Career Averages - Rogério Bontorin
Career Averages - Matt Schnell
Rogério Bontorin
Matt Schnell
Rogério Bontorin - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 40 of 132 | 30% | 81 of 174 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 28 of 58 | 48% | 39 of 71 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 7:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 9 of 50 | 18% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 10 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:49 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 19 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 40 of 132 | 30% | 21 of 96 | 15 of 25 | 4 of 11 | 28 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 28 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 28 of 58 | 48% | 16 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 9 of 50 | 18% | 3 of 30 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 7 | 7 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 12 of 23 | 52% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 |
Angelo picks Royval but worries about his wildness leading to a submission loss. He notes Royval is the better striker and more well-rounded, while Bontorin is the better grappler with more power. He placed a prop bet on Bontorin 'wins inside distance or decision no action' at +165, meaning if Bontorin loses a decision he gets a refund.
Big Brady highlights Royval's striking volume and pace as key advantages, noting Bontorin has low output and poor striking defense. He believes Royval's cardio will be decisive, especially since Bontorin struggles with weight cuts and has slowed down in the past. He predicts Royval will finish Bontorin by knockout in the second or third round after Bontorin fades.
Cody picks Royval, emphasizing his furious pace, crafty grappling, and ability to recover from adversity. He notes Bontorin's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He expects Royval to win by submission or TKO as Bontorin gasses. He calls it a potential fight of the night.
Daniel Levi picks Brandon Royval to outwork Bontorin. He notes that Bontorin cuts massive weight and tends to fatigue, while Royval pushes a relentless pace. Levi acknowledges Bontorin's explosiveness and black belt jiu-jitsu but believes Royval's scrambling and get-ups will neutralize takedowns. He also mentions Royval's chin and durability, though he has defensive flaws. Levi considers the line accurate and sees no value on either side, but picks Royval to win.
The host is high on Brandon Royval's chaotic style and pressure, believing he will overwhelm Bontorin, especially given Bontorin's difficult weight cut to 125 lbs. He expects Royval to drag Bontorin into deep waters, wearing him down with forward pressure and activity. The host sees a finish likely in the second or third round via TKO as Bontorin fades. He notes Bontorin's BJJ is a threat but thinks Royval's chaos and cardio will prevail.
Paul picks Royval, praising his scrambling, submission threats off his back, and superior striking. He notes Bontorin has good BJJ but fades in scrambles and has cardio issues. He expects Royval's pace to overwhelm Bontorin, leading to a finish inside two and a half rounds. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds is juiced but still likely.
The MMA Guru picks Bontorin as one of his bigger underdogs on the card. He highlights Royval's habit of turning his back and giving up rear-naked chokes, as seen against Pantoja and Moreno. Bontorin has strong grappling and submission skills, and he was dominating Kai Kara-France before getting caught. He also notes that Bontorin may come in heavier if he misses weight. He predicts a scrappy first round where Royval may have success, but then Bontorin will jump on a standing rear-naked choke in the second round after Royval gives up his back again.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 113 of 184 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 72 of 124 | 58% | 89 of 143 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 21 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 62 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 48 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 65 of 135 | 48% | 38 of 104 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 57 of 125 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 72 of 124 | 58% | 57 of 103 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 57 of 107 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 22 of 46 | 47% | 13 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 29 of 58 | 50% | 17 of 44 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 52 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 21 of 45 | 46% | 16 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 19 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 14 of 31 | 45% | 8 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 31 of 46 | 67% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two flyweights with a majority of their respective wins by submission in Schnell (15-5, 5-3 UFC) and Bontorin (16-3, 1 NC; 2-2 UFC) will meet not at 125 pounds or even 135, but 137 after Bontorin missed weight. This catchweight contest draws officiating from referee Kerry Hatley, and Schnell is fired up in front of his home crowd and offers a glove touch to the heavier man. Schnell reaches out early with a long jab, and Bontorin circles along the outside without throwing anything for 40 seconds. On the other hand, Schnell kicks the body and flicks out a few jabs, and he kicks the lead leg as Bontorin comes forward. The Brazilian takes a one-two across the forward bow, and he loads up but misses with an overhand right in response. Schnell bears down with a leg kick, and Bontorin replies in kind. Both men are cautious on their approaches, with Schnell picking at him before getting cracked with a left hand. Schnell fights his way out with a few looping punches, and he backs away before resetting to pressure Bontorin. The Brazilian loads up with a left hook that Schnell walks through, and Schnell takes a right hand that gets his attention too. Bontorin primarily throws single power punches, but they are landing as Schnell snaps out with jabs. A short left hand makes Bontorin stumble, and he gets his balance to chop down the calf and nearly topple Schnell over. When Schnell gets his bearings, Bontorin greets him with a big left hand. Both men land at the end of huge left hands, and Bontorin smashes his fists into Schnell’s face to no appreciable effect. Schnell gives it right back to him, only for Schnell to absorb a hacking calf kick. Schnell reaches out with a high kick that is nearly caught, and he ducks out of the way like a matador to a charging Bontorin bull. One last head kick from Schnell gets blocked before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Round 2
The flyweights-turned-bantamweights touch gloves, and Bontorin nails him with a right hand coming in. Schnell connects with a leg kick, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a heavier one. Schnell chains a left jab into a short combination, and his jab starts and ends most of his flurries. Bontorin continues to load up, and Schnell ducks a strike to target the body with a thudding right hand. Bontorin smashes his shin into Schnell’s calf, and Schnell is partly compromised but is not showing it as he continues to throw hands. Schnell absorbs a left hand on the chin to pay him back, and both men are largely headhunting with the occasional head kick. Schnell darts out of the way when a soaring strike comes at him, and Schnell peppers Bontorin with several strikes. Bontorin nearly falls over throwing a big punch, and Schnell greets him with a short salvo ending with a body kick. As Bontorin lulls into a slow pattern of throwing bombs, he catches Schnell with a left hand and sends him reeling. Schnell has to gather himself as “Danger” finds himself in grave danger while Bontorin comes at him. Schnell fights his way out of a bad situation with his hands, and he circles out after absorbing some more strikes. Schnell walks through a knee on the chin to throw big hands, and Bontorin winds up and fires back right to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin
Round 3
The two men start out throwing right out of the gate, with a heavy leg kick for Bontorin eaten and responded to by Schnell with a right hand. The pace lulls until the two crash into one another, but they are largely shadowboxing from afar and ducking the other’s strikes. Schnell ignores a leg kick, fires off a left hook, and switches his stances for a second after the kick. Bontorin whiffs with a looping left, and Schnell jabs out to the head and body as he keeps his safe range. The crowd turns on the two as the action has slowed significantly, with neither committing to much. Bontorin charges in, seemingly in response to the booing, and he clips Schnell with a big left. The American backpedals, recovers, and rocks Bontorin coming towards him. Schnell jabs, ducks and weaves, and Bontorin ignores it and pours it on with a wild flurry of power punches. One huge shot dislodges Schnell’s mouthpiece, and Bontorin ducks down to take him down with a double instead of standing and trading as Schnell was firing back. Bontorin sits up to elbow a mouthpiece-less Schnell on the jaw, and the Brazilian works him over with ground-and-pound. Schnell tries to kick off, and he throws his legs up to threaten with a triangle choke, but Bontorin is on top of him in side control now. The crowd begins changing “F--- Jake Paul” for some reason, and Bontorin lays into Schnell with elbows and punches as Schnell still does not have his gumshield. Schnell rolls to his knees and Bontorin pounds on him, and a few final strikes for the Brazilian punctuate the last round that was very close until Round 3.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bontorin (30-27 Bontorin)
The Official Result
Rogerio Bontorin def. Matt Schnell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Schnell is better everywhere: striking, grappling, and submissions. Bontorin is coming off a knockout loss just two months ago, which is too soon. Schnell has good output and can win by knockout or submission. I like the under or fight doesn't go to distance more than the moneyline.
Cody picks Bontorin as an underdog. He believes Bontorin's physical strength and grappling will be the difference. Cody notes that Schnell has a weak chin and is not physically strong, and Bontorin can close the distance, clinch, and take the fight to the ground. He expects Bontorin to win by controlling the fight on the mat.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Schnell, citing his well-rounded game, volume, and point-fighting style. He notes Bontorin's recent knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and questions his recovery. Levi thinks Schnell can keep distance, jab, and make Bontorin gas out. He warns that Schnell's chin is a concern but believes he can outwork Bontorin for a decision win.
The host picks Schnell, trusting his takedown defense and expecting the fight to stay on the feet where he has the advantage in boxing and combinations. He notes Schnell's durability concerns but thinks he can outpoint Bontorin. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges Bontorin's jiu-jitsu is a threat.
Paul picks Schnell, citing his longer, cleaner striking and submission skills. He notes that Bontorin struggles to make 125 and is moving up to 135. Paul believes Schnell's striking advantage and ability to fight from the outside will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Rogério Bontorin, citing Schnell's slick jiu-jitsu and submission game. He believes Bontorin will win the first round with grappling but will slow down, allowing Schnell to take over in rounds two and three with striking. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Schnell.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 27 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 21 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 6 of 17 | 35% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 13 of 22 | 59% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kai Kara-France, citing his striking advantage and ability to scramble if taken down. He notes Bontorin's striking is underwhelming and that Kara-France's 90% takedown defense is backed by good scrambling. He predicts a decision win but mentions he would bet Kara-France if he gets plus money.
Daniel picks Rogério Bontorin to win a decision, citing his toughness, wrestling, and ability to mix in takedowns. He dismisses Bontorin's loss to Ray Borg due to weight miss and elevation, and believes Bontorin is the better grappler and will break Kara-France down the stretch.
Kara-France has speed and better stand-up, with decent takedown defense. Bontorin slows down in later rounds. The host thinks Kara-France will win by decision, but is not highly confident due to Kara-France's past losses to chaotic fighters.
The MMA Guru picks Kai Kara-France to win by first-round TKO. He highlights Kara-France's 90% takedown defense and reach advantage, and believes Bontorin will get frustrated and rush in, getting caught. He notes Bontorin slows down and has been cut before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Borg | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 60 of 74 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 11:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ray Borg | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 19 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 13 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 | |
| 2 | Ray Borg | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 17 of 18 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 | |
| 3 | Ray Borg | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 30 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Borg | 9 of 20 | 45% | 3 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 35 of 45 | 77% | 35 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 21 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ray Borg | 7 of 14 | 50% | 2 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Ray Borg | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 10 of 11 | 90% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ray Borg | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rogério Bontorin | 17 of 21 | 80% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 10 |
Daniel Levi picks Rogério Bontorin for the upset due to his power and strength. He believes Bontorin will win the first two rounds with harder shots, and that Borg may struggle to take him down. He notes Bontorin's heart and jiu-jitsu pedigree, but is not overly confident because Borg could return to his old form.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Raulian Paiva | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Raulian Paiva | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 58 of 98 | 59% | 66 of 107 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 52 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 2:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 1:59 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 22 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogério Bontorin | 58 of 98 | 59% | 21 of 57 | 35 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 78 | 14 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 40 of 77 | 51% | 27 of 62 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 33 of 70 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rogério Bontorin | 14 of 24 | 58% | 4 of 13 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Rogério Bontorin | 18 of 32 | 56% | 9 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rogério Bontorin | 26 of 42 | 61% | 8 of 21 | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 34 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Bibulatov | 15 of 29 | 51% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Matt Schnell - Fight History
The host picks Costa, mostly because of Schnell's durability issues, noting that Costa has power and could knock Schnell out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Schnell might outpoint Costa due to higher volume. He mentions that Costa is taking the fight on short notice, which adds uncertainty.
AJ is extremely confident in Costa, calling him a lock. He cites Costa's well-rounded skills, including Muay Thai, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu, and notes Schnell's decline with 1-4 in last five. AJ expects Costa to finish Schnell, likely by submission in round one, and sees this as a one-sided affair.
Angelo is extremely confident in Alessandro Costa, calling it the easiest breakdown on the card. He notes Costa's power, speed, and leg kicks, while highlighting Matt Schnell's horrendous chin. He believes Costa will knock Schnell out, and says -550 is a 'deal of a lifetime' that will move to -1400 by fight night.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa to win by first round submission. He believes Matt Schnell is washed up, has poor durability, and can't grapple anymore. He sees Costa's power and BJJ as major threats, and expects Schnell to either get knocked out or submitted quickly.
Matt Schnell has a terrible chin, having been knocked out or submitted multiple times. Alessandro Costa has power and will likely knock him out in the first round. Schnell is 36 and has considered retirement, while Costa is a solid finisher.
Cody confidently picks Costa, citing Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and takedown defense. He notes Costa has power and multiple paths to victory, including knockout or ground-and-pound. Schnell's chin and tendency to fade make him a risky bet.
Alessandro Costa is picked because Matt Schnell's chin is unreliable and Costa has power in his hands. Schnell cannot sit in the pocket with Costa or he will get knocked out. Costa also has grappling skills. The host sees no clear path for Schnell and expects Costa to win inside the distance, likely by knockout.
Costa is a much better fighter at this point, with power and solid grappling. Schnell has a glass chin and has been knocked out repeatedly. Costa should finish him in the first round.
Costa is a BJJ black belt with power and strong grappling. Schnell has poor submission defense and gets finished often. Costa should dominate and eventually lock up a submission. The Costa by submission prop at +500 is a good play.
Paul picks Costa by knockout in round 2, noting Costa's power and Schnell's chin issues. He expects Costa to land eventually, as Schnell cannot withstand pressure. He avoids betting the moneyline due to high price but likes the KO prop.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:15 |
| Joseph Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:15 |
| Joseph Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joseph Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-270); Schnell (+220)
Round 1
The year is 2025 and it will be ending in less than two months, and the promotion has the matchmaking wherewithal to jam a pair of very unranked .500 fighters together and plop it on the co-main event slot intentionally. Schnell (17-9, 1 NC; 7-7, 1 NC UFC) has established himself as a “live by the sword, die by the sword” competitor with way more stoppages on his win-loss ledger than decisions. “Bopo” Morales (13-2, 2-2 UFC) is looking to make the most of his second stint with the promotion, having won his return in August by submission to capture the trophy of Season 33 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Taking charge of the cage for this no-nonsense flyweight affair where the winner may not get a number next to their name on Monday is referee Keith Peterson. Gloves are touched.
Schnell moves to the center of the cage, keeping his hands outstretched and measuring with a body kick. Schnell trades hands with his opponent, and Morales clips him with punches and a high kick. “Bopo” crashes forward behind a right hand, and Schnell trips him up and puts him on the ground. Morales quickly reverses him by tripping out the ankle, and he races over to climb into side control just 75 seconds into the round. Morales maintains heavy, tight chest and shoulder pressure, grinding on Schnell’s face with his elbow and otherwise keeping him from scrambling. Schnell throws his legs up high for a possible reversal, and Morales counters by going two-on-one to control Schnell’s left arm. Morales fights out of a triangle choke and hooks up a crucifix position from the back.
Schnell explodes to turn over and claim top position, and “Bopo” answers him flawlessly.
Schnell puts himself in the worst possible place when pursuing a counter takedown, placing his neck practically into the jaws of a guillotine choke setup from the Team Alpha Male fighter. Morales tightens his grip without having to adjust much, and Schnell promptly surrenders.
Commentator Paul Felder promptly questions the strategy of Schnell on the broadcast, raising other questions that came up last week during the infamous Dulgarian vs. Del Valle match. We won’t touch on those here, and will instead note that a member of TAM landed one of their vaunted guillotines, the first in how long? It is the third sub in a row for Morales, and his second back-to-back in the UFC cage.
The Official Result
Joseph Morales def. Matt Schnell R1 2:54 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Joseph Morales because he has good takedowns and Matt Schnell has poor takedown defense. He notes that even though Schnell has good jiu-jitsu, Morales is also good on top and can avoid submissions. He calls the fight straightforward: one guy can get takedowns, the other can't defend them.
Big Brady is very confident in Morales, predicting a submission win via double tap. He notes Schnell has been finished eight times, has poor takedown defense, and a weak chin. He believes Morales will hurt Schnell on the feet, take him down, and lock up a submission, causing Schnell to double tap.
Cody is confident in Morales, citing his improved skills at Team Alpha Male, his dominant TUF run, and his win over Alibi Idris. He notes Schnell's poor durability, cardio, and ring IQ, and believes Morales will find a finish via submission or knockout.
Lucrative James is confident in Joseph Morales. He highlights Morales' superior wrestling and grappling, noting that Matt Schnell has been taken down and submitted throughout his career. He believes Morales can replicate Jimmy Flick's game plan but with better cardio, and predicts a submission finish. He also mentions Morales' good guard and ability to finish from top or bottom.
The host believes Morales is underrated and will showcase dominance in grappling, taking advantage of Schnell's submission defense issues. He expects Morales to find a submission within two rounds.
Paul agrees, highlighting Morales's youth, improved striking and wrestling, and Schnell's tendency to make mistakes and get finished. He thinks Morales can outwork Schnell and that the fight ending inside the distance is a good parlay piece.
The Guru picks Joseph Morales to win by TKO. He believes Morales has better striking, a more reliable chin, and good takedown defense, while Matt Schnell is hittable and prone to getting stunned. He expects Schnell to shoot failing takedowns and get finished on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 88 of 117 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 3:53 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 48 of 60 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 1 | 8:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 33 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 46 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 3 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 22 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:25 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 35 of 61 | 57% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 23 |
| Jimmy Flick | 12 of 20 | 60% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 18 of 25 | 72% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 19 |
| Jimmy Flick | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Matt Schnell | 11 of 21 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Jimmy Flick | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Schnell (-285), Flick (+230)
Round 1
An interesting matchup between flyweight finishers concludes the long prelims. This is a pivotal one for both men, as they are both struggling as of late. Schnell (16-9, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) fell below .500 in the UFC while riding a three-fight skid, with the third of those nearly forcing him into retirement. Like Schnell, Flick (17-8, 2-3 UFC) also offered a retirement that did not stick a few years ago, but with one win in his last four outings, it’s make or break for him. Referee Dan Miragliotta may be needed for the bout’s entire duration, but the judges might be able to kick back and relax when the two 125ers engage. Before searching for the stoppage that may soon come, the fighters cordially touch ‘em up first. Schnell is light on his feet as he ramps up his offense, not letting Flick get off much of his own as he peppers his foe with strikes. Flick walks into a right hand and ducks away to reset, and Schnell splits the guard with a jab. Flick surges into action with three swiping left hands, and he uses the surprise offense to shoot in for a single. Schnell remains on his feet, and Flick chases after him and bullies him to the wall. Flick pursues the takedown, tripping out Schnell’s right leg to place him on his seat. As Schnell scrambles, Flick jumps over to half guard and then the side, where he looks for an arm-triangle choke. Schnell walks off the face, pushing Flick off of him and setting up a potential triangle choke. Schnell loops his left leg around the shoulder, and Flick powers his weight down to stifle the triangle. Schnell drags Flick back to half guard, and he wraps punches around the head and lands a few to the back of the dome as well. Schnell re-closes his guard, and Flick takes advantage of this opportunity by hacking down with elbows. Schnell’s possible triangle setup comes up short as Flick no-sells it, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Flick
Round 2
Schnell comes out of his corner looking for kicks, and his first is a calf kick. Flick comes up top with a right hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Schnell defends with a guillotine choke, but the impact of the two hitting the canvas breaks the grip. Flick lands in half guard and pressures down with his shoulder for the first step of an arm-triangle choke, and he wraps his hands together to further go after it. Flick keeps staying after the arm-triangle, and he allows Schnell to turn to his side so he can slither around and take the back. Flick adjusts his grip and searches for a side-naked choke, but Schnell’s arm is in to give him enough space to survive. Schnell turns using his feet on the wall to fight out of the sub, and Flick is subsequently returned to full guard. “The Brick” imposes his body weight down, and Schnell defends by hooking his leg around Flick’s shoulder for an omoplata. Flick sits up, and he jumps guard for a guillotine choke. Schnell tosses the arm grip aside and starts mounting offense, hammering the submission specialist with punches until Flick uses butterfly hooks to gain some space. When Schnell stands upright, Flick beans him with an upkick. Schnell shakes it off and keeps Flick on the ground by striking him. Flick again postures up and jumps for a guillotine and it is much tighter. “Danger” remains composed and is not concerned of the danger of the sub, and he wriggles his neck free and lashes out with nasty ground-and-pound that splits Flick’s forehead open. Schnell defends with a hard elbow and jumps guard for a guillotine, and Miragliotta thinks the 10-second clapper is the bell again and touches the fighters. Schnell releases the grip, expecting the round is over, and Flick is arguably saved by this mistake as the power guillotine was frighteningly tight. As Schnell rolls Flick over, the horn does sound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Round 3
The third round opens with Schnell willing to engage in the striking, and Flick does the same for a brief spell until he grabs hold of Schnell’s leg for a single. Schnell hits his back and wraps his leg up for a possible triangle, and when that fails, he kicks Flick off of him. Flick appears dazed as blood streams down his face, and Schnell is the fresher of the two and jumps to his feet first. Flick follows him, and he shoots for a double. Schnell defends with a 10-finger guillotine, and Flick appears to tap a single time as he was pushing on Schnell’s leg to thwart the submission. Flick breaks out of the sub and lowers himself to his back, and he turns to his side and sits up to try to put Schnell on his back. Schnell leans against the wall, and Flick still tries to wrap him up with a guillotine choke. Flick stands up with the choke, and he knees Schnell in the chest. Schnell stands so he does not take another knee, and Flick shoots for a double. When Flick transitions to a single, Schnell grips a guillotine and drags Flick to the canvas. “Danger” uses the maneuver to roll over into top position with 85 seconds to spare, and he is quick to take advantage of the position change by elbowing Flick in the cut. Flick scrambles and gives up his back, and Schnell gets both hooks in and instantly fastens a rear-naked choke. Flick fights the top hand to keep breathing, and Schnell briefly considers a neck crank but is more intent on maintaining a body lock than getting the tap. Schnell concludes the matchup with some ground strikes, and the two men hear the final bell and raise their arms in the air.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Schnell (29-28 Schnell)
The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Jimmy Flick via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Matt Schnell, calling him the better fighter despite his compromised chin. He notes that Schnell is a solid striker with good BJJ, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with terrible striking stats (5.43 significant strikes absorbed per minute). He compares the choice to cat poop vs. dog poop, but concludes Schnell is the real fighter.
Big Brady picks Jimmy Flick, citing Matt Schnell's poor chin, takedown defense, and submission defense. He notes Schnell has been submitted three times and has no knockout power. He expects Flick to get a takedown and submit Schnell, predicting a first-round submission. He is shocked Schnell is a -300 favorite.
The host got Flick at plus 200 and believes his unorthodox grappling and jiu-jitsu will allow him to catch Schnell in a submission, despite Flick's absent striking game.
The MMA Guru picks Jimmy Flick as an underdog, despite acknowledging Schnell is technically better. He cannot trust Schnell's chin, as he gets knocked out too often at flyweight. He thinks Flick can make it a dirty fight and has submission ability. He admits his pick is based on a weird feeling and Schnell's chinny reputation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 34 of 78 | 43% | 37 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 0 | 40 of 80 | 50% | 40 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 33 of 77 | 42% | 36 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Durden | 40 of 83 | 48% | 32 of 73 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 38 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 34 of 78 | 43% | 31 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Durden | 40 of 80 | 50% | 32 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 33 of 77 | 42% | 30 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Durden | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Durden (-335), Schnell (+220)
Round 1
Due to the late nature of this flyweight pairing coming together—Durden (16-6-1, 5-4-1 UFC) will serve as a replacement to Alessandro Costa—the two men next will be fighting up in weight at bantamweight. Both short-notice Durden and Schnell (16-8, 1 NC; 6-6, 1 NC UFC) are hovering around the .500 mark in the promotion, so a win may go a long way while a loss could spell disaster. Referee Chris Tognoni will serve as the Octagon ranger for this contest, and gloves are touched to get things going. Durden moves to the center of the cage and is caught with an early uppercut. Durden backs off and finds another way in, and Schnell clips him twice more in a speedy exchange. Schnell points at him but does not capitalize on hurting and reddening Durden, instead allowing Durden to walk him down. Durden elects to fight to his disadvantage, brawling wildly and backing Schnell up a big. Durden lands several body shots until Schnell fires back, and Schnell’s attacks are more powerful and result in Durden thinking twice. Durden lands a right and eats two rights back. Durden unleashes a fury of punches, and Schnell shakes him up with furious counters that are heavier and faster. Durden wipes his hands and blinks it out, and he backs away as Schnell kicks him in the ribs. Durden wings a few punches that come up short, and Schnell times an outside leg kick that buckles the knee. Durden catches his man on the end of a left hand, and Schnell fires back with a right. Durden clubs him with a hard right, and Schnell skirts to the side and prepares an uppercut that lands on the nose. Schnell clacks the front leg again, and he allows Durden to overswing so he can counter effectively. Durden still manages to get off his right hand a few times, and Schnell’s head movement and footwork keeps him from absorbing any flush. Schnell snipes his man a few times until Durden pushes out a front kick to slow him down. Schnell ducks a head kick that skims his hair, and the two throw caution to the wind and brawl again. Schnell gets tagged with a left hand on the nose, and he winds up and retorts with a flurry of fists. Durden connects at the end of a right hand that cuts Schnell’s eyebrow, and Schnell bites down on his gumshield and blasts Durden in the face with an overhand right. Durden spins with a wheel kick that brushes past his opponent, and Schnell gathers his thoughts and punches his way into a short combo. They trade left hands, and Schnell lands three while Durden gets off two. The two trade right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Durden
Round 2
The fighters are ready to pick up right where they left off, and after a few low kicks, Schnell lands a big left hand. After connecting, Schnell shoots in with a telegraphed takedown, and Durden’s eyes go wide and he grins as he snatches hold of a guillotine choke. Schnell twists around, and Durden chains his submission into a ninja choke. When “Danger” keeps turning, he finds himself in even graver danger, as Durden locks the choke down and turns Schnell to his back. As soon as Schnell is on his back, he taps with both hands in a panic as the submission was likely to put his lights out. Durden releases the choke when Tognoni gets between them and goes over to the cage to shout at someone in the audience. His team manages to calm him down, and he celebrates his handiwork with his wife and corner. While Durden gives his post-fight interview, Schnell removes his gloves and places them in the center of the cage to signal his retirement. Instead of looking for a moment on the mic, Schnell departs the cage, overcome with emotion.
The Official Result
Cody Durden def. Matt Schnell R2 0:29 via Submission (Ninja Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Durden (referred to as Alexandre Costa) because he is a solid striker with real power, good takedown defense, and durability, while Matt Schnell has been in too many wars and his chin is failing. He believes Costa will blast Schnell's legs and crack him in the head, leading to a knockout. He notes that Schnell is not dangerous enough to put Costa away.
Big Brady picks Cody Durden to win by knockout. He notes Durden is stepping in on short notice but looked career-best in his last fight before getting caught. Brady believes Durden's striking will be the difference and that he just needs to land one clean shot. He warns about Schnell's dangerous grappling but thinks Durden will avoid the ground and finish the fight inside the distance.
Cody picks Schnell, arguing that Durden's short notice, weight cut issues, and lack of corner are major red flags. He notes Schnell's superior experience and cardio, but admits Durden's power and aggression could end it early. He sees value at +250 but is not highly confident.
Daniel is biased as a friend of Durden, but he believes Durden's power and Schnell's weak chin will be the deciding factor. He acknowledges Schnell is well-rounded and technical, but thinks Durden will eventually land a knockout. He notes that Schnell has been knocked out in recent fights and that Durden is aware of Schnell's chin. Despite the short notice, Daniel is confident Durden will get the win.
Paul is intrigued by Schnell at +250, noting Durden is taking the fight on a week's notice, moving up to 135 lbs, and may not have a coach. He acknowledges Schnell's chin issues but believes his experience and cardio advantage could pay off if he survives early. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and leans Schnell.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Cody Durden. He calls Schnell the 'chiniest fighter in UFC history' but believes Alexandro Costa is explosive and powerful. He notes Schnell got wobbled by Sumudaerji and predicts Costa will put him away brutally in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 25 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 23 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 22 of 78 | 28% | 18 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 74 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 20 of 69 | 28% | 17 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 32 of 67 | 47% | 23 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-325), Schnell (+260)
Round 1
It is all action on the main card, which begins with a flashy flyweight affair between wild man Schnell (16-7, 1 NC; 6-5, 1 NC UFC) and surging up-and-comer Erceg (11-1, 2-0 UFC). The Fortis MMA fighter has not fared well as of late, but his most recent win was a spectacular technical submission over Su Mudaerji. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Chris Tognoni, who starts the fight as the speedy gentlemen clap hands together. Schnell immediately gets behind his jab, flicking it out repeatedly to back the once-beaten Erceg away. Schnell connects with a series of punches to shake up the Aussie, and he crowds him and eventually clinches with him and uses an elbow on the inside. Erceg separates, and on the break, he lands a strike to open a cut on the top of Schnell’s left eyebrow. Schnell wings punches, and Erceg sees them coming and dodges before jabbing that already damaged eye. Erceg ducks a punch and misses on a counter, and his jab continues to mark up Schnell’s face. Schnell tries for a knee on the inside when they get up close, and Erceg backs him off with two punches to splatter some blood on Schnell’s cheek. Erceg sinks in a leg kick and slides away, and he puts a one-two on the mark and slides to the side to evade the counter. Schnell swings hard but does not land flush, while Erceg is much tighter and more compact. Schnell pushes out his own jab, and he bloodies the nose of his opponent, but his own eye is turning into a crime scene. Erceg gets in a left and pounds Schnell on the cheek with a heavy right, and Schnell wears it well and jabs his way back out. Erceg staggers his foe with a right hand, and cracks him a second time as Schnell backpedals. Erceg wades in a little too carelessly, and he gets rocked by a fiery right hand from “Danger.” Schnell cracks Erceg again with a series of punches, and Erceg defends by shooting. Schnell sprawls perfectly and pops back up without issue, but Erceg bust him in the chops with a right hand. The Aussie connects with a body kick shortly thereafter, and a one-two and a snappy jab find Schnell’s face before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle and touch ‘em up, and Schnell is ready and rearing to go. He starts off with a pair of low kicks and a combination, and he reaches a right hand around the jab.
Erceg continues to jab, and as Schnell comes loaded for bear, “Astro Boy” rips a right to the body and a left that sends Schnell into orbit. There is no need for anything else from the Aussie, and Tognoni intervenes just in case before tending to the unconscious flyweight.
Schnell comes to, and Erceg has now earned the second knockout of his professional career—doing so against one of the best foes he could in a top-ranked Schnell.
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Matt Schnell R2 0:26 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, noting his slick grappling and ability to scramble. He thinks Erceg will use his length and grappling to win, despite not looking like a professional fighter. He acknowledges Matt Schnell's toughness but believes Erceg will get the win, possibly by decision.
Big Brady picks Erceg to win by second-round submission. He worries about Schnell's chin and durability, noting Schnell has been finished in 6 of 7 losses and has taken massive damage. He thinks Erceg will hurt Schnell and then submit him. He acknowledges Schnell's grappling but believes his durability is a major issue.
Cody picks Erceg, emphasizing Schnell's poor durability and history of getting knocked down. He notes that Erceg is a scrappy fighter with good grappling and volume, and that Schnell's best chance is a Hail Mary submission. Cody believes Erceg will eventually hurt Schnell and finish him, possibly in the middle rounds. He disagrees with the over, leaning towards the fight not going the distance.
Erceg is too clean and precise with his striking for Schnell, who lacks the reaction time to stop him. Erceg should land straight shots down the pipe, drop Schnell, and find the finish. Schnell has durability issues and has been in trouble in fights he even won. Erceg's BJJ is also a threat, but the host prefers a TKO finish. The under 1.5 rounds is plus money, and Erceg inside the distance is the play.
Paul picks Erceg and likes the over 1.5 rounds at -130. He notes Erceg is not a big power puncher but has a high pace and good grappling. He thinks Schnell is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but Erceg may not have the power to finish early, making the over likely. He mentions Schnell's durability issues but believes Erceg will wear him down.
The MMA Guru picks Erceg but is not entirely confident. He criticizes Schnell's chin and submission defense, saying he taps easily. He expects Erceg to outdamage Schnell over a decision, possibly dropping him, but notes Erceg's finishing instincts are not great. He predicts a decision win for Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 | 32 of 42 | 76% | 40 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 14 of 43 | 32% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 21 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 32 of 42 | 76% | 23 of 31 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Matt Schnell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 16 of 50 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Matt Schnell | 14 of 43 | 32% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 15 | 86% | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Schnell | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicolau (-380), Schnell (+310)
Round 1
As the flyweight division keeps churning out rematch after rematch for Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, contenders has started to emerge and cement themselves in the division once that logjam finally ends. Both Nicolau (18-2-1, 6-1 UFC) and the cleanly shaven Schnell (16-6, 1 NC; 6-4, 1 NC UFC) aim to upset the apple cart and become the next possible challenger, and a place among the top five in the weight class might be for the taking here. The 125ers touch gloves while referee Keith Peterson laces his nonsenseless running shoes, and instead Schnell starts off the fight with instant aggression. Schnell throws a kick and spins around to reset when it misses, and Nicolau is relegated to outside movement. Schnell pushes in with a low kick, and Nicolau eventually responds with one as Schnell swipes at him with two punches. Schnell looks to get on the inside with short left hooks, and Nicolau retreats. The crowd has already grown restless less than two minutes in due to the lack of activity from either fighter. Nicolau kicks the body, and Schnell comes out swinging with four punches that mostly come up hitting air. The Brazilian gets off a single low kick, and the short punches that Schnell has landed have marked up the temple of his opponent. Nicolau darts for with a left hand, and Schnell takes it on the chin and continues to cut Nicolau off. Out of nowhere, Nicolau rushes in with a left hook that knocks Schnell over, and he leaps on top to try to finish the job with elbows, Schnell gathers his thoughts and explodes back to his feet, and Nicolau aims another left hand on the dome. The Brazilian kicks low while Schnell blinks it out, and he dings Schnell with two massive punches as Schnell bears down on him. Schnell gets off four punches after dodging a home-run left hook, and Nicolau spins with a back kick and turns around to kick the side. Nicolau slaps a single calf kick home, and he circles away until the bell sounds and the crowd hammers them with boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 2
They touch gloves to start off the round, and Schnell is a little more aggressive as he comes out faster towards his opponent. This requires Nicolau to move away quicker as well, and Schnell cannot quite pin him down. Nicolau steps in with a left hand like the last round, and this would have likely dropped Schnell again but for Nicolau’s simultaneous tackle to push Schnell to the canvas. Schnell closes his guard, with his wits about him again, and Nicolau lands a few shots before bailing on the position and standing up. Schnell advances, and once more he walks into a blistering left hand that dumps him to the ground. “The Danger” is in the danger zone, but he wills himself back into the fight and jumps back up once more. Schnell looks to get one back, and he wings a looping left hand.
As he does, Nicolau beats him to the punch with an overhand right that clonks his foe on the side of his head and puts Schnell down, likely once and for all. Nicolau leaps down to pummel the grounded Schnell, with powerful and unrelenting punches to the side of the head until Schnell collapses to his stomach.
This is the sign that Peterson needs to intervene, as Schnell is done and possibly out after a rough go of it tonight. The Brazilian flyweight contender has now won six in a row, including four straight inside the Octagon, and he is in prime position for a top fight in his division.
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Matt Schnell R2 1:44 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter. He notes Nicolau has technical striking and competent grappling, while Schnell is a tough counter-striker with slick BJJ but struggles to get takedowns. He acknowledges Schnell's incredible comeback win but says he can't assume Schnell will rise from the dead every fight. He will wait for prop bets.
Big Brady is confident in Nicolau, citing Schnell's poor chin (finished five times) and Nicolau's power (five knockdowns in UFC) and excellent takedown defense (93%). He expects Schnell to fight recklessly and get knocked out in the first round, though he notes Nicolau hasn't finished anyone in the UFC recently but believes the finish is very live.
Cody picks Nicolau but strongly dislikes the -380 line. He highlights Nicolau's low output and close fights, and Schnell's chin but also his volume. He thinks the line is trappy and sees Schnell as a live dog.
Daniel Levi picks Nicolau, citing his better boxing technique, Jiu-Jitsu, and maturity compared to Schnell. He notes Schnell's chin is a weakness and that Nicolau will either finish or ride out a decision. He is not interested at the minus-400 price.
The host picks Nicolau to win inside the distance, noting that Schnell has durability issues and Nicolau has enough power to finish him. He is wary of the minus 365 moneyline but likes the under 2.5 rounds or Nicolau inside the distance. He acknowledges Schnell is often overlooked but believes Nicolau will get his hand raised.
Paul picks Nicolau but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Nicolau's low output and close decisions, and Schnell's chin issues. He thinks Nicolau will win but won't bet it, and sees value on Schnell as a dog.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, considering him underrated. He notes Nicolau has beaten higher-level opponents like David Dvorak and Tim Elliott, while Schnell has taken damage and had close fights. He predicts Nicolau will find a finish in the second round with a body-head combo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 47 of 81 | 58% | 79 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 1 | 2:40 |
| Sumudaerji | 1 | 58 of 83 | 69% | 67 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 2:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 27 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:03 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 19 of 23 | 82% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:19 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 0 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 52 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Sumudaerji | 1 | 39 of 60 | 65% | 39 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schnell | 47 of 81 | 58% | 36 of 70 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 40 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 29 |
| Sumudaerji | 58 of 83 | 69% | 37 of 61 | 10 of 11 | 11 of 11 | 35 of 53 | 13 of 19 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Schnell | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 |
| Sumudaerji | 19 of 23 | 82% | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Matt Schnell | 34 of 52 | 65% | 28 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 9 of 12 | 17 of 20 |
| Sumudaerji | 39 of 60 | 65% | 32 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 37 | 13 of 19 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Su Mudaerji (-260), Schnell (+220)
Round 1
This upcoming 125-pound matchup will almost certainly give referee Jacob Montalvo a good workout with the movement that Schnell (15-6, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC) and his Chinese counterpart Mudaerji (16-4, 3-1 UFC) employ. This fast-paced fight between finish-friendly and fleet of foot flyweights is first friendly as the fighters’ fists meet. Mudaerji starts with a chopping low kick that surprises Schnell, and it stops Schnell from landing a pair of punches he intends to smack Mudaerji with. Schnell goes after a few leg kicks of his own, and Mudaerji answers with two more. Mudaerji circles on the outside and slaps away a front kick, and he gets countered with a left hook when aiming a kick. The leg kicks continue to come, and Schnell checks one and points at his opponent. Mudaerji is not slowed from striking with these, and Schnell is having difficulty pinning him down. Schnell ducks a punch and changes levels to hit a takedown. In an instant, Schnell moves right to full mount, and he starts releasing heavy right hands and elbows. Mudaerji turns to his knees and allows Schnell to take his back. Mudaerji turns with all of his might, and he manages to move through the tight body triangle and claim top position. Mudaerji holds his hand on Schnell’s mouth to disrupt the breathing, and Schnell closes his guard tight when he cannot toss his legs up in pursuit of a triangle. Schnell bucks his opponent off of him, and Mudaerji climbs down into the guard and straight into a triangle choke. When Mudaerji moves his way out of the position, Schnell grabs the arm and shoulder to hunt for an omoplata. Mudaerji lifts Schnell all the way up and powerbombs him to break the grip, but Schnell winds up on top. “Danger” puts Schnell in the Danger Zone with vicious ground-and-pound, and he shakes Mudaerji up but takes a few hacking elbows from Mudaerji off his back. Schnell stacks Mudaerji up and scores a single punch before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Schnell
Round 2
Mudaerji comes out throwing fire, and an inside low kick slides up into Schnell’s cup. Schnell drops to a knee, and Montalvo calls time to allow him to recover for about a minute. Mudaerji is warned through a translator, and the two flyweights get back to it. They start throwing fire, and Mudaerji clips Schnell and nearly drops Schnell to his knees. Schnell gathers himself but is still off-balance, as he is taking punishment from the Chinese fighter. The left hand from Mudaerji nails Schnell, and Schnell replies with a leg kick that trips Mudaerji up. When back on his feet again, Mudaerji splits the guard with a straight left hand that stuns Schnell. Mudaerji celebrates this by firing off another, and this one puts Schnell down on the canvas. Schnell looks to turn things around with a takedown effort, but Mudaerji backs off and lets him back up so that he can continue bombing. Mudaerji rails Schnell with a brutal elbow, and Schnell is hurt badly and continues to take punishment. Mudaerji unloads with impunity, throwing punches, knees and elbows, and Schnell is bent over and very possibly out on his feet. Montalvo is watching on closely, and when Schnell is nearly at the end of his rope, he fires off a right hand that shakes Mudaerji up. Mudaerji continues to work Schnell over, and Schnell eats the strikes and counters effectively to blast Mudaerji. It is now Mudaerji who is on the rocks, and when Mudaerji overswings, Schnell takes him down and moves straight into mount. Schnell drops down an elbow, and commentator Daniel Cormier shrieks with a sound that echoes through the arena. Schnell batters Mudaerji with unanswered strikes, punching and elbowing Mudaerji’s face off, and Mudaerji is bloodied and beaten. Mudaerji somehow keeps his wits about him to flip Schnell over, but Schnell throws his legs up for a triangle choke.
Mudaerji starts slugging from on top, but danger danger, high voltage, “Danger” locks down that choke and Mudaerji is in dire trouble. Schnell slashes from his back to rip Mudaerji’s face open and cause blood to splatter all around them. Schnell adjusts the triangle choke up high, and he pulls down on the neck to completely secure it. Mudaerji is still with it and ready to keep fighting…until he isn’t anymore, as he goes out on his shield completely, blood still leaking from his now-unconscious person.
Montalvo recognizes that Mudaerji is sleeping on the job and steps in to break them up, awarding Schnell the absolutely incredible comeback and putting a stamp on what should go down as an instant contender for the best round of the year. What a terrific fight, one that went everywhere and had something for everybody. The mere write-up of this battle does not remotely do it justice, and this is a must-see match that also could be contention for “Fight of the Year” as well. Outstanding.
The Official Result
Matt Schnell def. Su Mudaerji R2 4:24 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Sumudaerji, citing his forward pressure and volume. He notes Schnell's counter-striking and BJJ, but believes Sumudaerji's style will impose itself. He thinks the fight should be closer than the odds suggest and considers a plus 3.5 bet on Schnell.
Big Brady picks Sumudaerji to win by knockout, likely in the second round. He states that Sumudaerji is the better striker and more durable, while Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. He notes that Schnell could win if he wrestles, but he doesn't expect Schnell to do so. He predicts a knockout finish.
Cody picks Schnell as an underdog, arguing that Sumudaerji's four losses are all by submission and he has not faced a grappler since his debut. He notes Schnell's improved chin and grappling, including submissions off his back. Cody believes if the fight hits the ground, Schnell has a big advantage, and the -270 line on Sumudaerji is too high given his unproven ground game.
Daniel Levi picks Sumudaerji, viewing it as a prospect test. He notes Sumudaerji's talent and improvements after a long layoff, while Schnell has durability issues and has been knocked out before. Levi expects Sumudaerji to win, possibly by finish, but acknowledges Schnell's guillotine threat and the question of Sumudaerji's ceiling.
Paul picks Sumudaerji, believing his power and striking will be too much for Schnell's suspect chin. He notes that Sumudaerji has knocked out opponents quickly and that Schnell has been knocked out multiple times. However, he admits the -270 line is steep and that he is not betting it himself, but he expects Sumudaerji to win by KO in the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji over Matt Schnell, citing Schnell's weak chin and poor submission defense. He notes Sumudaerji's elusiveness and range, and believes he will TKO Schnell in the second round. He also mentions Schnell's recent loss to Brandon Royval and his tendency to get finished in spectacular fashion.
Expert Picks (6)
Schnell is better everywhere: striking, grappling, and submissions. Bontorin is coming off a knockout loss just two months ago, which is too soon. Schnell has good output and can win by knockout or submission. I like the under or fight doesn't go to distance more than the moneyline.
Cody picks Bontorin as an underdog. He believes Bontorin's physical strength and grappling will be the difference. Cody notes that Schnell has a weak chin and is not physically strong, and Bontorin can close the distance, clinch, and take the fight to the ground. He expects Bontorin to win by controlling the fight on the mat.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Schnell, citing his well-rounded game, volume, and point-fighting style. He notes Bontorin's recent knockout loss to Kai Kara-France and questions his recovery. Levi thinks Schnell can keep distance, jab, and make Bontorin gas out. He warns that Schnell's chin is a concern but believes he can outwork Bontorin for a decision win.
The host picks Schnell, trusting his takedown defense and expecting the fight to stay on the feet where he has the advantage in boxing and combinations. He notes Schnell's durability concerns but thinks he can outpoint Bontorin. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges Bontorin's jiu-jitsu is a threat.
Paul picks Schnell, citing his longer, cleaner striking and submission skills. He notes that Bontorin struggles to make 125 and is moving up to 135. Paul believes Schnell's striking advantage and ability to fight from the outside will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Schnell over Rogério Bontorin, citing Schnell's slick jiu-jitsu and submission game. He believes Bontorin will win the first round with grappling but will slow down, allowing Schnell to take over in rounds two and three with striking. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision for Schnell.
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