UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler Next Fight
Age 37
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Andrea Lee
4.62 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.91 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.65 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
3.86 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.93 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Andrea Lee
Moneyline
FanDuel +104
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetWay +163
Antonina Shevchenko
Moneyline
FanDuel -122
KO/TKO
BetWay +800
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +120
Andrea Lee - Fight History
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 53 of 175 30% 66 of 192 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 74 of 137 54% 77 of 142 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 43 48% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
2 Andrea Lee 0 15 of 58 25% 18 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Andrea Lee 0 20 of 60 33% 30 of 74 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 28 of 48 58% 29 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 53 of 175 30% 13 of 109 25 of 44 15 of 22 52 of 174 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 74 of 137 54% 54 of 114 10 of 13 10 of 10 68 of 130 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 18 of 57 31% 1 of 32 8 of 12 9 of 13 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Andrea Lee 15 of 58 25% 3 of 35 6 of 14 6 of 9 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 25 of 46 54% 17 of 37 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Andrea Lee 20 of 60 33% 9 of 42 11 of 18 0 of 0 19 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 28 of 48 58% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 25 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.

Value bet at +163; do not bet heavily
"Andrea Lee at plus 163 are decent odds like this is pretty good ODS there's some good value there and it might be worth a step"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.

Aldrich by split decision
"I'm going to pick JJ Aldridge and I'm going to take Aldridge to win probably by a split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.

"I have to lean with the Aldrich side as I believe that she can go out there and utilize her striking approach to nullify the kickboxing of Lee shut down the grappling that Lee might might look to initiate and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.

"I'm gonna go with JJ Aldridge over Andrea Lee... she's a little bit more well-rounded than Andrea Lee and she'll probably be able to get a few takedowns in this fight."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:08
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 180 38% 88 of 206 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 27 of 50 54% 52 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:52
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 44 31% 17 of 49 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:10
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 68 45% 36 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 33 of 81 40% 37 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 55 41% 34 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 75 of 152 49% 37 of 109 29 of 31 9 of 12 58 of 129 13 of 16 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 70 of 180 38% 53 of 156 12 of 17 5 of 7 62 of 161 5 of 16 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 27 of 50 54% 16 of 38 10 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 31 11 of 12 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 14 of 44 31% 9 of 37 4 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 31 of 68 45% 14 of 49 11 of 12 6 of 7 30 of 65 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 33 of 81 40% 26 of 72 4 of 5 3 of 4 33 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
3 Montana De La Rosa 17 of 34 50% 7 of 22 8 of 9 2 of 3 16 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 55 41% 18 of 47 4 of 6 1 of 2 19 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.

"unless I was 100% positive that Montana Delarosa was all in on the wrestling I gotta go Andrea Lee"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.

"I'm going to take De la Rosa with little to no confidence I'm not betting on this fight and God help you if you are betting on on this fight here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.

Andrea Lee by decision
"I got Lee and then if you want to get a little spicy with it uh lee by decision she's not knocking out delar Roa she's not submitting delar Rosa so if she's going to win she's just going to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.

split decision
"I'll go Andrea Lee via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.

"I'm leaning Andrea Lee here I don't absolutely love it because if Montana does come in all in wrestling all of a sudden it's Andrew Lee laying on her back for 15 minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.

submission
"I'm going to Le Lee in this spot... I'm going to say Lee by submission she might throw something up and catch T Roa in it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.

"Lee Lee on on volume Montana Del la ro said for all of her faults she has always been incredibly durable so uh credit word credits do on that front"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.

"I'll go with Andrea Lee I think she can Implement damage more she's a more physical specimen out of the two of them"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miranda Maverick 0 36 of 102 35% 59 of 126 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:42
Andrea Lee 0 66 of 136 48% 106 of 180 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miranda Maverick 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Andrea Lee 0 24 of 43 55% 31 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
2 Miranda Maverick 0 9 of 34 26% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 48 47% 47 of 74 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
3 Miranda Maverick 0 15 of 37 40% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 19 of 45 42% 28 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miranda Maverick 36 of 102 35% 14 of 72 13 of 19 9 of 11 32 of 96 3 of 3 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 66 of 136 48% 28 of 89 16 of 25 22 of 22 60 of 128 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miranda Maverick 12 of 31 38% 4 of 20 4 of 6 4 of 5 9 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 24 of 43 55% 9 of 25 5 of 8 10 of 10 23 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Miranda Maverick 9 of 34 26% 4 of 26 3 of 5 2 of 3 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 48 47% 11 of 34 4 of 6 8 of 8 21 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miranda Maverick 15 of 37 40% 6 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 34 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 19 of 45 42% 8 of 30 7 of 11 4 of 4 16 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.

over 2.5 rounds
"I am going to pick Miranda Maverick here... I think the over two and a half in this fight is probably the lock of the card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.

Maverick by decision
"I do like Maverick here to win this fight... Maverick by decision is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.

"Andrea Lee is the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.

"I'm on Maverick here but I'm probably this is probably a line I'm staying away from."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.

"Pass for me also."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.

"Maverick is is my pick here as well yeah you can't really put any any faith in Lee at this point in her career and she's going to have a big strong younger fighter on her case here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.

"I expect Maverick to be competitive in that realm but eventually drag this fight into the clinch position and to the ground where Maverick should be able to control it and suck the energy out of Lee"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.

Lee by decision (suggested)
"it just has to be an auto bet on the underdog so I will take Andre Le to win by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.

If more money comes in on Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee becomes even bigger of an underdog, I might advise people to put some money on her.
"I think Miranda Maverick is the more improving fighter she's the younger fighter she's training at Team elevation... I think she'll be able to outgrapple Andrea Lee in this fight."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 43 of 125 34% 43 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 174 40% 70 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 43 of 125 34% 12 of 74 11 of 23 20 of 28 43 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 70 of 174 40% 34 of 111 17 of 43 19 of 20 70 of 174 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 14 of 49 28% 4 of 29 3 of 7 7 of 13 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 26 of 62 41% 13 of 38 6 of 16 7 of 8 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 18 of 42 42% 5 of 24 6 of 10 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 50 44% 8 of 29 9 of 16 5 of 5 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 11 of 34 32% 3 of 21 2 of 6 6 of 7 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 62 35% 13 of 44 2 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.

Parlay with Andre Petroski at -133; under on Andrea Lee takedowns if line is high
"This should be a Natalia Silva play all day long... I am confident enough in Natalia Silva to have a one unit parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.

fight goes to decision
"I think this fight could be a lot closer than this line does indicate... I do have to lean to the Natalia Silverside... I think this fight does Go the Distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.

"I would think Natalie's still a big favorite women's MMA I would say don't do it I would take Natali Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.

Lee plus 3.5 spread; Lee by submission or decision
"I like her not gonna go crazy on it because I know Silva's the real deal but I'm gonna have some money on Lee"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.

"I do think she's gonna win I am picking Natalia silver to win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.

Silva by decision
"I lean Silva on this fight and I'm not too high on the chalky price tag... I would rather hone in on that Natalia Silva by decision line more than her actual money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.

decision win 29-28
"I'm going with Natalia Silva getting this one done by decision win 29-28"
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 39 of 103 37% 57 of 125 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:20
Andrea Lee 0 48 of 127 37% 66 of 158 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 12 of 35 34% 16 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:06
Andrea Lee 0 17 of 45 37% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Maycee Barber 0 15 of 38 39% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:54
Andrea Lee 0 17 of 43 39% 24 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
3 Maycee Barber 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 34 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:20
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 39 35% 20 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 39 of 103 37% 10 of 57 15 of 27 14 of 19 34 of 97 4 of 5 1 of 1
Andrea Lee 48 of 127 37% 31 of 97 9 of 20 8 of 10 38 of 113 3 of 7 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 12 of 35 34% 3 of 18 5 of 11 4 of 6 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 17 of 45 37% 11 of 35 2 of 6 4 of 4 11 of 38 1 of 2 5 of 5
2 Maycee Barber 15 of 38 39% 6 of 23 2 of 6 7 of 9 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 17 of 43 39% 11 of 31 2 of 6 4 of 6 17 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Maycee Barber 12 of 30 40% 1 of 16 8 of 10 3 of 4 8 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1
Andrea Lee 14 of 39 35% 9 of 31 5 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 33 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.

"I like Andrea Lee in this fight I do think she wins no bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.

Lee by split decision
"I'll go Lee here and lead by like a split decision maybe even like a robbery decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.

"I want nothing to do with this line way too wide for my liking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.

Mentions odds: Lee opened +165, currently +213; Barber opened -190, currently -268. Notes line trending away from Lee.
"I think it's too much of a situation where Barber just rushes at her and puts her on the fence and starts landing elbows and just starts taking the fight away from her. Lee will fade out of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.

"I am going to pick Macy Barber because I just feel like I'm just way too biased to pick Andrew Lee."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.

"I'm going to go Macy Barber here feeling pretty good about it as well and I expect her to go out there and grind out Andrea Lee on route to a decision victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.

"I'm going with Macy Barber... I think if she does [get the takedown] we'll start to see Andrea Lee slow down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.

Mentions odds: Lee +213, Barber -268. Notes line swinging wide.
"The only thing Barbara has shown her recent fights is a willingness to just make people deal with her physicality. Yeah. Make them deal with her athleticism and her strength and just grab ahold of them and throw them around."
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 39 of 79 49% 96 of 160 3 of 5 60% 2 0 10:40
Andrea Lee 1 47 of 82 57% 64 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 34 52% 31 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Andrea Lee 1 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 27 51% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:26
Andrea Lee 0 9 of 10 90% 13 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 7 of 18 38% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Andrea Lee 0 13 of 21 61% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 39 of 79 49% 25 of 63 9 of 11 5 of 5 32 of 66 0 of 0 7 of 13
Andrea Lee 47 of 82 57% 34 of 65 9 of 13 4 of 4 36 of 64 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 18 of 34 52% 11 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 25 of 51 49% 19 of 42 4 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 34 6 of 10 4 of 7
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 27 51% 10 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 9
Andrea Lee 9 of 10 90% 5 of 6 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 1
Andrea Lee 13 of 21 61% 10 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.

"i think this lead thing is the same thing like physically lisa as strong as anybody the technique's just not quite there in the takedown defense she shorted up a little bit and she still stops more takedowns than she …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.

"i would say cody just be careful don't put this all the way up but like ticket one ticket two because it could be a situation where arujo takes her down is able to hold top control"
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 47 of 154 30% 47 of 154 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 84 of 210 40% 85 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 43 of 116 37% 44 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 41 of 94 43% 41 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 47 of 154 30% 18 of 99 21 of 46 8 of 9 47 of 154 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 84 of 210 40% 46 of 155 30 of 45 8 of 10 83 of 208 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 25 of 87 28% 11 of 62 10 of 20 4 of 5 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 43 of 116 37% 27 of 92 12 of 19 4 of 5 43 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 22 of 67 32% 7 of 37 11 of 26 4 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 41 of 94 43% 19 of 63 18 of 26 4 of 5 40 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

moneyline bet at minus 105
"andrea leaves my pick and i do have a moneyline bet at her at minus 105 almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Calvillo by decision
"i will take alveo though and i will take alvey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

"i got a bad gut feeling that calvio's actually gonna end up losing this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

"give me cynthia calvio to come out here and and probably win the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

"i think she absolutely dominates this fight i i'm a big cynthia fan"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"i think calvio is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cynthia Calvillo

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

unanimous decision 29-27
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo here and i'm going to be picking her by unanimous decision"
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 40 of 63 63% 58 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Antonina Shevchenko 0 52 of 110 47% 128 of 209 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 29 of 41 70% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 33 27% 26 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:19
2 Casey O'Neill 0 11 of 22 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Antonina Shevchenko 0 43 of 77 55% 102 of 157 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 40 of 63 63% 32 of 55 8 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 45 8 of 8 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 52 of 110 47% 46 of 101 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 3 37 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 29 of 41 70% 23 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 33 27% 5 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 4
2 Casey O'Neill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antonina Shevchenko 43 of 77 55% 41 of 74 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 1 35 of 48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:33 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 39 of 57 68% 94 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 7:39
Ariane da Silva 0 15 of 26 57% 25 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 10 of 12 83% 37 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 14 71% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 29 of 45 64% 57 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:51
Ariane da Silva 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 39 of 57 68% 32 of 50 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 12 5 of 6 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 15 of 26 57% 7 of 15 5 of 6 3 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 10 of 12 83% 4 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 29 of 45 64% 28 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

would not bet this fight
"i'm going to take chefchenko i think it could play out close as a lot of women's fights do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

"i am actually gonna pick uh my girl queen of violent slipski to come in here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

"I do like Chef Cho again I think she's cleaner on the feet uh she might have the Jiu-Jitsu Advantage as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

"i'm definitely going to be going with antonina chefchenko to get the job done over ariana lipsky by unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 23 69% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:54
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 24 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 21 76% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:37
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:40
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Lucie Pudilová 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 23 69% 3 of 6 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 3 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 8 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 21 76% 3 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
WIN vs Ji Yeon Kim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 33 of 128 25% 85 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ji Yeon Kim 0 66 of 134 49% 87 of 167 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 50 18% 16 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Ji Yeon Kim 0 15 of 35 42% 19 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 46 26% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Ji Yeon Kim 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 32 37% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ji Yeon Kim 0 27 of 46 58% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 33 of 128 25% 18 of 113 5 of 5 10 of 10 26 of 116 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 66 of 134 49% 41 of 101 18 of 26 7 of 7 46 of 106 14 of 19 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 50 18% 3 of 44 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 15 of 35 42% 10 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 46 26% 8 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 24 of 53 45% 16 of 41 6 of 10 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 32 37% 7 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4 10 of 25 2 of 7 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 27 of 46 58% 15 of 30 8 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 28 7 of 9 6 of 9
Expert Picks (6)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"