UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Petr Yan
5.16 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
4.24 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.7 TD Avg
49.0% TD Acc.
86.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - José Aldo
3.65 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.81 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
0.47 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
92.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Petr Yan - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 134 of 383 34% 196 of 458 2 of 29 6% 2 1 5:12
Petr Yan 0 139 of 230 60% 159 of 251 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 22 of 68 32% 40 of 87 0 of 8 0% 0 0 1:33
Petr Yan 0 17 of 32 53% 23 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 19 of 73 26% 41 of 97 0 of 5 0% 0 1 2:06
Petr Yan 0 21 of 34 61% 25 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:34
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 62 33% 32 of 77 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:07
Petr Yan 0 25 of 46 54% 33 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 37 of 71 52% 43 of 80 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:15
Petr Yan 0 38 of 55 69% 40 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 35 of 109 32% 40 of 117 0 of 5 0% 1 0 0:11
Petr Yan 0 38 of 63 60% 38 of 63 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 134 of 383 34% 105 of 341 22 of 34 7 of 8 116 of 353 18 of 30 0 of 0
Petr Yan 139 of 230 60% 109 of 195 17 of 19 13 of 16 119 of 204 18 of 24 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 22 of 68 32% 16 of 60 4 of 6 2 of 2 18 of 63 4 of 5 0 of 0
Petr Yan 17 of 32 53% 15 of 30 1 of 1 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 19 of 73 26% 19 of 71 0 of 2 0 of 0 17 of 69 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 21 of 34 61% 18 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 21 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 62 33% 18 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 52 6 of 10 0 of 0
Petr Yan 25 of 46 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 34 7 of 10 2 of 2
4 Merab Dvalishvili 37 of 71 52% 28 of 60 7 of 8 2 of 3 34 of 67 3 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 55 69% 28 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 5 32 of 48 6 of 7 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 35 of 109 32% 24 of 93 8 of 13 3 of 3 32 of 102 3 of 7 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 63 60% 28 of 50 4 of 5 6 of 8 33 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili, emphasizing his insane pace, cardio, and improvement since the first fight. He questions what has changed for Petr Yan to win the rematch, noting that Merab dominated the first fight with 11 takedowns. He believes Merab's pressure and takedowns will be too much for Yan again, and he is surprised the odds are only -450.

"I'm on the Morab side. I think the insane pressure, the insane cardio, all the things that have him nicknamed the machine have him win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili, noting his dominant performance in the first fight. He acknowledges Yan may have been compromised but still favors Dvalishvili's wrestling and pace. He expects Dvalishvili to win by decision, as he always does.

Dvalishvili by decision
"I'm going to take Morad Deval Philly to win this fight how he always wins fights and that is going to be by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Cody is fully behind Merab, citing his relentless wrestling and pace. He notes that Merab took Yan down 11 times in their first fight and has since dominated Olympic gold medalist Cejudo and Umar. He believes Merab will again win by decision, as Yan is durable and hard to finish. He mentions the decision prop at minus 300 but prefers the money line.

"Morab does what Morab does. And frankly, this is like such a lame kind of breakdown, I suppose, from me, but it's like until I'm going to just keep putting money on Morab."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Connor argues that Merab has only improved since their first fight, becoming a more purposeful striker who uses takedown threats effectively. He notes that Petr Yan has lost the aggressive instinct that once allowed him to change fights with single shots, and now fights more cautiously, which plays into Merab's relentless pace. Connor believes Yan's multi-stage game can be disrupted by Merab's constant pressure, making it hard for Yan to build initiative. He concludes that while Yan has the power to win, it's a lot to gamble on.

Odds: Merab opened -260, now -415; Yan opened +220, now +315. Notes that Yan hasn't stopped anyone in 5 years and hasn't scored a knockdown since the Sandhagen fight.
"You have to pick Merab. High-level fight. Meaningful."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel believes Merab's relentless pace and takedown volume will overwhelm Petr Yan, who tends to take rounds off to make reads. He notes Merab's improvements since their first fight, including 20 takedowns against Cory Sandhagen. Daniel doubts Yan can bridge the output gap and sees Merab as the clear best bantamweight. He mentions the fight is a pass for betting due to poor odds on Merab.

"I'm picking Morab in this spot, man. I really am."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Lucrative James acknowledges Merab's dominance but believes the betting line of -450 is too wide. He notes Petr Yan was likely injured in the first fight and has had time to recover. He thinks Yan can compete in minutes and moments, potentially squeaking out a decision win. He emphasizes value betting and picks Yan at +350 odds.

"I'm going to go out and say that Peter Yan is the betting pick for this show for me for this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The host notes that Dvalishvili won the first fight easily as a +250 underdog and is now a -450 favorite for good reason. He expects Yan to be more aggressive but believes Dvalishvili's pace, pressure, and activity will make it hard for Yan to land impactful shots, leading to a decision win for Dvalishvili.

win by decision; odds comment: plus 250 underdog first fight, now minus 450 favorite
"Jan might be a little bit more aggressive this time around but I think Dvalish Philly will make it hard for Yan to land an impactful enough shot... win this fight on the scorecards and still bantamweight champion."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Merab's wrestling and decision victory. He points out that Yan has lost rounds to lesser fighters like Song Dong and Marcus McGhee, while Merab has only improved. He notes that Yan is a slow starter and Merab's pressure negates his striking combinations. He concludes that Merab by decision is the play.

"He got 50-45 to cross the board on all three judges scorecards. On top of that, he got taken down 11 times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

The Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Petr Yan, despite the wide odds. He notes Merab's relentless takedown volume and cardio will overwhelm Yan, though Yan will have moments. The Guru predicts a 48-47 decision for Merab.

"I've got Morab 48 47, man."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Merab's style heavily favors him. He points out that Yan's game relies on building initiative through counter-punching and then pressuring, but Merab never allows that foothold. Zane notes that even when Yan defends takedowns well, Merab's constant attacks prevent Yan from establishing his own offense. He highlights that Yan's last three fights show a loss of confidence and aggression, making it unlikely he can replicate the moments of violence that defined his prime.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"It's really hard to see a version of this where Merab just doesn't get..."
WIN vs Marcus McGhee
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 81 of 146 55% 130 of 202 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:11
Marcus McGhee 0 64 of 170 37% 66 of 173 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 22 of 43 51% 24 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcus McGhee 0 22 of 55 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 33 of 64 51% 37 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marcus McGhee 0 34 of 93 36% 35 of 94 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
3 Petr Yan 0 26 of 39 66% 69 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:11
Marcus McGhee 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 81 of 146 55% 63 of 122 10 of 12 8 of 12 58 of 114 23 of 32 0 of 0
Marcus McGhee 64 of 170 37% 44 of 128 8 of 18 12 of 24 62 of 165 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 22 of 43 51% 14 of 31 4 of 4 4 of 8 15 of 33 7 of 10 0 of 0
Marcus McGhee 22 of 55 40% 15 of 41 2 of 5 5 of 9 20 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 33 of 64 51% 28 of 58 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 54 8 of 10 0 of 0
Marcus McGhee 34 of 93 36% 25 of 72 5 of 12 4 of 9 34 of 91 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 26 of 39 66% 21 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 18 of 27 8 of 12 0 of 0
Marcus McGhee 8 of 22 36% 4 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 6 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-375); McGhee (+275)

Round 1
After years of hovering around top-five matchups, Yan (18-5, 10-4 UFC) gets a much-needed layup in the form of rising talent McGhee (10-1, 4-0 UFC). The MMA Lab product introduced himself to the organization in 2023, and has since rattled off three stoppages and a decision victory over Jonathan Martinez to reach this place in line. The sole arbiter of the bout will be referee Dan Movahedi, who tells the bantamweights it’s time to fight. They fight, but not before bumping fists.
Yan moves straight to the center of the Octagon, where he operates out of range from the kicks of McGhee. Yan keeps his lead hand outstretched to help him parry oncoming fire, so McGhee kicks him in the calf and then the ribs. McGhee tries to crash forward to throw hands, and Yan brushes him aside and keeps himself positioned directly in front of McGhee. Yan crisply counters a body kick with an overhand right, and he blocks a right hand coming back his way. McGhee connects partially over the top, but Yan shrugs it off and hits him back three times. They come together, and Yan knocks him back with a left hand and then kicks his leg out from beneath him. McGhee springs back up, and Yan goes back to hammering the front leg. His check left hook wobbles “The Maniac,” who has to jog to the side to get his legs back. From there, McGhee steps in with a knee to the body. Yan smacks his front leg in response.
McGhee tries to crowd his man, but Yan is able to duck and move, all while looking for a counter. McGhee secures a body kick without taking anything back, and he zips out of the way of danger and plants three punches on the Russian’s mug. He chains a few more behind it, and he circles back and away to draw Yan in. McGhee kicks the front calf and starts trading in a clinch, with both men shooting off uppercuts in a 135-pound trade exchange reminiscent of Don Frye’s magical battle in Pride. Yan takes punches and gives them back hard, including an uppercut that just brushes past the hair. McGhee lands a few shots, gets kicked in response, and he tags Yan and appears to buckle his legs for a moment. McGhee lets Yan recover, kicking at him before the one-minute break.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 2
Fans cheer and chant for Yan as soon as the round begins, and he takes their energy and channels it into a crisp right hand on the jaw. Yan overswings his way in, and McGhee ducks and shoots in for a takedown. The Russian shuts down the effort and misses two looping hooks by a matter of inches. McGhee wings a left hook at him that pounds into the guard, and they knock one another back with single power punches. McGhee cracks Yan again with a one-two, and he puts two more on the chin and then kicks the front leg. McGhee connects with a solid uppercut that splits the guard, and his low kick on the way out disrupts Yan from countering. They clash their heads together coming in, and Yan winds up with everything he has and smashes his right fist into McGhee’s jaw. The rising talent stumbles, and Yan measures him and blasts him with a number of left hands that rip open a cut on McGhee’s eyebrow. McGhee is unafraid to stand and bang, firing back at Yan and even catching him with an uppercut.
Yan shrugs the strikes off so he can unload a right hand on the chin, and he slips a strike and rips a left hand over the top. McGhee digs a right to the body and Yan knocks him back with a right and a left upstairs. McGhee is tough but getting outpowered at this point, and Yan thinks about mixing things up with his trip try. McGhee loops punches around the guard, but Yan’s are far more impactful, including a jab that knocks McGhee back several steps. McGhee strides forward to put a knee on the chin, and Yan strings together punches up top that lead to body shots in an effective combination. The jab of Yan is tripled before he fires off power punches, and his combinations are in full effect, like a knee into a right hand and then a low kick. McGhee tags the former champ with a clean one-two, and Yan takes a second and then comes back firing. McGhee tries a wheel kick, but Yan is much too close and reaches him with his fists when McGhee turns. The horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
Supporting chants for Yan echo through the Etihad Arena, and he knows it and is excited by it. Rushing out of his corner to engage in the final frame, he gets in front of McGhee and is about to start banging. McGhee backs him away with low kicks and jabs, including one where he nearly kicks the Russian’s leg out, but Yan recovers and stands him up with a powerful left hand on the temple. Yan lets McGhee duck down so he can time uppercuts on him, and he shucks McGhee aside on a second attempt to elbow him with impunity. Yan checks a kick and rattles off a combination to the body, with McGhee rebounding off the cage wall to recover. Yan lands a low kick, and then checks one coming back. McGhee’s flying knee fails, as Yan watches it miss him, and Yan counters with a double-leg entry. McGhee turns, so Yan grips him from behind and knees him in the back of the thigh. Yan imposes his weight on McGhee from behind, and Movahedi asks for them for more than holding on.
Movahedi calls for the bantamweights to do more a second time, and Yan answers his call by kneeing McGhee repeatedly to the thigh and wrapped up around the guard to the head. Yan wrenches McGhee down to the floor, and McGee muscles his way to his feet and still has Yan’s hands clasped around his waist. Yan grinds and beats on the thighs of his foe, with the action less-than-thrilling but effective in peeling time off the clock. McGhee turns to put his back against the fencing, and Yan is warned for striking to the back of his head when McGhee tries to take the fight down. They split up, and Yan boots him in the face with his shin. The patented Yan trip results in him hurling McGhee to the mat, and he isolates an arm to grip a kimura. McGhee explodes to his knees and then to the wall, leaning on it as the match concludes. The two men are fired up and hug it out after 15 minutes of combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Marcus McGhee via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his phenomenal striking, underrated wrestling, and experience. He notes Marcus McGhee is powerful and well-rounded but had his legs chewed up in his last fight, and Yan has great kicks. He feels Yan's body of work and youth give him the edge, though he calls the fight a potential trap.

"The pick is going to be Poder, but this fight feels like a trap. And Marcus absolutely has the ability to play spoiler here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan, calling the matchup a huge step down for Yan. He notes Yan has beaten top competition while McGhee's wins are over unranked fighters. He believes Yan's striking and experience will be too much, and predicts a decision win.

decision
"I have to give Pota Yan here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor acknowledges McGhee's potential if he pressures Yan, but notes McGhee's tentativeness in the Martinez fight and his tendency to start slow. He believes Yan's counter-punching and ability to fight off the back foot will be too much, especially over three rounds. He also highlights Yan's takedown threat as a factor.

"I have to think Piotr Jan is just in a better position to win this."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Yan has issues in three-round fights due to his slow start, but he should turn the tide around the midpoint of the second round and pull away in deep water. The host would think twice about paying the chalk on Yan because of his slow starting nature.

Yan by decision, caution on betting
"I'm going to go Yan by decision, but I would think twice about paying that chalk on him considering his slow starting nature."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, noting the five-round fight favors Yan's experience and cardio. He acknowledges Marcus McGhee's skills but believes Yan is a different level, citing Yan's wins over Aldo and others. He predicts Yan loses the first round but wins the second and third, possibly with a 10-8 third round or a finish, resulting in a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to say that Yan gets this one done. Tricky first round for him that's close and competitive, but he loses the first round. ... Second and third round, he picks up the pressure, beats up on Marcus McGee."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that McGhee's best path is to pressure Yan early, but his recent fight against Martinez showed he can be hesitant. He believes Yan's combination punching and experience will prevail, and that McGhee's handsy defense will leave openings for Yan's counters.

"Yeah, I agree."
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 121 of 193 62% 190 of 263 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:21
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 53 of 119 44% 53 of 119 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 6 of 6 100% 42 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:21
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:58
2 Petr Yan 0 32 of 49 65% 32 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 21 of 36 58% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 13 of 25 52% 13 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
4 Petr Yan 0 25 of 40 62% 50 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
5 Petr Yan 0 37 of 62 59% 38 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Deiveson Figueiredo 0 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 121 of 193 62% 78 of 142 18 of 21 25 of 30 103 of 172 13 of 15 5 of 6
Deiveson Figueiredo 53 of 119 44% 23 of 75 24 of 36 6 of 8 49 of 112 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 4
Deiveson Figueiredo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 32 of 49 65% 12 of 26 6 of 6 14 of 17 31 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Deiveson Figueiredo 10 of 30 33% 6 of 21 3 of 7 1 of 2 10 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 21 of 36 58% 16 of 28 1 of 3 4 of 5 18 of 32 2 of 2 1 of 2
Deiveson Figueiredo 13 of 25 52% 4 of 15 6 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 25 of 40 62% 19 of 33 5 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 35 4 of 5 0 of 0
Deiveson Figueiredo 14 of 30 46% 4 of 15 8 of 12 2 of 3 12 of 26 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 37 of 62 59% 26 of 50 6 of 7 5 of 5 32 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0
Deiveson Figueiredo 15 of 33 45% 9 of 24 6 of 9 0 of 0 13 of 31 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Petr Yan vs. Deiveson Figueiredo

Round 1
A big one at 135 pounds wraps up this fight card, with a possible title challenger emerging depending on the result. Former beltholder Yan (17-5, 9-4 UFC) has struggled as of late but did right the ship in March with a decision over Yadong Song. On the other side of the cage stands ex-flyweight kingpin Figueiredo (24-3-1, 13-3-1 UFC), whose run at the new division has gone swimmingly thus far with three wins in three appearances. Whether he makes it four in the next 25 minutes or less, referee Mike Beltran and his outstanding moustache will be here for it every step of the way. As he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions, the combatants eagerly bump their fists together. Yan starts aggressively, backing the Brazilian off early. Figueiredo strikes first with a body kick and shoots for a takedown, and Yan defends the double but falls victim to an inside trip takedown. Figueiredo lands in the guard, with Yan smacking him off his back. Yan tries to elevate and sweep his opponent, and Figueiredo hangs on from above when Yan turns to his knees. Figueiredo looks to keep Yan grounded, staying heavy on Yan’s back and following Yan when he rolls. Yan elbows from behind, bopping Figueiredo on the nose a few times as the bantamweights keep twisting and turning. Yan uses elbows to the thigh to break up a partial leg grip around him, and this results in Figueiredo getting both hooks in and taking the back. Figueiredo looks for a body triangle, and Yan maintains a two-on-one wrist lock so he can explode and twist around to claim top position. Yan gets off a single elbow before Figueiredo grips hold of him with all of his might, and Yan drags him to put his neck on the corner of the fence and the floor. Yan covers the Brazilian’s mouth when not driving his elbow into his face, and he postures up every so often to land a strike. Yan drills his man with a solid right hammerfist and an elbow with his other arm, forcing Figueiredo to turn to his side in an escape attempt. Figueiredo bucks and kicks, but Yan stays above him scoring a solid right hand. As Figueiredo leaps back to his feet, Yan knees him hard, and he kicks the front leg while Figueiredo circles away to end the round. 10-9 Yan.

Round 2
The bantamweights re-engage after five minutes of largely grappling, with Yan setting up punches and a head kick with a low kick. Figueiredo walks through a stomping kick to his knee to fire off his own head kick, and Yan blocks it and blasts the front leg with his shin. Figueiredo sits down on a clubbing right hand that sends Yan backpedaling, and it is one-and-done so Yan recovers without issue. Yan strikes again with a low kick, and he kicks high. Yan is warned for outstretched fingers, and he belts the Brazilian in the body with his foot. A level change from Figueiredo is easily thwarted, and Yan chops at his front leg when his foe backs off. Figueiredo absorbs a head kick, blocks a second and retaliates with one to the ribs. Yan steps in with a right hook, and he brings up a knee shield to defend a body kick. Figueiredo whizzes past his man to connect a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick and misses the mark. A second power right from Figueiredo wobbles Yan’s legs, and he spins with a back kick that pounds into the ribcage. Yan bounces off the wall and gets his bearings, with Figueiredo not committing to anything additional. Yan kicks the lead leg and then reaches out with a left hand, and Figueiredo trips and hits the floor but climbs up without concern. A jumping switch kick from Figueiredo bounces off the guard, and he lunges in with a right hand and checks a leg kick. Yan plants a left hand on the cheek, stuffs a takedown and does it again. Two clean punches from Yan make Figueiredo blink it out, and his fingers are pointed towards his opponent and draw another warning. They clash shins together with simultaneous kicks, and Figueiredo’s hooks get his foe’s attention. Yan pays him back with an elbow up close, and his kicks pepper “Daico” on the way out. Figueiredo wraps two hooks around the guard, and Yan keeps his fist outstretched to back Figueiredo off. Yan hits a clean trip and throw, and Figueiredo throws his legs up for a triangle as the bell sounds. 10-9 Figueiredo.

Round 3
The fighters are revved up and excited to get back to hitting one another in the face, so much so that Beltran has to back them off. When they start, it takes nearly 20 seconds before they strike. Yan jabs and kicks with his front leg, and Figueiredo hammers the body with a left hand. Yan chips at the front leg, backing away to block a body kick. Both fighters switch stances time and again directly in front of one another, and Figueiredo kicks his way into a tackling double-leg takedown. Yan’s scramble allows him to grab hold of one leg, and he is able to escape before long. Yan slams home a low kick, and he connects with a short but explosive uppercut that stuns and sends Figueiredo falling to his back. Yan climbs into the guard in hopes of finishing the job, but “Deus da Guerra” is hanging tight to protect himself from further damage. Figueiredo wall-walks and shoves Yan away, and Yan walks him down and boots him in the front leg. Figueiredo switches stances immediately, and Yan kicks him in the ribs but eats a right hand up top for his handiwork. The two crash together, and the impact sounds like they clacked heads. Figueiredo breaks out of the clinch and throws a haymaker from downtown, one that does not hit the broad side of a barn. Figueiredo hunts for a step-in trip, and he hand-fights Yan who is trying to box his way in. Figueiredo connects with a body kick, and he reaches out with a right hand as Yan shakes it off. Yan times a head kick, and Figueiredo boots him in the chest right back. Figueiredo splits the guard with a one-two, and a body shot makes Yan take a second to think about things. Figueiredo closes in on him and digs several uppercuts up the middle, and he appears to find a strike that is doing some serious damage. A few more uppercuts ring Figueiredo’s bell, and Yan leaps in the air to knee Figueiredo on the chin. Figueiredo gets his mouthpiece knocked out, and Beltran has him replace it. When Figueiredo puts the gumshield back in, he looses one final combination of strikes that lead him to the horn. 10-9 Yan.

Round 4
It is championship round time, and both men still appear to have a full head of steam. Figueiredo rushes out of his corner to engage, lobbing kicks from both legs. Yan attempts a trip and throw, and he disrupts Figueiredo’s footwork to make him hit the floor. Figueiredo’s mad scramble gets him upright in seconds, and they resume from striking range. They hand-fight until Figueiredo kicks his man in the ribs. Figueiredo shoots for a double, and he leverages Yan to the wall when the first try fails. Figueiredo tries with a single, lifting Yan’s leg but not going anywhere. Yan pushes him away, and they reset. Yan times a powerful uppercut that knocks Figueiredo’s mouthpiece out, and he follows it with a head kick that is just blocked in time. Beltran waits until he has an opening to give the Brazilian back his mouthpiece, and he replaces it. Yan slaps Figueiredo in the face with his toes, and he slides back when Figueiredo bears down on him. The boxing of Yan allows him to slip a huge punch and uppercut Figueiredo cleanly, and when they are in close range, Figueiredo claims about glove grabs. Figueiredo dips down and fires off a body shot, and two punches go up top. Yan jabs and steps in with an elbow, and a piece of his tape on his thumb comes off. Figueiredo blasts the body with a ferocious left hand, and he ducks a looping strike for a takedown shot. Yan stifles the effort and just misses with a booming head kick, but he does connect with uppercuts and a flying knee when the two let loose. Figueiredo tries his own uppercut, and he blocks a head kick and comes over the top with a left. Figueiredo strides forward to unleash a right hand, and Yan goes flying. When Yan gets up, Figueiredo hurts his man in the body with follow-up strikes, and Yan steels himself and unloads a series of uppercuts until time expires. 10-9 Yan.

Round 5
Five minutes left to work, and the fighters touch ‘em up one last time. Yan hand-fights on his way into attack, and Figueiredo catches him with an uppercut. Yan tries to escape, but one left hand to the body gets his attention again. Yan attempts a big knee when Figueiredo is ducking, and it grazes off the red line on Figueiredo’s dome. Figueiredo gets clinched, eats a knee and an uppercut without landing anything before getting shoved back. Yan goes into boxer mode, pinning his punches on Figueiredo’s chin again and again. Figueiredo throws back with bad intentions, shaking his foe up with an elbow and a few mighty left hands. Figueiredo digs a kick to the body, and he watches as body kick soar past him. Figueiredo shoots, Yan sprawls and they reset. Yan steps in with a left hand, slides away and does not get tagged on the counter. Yan rifles off a left hand, and Figueiredo decides to pay him back with a clubbing right hook. Yan bounces off the fencing and absorbs a flush body shot, and he just misses with a huge uppercut. Yan spins with an elbow, and Figueiredo grins and tells him good work. Figueiredo points to the ground in what has been a gesture repeated frequently today, and Yan shrugs it off and times another spinning strike. Yan scores an elbow, and Figueiredo drives an elbow into the torso. Another elbow forces Figueiredo to back off, if only for a second, and Yan smacks him cleanly with a flying switch kick. Figueiredo boots him in the head with a question-mark kick, and he hurts the Russian with two huge right hands. Figueiredo rushes forward to attack, and both fighters duck down and crash together. Figueiredo goes hind quarters-over-tea kettle and falls off the back, and he jumps back up and walks Yan down, throwing everything he has at his opponent. Yan looks for a knee up the middle, and he belts the Brazilian’s body with his shin. Figueiredo swings hard, and he stops a takedown. Yan scores with one more left hand, and this terrific 25-minute engagement comes to a close. A few rounds were close, but one fighter appeared to outwork the other over the course of their “Fight of the Night”-worthy battle. Both men climb to the top of the cage to celebrate their handiwork, hugging it out and taking time to enjoy the crowd showering them with love. 10-9 Yan (49-46 Yan).
The thriller in the books, the victorious Yan is joined in the cage by his son, who it appears may be watching his father fight live for the very first time. Like the winner of the co-main event, Yan calls for another title shot, although he is two fights removed from the championship bout and not one like the strawweight from earlier. Even in defeat, Figueiredo is all smiles, appreciating Yan's handiwork and generally a happy camper. With that, UFC Macau is in the books, and there is no UFC next week as it is Thanksgiving week in America. Instead, PFL runs its championship event on Friday, which contains a remarkable 10 title fights. We will be there for each and every one, and we hope you are too.

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Deiveson Figueiredo via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He acknowledges Figueiredo's improved wrestling and cardio at bantamweight but believes Yan's five-round experience and size advantage will be key. He admits a weird feeling about Figueiredo and may not bet.

"I am going to pick Jan because I think he's just going to be the better Striker he should be the bigger guy here and his takedown defense is very good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision. He thinks it's a bad matchup for Figueiredo, who is older (36), smaller, and a low-volume striker relying on power that likely won't hurt Yan. Yan is younger, has better cardio and volume, and is durable. Brady doesn't believe Figueiredo has the wrestling to take Yan down, as even Merab was unsuccessful. He expects Yan to outwork Figueiredo over five rounds, possibly with a late finish.

"I think this fight primarily does play out on the feet Yan's younger bigger better cardio better volume he's durable um I think it's a yawn win here and a yaan win probably by decision maybe a late finish but …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan because of his superior cardio and volume striking over five rounds. He notes Figueiredo is a power puncher with a limited gas tank who relies on early knockdowns and takedowns, but Yan's takedown defense and endless motor will allow him to outwork Figueiredo in the later rounds. He expects Yan to win by decision and sees a live betting opportunity if Yan starts slow.

Yan by decision
"I got yaan by decision I got the over on this fight going to be a good fight boy let me tell you but uh I'm gonna go with Peter Jan to get the job done"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Yan because Figueiredo's cautious, low-output style and declining speed play into Yan's strengths. He notes that Yan's confidence may be shaken but Figueiredo won't pressure him early like Merab did. Connor also highlights that Figueiredo's gas tank is worse and he may be content to lose a quiet decision, which suits Yan's late-round surge.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I got a big Yan, but I like the fight. I think it's the right time to have this fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Vreeland believes Petr Yan will win despite being a slow starter. He expects Figueiredo to have early success with calf kicks and submission attempts, but as Yan makes his reads and gets his timing down, he will take over. Vreeland notes Yan's superior boxing and timing-based takedowns, and thinks Yan can either finish late or win a decision. He is confident Yan dictates the pace and pulls away.

late finish or decision
"I'm going to go Peter uh either late finish or decision but I expect this to be an incredible fight between two Legends"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

James picks Petr Yan to win but is hesitant due to the -300 price tag, which he considers too wide. He acknowledges Yan's superior striking volume and five-round experience, but notes Figueiredo's one-punch power and athleticism could cause an upset. He believes the fight is likely a 48-47 decision for Yan, but may take a small position on Figueiredo based on value.

"I'll pick pet y but I think davidon figur has a very good chance to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Figueiredo would be a live dog in a three-round fight but cannot maintain the pace over five rounds. He highlights Yan's endless gas tank and the fact that Figueiredo cannot replicate Merab's takedown volume. Paul thinks Yan wins on volume and suggests a live bet if Yan starts slow, but warns the line may move quickly.

"I think Yan wins on volume I think it's a much better live bet um just wait wait out the first few rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Deiveson Figueiredo, emphasizing the five-round advantage. He argues Figueiredo is explosive early but fades, while Yan's cardio and boxing improve as the fight goes on. He predicts Yan will weather early storms, then take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground and pound, finishing Figueiredo in round four or five. He compares it to Yan's fight against Jose Aldo. He notes Figueiredo's wins over Cody Garbrandt, Rob Font, and Marlon Vera but believes Yan's boxing is crisper than Moreno's.

finishes in round four or five by TKO (ground and pound)
"I'm going to say that Peter Yan finishes Davison figuro in round four or five to ground and pound"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, arguing that Yan's process-oriented fighting style, which builds through rounds, will overcome Figueiredo's declining speed and output. He notes that Figueiredo has lost some speed and relies on strength and caution, but Yan's ability to adapt and pressure late in fights gives him the edge. Zane also mentions that Yan's confidence issues stem from the Merab fight, but Figueiredo's style won't exploit that as effectively.

Yan opened at -235, now -308; Figueiredo opened +202, now +258. Zane says 'you can't get too wide on Figueiredo' and 'can't trust Yan too much right now.'
"My gut is telling me very strongly to pick Petr Yan in this fight. I think this is going to be a good mojo recovery fight for him."
WIN vs Song Yadong
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 0 99 of 183 54% 129 of 217 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:47
Song Yadong 0 86 of 172 50% 104 of 192 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 22 of 35 62% 23 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Song Yadong 0 20 of 37 54% 22 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:49
2 Petr Yan 0 41 of 77 53% 61 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Song Yadong 0 31 of 66 46% 40 of 75 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Petr Yan 0 36 of 71 50% 45 of 83 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Song Yadong 0 35 of 69 50% 42 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 99 of 183 54% 68 of 142 22 of 31 9 of 10 86 of 170 4 of 4 9 of 9
Song Yadong 86 of 172 50% 71 of 147 9 of 15 6 of 10 79 of 164 5 of 6 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 22 of 35 62% 9 of 19 6 of 8 7 of 8 22 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Song Yadong 20 of 37 54% 15 of 30 1 of 2 4 of 5 17 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Petr Yan 41 of 77 53% 31 of 62 10 of 15 0 of 0 35 of 71 1 of 1 5 of 5
Song Yadong 31 of 66 46% 26 of 56 4 of 7 1 of 3 28 of 63 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 36 of 71 50% 28 of 61 6 of 8 2 of 2 29 of 64 3 of 3 4 of 4
Song Yadong 35 of 69 50% 30 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 34 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Yadong Song vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-115), Song (-105)

Round 1
His back against the wall, former bantamweight champ Yan (16-5, 8-4 UFC) has lost four of his last five after charging into the UFC to win seven straight. On the other side of the cage, Team Alpha Male’s Song (21-7-1, 1 NC; 10-2-1 UFC) has plenty of momentum on his side, winner of four of five to get himself a ranking next to his name. While not as big as the main event, there will be waves made from this bantamweight bout. It begins with referee Keith Peterson checking the fighters in, and they clap hands first. There will be no nonsense going forward. Song leads off with a low kick, and Yan throws one back only to get countered with a check left hook. Song comes up short with a low kick, and he fakes with a takedown that makes Yan oversell to try to stop it. Yan comes out firing with an overhand right, and Song eats it like a bowl of hot and numbing beef. Song wings a left hand that gets Yan’s attention, and he tries to launch it again but comes up just short. They engage in a stalemate when standing in front of one another, and Song hops out of the way and leaps forward with a left hand. Song doubles up on a jab and whips a right hand over the top, and Yan bends him over with a body shot. Song attacks with a combination, and Yan defends the worst of the blows and is ready to trade back, only to find his enemy is not to be found. Song counters a leg kick with a huge overhand right, and they both dip down at the same time but do not engage. Song tags him with a left hook, and he walks through a punch to land a sharp jab of his own. They both duck down at the same time again, and they nearly bounce heads. Song catches a leg kick and bangs his right hand into the temple, sending Yan down to the mat. Song follow him and tries to keep him down, but Yan scrambles wildly to work his way up to his feet. Yan tries to roll through to nearly escape and find himself in better position, but Song hangs on to stay on Yan from behind. Song lands a few right hands until Yan fights to his feet with 30 seconds to spare. Yan sneaks in a right hand and ducks a massive overhand right, and he bites on a faked takedown and awkwardly attacks his own. The round ends before a takedown is landed on either side.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
They bump fists before getting started, and Song says hello with a body kick. Yan races ahead, only to walk partially into an elbow. Song swings a left hook and shoots, and when Yan stands him up, Song elects to score several right hands before shoving the Russian to the wall. Song nails his man with an elbow, and Yan breaks off and ducks into an uppercut when trying to defend a takedown. Song eats an uppercut when shooting, and when he tries again, he takes another uppercut to the same spot. Yan sits down on his punches when Song walks him down, and he looks to defend a takedown and gets grabbed from behind. Song sticks out several jabs when breaking free, and he ducks square into an uppercut. Peterson calls time to remove some tape from Yan’s glove, and they cut it and move on. Yan restarts and aims two body shots, and he stops a takedown by tackling Song over. Song shrugs at him, and he takes a right hand for his effort. Song jabs, and he snatches up a single and lifts it in the air. Yan miraculously keeps his balance and drags his leg back, and he snaps out multiple jabs. The crowd starts chanting “let’s go Petr” as if the Miami fans had forgotten he is Russian, and Song takes energy from it and surges ahead. Yan beats him to the punch and aims shots to the body, and Song throws hands too hard and takes a clean uppercut. Yan digs a right to the body and leans back to avoid the big strike from his opponent, and he crashes forward to hit a clean takedown and plant Song on his back. Yan works the body and head as soon as they hit the ground, and he cuts Song open with elbows. The round ends as blood leans from above Song’s left eyebrow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the center of the Octagon, and Yan swings a huge right hand that Song barely ducks. Song counters with a spinning kick that glances off the guard, and he gets his jab going. Yan aims an uppercut and shoots down for the ankle, and he spins around and works to his feet when he does not get Song down. Yan stings his opponent with a right and spins with a back kick, and Song doubles up on a jab and gets smacked in the head with a spinning wheel kick. Song is tough as nail, and he rushes forward to trade hands and surprises Yan with a right hand. Song goes after a single, and Yan bounces off and throws hard at his opponent. Song gets knocked to his hands, and he rebounds and eats a body shot in the midst of a combination. Yan aims a one-two to the body, and he shoulder rolls to avoid the counter. Song desperately pursues a takedown, and Yan crawls away. Song connects a left on the side of the head, and he gather his thoughts and spins with a back fist. Blood leaks down both of Song’s eyes, with cuts all over, and he completely ignores it so he can trade with his opponent. Yan beans him with a spinning back fist, and Song stands right in front of him and scores a heavy right hand back. Song takes a left hand on the jaw and gets shoved back to the fence, and he elbows Song and pursues a double. Yan turns the corner and plants Song on his seat with a minute to spare, and he sits in half guard and starts shellacking Song with elbows and punches. Yan gets dragged back to guard while striking, and he flows over to the side and elbows Song once for good measure. Song rolls to his stomach, and Yan holds him down with a brabo choke until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yan (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Petr Yan def. Yadong Song via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, feeling a changing of the guard. He notes Song hits hard, is fast, and can make the fight ugly, which is how you beat Yan. However, he acknowledges Yan is still very good and this is a tough test. He won't bet on it because it's too close.

Jacob has a good size bet on this fight with good odds (premium members can check).
"song is going to be the pick but for me this is too close of a fight too good of a fight I'm not going to bet on it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by decision, but has low confidence. He notes that Yan has lost four of his last five, but those losses were to top competition. He believes Yan's boxing and volume will edge out Song, who has more power but is less proven. He thinks the fight is razor thin and could go either way.

win by decision
"I'm going to take Pon here I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Cody is concerned about Yan's slow starts and poor decision-making in recent fights. He thinks Song's takedown defense, volume, and durability make him a live underdog, especially in a three-round fight where Yan's slow starts could cost him.

"it's 50-50 fight I think s Yong is like the slight Underdog I would favor with the slight Underdog"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel picks Yan to get back in the win column, but it's a lean. He believes Yan is not washed and has looked good in recent losses to elite competition. He notes Yan's takedown ability and diverse striking, but warns that Song is a massive bantamweight with heavy hands and can crack in the pocket. Daniel expects a competitive three-round war and thinks Yan's experience and technique will prevail, but acknowledges Song could knock him out.

"I'm actually G to go poo Yan here to get back in the win column but I expect this to be a very competitive um Dynamic three round bantamweight War"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Vreeland also picks Song Yadong, emphasizing how Petr Yan has been losing. He notes that Yan's losses are to top competition but points to the Merab Dvalishvili fight where Yan was worn down by pace and wrestling. Vreeland believes Song's wrestling has improved and that he can take the first round against a slow-starting Yan. He argues that in a three-round fight, Song only needs to win the third round as Yan fades. Vreeland highlights Song's youth and upward trajectory as key factors.

"I'm with you I'm taking s you dong and I think the big piece for me too is the way that we're seeing Pon lose because obviously we can excuse losses to the types of guys he's losing to right …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Jeff Fox picks Song Yadong at even money, citing Petr Yan's three-fight losing streak and mental state concerns. He notes Song's continued improvement and youth, and believes Yan's slow starts in three-round fights are a liability. Fox thinks Song's wrestling has improved, as shown against Ricky Simon, and that he can tire Yan out by pushing the pace. He concludes that Yan refuses to win the first round, making him vulnerable.

"I can't trust P Yan at this point despite he's only lost to the top of the heap in the division but the fact is he is losing a lot consistently who knows where his mental state is at this …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Yan is on a three-fight losing streak and has a low-output style that often leaves him behind on the scorecards early. Song Yadong has improved his takedown defense and mixes his striking with grappling well. He is likely to be the more aggressive fighter, using kicks and volume to win rounds. Yan has power and can turn a fight with one shot, but his tendency to give up early rounds is a concern. I lean Song Yadong by decision, but this is not a lock.

"I see this fight in favor of song considering that he likely will be the more aggressive of the two uh be able to stay busy enough with his kicks"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul gives Yan a pass for some recent losses, noting he has fought the best in the division. He believes Yan's experience and multiple paths to victory (striking, wrestling) will be enough to beat Song, who hasn't proven himself against top-tier competition.

"I'm gonna side with Peter Yan I'm gonna say he makes the adjustments to you know not take round one off and uh and gets the job done here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru switched from Song Yadong to Petr Yan after rewatching Song's fight with Chris Gutierrez. He argues Yan's compact style and catch-and-shoot counters will neutralize Song's power. He notes Song couldn't finish Gutierrez or Cory Sandhagen, and Yan's durability and boxing should win a striking match. He worries about Yan's three-fight losing streak but believes the aura is still there.

"I'm going to go Peter yam"
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 75 of 143 52% 87 of 155 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:50
Petr Yan 0 147 of 338 43% 202 of 401 11 of 49 22% 0 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 22 of 62 35% 35 of 81 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:10
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Petr Yan 0 35 of 80 43% 41 of 86 3 of 7 42% 0 0 0:59
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 8 of 27 29% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Petr Yan 0 15 of 46 32% 22 of 53 1 of 14 7% 0 0 1:34
4 Merab Dvalishvili 0 21 of 31 67% 21 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
Petr Yan 0 38 of 75 50% 51 of 88 1 of 8 12% 0 0 1:01
5 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Petr Yan 0 37 of 75 49% 53 of 93 5 of 12 41% 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 75 of 143 52% 41 of 105 16 of 19 18 of 19 66 of 132 9 of 11 0 of 0
Petr Yan 147 of 338 43% 91 of 260 35 of 52 21 of 26 129 of 312 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 13 of 25 52% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 22 of 62 35% 12 of 48 6 of 9 4 of 5 15 of 54 7 of 8 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 18 of 35 51% 6 of 21 8 of 10 4 of 4 16 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 35 of 80 43% 19 of 59 8 of 11 8 of 10 32 of 75 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 8 of 27 29% 5 of 23 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 15 of 46 32% 10 of 37 5 of 8 0 of 1 13 of 41 2 of 5 0 of 0
4 Merab Dvalishvili 21 of 31 67% 15 of 25 4 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Petr Yan 38 of 75 50% 24 of 55 10 of 15 4 of 5 36 of 72 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 11 of 21 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Petr Yan 37 of 75 49% 26 of 61 6 of 9 5 of 5 33 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan despite acknowledging Merab's relentless wrestling. He believes Yan is the better fighter and will make Merab pay on his entries, using leg kicks and potentially his own takedowns. He compares Yan's situation to Figueiredo's potential downward spiral but notes that many think Yan beat O'Malley and Sterling. He goes with his brain over his gut.

"I am going to go with the brain here pyoto's gonna be the pick... I think he'll spin off I think he's gonna light up marab's legs he may shoot his own takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan confidently, calling it a good matchup for him. He highlights Yan's incredible takedown defense and get-up game, and notes Dvalishvili has no control grappling—he can take down but not control. Brady expects Yan to stuff takedowns easier as the fight goes on and finish Dvalishvili with a fourth-round TKO, doing all the damage while Dvalishvili struggles to hold him down.

win by TKO in round 4
"I like yawn a lot I like yawn to finish this fight I'm gonna say fourth round TKO for Pierre on"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Petr Yan but with hesitation due to the -250 price and Yan's recent performances, especially the close fight with Sean O'Malley. He notes Yan's slow starts and Dvalishvili's fast start, but believes Yan's volume, body attack, and ability to get back up will break Dvalishvili. He recommends live betting after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I really don't like the money line on this to be honest but I do have Peter yawn winning fight and I think you're going to be able to probably live at this after the first and feel a lot …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor picks Petr Yan, emphasizing Yan's superior striking technique, timing, and power. He notes that Yan's left hook is a key weapon against Dvalishvili, who is vulnerable to that punch due to overcommitting. Connor acknowledges Dvalishvili's relentless pressure and cardio but believes Yan's counterpunching and ability to pick his shots will prevail. He also points out that Yan's takedown defense and scrambling are solid enough to avoid being controlled.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think he's going to win. Yeah, he's going to, I have to expect that he's just going to be able to see the moments when Dvalishvili really actually sits down and plants his feet. And when he does see …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I believe Petr Yan's superior technical striking and defensive wrestling will be the difference. Merab's takedown-heavy style relies on volume, but Yan's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet should neutralize that. Yan's power and leg kicks will slow Merab's explosiveness, leading to a knockout within three rounds. Merab may have moments, but Yan's damage output will outweigh the control time.

Yan by KO round 3
"I think he knocks out murab de valasfili within three rounds maybe even the fourth but I think he knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Petr Yan to win, noting Yan's slow starts but superior skill set and ability to calculate and adjust. He mentions Yan's takedown defense and cardio as key factors, and suggests live betting after the first round when Yan's price may improve. He is hesitant about the -250 line but confident Yan wins.

sprinkled Yan round 4 at +2200 and Yan round 5 at +3300; suggests live betting after first round
"I am going to side with Peter yawn to get back on track minus 250 isn't doing it for me I did sprinkle yawn round four at 20 plus 2200 and yawn round five at plus 3 300."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan, believing he is unfinishable and has improved his grappling. He notes that Merab is open on the feet and Yan will capitalize with elbows and shots off the break. He predicts Yan will win by decision or late-round TKO, as Merab's pace may slow and Yan's power will take over. He also mentions referees being anti-clinch, which may hinder Merab's game.

by decision or late rounds TKO
"I think Jan's got this one in the bag I do I was watching marab's fight with Marla Mirage I know it's Marla Mirage and he's dangerous and he is going to drop people early and that's just how it …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Petr Yan, citing Yan's excellent counterpunching and left hook as key advantages. He notes that Dvalishvili is vulnerable to left hooks, as seen in fights against Marlon Moraes and Cody Stamann. Zane also highlights Yan's solid takedown defense and scrambling, which should prevent Dvalishvili from replicating Aljamain Sterling's back-taking game. He expects Yan to time Dvalishvili's entries and land cleaner shots.

Odds mentioned: Yan opened -175, now -265; Dvalishvili opened +150, now +210.
"I think this is a pretty good matchup for him because Marab can do a lot of Aljo type things. ... The difference is, is that Aljamaine Sterling is possibly the best back taker in the sport. ... Marab is …"
LOSS vs Sean O'Malley
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean O'Malley 0 58 of 96 60% 97 of 139 6 of 13 46% 0 0 5:44
Petr Yan 0 84 of 163 51% 91 of 171 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean O'Malley 0 19 of 31 61% 28 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:10
Petr Yan 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Sean O'Malley 0 24 of 39 61% 45 of 62 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:42
Petr Yan 0 21 of 37 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sean O'Malley 0 15 of 26 57% 24 of 36 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:52
Petr Yan 0 40 of 71 56% 46 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean O'Malley 58 of 96 60% 24 of 57 13 of 18 21 of 21 47 of 81 5 of 6 6 of 9
Petr Yan 84 of 163 51% 63 of 132 6 of 14 15 of 17 80 of 158 4 of 4 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean O'Malley 19 of 31 61% 5 of 15 3 of 5 11 of 11 17 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 23 of 55 41% 13 of 37 3 of 9 7 of 9 23 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean O'Malley 24 of 39 61% 12 of 25 7 of 9 5 of 5 17 of 29 2 of 3 5 of 7
Petr Yan 21 of 37 56% 17 of 32 1 of 2 3 of 3 21 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Sean O'Malley 15 of 26 57% 7 of 17 3 of 4 5 of 5 13 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Petr Yan 40 of 71 56% 33 of 63 2 of 3 5 of 5 36 of 67 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean O'Malley vs. Petr Yan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Yan (-265), O’Malley (+225)

Round 1
Yan and O’Malley launch into action at the prompting of referee Jason Herzog. Yan is in orthodox stance; O’Mally southpaw. Yan stalks forward as O’Malley slides around the outside of the cage. Yan switches stances and flicks out his right jab, then switches back. Herzog shouts a warning to O’Malley to watch his extended fingers. Yan lands a right low kick and eats a hard right hand counter. O’Malley connects with a right low kick. Halfway through the round, Yan changes levels for a double-leg near the fence. O’Malley backs into the cage, trying to keep the Russian from taking his back. Yan gives up on the takedown and they return to the center. Yan lands a series of three left hands upstairs, then drops for another takedown. This time, he hoists the taller man and dumps him to the canvas. With a minute left, Yan is in O’Malley’s guard. O’Malley goes to stand and eats some punches on the way up, but they return to their feet. O’Malley shoots a takedown at the 10-second clapper, briefly takes Yan’s back in the ensuing scramble, but they separate before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 2
Yan lands an outside low kick, then one to the inside of O’Malley’s lead leg. O’Malley comes back with a huge uppercut that has Yan hurt badly. Yan staggers away as O’Malley gives chase, landing more punches. Yan turns the tables with a massive punch of his own and now O’Malley is rocked. Yan ducks under and drags O’Malley to the mat. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard as O’Malley squirms and looks to escape. O’Malley pops up and Yan drives him to the fence. O’Malley grounds himself with a hand on the canvas to forestall knees to the head. They separate and a moment later, Yan pushes O’Malley back to the floor with a nice inside trip. O’Malley pops right back up. Under two minutes to go and Yan is matching O’Malley down. O’Malley pushes him back with a kick up the middle, and slips the counter punch. Yan flicks a high kick upstairs, then comes in behind it for a takedown. Yan is in O’Malley’s guard at the base of the fence with 45 seconds left in the round. Yan postures up and lands a couple of punches. The round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Yan

Round 3
Yan shoots for a takedown right away, but O’Malley defends well and stands him back up. O’Malley flicks out a couple of jabs. Yan lands a low kick. Yan swarms forward with hooks, then shoves O’Malley to the cage. O’Malley pushes him back off, and lands an intercepting knee that cuts Yan badly. Yan is bleeding right away. Yan comes up short with a pair of punches, then lands a one-two. O’Malley throws a high kick that glances. Yan shoots a fast takedown from way outside, but drives O’Malley to the fence, and gets him to the ground. Yan takes O’Malley’s back as they stand. O’Malley escapes and they separate. There’s 90 seconds left as they reset in the middle. O’Malley lands a pair of jabs to Yan’s bloodied right eye. Yan drags O’Malley to the ground late in the round, and is landing punches from guard at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Yan (30-27 Yan)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 O’Malley (29-28 Yan)

The Official Result
Sean O’Malley def. Petr Yan via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan confidently, calling him a phenomenal striker with fantastic takedown defense and surprising takedown offense. He notes Yan's power, accuracy, and grappling, and believes O'Malley will have trouble finding a rhythm. He acknowledges Yan's tendency to take the first round off but still expects a one-sided fight.

"pyoto's the pick I am very very confident that this is going to be a one-sided fight there are levels to this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Yan to win by TKO in the second round. He notes Yan's power (nearly 10 knockdowns in the UFC) and ability to mix in takedowns. O'Malley has faced mostly strikers and hasn't been tested on the ground; Yan can pressure him and potentially finish on top. He believes Yan's experience against elite strikers like Aldo and Sandhagen gives him a clear edge.

second round TKO
"I actually think Peter yon finishes O'Malley I think he finished his second round at TKO gets on top and eventually finishes O'Malley in that second or third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody is confident in Yan, noting that Yan is an underrated wrestler who can take O'Malley down and control him. He points out O'Malley's weaknesses against pressure and wrestlers, referencing the Marlon Vera fight. Cody believes Yan's experience and ability to figure out opponents as the fight goes on will be key. He thinks Yan can win by decision or inside the distance, and that O'Malley's popularity is inflating his odds.

Yan by submission round 1-2-3 (small bet at 100-1 each)
"I gotta go with Peter Young to get the job done does he win by decision or does he win inside the distance I'm leaning towards inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Connor is confident Yan will win, arguing that Yan's layered striking and ability to adapt will overwhelm O'Malley. He notes that O'Malley's offense is based on feints and theoretical threats, while Yan has multiple modes of attack and will take easy targets like leg kicks. He also points out that Yan can pressure O'Malley to the fence and take him down, as he did against Sandhagen.

"Logically, I have to pick Petr Yan. You would be insane to pick Sean O'Malley, honestly."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan to win, citing Yan's proven chin and ability to both give and take damage. He questions O'Malley's durability, noting that while O'Malley can strike well, it's unknown how he handles getting hit by a powerful puncher like Yan. Levi thinks Yan will pressure O'Malley and make him fight, and that Yan's experience against tough opponents gives him the edge. He also mentions that Yan may start slow but will win rounds as the fight progresses. Levi does not bet this fight but is confident in Yan.

"I think peota yen is going to get right in the face of Sean O'Malley he's going to make Sean O'Malley fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Yan has a slow-starting style but excels in championship rounds. He has wrestling upside that could exploit O'Malley's weakness on the ground. O'Malley may be competitive early with kicks, but Yan's takedowns and top control should secure rounds. Yan by decision at -110 is the pick, and if the line drops to -250, the moneyline becomes attractive.

Yan by decision at -110
"I'm going to go parody on by decision on minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul is confident in Yan, citing that Yan is the better fighter and that O'Malley's action is due to his brand. He worries about Yan giving up round one but thinks Yan will figure out O'Malley and win. Paul notes Yan's wrestling and takedowns as a path to victory, and mentions he took a small bet on Yan by submission at long odds. He believes Yan's experience and skill gap will show.

Yan by submission (small bet at 100-1 each round)
"Peter Yawn is the pick minus 265 I don't even think it's that bad I just worry that he gives up round one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan over Sean O'Malley by third-round TKO. He believes Yan's pressure, combinations, and ability to crowd O'Malley will be too much. He notes O'Malley's struggles against volume strikers and his tendency to spin, which Yan can exploit. He predicts O'Malley wins the first round but gets hurt in the second and finished in the third.

third round TKO
"I'm going to be going with pyotian over Sean O'Malley"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Zane picks Yan, emphasizing that Yan's pressure and ability to take easy targets will expose O'Malley's defensive flaws. He compares O'Malley to Darren Till, noting that both rely on a coiled-spring style that elite fighters eventually figure out. He believes Yan will force O'Malley into uncomfortable positions and break him down over time.

"I think Yan can just kind of run at Sean O'Malley and... he can essentially do exactly what he did to Cory Sandhagen and start even faster."
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 62 of 110 56% 91 of 143 2 of 22 9% 0 0 8:31
Petr Yan 0 63 of 103 61% 139 of 186 0 of 0 --- 0 0 5:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 19 of 40 47% 20 of 41 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 17 of 29 58% 42 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:50
Petr Yan 0 4 of 5 80% 21 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 6 of 13 46% 8 of 18 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:43
Petr Yan 0 8 of 15 53% 20 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
4 Aljamain Sterling 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Petr Yan 0 18 of 25 72% 48 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:51
5 Aljamain Sterling 0 12 of 18 66% 13 of 19 0 of 10 0% 0 0 0:58
Petr Yan 0 20 of 32 62% 37 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 62 of 110 56% 29 of 66 26 of 35 7 of 9 42 of 84 5 of 7 15 of 19
Petr Yan 63 of 103 61% 32 of 71 17 of 18 14 of 14 46 of 80 8 of 11 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 19 of 40 47% 5 of 22 11 of 14 3 of 4 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Petr Yan 13 of 26 50% 7 of 20 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Aljamain Sterling 17 of 29 58% 14 of 20 1 of 6 2 of 3 3 of 11 0 of 0 14 of 18
Petr Yan 4 of 5 80% 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Aljamain Sterling 6 of 13 46% 2 of 8 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Petr Yan 8 of 15 53% 2 of 9 2 of 2 4 of 4 7 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Aljamain Sterling 8 of 10 80% 2 of 4 6 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
Petr Yan 18 of 25 72% 10 of 17 4 of 4 4 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 5 5 of 7
5 Aljamain Sterling 12 of 18 66% 6 of 12 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 14 2 of 4 0 of 0
Petr Yan 20 of 32 62% 12 of 23 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Angelo picks Petr Yan by decision. He notes that Yan was winning the first fight and has better takedown defense (90%). He expects more of the same without the illegal knee, though he acknowledges Sterling's striking stats were close. He thinks Yan is safe for parlays.

Safe for parlay piece; suggests parlay with Volkanovski, Yan, and Chimaev.
"i gotta go with pyotr here he was landing the more powerful strikes in their first fight he was controlling the grappling ... i like pyotr to win but i do think it's by decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win by fourth-round knockout. He references the first fight where Yan was winning before the illegal knee, and expects a similar pattern: Yan starts slow, builds into the fight, and takes over in later rounds. Yan's wrestling, cardio, and finishing ability are superior. Sterling may have a better game plan but Yan is the better five-round fighter.

fourth round knockout
"i like yon to finish sterling i'm gonna say fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody picks Yan but is worried about a potential upset. He thinks Sterling needs to fight an ultra-conservative game plan of jabbing and kicking, using the big octagon to avoid Yan's power. Cody notes Sterling's neck surgery and layoff, while Yan is active and experienced. He considers a draw possible if Sterling wins three rounds but gets 10-8'd in one. Ultimately, he sticks with Yan but with reservations.

draw +2800 (mentioned as possibility)
"yeah yawn for me as well but man i'm worried about it and i got like a snagging suspicion that there could be a potential apple pie [ __ ] in play"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Petr Yan

Levi considers Yan the undisputed champion and a master of adjustments. He criticizes Sterling's durability and cardio, noting that Yan's pressure and reads will lead to a faster start this time. He expects Yan to crowd Sterling, negate his unorthodox kicks, and eventually finish by TKO. He has parlayed Yan with Ian Garry.

Parlay: Petr Yan + Ian Garry
"i think yan is the actual master of making these adjustments and i think that he's going to come out here i think he's got something for algo this time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

I think Yan gets stronger as the fight goes on and will find Sterling's chin. Sterling doesn't have the cardio to implement a 15-20 minute game plan. Yan will finish him late. I like Yan round 4/5/decision at -180 on FanDuel. The line is skewed due to public perception of Sterling.

Yan round 4/5/decision -180 (FanDuel)
"I like the Pyotr Yan side here... I think he finishes Aljamain Sterling at a certain point... Yan round four round five decision sitting at minus 180 I think that's a damn good line."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul picks Yan, citing Yan's ability to calculate opponents and improve as the fight goes on, plus having four rounds of data from the first fight. He notes Sterling's wrestling was only 1 of 12 on takedowns and that he couldn't keep the pace for five rounds. Paul thinks Yan starts better this time and wins, though he doesn't love the -490 price.

"i think yawn wins again i i'm not too scared i don't love the minus minus nearly minus 500 but uh yawn for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan by decision, expecting a close fight. He thinks Sterling will win the first two rounds but Yan will edge the later rounds, winning 48-47. He criticizes Sterling's reaction to the illegal knee and notes Yan's toughness and strength. He believes Sterling will be more reserved, giving Yan time to figure him out.

decision prediction, 48-47
"i'm going to go with pyotean by decision razor close 4847"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 149 of 270 55% 158 of 280 0 of 2 0% 1 1 1:09
Cory Sandhagen 0 169 of 445 37% 172 of 449 1 of 6 16% 0 1 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 85 43% 39 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Petr Yan 0 38 of 65 58% 40 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cory Sandhagen 0 45 of 113 39% 45 of 113 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 1 36 of 57 63% 41 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Cory Sandhagen 0 37 of 86 43% 37 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
4 Petr Yan 0 36 of 67 53% 38 of 69 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:24
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 83 30% 26 of 84 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:03
5 Petr Yan 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cory Sandhagen 0 25 of 78 32% 25 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 149 of 270 55% 100 of 217 27 of 29 22 of 24 135 of 252 7 of 9 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 169 of 445 37% 118 of 389 28 of 32 23 of 24 168 of 443 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 19 of 37 51% 4 of 21 4 of 4 11 of 12 17 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 85 43% 21 of 68 6 of 6 10 of 11 36 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 38 of 65 58% 23 of 50 8 of 8 7 of 7 36 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 45 of 113 39% 30 of 95 9 of 12 6 of 6 45 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 36 of 57 63% 29 of 49 5 of 6 2 of 2 28 of 46 1 of 2 7 of 9
Cory Sandhagen 37 of 86 43% 29 of 78 4 of 4 4 of 4 37 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 36 of 67 53% 28 of 59 8 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 83 30% 20 of 77 4 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 20 of 44 45% 16 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 20 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cory Sandhagen 25 of 78 32% 18 of 71 5 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan to win a competitive decision. He notes both are great strikers, but Yan has the edge in boxing and can mix in takedowns. Sandhagen's takedown defense is a weakness (65% on paper, but was lower before the Dillashaw fight). Yan's wrestling and control time should be the difference. He expects a close fight but Yan edges it out.

"I'm going to say yan slightly edges it out uh it's close fight another close fight but a really good one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Cody is high on Petr Yan, calling him a 'terminator' with cardio, striking, and underrated wrestling. He notes Yan has scored takedowns in his last six fights, including against Aljamain Sterling and Jose Aldo. He thinks Yan's wrestling will be the difference against Sandhagen, who can be taken down. He suggests betting Yan live for a better price but is confident Yan wins.

"peter young's one of those trustworthy guys that if he loses okay it would take a herculean effort"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel picks Petr Yan to defend his title, calling him a top-five pound-for-pound fighter. He highlights Yan's well-roundedness, cardio, and ability to lull opponents into a false sense of security before dropping them. Daniel notes Yan's takedown success against Jose Aldo and Aljamain Sterling, and believes Sandhagen's clinch issues and tendency to give up his back will be exploited. He predicts a fourth-round TKO.

predicts fourth round TKO
"i'm going petery in by fourth round tko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cory Sandhagen

Sandhagen's volume and output from distance will be Yan's kryptonite. Yan prefers to strike but Sandhagen throws 16.5 strikes per minute from outside and has the cardio to maintain it. Yan's takedowns are a threat, but he doesn't usually grapple heavily. Sandhagen wins a volume-based decision.

Sandhagen by decision.
"My pick is corey sandhagen i am picking against peyon once again and i did pick algo last time as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that playing Yan live is risky because Yan might get an early takedown and the line will move to -400. He thinks Sandhagen's only chance is if it's a pure striking match, but Yan's wrestling will be the difference. He sees Yan as the clear side.

"i think peter young is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The MMA Guru picks Petr Yan to win by TKO in the later rounds. He highlights Yan's grappling, especially when taking the back, and notes that Sandhagen gives up his back frequently. He thinks Yan will catch kicks, sweep, and take Sandhagen down. He questions Sandhagen's KO power, noting his recent finishes were against chinny opponents. He predicts Yan will be patient, chop at the legs, and eventually finish Sandhagen in the fourth or fifth round.

fourth or fifth round tko
"i'm gonna go over pyota yan here and i think i'll go with pyote yam by fourth round fifth round tko"
José Aldo - Fight History
LOSS vs Aiemann Zahabi
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 1 68 of 167 40% 71 of 170 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 99 of 199 49% 109 of 209 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 21 of 46 45% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Aiemann Zahabi 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 1 20 of 36 55% 23 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Aiemann Zahabi 0 52 of 87 59% 62 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 68 of 167 40% 48 of 135 13 of 25 7 of 7 67 of 166 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 99 of 199 49% 79 of 167 14 of 22 6 of 10 66 of 151 8 of 11 25 of 37
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 23 of 59 38% 12 of 42 6 of 12 5 of 5 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 21 of 46 45% 15 of 39 4 of 5 2 of 2 18 of 43 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 25 of 72 34% 17 of 62 6 of 8 2 of 2 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aiemann Zahabi 26 of 66 39% 19 of 50 3 of 8 4 of 8 25 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 20 of 36 55% 19 of 31 1 of 5 0 of 0 19 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Aiemann Zahabi 52 of 87 59% 45 of 78 7 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 44 4 of 6 25 of 37
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)

Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.

Considering inside distance decision no action prop
"It is pretty clear that Jose is actually the better fighter. Even at his age, he is fast, he's clean, he's dangerous, he's durable, he's impossible to take down."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Aiemann Zahabi

Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.

"I'm going to take Zahabi to win a very close competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.

"I think Aldo, even in losses, has shown he is still very dangerous in the striking room."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.

TKO in the second round
"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo getting this one done. I'm going to say Jose Aldo gets a TKO in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.

"I'm not going to pick it either. I mean even getting countered by like mario batista... it's hard to look at the hobby like... and not imagine jose aldo just tearing his liver out of his rib cage."
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Merab Dvalishvili 0 38 of 67 56% 59 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 57 of 147 38% 135 of 230 0 of 16 0% 0 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Merab Dvalishvili 0 15 of 25 60% 21 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 16 of 49 32% 21 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:34
2 Merab Dvalishvili 0 11 of 22 50% 25 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 11 of 29 37% 62 of 84 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:54
3 Merab Dvalishvili 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 30 of 69 43% 52 of 92 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Merab Dvalishvili 38 of 67 56% 11 of 35 21 of 25 6 of 7 35 of 63 3 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 57 of 147 38% 20 of 102 10 of 14 27 of 31 43 of 132 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Merab Dvalishvili 15 of 25 60% 1 of 8 11 of 13 3 of 4 15 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 16 of 49 32% 2 of 31 3 of 4 11 of 14 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Merab Dvalishvili 11 of 22 50% 5 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 2 of 3 4 of 4 9 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Merab Dvalishvili 12 of 20 60% 5 of 12 6 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 30 of 69 43% 13 of 49 5 of 7 12 of 13 19 of 58 11 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.

Plans to hammer the 'most takedowns' prop bet on Merab Dvalishvili when it drops on BetOnline, similar to the Jason Witt bet.
"murab's gonna be the pick i'm gonna be rooting for jose aldo the entire time and i will gladly get this pick wrong"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.

Aldo by decision
"i like the dog here on jose auto i like him to stuff takedowns i know it's not going to be a very popular pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.

"i think jose still again another one of these guys that's getting a little bit older but probably still has something left in the tank for underdog money in this close of a fight he's going to lose half the …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.

Mentions that if it were a five-round fight he would confidently pick Merab, but as a three-round fight it's a toss-up. Says Aldo dog money has value because it could be a split decision.
"five round fight I'm confidently picking morab three-round fight it's it's uh it's like who's judging this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.

Aldo by knockout (+450) is mentioned. Also notes under 2.5 rounds (+175) and doesn't go to decision (+150).
"I like jose aldo on the spot and i'm doing my best to not get sucked into the whole aldo and how great he used to be."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Merab Dvalishvili

Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"i'm gonna pick marab i think he does secure takedowns won't be touching this unless it's in a live betting market"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
José Aldo

The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.

TKO in round 2
"tko in the second round for jose aldo the legend"
WIN vs Rob Font
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 149 of 305 48% 193 of 350 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:08
Rob Font 2 86 of 161 53% 96 of 172 0 of 1 0% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 36 of 90 40% 37 of 91 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:50
Rob Font 1 26 of 41 63% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 José Aldo 0 48 of 89 53% 48 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 23 of 51 45% 23 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 37 of 64 57% 46 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 0 12 of 29 41% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
4 José Aldo 0 10 of 20 50% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rob Font 1 10 of 12 83% 15 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:35
5 José Aldo 0 18 of 42 42% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Rob Font 0 15 of 28 53% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 149 of 305 48% 94 of 238 38 of 48 17 of 19 135 of 289 6 of 8 8 of 8
Rob Font 86 of 161 53% 57 of 129 19 of 20 10 of 12 75 of 146 2 of 3 9 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 36 of 90 40% 21 of 72 12 of 14 3 of 4 36 of 90 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 26 of 41 63% 19 of 34 4 of 4 3 of 3 23 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 José Aldo 48 of 89 53% 23 of 60 13 of 17 12 of 12 48 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rob Font 23 of 51 45% 15 of 41 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 37 of 64 57% 29 of 55 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Rob Font 12 of 29 41% 5 of 21 0 of 0 7 of 8 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1
4 José Aldo 10 of 20 50% 9 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Rob Font 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
5 José Aldo 18 of 42 42% 12 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 1 14 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Rob Font 15 of 28 53% 12 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.

"i need to go with font here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rob Font

Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.

by decision; if anything, dog or pass for Jose Aldo at plus money
"i'll take rob font by decision but not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.

"as of right now i think i'm gonna go slight edge towards the underdog jose aldo we'll see if anything changes but this is dog city and uh there's maybe an underdog in the main event here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.

"I think jose can sneak through three of these rounds come out here win this decision and show he's still relevant"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.

"i'm going with jose uh i don't love the play uh but i just think he's so savvy and such a veteran"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rob Font

I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.

Font by decision +195
"i am picking fond to win i think if you are playing font i think fought via decision is probably the best way to go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rob Font

Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.

"i think if it comes down to a five rounds if aldo doesn't land like a liver shot something something really damaging uh doesn't really really attack those leg kicks early on i think he just gets out volume over …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2021 (fight day)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo decision i'll say 4847 decision for jose aldo"
WIN vs Pedro Munhoz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 114 of 223 51% 114 of 223 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 75 of 179 41% 75 of 179 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 28 of 76 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 José Aldo 0 42 of 95 44% 42 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 José Aldo 0 47 of 68 69% 47 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Pedro Munhoz 0 14 of 32 43% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 114 of 223 51% 74 of 168 32 of 47 8 of 8 114 of 223 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 75 of 179 41% 35 of 131 3 of 6 37 of 42 71 of 175 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 25 of 60 41% 13 of 40 12 of 20 0 of 0 25 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 28 of 76 36% 11 of 54 2 of 4 15 of 18 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 42 of 95 44% 32 of 78 9 of 16 1 of 1 42 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 33 of 71 46% 16 of 51 1 of 2 16 of 18 32 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 47 of 68 69% 29 of 50 11 of 11 7 of 7 47 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Pedro Munhoz 14 of 32 43% 8 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 6 12 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2021 (fight day)
Pedro Munhoz

Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.

"I have Munoz over Aldo... Jose Aldo is not 34 years old, Jose Aldo is 40 or higher... Munoz is like a younger, not as good Aldo... coming forward, lots of volume, tons of leg kicks."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 3, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.

"I'm going to say that Munoz does win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.

Munhoz by decision, live betting after round 1
"i'm going to go with pedro moon is on this one i think jose aldo since dropping down his seemingly you know caught a second win his career is you know he's still a top contender he's just not a …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Pedro Munhoz

Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.

"I'm a slightly lean Pedro because of the output but man I would be lying if I said I was confident counting out a legend like Jose Aldo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2021 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.

Aldo by decision +180
"I like 34 year old aldo here against the guy in munoz who I think has kind of just been benefiting from that cody garbrandt knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Aug 4, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.

under 2.5 rounds +175
"i'm interested potentially in the under here we'll see we'll see how these guys look on the scales this week but i think under two and a half rounds of plus 175"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2021 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.

"i'm gonna go with jose aldo here i think he's just too big"
WIN vs Marlon Vera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · Dec 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 44 of 70 62% 60 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:57
Marlon Vera 0 46 of 82 56% 92 of 133 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 19 of 29 65% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marlon Vera 0 16 of 29 55% 29 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:26
2 José Aldo 0 24 of 39 61% 25 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marlon Vera 0 28 of 50 56% 39 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:25
3 José Aldo 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 2 0% 0 0 4:53
Marlon Vera 0 2 of 3 66% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 44 of 70 62% 17 of 38 21 of 26 6 of 6 36 of 62 8 of 8 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 46 of 82 56% 8 of 33 11 of 15 27 of 34 34 of 69 12 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 19 of 29 65% 7 of 15 8 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 16 of 29 55% 2 of 10 0 of 3 14 of 16 15 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 24 of 39 61% 9 of 22 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 32 7 of 7 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 28 of 50 56% 5 of 21 11 of 12 12 of 17 18 of 40 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marlon Vera 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera

Round 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo

Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera

Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)

The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.

"jose aldo you're going to choose him that's a guaranteed win i mean marlon vera got a fluke win against sugar shawn o'malley"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.

decision prop on Aldo, fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i'm going to take jose aldo to win here by decision and um i think the decision props not a bad look"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2020 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.

Aldo inside the distance via TKO
"i think he wipes the floor with marlon vera here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2020 (6 days before fight)
José Aldo

The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.

Mentions that if Dominick Cruz beats Casey Kenny, a fight between Aldo and Cruz could determine a title shot.
"i think aldo is going to win this fight in a competitive very fun fight of the night performance 29 28 to jose aldo"
LOSS vs Petr Yan
TKO (punches) R5 3:24 · UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · Jul 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Petr Yan 1 194 of 309 62% 258 of 376 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
José Aldo 0 83 of 157 52% 83 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Petr Yan 0 33 of 55 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
José Aldo 0 14 of 39 35% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Petr Yan 0 16 of 42 38% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Petr Yan 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 29 of 49 59% 29 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Petr Yan 0 44 of 72 61% 56 of 86 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:05
José Aldo 0 15 of 27 55% 15 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Petr Yan 1 62 of 68 91% 113 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:06
José Aldo 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Petr Yan 194 of 309 62% 150 of 256 35 of 44 9 of 9 99 of 201 9 of 11 86 of 97
José Aldo 83 of 157 52% 38 of 97 28 of 39 17 of 21 81 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Petr Yan 33 of 55 60% 21 of 42 10 of 11 2 of 2 17 of 36 0 of 0 16 of 19
José Aldo 14 of 39 35% 10 of 28 1 of 6 3 of 5 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Petr Yan 16 of 42 38% 11 of 35 3 of 5 2 of 2 16 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
José Aldo 24 of 41 58% 7 of 22 8 of 10 9 of 9 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Petr Yan 39 of 72 54% 27 of 56 10 of 14 2 of 2 35 of 68 4 of 4 0 of 0
José Aldo 29 of 49 59% 13 of 27 12 of 16 4 of 6 27 of 46 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Petr Yan 44 of 72 61% 32 of 58 9 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 52 5 of 7 11 of 13
José Aldo 15 of 27 55% 8 of 20 7 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Petr Yan 62 of 68 91% 59 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 59 of 65
José Aldo 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the …"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.

fourth round knockout
"i'm gonna pick yon i think he's going to put it on aldo all either all five rounds or get him out there late maybe that third fourth round ... give me yawn bye give me fourth round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.

predicts finish within three rounds
"I'm going with Peter yen and become the bantamweight champion by finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.

1-unit bet at +181
"I took a shot on him at one unit at plus 181"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Petr Yan

The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.

"I think yang could go out there and double look double again I don't think our dough's gonna have the same urgency to get up when he knows he's in a five rounder and his cardio isn't the best the world"