Jordan Wright

Angelo is confident in Pauga, citing his strong wrestling and low stance. He notes Pauga went up to heavyweight for TUF but is a natural light heavyweight. Jordan Wright has a 100% finish rate but is on a three-fight losing streak by stoppage and has a weak chin. Angelo thinks Pauga will wrestle and win, but there's no value in the betting line so he won't bet.

Big Brady is picking Jordan Wright for the upset, despite never picking him before. He notes that Pauga was knocked out by Muhammad Usman, who is not a power puncher, and that Pauga has only a 20% finish rate. He believes Wright is dangerous in the first two minutes and should come out aggressively rather than wrestling, as his cardio is poor. He predicts a first-round knockout for Wright.

Cody picks Pauga but is terrified of the -270 line. He notes Jordan Wright has only 5-6 minutes of cardio and is an under machine, but Pauga isn't a big finisher. He says Wright can absolutely get finishes early, so he'll watch weigh-ins closely. He compares Wright to Terence McKinney as a 50/50 fighter who either finishes early or gets pieced up. He also mentions Pauga got knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before, so he's not confident.

Connor picks Wright because he thinks the move to light heavyweight could benefit Wright's speed and power, and Pauga is inexperienced and slow. However, he acknowledges Wright's mental fragility and tendency to panic. He picks Wright to win by first-round KO, but says he wouldn't bet on it.

Jacob picks Pauga but is a Jordan Wright fan. He thinks Wright's chin is gone and his blitzing style leaves him open. Pauga's wrestling and power at 205 should be too much. Jacob played the under 1.5 rounds and feels good about it, though he cautions both are coming off knockout losses. He expects Wright to get knocked out again.

Pauga has better cardio and a more complete MMA game, while Wright fades after the first round and has durability issues. Pauga can survive the early storm and then take over with grappling and pressure, finishing Wright via ground and pound in the second or third round.

Paul agrees with Cody, calling Jordan Wright a lost fighter with no cardio or durability. He details Wright's pattern of starting fast but fading and getting finished. He notes Pauga has excellent cardio, trains at altitude, and has enough striking to pressure Wright. However, he says the -270 line is too high for a guy with one UFC win who got knocked out. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds at -350 as a parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Zac Pauga, citing his takedown defense from The Ultimate Fighter and his size advantage. He criticizes Jordan Wright's poor decision-making and quick turnaround after a KO loss. He believes Pauga is patient and can catch Wright with a counter shot after Wright gets reckless in round two, predicting a KO. He notes the possibility of an upset but trusts Pauga's chin more.

Angelo picks Duško Todorović, believing he is the much better striker. He notes that Jordan Wright is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with big power but a karate style that can be exploited. He is confident in Duško but acknowledges that Jordan is always live and could push a wrestling-heavy game plan, as Duško has 50% takedown defense.

Big Brady picks Duško Todorović to win by first-round ground-and-pound finish. He notes that Jordan Wright is dangerous offensively but has terrible defense and chin, while Todorović has more paths to victory including takedowns and ground-and-pound. He expects Todorović to take the fight to the mat and dominate. He calls this his favorite fight on the card and mentions he has a bet on it.

Cody is very confident in the under 1.5 rounds, calling it his biggest bet in a while. He notes Jordan Wright has never been past 7.5 minutes in any fight, and Todorović has chin issues. He expects Todorović to take Wright down and finish him in the first round. He also likes the under as a standalone bet and in a parlay.

Connor picks Todorović, citing his love for fighting and aggression that will break Wright over time. He notes that Wright panics and gets exhausted, and Todorović's pressure will contribute to that. He acknowledges Todorović is very hittable but believes his durability and passion give him the edge in a longer fight.

Both fighters have power and suspect chins, making this a likely early finish. Todorović has poor striking defense, keeping his hands down, while Wright is explosive but fragile. The host leans Todorović to land the big strike first, but the under 1.5 rounds is the preferred play. Wright is a live underdog, and the fight is closer than the odds suggest.

Paul considers Jordan Wright as a PRP pick, noting Wright is a fast starter with decent power, as shown in his knockout of Jamie Pickett. He points out Todorović is hittable and has a questionable chin, and Wright could catch him early. However, he acknowledges Wright's own flaws and the under is the safer play.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Wright as a juicy underdog, leaning towards him despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He notes that Wright has been training at Jackson Wink and is settling in. He believes Wright's size and reach advantage will allow him to manipulate the clinch and land knees to finish Todorović, calling it a 50/50 fight.

Angelo leans Jordan Wright, calling it closer to a coin flip. He notes Wright is more dangerous but Barriault is the better fighter. He is concerned that Barriault may not have fully recovered from a KO loss less than 90 days ago, and that this is short notice. He mentions Wright's ridiculous striking differential (lands and gets hit over 8 strikes per minute).

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by knockout, citing his durability and more paths to victory. He notes that Jordan Wright is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with poor defense and chin, while Barriault is typically durable and more defensively sound. He expects Barriault to weather the early storm and finish Wright late in the first round.

Cody picks Wright, citing Barriault's recent knockout loss and questionable chin. He notes Wright's early aggression and power, and that Barriault is taking the fight on short notice at a catchweight. He thinks Wright's best chance is a first-round KO and likes the knockout prop.

The host picks Marc-André Barriault to win, including him in a parlay with Guida and Andrade. He acknowledges that Jordan Wright could win but suggests playing Wright's KO line instead of a straight bet.

Paul leans Barriault but low priority. He acknowledges Wright's early KO threat but thinks if Barriault survives the first round, his grinding style will take over. He notes Barriault's durability before the last fight and expects him to wear on Wright.

Big Brady is confident in Bruno Silva winning by first-round knockout. He highlights that both fighters have poor striking defense and high finish rates, but Silva has never been knocked out and hits extremely hard. Wright has a questionable chin and keeps his chin high, making him vulnerable. Brady expects Silva to pressure Wright against the cage and land heavy combinations. He also notes the fight doesn't go to decision line is minus 450, indicating high finish probability.

Daniel Levi picks Bruno Silva to knock out Jordan Wright. He praises Silva's body work, knees, and finishing ability, noting his wins over Alexander Shlemenko and Artem Frolov. Levi criticizes Wright's durability, saying he can give but not take shots. He expects Silva to land a body shot that puts Wright down. Levi is confident in Silva's power and pressure.

Pickett is durable, never knocked out, and has a solid chin. Wright has terrible striking defense (40%), no chin, and has never been to decision. Pickett can pressure forward, land hard shots, and has good wrestling. I expect Pickett to finish Wright in the second round by knockout.

Daniel Levi picks Jamie Pickett, citing his physicality, speed, and strength advantage. He notes that Jordan Wright (Beverly Hills Ninja) has a suspect chin, as seen in the Anthony Hernandez fight, and was steamrolled by Joaquin Buckley. Levi thinks Pickett can knock out Wright or win by decision, and calls this Pickett's best chance to get a UFC win.

The host picks Pickett but wants no part of betting the fight. He notes Pickett has shown durability, eating big shots from Soriano and Chukwu, while Wright has a questionable chin. He thinks Pickett lands a big shot and finishes Wright in the second round. However, he acknowledges both fighters are low level and that Wright could win if he lands early.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by first-round knockout. He notes Buckley has better experience and competition, while Wright's early wins were against low-level opponents. He thinks Buckley's pressure and the small cage will be key, and Wright doesn't like being hit.

Daniel picks Buckley, citing his aggressive pressure and power. He notes the '50k curse' but believes Buckley's forward pressure will break Wright's karate style. He also mentions Buckley's wrestling and durability, though he expects a tougher fight than some anticipate.

The host picks Jordan Wright to win by first or second round KO, despite acknowledging it's a surprising pick. He thinks the line on Buckley is skewed by his viral knockout, and that Wright has a size advantage and better game plan. He recommends against parlaying Buckley.

Big Brady picks Jordan Wright to win by knockout, expecting an early finish. He is not impressed with Ike Villanueva, who looked awful against Chase Sherman, landing only 20 strikes before getting knocked out. Wright is faster and has power, though he has fought mostly nobodies. Wright is coming up from 185 to 205, but Brady likes his style and expects him to land a shot and finish Villanueva.

Daniel Levi picks Ike Villanueva to win by knockout. He notes that Jordan Wright is too small for light heavyweight, weighing in at 200 pounds, and lacks the toughness to compete in the UFC. Levi believes Villanueva has better size and experience, and that this is likely the only fight Villanueva will win in his UFC career. He expects a sloppy fight but sees Villanueva's power and durability as decisive.

Wright is explosive, fast, and has knockout power, while Villanueva is 36 and was just finished by Chase Sherman. Wright's speed and footwork should be too much for Villanueva, who has durability issues. Expect a first-round KO from Wright. If Wright comes out as an underdog, he might be worth a small bet.