wad too early. He is expected to learn from that mistake and put on power striking pressure against Costa, eventually finding a knockout within two rounds.
Paul picks Costa, emphasizing his takedown defense and power. He notes Borjas leaves openings and has been taken down easily. Paul expects Costa to land damaging blows and win.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa based on athleticism, speed, power, and strength, especially against the cage. He notes Costa's rough UFC run but highlights competitive rounds against top flyweights like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. He predicts a TKO in the second round, citing Costa's finishing potential and power advantage over the relatively unknown Kevin Borjas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 74 of 125 | 59% | 104 of 162 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 6:29 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 54 of 97 | 55% | 85 of 129 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 37 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 33 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 36 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 74 of 125 | 59% | 41 of 87 | 25 of 30 | 8 of 8 | 43 of 91 | 26 of 28 | 5 of 6 |
| Alessandro Costa | 54 of 97 | 55% | 31 of 70 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 76 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 31 of 54 | 57% | 18 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alessandro Costa | 16 of 36 | 44% | 6 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Alessandro Costa | 24 of 42 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 19 of 26 | 73% | 8 of 14 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Alessandro Costa | 14 of 19 | 73% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Costa (+140)
Round 1
Crashing into the UFC in June with a huge upset win over a ranked David Dvorak, Australia’s Erceg (10-1, 1-0 UFC) hopes his sophomore effort is just as solid as his UFC debut. Looking to halt his momentum will be Costa (13-3, 1-1 UFC), a former Lux Fight League champ who holds eight first-round finishes on his resume. They will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the preliminary headliner commences as the two flyweights touch gloves. Erceg takes to the center of the cage, and he slowly works his way forward without throwing much of note. When Costa aims a kick low, Erceg counters with a piston-like right hand. Erceg tosses out a leg kick, and a second kick makes Costa spring into action with a hard right hand. Costa flicks out a jab, and Erceg pushes out one back and kicks the inside and outside of his leg. When Costa kicks back, Erceg has a check ready. Costa’s big right hand bounces off the guard, and he swings two hooks as Erceg bears down on him. Erceg gets backed off, but still connects with a power jab. Costa flails long and connects with part of an overhand right, but Erceg is able to move with it to take some of the sting out of it. Erceg prods out his jab and snaps the head back with a right hand, and Costa kicks him in response. Costa rings Erceg’s bell with an overhand right, and he tries to chain another and is met with a knee up the middle and a right hook. Erceg splits the guard with a one-two, and he puts three together and sways to the side to make Costa hurl punches at nothing but air. Erceg goes between the gloves with an uppercut, and he lines up a huge right hand and busts Costa in the face. Costa attempts to take him down as he is rattled, and Erceg spins him around and climbs straight into full mount. Costa turns to his side, and Erceg snatches up a rear-naked choke. Costa is in huge trouble but manages to gut out the submission, as he turns his body and keeps moving. Erceg tries to trap him with another choke attempt, but Costa explodes to get back to his feet, and he pushes the Aussie to the wire. The round ends with both men attempting inaccurate front kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
To start off the second stanza, the Australian fighter again claims the middle of the Octagon and moves forward, to force Costa to immediately backpedal. Erceg launches a head kick that pounds into the guard, and he shoves Costa and bounces him off the fence. Costa goes for a home run right hand, and Erceg evades it by a matter of millimeters. Costa is a man on a mission, looking for giant strikes, and he connects with numerous huge strikes as Erceg takes them or tries to keep moving. Costa drives a knee up the middle, and Erceg recovers and returns to put pressure on his opponent. Costa winds up with a hefty leg kick, and a subsequent overhand right stings Erceg again. Costa swings with a mighty right hook once more, and he shoots in low for a single to catch Erceg unaware. Erceg defends himself by getting pushed back to the wall, and Costa drags him down and shifts himself to half guard in a hurry. Costa tries to smash his foe with ground-and-pound, but he throws himself off-balance and allows Erceg to sneak out the back door and climb back to his feet, where he pushes Costa into the wall from behind. Erceg lowers himself down to grip hold of a single, and Costa gets away with a fence grab to stay upright. Erceg knees the body a few times while tightly pressed on his adversary, and Costa jumps guard for an armbar out of nowhere. Erceg defends himself smoothly and lets them both stand, but he continues to press his weight on his aggressive opponent. Costa pushes off, and he lets his hands go to knock Erceg back. As Erceg is wobbled, Costa tackles him to the canvas. The Brazilian turns over to pursue an armlock, and Erceg flips him over and grinds him with elbows on the face until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
The flyweights have reached Round 3, and Erceg is quick to resume the trend where he started the first two rounds pushing the pace early. Erceg backs Costa off, threatening knees and level changes, and Costa blocks a jump knee that is aimed at his dome. Erceg pushes him up to the fencing, and he fights off a trip to keep on his feet. Erceg looks to drag his man down, but Costa awkwardly keeps his balance and may have grabbed the cage again. Erceg transitions to a single, and Costa belts him with an elbow to back him off. Costa comes up short with a sweeping low kick, and Erceg jabs him multiple times in the face before timing a clean level change. Costa is on the mat for barely a second before jumping back up, and Erceg squeezes him up against the fencing to control him further. Costa gets off a solid right hand to back off the Aussie, and Erceg gathers his thoughts and pushes him back to the wall. Erceg looks to tie the legs up and trip Costa down, and Costa hits his knees and powers back up without batting an eye. Costa attempts his own far-side trip that does not succeed, and Erceg elbows him and eats two knees in the belly for his effort. Costa turns him around and sells out for a single, and he dumps Erceg down but cannot control him. Erceg is upright before Costa knows it, and he is pushing the Brazilian against the wall to run out the clock. Costa frames off with knees to the body, and Erceg responds in kind. Erceg cannot get his foe down, and he settles for clinch control until the final horn wraps the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.
Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.
Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.
Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 | 65 of 91 | 71% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 | 54 of 77 | 70% | 54 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 14 of 37 | 37% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 65 of 91 | 71% | 37 of 58 | 12 of 15 | 16 of 18 | 54 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 14 of 36 | 38% | 6 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 54 of 77 | 70% | 27 of 45 | 12 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 53 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 11 of 14 | 78% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-255), Flick (+215)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims, flyweights of Flick (16-6, 1-1 UFC) and Costa (12-3, 0-1 UFC) square off. “The Brick” has never before landed a knockout, with 88% of his wins coming by tapout, while Costa has never once been submitted. Something might have to give, and referee Keith Peterson is here for it if it does. The fight opens with a no nonsense glove touch, and Flick paws out after with a front kick. Costa slams a leg kick with emphasis on the calf, and Flick tries to get him back with another front kick only to miss. Costa stuffs a takedown after checking a kick, and he pushes Flick away and nails him with another calf kick. Flick jabs with the ball of his foot, and he ducks down low for an overhand right. Costa drills a kick to the body, and he starts chaining body shots together as Flick can do nothing but shell up. Costa pins two punches on Flick’s head before Flick realizes he has been struck, and he circles away while Flick is calculating the damage. Costa aims another left to the body, and Flick kicks low and just buzzes the hair with a high kick to follow. Costa backs Flick off with a one-two, and he absorbs a front kick to the midsection. Costa delivers another kick to the lead wheel, and he doubles up on it. Costa strings three punches together and kicks the calf, and the kick knocks Flick clean off his feet. Flick falls to his back, and Costa kicks at it once more before letting “The Brick” up. Flick stands, and he keeps that left leg back, as it is totally compromised. Costa decides to kick the other leg, and when Flick swaps again, he chops at it once more to nearly topple Flick over. “Nono” smashes Flick’s calf one more time, and Flick dives forward with a takedown. Flick cannot secure it, and he looks for a leglock that Costa shakes off and lets him get up. Flick is unable to plant on his leg, and Costa throws him down to the floor. Costa lines up several punches to the chin when Flick gets back up, and he nails Flick with a flying knee. Flick walks through a low kick to throw punches, and Costa is faster and more accurate. Costa rings Flick’s bell with speedy punches, and Flick’s face turns red as Costa seemingly cannot miss. Costa hammers Flick’s left leg with one last kick, and rips a right to the body as the horn sounds. Flick barely is able to limp back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Costa
Round 2
Flick is able to make it out of his corner, and he starts off in southpaw to keep his left leg behind him. Costa does not attack right out of the gate, and he lets Flick kick at him high. Costa times one single low kick, and Flick’s balance is shot and he can barely even lift his foot up.
Flick shoots in after hobbling back to put his arm in the fence to stay up, and Costa bowls him over and starts elbowing him. Flick threatens with some kind of submission, but Costa does not let him set anything up and starts blasting him with elbows. The Brazilian, seeing the finish might be around corner, batters Flick with these nasty elbows until Peterson has seen enough.
Costa strides away, his work done, and he celebrates his first victory inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Jimmy Flick R2 1:03 via TKO (Elbows)
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by late first-round knockout. He is high on Costa, praising his BJJ black belt, grappling, and knockout power. He thinks Costa can dictate where the fight takes place and has good takedown defense. Flick's path is an early submission, but Brady doubts he can submit Costa. He questions Flick's cardio, toughness, and chin, noting Flick has five knockout losses. Brady expects Costa to land a big shot and finish Flick after weathering an early storm.
Cody is confident in Costa, citing Flick's poor durability and cardio. He notes that Flick has been knocked out in five of his six losses, often early, and that his boxing is poor. Costa showed good takedown defense against Amir Albazi, and Cody thinks he can stuff Flick's takedowns and win on the feet. He also plans to live bet Costa if Flick takes him down early and fails to submit him.
Connor picks Costa, citing his more functional and modern MMA game compared to Flick's one-dimensional grappling. He notes that Costa is a cleaner puncher and that Flick's success depends entirely on landing a submission. Connor is concerned that Flick's aggression could be neutralized if Costa stays standing, as seen in Flick's loss to Charles Johnson. He acknowledges Costa's downside is matching Flick's aimlessness but believes Costa's power and takedown defense give him the edge.
Daniel Levi picks Alessandro Costa, citing his BJJ black belt under Diego Lopez and ability to defend submissions. He views Flick as submission-or-bust and believes Costa can handle that threat. He notes Flick's poor durability and that Costa should win if he avoids submissions. He acknowledges the high juice but sees it as a slam dunk.
Flick is a high-level BJJ player who is crafty from top position. Costa is a solid striker but his takedown defense and control on the ground are not impressive. Flick's stationary style of Costa should allow takedown opportunities. Even though Costa is a BJJ black belt, Flick's submission threat is real. The plus 210 line offers value. Flick wins by submission.
Paul is hesitant to lay -255 on Costa, given the question marks around him, but he picks Costa because Flick's cardio and durability are major issues. He notes that Flick looked terrible in his return against Charles Johnson and that Costa held his own against Albazi. Paul would not bet the moneyline but expects Costa to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa over Jimmy Flick, questioning Flick's return after a retirement and a first-round TKO loss to Charles Johnson. He notes Costa's loss to Amir Albazi is no shame, and that Costa has fought good opponents and learned lessons. He predicts Costa will finish Flick by TKO.
Zane picks Jimmy Flick despite acknowledging his limited game, which relies heavily on back takes and submissions. He notes that Flick is a consistent finisher and that Costa is 'just a guy' who may not have the foundation to stop Flick's chaos. However, he admits Flick's style is a Hail Mary and that Costa could win if he keeps it standing. Zane is hesitant because Flick's return is uncertain and he was easily handled by Charles Johnson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 2 | 37 of 81 | 45% | 62 of 110 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 5:54 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 38 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 10 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 13 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 1 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 42 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 1 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Albazi | 37 of 81 | 45% | 23 of 67 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Alessandro Costa | 17 of 71 | 23% | 6 of 55 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amir Albazi | 9 of 32 | 28% | 5 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alessandro Costa | 11 of 41 | 26% | 3 of 31 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amir Albazi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 20 |
| Alessandro Costa | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amir Albazi | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Alessandro Costa | 5 of 21 | 23% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Albazi (-425), Costa (+350)
Round 1
A few weeks ago, rising flyweight Albazi (15-1, 3-0 UFC) expected to take on Brandon Royval in a crucial matchup in the division looking to sort out contenders. Instead, he now greets UFC newcomer Costa (12-2, 0-0 UFC), who made his way to the UFC not for winning on his appearance on this year’s Contender Series but for laying waste to an opponent in 12 seconds in October. Costa may be less renowned than “Raw Dawg” but he is still dangerous. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready for what should be a fast-paced, no-nonsense tilt. The 125ers do not feeling like touching gloves, and instead want to throw leather. Albazi sticks out a few jabs at a range, and Costa replies with one, but neither man finds their range. Albazi feints and fakes by stomping the floor before turning his shoulders to pretend he is throwing, and Costa stomps the floor as well as they try to trigger the other. Costa scores a hard low kick, and Albazi strides forward to double up on his jab. Costa uses his front foot to stomp the mat to fake his blows, and Albazi is not biting. “The Prince” splits the guard with a jab, and Costa fires a single punch back to get some respect. The Brazilian winds up on two power punches, reaching his target at the end of one. Albazi ducks down, takes a punch on the chin, and ducks even lower to pursue a takedown. Costa stops it from succeeding, so Albazi adjusts his effort and hunts for a single to lift his man up. “Nono” says no to the takedown, escaping before it succeeds, and they return to striking range. Costa gets off a one-two as they continue to measure one another from afar, not committing on much and still looking to reach. Albazi shoots in for a double, and he bails on it when Costa stuffs him. Costa tries and fails to make him pay with a one-two, and the jittery Albazi escapes without concern. Albazi springs away from a looping left hand, and he scores a few jabs and follows one with a slapping leg kick. Costa jabs him back, and he comes up short on a one-two. Costa does land on a subsequent one-two, and he jumps at his man with a knee as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The second round begins with more of the same, as Costa measures with rangy strikes. Once Costa connects with a left, he chains it into a pair of one-twos. Albazi whips a kick to the side, and he charges in with a fierce right hand that removes Costa’s balance completely. Costa collapses to the mat, and “The Prince” leaps on top in an effort to land ground strikes. Costa ties him up and largely shuts that down, with a tight guard and some short offense including a few elbows off his back. Albazi gains a little space to land a couple short punches, working the body and going up to the head as he methodically and strategically connects. Costa grabs both of his foe’s wrists and freezes Albazi, with submission possibilities and a tight grip stopping Albazi from getting off offense. The Brazilian suddenly releases them to hammer Albazi’s dome with sharp elbows. Albazi postures up every so often to land a power strike, while Costa stays busy from beneath. Albazi sits up and slams down a number of long punches, getting full extension and bouncing Costa’s head off the mat. Albazi stands up and starts drilling the midsection with standing-to-ground blows, and he evades the potential triangle setup by pushing the legs aside and smacking Costa with arcing hammerfists. Albazi gets off a few more hammerfists before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Albazi
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle to start off the last round, and Albazi begins with a step-in front kick right to the sternum. Costa tries to wing punches back at him, and he does manage to land a few to the body, but Albazi largely ushers him to the side as he evades the brunt of them. Albazi connects with another push kick up the middle, and he times an advancing Costa by countering with a double that puts Costa flat on his back. The Brazilian closes up his guard as Albazi stays tightly pressed on his opponent, delivering sporadic ground-and-pound. In a lull in the action, Costa kicks off and explodes back to his feet. “The Prince” swings with an overhand right that connects behind the head, and Costa resets.
Albazi lunges forward to loose a blistering uppercut, and Costa’s legs give way beneath him as he is in big trouble. Albazi pounces not to secure top position, but to finish the job. Battering Costa with brutal ground strikes, he only needs a few for Peterson to end any possible nonsense and call a halt to this fight as Costa appears to have gone out.
Albazi made the most of a rough situation, taking on a tough but unheralded opponent as other foes had withdrawn from facing him.
The Official Result
Amir Albazi def. Alessandro Costa R3 2:13 via KO (Punches)
Angelo loves Albazi here, expecting him to point strike and work in takedowns for a clear win, potentially a stoppage. He notes Albazi is better everywhere except raw power. He thinks Albazi is good for parlays and expects a dominant performance.
Big Brady picks Albazi, calling him the real deal and a level above Costa. He notes Costa is a good fighter with power and BJJ, but Albazi was scheduled to fight top contenders. He sees no path for Costa to win—not by KO, decision, or submission. He predicts Albazi wins a 30-27 decision.
Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his superior grappling and submission skills. He notes Albazi's striking is solid and he has good durability. He thinks Costa is in a tough spot on short notice and Albazi will take him down and strangle him. He is not confident in a prop but will play Albazi high.
The host bet the over 1.5 rounds, not a moneyline pick. He thinks Costa is better than Albazi's recent opponents and that the fight will be competitive for at least a round and a half. He even considers an Albazi decision at +225. No clear winner pick.
Paul picks Albazi, noting he has been a freight train, taking guys down and choking them out. He questions Costa's grappling level and thinks Albazi's submission skills are on another level. He mentions Albazi's striking looks good and he is agile. He considers inside the distance props.
The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi over Alessandro Costa, citing Albazi's dominant performances in the flyweight division, including submissions over Francisco Figueiredo and Malcolm Gordon. He notes Costa is good but is stepping up on short notice, which is too much of an ask. He expects Albazi to find a submission, as he has been training for top opponents like Alex Perez and Brandon Royval.
Stewart Nicoll - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 1 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 47 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 43 of 89 | 48% | 26 of 67 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 41 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 47 of 99 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 12 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 27 of 59 | 45% | 13 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 20 of 40 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)
Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.
Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.
The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.
James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.
The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.
Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.
Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 115 of 226 | 50% | 130 of 244 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 45 of 138 | 32% | 46 of 139 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 49 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 60 of 99 | 60% | 66 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 115 of 226 | 50% | 81 of 184 | 30 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 100 of 205 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 6 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 45 of 138 | 32% | 41 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 135 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 40 of 87 | 45% | 28 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 31 of 74 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 60 of 99 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 55 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Rocha based on his brain over gut feeling. He notes Lucas is the more dangerous fighter and that Stewart doesn't like forward pressure. However, he acknowledges Lucas's poor takedown defense and the risk of being taken down. He does not bet the moneyline but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a play.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Stewart Nicoll, expecting takedowns to come easy and Nicoll to find a submission. He notes Nicoll is a talented grappler with nasty ground and pound, but made a mistake in his last fight by getting caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha is dangerous on the feet with power and flying knees, but has no striking or takedown defense. Brady sees it as a striker vs grappler matchup and picks Nicoll by second-round submission.
Cody picks Nicoll but is hesitant due to his previous loss by guillotine. He notes Rocha's inability to grapple and Nicoll's path to victory, but worries about travel and Brazilian judging. He suggests checking Nicoll's arrival in Brazil.
Lucrative James picks Stewart Nicoll as an underdog, citing Nicoll's tenacious grappling and takedown ability. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha's striking advantage and knockout power, but believes Nicoll's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He notes that Rocha has been taken down multiple times in past fights and submitted. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll was submitted in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu may not be slick enough to finish Rocha. He sees the fight ending inside the distance.
Manpreet picks Nicoll at plus money, believing his grappling and control will stifle Rocha's Muay Thai. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and ability to take the back, and expects him to win by decision. He considers the plus 100 a value line, as Nicoll would be a favorite if not for his debut loss.
Paul picks Nicoll, citing Rocha's poor grappling and ballooned record. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and physical strength, and expects him to take Rocha down and submit or control him. He warns about travel concerns but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha, believing Rocha is too small for flyweight at 5'3". He trusts Nicoll's physicality, grappling, and Australian fighting spirit. He predicts a decision win or late submission/TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicoll (-230), Aguilar (+190)
Round 1
In what might become a yearly stop for the UFC, the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, is playing host to the promotion today. Like UFC 284 last year, 2024’s UFC 305 package contains plenty of locals with favorable matchups that could result in some thrilling violence. Nine of the 12 fights tonight feature a competitor from or repping Australia or New Zealand, with one pitting an Aussie against a Kiwi, and the other two seeing a Chinese welterweight take center stage. We kick things off with a classic matchup of Australia vs. Mexico as Nicoll (8-0, 0-0 UFC) introduces himself to the organization with the crowd at his back. He battles the overweight Aguilar (10-2, 2-1 UFC), who hit the scales a pound and a half above the flyweight limit to surrender 20% of his purse to his opponent. The referee for the first fight of the night is Steve Perceval, and he kicks things off as the fighters touch gloves. Nicoll introduces himself with a leg kick effort, and his second is met with counters from the Mexican. Aguilar charges him, swinging fists and ultimately clinching up before suddenly grabbing the Aussie from behind. Nicoll responds with a kimura sweep that puts them both on the mat, and he flips around to take the back of his opponent and get hooks in. Nicoll opens up with powerful punches from both sides of the head, and he briefly flattens Aguilar out as he beats on him. Aguilar gets to his knees and spins himself around to put his back on the mat, and Nicoll does not mind this as he hacks down with elbows. Nicoll knees the belly when he sits postured up, and he lands a few punches but finds himself off-balance. Nicoll gets rolled upside-down, and he finds himself doing a handstand with Aguilar hanging on in an effort to throw him down. When Nicoll recovers, Aguilar jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and it is immediately tight.
Aguilar fastens his legs around the waist of his opponent, and Nicoll tries to slither his neck out but he is bone dry and trapped in a precarious position. Aguilar alerts Perceval that Nicoll may be out, and Perceval tests the resistance of Nicoll’s right arm. It flops to the ground. Perceval lifts the lifeless limb again before he intervenes, and he and Aguilar roll Nicoll to his back to demonstrate that Nicoll is completely unconscious with his eyes eerily stuck open.
Aguilar sits up and lifts the legs of his defeated opponent to flow the blood back to Nicoll’s cranium. Just like that, Nicoll has been ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Aguilar has totally silenced the crowd. It may be disappointing to Aguilar that he has forfeited his opportunity to claim post-fight bonus money by missing weight, as that sleep-inducing submission might have been otherwise worthy of an extra check.
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Stewart Nicoll R1 2:39 via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Stewart Nicoll to win based on his wrestling advantage, believing Nicoll can get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll is a 2-to-1 favorite against a tough opponent in Jesus Aguilar, who is dangerous with guillotines. Angelo notes that Nicoll is undefeated but untested at this level, similar to Danny Barlow last week, so he avoids betting but leans Nicoll.
Big Brady picks Stewart Nicoll to win by second-round submission. He notes Nicoll's wrestling and ground-and-pound are very good, and that Jesus Aguilar has 40% takedown defense and has been submitted in both of his losses. He believes the takedowns will come fairly easy for Nicoll, and once on top, his ground-and-pound can open up submissions. He acknowledges this is Nicoll's toughest test to date but is confident in his path to victory.
Cody is impressed with Nicoll's regional tape, noting his relentless takedowns, top control, and nasty elbows. He believes Aguilar has poor takedown defense and has been controlled by lesser wrestlers. Cody expects Nicoll to dominate and possibly submit Aguilar.
Daniel Vreeland picks Stewart Nicoll to win, expecting him to take Aguilar down and control the fight. He notes that Aguilar has poor takedown defense and low output, while Nicoll has good cardio, strength, and tenacity. Vreeland believes Nicoll will grind out a decision or submission.
The host leans to Nicoll, citing his technical superiority in all aspects of MMA against Aguilar. He notes Nicoll's grinding grappling approach and BJJ black belt, but acknowledges Aguilar's power and guillotine threat. He expects Nicoll to dominate and finish within two or three rounds, possibly by club and sub.
Paul likes Nicoll's wrestling and pace, and notes that Aguilar has been taken down by everyone who tried. He mentions Nicoll's submission threat and expects a finish. Paul calls Nicoll a legit prospect and believes the UFC gave him a favorable matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Jesus Aguilar. He notes that Aguilar is explosive but Nicoll is similarly sized and has a grappling style that pins opponents against the cage, dragging them down and controlling them on the ground. He criticizes Aguilar's wins over Menona and Shannon Ross, calling Ross an easy KO for everyone. He also mentions Nicoll's home country advantage in Australia. He expects Nicoll to control the fight with his grinding style.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.
Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.
The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.
James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.
The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.
Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.
Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.
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