UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac

Angelo picks Serghei Spivac, reasoning that Ciryl Gane has been taken down by the only two opponents who tried (Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones). He believes Spivak can get takedowns and win, though cardio is a concern. He has a half-unit bet at +145 and suggests waiting for better odds. He also mentions this could be a good live bet.

Big Brady picks Spivac, believing he can close distance, take Gane down, and dominate on the ground. He notes Gane's takedown defense as a weakness and Spivac's relentless wrestling, ground and pound, and submission threat. He predicts a first-round submission. However, he acknowledges that if Spivac cannot take Gane down, he will look bad on the feet.

Cody sees Spivac as a live underdog at +140, citing Gane's poor takedown defense (45% in UFC) and Spivac's improving wrestling and grappling. He notes Spivac's recent takedown output (6 vs Lewis, 3 vs Sakai) and believes Gane is out of his element on the mat. Cody also mentions Spivac by submission at +800 as an intriguing prop, though he later corrects that the best available is +500.

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane, arguing that Gane's only losses are to the two best heavyweights on earth (Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou) and that those losses are not indicative of his true level. He emphasizes Gane's athleticism, elusive movement, and striking volume, noting that Spivac's grappling style (more judo throws than traditional doubles) will be difficult to implement against Gane's footwork. Levi also points out that Spivac has historically folded when hit to the body, and he expects Gane to hurt him there and finish. He mentions that Gane's aggression on the mat has cost him before but believes he has learned from those mistakes.

Lucrative James bet Spivac at +140 earlier in the week but has become less confident. He believes Gane has clear weaknesses on the ground, as shown against Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. Spivac is one of the best top grapplers in the division and can break Gane down. He notes Gane mentally quit in the Ngannou fight after being taken down. He also bet under 2.5 rounds, expecting an early finish. He considers hedging with Gane by KO.

I'm leaning with the grappler Spivac here. Gane has a tremendous striking advantage but his takedown defense and work off his back are major red flags. Spivac is on a three-fight winning streak and has been improving his takedown timing and top control. I expect Spivac to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and eventually find a submission or TKO from top position. I like the plus money on Spivac and also like the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Paul agrees Spivac is a live underdog but leans Gane due to the five-round nature of the fight. He argues Spivac's cardio is unproven and he may fade in later rounds, while Gane paces himself well and has good cardio. Paul also notes Spivac's chin is suspect and he struggles when forced to strike. He suggests a live bet on Gane if he loses early rounds, as he could come back late.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane by first or second-round TKO, arguing that Gane has had time to improve his grappling and that Spivac's takedowns come from the clinch, not single or double legs. He notes Spivac's poor stand-up and lack of big crowd experience, while Gane will have the Paris crowd behind him. He expects Gane to control distance with kicks and jabs, and Spivac will crumble.

Angelo is confident Manon Fiorot dominates, citing her size, power, and volume. He notes Rose Namajunas is moving up in weight and lacks volume compared to Manon. He points out Manon has landed more strikes in each of her last five wins than Rose did in five-round fights. He has parlayed Manon with Ange Loosa.

Big Brady picks Fiorot, citing her size, strength, power, and volume advantage over the smaller Namajunas moving up from strawweight. He doubts Rose can outgrapple, outvolume, or knock out Fiorot. He expects Fiorot to win a decision, though he acknowledges Rose's striking talent and calls it an interesting test.

Cody picks Fiorot due to size and strength advantages at flyweight, and questions Rose's motivation after a lackluster performance against Esparza. He notes Rose's striking advantages were not used in that fight and she has been off for a year. Fiorot's kicking game and French crowd support are key factors. Cody sees Rose's offensive wrestling as a potential path but doubts she can take down or hold down a strong flyweight.

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, arguing that Fiorot's elusive, outside-fighting style will frustrate Rose Namajunas, who thrives in pocket boxing exchanges. He believes Fiorot will use sidekicks and movement to keep Rose at range, preventing her from letting her hands go. Levi dismisses the size narrative, stating that Fiorot is not a pressure grappler so the weight class difference is irrelevant. He expects a clear 30-27 decision, noting that Fiorot has a history of outpointing tough opponents like Mayra Bueno Silva.

Lucrative James is on Fiorot, having bet on her almost every fight. He thinks Fiorot is legit, top-five material, and that Rose is meeting her at the wrong time. He notes Rose's mental issues, long layoff, career-worst performance, and step up in weight. He believes Fiorot is bigger and stronger, and that Rose hasn't been finished except by Carla Esparza long ago. He likes Fiorot by points at +140, as he doesn't see a finish.

I'm leaning with Fiorot here. She has great takedown defense and a dynamic striking style with power and volume. Rose is a wild card mentally and may struggle with the weight cut to flyweight. Fiorot's footwork and ability to stay at distance should allow her to land significant strikes. However, I don't have a boatload of confidence because Rose has the experience advantage and could potentially get takedowns if she closes the distance. I think Fiorot wins by decision.

Paul also picks Fiorot, emphasizing her size and strength advantage. He doubts Rose's motivation and notes her inability to engage against Esparza. Paul thinks Rose's offensive wrestling could be a factor but that Fiorot's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He expects a striking affair where Fiorot's speed and kicking game prevail, likely by decision (29-28 or 30-27).

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot by TKO, citing her physicality and dangerous stand-up, while Rose Namajunas appears mentally checked out. He notes Rose's lack of activity, her poor performance against Carla Esparza, and her loss in a grappling match. He believes Fiorot will overwhelm Rose with a flurry of punches in round one.

Angelo leans towards Bogdan Guskov, calling him the more dangerous guy with well-rounded skills. He notes Volkan Oezdemir has a weak chin and has fought top competition, but Guskov's power and patience on the ground could be key. He hopes for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Big Brady picks Oezdemir, despite acknowledging his recent decline and poor performance against Paul Craig. He views Guskov as a 'fraud' with poor cardio, striking defense, and competition level. He expects Oezdemir to finish Guskov early, likely by first-round KO, as this is the easiest fight of Oezdemir's UFC tenure.

Cody picks Oezdemir but is hesitant, acknowledging Guskov's first-round KO power and the trend of debuting underdogs winning. He notes Oezdemir has struggled lately, with low volume and no knockdowns in four years, but has elite training and experience. Guskov is a wild card who has only faced regional competition. Cody thinks Oezdemir can point-fight to a decision but Guskov is live for an early finish.

Daniel Levi picks Volkan Oezdemir, acknowledging that Oezdemir has shown regression but believes the experience gap is massive. He notes that Oezdemir has fought the who's who of the division, while Guskov is an unproven newcomer with a questionable chin. Levi admits Oezdemir hasn't finished anyone since 2019 and his takedown defense has declined, but he still thinks Oezdemir has enough to win. He is not confident enough to offer a bet, calling it a 'see how it goes' fight.

Lucrative James is on Guskov moneyline, believing Oezdemir has been on a downtrend since the Jiri knockout, with worse reaction time and chin. He thinks Guskov has true power, shown by knockouts in multiple ways (elbows, jabs, straight hands). He notes Guskov's submissions are also good, and he has a prop on Guskov by submission at 20-1. He argues that heavyweights with knockout power can step up in competition more easily because they only need one shot.

I'm picking Oezdemir here. He has a huge experience advantage and I expect a very pissed off version of him after his last fight. He should use his leg kicking game to slow down Guskov and then find his knockout power within the first 10 minutes. Guskov is a power puncher who finishes early, but when he faces resistance he struggles. Oezdemir's power and experience should be too much.

Paul picks Oezdemir but is scared, recalling Oezdemir's poor performance against Krylov where he was mauled. He compares Guskov to Nursulton Ruziboev, a debuting fighter who crushed a veteran. Paul notes Guskov has first-round KO potential and is a low-owned DFS play. He won't bet the -180 but will pick Oezdemir.

The MMA Guru picks Volkan Oezdemir by late second-round TKO, noting that Oezdemir has improved technically and has gone to decisions with tough opponents. He acknowledges Guskov is dangerous but believes Oezdemir will weather early rough moments and find a finish as the fight progresses.

Angelo picks Caolán Loughran due to his explosiveness and takedown style, comparing it to Jordan Burroughs. He is surprised Loughran is a 3-to-1 favorite given his stationary stance. He notes Yanis Ghemmouri has nice leg kicks and technique, but Loughran's power and wrestling give him the edge. He avoids betting on this fight.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Gomis, despite being a self-proclaimed 'hater'. He notes Gomis' size advantage, range management, and excellent striking defense. However, he criticizes Gomis' low volume and unexciting style, expecting an ugly decision win. He acknowledges Ghemmouri is also French, but believes Gomis should win.

Cody picks Gomis but notes the price is terrible (-300). He describes Gomis's style as low-output, lateral movement, and mixing in takedowns, which often leads to close decisions. Ghemmouri is moving up from 135, which is a disadvantage. Cody expects a decision and suggests Gomis by decision prop. He warns that Gomis could get screwed on scorecards due to low volume.

Daniel Levi picks William Gomis, citing Gomis's size and athleticism advantage. He notes that Gomis is a tall featherweight who switches stances well and has a nasty left kick and straight. Levi acknowledges that Gomis has low volume and has nearly been submitted in both his UFC fights, but he believes the physicality will be too much for Ghemmouri, who is moving up from bantamweight on short notice. Levi expresses frustration that he missed a great dog spot on Ghemmouri against a different opponent, but here he favors the bigger man.

Lucrative James is fading Gomis, having bet on Ghemmouri at +210. He feels Gomis's style doesn't warrant being a -300 favorite, especially against a power striker. He notes the fight is competitive and that Gomis wins on slim margins, as seen in his fight against Francis Marshall where he almost got finished. He also bet on Ghemmouri in his previous fight against Lofran.

I'm picking Gomis to win by decision. He has a good mix of striking and grappling, and I expect him to use his grappling to overwhelm Ghemmouri. However, this fight is a pass for me because Gomis went from a +200 underdog to a -250 favorite, which feels like a market overcorrection. Ghemmouri is still a question mark. I'd rather take Gomis over 2.5 rounds.

Paul calls this a dog or pass situation, noting Gomis's extremely low output (27 and 32 significant strikes in his two UFC fights) and that his wins came against questionable competition. He says he'll wait for weigh-ins to see the size difference but leans Ghemmouri if forced to pick. He mentions the fight was made last minute so only moneyline is available.

Angelo picks Morgan Charrière, citing his clinch work, cardio advantage, and ability to beat Manolo to the punch. He notes Manolo has more raw power but loops his punches. However, Angelo warns against betting at -260 on a UFC debut, calling it foolish.

Big Brady is confident in Charrière, citing his well-roundedness, toughness, and experience. He notes Zecchini's lower level of competition and potential cardio/durability concerns. He expects Charrière to win wherever the fight goes, likely by taking Zecchini down and finishing with ground and pound in the second round.

Cody picks Zecchini as an underdog, citing Charrière's inconsistency and low output. He notes Charrière is a veteran with 30 fights but tends to be tentative and conservative. Zecchini comes forward, is willing to engage, and has finishing ability. Cody worries about French judges favoring Charrière but thinks Zecchini can win by pressuring and outworking him.

Daniel Levi picks Morgan Charrière, highlighting his athleticism, calf kicks, and toughness. He recalls a fight where Charrière survived a rear triangle choke and then delivered vicious ground and pound. Levi notes that Charrière has close fights with lower-level opponents but believes the athleticism gap is massive here. He expects Charrière to win but is not interested at the steep price, saying there is no value.

Lucrative James sees Morgan Charrière as a huge favorite and believes the line is warranted. He thinks Charrière can win wherever the fight goes, with advantages in both striking and grappling. He expects a TKO finish rather than a decision, noting that Charrière's opponent is low-level and that Charrière can dominate on the ground. He acknowledges Charrière's past losses but attributes them to good wrestlers, which Zecchini is not.

I like Charrière here. The UFC is giving him a perfect layup opponent in Zecchini, who isn't anything special and has poor takedown defense. Charrière should be able to take the fight to the ground and control it. However, I have concerns about his cardio and he's more hype than talent in my opinion. I think he wins by decision, but I might throw him in a parlay.

Paul joins Cody on Zecchini, noting he doesn't step in front of Cody's dog picks. He mentions a prize picks prop of 44.5 significant strikes for Charrière, which he thinks is a pass because it would require a very low-output fight. Paul is not confident but follows the underdog trend.

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière by TKO, arguing that despite Charrière's losses to regional fighters not in the UFC, he has a strength of schedule advantage and is physically strong with good takedown defense. He believes Charrière has a massive power advantage and will finish Zecchini, though he admits Charrière doesn't deserve to be in the UFC.

Angelo has a slight lean towards Caolán Loughran, trusting his forward pressure and wrestling. He compares Loughran's grit to Erin Blanchfield's. He notes Taylor Lapilus has clean striking but Loughran can march forward and stay in his face. Angelo is waiting for prop bets before betting.

Big Brady picks Lapilus, impressed by his striking, takedown defense, and toughness. He notes Lapilus' previous UFC experience and superior competition compared to Loughran. He expects Lapilus to be the better striker and not be taken down, winning a decision. He questions Loughran's decision to take this tougher fight.

Cody picks Lapilus, highlighting his experience (3-1 in UFC previously), excellent kicks, defensive skills, high ring IQ, and cardio. He notes Loughran is undefeated but his competition has been weak, including opponents with losing records. Lapilus has wins over Nate Maness and Wilson Reis, while Loughran's best wins are against unproven fighters. Cody believes Lapilus's defensive grappling and takedown ability will be key.

Daniel Levi picks Taylor Lapilus, stating that Lapilus is a dynamic kickboxer who should light up Loughran on the feet. He notes that Loughran is a stationary target with poor defense and that Lapilus has the experience and skill advantage. Levi warns that Lapilus sometimes has low output and lets opponents back into fights, but he believes Lapilus will pick Loughran apart as long as he doesn't play with his food. He also mentions that Loughran's path to victory is via takedowns and back takes, which have troubled Lapilus in the past.

I'm going with Lapilus here. He has a speed and distance striking advantage, and his kicking game should keep Loughran at bay. Loughran is a promising prospect but this might be too much too soon. Lapilus has good takedown defense and works well back to his feet. I think Lapilus stops Loughran by KO due to the speed advantage.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Loughran's undefeated record is built on weak opposition, including two opponents with a combined 1-82 record. He says Lapilus is a proven veteran fighting in front of his home crowd, making him a justifiable favorite.

The MMA Guru picks Caolán Loughran, describing him as a physically strong tank who can take the fight wherever he wants. He notes Loughran's recent wins over good regional opponents and his dangerous hands, while Lapilus is a good fighter but Loughran's physicality will be too much. He predicts Loughran will squash Lapilus.

Angelo picks Ange Loosa confidently, citing his durability, speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Rhys McKee has technical striking but poor wrestling defense, and after seeing Loosa out-wrestle AJ Fletcher, he's confident Loosa can do the same here. He mentions a parlay with Loosa at +135.

Big Brady leans toward Loosa, citing his durability (never finished) and ability to dictate where the fight goes. He notes McKee's poor takedown defense and hittability, but acknowledges McKee's toughness and power. He expects a close fight with Loosa winning a decision, possibly using takedowns.

Cody picks Loosa, citing his well-rounded game, training at Kill Cliff FC, and ability to mix takedowns. He notes McKee's takedown defense is exploitable, as shown by Alex Morono taking him down three times. Loosa has nasty leg kicks and good durability. Cody expects Loosa to win by decision, using leg kicks and takedowns to control the fight.

Daniel Levi picks Ange Loosa, noting that Loosa showed improved volume in his last fight against AJ Fletcher and has power in his hands. He acknowledges that Loosa can slow down and that McKee is durable and could take over late. Levi is concerned about Loosa's cardio but believes he has more paths to victory, including mixing in takedowns. He calls it a well-matched fight and leans Loosa but is not confident enough to bet heavily.

I like McKee at plus money. Loosa is explosive early but fades in the second and third rounds. McKee is a volume striker who gets stronger as fights go on. If McKee can survive the early onslaught, he should pull away late. I also like McKee round three as a prop. Loosa has struggled against technically better strikers, and McKee fits that description.

Paul agrees with Loosa, noting McKee's wrestling is exploitable. He mentions Loosa's win over AJ Fletcher showed his wrestling advantage. Paul trusts Loosa to get the job done, though he notes McKee has a reach advantage. He adds Loosa over 1.5 takedowns to his prize picks card.

The MMA Guru picks Rhys McKee, comparing him stylistically to Munir Lazes, who outworked Ange Loosa at range. He notes Loosa's lack of power and short reach, while McKee is taller with a longer reach and better straight punches. He expects McKee to outpoint Loosa in a close 29-28 decision, possibly with a sting advantage.

Angelo picks Nora Cornolle as an underdog, liking her aggression and ability to come forward. He notes Joselyne Edwards has no takedown defense and doesn't know what to do on the ground. The only concern is Nora's cardio, as she's only seen the third round once. He thinks Nora can get the win if she works in takedowns.

Big Brady is hesitant but picks Cornolle, citing Edwards' poor takedown defense and get-up game. He notes Cornolle's grappling threat and the hometown advantage in Paris. However, he acknowledges Edwards has faced better competition and that Cornolle's level of opposition is low. He expects a close, greasy decision.

Cody picks Edwards based on experience (6 UFC fights) and volume. He notes Cornolle has a Muay Thai background but has fought low-level competition. Edwards lands high volume (164 strikes vs Pasquale, 101 vs Kim) and is strong in the clinch. However, the fight is close and could be subjective; Cody expects a decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds. He is not confident due to potential French judge bias.

Daniel Levi picks Joselyne Edwards, citing her experience, volume striking, and size advantage. He notes that Edwards has outstruck every UFC opponent except one and that Cornolle is a 33-year-old debutant who turned pro in 2021. Levi believes Cornolle's level of competition has been very low and that Edwards should be able to outpoint her. He is not confident enough to bet but leans Edwards.

I'm leaning with Edwards. She has good lateral movement and kicks to keep Cornolle at range. Cornolle is aggressive but has shown vulnerability when hit and may have cardio issues. Edwards has improved takedown defense and should be able to keep the fight standing. I expect Edwards to win by decision.

Paul picks Edwards but won't bet the fight due to judge uncertainty. He likes Edwards over 67.5 significant strikes on prize picks, noting she has cleared that number in multiple fights. He expects a striking affair and thinks Edwards' volume will be enough.

The MMA Guru picks Joselyne Edwards, despite her being the favorite, because he believes Nora Cornolle's regional tape shows poor technique and reliance on physicality. He notes Edwards has a massive frame advantage and has improved recently, while Cornolle looked untechnical. He predicts Edwards wins by decision.

Angelo picks Farid Basharat but with low confidence, noting the betting lines should be closer. He says Farid is the more technically sound fighter but didn't like pressure from Damon Blackshear, and Kleydson is all pressure. If Kleydson brawls, he can win. Angelo is staying away from the -300 line.

Big Brady picks Basharat, emphasizing his size, striking volume, and wrestling advantage. He notes Rodrigues' past weight issues and tough debut at bantamweight. He expects Basharat to use takedowns and control to win a decision, calling it a tough matchup for Rodrigues.

Cody is high on Basharat, calling him a real prospect at 26-0. He likes his movement, striking, and improving wrestling under Jake Shields. Basharat's win over Da'Mon Blackshear is a quality victory. Rodrigues has weight issues (missed weight twice) and is moving up to 135, which will affect his takedown defense. Cody expects Basharat to pick him apart on the feet and mix in takedowns.

Daniel Levi picks Farid Basharat with high confidence, having bet him at -245 earlier. He praises Basharat's footwork, jab, fight IQ, and heart, noting that he passed a tough test against Damon Blackshear. Levi believes Basharat's pace and pressure will be too much for Rodrigues, who is explosive but tends to fade and has been taken down by lesser fighters. He expects a second or third round finish, citing Basharat's ground and pound and submission defense.

I like the chalk on Basharat. He has a slick boxing/kickboxing game and blends in takedowns well. Rodrigues is moving up in weight and has cardio issues. Basharat should establish range, get the fight to the clinch, and take advantage of Rodrigues' gas tank. I also like Basharat round three as a sprinkle. If the fight escapes the first round, Basharat should dominate later rounds.

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Basharat by decision is basically a pick'em. He notes Rodrigues has never been finished, so a decision is likely. Paul likes Basharat over 2.5 takedowns on prize picks, expecting a takedown per round.

The MMA Guru picks Farid Basharat, citing his win over Damon Blackshear as having aged well, and noting that Kleydson Rodrigues has losses to CJ Vergara and a win over Shannon Ross. He believes Basharat is more well-rounded and will drown Rodrigues in the second and third rounds, though he acknowledges Rodrigues could land a spinning kick early. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Basharat.

Angelo picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti because Zarah Fairn is pushing 40 and fades as fights go on. He notes Fairn's striking is technical but age and cardio are issues. Cavalcanti can push pace and stay in Fairn's face, and even if Fairn has early success, she will tire. Angelo acknowledges Fairn would have been his pick a few years ago.

Big Brady is confident in Cavalcanti, citing her youth, size, and superior skills everywhere. He notes Fairn's age (36 or 39) and questionable UFC caliber, and expects Cavalcanti to dominate on the ground or on the feet. He predicts a finish within the first two rounds, specifically a second-round TKO. He also mentions Fairn's history of missing weight, casting doubt on the fight happening.

Cody picks Cavalcanti, citing her youth (26), improvements, and win over Melissa Croden. He notes Fairn is 40, has missed weight badly, and has poor striking and grappling. Cavalcanti has a striking advantage and can grapple if needed. However, he warns that betting heavy favorites on debut fighters is risky, comparing the card to Minesweeper.

Daniel Levi picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, citing her physicality, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Fairn is 39 years old and has a history of slowing down, while Cavalcanti is younger and more athletic. Levi acknowledges the risk of a debutant stun but believes Cavalcanti should win if she doesn't suffer from stage fright. He is not laying chalk at this price.

I'm going with Fairn as a big underdog. She has better experience and can outwork Cavalcanti if the fight stays at range. Cavalcanti is a low-volume striker and may be too patient. Fairn has shown she can put up numbers even in losses. I only take a half unit shot because it's low-level women's MMA and Fairn has weight issues, but I think she wins by decision.

Paul picks Fairn as a contrarian underdog, noting that Fairn outstruck Josiane Nunes 117-102 in her last fight and is a boxer who can stand and trade. He thinks Cavalcanti's loss to Gendrova (who lost to Liv Rock) is concerning. He also mentions the French crowd could influence judges. He takes a three-to-one chewy bet challenge from Cody, betting Fairn.

The MMA Guru picks Jacqueline Cavalcanti, noting she looks decent as a prospect with a good record, while Zarah Fairn lacks technique and has been dominated. He acknowledges uncertainty with women's MMA prospects but believes Cavalcanti will win by decision.