UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Jun 27, 2026 · Welterweight · Scheduled
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Tahir Abdullayev
Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
FanDuel +650
Submission
BetRivers +800
Decision
FanDuel +380
Jefferson Nascimento
Moneyline
Pinnacle +163
KO/TKO
Cloudbet 6.12
Submission
Cloudbet 9.52
Decision
Cloudbet 3.29
Tahir Abdullayev - Fight History
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ favors Abdullayev due to his natural size advantage as a welterweight, good chin, and power. He notes Nascimento is faster but brawls and is hittable, and that Abdullayev's physicality could be a factor in the clinch. However, AJ admits low confidence and hasn't seen lines yet.

"I got to favor the side of the naturally larger Abdelv. ... I'm thinking that Abdelv ends off with a win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards the local fighter Abdullayev, citing his natural size at 170 and durability (never knocked out). He notes Nascimento is moving up from lightweight and fought less than a month ago, which could be a disadvantage. However, he expresses nervousness and calls it a coin flip, advising against betting on this fight.

No prop betting options available at the time; odds even at -120/+100.
"I kind of lean Abdoliv, but like barely."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards Abdullayev due to being a natural welterweight with durability and power, while Nascimento is coming off a tough fight three weeks ago and may be concussed. He notes Abdullayev's physicality and wrestling advantage, but admits it's a coin flip fight.

Kalshi shows Abdullayev 23% chance to win, Nascimento 77% (implied -340 favorite). AJ finds that crazy.
"I feel this pull towards Abdelv for some reason. That reason being he's a natural welterweight whereas Nasimento LFA champion lightweight division."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento despite the public leaning heavily on Abdullayev. He notes that while Abdullayev is a strong wrestler, his striking is poor and he hates pressure, which Nascimento excels at applying. However, he warns that Nascimento can overextend and end up in scrambles, making the fight closer than expected.

"I am picking Nasamento here. I am shocked to see the discrepancy between the general public at 73% and the betting odds were Nasnto opened as a two to1 favorite and now he's basically even money."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.

CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Nascimento's LFA championship and better competition, and Abdullayev's lack of UFC quality. He believes Nascimento is the better fighter and expects him to win.

"I think Nata is a way better fighter um overall He's got all the tools."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

Jacob picks Abdullayev, citing his home turf advantage, larger frame, and the fact that Nascimento fought just three weeks ago and has a fresh cut near his eye that could open up. He believes Abdullayev will come out hot and bulldoze Nascimento early, possibly via doctor stoppage.

Fight ends early (round 1 or 2)
"Give me Abdullah to win this fight early. And I think he can win it by hammering over and bulldozing Jefferson Nasto."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

The host believes Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento, who is coming back too quickly after a grueling LFA title defense. He predicts Abdullaev will land his bomb and eventually put Nascimento away by knockout.

Abdullaev wins by knockout
"I believe Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento who is coming back way too quickly after having a grueling battle defending his LFA title at the ending of May."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, citing his superior skills and level of competition. He notes Abdullayev's poor takedown defense and suspect cardio, and believes Nascimento will win. He sees value at plus money and hopes for higher limits.

"Jefferson looks okay to me, but open up the limits. Nothing to be scared of."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento despite acknowledging poor circumstances: short notice, moving up a weight class, recent war with cut, and flying to Azerbaijan. He believes Abdullayev is not UFC-level and lacks wrestling advantage. However, he is not confident due to Nascimento's potential diminished performance.

"I'm going to pick Nascimento, but I don't think anyone can be confident in Nascimento with the circumstances he has either."
Jefferson Nascimento - Fight History
SCHED vs Tahir Abdullayev
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ favors Abdullayev due to his natural size advantage as a welterweight, good chin, and power. He notes Nascimento is faster but brawls and is hittable, and that Abdullayev's physicality could be a factor in the clinch. However, AJ admits low confidence and hasn't seen lines yet.

"I got to favor the side of the naturally larger Abdelv. ... I'm thinking that Abdelv ends off with a win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards the local fighter Abdullayev, citing his natural size at 170 and durability (never knocked out). He notes Nascimento is moving up from lightweight and fought less than a month ago, which could be a disadvantage. However, he expresses nervousness and calls it a coin flip, advising against betting on this fight.

No prop betting options available at the time; odds even at -120/+100.
"I kind of lean Abdoliv, but like barely."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards Abdullayev due to being a natural welterweight with durability and power, while Nascimento is coming off a tough fight three weeks ago and may be concussed. He notes Abdullayev's physicality and wrestling advantage, but admits it's a coin flip fight.

Kalshi shows Abdullayev 23% chance to win, Nascimento 77% (implied -340 favorite). AJ finds that crazy.
"I feel this pull towards Abdelv for some reason. That reason being he's a natural welterweight whereas Nasimento LFA champion lightweight division."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento despite the public leaning heavily on Abdullayev. He notes that while Abdullayev is a strong wrestler, his striking is poor and he hates pressure, which Nascimento excels at applying. However, he warns that Nascimento can overextend and end up in scrambles, making the fight closer than expected.

"I am picking Nasamento here. I am shocked to see the discrepancy between the general public at 73% and the betting odds were Nasnto opened as a two to1 favorite and now he's basically even money."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.

CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Nascimento's LFA championship and better competition, and Abdullayev's lack of UFC quality. He believes Nascimento is the better fighter and expects him to win.

"I think Nata is a way better fighter um overall He's got all the tools."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

Jacob picks Abdullayev, citing his home turf advantage, larger frame, and the fact that Nascimento fought just three weeks ago and has a fresh cut near his eye that could open up. He believes Abdullayev will come out hot and bulldoze Nascimento early, possibly via doctor stoppage.

Fight ends early (round 1 or 2)
"Give me Abdullah to win this fight early. And I think he can win it by hammering over and bulldozing Jefferson Nasto."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

The host believes Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento, who is coming back too quickly after a grueling LFA title defense. He predicts Abdullaev will land his bomb and eventually put Nascimento away by knockout.

Abdullaev wins by knockout
"I believe Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento who is coming back way too quickly after having a grueling battle defending his LFA title at the ending of May."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, citing his superior skills and level of competition. He notes Abdullayev's poor takedown defense and suspect cardio, and believes Nascimento will win. He sees value at plus money and hopes for higher limits.

"Jefferson looks okay to me, but open up the limits. Nothing to be scared of."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento despite acknowledging poor circumstances: short notice, moving up a weight class, recent war with cut, and flying to Azerbaijan. He believes Abdullayev is not UFC-level and lacks wrestling advantage. However, he is not confident due to Nascimento's potential diminished performance.

"I'm going to pick Nascimento, but I don't think anyone can be confident in Nascimento with the circumstances he has either."
Expert Picks (10)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards the local fighter Abdullayev, citing his natural size at 170 and durability (never knocked out). He notes Nascimento is moving up from lightweight and fought less than a month ago, which could be a disadvantage. However, he expresses nervousness and calls it a coin flip, advising against betting on this fight.

No prop betting options available at the time; odds even at -120/+100.
"I kind of lean Abdoliv, but like barely."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ favors Abdullayev due to his natural size advantage as a welterweight, good chin, and power. He notes Nascimento is faster but brawls and is hittable, and that Abdullayev's physicality could be a factor in the clinch. However, AJ admits low confidence and hasn't seen lines yet.

"I got to favor the side of the naturally larger Abdelv. ... I'm thinking that Abdelv ends off with a win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

AJ leans towards Abdullayev due to being a natural welterweight with durability and power, while Nascimento is coming off a tough fight three weeks ago and may be concussed. He notes Abdullayev's physicality and wrestling advantage, but admits it's a coin flip fight.

Kalshi shows Abdullayev 23% chance to win, Nascimento 77% (implied -340 favorite). AJ finds that crazy.
"I feel this pull towards Abdelv for some reason. That reason being he's a natural welterweight whereas Nasimento LFA champion lightweight division."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento despite the public leaning heavily on Abdullayev. He notes that while Abdullayev is a strong wrestler, his striking is poor and he hates pressure, which Nascimento excels at applying. However, he warns that Nascimento can overextend and end up in scrambles, making the fight closer than expected.

"I am picking Nasamento here. I am shocked to see the discrepancy between the general public at 73% and the betting odds were Nasnto opened as a two to1 favorite and now he's basically even money."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 21, 2026 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.

CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Nascimento's LFA championship and better competition, and Abdullayev's lack of UFC quality. He believes Nascimento is the better fighter and expects him to win.

"I think Nata is a way better fighter um overall He's got all the tools."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

Jacob picks Abdullayev, citing his home turf advantage, larger frame, and the fact that Nascimento fought just three weeks ago and has a fresh cut near his eye that could open up. He believes Abdullayev will come out hot and bulldoze Nascimento early, possibly via doctor stoppage.

Fight ends early (round 1 or 2)
"Give me Abdullah to win this fight early. And I think he can win it by hammering over and bulldozing Jefferson Nasto."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tahir Abdullayev

The host believes Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento, who is coming back too quickly after a grueling LFA title defense. He predicts Abdullaev will land his bomb and eventually put Nascimento away by knockout.

Abdullaev wins by knockout
"I believe Abdullaev's power-punching style will allow him to find the chin of Nascimento who is coming back way too quickly after having a grueling battle defending his LFA title at the ending of May."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, citing his superior skills and level of competition. He notes Abdullayev's poor takedown defense and suspect cardio, and believes Nascimento will win. He sees value at plus money and hopes for higher limits.

"Jefferson looks okay to me, but open up the limits. Nothing to be scared of."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jefferson Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento despite acknowledging poor circumstances: short notice, moving up a weight class, recent war with cut, and flying to Azerbaijan. He believes Abdullayev is not UFC-level and lacks wrestling advantage. However, he is not confident due to Nascimento's potential diminished performance.

"I'm going to pick Nascimento, but I don't think anyone can be confident in Nascimento with the circumstances he has either."