Career Averages - Asu Almabayev
Career Averages - Charles Johnson
Asu Almabayev
Charles Johnson
Asu Almabayev - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-250); Johnson (+200)
Round 1
The UFC Baku main card is about to get a jolt of caffeine, as there’s nothing quite like a men’s flyweight scrap to break up the grind. Almabayev and Johnson are ready to go. The third man in the Octagon is Herb Dean. The fourth man in the Octagon is Johnson’s hair. Both men are in orthodox stance, and immediately trade fast kicks, Johnson to the legs, Almabayev to the body. Johnson is switching stances frequently in the early going. Almabayev stalks forward, stance-agnostic: he’s simply kicking the front leg, whichever it happens to be. Almabayev nails Johnson with a left hook, then another. That one draws an acknowledging nod from the American. Almabayev steps into the pocket and, with Johnson perhaps expecting the left hand again, instead grabs a single-leg and treetops him for an easy takedown. Almabayev parks in Johnson’s spidery guard, and Johnson does not let him get comfortable, using his arms and butterfly hooks to keep him off balance. Almabayev stands up out of Johnson’s guard, and when Johnson sits up, he slaps on a guillotine choke. Johnson fights the hands diligently, and Almabayev gives up on the submission. Almabayev lets Johnson up, and takes him right back down, this time into side control. Johnson regains guard just before the 30-second mark. The horn sounds with Almabayev dropping punches from full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle of the cage and unleash a flurry of punches on each other, with both men landing. Almabayev stalks forward behind a pawing lead hand, then spins and digs a heel kick into Johnson’s midsection. Almabayev lands a right hand. Johnson is still in possession of his faculties and defending himself, but he’s getting lit up right now. Almabayev tags Johnson with a punch that knocks him down, mostly off-balance, and Johnson springs back up. Almabayev throws another spinning back kick, and this one lands squarely on Johnson’s johnson with a “clock” that can be heard halfway to Samarkand. Joe Rogan, in his compound outside of Austin, Texas, screams about Thai steel cups. Dean gives Johnson a respite and Almabayev a warning, and they go back to work. Almabayev secures a glass-smooth takedown and is all over Johnson, staying snug in top position as Johnson scrambles and looks for a knee shield to get some separation. Almabayev drops a couple of hard punches, then looks to take Johnson’s back. Johnson defends well, getting back to full guard, but Almabayev is relentless, and he makes his way to Johnson’s back as Johnson kneels in the center of the cage. At the 10-second clapper, Almabayev tries for a rear-naked choke, but can’t get anything going before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
Johnson’s corner tells the former Olympic steeplechaser between rounds that this is a sprint, not a marathon, and he comes right out with a couple of long punches and a front kick before giving up yet another easy takedown. Almabayev blunders into a reverse triangle choke and it looks uncomfortable, but not immediately threatening. Johnson gives up the choke and Almabayev settles into his half guard, heavy and low on top. Johnson is active on bottom, scrambling and offering a dozen different looks, and Almabayev just floats brilliantly, staying a step ahead of everything. Johnson turns his back and Almabayev sinks in a body triangle, taking back mount in the middle of the cage with half the round left.
Almabayev is riding a bit high but switches from a body triangle to conventional hooks, then grabs Johnson’s leg, wraps the body triangle back up and hits a Suloev stretch!
Are you kidding me? After such a wrestling and grappling masterclass, what a perfect valedictory by Asu Almabayev.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Charles Johnson R3 3:33 via Submission (Suloev Stretch)
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, citing his consistent wrestling and cardio. He thinks Johnson is unreliable and that Almabayev's takedown threat will win rounds. AJ notes Johnson's getup game but believes Almabayev's accuracy and mixing of strikes will secure a decision.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting him to outwrestle Johnson. He thinks Almabayev is craftier and has better wrestling than Johnson's previous opponents. He notes Johnson tends to struggle against fellow veterans and that the fight likely goes the distance.
Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.
Angelo picks Almabayev, noting that Johnson stays on the outside and lacks forward pressure, which Almabayev needs to be effective. He thinks Almabayev can do what he wants without pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Angelo considers Charles Johnson plus 3.5 at even money, thinking Johnson can win a round and that the fight likely goes to decision. He notes that plus 3.5 covers a win, split decision loss, or clean 29-28 loss, making it a good bet at even money.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.
Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.
Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.
Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.
The host expects this fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He believes Almabaev's ability to mix in grappling at key moments and land big shots on the feet will keep Johnson on the back foot, leading to a decision win for Almabaev.
Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.
The Guru picks Almabayev via decision, but admits he doesn't have a strong read. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and conditioning will be key, but acknowledges Johnson's knockout power. He is not confident and spends little time on the breakdown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 55 of 90 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 | 0 | 9:26 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 118 of 151 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 36 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 46 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Jose Ochoa | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 22 of 42 | 52% | 12 of 26 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 16 |
| Jose Ochoa | 26 of 45 | 57% | 8 of 19 | 13 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 17 of 33 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Ochoa | 10 of 18 | 55% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 11 |
| Jose Ochoa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 |
| Jose Ochoa | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-110); Ochoa (-110)
Round 1
The momentum of a 17-fight win streak for Almabayev (21-3, 4-1 UFC) came to a screeching halt not just because of his loss to Manel Kape, but
how
Ochoa is ready for combat, attacking repeatedly with low kicks and a hard left hand. Almabayev ties him up after taking a clean land, and he absorbs a knee and a left hand on the way to trying to take the fight down. Ochoa keeps his balance with the wall behind him, and he quickly pops up when Almabayev drags him to his knees. Almabayev uses a body lock to hurl “Kalzifer” to the floor, landing in side control, but once more Ochoa bursts back to his feet even with his fellow flyweight holding onto him. Almabayev looks to jump and take the back standing, but he falls off the back. On a second effort, Almabayev is able to take the back upright, but he has to hook his toes in the fence to stay balanced. He releases the grip and separates.
As Ochoa bears down on his opponent, Almabayev tags him with a punch and a high kick. Ochoa keeps pressing forward, and Almabayev slickly ducks under and drags him to the mat, where he gets on his back and starts crushing Ochoa’s nose with a face crank. Almabayev climbs onto his foe’s back while Ochoa is on his feet, and Ochoa leans against the fence to take some of the weight off of him. Almabayev hunts for a choke but is in the wrong position as he is nearly wriggled off, and he tries for a desperation leglock to stay there. He lets it go, and Ochoa rushes after him laying into him with his fists. Almabayev tries a takedown, and he narrowly avoids a knee on the way back up after it fails. Almabayev spins for a back kick, and Ochoa pushes through and takes his back with 30 seconds to go, setting up the body triangle as soon as he lands. Both men decided against submissions and start punching each other from that specific position until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The fighters tap hands together twice to get going, and Ochoa is the aggressor although he walks through two low kicks and a takedown shot. Almabayev gets hold of the single and wrangles Ochoa to a knee but no further, as Ochoa springs back up. Ochoa goes after the Kazakhstan native, digging a body shot and firing off a knee up top. Almabayev ducks into a head kick but still manages to complete the takedown he was seeking. Ochoa scrambles as Almabayev is looking to pass, and he stands up and grabs hold of the neck of his opponent to threaten. Almabayev shakes out of it and knees his foe in the stomach. They trade some strikes on the inside and separate. Ochoa shrugs off a punch up top to nail Almabayev with a left hand and a knee, and Almabayev crashes through his hips to complete a takedown.
Almabayev lands in the guard, where he remains comfortably and gets off the occasional strike. Ochoa makes Almabayev think twice about smothering his foe freely thanks to a number of hammerfists off his back that have some surprising pop on them. Almabayev attempts to pass to the side, looking to work through the knee shield from the Peruvian. Ochoa throws up an armbar off his back from out of nowhere, and he is warned for grabbing Almabayev’s gloves to set it up. Ochoa loses the grip as Almabayev yanks out of the posture, but he immediately sets up a triangle choke to further threaten. Ochoa hooks his foot under his knee, holding onto the maneuver as the horn blows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
The flyweights meet in the middle, and Almabayev lands first with a low kick. He tries to follow his success with a looping right hand, and he wings an overhand right to the stomach that allows him to shoot in on Ochoa’s hips. Ochoa attempts a knee to catch Almabayev coming at him, and he is dragged to his seat when it does not hit the wrestler flush. Almabayev grabs the fence, and Herzog calls him on it and breaks them apart. Almabayev apologizes, but he goes right after Ochoa for another takedown, this time in the open cage. Ochoa jumps guard for a guillotine choke, and it is tight until it is not as Almabayev calmly wriggles his neck out. Ochoa sets up a triangle choke from his high guard off his back, but Almabayev is able to easily break out of it.
Almabayev frames off with elbows to hammer down on the Peruvian, and Ochoa fights back every movement with hammerfists or some sort of scramble. Ochoa manages to turn to his knees and get upright with 90 second to spare, and Almabayev thanks him for this with a body kick and a takedown shot. Ochoa stuffs this attempt and is pushed to the wall, where they knee one another in the guts. Ochoa knocks Almabayev back with an elbow, and Almabayev points down at the floor to suggest that he wants to brawl for the final minute. Ochoa does not oblige him, so Almabayev surges into action with a left hand and a double. Ochoa puts his back to the wall and elbows the Kazakh in the side of the melon, until he gets free with a few seconds left. Ochoa overswings a right hand, and Almabayev ducks beneath him and takes his back standing. The fight ends with Almabayev holding on from behind.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev (30-27 Almabayev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite the line swinging to make him an underdog. He notes Asu's flashy striking, dominant grappling, and ability to control range, while Jose Ochoa is on short notice. Angelo believes Asu's pace and pressure will be decisive, though he expects a close fight that may rely on judges. He placed a bet on Asu at -105.
Big Brady picks Jose Ochoa, citing his striking advantage and power. He believes Ochoa will stuff takedowns and get back up if taken down, then dominate on the feet. He notes Almabayev has low volume and no power, while Ochoa is a dangerous striker with finishing ability. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor sees Ochoa as a determined pressure fighter with fast hands who will punish Almabayev's rote responses. He notes that Almabayev struggled against Mennel Kopp's pressure and Ochoa is even more aggressive. He acknowledges the risk of Almabayev's clinch control but believes Ochoa's damage output will be decisive.
Almabayev is a much better grappler than Ochoa's previous opponent Duran. He should chain wrestle well, outscramble Ochoa, keep him in bad spots, and have striking success to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Jose Ochoa, noting his near-win over Lona Cavanaught on short notice and his good grappling defense. He believes Almabayev's competition has been weak and that Ochoa's length and finishing potential will be key. He predicts a first or second-round finish for Ochoa.
Zane picks Ochoa as well, calling it a 'hope pick' because he loves Ochoa's game. He worries about Almabayev's clinch control but notes Ochoa's takedown defense and ability to get back up. He believes Ochoa's striking creativity and power will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 62 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 61 of 115 | 53% | 47 of 95 | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 40 of 80 | 50% | 19 of 55 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 8 | 38 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 19 of 40 | 47% | 15 of 33 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 18 of 40 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-205), Almabayev (+170)
Round 1
Rather than throwing hands with Brandon Royval, Kape (20-7, 5-3 UFC) gets a new foe on relatively short notice. Having prevailed in his last 17 outings including four in the UFC, Kazakhstan’s own Almabayev (21-2, 4-0 UFC) is ready to become a title contender. The wild flyweight stylistic clash will be overseen by referee Mike Beltran, who brings the two to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. In alternate stances, they hand-fight early without engaging. Both men have their lead hands pop into each other until Almabayev springs into action with a powerful, audible body kick. Kape circles away and kicks the lead leg back. A lull in fight leads to a funny call from the audience, and Kape suddenly explodes forward with two left hands. Almabayev bounces off the wall and responds with an overhand right that comes up short, and Kape again charges him with a left. Almabayev ducks down and fires off a right hook and follows with a body kick, and Kape takes some time before again bursting straight ahead. Two quick blitzes from “Starboy” make Almabayev shrug his shoulders before kicking the body, and Kape brushes his arm to signals the kick did not land. Kape crashes in with a left, getting close enough to push himself past a spin kick from the Kazakhstan native. Kape reaches his opponent with two punches and wipes at his eye, with Almabayev possibly scraping him in the left eye when pushing off to escape. Kape cracks Almabayev again with his explosive, leaping punch, and Almabayev rebounds and stumbles off the fencing before gathering himself. Kape times a left and opens up with a right, hurting the streaking Almabayev and opening a cut around his left eye. Almabayev has a head kick blocked, and Kape attacks with a fury, snapping Almabayev’s head back and bouncing him off the fencing once more. Almabayev jabs, and he shoots for a single as Kape races at him. Kape shuts it down without concern, walks through a spinning elbow and puts six punches in rapid succession on Almabayev’s head and body. Kape’s swinging fists lead to Almabayev trying to grab hold of him, and Kape shoves him back and walks off. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
Almabayev’s eye has taken some serious damage from Kape’s knuckles, with blood appearing in the eyeball itself and not just leaking down his nose. Almabayev starts off the rounds in hopes of not letting Kape reach him by measuring out front kicks. A failed level change from Almabayev allows Kape to catch him with a punch, and Kape allows him to kick him so he can find his way in. As Kape backs off, he ducks to anticipatorily evade a spinning back kick. Kape measures more carefully than before, not lunging nearly as often, perhaps due to the threat of the takedown. Almabayev scores a left hand, and Kape brushes his shoulder off. When Kape threatens to come in, Almabayev fires off a head kick, and he leaps at Kape with a knee. Kape stands back, marches in to swing and gets clipped with a left hook. “Starboy” shrugs it off entirely and keeps advancing, backing off only when a spin kick flies by his face. Almabayev loads up on a power leg kick, turning his hips into the strike, and Kape quickly changes stances. Almabayev scores a left hand and fires off a head kick, and Kape barely blocks the kick in time. Almabayev splits the guard with an effective front kick, and Kape is stuck staring at him, feinting but not engaging with much more than single strikes. One such right hand scores, and Kape settles himself down and then suddenly leaps forward with a flying knee. When landing, he dings Almabayev with a right hand, and he lets Almabayev rebound off the wall and wags his finger at him. Almabayev rips a left hand to the body and narrowly misses a right over the top, and Kape walks him down and slips, recovering his footing to wipe his foot off. Kape then spins with a wheel kick, and he runs at Almabayev with fists flying. Almabayev signals to Beltran that he was poked in the eye, and Kape declares that it was a punch. After just a couple seconds, the replay official states it was a punch, and he restarts the fight. Kape charges again with leaping punches, catching Almabayev at the end of a right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
The flyweights are so amped to get back to it, Beltran has to back them off before clocking them in. Kape takes the center of the cage and has his guard up to defend a body kick, but a low kick from Almabayev lands cleanly and trips Kape up. Kape strides forward, hurling punches at the midsection of his opponent, and Almabayev circles away to take the sting out of them. Kape probes his way in and has his front leg kicked hard, and he shrugs it off to punch Almabayey square in the jaw. Almabayev strikes back just as cleanly, and Kape maintains the pressure to make Almabayev have to sprint away. Almabayev shoots for a takedown, and when it fails, he has to back off. Kape surges forward throwing hands, and Almabayev claims he was poked again in the eye and tries to call time out. Beltran is having none of it—even though it was actually a swipe on his eyeball—and Almabayev desperately shoots. Kape shuts it down and lays into Almabayev with concussive punches.
As Kape lays it on with knees and punches, Almabayev turns tail and runs away, and Kape sprints after him hitting him whenever he can reach him. Beltran follows them closely as the 125ers speed around the Octagon, and after he catches up to a retreating Almabayev, he decides to wave the fight off.
At that moment, Almabayev was shooting for a double, but Beltran may have interpreted the running from one end of the cage to the other as physically surrendering and intervened. There will be much to discuss regarding Beltran and how this fight played out, including two uncalled eye scrapes—but Beltran is the sole arbiter of the bout, and fighters cannot call time-out. There may also be some debate on the specific nature of the stoppage, as Beltran stepped in several seconds after Kape landed any strikes, and therefore would be classified differently than a standard finish like via punches or some specific blow. No matter the exact method, it goes down as a technical knockout for “Starboy,” who demands two things: a title shot, and for his daughter to be allowed in the cage and into his arms. The promotion ushers her in, and she asks if Kape won. He proudly says he did, and that he is the best. It is very likely that Kape will have an opportunity to prove he is indeed the best flyweight in the world in his next encounter, in a rematch with champion Alexandre Pantoja, who bested him in 2021. If that fight happens next, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Asu Almabayev R3 2:16 via TKO (Retirement)
Angelo picks Manel Kape because of his explosive striking and southpaw pressure, noting that Almabayev's takedown success (1/6 in his last fight) is a major concern. He believes Almabayev needs to threaten takedowns to neutralize Kape's striking, but doubts he can do so effectively. Angelo also mentions a potential live bet opportunity if Almabayev fails to secure early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Manel Kape, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Asu Almabayev is stepping up in competition and likely cannot hold Kape down. He expects Kape to stuff takedowns and win by decision, but warns that Kape sometimes fights passively.
Connor picks Kape, emphasizing that Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will make Almabayev work under pressure, unlike Nicolau who gave Almabayev free distance. He notes that Almabayev's approach against Nicolau was rudimentary and that Kape's speed and power will be a problem. Connor also mentions that Kape is much more talented than Nicolau and that Almabayev's level of competition hasn't been high.
The host expects Kape to use his defensive grappling to shut down Almabayev's game. Once Almabayev decides to strike, that will be the beginning of the end, as Kape should land more effective strikes and possibly find a knockout, but ultimately win on the scorecards over 25 minutes.
The Guru picks Manel Kape over Asu Almabayev. He believes Kape is the truth and will become champion. He praises Kape's recent performance against Bruno Silva and his takedown defense. He notes Kape's power advantage and finishing potential, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Kape because he is faster, more powerful, and more dynamic than Almabayev. He notes that Almabayev struggled against a similar counter-puncher in Nicolau, and Kape is a pressure counter-puncher who will maintain distance aggressively, forcing Almabayev to work under pressure. Zane acknowledges the risk of a boring decision loss but believes Kape's speed and power will find openings over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-175), Nicolau (+145)
Round 1
A ranked flyweight encounter will wrap up the prelims, as Nicolau (19-4-1, 7-3 UFC) wishes to save his place among the top 10 while on a skid. To do so, he will have to break the 16-fight win streak for the aggressive Kazakhstan native Almabaev (20-2, 3-0 UFC). Referee Keith Peterson will have hands full to keep up with these speedy competitors, although they show plenty of respect for another and not a lick of nonsense as they clap hands before engaging. Almabaev moves to the center of the cage, pawing out his jab, while Nicolau is more jittery on the outside feinting and faking. It takes 30 seconds for the first strike to land, a low kick from Almabaev. When Almabaev tries a second, Nicolau whizzes a right hand over the top just past Almabaev’s head. Almabaev kicks low and then chains another to the body, and Nicolau cannot make him pay for the blows. Almabaev darts in, missing the mark with a booming uppercut. Almabaev jabs the body, and Nicolau is singularly focused on counters. Almabaev spins with a wheel kick that buzzes the Brazilian’s noggin, and Nicolau is still stuck without any ideas. When Nicolau lashes out, Almabaev is there to catch him with a check left hook. Almabaev lands a spinning back kick to the ribs, and Nicolau backs off and eventually aims a left up top and a jab to the body. Almabaev lands another jab to the ribs and gets off a low kick before having to block a counter. Almabaev slams his shin in the midsection of his opponent, and he attempts a Superman punch that is just shy of the mark. Nicolau jabs out with a front kick, misses with a high kick and the tepid round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is a clap of hands to get things going, and Almabaev is quick to crowd his opponent with a right hook and a head kick on the other side. Nicolau delivers a clean calf kick, but it is one-and-done. Almabaev steps in with a knee to the body, and Nicolau catches it and thinks of taking the fight down. They land in 50-50 position and get out of it to reset, where Almabaev scores a spinning back kick to the sternum. Almabaev overswings and gets countered, and he prods out a front kick that brushes past the cheek of his adversary. They time short hooks at the same time, neither man willing to give much grown or commit to a great deal of offense. Nicolau watches an overhand right soar past him, pushing Almabaev away without landing his own. Almabaev shoots in for a single, and Nicolau hops back to the wall, grabs the fence and is dragged to a knee briefly. Nicolau pulls out of the attempt and catches Almabaev with a left hand, and when Almabaev dives after a single, Nicolau hammers him with elbows to the side of the head. Almabaev drags him down, and Nicolau pops up and threatens with a guillotine choke. Almabaev lifts his opponent’s leg up, and Nicolau snatches hold of a guillotine choke and has it locked down. Nicolau rolls to the side and nearly into mount, and Almabaev toughs it out and turns enough to survive. Nicolau gets to his feet, and Almabaev stands too, his shorts nearly down by his waist. Nicolau allows his opponent to pull his shorts back up before engaging, and he surges into action with a few lunging strikes. The round ends with Almabaev tossing out a left hand and a high kick.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
The last round kicks off with a glove touch, and Almabaev wants to get things going by tossing out a number of low kicks. Nicolau hand-fights and parries punches from up top, and Almabaev sits down on an uppercut that splits the guard at the same time as Nicolau fires. Nicolau stumbles, and Almabaev tackles him over and claims full mount. Under fire, the Brazilian takes further punishment as Almabaev tries to drum him out, and Nicolau pushes his feet off the fence and grabs hold of a leglock. Almabaev turns through what becomes a heel hook to reestablish himself on top, and he sits down heavily in half guard. Nicolau attempts another leglock, and once more Almabaev easily spins through it to never find himself in danger. Nicolau scrambles, turning to his knees, and Almabaev bowls him over to his back again. Almabaev in half guard smothers the Brazilian, nullifying his offense other than the occasional submission setup. Nicolau uses butterfly hooks on the hips to push Almabaev off of him, and he hacks at the Kazakhstani fighter with elbows from his back but is taking heavier strikes from the man on top of him. Nicolau scoots his way towards the fence but Almabaev turns him the right direction to stifle him from wall-walking. Almabaev remains busy while on top, landing punches and elbows without fear of reprisal. Nicolau gets up with seconds to spare, frustrated at himself for being shut down and likely on the losing end of a decision. Time expires, and Nicolau punches the cage wall.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (29-28 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Matheus Nicolau via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 77 of 109 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 | 1 | 11:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 29 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 3:52 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 29 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jose Johnson | 5 of 21 | 23% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jose Johnson | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 10 | 80% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Jose Johnson | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-470), Johnson (+360)
Round 1
There will be a fairly radical size discrepancy in this next flyweight tilt. At 5-foot-4, the not-undersized Almabaev (19-2, 2-0 UFC) aims to keep his mighty 15-fight win streak intact. As for his opponent, “No Way Jose” Johnson (16-8, 1-1 UFC) heard the critics saying “No Way” to his cut down to 125 pounds. At an even six feet, Johnson will become the tallest fighter in UFC flyweight history when he steps in the cage. Referee Herb Dean checks the two in as they bump fists, and they both try to find their range early. After about 20 seconds, Almabaev aims a leg kick, and when he is a few inches short, Johnson stands back and watches it zoom by as he showboats. Johnson uses his distance to jab with the ball of his foot and his fists, and he plants a heavy low kick on the lead wheel. When Johnson strikes with another kick, Almabaev decides he is sick of playing on the outside and grabs the kick out of mid-air and slings Johnson down to the mat with gravitas. Almabaev moves into the guard of his opponent, and Johnson is busy off his back slugging away with anything he can find. Johnson tries to kick off the hips in search of a sweep or escape, and when that fails, he lifts his legs up high for a possible triangle choke. Almabaev shrugs it off and stays as tight as he can on the six-footer, landing short shots to the body and the occasional right hand to the head. Johnson hacks with elbows off his back before hitting a sweep that allows him to stand back up. Almabaev clings to him from behind before dragging the taller man down, and when Johnson stands once more, Almabaev leaps to take his back. Almabaev gets one hook in and isolates the neck, and he slithers his right arm under the chin. Johnson hand-fights to break up the submission, and he claws Almabaev off of him. Almabaev drags him down to the floor for a second, and he hits a quick mat return and then one more. Johnson pops up every time he is grounded from this position, and Almabaev looks for a trip or some knees to the thigh to stay busy. Almabaev pulls Johnson down from behind, and Johnson spins around and works his way up. The positional exchange in the clinch is where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
There is no glove touch to start the round, as Almabaev instead wants to measure a perfect wheel kick that smashes into the side of the American’s head. Johnson takes it like a champ and does not so much as wobble, although he takes time to reset. This allows Almabaev to spin for a kick to the ribs, and he plants his feet and shoots for a double. Johnson bowls him over and lands in full mount, but Almabaev keeps moving and turns the taller man over. Johnson locks his legs around the head of his opponent with a triangle choke, but his left leg is beneath the armpit so Almabaev is not overly concerned. Johnson tries to move the submission around and regather his leg grip, and the Kazakh fighter stacks Johnson up until he breaks out of it. Johnson is a little lax when they split, allowing Almabaev to circle around, get both hooks in and start hunting for a rear-naked choke. Almabaev moves over to full mount rather than going for the choke, and this lets Johnson recover his butterfly hooks to push Almabaev back a smidge. Almabaev sits up and elbows him in the chops a few times, and Johnson closes his guard but is still getting worked. Almabaev keeps control from above, stifling the lanky striker and getting off ground-and-pound. Almabaev steps over to half guard while raining down right hands, and he disallows Johnson from any escape attempt. Johnson turns over to give his back up, and Almabaev welcomes this and takes it while getting a hook in from behind. Almabaev softens his man up with strikes until he latches on with a rear-naked choke, and the grip is not right so he lets it go. A few more punches get around the guard before the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Gloves get touched to begin the last round, and Almabaev introduces himself with a thudding leg kick and a spinning kick to the ribs. As he plants his feet after the second, Almabaev races forward and tackles Johnson to the floor. Johnson wall-walks to get upright, but Almabaev has his grip around the waist and ragdolls the taller man around the cage wall. Johnson remains on his feet, and he rides out the takedown try of the man from Kazakhstan to wind up in the top position. Almabaev scrambles and inadvertently gives his back up, and Johnson sneaks one hook in. Almabaev is warned for grabbing the inside of the gloves to turn himself about, and Johnson clings to him with a body triangle and keep the back. Almabaev keeps turning until he manages to get enough space in the body lock to spin and move into the guard. Johnson spams short, meaningless punches to the ear, and he slides his leg up for a high guard setup. Almabaev tosses the limb to the side and smacks him in the face with his right hand twice before jamming an elbow into Johnson’s mug. Almabaev steps over to half guard and thinks about setting up an arm-triangle choke, and he sits up to whack Johnson with wide-arcing hammerfists. Johnson appears irritated but in no danger, and Almabaev traps his right arm beneath his body. Almabaev releases it so he can line up a heavy right hand, and he shifts over to half guard on the other side. Johnson turns to get away, and Almabaev secures his back and locks down a body triangle. Almabaev sneaks in a few right hands around the guard to give Johnson something to think about, and he slides one arm around the chin and does not secure it on the other side. Johnson turns to try to break up the choke again, and Almabaev squeezes with every bit of his remaining energy on what looks to be a face crank. The forearm again slips beneath the jaw, and it is tight. Almabaev eats a surprisingly fierce elbow from Johnson, and he continues to crush with his submission arm. The choke does not succeed, and Johnson reaches the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Jose Johnson via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Asu confidently, citing his dominant wrestling, cardio, and ability to close distance. He notes Jose Johnson is a long Muay Thai striker with poor takedown defense, and Asu will take him down and control him. He expects Asu to be worth his DraftKings salary due to takedowns and potential finish.
Cody picks Almabayev but is hesitant due to the minus 600 line in a flyweight fight. He notes that Almabayev has good takedowns but poor top control, as he couldn't keep CJ Vergara down. He also highlights Jose Johnson's size (6 feet tall) and activity off his back, which could cause problems. Cody thinks Almabayev will likely win but the price is too high for comfort.
Daniel Vreeland picks Asu Almabayev as the favorite but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Jose Johnson's striking and scrambling ability but believes Almabayev's takedowns and ground game will be the difference. He notes Johnson gives up takedowns and is not a novice on the mat, but Almabayev should dominate if he gets top position.
Jacob picks Asu, questioning the love for Jose Johnson. He notes Jose was getting rolled by Chad Anheliger and needed a finish to avoid being 0-2. He thinks Asu's wrestling and scrambling are superior, and Jose's length won't help on the ground. He expects Asu to win easily.
Almabayev will drag the fight to the ground, but must be wary of Johnson's knees up the middle and long limbs. He will grind from top position and win on the scorecards. This is a bad stylistic matchup for Johnson making his flyweight debut.
Paul picks Almabayev, noting his well-rounded skills and takedown ability. He points out that Jose Johnson has been taken down frequently in the past and that Almabayev should be able to secure takedowns and control the fight. Paul expects Almabayev to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev, citing his good grappling that hasn't let him down, including dominant wins over Ode' Osbourne and CJ Vergara. He notes Jose Johnson has been taken down by worse grapplers and that Almabayev should be able to keep him down. He also comments on Johnson's extreme weight cut to flyweight, suggesting he will be frail and easy to toss around.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 66 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 44 of 77 | 57% | 85 of 132 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 9:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 23 of 34 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 25 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 28 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| C.J. Vergara | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 26 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 13 of 32 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 44 of 77 | 57% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 11 | 13 of 13 | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 25 | 64% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 10 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 8 of 12 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| C.J. Vergara | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 14 of 27 | 51% | 5 of 15 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| C.J. Vergara | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-535), Vergara (+400)
Round 1
For the third time in his last six fights, Vergara (12-4-1, 3-2 UFC) failed to make weight. He surrenders 30% of his purse Almabaev (18-2, 1-0 UFC), who has not engaged in a Zhekpe Zhek match unlike fellow flyweight countryman Bekzat Almakhan. While Vergara will be putting his two-fight win streak on the line, the 30-year-old from Kazakhstan has won his last 14 outings dating back to 2017. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Keith Peterson, who starts the nonsense-free fight as the two men touch gloves. Almabaev says hello with a vicious calf kick, dropping Vergara to his knees immediately. The American climbs back up, and he is met with a body kick and a right hand. Vergara keeps his hands extremely low, perhaps to prepare for a takedown entry, and Almabaev circles on the outside before spinning to kick him in the chest with a back kick. Vergara finally strikes at the one-minute mark, landing a single leg kick, and Almabaev answers with one to the ribs before shooting for a takedown. Vergara sprawls to defend it, and Almabaev re-enters in pursuit of a single-leg takedown. This time, the Kazakhstani fighter gets it, but only for a moment. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev stays pinned to him and manages to get a hook around the side while Vergara leans on the fencing. Vergara hand-fights to prevent another entry, and Almabaev turns the corner and drags Vergara to his knee. Almabaev hammers the thigh with a few knees before lifting Vergara up and slinging him to the mat. Vergara springs back up, and he stops a second high-amplitude attempt from his opponent. Almabaev lets Vergara turn, so that he can lift him up and slam him down once more. Vergara is able to return to his feet before long, and Almabaev remains tight goes to change levels. Vergara spins him around briefly, only to get warned for grabbing the fence. Vergara lands a knee to force a break, and Almabaev chases after him and drills him in the midsection with a spin kick. Vergara opens up with a big uppercut that gets Almabaev’s attention, and Almabaev responds with a shot in the open cage and succeeds in using a double-leg takedown to ground him. Almabaev moves to side control, and as Vergara turns, Almabaev jumps into full mount. Almabaev floats over to maintain top position as Vergara scrambles, and he ends the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 2
Almabaev advances out of his corner to move to the middle of the Octagon, and Vergara stays on the outer edge picking away with low kicks. Almabaev spins with a kick that lands in the chest, and he dances back before Vergara can reach him. Vergara lands a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand. Vergara leaves his hands by his side, and he raises one every so often to strike with. Almabaev takes a right hand, and he grabs hold of a single, runs the pipe and drags Vergara to the mat. Almabaev lands in guard and starts smacking Vergara with hammerfists, staying busy with ground-and-pound while working on a guard pass. Vergara slaps Almabaev in the side of the head with a palm, and Almabaev grinds on him and lands occasional strikes. Vergara looks for elbows off his back, and he keeps the Kazakhstani fighter in his guard. Almabaev slides to half guard and presses Vergara down to pursue an arm-triangle choke. Vergara sits up, and he gets his arm controlled like a seat belt and slugged in the face. Vergara turns to his side and stands, and Almabaev lifts him up and slams him to the canvas, where he lands in immediate back control. Vergara twists, and Almabaev flows and follows him to continue connecting with some offense. Vergara explodes but is unable to get off of his back, and he tries to scoot towards the wall. Almabaev lays into him with several unanswered right hands, until Vergara flattens himself out. Almabaev falls off the back when Vergara stands, and Vergara ducks a spinning back fist and blocks a head kick before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Round 3
Almabaev moves right to the center of the cage to initiate his offense in the final round, and Vergara stands before him and is ready to trade. Almabaev spins with a strike, and Vergara ducks it and counters with a big right hand. Almabaev shoots down low for a takedown, and Vergara answers with a knee that connects cleanly. Almabaev bounces back up, chases after Vergara and kicks him in the side. Vergara squares up and looks to unload with power punches, and that is when Almabaev shoots for a takedown and wrenches the Texan down to the mat. Almabaev circles around to take the back, and he gets both hooks in almost instantly. Vergara times a spin to escape the position, and the two get back to striking range. Almabaev whiffs on a spin, and Vergara sits down on a body kick. Almabaev aims a right up top, spins with a wheel kick that bangs into the side of the head, and he shoots. Vergara stuffs it, and he gets beaned with a right hand that wobbles him. Almabaev follows him and knees him in the head, and Vergara fires back to make Almabaev change his approach. Almabaev goes for another takedown when Vergara kicks high, and he succeeds in grounding Vergara temporarily. Vergara climbs back up, and Almabaev doggedly pursues a single. Vergara attempts a standing submission to threaten or force a break, and Almabaev steps back and spins with a back kick that does not land cleanly. Vergara loads up on heavy punches, and Almabaev retreats and resets. Vergara lands with a strike or two, but he throws so hard that Almabaev takes him down as the commentary booth groans in frustration as they sound like they are rooting for one fighter over the other rather than calling the action objectively. Vergara gets back up, and Almabaev moves around to take the back and drag Vergara from behind. Almabaev sets up a rear-naked choke, and Vergara hand-fights and keeps his neck free from danger to ride out the position and end the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev (30-27 Almabaev)
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. C.J. Vergara via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo is confident in Asu Almabayev, citing his wild striking, strong grappling, and cardio. He notes that if Tatu Riera could take down Vergara three times, Almabayev can too. He sees Almabayev as safe to parlay, contrasting him with point fighters he's wary of.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by third-round submission. He notes that Almabayev has good grappling and control, and that Vergara has been taken down and submitted in the past. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the mat and eventually find a submission over 15 minutes.
Cody thinks Almabayev's wrestling will be too much for Vergara, who has poor takedown defense. He expects Almabayev to chain wrestle and control the fight on the ground, possibly securing a submission.
Daniel picks Almabayev, believing he will dictate the pace and win by decision or submission. He notes Vergara is durable and well-rounded but not special anywhere. Daniel was initially low on Almabayev but was impressed by his performance against Ode' Osbourne.
Almabayev is a hot prospect who is very solid all around, but his best work is when he gets fights to the mat. He has impressive chain wrestling, using body locks and trips to drag opponents down. Vergara is a decent striker but lacks the power to keep Almabayev at bay, and his ground game is a weakness. I expect Almabayev to drag this fight to the ground, dominate from top position, and secure another submission victory.
Paul agrees, noting that Vergara has been taken down repeatedly and submitted in the past. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and submission skills will lead to a finish.
The MMA Guru is confident in Asu Almabayev due to his grappling advantage and C.J. Vergara's unimpressive UFC run. He notes Vergara has struggled against lower-level opponents and was dominated by Tatsuya Taira and Ode' Osbourne. He highlights Almabayev's dominant grappling win over Osbourne and predicts a first-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 26 of 40 | 65% | 52 of 78 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 4 of 18 | 22% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 26 of 40 | 65% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 21 of 31 | 67% | 14 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 25 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabaev (-185), Osbourne (+154)
Round 1
Gary Copeland will be the third man in the cage for this flyweight affair. They touch gloves and Almabaev opens with a low kick right away. Almabaev stays on the outside and attacks with an inside leg kick. Almabaev steps in and connects with an overhand right. Osborne shakes it off and looks for openings to attack. Almavaev loads up for another overhand right and shoots for a single leg takedown, planting Osbourne on his seat in the center of the cage. Almabaev pushes Osbourne to his back and settles into his opponent’s full guard. Almabaev works to create space for ground-and-pound, landing the occasional punch or elbow. Osbourne works his legs up and briefly threatens with a triangle before absorbing a solid left hand. Almabaev is content to work inside guard while methodically landing punches with either hand. Osbourne brings his leg up again, but Almabaev clears the legs and passes to side control. Almabaev lands an elbow that Osbourne doesn’t like, and he transitions to a modified guillotine choke. Osbourne survives until the horn. It's noteworthy that Almabaev is bleeding, presumably from an elbow Osbourne landed from his back.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabaev
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Round 2
Almabaev throws a head kick before shooting for a takedown. Osbourne does a good job using the fence to remain upright before separating from the clinch. Almabaev is throwing big strikes: a head kick, an overhand right and then a spinning kick, which is followed by a failed double leg. Almabaev goes for a couple low kicks, then gets deep on a body lock and trips Osbourne to the canvas. Almabaev works his way to Osbourne’s back. Osbourne gets to a knee before his foe jumps on his back and pulls him down with a body triangle in place. Almabaev lands some punches while hunting for the rear-naked choke. Osbourne briefly has wrist control before
Almabaev deftly slides his right arm around his opponent’s jaw. The choke isn’t completely under Osbourne’s neck, but the squeeze is tight.
Osbourne has no choice but to tap after a few seconds of resistance.
The Official Result
Asu Almabaev def. Ode Osbourne via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 3:11
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev despite it being his UFC debut, citing his flashy striking and dominant wrestling. He notes that Almabayev lifts opponents off the mat and controls them, which will exhaust Osbourne. He acknowledges Osbourne has power and can wrestle, but thinks he will be outmatched. Angelo has a half-unit bet on Almabayev at -155.
Big Brady likes Almabayev's wrestling and control, noting he is position-over-submission and doesn't make mistakes. He thinks Almabayev will push a wrestling-heavy pace and has a cardio advantage. He acknowledges Osbourne is dangerous off his back and has power, but expects Almabayev to win by decision, staying safe on top.
Cody picks Almabayev by submission at +300, citing his strong takedown entries and transitions to the back. He notes Osbourne's poor takedown defense and history of being submitted. He believes Almabayev will wrestle heavily and eventually find a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne, expressing skepticism about Almabayev's level of competition. He notes that Almabayev struggled against aging UFC vets and has a low-output style. Levi believes Osbourne is more active and dangerous on the feet, with good length and submissions off his back. He is concerned about Osbourne's durability and tendency to play off his back, but thinks Osbourne's offensive skills can overcome Almabayev's wrestling.
James thinks the line is too wide favoring Almabayev. He notes Almabayev is a grappler but may not consolidate position for 15 minutes, while Osbourne is a good athlete with a decent sprawl. He also mentions the UFC debut trend often leads to underperformance. He picks Osbourne outright but says he wouldn't go crazy betting him.
Almabayev is a solid Kazakhstani wrestler with a 17-2 record, showing good takedowns and reversals. Osbourne has cardio issues after the first round and is expected to drown under pressure. Unless Osbourne lands a Hail Mary knockout or submission early, Almabayev will finish him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Almabayev, citing Osbourne's struggles against grapplers and his poor takedown defense. He notes Almabayev's wrestling and cardio, and expects him to grind out a decision or get a submission. He is confident in the pick despite Almabayev's debut.
The host picks Ode' Osbourne as an underdog, citing his UFC experience against legit competition versus Almabayev's padded resume. He notes Osbourne's southpaw stance, reach advantage, and improved grappling, but acknowledges the risk if Almabayev gets takedowns. He sees value at +148 and believes Osbourne can keep it standing and use his athleticism.
Charles Johnson - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-250); Johnson (+200)
Round 1
The UFC Baku main card is about to get a jolt of caffeine, as there’s nothing quite like a men’s flyweight scrap to break up the grind. Almabayev and Johnson are ready to go. The third man in the Octagon is Herb Dean. The fourth man in the Octagon is Johnson’s hair. Both men are in orthodox stance, and immediately trade fast kicks, Johnson to the legs, Almabayev to the body. Johnson is switching stances frequently in the early going. Almabayev stalks forward, stance-agnostic: he’s simply kicking the front leg, whichever it happens to be. Almabayev nails Johnson with a left hook, then another. That one draws an acknowledging nod from the American. Almabayev steps into the pocket and, with Johnson perhaps expecting the left hand again, instead grabs a single-leg and treetops him for an easy takedown. Almabayev parks in Johnson’s spidery guard, and Johnson does not let him get comfortable, using his arms and butterfly hooks to keep him off balance. Almabayev stands up out of Johnson’s guard, and when Johnson sits up, he slaps on a guillotine choke. Johnson fights the hands diligently, and Almabayev gives up on the submission. Almabayev lets Johnson up, and takes him right back down, this time into side control. Johnson regains guard just before the 30-second mark. The horn sounds with Almabayev dropping punches from full guard.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle of the cage and unleash a flurry of punches on each other, with both men landing. Almabayev stalks forward behind a pawing lead hand, then spins and digs a heel kick into Johnson’s midsection. Almabayev lands a right hand. Johnson is still in possession of his faculties and defending himself, but he’s getting lit up right now. Almabayev tags Johnson with a punch that knocks him down, mostly off-balance, and Johnson springs back up. Almabayev throws another spinning back kick, and this one lands squarely on Johnson’s johnson with a “clock” that can be heard halfway to Samarkand. Joe Rogan, in his compound outside of Austin, Texas, screams about Thai steel cups. Dean gives Johnson a respite and Almabayev a warning, and they go back to work. Almabayev secures a glass-smooth takedown and is all over Johnson, staying snug in top position as Johnson scrambles and looks for a knee shield to get some separation. Almabayev drops a couple of hard punches, then looks to take Johnson’s back. Johnson defends well, getting back to full guard, but Almabayev is relentless, and he makes his way to Johnson’s back as Johnson kneels in the center of the cage. At the 10-second clapper, Almabayev tries for a rear-naked choke, but can’t get anything going before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 3
Johnson’s corner tells the former Olympic steeplechaser between rounds that this is a sprint, not a marathon, and he comes right out with a couple of long punches and a front kick before giving up yet another easy takedown. Almabayev blunders into a reverse triangle choke and it looks uncomfortable, but not immediately threatening. Johnson gives up the choke and Almabayev settles into his half guard, heavy and low on top. Johnson is active on bottom, scrambling and offering a dozen different looks, and Almabayev just floats brilliantly, staying a step ahead of everything. Johnson turns his back and Almabayev sinks in a body triangle, taking back mount in the middle of the cage with half the round left.
Almabayev is riding a bit high but switches from a body triangle to conventional hooks, then grabs Johnson’s leg, wraps the body triangle back up and hits a Suloev stretch!
Are you kidding me? After such a wrestling and grappling masterclass, what a perfect valedictory by Asu Almabayev.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Charles Johnson R3 3:33 via Submission (Suloev Stretch)
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting him to outwrestle Johnson. He thinks Almabayev is craftier and has better wrestling than Johnson's previous opponents. He notes Johnson tends to struggle against fellow veterans and that the fight likely goes the distance.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, citing his consistent wrestling and cardio. He thinks Johnson is unreliable and that Almabayev's takedown threat will win rounds. AJ notes Johnson's getup game but believes Almabayev's accuracy and mixing of strikes will secure a decision.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.
Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.
Angelo considers Charles Johnson plus 3.5 at even money, thinking Johnson can win a round and that the fight likely goes to decision. He notes that plus 3.5 covers a win, split decision loss, or clean 29-28 loss, making it a good bet at even money.
Angelo picks Almabayev, noting that Johnson stays on the outside and lacks forward pressure, which Almabayev needs to be effective. He thinks Almabayev can do what he wants without pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.
Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.
Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.
The host expects this fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He believes Almabaev's ability to mix in grappling at key moments and land big shots on the feet will keep Johnson on the back foot, leading to a decision win for Almabaev.
Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.
Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.
The Guru picks Almabayev via decision, but admits he doesn't have a strong read. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and conditioning will be key, but acknowledges Johnson's knockout power. He is not confident and spends little time on the breakdown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 85 of 162 | 52% | 110 of 189 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 73 of 136 | 53% | 101 of 171 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 38 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 54 of 88 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Bruno Silva | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 49 of 83 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 85 of 162 | 52% | 43 of 101 | 30 of 46 | 12 of 15 | 61 of 132 | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 73 of 136 | 53% | 52 of 106 | 14 of 21 | 7 of 9 | 71 of 131 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 18 of 34 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 26 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 33 of 60 | 55% | 17 of 37 | 10 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 56 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 27 of 53 | 50% | 18 of 39 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 34 of 68 | 50% | 19 of 46 | 13 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 50 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Bruno Silva | 34 of 64 | 53% | 28 of 56 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-200); Silva (+170)
Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. Silva with an inside low kick early. Johnson shoots behind a punch. Silva defends and they’re in the clinch. Johnson lands a hook on the break. Johnson fakes a shot behind a left. Johnson with a front kick. The American shoots from long distance and Silva defends easily. Silva shoves his foe into the fence. Silva backs off. A right lands for Johnson, who follows with a leg kick. A sharp right connects for the Brazilian. Silva kicks the body. Johnson appears to be bothered by the pressure. Silva clinches again and locks his hands. Johnson lands an elbow in close quaters and Silva backs off. Silva lands in an exchange. They trade low kicks. Silva with a right as Johnson moves forward. Johnson partially lands a high kick. Johnson mixes in a low kick and a front kick. Silva answers by kicking the body. Silva keeps the pressure on late in the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Round 2
Johnson kicks the body and they trade in the pocket. Silva blocks a head kick. Silva is pressuring and Johnson is forced to defend a takedown. Johnson lands a knee and shoves his foe away. A jab lands for Johnson before Silva shoots. Johnson denies the takedown and the flyweights clinch against the fence. Silva backs off and Johnson lands a combination. A kick by Silva lands below the belt and time is called. Johnson is ready to go right away. They trade low kicks. Silva again looks for the takedown, shoving Johnson into the fence. Johnson lands a knee before they separate. Johson lands a kick and Silva counters. A straight left gets through for Johnson. Silva clinches behind an uppercut and they break quickly. Johnson fires a high kcik, but it doesn’t land clean. Another uppercut for Silva, who clinches with his opponent again. Johnson lands a short elbow in close. Silva lands a combination against the fence. A body kick lands for Johnson. The flyweights clash heads in the clinch and Johnson seemed to get the worst of it. Time is called. Silva fires a front kick and it lands low. It’s the second low blow of the round, and Johnson is in more pain than he was from the first foul. No point is taken, however. Johnson grabs a leg but lets it go. Silva with a body kick before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Round 3
Johnson catches a kick and lets the leg go. Johnson lands a left and they clinch. Inside leg kick for Johnson, and they clinch in the center of the cage. Silva shoves Johnson into the fence. Silva drops low in pursuit of the takedown, but Johnson defends well. Jonson jabs and they trae in close quarters. Both men land before the flyweights clinch. They battle for position before separating. This time Johnson initiates the clinch. Silva lands a combination at range and he’s pressuring Johnson, who is in defense mode. Silva ties up with his opponent against the cage. Johnson denies a takedown attempt. Johnson with a high kick on the break. Silva tries a spinning back elbow. Johnson with kicks and a right hand in hopes of creating space. Silva closes the distance again, shoving Johnson into the fence. He briefly gets the American down, but he’s up in short order. Silva moves in and lands an uppercut before clinching. They battle it out in the clinch, and Johnson lands a nice knee. Silva moves forward and goes back to the uppercut. Jonson responds with a slashing elbow. Silva keeps moving forward. but Johnson is landing plenty of offense. Both men are slugging it out in the waning moments of the fight. Johnson is finding the mark quite often. Another elbow lands for Johnson. They trade right up until the final horn, with Silva getting in a few more shots.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (30-27 Johnson)
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Bruno Silva via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Charles Johnson but admits nervousness due to Bruno Silva's one-punch knockout power. He notes Johnson's excellent footwork, hand speed, and cardio, and believes if Johnson gets going early, he can avoid the big shot and win a decision. He acknowledges Johnson has been knocked out before but thinks his high IQ will prevail.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson to win by third-round knockout, but expresses wariness due to Johnson's recent knockout loss and chin concerns. He likes the stylistic matchup, noting Silva's front-loaded power and tendency to fade, but worries Johnson might get knocked out early. He calls Johnson inconsistent.
Cody picks Bruno Silva as a dog, citing his wrestling, power, and durability. He notes Johnson's takedown defense issues and recent knockout loss. He thinks Silva can win by decision or submission.
Connor also picks Charles Johnson, emphasizing that Bruno Silva lacks the ability to adjust strategically, while Johnson can figure out his opponent as the fight progresses. He notes that Silva's wins come from opponents making the same mistakes, which Johnson does not do. Connor sees Johnson's adaptability as the key factor.
James picks Charles Johnson to win by decision, but expresses concern about Johnson's quick return after a knockout loss. He notes Johnson's superior cardio, volume, and tools, but worries about his durability and potential recklessness. He believes Johnson is the better fighter overall but is uncertain how he will approach the fight.
The host picks Johnson to win by decision, expecting him to outclass Silva on the feet. He highlights Johnson's reach advantage, defensive grappling, and ability to get back to his feet quickly. He believes Johnson's striking will be too much for Silva, and that Silva's power and grappling won't be enough to overcome Johnson's technical edge.
Paul picks Bruno Silva, noting he bets him every fight. He likes his wrestling and power, and thinks he can outgrapple Johnson. He expects a close fight but Silva has value at plus money.
The Guru picks Charles Johnson, believing he will walk down Bruno Silva as the fight progresses. He notes Johnson's size advantage (5'9" vs 5'4") and reach, and that Silva fights in bursts and lacks consistent finishing ability. He predicts a TKO in the second round.
Zane picks Charles Johnson, citing Johnson's ability to adjust and evolve during fights, unlike Bruno Silva who tends to make the same mistakes repeatedly. He notes that Silva's wins come against fighters who repeat errors, while Johnson adapts and finds solutions. Zane acknowledges Silva's danger but believes Johnson's flexibility gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)
Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.
Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.
Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.
James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.
The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 52 of 89 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 59 of 120 | 49% | 60 of 121 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 37 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 1 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 38 of 64 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 44 of 81 | 54% | 18 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 20 of 22 | 37 of 71 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 59 of 120 | 49% | 32 of 83 | 21 of 26 | 6 of 11 | 53 of 111 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 14 of 25 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 36 of 65 | 55% | 17 of 37 | 14 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 34 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 30 of 56 | 53% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 23 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 23 of 55 | 41% | 15 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 48 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Blue-chip flyweight Kavanagh will look to keep his professional record spotless against Johnson, who saw a four-fight win streak snapped at UFC Vegas 103 in March. The third man in the Octagon will be Jim Perdios. Johnson is southpaw, Kavanagh orthodox to start things off, but Johnson is fluid, switching briefly to match his foe. Kavanagh catches him mid-switch with a leg kick that nearly takes him off his feet. Johnson throws up a half-speed body kick to the open side, and Kavanagh comes back with a much harder one that hurts the taller man. Kavanagh with a stiff leg kick. Johnson is reeling from the speed and power of Kavanagh’s kicks. Kavanagh lands two more hard body kicks, and Johnson clinches and drives him to the fence. They disengage a moment later and trade kicks in open space. Johnson takes the front foot, marching forward, and Kavanagh meets him with a pair of hooks to the head. Johnson shakes them off and keeps coming forward, but Kavanagh is picking him apart with kicks to the legs and body, interspersed with punches upstairs. The horn sounds.
10-9 Kavanagh.
Round 2
They touch gloves to open Round 2 and Johnson is immediately on the offensive, coming forward with long kicks up the middle. Kavanagh gives ground, circles out and then plants his feet, meeting Johnson with a one-two. Johnson changes levels and shoots into a front headlock. Johnson remains calm and passes to side control, where Kavanagh wisely bails on the choke and scrambles to his feet. Johnson shoots again, and once again Kavanagh snares his neck. This time the guillotine choke looks tight, and Kavanagh falls to guard. Johnson pulls his head out and goes to stand, only to have Kavanagh toss him back to the canvas. They scramble back up and return to striking near the center of the cage. Kavanagh slips after a kick but pops right back up. Two minutes left in the round, and Johnson absorbs a right cross. Johnson surges forward, but Kavanagh slips laterally and tags him with a punch. Johnson enters the pocket and lands a level elbow, probably his best single strike of the fight so far. Johnson drives Kavanagh to the fence and unloads with a flurry of hooks to the body. Johnson breaks away and when Kavanagh steps into range,
Johnson eats a short left hand, then retaliates with a massive right that completely wrecks the Englishman, who never brought his guard back up after landing his own punch.
Kavanagh goes down in a heap, the follow-up blows a mere formality as Perdios dives in for the stop. “InnerG” has derailed yet another red-hot flyweight prospect in the UFC. Fantastic comeback finish.
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Lone'er Kavanagh R2 4:35 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.
Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.
Connor picks Kavanagh largely on vibes, citing Kavanagh's ability to understand what wins rounds and his good footwork. He notes that Kavanagh is an impactful kicker and can neutralize opponents, and that Johnson may lose track of the fight in a slow-paced bout. However, he acknowledges the matchup is close and could go either way.
The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.
Zane picks Charles Johnson, reasoning that Kavanagh has fought raw prospects who make mistakes, while Johnson is a seasoned veteran who can capitalize on Kavanagh's tendency to give opponents chances. He notes that Johnson's craft and experience should be enough to edge out a close decision, though he admits it feels like a wrong pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 66 of 156 | 42% | 87 of 183 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 55 of 139 | 39% | 59 of 146 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 19 of 46 | 41% | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 51 of 96 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 18 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 66 of 156 | 42% | 28 of 104 | 23 of 32 | 15 of 20 | 46 of 129 | 20 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 55 of 139 | 39% | 42 of 117 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 118 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 15 of 41 | 36% | 5 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 9 | 13 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 14 of 33 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 14 of 37 | 37% | 7 of 22 | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 32 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 19 of 46 | 41% | 14 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 39 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 37 of 78 | 47% | 16 of 56 | 15 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 59 | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Ramazan Temirov | 15 of 49 | 30% | 14 of 43 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 40 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Temirov (-115), Johnson (-105)
Round 1
A bit leaner than originally intended, the UFC rolls into the Apex station with an even 10 fights on the billing. The event is light on ranked relevance and meaningful matchups from a championship perspective, but each bout means the world to the participants so they cannot be dismissed before they happen. The action starts off in the flyweight division, with a solid fight that has no place in the curtain jerker spot. With four straight wins in his pocket, rising talent Johnson (17-6, 6-4 UFC) wants to go five in a row and stamp himself as a contender at 125 pounds. Standing in his way will be streaking Uzbekistan native Temirov (18-3, 1-0 UFC), who may have only earned one win in the UFC thus far but enters the bout the victor in his last 10 outings. Someone’s win streak is about to come to a screeching halt, and referee Jason Herzog will be there every step of the way. The fighters touch gloves, and the combat begins. Johnson assumes the center of the cage and works his way forward, switching stances to angle his way in. When Temirov does not back off much, Johnson backpedals. This gives Temirov confidence to wing an overhand right and a spinning back kick, and the former catches “InnerG” on the jaw. Johnson shakes it off and bounces off the fencing, and Temirov bears down on him with a looping left. Johnson responds with a knee up the middle, and he follows with a front kick on the chin. Temirov clips him with a big right hand and hurts him. Johnson hits his back and rolls forward to pursue a desperate takedown, stripping up Temirov’s balance but not grounding him for long. Both men climb back up, and Temirov is firmly in the driver’s seat throwing bombs. Johnson takes them well enough but is taking damage, and he gets Temirov to back away momentarily thanks to a groin shot. Herzog checks on Temirov’s condition, who waves him away and wants to keep swinging. Johnson strafes left and right, but Temirov is on him with big punches and flashy strikes. Johnson remains composed as he keeps up his guard, only to walk directly into a check left hook. Johnson’s front kick forces Temirov to back off, and he throws a body kick that gets caught. With Johnson’s leg under his armpit, the Uzbekistani fighter slings a right hand that knocks Johnson off his feet. Johnson jumps back up and rushes forward, punching his way forward until Temirov fires off a spinning back fist. Johnson surges forward and eats another spinning back fist, but the more damaging blow is a left to the liver from “Temurlan.” The concussive blows from Temirov keep dropping Johnson down to a knee, which may or may not be registered as a knockdown but still matters from a damage standpoint. Johnson stands his ground and fires back, and the two trade blows until the bell sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Temirov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Temirov
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Temirov
Round 2
The fighters tap gloves to get going, and Johnson forces the issue with pressure and parries a right hook. Temirov darts in with a looping left and then a right, and Johnson’s head movement keeps him safe from harm until he presses in to tie Temirov up and grab hold of a single-leg takedown. Johnson lowers himself to the mat to try for greater leverage, but he cannot ground the man from Uzbekistan and backs off. Temirov goes wide with a haymaker of a right hand, and Johnson prods out with a jab and a low kick. Johnson presents a knee when Temirov loads up, but Temirov is still able to connect with at least one big strike. The huge punches from Temirov keep coming, and Johnson’s evasiveness saves him from the worst of it. Johnson slips in an uppercut when sliding away, and he has another kick caught that results in him getting knocked off his feet. Johnson zips back up to his feet unconcerned, and he takes a clean right hand to the ribcage. Temirov reaches out with a left and rips the body with a kick, and he intercepts the advancing “InnerG” with power punches. Johnson chases after his foe, who is on his bike dashing from left to right. Johnson lunges in with a huge swing, and the quicker Temirov sticks him and moves effectively. Johnson probes with a left hand, but he gets popped with a left on the way out. Temirov flashes a jab that wobbles Johnson’s knees momentarily, and he uses a few more to redden the nose of his opponent. Johnson gets in the pocket and starts to trade, but a left hand from Temirov slams into his face and forces him to stop and blink it out. Johnson pushes forward to get hold of his opponent and level change, but he settles for an elbow up top to break. Johnson uses awkward angles to get in and land a few shots, and Temirov loads up with a bomb of a right hand that smacks Johnson in the beak a slight bit after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Temirov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Temirov
Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and Johnson springs behind it to fire off a pair of punches up top. Temirov catches the subsequent body kick, and this time Johnson does not get decked with the overhand right. Johnson takes his leg back, dodges a spinning wheel kick and crashes the pocket to trade. Johnson backs his man up against the fence and works the body with a right hand and a kick, and Temirov retreats along the outer edge of the cage. Both men land at the same time, and Johnson takes it a little harder and is therefore slower to give one back. Temirov punches his way into a tackling takedown, putting Johnson on his seat for a second. Johnson jumps back up and breaks out of the tie-up, and he starts starting punches together while Temirov might be slowing just a hair. Johnson gives chase, unafraid of what comes back his way, and he tees off on a stalling Temirov with a flurry of fists. Johnson is cognizant of the power swings that occasionally come back, and he pays attention and counters while splitting the guard with uppercuts when he can find them. Johnson takes a right hand and wipes his face, and he goes back to rushing after his foe. Johnson blasts the lead leg twice, and Temirov’s balance appears shaken. Just when Johnson is about to attack, Temirov wings a massive right hand that stuns his opponent. Johnson shakes out the cobwebs and continues pressing the action, landing a few long strikes to work his way in. Johnson pounds the body and ends the combo with an uppercut, and Temirov escapes. Johnson probes out with a jab, and Temirov does the same and loops two big hooks after it. Johnson swings with bad intentions, opening himself up to a takedown attempt from the fighter from Uzbekistan. Johnson shuts it down and pushes Temirov against the wall, and he complains to Herzog that Temirov is grabbing the inside of his gloves. Herzog slaps Temirov’s hand, and Johnson pursues a single and bails on it to score a right on the break. Temirov stands firm and plants a one-two on the jaw, and he follows with a spin kick that goes wide. Johnson slips and responds with a right hand, and Temirov grips him tightly and pushes him against the wall. When Johnson frees himself from the clinch, the horn sounds. It might all come down to how the second round is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Temirov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Johnson)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Temirov)
The Official Result
Ramazonbek Temirov def. Charles Johnson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo slightly leans towards Ramazan Temirov, citing his power and the judges' tendency to favor damage over clean technique. He acknowledges that Charles Johnson is more technical and could win a decision if he fights perfectly, but believes Temirov's power and aggression might sway the judges. He does not bet on this fight due to its razor-thin nature.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing his superior experience, cardio, and output. He notes that Ramazan Temirov relies on power shots but flyweight knockouts are rare, and Johnson has never been finished. He expects Johnson to win by decision, and even made a bet that if Johnson wins, he'll buy a 'Scallet Gang' t-shirt.
The host believes Temirov is a future title contender and will showcase his potential this weekend. He highlights Temirov's footwork, angle cutting, and explosive approach in the pocket, expecting his power shots to be more impactful. He predicts a knockout within the first two rounds.
The Guru picks Charles Johnson over Ramazan Temirov. He acknowledges Temirov's danger and finishing ability but doubts he can land a KO shot on Johnson, who has a great chin, good cardio, and range. He notes Johnson's win over Joshua Van and close fight with Sumudaarji. He predicts a decision win for Johnson, possibly a late TKO if Temirov slows down.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 65 of 150 | 43% | 84 of 177 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 149 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 1 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 34 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 17 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 65 of 150 | 43% | 42 of 113 | 15 of 22 | 8 of 15 | 49 of 123 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 17 |
| Sumudaerji | 75 of 144 | 52% | 41 of 96 | 7 of 15 | 27 of 33 | 68 of 135 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Sumudaerji | 24 of 43 | 55% | 12 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 14 | 20 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 30 of 60 | 50% | 20 of 41 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 8 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 17 |
| Sumudaerji | 23 of 44 | 52% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 16 of 40 | 40% | 10 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Sumudaerji | 28 of 57 | 49% | 14 of 38 | 3 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 26 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-225), Mudaerji (+185)
Round 1
Once with his back firmly against the wall, Johnson (16-6, 5-4 UFC) has given himself plenty of breathing room with a three-fight win streak. While he has plenty of momentum on his side, the matchmaking results him in facing Mudaerji (16-6, 3-3 UFC), who has lost his last two. Whether fortune continues to smile on “InnerG” or the Chinese fighter gets back in the win column, referee Mark Smith will be there for it every step of the way. Fists are bumped, and Johnson walks through a leg kick to immediately swarm Mudaerji with a flurry of fists. Johnson pressures Mudaerji up to and against the wall, kneeing him when they tie up. Johnson lifts knees to the gut while “The Tibetan Eagle” is pinned against it, and Mudaerji tries to get away and ultimately wrenches his way out and raps a right hand on the side of Johnson’s dome. Johnson shakes it off and plods forward, absorbing a few punches and a flush calf kick so he can charge in with his own offense. Johnson misses his strikes, dodges a low kick and keeps marching forward. Mudaerji sticks his man with a calf kick and jabs him to mix things up, and Johnson preemptively picks his leg up after these kicks start to add up. Mudaerji goes on the inside with two kicks, and Johnson sits down on a right hook to drive Mudaerji back. Mudaerji steps in with an elbow, and he flicks out a few jabs and splits the guard with a left. Mudaerji batters the front leg with a kick, and Johnson eats a jab and drops his hands to reset. Johnson checks a kick when crashing the pocket, and he loads up on power punches to the body. Johnson ties him up, and he knees his man in the chest and thighs while Mudaerji is warned for grabbing inside the glove. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow to break, and he keeps his volume high by picking jabs and low kicks from his preferred range. Johnson crowds his man and unleashes a big right hand, only to get pulled into a Thai clinch and a sharp knee on the chin. Johnson frantically chases after his opponent, loading on up big strikes and forcing Mudaerji to ricochet off the fencing. Mudaerji dodges and weaves the worst of the attacks coming his way, and Johnson backs him against the wall and loads up on him. Johnson lets him have it until the bell sounds mid-exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up to get going in the second stanza, and Johnson dashes out of his corner to engage. Mudaerji is prepared to defend the initial blitz, succeeding in staving off the most threatening of the strikes. Mudaerji keeps shifting and moving actively, occasionally getting backed to the wall but never truly cornered. Mudaerji catches Johnson coming in with a right hand, and he scores two low kicks before Johnson can get to him. Johnson goes high with a kick that bounces off the guard, and he stomps the knee with his foot twice. Mudaerji shifts to the left to tag Johnson with a straight strike, and he flicks out a front-leg side kick and a number of punches to follow. Mudaerji wings big right hands that land behind the head, and he stumbles Johnson coming forward thanks to a low kick. Johnson finds his range with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji keeps moving and did not take the brunt of it. Mudaerji lines up a left hook around the guard, and Johnson barely blocks it in time. Mudaerji intercepts Johnson coming in once more, with Johnson leaving his hands low after throwing big. Johnson runs forward, hands by his side, and he jacks Mudaerji in the jaw with a vicious right hand. Mudaerji tries to escape, but Johnson is a dog with a bone chasing after him. Johnson backs Mudaerji to the fence and uppercuts him so hard, Mudaerji’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Johnson lays into his opponent with a long barrage of punches, hurting Mudaerji badly and putting him down. Johnson tries to finish the job, swinging his way into the guard, where Mudaerji manages to survive and circle around to threaten with a triangle that transitions into an armbar. Johnson fights through it, gets put on his back, fights back up and somehow puts Mudaerji on the mat. Mudaerji sweeps him as soon as his seat hits the floor, and a mad exchange of grappling magic ensues until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Round 3
The third round kicks off with Mudaerji tough as nails ready and willing to trade. Mudaerji sticks out two front kicks, spins with a wheel kick and smashes it on the side of Johnson’s dome. The forward pressure of Mudaerji allows him to trip Johnson up, and he slams the American to the mat. Johnson jumps back up and meanders forward, checking kicks but otherwise breathing hard and not striking. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, potshotting Johnson coming forward while Johnson’s offense is practically nonexistent. Johnson grits his teeth after taking a few jabs to plow forward with telegraphed hooks, and the Chinese fighter sees them coming from a mile away. Johnson slings a right to open up a straight left, and the latter catches Mudaerji on the chin. Mudaerji chops his front leg back a few times, and he turns his hips into a body kick and then resets to land one more to the inner calf of “InnerG.” Johnson stalks Mudaerji down, walking through strikes but taking more than he is landing back. Johnson’s pressure results in a brief clinch, and Mudaerji fights his way out of it and just misses with a head kick. Mudaerji times a level change when Johnson wings a right hand, and Johnson reverses him with a throw to put “The Tibetan Eagle” on his back. Mudaerji scrambles wildly to get to his feet, and he breaks away from a clinch with an overhand right. Mudaerji puts three punches on the chin as Johnson shoots for a takedown, and he sets up a brabo choke to hurl Johnson to his knees. Johnson fights the hands to break up the submission, and he drops to one knee so he does not absorb a knee from the Chinese fighter. Johnson and Mudaerji swing it out right to the final bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (29-28 Mudaerji)
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Su Mudaerji via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.
The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.
Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 67 of 133 | 50% | 72 of 140 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 88 of 191 | 46% | 90 of 195 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 27 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 44 of 80 | 55% | 46 of 83 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 44 of 83 | 53% | 44 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 0 | 36 of 100 | 36% | 36 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joshua Van | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 67 of 133 | 50% | 44 of 106 | 17 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 60 of 123 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Joshua Van | 88 of 191 | 46% | 44 of 124 | 25 of 41 | 19 of 26 | 84 of 184 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 22 of 46 | 47% | 13 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 37 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Joshua Van | 44 of 80 | 55% | 18 of 41 | 13 of 23 | 13 of 16 | 41 of 74 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 44 of 83 | 53% | 30 of 66 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 36 of 100 | 36% | 19 of 74 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 10 | 36 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joshua Van | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Van (-205), Johnson (+170)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims is the flyweights, who will likely engage in a high-paced frenzy of feet and fists. Van (10-1, 3-0 UFC), training out of 4oz Fight Club in Texas, comes in on an eight-fight win streak with stoppages in six of those. While he has only won two in a row, Johnson (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is on the first winning stretch of his UFC career as he has already picked up two decisions this year. This speedy affair will be joined in the cage by referee Joe Coca, and it kicks off with an appropriately quick glove touch. Johnson leads off in a hurry with a leg kick, a jab to the body and a high kick. Van blocks a subsequent body kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend a jab. Johnson picks at him from distance, mixing his attack up to all targets. As Johnson crashes forward, he clips Van with a right hand, and Van takes it flush and does not bat an eye. Johnson stays active with several chopping low kicks, flicking out jabs and flustering Van. Van tries to close the distance with his own strikes, but Johnson is far more active than the self-described slow starter. Johnson peppers him with jabs and low kicks, pushing out a front kick to make Van back away. Van pushes in with a jab and an overhand right, and he uses it to tie Johnson up. “InnerG” turns him around and pounds Van in the thigh and breadbasket with knees, and Van tries to fight out of it to no avail. Johnson shoots in for a double, and Van stonewalls him and backs him away with his own jab. Van protects his ribs with a kick and sets his right hand on the chin. Johnson strings together three punches in response, and he brushes his face to say Van did not land. Van ignores this and touches him two more times with an overhand right, and Johnson stumbles and escapes when backed to the cage. Van brings up a knee that bounces into the cup, and Johnson tells Coca he is fine and that there is no stoppage necessary. Van walks Johnson down, fighting behind a jab and landing right hands to follow. Van knocks his man off his feet, and Johnson defends with an armbar off his back. Johnson jumps back to his feet when Van pulls out of the submission, and he shoots for a takedown that fails. Johnson prods out jabs, and Van busts him in the chops with a right and a left. Van makes Johnson shell up with a right hand and two body shots, and the power difference is fast. Van puts a lot more behind his strikes, and he gets the reactions he seeks when landing until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 2
Van comes out of his corner ready to pick up where he left off, marching “InnerG” down and landing a few strikes on the way in. Johnson is also similarly active, picking and poking with distance strikes. Van smashes him in the face with an uppercut, and Johnson does not like this and circles away. Van gives chase, chaining three punches together as Johnson escapes. The Terminator-like Van plods forward, aiming strikes to the body when not going up top. Johnson reaches out with a swiping left hook, and it does not make Van back up one inch. Van comes out throwing with two hooks, and Johnson barely gets out of the way. Johnson jabs twice and powers out a left hand, and Van no-sells him and gives him back a sharp jab that makes Johnson turn his head dismissively. Van pops him with a left and comes at him with a head kick, and Johnson bounces off the cage and lets loose with a right hand. Johnson whiffs on two hooks, and Van stays tightly compact and dings Johnson with a left hook on the nose. Van buckles the leg with a kick, ignoring Johnson’s jabs and straight punches. Johnson scores a left, and Van does too. Van jabs his way into a short combination, and Johnson punches back as he strafes to the side. Van nails him with a right hand, and Johnson shakes it off and throws back. Van loops a few right hands around the guard, and Johnson strikes back and gets in an elbow down the middle. Van keeps pursuing his foe, and the two flyweights are trading without fear. Johnson steps through with a knee, and Van responds with a right hand over the top and barely blocks a spinning back elbow in time. Van misses with a right as Johnson jumps forward, and his head kick is blocked. Two Johnson jabs end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
There is a brief glove touch to begin the last round, and Johnson lands the first strike with a right hand. As they both swing for the fences, Johnson nails his opponent with a right hand. Johnson blasts the body with a kick and ducks to avoid a screaming left hook, and he fakes a leg kick to spin with an elbow that bounces off Van’s forehead. Van tries to make him pay with an overhand right, but Johnson’s own fast right finds its mark and gets Van’s attention. Johnson jabs the body and comes up top with two punches, and his crisp right staggers “The Fearless.”
Johnson walks Van down and clobbers him with a thunderous uppercut, sending Van careening to the mat. As Johnson leaps down to smash Van with a big right hand, Coca dives between them, and Van’s head bounces off the mat to bring him back around.
While Van sits up to potentially protests the stoppage, he realizes he got his bell rung and that there is nothing more he can do. Johnson celebrates his wild comeback victory after a thrilling battle, and he sets the crowd up to drown out the arena with “USA” chants.
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Joshua Van R3 0:20 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Charles Johnson as an underdog, citing his experience against higher-level competition and short-notice adaptability. He acknowledges Joshua Van's power and prospect status but believes Johnson's veteran savvy and awkward style could frustrate Van. Angelo has a small bet ($25, quarter unit) on Johnson at +170 and mentions a potential plus 3.5 round bet as a safer alternative.
Cody picks Van, citing his youth, volume, and cardio. He notes Van's slow starts but believes his pace will overwhelm Johnson, who tends to fade. He expects Van to win by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to win a close decision. He notes that Johnson is a veteran who has been in tough battles and has prepared well for the altitude. He acknowledges Van's talent but thinks Van may face a roadblock. He likes the plus 180 underdog value and expects a split decision type fight.
Joshua Van's style is more reliable with consistent output. Despite a height and reach disadvantage, Van will crash the pocket and land body shots, setting up his striking game. The minus 200 line is a bit wide, but Van should win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Van, citing his volume and cardio. He notes Johnson's tendency to lose rounds early and then fade, while Van gets stronger as the fight goes on. He expects Van to outwork Johnson and win a decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 1 | 70 of 168 | 41% | 88 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 48 of 128 | 37% | 50 of 130 | 0 of 11 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 17 of 47 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 1 | 32 of 74 | 43% | 37 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 29 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jake Hadley | 0 | 11 of 43 | 25% | 11 of 43 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Johnson | 70 of 168 | 41% | 36 of 125 | 12 of 18 | 22 of 25 | 66 of 159 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 7 |
| Jake Hadley | 48 of 128 | 37% | 15 of 86 | 15 of 22 | 18 of 20 | 46 of 124 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Johnson | 19 of 40 | 47% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 11 | 19 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 17 of 47 | 36% | 3 of 27 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Johnson | 32 of 74 | 43% | 19 of 58 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Jake Hadley | 20 of 38 | 52% | 6 of 22 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Johnson | 19 of 54 | 35% | 12 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 19 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jake Hadley | 11 of 43 | 25% | 6 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hadley (-170), Johnson (+142)
Round 1
The next matchup comes at the men’s flyweight bracket, with a fighter in St. Louis’ own Johnson (14-6, 3-4 UFC), who is looking to push his UFC record to .500. If he does so, his opponent Hadley (10-2, 2-2 UFC) will slide beneath the midpoint mark, so something might have to give here. Referee Gary Copeland will take charge of the cage in this pairing, one that begins with a glove touch. The two paw at one another with jabs and low kicks to get going, and Hadley walks Johnson down to crowd him and back him against the cage. Hadley feeds his foe a steady diet of jabs and leg kicks, and Johnson responds in kind. Johnson mixes things up with a kick to the chest, and Hadley replies with a left hook. Hadley measures his left hook again, and it bounces off the pectorals harmlessly. Hadley keeps pressuring forward, staying active and giving Johnson plenty of reads. Johnson escapes to the side and eats part of a right hook, and Hadley takes advantage of this to clip him with a left and shoot in for a double-leg takedown. “InnerG” hits the mat and bounces back up as if he had springs in his shorts. They chip away at one another with leg kicks, and Hadley tries again for a level change but is intercepted and met with effective dirty boxing from the Missouri native. Johnson doubles up on his jab, and he leans back as a left hand flies past him. One after the other, they throw body kicks, and Johnson hops away to avoid a big left. Johnson blocks a head kick and the two otherwise potshot each other with effective but not overly powerful blows. Johnson backs his man off briefly with a one-two, and Hadley aims his own similar combination to the midsection. Johnson kicks the chest and punches the midsection, and Hadley also targets the body with a few punches. Johnson gets off two low kicks, and the extremely close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hadley
Round 2
The flyweights touch ‘em up, and Johnson reintroduces himself with a head kick that Hadley barely blocks. Johnson follows it with a straight right hand that wobbles the Brit’s legs, and Hadley smiles at him and corks back his left hand to prepare a counter. Johnson does not get reckless and walk into anything dangerous, and instead picks at him as Hadley gets his sea legs back beneath him. Hadley tries to shoot for a takedown, only for Johnson to stop it before it materializes and push away. Johnson switches stances, puts three hands on his foe’s face, and slips away before “White Kong” hits back. Johnson aims another high kick that bounces off the guard, and Hadley steels himself and digs a left hand to the liver. Johnson does not bat an eye and eats a body kick and another left to the same spot. Johnson wipes his face and rifles out a right hand and a hard low kick. Johnson stifles a half-hearted takedown and shoves his man back. When Hadley misses with a one-two, Johnson is there to jab and then string a few punches together after it. Leg kicks from both men get through, and Johnson stabs the midsection with his toes. Hadley’s leg kick leads to him backing away and eating two punches, and Johnson digs a right to the body. Hadley keeps working on the long lead leg of his opponent, and he absorbs a right hook flush on the face. Johnson lands a right hand, slips a punch and drills him with a right. As Hadley blinks it out, Johnson unloads with a vicious right hand that sends the Brit collapsing to his seat. The cobwebs are almost immediately cleared, as Hadley shoots in for a takedown and puts Johnson on his seat for half a second. Johnson climbs back up, Hadley hangs on from behind, and the round ends with the two men giving it up to one another.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson
Round 3
The crowd is alive and fully in support of their local man, who has momentum after dropping his opponent in the last round. Chants of “USA” echo through the building, and the two high five before getting going. Hadley tries to take them out of it by pressuring forward, but Johnson’s footwork allows him to not only get away from heavy shots but also stop any takedowns from getting remotely close. Johnson tries to counter shots as Hadley crowds him, and a good right hand intercepts and bloodies Hadley’s nose as Hadley goes for a low single-leg takedown. If Johnson was officially grounded, it was only for a second before “InnerG” is back on his feet. In the position with Hadley hanging on, Johnson elbows the calf over a dozen times before Hadley sets his leg down. The two separate, and the audience is elated. Johnson strafes from side to side offering jabs, and Hadley’s offense has waned to single left hands. Johnson pushes his hand out and a finger jams in the Brit’s eye, and Hadley waves Copeland off and says he wants to get right back to it. Johnson strings a few punches together on the restart, and Hadley ducks down but fails to take the fight down. Johnson keeps volume relatively high and his combinations steady, generally tossing at least two strikes in an exchange at a time. Johnson parries the oncoming hands and jabs the body with his foot, peppering “White Kong” from his preferred range. Johnson gives chase and scores a solid left hook on the nose, and Hadley sits down and delivers two left hands of his own. Johnson lets his hands go, resulting in a Hadley low single. Johnson sprawls and tosses it aside, where he ends the fight chasing after Hadley with punches and kicks. The two flyweights hug it out after 15 minutes of combat, and it could be a tough one to score depending on this last round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Johnson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Johnson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Johnson)
The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Jake Hadley via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans towards Jake Hadley because he cannot trust Charles Johnson's one phenomenal showing over several mediocre ones. He notes Hadley has good takedowns and BJJ, though his takedown accuracy is low due to bailing on attempts. He acknowledges that if the version of Johnson that beat Azat Maksum shows up, he wins, but that version has only appeared once.
Big Brady picks Charles Johnson, citing the hometown advantage in St. Louis and the possibility that Johnson can do enough on the feet while mixing in takedowns. He notes that Johnson has been taken down in every UFC fight but that Hadley has zero takedowns in the UFC, so the fight likely stays standing. He is not confident because Johnson can be low volume and hesitant, but if the version that fought Maxim shows up, he can win. He expects a decision and thinks the hometown rub could help Johnson in a close fight.
Cody picks Johnson as a confident underdog. He argues that Hadley is overhyped, with poor cardio, weak striking, and a questionable chin. Johnson has excellent get-up game, having been taken down many times but always getting back up. He also has superior boxing and volume. Cody believes Johnson can stuff takedowns or get up quickly, and outwork Hadley on the feet. He notes that Hadley has looked bad against wrestlers and grapplers, and Johnson is a tough veteran.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson, noting that the fighters who beat Johnson are relentless wrestlers, which Hadley is not. He believes Johnson's cardio and volume will be key, and that Hadley's weight cut (walking around 160 lbs) will be a factor. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Johnson.
Paul picks Johnson, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Johnson showed improved takedown defense in his last fight and has never been submitted. Hadley's cardio and striking are suspect, and Johnson's volume should win rounds. Paul thinks Johnson's get-up game and durability will be key. He is confident in the underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson as an underdog over Jake Hadley. He criticizes Hadley's performance against Cody Durden, particularly his inability to secure takedowns and his stationary style. He praises Johnson's elusiveness, outside movement, Olympic-level cardio, and world-class takedown defense. He believes Johnson's style will frustrate Hadley and that Hadley's best wins come against fighters who stand in front of him.
Expert Picks (15)
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting him to outwrestle Johnson. He thinks Almabayev is craftier and has better wrestling than Johnson's previous opponents. He notes Johnson tends to struggle against fellow veterans and that the fight likely goes the distance.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, citing his consistent wrestling and cardio. He thinks Johnson is unreliable and that Almabayev's takedown threat will win rounds. AJ notes Johnson's getup game but believes Almabayev's accuracy and mixing of strikes will secure a decision.
AJ picks Almabayev by decision, expecting his elite wrestling and positional control to neutralize Johnson's striking. Johnson is inconsistent and has been outwrestled before. Almabayev should land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground.
Angelo considers Charles Johnson plus 3.5 at even money, thinking Johnson can win a round and that the fight likely goes to decision. He notes that plus 3.5 covers a win, split decision loss, or clean 29-28 loss, making it a good bet at even money.
Angelo picks Almabayev, noting that Johnson stays on the outside and lacks forward pressure, which Almabayev needs to be effective. He thinks Almabayev can do what he wants without pressure. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Angelo picks Asu because Charles Johnson tends to take rounds off and fights on the outside, which won't score well with judges overseas. He notes that Asu looked bad in his last fight but that was due to Alex Perez's pressure, which Charles doesn't replicate. He is rooting for Charles but thinks Asu will get the win.
Big Brady picks Asu Almabayev to win by decision. He notes Charles Johnson's grappling vulnerability, having been taken down 11 times by Cody Durden and controlled by Raphael Assuncao. Almabayev is a much better grappler with three-round cardio. Brady expects Almabayev to take Johnson down and control him for a decision win, though he acknowledges Johnson can knock out anyone on his best day.
Cody picks Johnson, agreeing with Paul. He highlights Johnson's reach and height advantages, better striking, and improved takedown defense. He sees Almabayev as low-volume and one-dimensional, and believes Johnson's plus-money price is a value spot.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Asu Almabayev, criticizing Charles Johnson's ego and recent performances. He believes Johnson's wins over Josh Van and Looney Kavanaugh were flukes and that he is on a decline, citing his knockout loss to Alex Perez. Levi praises Almabayev's relentless pressure and heart, expecting him to push a pace and win two rounds, with Johnson likely complaining afterward.
Jacob picks Almabayev, citing his grappling pressure and Johnson's tendency to engage in whatever fight style is presented. He thinks Johnson will spend too time grappling with Almabayev and eventually lose a decision. He expects Almabayev to get multiple takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev because he believes Almabayev is an elite wrestler who can take Charles Johnson down consistently, exploiting Johnson's weakness against wrestlers. He notes that Johnson has struggled against grapplers like Cody Durden and Muhammad Mokaev, and that Almabayev has a short flight to Azerbaijan while Johnson travels from America. He predicts a competitive fight but expects Almabayev to win via decision, possibly hurting Johnson on the feet as well.
The host expects this fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He believes Almabaev's ability to mix in grappling at key moments and land big shots on the feet will keep Johnson on the back foot, leading to a decision win for Almabaev.
Almabayev's ability to mix takedowns with striking should get him the win, but Johnson's defensive grappling and ability to get back to his feet will keep it close. The line is too wide; passing on the fight unless Almabayev drops to -150.
Paul picks Johnson as a plus-money underdog, citing his improved takedown defense, striking advantage, and size. He notes Almabayev's one-dimensional wrestling and low volume, and believes Johnson's damage output will win rounds. He sees value at plus money.
The Guru picks Almabayev via decision, but admits he doesn't have a strong read. He thinks Almabayev's wrestling and conditioning will be key, but acknowledges Johnson's knockout power. He is not confident and spends little time on the breakdown.
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