UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler

Chandler has tremendous power and pressure, and Oliveira has been knocked out before. Chandler's takedown defense is excellent, so the fight likely stays on the feet where Chandler's power is a major threat. I think Chandler catches Oliveira early and finishes him in the first round by knockout. I also like the under 2.5 rounds.

Cody is confident in Michael Chandler as a plus-money underdog. He highlights Chandler's athleticism, explosiveness, and power, noting that he knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round. Cody believes Chandler can knock out Oliveira early, as Oliveira has a good chin but not a great one. He also mentions that Chandler's wrestling can stuff Oliveira's takedowns. Cody suggests a live betting strategy: bet Chandler after the first round if Oliveira survives, or bet Oliveira at plus money later. He notes the odds suggest the fight may not go past the second round.

Daniel Levi picks Charles Oliveira, citing his eight-fight win streak, improved striking, and mental fortitude. He notes Oliveira's evolution from a quitter to a composed fighter, and believes the mental game has finally caught up with his physical skills. Levi acknowledges Chandler's power and early-finish threat but thinks Oliveira's length, jiu-jitsu, and calf kicks will be key. He mentions that if Oliveira can overcome adversity like he did against Tamer, he will become champion.

The host picks Chandler to land an early bomb and knock out Oliveira. He notes Oliveira's head movement is poor and Chandler has explosive power. He acknowledges Oliveira's improved striking and dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Chandler's wrestling and durability could be key. He says the under 2.5 rounds is his strongest read on the card.

Paul is leaning towards Oliveira based on his longer, straighter punches and submission threat. He notes that Oliveira doesn't need a takedown to grab a hold and find a submission. However, he is not too confident and wants to watch the Ferguson vs Dariush fight first to assess if Ferguson is completely washed, which would devalue Oliveira's win. He mentions that Oliveira's performance against Ferguson could be inflated if Ferguson is done.

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chandler to win by KO in the first round. He believes Chandler's explosiveness and power will be too much for Oliveira, who reacts poorly when hit hard. He predicts Chandler will dictate the pace, land a big right hand, and finish Oliveira against the cage. He also speculates Chandler may be on steroids.

Ferguson has taken massive damage and looks diminished. Dariush is a BJJ black belt with good striking and takedowns. He can implement a similar game plan to Oliveira: take Ferguson down and control him. Ferguson is tough to finish, so I expect a decision win for Dariush.

Cody also picks Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline and poor game plans. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging and he hasn't knocked anyone out in years. Cody believes Dariush is a thinking man's fighter who will use takedowns and top control to win. He points out that Ferguson's takedown defense is weak and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Cody expects Dariush to win the first round and then secure a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Beneil Dariush, emphasizing Ferguson's decline since his knee injury and the Gaethje fight. He notes Dariush's six-fight win streak, knockout power, and jiu-jitsu credentials, and believes Dariush can mix takedowns and avoid submissions. Levi is concerned about Dariush's tendency to leave openings and gas, but thinks Ferguson's durability and chin have diminished. He expects Dariush to dominate and win via decision or late stoppage.

The host picks Dariush but is not confident, noting Ferguson's chaotic style could cause problems. He thinks Dariush should have a grappling advantage and grind out a decision, but worries about Ferguson's ability to create volatility. He says he is not running to the betting window on Dariush.

Paul picks Dariush, citing Ferguson's decline. He notes that Ferguson has lost to elite guys and looked abysmal in his last two fights. Paul believes Dariush's wrestling and game planning will be key, as he can take Ferguson down and neutralize him, similar to what Oliveira did. He mentions that Ferguson's takedown defense is poor and his submission game is not a threat from the bottom. Paul expects Dariush to win by decision, using takedowns to control the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Beneil Dariush over Tony Ferguson, citing Ferguson's age and recent decline. He notes that Ferguson's wins are aging poorly and that Dariush thrives under chaos, which is key against Ferguson. He predicts Dariush will control the fight with grappling and win a unanimous decision 29-28.

Schnell is better everywhere: striking, grappling, and submissions. Bontorin is coming off a knockout loss just two months ago, which is too soon. Schnell has good output and can win by knockout or submission. I like the under or fight doesn't go to distance more than the moneyline.

Cody picks Bontorin as an underdog. He believes Bontorin's physical strength and grappling will be the difference. Cody notes that Schnell has a weak chin and is not physically strong, and Bontorin can close the distance, clinch, and take the fight to the ground. He expects Bontorin to win by controlling the fight on the mat.

Daniel Levi picks Matt Schnell, citing his well-rounded game, volume, and point-fighting style. He notes Bontorin's recent knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and questions his recovery. Levi thinks Schnell can keep distance, jab, and make Bontorin gas out. He warns that Schnell's chin is a concern but believes he can outwork Bontorin for a decision win.

The host picks Schnell, trusting his takedown defense and expecting the fight to stay on the feet where he has the advantage in boxing and combinations. He notes Schnell's durability concerns but thinks he can outpoint Bontorin. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges Bontorin's jiu-jitsu is a threat.

Paul picks Schnell, citing his longer, cleaner striking and submission skills. He notes that Bontorin struggles to make 125 and is moving up to 135. Paul believes Schnell's striking advantage and ability to fight from the outside will be key.

The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Rogério Bontorin, citing Schnell's slick jiu-jitsu and submission game. He believes Bontorin will win the first round with grappling but will slow down, allowing Schnell to take over in rounds two and three with striking. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Schnell.

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Souza has fought much better competition and is levels above Muniz. Muniz has poor takedown defense and has been knocked out in all four losses. Souza is a BJJ black belt who won't get submitted, and he has power. I think Souza takes Muniz down and finishes him by knockout, as Muniz's chin is suspect.

Cody picks Souza, arguing that Muniz's takedown defense is poor and Souza can take him down. He notes that Muniz's striking is not good enough to knock out Souza, and Souza has the advantage in both striking and grappling. Cody believes Souza will win by controlling the fight on the ground.

Daniel Levi picks André Muniz, citing Jacare's age (41) and recent decline, especially the Kevin Holland loss. He notes that Muniz is a credentialed jiu-jitsu player and younger (31), and believes Muniz can attack off his back and outgrapple the older Jacare. Levi thinks Jacare's durability and ability to break opponents have diminished, and expects Muniz to win by decision or submission.

The host picks Jacare Souza, giving him the jiu-jitsu advantage and noting his heavy strikes should get the fight to the ground. He acknowledges Souza is 41 and has a questionable chin after the Holland KO, but thinks he still has enough to grind out Muniz. He predicts a decision win and says he is not going to the betting window on this one.

Paul picks Souza, believing he still has one good fight left. He notes that Souza's grappling is elite and Muniz's striking is poor. Paul thinks Souza can dictate where the fight takes place and has the advantage on the ground. He acknowledges Souza's recent KO loss but points out that prior to that, Souza was competitive with top guys.

The MMA Guru picks André Muniz to win by submission in the first round. He believes Jacare is too old and has declined significantly, as evidenced by Kevin Holland making his grappling look good. He thinks Muniz's athleticism on the ground will be too much for the slower Jacare, and predicts Muniz will catch Jacare on the feet or in a scramble and secure an armbar.

Grundy is a grappler who can get takedowns; he took down Movsar Evloev six times. Vannata has 58% takedown defense and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Grundy's cardio is a concern, but Vannata also slows down. I think Grundy grinds out a decision, but I want to see Vannata's weight cut first.

Cody picks Grundy, emphasizing that Vannata's wrestling defense is poor and Grundy will take him down repeatedly. He notes that Vannata's game plans are questionable and he often fades in later rounds. Cody believes Grundy's wrestling will be the difference, though he acknowledges Vannata could pull off a flashy finish.

Daniel Levi picks Mike Grundy, citing his wrestling pressure and takedowns. He notes that Vannata tends to slow down in fights and has been taken down repeatedly. Levi thinks Grundy's pace and grappling will be too much for Vannata, and predicts a decision win for Grundy. He acknowledges Vannata's striking threat but believes Grundy can neutralize it.

The host picks Grundy, believing his wrestling will be the difference maker. He notes Grundy has cardio issues but thinks Vannata is a far cry from his debut and that Grundy's grappling-heavy style should secure rounds. He predicts a decision win but says he can't trust Grundy even at close odds.

Paul picks Grundy, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes that Vannata has been taken down repeatedly in recent fights and his takedown defense is poor. Paul believes Grundy will control the fight with takedowns and top control, though he is not very confident.

The MMA Guru picks Lando Vannata to win by TKO in the first round. He is surprised that most people are picking Mike Grundy, as he believes Grundy hasn't lived up to expectations and lost to Movsar Evloev. He thinks Vannata's takedown defense and scrambles will keep the fight standing, where Vannata's striking advantage will lead to a first-round finish.

Pickett is durable, never knocked out, and has a solid chin. Wright has terrible striking defense (40%), no chin, and has never been to decision. Pickett can pressure forward, land hard shots, and has good wrestling. I expect Pickett to finish Wright in the second round by knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Pickett, citing his physicality, speed, and strength advantage. He notes that Jordan Wright (Beverly Hills Ninja) has a suspect chin, as seen in the Anthony Hernandez fight, and was steamrolled by Joaquin Buckley. Levi thinks Pickett can knock out Wright or win by decision, and calls this Pickett's best chance to get a UFC win.

The host picks Pickett but wants no part of betting the fight. He notes Pickett has shown durability, eating big shots from Soriano and Chukwu, while Wright has a questionable chin. He thinks Pickett lands a big shot and finishes Wright in the second round. However, he acknowledges both fighters are low level and that Wright could win if he lands early.

The MMA Guru picks Jamie Pickett to win by TKO in round 2. He notes that Jordan Wright has spectacular finishes but against weak competition, and that Wright slows down after the first round. He believes Pickett can absorb Wright's early onslaught, as shown in his fight with Pannie Soriano, and then finish Wright late in the second round against the cage.

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

Mazany should use her wrestling to take down Cachoeira, who has no striking defense and absorbs over 7.9 significant strikes per minute. Cachoeira is dangerous early and has a chin, but Mazany trains with James Krause and will likely grind out a decision. I recommend not betting at -210, but Mazany should win.

Cody picks Mazany, citing her move to 125 pounds and training with James Krause. He notes that Mazany looked strong in her last fight, using takedowns and top control. Cody believes Mazany's wrestling and physicality will be too much for Cachoeira, who has poor takedown defense.

Daniel Levi picks Priscila Cachoeira, citing her power and pressure. He notes that Gina Mazany does not like pressure and has folded in previous fights. Levi thinks Cachoeira's improved training at Team Figueiredo will show, and she will knock out Mazany in the third round. He considers the line inflated and sees value on the dog.

The host picks Mazany but with clear concerns. He notes Mazany looked improved in her last fight against Ostovich, using grappling effectively, but he worries about her durability and tendency to get hit. He fears that if Cachoeira lands cleanly, Mazany might shell up. He sees the stylistic matchup favoring Mazany's grappling but says he needs to see more before investing, predicting a decision win.

Paul picks Cachoeira by knockout, despite acknowledging it's a risky bet. He notes that Mazany folds when hit to the body, as seen in the Julia Avila fight. Paul believes Cachoeira has a striking advantage and can land a knockout, though he admits Mazany could take her down and control the fight. He plans to sprinkle a small bet on Cachoeira by KO at +650.

The MMA Guru picks Gina Mazany over Priscila Cachoeira, though he acknowledges Cachoeira's first-round KO power. He notes that if Cachoeira doesn't get an early finish, she tends to fade. He predicts Mazany's better cardio and pace will win her the later rounds, resulting in a 29-28 unanimous decision. He also mentions a prop bet on Cachoeira winning in the first round.

Aguilar is the better fighter overall with phenomenal takedown defense (87%) and has fought tougher competition. Lutz is very hittable with poor striking defense. However, Aguilar's low volume is a concern; he got outlanded in recent fights. I think Aguilar lands the harder shots and is live for a knockout, but I'm not betting on him.

Cody picks Lutz, emphasizing Aguilar's chin issues. He notes that Aguilar has been knocked out by lesser strikers and Lutz has good durability. Cody believes Lutz's wrestling and ability to take a punch will allow him to win a decision or late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Aguilar, hoping he looks better than his last fight. He notes that Aguilar's previous loss to Charles Rosa was disappointing, but if he can improve even 1%, he can win. Levi acknowledges that Tucker Lutz is a workman with good kicks, but thinks Aguilar has the experience edge. He calls it a pick'em and a dog-or-pass situation.

The host leans toward Lutz, citing his versatility on the feet and wrestling background. He notes Aguilar marches forward in a straight line and throws big shots but lacks diversity. He thinks Lutz moves better, mixes up kicks, and has a strong lead kick. However, he acknowledges it could be a close stand-up fight and is not ultra confident, predicting a decision win for Lutz.

Paul picks Lutz, noting that Aguilar has a weak chin and has been knocked out recently. He believes Lutz's durability and wrestling will be key. Paul expects Lutz to take shots and keep coming, while Aguilar may falter if hit. He sees this as a fun fight that could go to decision.

The MMA Guru picks Tucker Lutz over Kevin Aguilar, citing Aguilar's recent decline and poor performances, including a loss to Charles Rosa. He believes Aguilar has taken too much damage and no longer takes shots well. He sees Lutz as a rising contender with momentum and predicts a close unanimous decision 29-28.

Giagos has a clear path to victory via takedowns and top control. Soriano is on short notice and has historically poor takedown defense, giving up his back. Giagos averages about three takedowns per 15 minutes, though his cardio fades in round three. He should ride out at least two rounds for a decision win.

Cody picks Giagos, emphasizing that Soriano's takedown defense is non-existent and he gives up submissions easily. Cody believes Giagos will take him down and control the fight. He notes that Soriano's only path to victory is a first-round KO, but Giagos is durable.

Daniel Levi picks Sean Soriano as a dog, citing his technical kickboxing and the possibility that Giagos gasses. He notes that both fighters have cardio issues, but Soriano's striking could give him an edge if he doesn't get taken down. Levi is concerned about Soriano's history of gassing and getting choked out, but thinks at the dog price it's worth a shot.

The host picks Giagos but expresses significant hesitation. He notes Giagos has decent striking but his bread and butter is grinding opponents on the ground, though his cardio looks suspect. He worries that if Soriano can stop takedowns and get his hands going, it could cause Giagos problems later in the fight. He ultimately thinks Giagos grinds out a decision but says he just can't trust him and thinks the line is too wide.

Paul picks Giagos, noting that Soriano has a clear weakness: he cannot stop takedowns and gives up his back. Paul believes Giagos will spam takedowns and either win by submission or decision. He mentions that Giagos is a decision machine but Soriano leaves his neck out, making a submission possible.

The MMA Guru picks Christos Giagos over Sean Soriano, citing Giagos's impressive performance on short notice against Carlton Minus and a competitive fight with Drakkar Klose. He questions Soriano's recent win over an older Noah Lahat and notes Soriano is stepping in on short notice. He predicts Giagos will win the grappling exchanges and land more on the feet, winning a unanimous decision 30-27.