Fight card

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

October 05, 2024 Delta Center Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S.
Alex Pereira

Alex Pereira W

13-3
TKO (punches) R4 4:32
Fight 1 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Alex Pereira

No odds available.

Khalil Rountree Jr.

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Alex Pereira

Age38
Height6' 4"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Khalil Rountree Jr.

Age36
Height6' 1"
Reach76.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Alex Pereira

5.16SLpM
62.0%Str. Acc.
3.5SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
0.11TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
79.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Khalil Rountree Jr.

3.88SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.33SApM
49.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
58.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Angelo picks Alex Pereira to win, citing his power, size, and reach advantage. He acknowledges Khalil Rountree is the most dangerous striker Pereira has faced, with lightning speed and power, but believes Pereira's kickboxing pedigree and preparation at elevation will prevail. He notes the line is juiced at -550 and does not recommend a bet at those odds, but is confident in the win. He also expresses a dream scenario of Pereira moving up to heavyweight.

Line is juiced at -550, no bet recommended
"Alex P is the more powerful Striker... I have to pick him to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Big Brady picks Alex Pereira to win by second-round knockout, noting that Rountree has said he won't wrestle and will strike. He believes Pereira is the better striker and has been dominant in title defenses. He acknowledges Rountree hits hard and Pereira has been knocked out before, but still favors Pereira strongly.

second round knockout
"I got to go I got to go prair here give me PR to win this fight by second round knockout I think it's going be a fun fight for as long as it last but yeah give …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Cody picks Pereira because of his superior striking credentials, length, and technique. He notes that Rountree has a puncher's chance but lacks wrestling, and Pereira's path to victory is clear. He also mentions that Pereira could mix in takedowns but expects a standup fight.

"I'm going to take Alex Pereira here."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Connor also picks Pereira, agreeing with Zane's assessment. He emphasizes that Rountree's best chance is a counter right hook from southpaw, but Pereira is defensively aware and can lure Rountree into coming forward. Connor notes that Pereira's low kicks and jab will force Rountree to change his approach, and that Rountree's clinch is powerful but Pereira is the bigger clinch fighter.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I think roundtree makes more sense than Nikita Krylov who's ranked above him or volkan uzdimir who's ranked above him. And i'd certainly rather see him in there than alexander rakic or magma at uncle i …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland picks Alex Pereira. He notes that Pereira is a kickboxing champion who has beaten elite competition. He believes Rountree cannot out-technique Pereira and that his only path to victory is a power shot landing. Vreeland thinks Pereira will pick Rountree apart and likely finish him early, suggesting the under 1.5 rounds at +140 is a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds +140
"I don't think you can out technical Alex P like I I don't think you can go in like I said before like maybe that you're gonna have to try to surprise him some way but like he's …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Daniel Vreeland believes Alex Pereira's left hook and calf kicks will be too much for Khalil Rountree Jr. He notes that Rountree swings wide and wild, leaving openings for Pereira's counter left hook. Vreeland also points out Pereira's black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and his takedown against Adesanya as advantages. He acknowledges Rountree's power but thinks Pereira's experience against top competition will prevail.

"I think that khil swings a little bit too wide and I think that check or counter left hook is going to be there waiting for him and I think Alex is gonna get another knockout"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Jeff Fox picks Alex Pereira. He notes that this is a good style matchup for Pereira, as Rountree has no way to make it a grappling fight. Fox believes Pereira will win a kickboxing fight and likely knock Rountree out. He appreciates that Pereira takes any fight and finishes opponents.

"I think P definitely wins a kickboxing fight and that's what this is going to be yeah I don't think Rountree has any way to make this a grappling fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alex Pereira

The host thinks the line is a bit wide considering the fight takes place in the striking realm and Rountree has knockout power. However, he leans with Pereira's technical advantages, expecting him to keep the fight at distance and counter effectively, eventually landing a big shot (likely his left hook) to finish Rountree within two rounds.

line is a little bit wide for my liking
"I will still be leaning with the technical advantages that Pereira has and I think he'll eventually get khil to walk into a big shot probably his pass left hook look for Pereira to keep this fight at …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Paul picks Pereira, acknowledging Rountree's power and improvements but emphasizing Pereira's elite striking and the fact that Rountree has never attempted a takedown in the UFC. He believes Pereira's experience and technique will prevail.

"we're both picking the champ to retain"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Alex Pereira to KO Khalil Rountree Jr. in the first round. He dismisses Rountree's hype, noting his close fight with Anthony Smith and robbery win over Jacoby. He believes Pereira's composure, low kicks, and body work will be too much, and that Rountree will get caught with a left hook. He also mentions Pereira's recent injury revelation but still expects a dominant win.

"I'm going with Alex Pereira by KO in the first round I'm going to say he just sleeps kill with a left hook"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alex Pereira

Zane picks Pereira confidently, citing Pereira's ability to chew up Rountree with low kicks from long range and work his jab. He notes that Rountree's counter-punching is passive and subtractive, relying on waiting for a big mistake rather than forcing opportunities. Zane also points out that Rountree struggles under pressure and that Pereira's size and clinch work will be problematic for Rountree.

Pereira is a big favorite at -493; Rountree opened at +352 and is now +383. Zane feels the odds are correct but notes Pereira's fights can be razor-edge despite his knockouts.
"I am uh going to confidently pick pareda all the same. Yeah, I just don't I don't think roundtree is at his best under pressure like that, yeah."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Julianna Peña

Julianna Peña W

13-6
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 48–47) R5 5:00
Fight 2 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Julianna Peña

No odds available.

Raquel Pennington

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Julianna Peña

Age36
Height5' 6"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Raquel Pennington

Age37
Height5' 7"
Reach67.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Julianna Peña

3.1SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
2.56SApM
57.0%Str. Def.
1.7TD Avg
54.0%TD Acc.
24.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Raquel Pennington

4.1SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.32SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
27.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Angelo picks Raquel Pennington to win by grinding against the cage, using her technical striking and control. He notes Julianna Peña is coming off a two-year layoff and a severe beating, which often leads to poor performances. He believes Pennington's durability and preparation at elevation will be key, and that Peña's chaotic style won't be enough. He also mentions that Pennington's wife Tisha Torres fights earlier, which could affect her mentally if Tisha loses.

"Rocko Pennington is the pick and I'm fairly confident that she gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Big Brady picks Raquel Pennington, citing her recent activity and impressive wins over Macy Chiasson, Ketlen Vieira, and Mayra Bueno Silva. He notes Peña has been inactive for two years and lost to Amanda Nunes. He believes Pennington is the better striker and has strong clinch work, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here and I think Pennington is going to win this fight and win it probably probably by decision Pennington Pennington by decision more active better fighter give me Pennington"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Cody picks Pennington due to Peña's two-year layoff, age, and tendency to fatigue. He highlights Pennington's durability, volume striking, and ability to fight five rounds. He expects Pennington to pressure Peña against the cage and win a decision.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"I will take Ral Pennington"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Connor picks Pennington, but hesitantly. He thinks Pennington's crafty boxing and durability will allow her to survive Peña's initial onslaught and win rounds in the clinch. He notes that Pennington is comfortable in long clinches and can land knees and front headlock chokes. However, he acknowledges Peña's athleticism and aggression make it a tough fight.

Same odds commentary.
"I think she is going to end up in a lot of long clinches with rocky which is a position where rocky is very comfortable even against stronger women."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Raquel Pennington. He cites multiple factors: Pennington trains at elevation and has amazing cardio, while Peña has not fought since July 2022 and has a history of poor preparation for elevation. Vreeland notes that Pennington's style is exhausting to fight, as seen in her win over Mayra Bueno Silva. He also points out that Pennington's boxing looked good in her last fight, while Peña's boxing looked terrible with wild swings. He believes Pennington will grind out a win, likely by decision or late TKO.

Pennington by TKO +2000
"I'm going Raquel Pennington yes sir"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Raquel Pennington, citing her superior boxing and clinch work. He believes Pennington can keep the fight standing and piece up Peña, possibly even choking her out if Peña shoots a sloppy takedown. He is not confident in Peña's evolution since her loss to Amanda Nunes and thinks Pennington's takedown defense will be key.

"I do lean Pennington man if she can keep this fight standing she's gonna box this girl up even piece her up in the clinch with knees and elbows"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Jeff Fox picks Raquel Pennington. He agrees with Vreeland on the elevation advantage and Peña's layoff. He notes that Pennington is a tough out, especially if Peña doesn't properly prepare. Fox thinks Pennington will grind out a win, though it may not be pretty.

Pennington by decision +110
"I'm in on all of that as well Raquel Pennington she's a tough out especially if you're not going to properly prepare for it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Julianna Peña

The host thinks Peña is the overall better fighter and that her wrestling advantage will nullify Pennington's game. He believes people are overlooking Peña due to her loss to Amanda Nunes, but notes Pennington is nowhere near Nunes's level. He expects Peña to lean on her wrestling and grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes.

submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes
"look for Peña to go out there lean on her wrestling lean on her grappling and open up a submission opportunity within 10 to 15 minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Peña's two-year layoff and Pennington's cardio advantage. He notes Pennington's recent procedure as a minor concern but believes her durability and wrestling will carry her to a decision win.

Raquel Pennington by decision
"Pennington probably Pennington by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Raquel Pennington

The MMA Guru picks Raquel Pennington over Julianna Peña, citing Peña's long layoff (over two years) and inactivity. He notes Pennington trains at altitude and has a cage control game. He acknowledges Peña's win over Nunes but questions her deserving a title shot. He is not confident, calling it a tough pick, but goes with Pennington due to Peña's ring rust.

"I'm going to go Raquel Pennington you guys Juliana Pena hasn't been in she's 10 and five fighting for she's 35 years old who are you like what are you doing go away"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julianna Peña

Zane picks Peña, arguing that Pennington is slow-footed and will get stuck on the cage, allowing Peña to impose her physicality and wrestling. He believes Peña's aggression and strength will overwhelm Pennington, despite Pennington's improved boxing and durability. Zane thinks Peña will win the belt and set up a fight with Kayla Harrison.

Peña opened at +145, currently +147. Pennington opened at -185, now -166.
"So i'm just i'm gonna take penia i'm gonna take penia to go out and be her absolute most annoying self and win this belt and give an indecipherable interview afterward."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista W

17-3
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Bantamweight Completed

Mario Bautista

No odds available.

José Aldo

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Mario Bautista

Age32
Height5' 9"
Reach69.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

José Aldo

Age39
Height5' 7"
Reach70"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mario Bautista

5.3SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.98SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
38.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - José Aldo

3.65SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.81SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
0.47TD Avg
51.0%TD Acc.
92.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Roman Dolidze

Roman Dolidze W

15-5
TKO (corner stoppage) R1 5:00
Fight 4 VS Middleweight Completed

Roman Dolidze

No odds available.

Kevin Holland

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Roman Dolidze

Age37
Height6' 2"
Reach76.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Kevin Holland

Age33
Height6' 3"
Reach81.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Roman Dolidze

3.19SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.71SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.16TD Avg
43.0%TD Acc.
32.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Kevin Holland

4.26SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.22SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.83TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
56.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.

Bet on Roman Dolidze inside the distance, decision no action
"Roman L is going to be the pick... I'm betting inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.

submission, second round
"I'm liking delit here I think um I'm going to go with delid by submission here in the second round but I I could also see a scenario where you know the Striking is competitive if not favors …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.

"I'm actually going to go with Kevin Holland"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm gonna pick roman dulce. Yeah in a really really ugly fight really frustrating."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.

Dolidze by submission +1400
"I will take Roman Dolidze, I think he gets the ground game going and I know Holland hasn't been submitted in a while and I know Dolidze hasn't had a submission in a while but what do you …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.

"I think Roman Del wants the grown man this guy Pin him up against the fence makes him those takedowns I think he can do that"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.

"I think Holland I'm afraid he's gonna like get underneath him on the ground and just do what he does lying on his back hopefully he does not do that because he's good enough grappling not to have …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.

surprised that the line is as close as it is
"I'm kind of surprised that the line is as close as it is I think the Reckless fighting style of Del will lead him into getting picked apart by Kevin Holland"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.

"I bet a little bit of deletes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.

"I'm going to go Roman delzy I like Holland at welterweight I like Holland at welterweight they're a bit better down there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.

Holland opened at -142, now -137. Dolidze opened at +127, now +123. Zane is surprised Holland is favored.
"Gotta pick dulcie. He's big and strong and kevin will let him tie up and this will be that uh, you know."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Kayla Harrison

Kayla Harrison W

19-1
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 5 VS Women's Bantamweight Completed

Kayla Harrison

No odds available.

Ketlen Vieira

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Kayla Harrison

Age35
Height5' 8"
Reach66.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Ketlen Vieira

Age34
Height5' 8"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Kayla Harrison

4.29SLpM
62.0%Str. Acc.
1.1SApM
66.0%Str. Def.
2.84TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ketlen Vieira

2.76SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
3.75SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
1.33TD Avg
44.0%TD Acc.
90.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Angelo picks Kayla Harrison to dominate, citing her Olympic gold medal judo and physical strength. He notes Ketlen Vieira relies on being big and strong to bully opponents, but that won't work against Harrison. He expects Harrison to toss Vieira and control the fight. He also suggests looking at the under 2.5 rounds line for potential value.

Look at under 2.5 rounds line for value
"Kayla Harrison dominates here she's absolutely the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Big Brady picks Kayla Harrison confidently, acknowledging Vieira is solid but believes Harrison is on a different level. He expects Harrison's judo to overcome Vieira's takedown defense, and once on top, Harrison will control and win a decision, possibly with a finish. He notes the weight cut is something to monitor.

"I'll go Kayla Harrison to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Cody picks Harrison, believing her Judo and ground-and-pound will be effective. He acknowledges Vieira's takedown defense and altitude concerns but thinks Harrison's UFC debut win over Holly Holm showed her potential. He warns against betting the heavy favorite.

"Harrison will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Connor also picks Harrison, echoing Zane's reasoning. He notes that Vieira has never believed in her hands since being knocked out by Raquel Pennington and relies on clinch work, which plays into Harrison's strengths. Connor expects Harrison to win impressively and set up a title fight.

Same odds commentary.
"Hey, if they're if they're hoping for a pania win that then sets up harrison in a uh for a title fight where that actually has like not just two b sides."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland picks Kayla Harrison. He admits he hasn't been the biggest Harrison fan and has faded her before, but notes that her one-dimensional grappling is so elite that it doesn't matter. He points out that Harrison's takedown game is elite and she is physically very strong for the weight class, even though she is cutting a lot of weight. He believes she will pile things on and get a win, possibly by submission.

Harrison by submission +350
"I like Kayla Harrison here I think we see her absolutely pile things on"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Kayla Harrison, calling her a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He notes that Harrison's drop to 135 has made her more explosive and athletic. While Vieira has 92% takedown defense, Vreeland believes Harrison's Judo and wrestling will overcome that. He expects Harrison to win and secure a title shot, though he is unsure of the method.

"Kayla Harrison coming out here getting this win securing a title shot"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Jeff Fox picks Kayla Harrison. He notes that Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo and has elite grappling. He believes her takedown game and physical strength will be too much for Ketlen Vieira, even though Vieira has a grappling base. Fox thinks Harrison will dominate on the ground and likely get a finish.

"I'm taking Kayla Harrison obviously"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The host thinks the odds are a bit wide for his liking but still believes Harrison will go out and grind the fight out. He notes Harrison is the superior grappler and may be at a disadvantage in striking, but not enough to prevent her from closing distance and using judo. He expects Harrison to win on the scorecards, as Vieira will show enough resistance to avoid a finish.

odds a little bit wide for my liking
"the odds a little bit wide for my liking but that still does not take away from the fact that I think that Harrison goes out there and grinds this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Paul picks Harrison, noting her world-class grappling and the fact that she can now use elbows in the UFC. He mentions Vieira's cardio issues and Harrison's ability to grind out a win, but cautions about the weight cut and altitude.

"I'm picking Kayla Harrison"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

The MMA Guru picks Kayla Harrison over Ketlen Vieira, citing Harrison's dominant grappling and physicality. He notes Harrison's ability to toss around training partners like Alex Pereira and her past performance against Holly Holm. He believes Harrison will be the champion and that Vieira is not on her level. He also mentions the fight is three rounds, so altitude is less of a concern.

"I'm going to go Kayla Harrison you guys I just got a hunch that she's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Kayla Harrison

Zane picks Harrison confidently, noting that Vieira is a swing-and-clinch artist who lacks the nuance to deal with Harrison's superior judo and grappling. He highlights Harrison's adjustment in the Holly Holm fight where she let go of a hip toss to land in top position. Zane expects Harrison to dominate in the clinch and win decisively.

Harrison opened at -769, now -1042. Vieira opened at +483, now +659.
"Kayla harrison's gonna win. what is I know shocker."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Joaquin Buckley

Joaquin Buckley W

21-8
KO (punch) R3 2:17
Fight 6 VS Welterweight Completed

Joaquin Buckley

No odds available.

Stephen Thompson

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Joaquin Buckley

Age32
Height5' 10"
Reach76.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Stephen Thompson

Age43
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Joaquin Buckley

3.88SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
2.93SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.54TD Avg
45.0%TD Acc.
72.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Stephen Thompson

4.05SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.0SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
0.23TD Avg
35.0%TD Acc.
63.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.

"I think waim Buckley Sprints right through him on the ground if he needs to"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Stephen Thompson

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.

"I got to go with Steven Thompson here I think he's the the much better Striker and if Buckley doesn't get takedowns I think Thompson can get it done here so I'm going to take Thompson to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.

"I got Buckley as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.

Buckley by TKO if he gets enough wrestling
"Buckley just needs to wrestle. And he's a very willing wrestler."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.

"I think that Buckley's gonna time these double legs and I think he's gonna come out here ground and pound TKO or submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.

"I expect Buckley to get this fight to the ground promptly and from there utilize his topheavy approach where he should be able to grind this out and win it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.

Buckley by decision
"Buckley Buckley by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.

"I'm going to go Walkin Buckley second round TKO I think he's going to put a whooping on wanderb boy"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.

Buckley by TKO if he gets enough wrestling
"I got to pick him to the takedowns and you know, like Buckley can't he can absolutely walk right on to a knockout."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Iasmin Lucindo

Iasmin Lucindo W

18-6
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 7 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Iasmin Lucindo

No odds available.

Marina Rodriguez

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Iasmin Lucindo

Age24
Height5' 3"
Reach66.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Marina Rodriguez

Age39
Height5' 6"
Reach65.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo

3.22SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
2.8SApM
62.0%Str. Def.
2.28TD Avg
55.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez

4.51SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.01SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.27TD Avg
50.0%TD Acc.
61.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Alexander Hernandez

Alexander Hernandez W

18-9
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 8 VS Lightweight Completed

Alexander Hernandez

No odds available.

Austin Hubbard

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

Alexander Hernandez

Age33
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Austin Hubbard

Age34
Height5' 10"
Reach71.0"
Weight155 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez

4.31SLpM
40.0%Str. Acc.
4.5SApM
59.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
73.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Austin Hubbard

3.97SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.1SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
1.63TD Avg
28.0%TD Acc.
68.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.

Would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog
"I'm picking Alexander Hernandez here... I am not going to bet on him as a favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

"I like Hubbert here as a dog I'm going to pick him to win this fight by decision but I wouldn't rule out like a late finish because Hernandez just crumbles time and time again at elevation short …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.

"I think I'm gonna take hubard"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.

"I'm going to take Hernandez though. I'm going to take Hernandez to any, any fight where it seems even remotely possible that Hernandez could win it by mistake."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.

"I'm going hubard here not confidently because how can you be confident in and harmless hubard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.

"I do have to lean with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez which should allow him to land better shots defend the grappling of hubard and eventually find a Knockout in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.

"hubard will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.

"We're going with Alexander Hernandez here over Austin hubard TKO early in the fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Austin Hubbard

Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.

"I'm going to pick Hubbard with this fight being at altitude, and Hernandez coming in on short notice with his confidence problems."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Standard Hernandez fight counter and circle. Austinx tried to keep aa pace on him

César Almeida

César Almeida W

7-2
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 9 VS Middleweight Completed

César Almeida

No odds available.

Ihor Potieria

No odds available.

Fighter Stats

César Almeida

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ihor Potieria

Age30
Height6' 3"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - César Almeida

3.46SLpM
58.0%Str. Acc.
2.03SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
0.0TD Avg
0.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ihor Potieria

4.44SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.96SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.73TD Avg
18.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
César Almeida

Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.

Wishes odds were better at -400
"Caesar Raa is the better Striker it is literally that simple"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
César Almeida

Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"I'm going to go Ona here I think he's going to stuff the takedowns keep it on the feet and I think he's going to break pateria as the fight goes on give me caesar Al to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
César Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.

"I'm taking Caesar Almeida"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.

"Picking him over Poteer. Yeah. Oh, absolutely. Boxer who has trouble actually sitting on big strikes. That just sounds like a nightmare."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.

"I'm gonna lean with Cesar I'm just not convinced about you know minus 400"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.

"I don't think poera has that type of grappling and he will be forced to strike with the better Striker which should ultimately lead to CER Alida finding a knockout here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.

"it's dogger pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
César Almeida

The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.

"I'm going to go with Caesar almea I think he's a way better Striker I don't see eho Pia getting takedowns on him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
César Almeida

Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.

"I will take sixes are all made to, uh, to win a kickboxing bout with an MMA fighter. Perfect kind of middleweight bout to line up for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Ryan Spann

Ryan Spann W

24-11
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35
Fight 10 VS Light Heavyweight Completed

Ryan Spann

Moneyline
DraftKings -205
KO/TKO
FanDuel +100
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +750

Ovince Saint Preux

Moneyline
Caesars +185
KO/TKO
BetWay +700
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
BetRivers +600
Fighter Stats

Ryan Spann

Age34
Height6' 5"
Reach79.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Ovince Saint Preux

Age43
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight205 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Ryan Spann

3.19SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.14SApM
43.0%Str. Def.
1.3TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
52.0%TD Def.
1.8Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Ovince Saint Preux

3.03SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
3.33SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
1.09TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
Fight Notes

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Tecia Pennington

Tecia Pennington W

15-8
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 11 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Tecia Pennington

Moneyline
BetMGM -165
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1100
Submission
FanDuel +1300
Decision
FanDuel -120

Carla Esparza

Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
DraftKings +1400
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
BetRivers +215
Fighter Stats

Tecia Pennington

Age36
Height5' 1"
Reach60.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Carla Esparza

Age38
Height5' 1"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tecia Pennington

4.73SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
3.48SApM
61.0%Str. Def.
0.56TD Avg
14.0%TD Acc.
62.0%TD Def.
0.1Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Carla Esparza

2.19SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
2.87SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
3.28TD Avg
36.0%TD Acc.
47.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Angelo picks Tecia Pennington, citing her recent good form, cardio, and ability to defend takedowns. He notes Carla Esparza is coming off a two-year layoff and may be rusty. He believes Pennington's pressure and volume will overwhelm Esparza as the fight goes on, especially at elevation where Pennington lives. He also suggests over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet.

Over 2.5 rounds is the safest bet on the card
"Tisha is the pick she's going to be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Big Brady picks Tecia Pennington despite considering Esparza as a live dog. He cites major red flags for Esparza: a two-year layoff, a recent loss to Zhang Weili, this being her retirement fight, and having a child. He believes Pennington is the better striker and can stuff takedowns, and expects her to win a decision.

"I got to go Pennington here I'm I'm going to take Pennington to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Cody picks Esparza as a dog, citing her wrestling and takedown ability. He questions Pennington's takedown defense and thinks Esparza can control the fight on the ground. He expects a decision win for Esparza.

"I will take Carlos sparza"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Connor picks Esparza despite her long layoff and recent poor performances. He argues that Esparza's wrestling is likely to give her early success, and Pennington struggles to press her striking advantage. He notes that Pennington is a young veteran who never turned into a veteran veteran, and Esparza is tough to beat.

"I'm going to go with Carla Esparza too. I know it's her retirement fight, but she's really, really tough to beat."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

Daniel Vreeland picks Tecia Pennington, citing her volume striking and Esparza's potential decline. He notes that Esparza is coming off a pregnancy and has announced this as her retirement fight, which often leads to poor performances. Vreeland believes if Pennington can stuff takedowns, her volume will be too much for Esparza, and he expects a decision win.

"I'mma go with uh Tia Tores here to come out here and win a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The host believes Tecia Pennington has improved significantly since her loss to Carla Esparza nearly 10 years ago. He notes that both women are now mothers, but Pennington has less ring rust as she fought earlier this year. He expects Pennington to have a better overall game and win on the scorecards with a damage-based approach.

"I believe Pennington is very much improved since that matchup and given that both these women are now moms most recently Carla sparza I do believe that will see Pennington a little bit better in terms of being …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carla Esparza

Paul leans toward Esparza, noting her wrestling and the value at plus 150. He thinks Pennington's takedown defense is suspect and that Esparza can grind out a decision. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"it's a total dog or pass situation for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tecia Pennington

The MMA Guru initially leans toward Carla Esparza but switches to Tecia Pennington after visualizing the matchup. He notes Pennington is faster, more explosive, and has better wrestling and scrambles. He also mentions Pennington's recent split decision with Tabatha Ricci and win over Angela Hill, while Esparza's speed is lacking. He expresses regret and uncertainty, calling it a tough pick.

"I'm going to go with Tisha Pennington here over Carla espara you guys God I might regret that but I'll go with that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carla Esparza

Zane also picks Esparza, though he admits he came into the discussion feeling down on her. He notes that Esparza's wrestling should give her an early round, and Pennington's inability to press her striking advantage makes it likely Esparza wins a decision. He acknowledges the retirement factor but thinks Esparza's scrappiness will carry her.

"I guess Esparza because she's probably going to win around."
Fight Notes

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Court McGee

Court McGee W

23-14
Submission (neck crank) R1 3:19
Fight 12 VS Welterweight Completed

Court McGee

Moneyline
DraftKings +180
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
BetMGM +800
Decision
BetRivers +330

Tim Means

Moneyline
BetRivers -195
KO/TKO
BetRivers +330
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
FanDuel +160
Fighter Stats

Court McGee

Age41
Height5' 11"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Tim Means

Age42
Height6' 2"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Court McGee

4.5SLpM
36.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.78TD Avg
24.0%TD Acc.
70.0%TD Def.
0.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Tim Means

5.04SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.65SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
1.14TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.

Bet 0.25 units on Court McGee at +195
"I'm leaning court court is going to be the pick... I threw a quarter of a unit on him at plus 195"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.

"I just feel like Tim Means is has just a little little bit left in the gas tank at at this at this point of time so I think it's going to be close it's probably going to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.

Court McGee by submission
"it's me and mgee as well brother"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.

"I'm going to pick Tim Means simply because I adore him. And I would like this to be his last fight. And I would like him to go out on a win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.

"I like the Slicker striking style of Tim me his wrestling's gotten a lot better I think he's got a good chance to come out here and knock out Court McGee"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.

"I do think that means is the better overall fighter in this spot and I don't think he'll have too much knockout power to worry about on the McGee side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.

"McGee for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.

"I'm going to say Court McGee wins this one by decision and I'm pretty confident in it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.

"I'm going to rise with Tim Means just for us. Long time Dirty Bird fans."
Fight Notes

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