UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020 · Catchweight (129 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Raulian Paiva
4.14 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.01 SApM
48.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Zhalgas Zhumagulov
5.24 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
5.86 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
19.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Raulian Paiva - Fight History
LOSS vs Sergey Morozov
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergey Morozov 0 63 of 142 44% 63 of 142 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:13
Raulian Paiva 0 68 of 127 53% 82 of 143 2 of 13 15% 0 0 4:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergey Morozov 0 39 of 76 51% 39 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Raulian Paiva 0 31 of 57 54% 32 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
2 Sergey Morozov 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:51
3 Sergey Morozov 0 16 of 50 32% 16 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Raulian Paiva 0 30 of 56 53% 33 of 59 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergey Morozov 63 of 142 44% 51 of 120 10 of 20 2 of 2 62 of 140 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 68 of 127 53% 56 of 113 8 of 9 4 of 5 66 of 122 1 of 3 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergey Morozov 39 of 76 51% 31 of 63 6 of 11 2 of 2 39 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 31 of 57 54% 26 of 52 4 of 4 1 of 1 31 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sergey Morozov 8 of 16 50% 7 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 1
Raulian Paiva 7 of 14 50% 5 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Sergey Morozov 16 of 50 32% 13 of 43 3 of 7 0 of 0 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 30 of 56 53% 25 of 50 4 of 4 1 of 2 30 of 54 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergey Morozov

Angelo picks Sergey Morozov to win an ugly, fun fight. He highlights Morozov's counter-striking and grappling, noting that Paiva tends to run forward looking for a brawl, which plays into Morozov's counter-striking. He compares Morozov's potential success to Sean O'Malley's, who lit Paiva up with counters. He expects Morozov's grappling to also be a factor.

"i like marazzo off here to win an ugly and very fun fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sergey Morozov

Big Brady picks Sergey Morozov to win by decision, but with low confidence. He likes Morozov's path to victory via takedowns and control, noting Paiva's poor takedown defense (taken down by multiple opponents). However, he questions Morozov's chin (dropped three times in last fight, KO losses outside UFC) and submission defense. He thinks the fight could get sketchy and says he is staying away from betting it. He expects Morozov to grind out a decision.

"i'm going to take morozov to kind of grind this one out... but uh this one could get sketchy for sure"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergey Morozov

Cody likes Morozov's power and boxing, and thinks Paiva's poor head movement and durability issues will lead to a knockout. He also mentions Morozov by KO as a prop.

Morozov by KO
"i gotta go with the guy with the better skill set here so sergey morozov and i'm kind of tempted to maybe maybe take a shot on morse off by knockout yeah"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergey Morozov

Paul agrees, noting Paiva's weight cut issues and the damage he's taken. He thinks Morozov will get back on track.

"i think morozov gets on back on track in this spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sergey Morozov

The host picks Sergey Morozov, calling it the toughest fight to predict. He notes Morozov's grappling advantage and believes he will use takedowns to control the fight. He expects a finish in the second round, citing Morozov's experience against good opponents like Umar Nurmagomedov. He is not confident in Paiva's improvements.

second round finish prediction
"i am going to go with sergey morrisov here"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
TKO (punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 1 39 of 62 62% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 1 39 of 62 62% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 11 of 47 23% 2 of 32 3 of 6 6 of 9 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 39 of 62 62% 28 of 50 8 of 9 3 of 3 37 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 11 of 47 23% 2 of 32 3 of 6 6 of 9 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 39 of 62 62% 28 of 50 8 of 9 3 of 3 37 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Raulian Paiva

Round 1
Kicking off the main card of UFC 269 is an unranked bantamweight pairing between ex-flyweight Paiva (21-3, 3-2 UFC) and the fluorescently haired O’Malley (14-1, 6-1 UFC). The Octagon ranger for this one is referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch as they would rather introduce themselves to one another with their fists. O’Malley comes out switching his stances back and forth, and Paiva swings and misses at his elusive foe. Paiva kicks low, and he catches a front kick to the body so he can close in and get his hands on the American. O’Malley darts out of the way, and he fakes with a jab only to have his leg kicked. O’Malley stomp-kicks his foe’s knee, and he sticks out a single jab that split the guard. The ball of O’Malley’s foot clatters square into Paiva’s groin, and we draw a pause for a few seconds. Paiva is set to resume before long, and O’Malley backs away and starts lining jabs up. Paiva scores a quick calf kick that makes O’Malley changes stances, and he completes a short combination with an overhand right. O’Malley gathers himself and flicks his jabs out a few more times, keeping his range from a safe distance while Paiva gives chase. A sniper shot of a left hand snaps Paiva’s head back, but it is one-and-done as Paiva keeps walking him down. The Brazilian swipes out with a left hand, and as chants rain down for O’Malley, Paiva chips at his calf. O’Malley gets off a push kick to the midsection, only for Paiva to hack at his lead leg a few more times. “Sugar” strings together a clean combination that surprises Paiva and may have marked his nose up. Paiva recommits to the low calf kick, and he reaches out with the end of a right hook to glance off O’Malley’s jaw. They land strikes at the same time and appear no worse for wear, and O’Malley follows it up with a blistering right hand. Paiva leans back into the wall, and O’Malley tees off on him against the wire as Paiva is barely able to stay on his feet. Paiva never gets a chance to recover, as O’Malley rips the body and then smashes Paiva in the face with sharp, accurate strikes until Paiva falls over. The Brazilian springs back up, but he is still on rubber legs, and O’Malley continues to work him over. A left to the body and a right to the head spell the beginning of the end for Paiva, as O’Malley swarms him with a vigorous crescendo of punches until Paiva's knees give out and Herzog steps in. This is an impressive performance for a kid who has star power for days. In his post-fight interview, O'Malley admits that he was very close to withdrawing from the fight due to a serious rib injury, but he made it to fight night and put on a show.

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Raulian Paiva R1 4:42 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean O'Malley

Big Brady is confident in Sean O'Malley winning by knockout. He highlights O'Malley's massive striking advantage, with high volume and accuracy, while Paiva has poor striking defense and gets hit more than he lands. Paiva rarely shoots takedowns and has low takedown accuracy, so O'Malley should be able to keep the fight standing. Brady is unimpressed with Paiva's competition and believes O'Malley will finish him.

O'Malley by knockout
"give me o'malley to win give me o'malley to win by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sean O'Malley

Daniel Levi picks Sean O'Malley to win but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He praises O'Malley's striking diversity and volume but questions his defensive and mental toughness when facing adversity. Levi notes Paiva's heart and durability, referencing his comeback win over Kyler Phillips. He worries about O'Malley's compromised leg (from the Chito fight) and Paiva's ability to capitalize if O'Malley gets hurt. Levi says he might take a half-unit shot on Paiva but ultimately picks O'Malley.

half unit shot on Raulian Paiva at +250
"give me o'malley but i i do agree with you that it's dogger pass and i might take a half unit shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean O'Malley

O'Malley has the striking advantage and power to finish, but Paiva is durable and has a path via takedowns. However, Paiva's striking defense is suspect, and O'Malley will counter effectively. The under 2.5 rounds is a good bet, as O'Malley likely gets a first-round KO.

under 2.5 rounds
"i'm going o'malley i'm taking him to win this fight by decision um i'm i'm gonna lay off of parliament too heavily here but i do think he has a side and i do think he gets a knockout so …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sean O'Malley

The MMA Guru picks Sean O'Malley to win by second-round TKO via a spinning back kick to the body. He believes O'Malley's reach, height, and striking advantage will be too much for Paiva. He notes O'Malley's underrated ground game and training with Kyla Phillips, who recently fought Paiva. He predicts O'Malley will hurt Paiva early and finish him with body shots.

second-round TKO via spinning back kick to the body
"i reckon he gets this one done by second round tko with a body themed ko i reckon it's going to be a spinning back kick to the body"
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 1 74 of 132 56% 95 of 155 4 of 9 44% 0 1 3:02
Kyler Phillips 0 51 of 117 43% 72 of 147 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 1 45 of 70 64% 61 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:01
Kyler Phillips 0 13 of 32 40% 19 of 38 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:23
2 Raulian Paiva 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 32 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Kyler Phillips 0 23 of 47 48% 23 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:25
3 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 34 47% 19 of 37 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:24
Kyler Phillips 0 15 of 38 39% 30 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 74 of 132 56% 62 of 115 7 of 11 5 of 6 43 of 95 8 of 9 23 of 28
Kyler Phillips 51 of 117 43% 37 of 96 14 of 21 0 of 0 41 of 102 7 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 45 of 70 64% 41 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 3 19 of 39 3 of 3 23 of 28
Kyler Phillips 13 of 32 40% 9 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 5
2 Raulian Paiva 13 of 28 46% 9 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 23 of 47 48% 17 of 38 6 of 9 0 of 0 17 of 38 6 of 9 0 of 0
3 Raulian Paiva 16 of 34 47% 12 of 28 2 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kyler Phillips 15 of 38 39% 11 of 30 4 of 8 0 of 0 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Raulian Paiva vs. Kyler Phillips

Round 1
Two top-flight teams will wage a proxy battle as the MMA Lab’s Phillips (9-1, 3-0 UFC) faces ex-flyweight and Team Alpha Male rep Paiva (20-3, 2-2 UFC) at bantamweight. The co-main event will tolerate zero nonsense as it draws oversight from referee Keith Peterson, and the gloves are touched to clock in this fight. Paiva is quick on the draw, with a few crisp punches when Phillips tries to close the distance. Phillips opens up with kicks, and he cracks the Brazilian with a right hand. Phillips opens up with a flying knee, and when he lands, he spins with a back fist that glances off the target. Paiva appears to have recovered from the big blow and partial knockdown to throw at Phillips, but “The Matrix” enters the matrix as he dodges several strikes and ducks down to clash heads with his advancing opponent. Phillips kicks the body, and his leg is caught and he takes two right hands and succumbs to a takedown from the position. When Phillips walks up the fence, he is able to spin around and spin Paiva around with a kimura. Phillips lifts his foe up in the air and slams him down like he was carrying groceries, and he lets Paiva up so that he can land a flashy kick to the body. Paiva appears unflustered and he walks Phillips down, but he eats a fierce right hand that hurts him. Another wobbles Paiva, who shoots in for a single and is stuffed. Phillips makes him pay with several punches, until the Brazilian bails on it and stands up. Phillips kicks him in the head, and spins around with a heel kick that clacks on the side of Paiva’s head. Paiva allows him to land the strike so that Phillips falls to the ground without any balance, and he climbs into Phillips’ guard to slow things down. Paiva postures up and lands a few long punches, but Phillips is quick to reverse him and put Paiva on his back. Phillips takes side control, and slices over to mount but is pulled back to half guard in an exchange. Paiva eats an elbow, scrambles back to his knees, takes another elbow, and stands back up. When Paiva stands back up, Phillips rocks him with another brutal right hand, and the Brazilian pushes for a desperation takedown. Paiva can barely stand, and Phillips cracks him with another right hand. A nasty elbow cracks the Brazilian on the jaw, and he collapses in a heap. The fight not quite over, Phillips dives in to finish the job. He continues to club Paiva with everything he has, and Paiva miraculously survives to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-8 Phillips
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Phillips

Round 2
The gloves are touched to begin the round, and Paiva comes out of his corner swinging for the bleachers. Phillips spins with a wheel kick to try to throw things off, and Paiva drops down to pursue a takedown. As soon as Phillips drops to a knee, he rolls for a leglock, and Paiva abandons the position before anything gets set up. Both men get back to their feet, and Phillips is ready with pep in his step and a blistering elbow square on the chin. Paiva takes it flush and fires back with a straight right hand, knocking Phillips off of his feet. Paiva sees that Phillips may be hurt and a little gassed, and he chases Phillips around the cage and unloads a fury at him. Paiva scores a clean uppercut that stings Phillips badly, and even though he may be bloodied and has taken some damage, he appears the fresher man and ignores a flying knee when Phillips tries to recover. Paiva pursues a takedown, and when Phillips fights it off, the latter takes a very deep breath before the midpoint of the round. Phillips dives forward for a tackle takedown, landing it and putting the Brazilian on his back. Paiva scoots his way to the fence, and he calmly stands back up while Phillips tries to keep him down. Paiva is able to break free, and he lands a one-two as Phillips is tiring fast. Paiva ducks a punch and grabs a body lock to try to plant “The Matrix” on the ground, but Phillips stops it and lands a spinning back elbow. When Paiva looks to do some damage with a right hand, Phillips evades it, grabs the back and drags Paiva down to the ground. Phillips takes back control and fishes for a choke, but Paiva rolls through to his knees. Phillips flattens Paiva out to set up a choke, and Paiva turns and nearly gives up mount. Phillips turns to try to get a better position, and he is forced to stand up. Phillips smashes Paiva in the face with a huge right hand, and Paiva eats it like an acai bowl and blasts Phillips back with one of his own. The spent fighters end the round pressed against the wall.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva

Round 3
The bantamweight battle well worth the price of admission, both men touch gloves to begin the last round. Whose cardio is better is anyone’s guess. Paiva starts the dance with a few jabs, and Phillips comes back at him with a long right hand and a possible takedown entry. Paiva stuffs it without much effort and connects with a right hand that wobbles Phillips. Paiva opens up with a right and a left as Phillips bears down on him to take him down, stopping the attempt before it gets too far. Phillips shrugs off a right hand on the jaw to duck down low for a single, and both men fall to the ground with neither in an advantageous position. Phillips ducks face-first into an uppercut, and Paiva lays into him with a few punches but cannot hurt him. Phillips sells out with a huge right hand, and the two fighters are so wiped out, they are slipping all over the cage and wobbling after every punch. Phillips escapes a few strikes but takes some more when Paiva gives chase, and Phillips attacks with a spinning kick that is well short of the mark. Phillips goes all-in for a double leg takedown, scooping the Brazilian’s legs out beneath him bot not able to ground him for long. Paiva scores a right hand only to get pursued with another takedown, and Paiva grits it out and turns him around to take him down. Phillips defends with his legs to set up a reversal, but he does not have the energy to land it and instead is stuck on his back while Paiva is on top of him. The Brazilian holds on tight, not wanting “The Matrix” to get off any more wild strikes on his feet, and he gets off some ground-and-pound to stay busy. Paiva in half guard continues to control his opponent and land effective if not damaging punches. At the 10-second clapper, Phillips explodes to his feet and is ready to brawl. Phillips smashes his fist into the granite chin of Paiva, and Paiva throws everything he has back at his foe. One final flurry ends the fight, and this one could be close – close enough to be dead even, depending on how the judges see the rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Paiva (28-28)

The Official Result
Raulian Paiva def. Kyler Phillips via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Angelo picks Raulian Paiva because he thinks Paiva is a real threat on the ground with jiu-jitsu and is a good striker. He notes that Kyler Phillips has wrestling and fight IQ, but Paiva could cause problems. He is not confident and is not betting on this fight. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a decision.

more/more on monkey knife fight
"paiva is my pick don't i'm not betting on that this is just a pick to have a pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

Big Brady is very high on Kyler Phillips, especially after his impressive win over Song Yadong. He notes Paiva is moving up from 125 lbs and has poor striking defense (51%) and a negative striking differential. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns (3 per 15 min, 63% accuracy) and win a convincing decision, as Paiva has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. He considers this a step down in competition for Phillips.

"i like phillips quite a bit and i'm gonna take him to win by a very convincing decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

Cody picks Phillips, calling him a legitimate top ten guy. He praises Phillips' fight IQ, striking, and wrestling, noting his performance against Song Yadong. He thinks Paiva's move up to 135 removes his size advantage and that Phillips is on a different level. He considers Phillips a safe parlay piece.

"i think phillips is the real deal like a legitimate top ten guy in this division"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

Daniel Levi picks Kyler Phillips to win, acknowledging Paiva's toughness but believing Phillips is too clean and will edge a decision. He notes that Paiva is dangerous with nothing to lose, but Phillips' footwork and technique are superior. Levi expects a close fight but sees Phillips' skill set prevailing, though he wouldn't play the -300 line against Paiva.

"i kind of see kyler being a little bit too clean kind of edging the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

Jacob picks Kyler Phillips as his lock of the week, calling him the 'king of lock of the weeks.' He praises Phillips' fight IQ and wrestling, noting that he gets takedowns when needed. He believes Phillips will dominate with wrestling and timely takedowns. He is very confident despite the short-notice opponent moving up in weight.

"he's the lock of the week this week i don't care if he's a two to one two and a half to one there whatever he's the lock of the week kyla phillips"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

The host leans toward Raulian Paiva as a dog, noting his striking and Muay Thai. He believes Paiva's move to 135 pounds will benefit his cardio and durability. He thinks the line is too wide and Paiva can make it a close fight. He likes Paiva by decision at +455 and the moneyline at +240.

Paiva by decision +455; Paiva moneyline +240
"i like paiva in this spot as well plus 240 ish is a great line i'm gonna be taking a shot on the money line there myself"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Paiva's biggest advantage was his size at 125, which is gone at 135. He notes Paiva hasn't looked ultra impressive and arguably lost to Zalgus. He sees Phillips as a surgeon and expects him to win on the feet or ground.

"i definitely think tyler phillips wins this fight whether it's stand up or on the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kyler Phillips

The Guru confidently picks Phillips, citing his size advantage at bantamweight, chain takedown ability, and mixing strikes with takedowns. He notes Paiva is a short-notice replacement and likely views this as a free payday. He predicts a first-round rear-naked choke submission, as Paiva has been outgrappled before.

first round submission via rear-naked choke
"kyla phillips first round submission i really like kyla phillips"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 52 of 121 42% 56 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 66 of 119 55% 73 of 126 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
2 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 27 of 44 61% 32 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
3 Raulian Paiva 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 20 of 34 58% 22 of 36 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 52 of 121 42% 14 of 71 22 of 31 16 of 19 51 of 119 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 66 of 119 55% 19 of 61 17 of 25 30 of 33 64 of 115 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 21 of 47 44% 6 of 30 8 of 9 7 of 8 21 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 19 of 41 46% 5 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 16 of 40 40% 5 of 23 7 of 11 4 of 6 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 27 of 44 61% 7 of 20 9 of 13 11 of 11 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Raulian Paiva 15 of 34 44% 3 of 18 7 of 11 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 20 of 34 58% 7 of 16 2 of 6 11 of 12 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert pick date unknown

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

KO (punches) R2 4:42 · UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 · Feb 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 45 of 124 36% 45 of 124 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 1 54 of 126 42% 67 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 22 of 57 38% 22 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 0 19 of 62 30% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
2 Raulian Paiva 0 23 of 67 34% 23 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Mark De La Rosa 1 35 of 64 54% 36 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 45 of 124 36% 21 of 91 15 of 24 9 of 9 44 of 122 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 54 of 126 42% 33 of 98 10 of 13 11 of 15 45 of 116 8 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 22 of 57 38% 12 of 42 8 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 19 of 62 30% 14 of 52 2 of 5 3 of 5 17 of 59 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 23 of 67 34% 9 of 49 7 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mark De La Rosa 35 of 64 54% 19 of 46 8 of 8 8 of 10 28 of 57 6 of 6 1 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi picks Raulian Paiva to win, likely by finish. He notes Paiva's height, reach, durability, and scrambling ability, while De La Rosa is smaller and makes mistakes in boxing. He believes Paiva is more ferocious and will overwhelm De La Rosa with left hooks and knees.

finish, possibly via left hook or knee
"I think Paiva comes in here and roles I think pyv was better than de la Rosa everywhere"
TKO (doctor stoppage) R1 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Aug 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rogério Bontorin 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 16 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Raulian Paiva 0 3 of 15 20% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rogério Bontorin 0 8 of 15 53% 8 of 16 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Raulian Paiva 0 3 of 15 20% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rogério Bontorin 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rogério Bontorin 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 3 of 15 20% 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kai Kara-France
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Feb 10, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kai Kara-France 0 58 of 168 34% 60 of 170 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:21
Raulian Paiva 0 67 of 184 36% 71 of 188 0 of 4 0% 1 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kai Kara-France 0 12 of 39 30% 12 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Kai Kara-France 0 21 of 58 36% 23 of 60 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
Raulian Paiva 0 25 of 68 36% 29 of 72 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:23
3 Kai Kara-France 0 25 of 71 35% 25 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:18
Raulian Paiva 0 26 of 77 33% 26 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kai Kara-France 58 of 168 34% 33 of 134 17 of 24 8 of 10 55 of 164 1 of 2 2 of 2
Raulian Paiva 67 of 184 36% 36 of 140 21 of 33 10 of 11 61 of 170 1 of 4 5 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kai Kara-France 12 of 39 30% 6 of 30 5 of 7 1 of 2 12 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 16 of 39 41% 8 of 29 4 of 5 4 of 5 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kai Kara-France 21 of 58 36% 14 of 51 3 of 3 4 of 4 18 of 55 1 of 1 2 of 2
Raulian Paiva 25 of 68 36% 13 of 49 6 of 13 6 of 6 20 of 55 0 of 3 5 of 10
3 Kai Kara-France 25 of 71 35% 13 of 53 9 of 14 3 of 4 25 of 70 0 of 1 0 of 0
Raulian Paiva 26 of 77 33% 15 of 62 11 of 15 0 of 0 25 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov - Fight History
LOSS vs Joshua Van
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joshua Van 0 103 of 287 35% 104 of 291 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 120 of 234 51% 131 of 245 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joshua Van 0 26 of 77 33% 27 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 48 52% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Joshua Van 0 38 of 94 40% 38 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 51 of 100 51% 51 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Joshua Van 0 39 of 116 33% 39 of 116 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 44 of 86 51% 44 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joshua Van 103 of 287 35% 45 of 201 28 of 48 30 of 38 101 of 281 2 of 6 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 120 of 234 51% 78 of 179 29 of 41 13 of 14 106 of 217 14 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joshua Van 26 of 77 33% 10 of 54 10 of 14 6 of 9 25 of 75 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 48 52% 11 of 29 11 of 15 3 of 4 23 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Joshua Van 38 of 94 40% 23 of 72 7 of 14 8 of 8 38 of 92 0 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 51 of 100 51% 36 of 81 10 of 14 5 of 5 40 of 88 11 of 12 0 of 0
3 Joshua Van 39 of 116 33% 12 of 75 11 of 20 16 of 21 38 of 114 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 44 of 86 51% 31 of 69 8 of 12 5 of 5 43 of 84 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joshua Van vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zhumagulov (-195), Van (+165)

Round 1
After multiple withdrawals and opponent changes, Zhumagulov (14-8, 1-5 UFC) finally finds himself with a dance partner. In the flyweight division, he will face off against UFC newcomer and Fury FC staple Van (7-1, 0-0 UFC), who lives in Texas but hails from Myanmar. The Kazakhstan-based Zhumagulov has a lifeline after losing three straight fights, but with multiple controversial decision defeats on his ledger, he comes up against a fighter in Van who has never before heard the final bell as a pro. This potentially fast-paced affair will be officiated by referee Andrew Glenn, and it begins with a glove touch. Zhumagulov pushes the pace and flicks out a jab, and Van snaps his head back and gets kicked low with a foot that slides up into his cup. Van adjusts his athletic supporter and does not pause, and Zhumagulov walks after him with a front kick and a few follow-up punches. They trade heavy kicks, and Zhumagulov gives chase with a looping right hand. Zhumagulov digs a left to the body and right to the head, and he hops forward with a left hook. Van counters with a short right, and the two get their jabs going. Zhumagulov slips a right hook, and he kicks the calf in response. Van attacks the body and gets jabbed for his effort, and he snaps one back to shake up Zhumagulov’s new haircut. Van follows a jab with a sharp right hand, and he digs a left straight to the midsection. Van intercepts an advancing Zhumagulov with a leg kick, and Zhumagulov swings his way into a body lock takedown. Van breaks away with a knee to the body, and he slides back as Zhumagulov aims strikes at his torso. Zhumagulov comes up just short on a winging left hook, and he plants a one-two on the side of the head. Van looks to make him pay with a similar combination, and Zhumagulov is right there in front of him throwing hammers. Zhumagulov dips down to sling a left, and he walks through an uppercut to crash through a single and deposit Van to the floor. Van jumps right back up, and Zhumagulov hits a quick mat return. Van once more is able to wall-walk upright again, and they separate and fire off jabs. Both men aim body kicks at the same time, and Zhumagulov misses with a three-punch salvo. The close frame ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov

Round 2
The second round begins with the two trading quick strikes, and Zhumagulov starts off with multiple leg kicks. Van marches through them to push out jabs, and he surprises his foe with a one-two in the middle of Zhumagulov’s activity. Zhumagulov chips at him with jabs and leg kicks, and he gets stung with an overhand right but shakes it off. They clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks, and the jab from Van is starting to mark up his opponent. Van follows his jabs with right hands, and Zhumagulov swings back harder with inaccurate blows. The leg kicks from Zhumagulov are connecting, and Van backs him away and brushes his foe’s hair back with a blazing high kick. Van strides into a one-two, and he pushes out a front kick that Zhumagulov catches but not convert into a takedown. Zhumagulov loops a right hand around the guard, and Van whips a high kick at him that slams into the guard. Van duplicates the head kick and rocks Zhumagulov, and he proceeds to unload with a vicious salvo of punches that blasts into Zhumagulov. The Kazakh fighter toughs it out and counters well enough to keep Van honest, and he skirts away, still a little wobbled. Van does not recklessly chase, instead measuring with his jab and one-two, and Zhumagulov is more committed to single power punches. Zhumagulov telegraphs them as Van walks him down, he gets clipped behind the ear with a right hand. Van turns a front kick into a punch combination as Zhumagulov is trying to find his timing. Van eats a low kick, and he backpedals as Zhumagulov gives him the business with several kicks and a sharp uppercut. Zhumagulov wings a right hand that grazes the cheek and opens a cut, and he connects with a heavy leg kick. The two trade furious punches, and Van sends Zhumagulov staggering back. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist that smacks into Van’s chin, and he tries another that misses the mark. Van, seeing this, decides to spin with his own elbow, and the growingly exciting round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van

Round 3
There is a quick glove touch before the two flyweights decide to get right back to action, and they trade punches in a fun exchange. Van leans back from a haymaker to stick out several jabs, and he catches Zhumagulov coming in with straight punches. Zhumagulov still manages to land with his sweeping hook, and Van drives him back with a jab. Van follows a jab with a right hook that shakes Zhumagulov up, but Zhumagulov bites down on his mouthpiece and leaps forward with a left hook. Van’s jab is money, as Zhumagulov spins with a failed back fist in response. Van gets off an oblique kick to change the stance briefly, but Zhumagulov gathers a full head of steam and kicks the lead leg in retaliation. Zhumagulov gets his bell rung with a short stream of punches, and Van is in the driver’s seat as he knocks Zhumagulov’s head around. Zhumagulov throws one or two, while Van strings several together generally. This volume is giving Zhumagulov fits, and Van opens up with a step-in elbow that leads to them closing the distance and bumping their heads together. Zhumagulov protests, and after a moment of confusion, they get back to it. Van keeps coming forward, and he absorbs and shrugs off a left hook to jump at the Kazakh fighter with a jump kick. Zhumagulov lashes out with a few punches, and Van jabs to break it up and throw back a hard right hand. Zhumagulov spins with a back fist, and Van times this to bust Zhumagulov’s nose up with a combination. Van continues to push the pace, flicking out jabs and not missing a beat. Zhumagulov throws back with impunity, missing several looping strikes and others graze off the intended target to little effect. Van times a jab into a huge right hand, and when it misses, he chambers and fires another shorter right that meets the mark. Zhumagulov spins recklessly, and he sinks in a left hand when he recovers. Van stuns his foe with a one-two, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the hairline. With 15 seconds left in the fight, the two start brawling. Van lands heavy blows, Zhumagulov gives chase and spins several times, only to get popped with sharp punches as he does. The 21-year-old newcomer sticks his tongue out, and after another exchange, the striking battle wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van (29-28 Van)

The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, citing a giant skill gap. He notes Zhalgas has been screwed by judges but should bully the UFC newcomer Joshua Van with his wrestling and pressure. He mentions the line at -185 is expensive for a guy 1-4 in his last five but expects Zhalgas to blow through Van.

"he should absolutely blow through this kid that line is fine"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, believing he is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Joshua Van is only 21 and coming into the UFC too soon, with poor takedown defense. He expects Zhumagulov to wrestle and control the fight, winning a decision. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's deceptive UFC record due to tough competition.

"give me a Zog assuming cool up to grind this one out and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his wrestling and grappling advantage. He thinks Van is too young and inexperienced, and that Zhumagulov's pressure will overwhelm him. He mentions the Paddy Pimblett haircut as a good luck charm.

"Zogos has the better skill set better skill set should win the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Connor picks Zhumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in recent fights to be more willing to be crazy and aggressive. He notes that Joshua Van is super raw, only 21 with eight pro fights, and while he has a good foundation, he often gets surprised and doesn't get out of range quickly. Connor thinks Zhumagulov's athleticism and aggression will be too much for the young Van. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's head may not be in the right place, but against this level of competition, he still expects Zhumagulov to win.

"I obviously have to pick Jumagulov as the far more experienced fighter who has proven in his recent fights to be way more willing than ever before to be crazy and aggressive."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Joshua Van

Daniel Levi picks Joshua Van, citing his athleticism, killer instinct, and ability to create finishes. He thinks Zhumagulov is beatable, fights close, and fades. He acknowledges Van's greenness but believes he can bully Zhumagulov. He is taking a shot on the newcomer.

"I'm gonna go on a limit I'm gonna take the newcomer to come out here and upset a very beatable fighter in zagas"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The host picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by dominant decision. He believes Zhumagulov's experience and motivation will be key, and that he will keep the pressure on from the start, landing takedowns and controlling on the mat. He notes Van's lack of experience (only 2.5 years in MMA) and thinks the experience gap will be too much.

"give me Zuma gulov by dominant decision Victory here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, citing his experience and durability. He thinks Van is too green and that Zhumagulov's pressure and wrestling will be too much. He expects a clear win.

"This should be one-way traffic as far as I'm concerned."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov, noting that Joshua Van relies on finishes and has only won by finish or been finished. He believes Zhumagulov is very difficult to finish, with only Manel Kape stopping him, and has experience against tough competition. He doubts Van can push a pace for three rounds in his debut, especially since Van was training for a fight in August and may not have ideal cardio.

"I'm gonna go with zalgasm agilov here Joshua van looked at him he's a good fighter young finisher... I just don't think he's gonna win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Zhumagulov. He notes that Van is a low-output flyweight who is competent but not confident in taking the fight to opponents. Zane points out that if Van tries to have a kickboxing match, he won't match Zhumagulov's pace, and if Zhumagulov takes him down, Van may not be able to meaningfully respond. He also mentions the caveat that Zhumagulov's mentality has been getting worse, but he has been getting better as a fighter. Overall, Zane sees a huge experience gap and expects Zhumagulov to win.

"It just seems like a pretty obviously overwhelming experience golf between these two."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 0 115 of 209 55% 141 of 237 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 119 of 234 50% 141 of 258 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 43 of 77 55% 46 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Charles Johnson 0 33 of 56 58% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 46 of 77 59% 65 of 98 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
3 Charles Johnson 0 50 of 93 53% 52 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 115 of 209 55% 64 of 142 41 of 54 10 of 13 101 of 191 14 of 18 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 119 of 234 50% 36 of 119 34 of 62 49 of 53 112 of 225 6 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 32 of 60 53% 15 of 34 15 of 22 2 of 4 30 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 43 of 77 55% 10 of 35 15 of 23 18 of 19 40 of 74 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 33 of 56 58% 13 of 30 15 of 20 5 of 6 26 of 45 7 of 11 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 46 of 77 59% 15 of 37 16 of 24 15 of 16 43 of 74 2 of 2 1 of 1
3 Charles Johnson 50 of 93 53% 36 of 78 11 of 12 3 of 3 45 of 88 5 of 5 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 30 of 80 37% 11 of 47 3 of 15 16 of 18 29 of 77 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Johnson vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-155), Zhumagulov (+135)

Round 1
This flyweight affair unexpectedly shifts from the prelims to the main card, in the form of a must-win between former LFA champ Johnson (11-3, 0-1 UFC) and ex-Fight Nights Global titleholder Zhumagulov (14-7, 1-4 UFC). The third man in the cage will be referee Keith Peterson, and this means the nonsense has left the building. Zhumagulov offers a glove touch, but Johnson passes on it. Zhumagulov introduces himself with several quick, resounding leg kicks, and he swipes out with a right hand to follow. Johnson keeps a high guard to blow the strikes that are aimed at his head, but one looping shot finds its way around the guard. Johnson pushes off with his left hand, and his hand or thumb scrapes the eye. Peterson calls in the translator and doctor immediately, and the replay shows that it was at best the tape of the glove or the palm that connected with the eyeball – thus being a legal blow. Zhumagulov is asked if he can continue, and after 80 seconds, the fighters get back to it. Johnson opens up after the break with leg kicks from both sides, and Zhumagulov walks him down and throws hammers. Zhumagulov blasts the lead leg with a kick that forces Johnson to switch stances, and he throws ferocious right hooks to close the distance as Johnson maintains reach. The aggression makes Johnson slip, and Zhumagulov allows him back up so that he can belt his man with a couple more overhand rights. One staggers “InnerG,” and he fights off a level change and gets his wits about him at the same time. Zhumagulov continues his reliance on his heavy right hand, and a thudding shot hurts Johnson again. Johnson fights through it and jabs, and Zhumagulov races forward and works the body. Zhumagulov ducks and swings heavy blows, but Johnson sees them coming and tags the Kazakhstani fighters with a short combination. Johnson lets loose a front kick that slams square into the cup, and Zhumagulov holds his arm out in hopes of Peterson seeing the foul and pausing the action. Zhumagulov collapses to the ground after the foul, and he coughs and sputters in major pain. Johnson walks to a neutral corner and sits down. Zhumagulov takes all the time he needs and gets back to it, and when he resumes the melee, he is energized and swings at “InnerG” with all of his muster. Zhumagulov pursues a takedown, and Johnson springs back up and initiates a brawl. Both men deliver power punches and kicks, with neither man bowing from the intensity, and Johnson throws with all his might and takes an awkward step as he turns himself over. Johnson spins with a back kick, whips a high kick up and gets his bell rung with a right hand. Johnson hoots at his man after taking the shot, and Zhumagulov chases him down. The round ends before they can continue battling.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov

Round 2
The flyweights meet right in the middle and proceed to engage with attacks to the head, body and legs indiscriminately. Zhumagulov’s leg kicks hamper his foe’s movement, and seemingly every time he gets off a kick to the inner thigh, Johnson changes stances. Johnson releases a kick to the body, and Zhumagulov answers with one to the inside of his foe’s knee. Zhumagulov whips a left hand that makes Johnson bounce off the wall, and both men have the power to get the other’s attention but not decimate them. Zhumagulov loads up on a few body shots, and Johnson times them and cracks Zhumagulov with a fast response. Zhumagulov walks his adversary down and keeps chopping down either leg, and Johnson pushes him away as Zhumagulov complains about another eye poke. Peterson does not buy it, and he tells them to keep fighting. Zhumagulov chases his man down and clinches up with him, and a dangerous knee blasts Johnson in the cup. Johnson falls to the ground and rolls around, marching around the cage and stomping out the pain. Despite several fouls, there is no ill will towards one another, and they resume after 45 seconds. Zhumagulov, hellbent for leather, releases several powerful swinging blows that careen off Johnson’s head. “InnerG” sticks and moves with them, absorbing them but not appearing concerned. Johnson lets go with several body kicks, and he punches the body to bend Zhumagulov over. Johnson, feeling himself, marches straight into a few punches, and Zhumagulov trips Johnson down to the floor in a wild exchange. Johnson fights his way up and uses the fence to drag Zhumagulov off of his back. Johnson turns him around and knees Zhumagulov up high a few times, and he fights off a trip and starts trading short uppercuts. Both fighters rip the body with ferocious punches until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zhumagulov

Round 3
Johnson’s corner does not mince words to their fighter between rounds, and Johnson is ready for action with five minutes to go. The two slap hands, and then immediately start swinging. Johnson attempts to kick the body, but the ball of his foot bounces into the cup and forces another stoppage. Peterson rules the blow as accidental and implores Johnson to be careful, as this foul-filled contest continues after about 1:45 of recovery. Zhumagulov shakes his head several times and appears to want Peterson to do something, but there is nothing to be done as they get back to it. Zhumagulov hurts Johnson badly with a leg kick on the right leg, and Johnson is extremely compromised and stomps his leg several times to get feeling in it again. Zhumagulov tries to lay into him with one final assault, but it is not enough to put Johnson away. Johnson starts jumping and running in place as he rewires his leg, and he manages to tag Zhumagulov with a right hand on the inside. When Johnson resets to put that damaged leg forward, Zhumagulov is quick to kick it. They trade powerful punches without much in the way of defense or head movement, and Zhumagulov appears to be fading as they approach the midpoint of the final round. Johnson is fired up, and he nails Zhumagulov with several punches. As he grows in confidence, “InnerG” is energized and actively landing, bloodying up the face of his presumably fading opponent. Zhumagulov scores with counters, and he continues to batter the leg. Johnson’s poker face is immeasurable as he walks Zhumagulov down and looks to hit him with everything and the kitchen sink. Zhumagulov barely dodges a high kick, but the uppercut that follows clacks square into his jaw. Johnson initiates a wrestling exchange, but he uses it to close the distance and belt Zhumagulov with a right hand. Zhumagulov fights back with the last of his energy reserves, knocking his man back with a right hook but not keeping him away for long. Johnson blitzes forward and stops a takedown effort from succeeding, and he lines up several uppercuts from up close. Johnson pushes off and looks up at the clock, and he unloads with one final surge of strikes. As the waning seconds remain, Johnson pulls back on the offense, and he goes to hug Zhumagulov before time expires. What a wild fight, one that defied the nickname of referee “No Nonsense” Keith Peterson.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Zhumagulov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Zhumagulov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Johnson (29-28 Zhumagulov)

The Official Result
Charles Johnson def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
LOSS vs Jeff Molina
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeff Molina 0 56 of 148 37% 129 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 37 of 112 33% 68 of 146 2 of 13 15% 0 0 5:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeff Molina 0 14 of 35 40% 30 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 14 of 32 43% 22 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:16
2 Jeff Molina 0 13 of 33 39% 60 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 7 of 25 28% 20 of 40 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:37
3 Jeff Molina 0 29 of 80 36% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 16 of 55 29% 26 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeff Molina 56 of 148 37% 43 of 133 6 of 7 7 of 8 49 of 139 5 of 7 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 37 of 112 33% 10 of 74 17 of 26 10 of 12 28 of 103 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeff Molina 14 of 35 40% 11 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 14 of 32 43% 4 of 21 5 of 5 5 of 6 8 of 26 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jeff Molina 13 of 33 39% 7 of 27 3 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 7 of 25 28% 3 of 18 3 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jeff Molina 29 of 80 36% 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 75 2 of 3 2 of 2
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 16 of 55 29% 3 of 35 9 of 15 4 of 5 15 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jeff Molina

Angelo describes Jeff Molina as a good striker with volume and kicks, while Zhalgas Zhumagulov is tough with power and chain wrestling. He notes Molina has been taken down multiple times but still won those fights. He leans Molina but warns about Molina's kicks being caught, which could lead to a Zhumagulov decision win.

"i'm gonna lean molina here because even in two fights where he was taken down multiple times he was able to keep the pressure and control the striking to win those fights"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jeff Molina

Big Brady picks Jeff Molina to win by decision. He likes Molina's volume striking (over 8 significant strikes per minute) and well-rounded game, and thinks Molina will outwork Zhumagulov on the feet. He notes that Zhumagulov is a good fighter but has not had success with takedowns in the UFC, and even if he gets them down, Molina is good at getting back up. He expects the fight to stay standing and Molina's volume to be the difference.

Molina by decision
"I feel like molina has what it takes to win this by decision here so give me uh molina give me molina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jeff Molina

Cody picks Molina but is uneasy, noting Molina's volume and potential but also his untested competition. He thinks Molina's future is bright but this fight could be competitive. He is not confident enough to bet heavily.

"i think molina is the rightful favorite here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jeff Molina

Daniel Levi leans toward Jeff Molina, citing his high volume and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Zhumagulov's ability to make fights close and his experience, but believes Molina's output and takedown defense will be key. He will not lay -185, preferring to watch or take the dog.

"i'm gonna lean with molina here but i'm laying that price tag my man"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov as an underdog, citing his experience against tougher competition. He notes Molina's hype may be premature and that Zhumagulov has faced better fighters. He thinks it will be a close decision and sees value in the dog.

"i'm going to put zuma gulab i think he's my underdog shot number two"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jeff Molina

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Molina's height and reach advantage, good takedown defense, and improving skills. He expects Molina to win the first round via grappling, then pick up the pace on the feet in the last two rounds. He doesn't see Zhumagulov bullying Molina and thinks Molina will land kicks and punches at range.

"i'm going to go jeff molina 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Manel Kape
TKO (punches) R1 4:02 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 2 53 of 72 73% 54 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 31 of 79 39% 31 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 53 of 72 73% 39 of 56 5 of 7 9 of 9 53 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 31 of 79 39% 19 of 61 6 of 11 6 of 7 31 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manel Kape vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Round 1
When this flyweight fight ends, one of the two competitors between Kape (16-6, 1-2 UFC) and Zhumagulov (14-5, 1-2 UFC) will likely lift their UFC record to .500 and earn their second victory under the organization’s banner. In this classic battle of Angola vs. Kazakhstan, referee Keith Peterson may have his hands full overseeing what could be a fast-paced contest, but there will be no nonsense allowed while it takes place. Kape is amped up, and Peterson backs him off several times, and there is no sign of respect with a glove touch. Kape leaps out of his corner when the round begins in an attempt to beat Jorge Masvidal’s record, but Zhumagulov sees it come and pushes it away. Kape pops him with a right hand on the way out, but Zhumagulov is not fazed and pressures Kape with a few big punches. As Kape goes low with a kick, Zhumagulov tags him with an overhand right that knocks Kape back to the wall and draws a huge smile on his face. Zhumagulov does not get too aggressive, instead finding his range with an uppercut and a right hand. Zhumagulov trips, but he gathers himself before Kape can take advantage of it. The Kazakh marches Kape down, but he does not do so recklessly into a counter that Kape sets up in the form of a huge right hand. Zhumagulov steps forward with a knee, and he snaps a jab out that surprises Kape. They trade quick punches, and Zhumagulov follows up an exchange with a leg kick. When Kape lands with another kick to the calf, Zhumagulov jumps forward to drill him in the face. Zhumagulov checks one such kick, and he evades the leaping knee that soars at his chin. Kape tries to stick and move, only for Zhumagulov to follow him with a pair of punches that land flush. Zhumagulov swings a kick that collides into the thigh, and he rushes in with a punch salvo that Kape cannot escape in time. Kape lands with a left and a right, only for him to get countered on the way out. Kape continues to connect with leg kicks, and he sits down on a right hand that knocks Zhumagulov to his seat. Kape cannot keep Zhumagulov down, so when Zhumagulov stands, he busts him up with a few big right hands that send him careening to the wall.
Seeing he has his man hurt, Kape opens up with a brutal series of punches to the head and body and tees off on Zhumagulov. Zhumagulov tries to shell up and protect himself from the onslaught, but lightning-quick strikes get through and drop Zhumagulov down to the ground.
Peterson intervenes as soon as Zhumagulov slumps over, and Kape may very well have saved himself from a pink slip with an emphatic knockout over an opponent that had only been finished once in his career, back in 2015.

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Zhalgas Zhumagulov R1 4:02 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhalgas, liking the odds at +190. He notes Zhalgas is a chain wrestler with relentless pressure, and Manel has a negative striking differential and makes IQ mistakes. Angelo thinks Zhalgas can win via takedowns or cage control, but is nervous about the line moving.

1 unit at +190 (considered but not yet placed)
"i like zalgas here i i like the odds are worrisome before i even saw the odds i just saw the match up and i was like well zalgas right that's easy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Manel Kape

Big Brady picks Manel Kape to win by knockout. He believes Kape is the more skilled and well-rounded fighter, with better striking, wrestling, and BJJ. However, he expresses frustration with Kape's low volume, noting that if Kape would throw more, he could be a serious problem. He thinks Kape's 94% finish rate suggests he will finish Zhumagulov, who has been knocked out before. Brady is confident but not overly so due to Kape's tendency to underperform.

by knockout
"give me uh manel cop to win by knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert pick date unknown

Cody agrees with Paul, not making a pick. He thinks Kape's price is too high given his low output and that Zhumagulov's volume could cause problems. Cody says he can't recommend betting Kape at -250.

"yep i agree with you on all fronts there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi picks Manel Kape to knock out Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He believes Kape has ridiculous speed, movement, and punching power, and that Zhumagulov is small for the weight class and can be bullied. He notes that Zhumagulov is always on the back foot and that Kape can eat his best shots. He thinks Kape will finish him, possibly after working for it.

knockout
"I'm gonna go with manila cape to knock him out"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Jacob picks Zhalgas, placing a plus 3.5 round bet at -110. He notes Zhalgas is intelligent and will time takedowns, and Manel is overconfident and has decision losses. Jacob thinks Zhalgas will find a way to win, possibly by stealing rounds.

Plus 3.5 round bet on Zhalgas at -110
"i have a three and a half bet on him um you know if kate finds a way to uh you know pull out another win then maybe i'll i'll jump on his bandwagon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Manel Kape

I lean Kape. He is the more talented striker with power and speed, but his output is a concern. Zhumagulov keeps a decent pace and is durable. I think Kape's power will be the difference, but the fight is likely to go the distance. I like the fight goes to decision prop at minus 165 and Kape by decision at plus 130.

Kape by decision +130, fight goes to decision -165
"i am leaning on the cop side here i'm not paying minus 260 at this point in time because again it could be a very very close fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul does not make a clear pick, expressing skepticism about Kape's -250 price. He notes Kape's low output and lack of urgency, and that Zhumagulov is a high-volume fighter who could make it close. Paul thinks the line is too high and that Kape might not finish, making it a risky bet.

"for minus 250 this is a walk in the park i don't necessarily think it's a walk in the park knocking out zogus good luck body good luck so you're gonna have to fight him for 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape to win by third-round TKO via knee. He expects a slow first round with clinch work, then Kape's leg kicks and body knees will take effect. In the third, Zhumagulov will be compromised, and Kape will land a fight-ending knee in the clinch, similar to his fight against Matias Nicolau.

third round tko
"i'm going to go manila cap third round tko that's what i'm going to do"
WIN vs Jerome Rivera
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:02 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 · Jan 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 68 of 169 40% 94 of 200 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:38
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 59 of 132 44% 74 of 150 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 14 of 58 24% 25 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 23 of 39 58% 29 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
2 Amir Albazi 0 31 of 69 44% 32 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 25 of 56 44% 25 of 56 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Amir Albazi 0 23 of 42 54% 37 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 11 of 37 29% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 68 of 169 40% 40 of 128 15 of 24 13 of 17 64 of 163 2 of 3 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 59 of 132 44% 22 of 84 31 of 41 6 of 7 58 of 128 1 of 2 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 14 of 58 24% 6 of 45 4 of 6 4 of 7 14 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 23 of 39 58% 9 of 24 12 of 13 2 of 2 23 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Amir Albazi 31 of 69 44% 19 of 51 5 of 10 7 of 8 30 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 25 of 56 44% 9 of 34 13 of 18 3 of 4 25 of 55 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Amir Albazi 23 of 42 54% 15 of 32 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 3
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Amir Albazi

Big Brady picks Amir Albazi as an underdog, citing his decent striking and good ground game. He notes Albazi submitted Malcolm Gordon in his UFC debut. He expects a close fight and thinks Albazi will edge it out with takedowns. He is hesitant because Zhumagulov's fights are often close and he could have won his last fight.

"i'm going to go with the underdog here i'm going to go with albazi"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Amir Albazi

Daniel Levi picks Amir Albazi, citing his aggression and forward pressure. He notes Zhumagulov gets bullied and has questionable wins. Levi believes Albazi is the more talented fighter and will win by being more aggressive, though he acknowledges it could be a toss-up.

"i'm going with amir al bazi i just think he projects to go higher i think he's the more talented guy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Amir Albazi

Albazi is the younger, improving fighter with a strong grappling game. He has shown he can get the fight to the ground and has good jiu-jitsu, as seen in his submission win over Malcolm Gordon. Zhumagulov is primarily a striker who doesn't have great takedown defense and tends to lose early rounds. In a three-round fight, Albazi only needs to win the first two rounds by securing takedowns and controlling top position. I expect Albazi to win via decision.

"I'll go with Amir Albazi to win this fight via decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Amir Albazi

The MMA Guru picks Amir Albazi to win by submission in the first round, but later also mentions a close decision. He notes Albazi is younger, stronger, and more explosive, while Zhumagulov is slowing down. He references Albazi's impressive UFC debut submission and his grappling skills. He believes Zhumagulov's grinding style is not respected by judges, and Albazi's power and takedowns will be key. He also mentions betting on Albazi as an underdog.

Underdog bet, submission in first round or 29-28 decision
"i'm going to go with amir al bazi here by submission in the first round bigger guy stronger guy more explosive younger as well"
LOSS vs Raulian Paiva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raulian Paiva 0 52 of 121 42% 56 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 66 of 119 55% 73 of 126 2 of 11 18% 0 0 0:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raulian Paiva 0 21 of 47 44% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
2 Raulian Paiva 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 27 of 44 61% 32 of 49 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
3 Raulian Paiva 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 20 of 34 58% 22 of 36 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raulian Paiva 52 of 121 42% 14 of 71 22 of 31 16 of 19 51 of 119 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 66 of 119 55% 19 of 61 17 of 25 30 of 33 64 of 115 1 of 2 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raulian Paiva 21 of 47 44% 6 of 30 8 of 9 7 of 8 21 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 19 of 41 46% 5 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10 19 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Raulian Paiva 16 of 40 40% 5 of 23 7 of 11 4 of 6 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 27 of 44 61% 7 of 20 9 of 13 11 of 11 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Raulian Paiva 15 of 34 44% 3 of 18 7 of 11 5 of 5 14 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 20 of 34 58% 7 of 16 2 of 6 11 of 12 20 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert pick date unknown

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.

Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Big Brady picks Raulian Paiva by decision, noting he was not impressed with Zhumagulov's tape against lower competition. He believes Paiva is the better overall striker and will outpoint him, though he may not bet at -185.

"i just think paiva is the better overall striker and uh and yeah so i'm going to go pivot i think it's going to win a decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Daniel Levi is very high on Raulian Paiva, calling him one of his favorite flyweight prospects. He praises Paiva's length, forward pressure, volume, and durability, noting he can take shots and has a good chin. He criticizes Zhumagulov as small for 125, easily bullied, and having a watered-down Russian style. Levi believes Paiva will push him back and dominate, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going with my top prospect which is Holly and Paiva I think he beats this kid up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Raulian Paiva

Paiva has impressive length and striking, especially his kicking, which should give Zhumagulov issues closing the distance. Paiva is slowly coming into his own and has a win over a high-level fighter in earlier Santos. Expects Paiva to pick him apart on the feet and win by decision.

"I like Paiva's length and is striking here his kicking is very very impressive too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert pick date unknown
No clear pick

The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.