Tucker Lutz

Angelo picks Tucker Lutz as the underdog, citing a wider wrestling and grappling skill gap than the striking gap. He believes Tucker can keep a tight guard, come forward, and look to wrestle, needing a perfect 15-minute fight to avoid getting knocked out. He notes that Melsik is dangerous late, having gotten a third-round KO after giving up takedowns, so Tucker must be cautious. Angelo is surprised Melsik is a 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight could be a boring wrestling match.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as a slight underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Baghdasaryan is the better striker with power, but Lutz has solid wrestling and cardio. He expects Lutz to get takedowns and control time, while Baghdasaryan may have bigger moments on the feet. He thinks it goes to a close decision and sides with the dog, though he missed the better plus money earlier.

Cody reluctantly picks Lutz as an underdog, citing his wrestling advantage if he uses it. He notes Baghdasaryan is a dangerous striker but has poor takedown defense, as seen in the Culibao fight. He acknowledges Lutz has looked bad recently, getting chin-checked by Pineda, but thinks the plus money is worth a shot. He has zero confidence but sees an angle.

James is leaning towards Tucker Lutz as an underdog. He notes that Melsik Baghdasaryan has grappling deficiencies and was submitted quickly in his last fight. He questions whether Lutz has the offensive wrestling and cardio to exploit those weaknesses, but thinks the line may offer value on the dog side. He plans to watch tape to confirm.

The host expects a pissed-off Baghdasaryan to take out his aggression on Lutz, using his combinations and power to stifle Lutz. He notes Lutz has broken before and thinks Baghdasaryan can win by decision, though he's not certain about a finish.

Paul leans toward Baghdasaryan, citing his striking advantage and Lutz's poor striking defense. He notes the market moved from -200 to -160, making it less valuable. He thinks Baghdasaryan can exploit Lutz's defensive flaws and land big shots. He is not convinced in Lutz's wrestling ability and sees this as a stay-away fight at current odds.

Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.

Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.

Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.

Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.

The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.

The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.

Angelo picks Pat Sabatini, calling him an absolute dog with incredible grappling. He notes Tucker Lutz's striking is overrated and he has defensive holes, getting hit more than he lands despite being on top. He expects Sabatini to win by submission or decision, but does not place a bet due to tricky odds. He likes Sabatini's DraftKings price at 8700.

Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz as an underdog at +120. He believes Lutz has the striking and volume advantage and that his takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing. He notes that Pat Sabatini's striking is a liability and that Lutz can outpoint him for three rounds. He warns that if the fight goes to the mat, Sabatini is dangerous, but he trusts Lutz to fight smart and keep it on the feet.

Cody picks the underdog Tucker Lutz. He argues that Sabatini's grappling is excellent but his gas tank is questionable, as he gassed in the third round against Tristan Connolly. He notes that Sabatini's win over Jamal Emers was due to a mistake by Emers. Lutz is well-rounded with decent wrestling defense and technical boxing. Cody believes Lutz will sprawl and brawl, out-strike Sabatini, and win a close decision. He likes the plus money on a competitive fight.

Daniel Levi leans toward Tucker Lutz as the underdog, but admits it's a tough fight to pick. He respects both fighters' skills, calling it a chess match. He notes that Lutz has good volume and is improving each fight, while Sabatini is crafty with a high fight IQ. Levi expects Lutz to close the distance and land harder shots down the stretch, but is not confident.

Lock likes Lutz as the better striker with a high school wrestling background to defend takedowns. He thinks Lutz will keep the fight standing and pick Sabatini apart with combinations. He notes Sabatini's striking is flashy but not effective, and that Lutz has the tools to avoid Sabatini's submission game. Lock took Lutz at +110 and likes the decision prop.

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He says he will consider Lutz but is waiting for weigh-ins. He does not express a strong opinion either way.

Aguilar is the better fighter overall with phenomenal takedown defense (87%) and has fought tougher competition. Lutz is very hittable with poor striking defense. However, Aguilar's low volume is a concern; he got outlanded in recent fights. I think Aguilar lands the harder shots and is live for a knockout, but I'm not betting on him.

Cody picks Lutz, emphasizing Aguilar's chin issues. He notes that Aguilar has been knocked out by lesser strikers and Lutz has good durability. Cody believes Lutz's wrestling and ability to take a punch will allow him to win a decision or late finish.

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Aguilar, hoping he looks better than his last fight. He notes that Aguilar's previous loss to Charles Rosa was disappointing, but if he can improve even 1%, he can win. Levi acknowledges that Tucker Lutz is a workman with good kicks, but thinks Aguilar has the experience edge. He calls it a pick'em and a dog-or-pass situation.

The host leans toward Lutz, citing his versatility on the feet and wrestling background. He notes Aguilar marches forward in a straight line and throws big shots but lacks diversity. He thinks Lutz moves better, mixes up kicks, and has a strong lead kick. However, he acknowledges it could be a close stand-up fight and is not ultra confident, predicting a decision win for Lutz.

Paul picks Lutz, noting that Aguilar has a weak chin and has been knocked out recently. He believes Lutz's durability and wrestling will be key. Paul expects Lutz to take shots and keep coming, while Aguilar may falter if hit. He sees this as a fun fight that could go to decision.