Max Holloway

Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.

Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.

Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.

Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.

Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.

Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.

Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.

Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.

Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.

Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.

Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.

The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.

Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.

Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.

Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.

Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.

Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.

Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.

Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.

Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.

Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.

Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.

Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.

Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.

Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.

Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.

Angelo is confident Holloway will win, citing his striking volume, pressure, takedown defense, and championship experience. He notes that Holloway is an 8-to-1 favorite but he won't bet that price. He expects Holloway to dominate the striking exchanges and defend takedowns, potentially setting up another title shot.

Big Brady sees no clear path to victory for the Korean Zombie, as Holloway has superior volume, takedown defense, and durability. He notes that Zombie has looked bad in recent fights, taking significant damage against Volkanovski and Ortega. He expects Holloway to overwhelm Zombie with strikes, leading to a late-round knockout or corner stoppage.

Cody sees Holloway as a clear winner due to his legendary durability and volume striking. He notes that Holloway's speed and output will overwhelm the Korean Zombie, who is on a retirement fight and has shown decline. Cody expects Holloway to win by decision but also considers late-round finishes possible. He mentions using Holloway as a parlay anchor but warns that the minus 800 price is steep.

Daniel picks Max Holloway, citing his insane volume and output over five rounds. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is clear through sheer strike volume, while the Korean Zombie's only chance is a counter-striking power approach. He mentions that Zombie is 36 and coming off a brutal beating from Volkanovski, and that Holloway is the younger, more durable fighter. He expects a decision win for Holloway.

James is confident Max Holloway wins, believing he can finish the Korean Zombie whenever he wants. He notes Zombie hasn't looked good recently and that Holloway's volume and leg kicks will be too much. He considers Holloway by KO at -145 but passes due to the possibility of a decision or friendly fight. He thinks Holloway could finish early or late.

The host emphasizes Holloway's durability, cardio, and volume striking, and believes he will pressure the Korean Zombie and win a decision. He notes that Holloway is only 31 and has a lot to prove. The host mentions the over/under was steamed to over 2.5 and expects the fight to go the distance. He likes the Holloway by decision prop at +165.

Paul agrees Holloway wins but notes he's slowing down and more vulnerable than in the past. He points out that Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and may not be the same fighter, but the Korean Zombie is at the end of his career and lacks the tools to exploit that. Paul expects Holloway to win by decision or late finish, but warns that the price is too high for a straight bet.

Angelo picks Max Holloway, citing his incredible volume, experience, and size advantage. He notes Holloway is only 31 and has only lost to Volkanovski and Poirier. He acknowledges Holloway has absorbed a lot of damage and his chin may give out eventually, but until then he's riding with him. He has no bet on the main event, preferring to watch without wagering.

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by knockout in the fourth or fifth round. He highlights Holloway's unmatched volume and durability, noting that his only recent losses are to Alexander Volkanovski. He believes Arnold Allen's only path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Holloway's chin. He expects Holloway to break Allen late.

Cody acknowledges Holloway's mileage and potential regression, but trusts his proven five-round cardio, durability, and volume. He notes Arnold Allen's low output historically and questions whether Allen can maintain high output for five rounds. He sees Holloway as still the superior fighter, though he admits Allen is improving and could win in a few years.

Connor picks Holloway but expresses hesitation, noting that Allen's southpaw style and counter-punching could pose problems similar to Poirier's approach. He acknowledges Holloway's wear and tear from a long career and many wars, but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven track record against top competition. Connor feels Allen has not yet shown he can maintain the necessary pace and composure for five rounds against Holloway.

Holloway's output and durability will overwhelm Allen, who has benefited from favorable matchmaking and low activity. Holloway's only recent losses are to Volkanovski, and he still performed well against Kattar and Rodriguez. Allen's low output style will be exposed by Holloway's volume and pressure. Expect Holloway to finish late, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

Paul echoes Cody's reasoning, emphasizing Holloway's incredible volume and durability. He notes that Holloway landed 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, questioning if Arnold Allen can keep that pace. He acknowledges Holloway may be slowing down but still finds it hard to ignore his output.

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by decision, citing Holloway's volume striking, boxing, chin, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Arnold Allen's power and recent improvements but believes Holloway's experience in championship fights and ability to take three of five rounds will prevail. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and sees value on Allen at +155, but ultimately sides with Holloway.

Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.

Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.

Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.

Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.

Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.

Angelo picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, having placed a one-unit bet at +110. He notes that Holloway's technical striking should cut through Rodriguez's theatrical style. Angelo thinks Holloway will close the distance and avoid the spin attacks, and that Rodriguez's two-year layoff is a factor.

Big Brady is confident in Max Holloway, highlighting his insane volume (7.26 significant strikes per minute) and legendary durability (never knocked down). He notes Rodriguez likely needs a KO to win, but Holloway's chin and cardio are elite. Brady expects Holloway to increase volume each round and predicts a fifth-round TKO as damage accumulates.

Cody believes Holloway is a god-tier operator who dominates non-elite opponents. He references Holloway's record 445 significant strikes against Kattar and argues that his losses are only to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier). He expects Holloway to win inside the distance, likely by TKO in the later rounds, and thinks the over 3.5 rounds is a solid play.

Daniel Levi picks Max Holloway, citing his record-breaking output against Calvin Kattar (447 significant strikes landed) and his status as the clear #2 featherweight. He acknowledges Yair Rodríguez's dynamic striking and finishing ability but believes Holloway's volume and pressure will overwhelm Rodríguez as he fatigues. Levi notes that Rodríguez is a live underdog but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven championship level.

Jacob picks Max Holloway to win inside the distance, placing a four-unit bet at +110. He believes there are levels to this and that Holloway will wear on Rodriguez with volume and finish him. Jacob thinks Holloway wants to make a statement as a big favorite.

Paul thinks Max Holloway's volume and durability are unmatched. He notes Holloway's record-breaking strike output and believes Rodríguez can't keep the pace. He's priced out at -720 but still picks Holloway to win, possibly by late stoppage or decision.

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by decision. He notes that Holloway has only lost to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier, McGregor) and that Kattar is a big step up in competition. He highlights Kattar's poor striking defense, absorbing more than he lands (5.66 vs 5.01), which is a red flag against Holloway's volume. He also mentions Holloway's motivation after two losses and that he looked great in his last fight. He believes Kattar's only path is a knockout, but Holloway hasn't been knocked out in 27 fights.

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar for the upset, citing Kattar's power and ability to land hard shots that could sway judges. He notes Holloway's ego and emotional issues may have cost him the Volk rematch, and that Holloway absorbs many head strikes. He believes Kattar doesn't need to match volume but land the cleaner, harder shots over five rounds.

Kattar is the more technical striker with crisp hands and a piston-like jab. He matches Holloway in height and reach, which neutralizes Holloway's typical range advantage. Holloway has been hurt in past fights and Kattar has the power to finish. Kattar's cardio held up in a five-round fight against Dan Ige, and his New England Cartel camp is on a hot streak. The main concern is Holloway's volume, but Kattar's cleaner striking should win rounds.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski by decision, citing concerns about Holloway's camp (zoom training, lockdown in Hawaii). He thinks Volkanovski is ready and hungry, and can outland Holloway again. He placed a bet on this fight but doesn't reveal it.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkanovski, stating he is simply the better fighter. He praises Volkanovski's fainting game, cardio, strength, and ability to mix takedowns. He believes Holloway's best days are behind him, citing damage from the Poirier fight, concussion issues, and a lack of motivation. He predicts Volkanovski will be the first to knock out Holloway.

Volkanovski is a very smart and efficient fighter who implements game plans well. His leg kicks were the key in the first fight, and Holloway has no answer for them. Volkanovski can use the same strategy again and win. He is durable and confident in the pocket. Picks Volkanovski by decision.