Career Averages - César Almeida
Career Averages - Ihor Potieria
César Almeida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 113 of 126 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 1 | 11:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 33 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:29 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 32 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 48 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 12 of 20 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 14 of 19 | 73% | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cezary Oleksiejczuk | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, experience, and training at Fighting Nerds. He believes Oleksiejczuk's wrestling and power will be too much for Almeida, who is older and has poor takedown defense. He expects a finish, possibly by submission.
Connor also picks Oleksiejczuk, citing his youth, aggression, and more well-rounded game. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is bad and that Oleksiejczuk can take advantage of that. Connor also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow, and that Oleksiejczuk's ability to initiate exchanges will be key. He sees it as a coin flip but leans to Oleksiejczuk.
Lucrative James picks Cesari Oleksiejczuk (Michał's brother) but acknowledges it's a close fight. He notes Oleksiejczuk's youth, power, and improved grappling at Fighting Nerds, but warns about his takedown defense issues. He believes Oleksiejczuk needs to mix in takedowns to avoid Almeida's knockout power. He projects Oleksiejczuk as a -150 favorite.
Paul also picks Oleksiejczuk, noting his amateur grappling background and the improvements at Fighting Nerds. He thinks Oleksiejczuk can mix in wrestling to avoid Almeida's kickboxing and get a submission, liking the sub prop at plus 750.
Zane picks Oleksiejczuk because he is a young, aggressive prospect with a more well-rounded game than Almeida. He notes that Almeida's wrestling is a huge weakness, and Oleksiejczuk can exploit that by initiating exchanges and mixing in takedowns. Zane also mentions that Almeida is durable but slow-paced, and Oleksiejczuk's front-foot pressure should allow him to dictate the fight. He acknowledges that Almeida is hard to hurt but believes Oleksiejczuk's aggression will be enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 20 of 29 | 68% | 3 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 20 of 29 | 68% | 3 of 9 | 9 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Abdul Razak Alhassan | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Angelo picks César Almeida, reasoning that Abdul Razak Alhassan is essentially a striker despite his Judo background, and Almeida is the more accomplished kickboxer. He notes Alhassan's age (39) and that strikers decline faster. He believes Almeida's striking will be the difference, as Alhassan doesn't use his Judo. He has Almeida in a parlay with Uroš Medić.
Big Brady is baffled by the line and not high on Almeida. He notes Almeida's takedown defense is a serious concern, as he was taken down by Potieria and Kopylov. However, he thinks Alhassan's cardio and age (39) are issues, and Alhassan has never won a fight past 6 minutes. He predicts Almeida will win the last two rounds on the feet and win by decision, as Alhassan will slow down.
Cody fades Almeida as a -250 favorite, citing his poor takedown defense exposed by Roman Kopylov and Ihor Potieria. He notes Alhassan's power, improved cardio training at altitude, and veteran experience. He believes Alhassan can win by knockout or by grinding out a decision if he mixes in takedowns.
Connor picks Almeida because he is a more technical striker who does not get flustered, and he has shown ability to handle wrestling and grappling threats. Almeida is comfortable in the clinch and finds strikes on the break. Alhassan, despite his power, is structureless on the back foot and tends to fight off his back foot, which plays into Almeida's hands. Connor notes that Alhassan's only path is to land a big shot early, but Almeida's counter-striking and patience should prevail.
Daniel acknowledges Alhassan's devastating first-round KO power and judo background, but worries about his cardio and age (close to 40). He thinks Almeida's technical kickboxing will pick Alhassan apart if the fight goes past the first round. He leans Almeida but calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Lucrative James picks César Almeida to win, citing his superior kickboxing and cardio. He acknowledges Alhassan's power and wrestling threat, but believes Alhassan will gas if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's poor grappling but thinks Alhassan won't be able to wrestle for three rounds. He also mentions a prop bet on over 1.5 rounds at -170, as he expects Almeida to survive the early storm.
Almeida has technical combinations while Alhassan has power. Almeida can shut down Alhassan's judo attempts, keep the fight on the feet, pick him apart, and win on the scorecards.
Paul also picks Alhassan, calling Almeida untrustworthy due to his grappling deficiencies. He notes that Alhassan has a judo base and has taken down good fighters. He placed a bet on under 1.5 rounds at +145, expecting a violent finish.
The Guru picks Almeida but is not fully confident. He was unimpressed by Almeida's performance against Ihor Potieria (despite the eye pokes) but notes Almeida is younger (36 vs 39), trains with Pereira, and has momentum. He acknowledges Alhassan's explosiveness and danger but points out his six losses and age. He predicts a TKO, thinking Almeida might chin Alhassan.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Almeida is a violent but limited kickboxer who has shown resilience and ability to adapt. He points out that Almeida's guillotine threat and comfort in the clinch make him dangerous. Alhassan is nearly 40 with only two wins since 2018, and his fight IQ is poor. Zane also mentions that Alhassan's tendency to fight off his back foot will allow Almeida to be first and land cleaner shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 57 of 113 | 50% | 78 of 137 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 44 of 89 | 49% | 57 of 102 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 57 of 113 | 50% | 32 of 69 | 14 of 28 | 11 of 16 | 41 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 44 of 89 | 49% | 22 of 64 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 42 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 23 of 41 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 16 of 32 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 22 of 36 | 61% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 12 of 36 | 33% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 18 of 40 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.
Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.
Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.
Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.
The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.
Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.
Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 105 | 55% | 114 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 41 of 71 | 57% | 74 of 114 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 8:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 1 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 52 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 17 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 34 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| César Almeida | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 34 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 58 of 105 | 55% | 18 of 52 | 24 of 30 | 16 of 23 | 51 of 97 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 |
| César Almeida | 41 of 71 | 57% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 23 of 42 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 7 of 10 | 12 of 17 | 23 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| César Almeida | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 20 of 36 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 31 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 7 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| César Almeida | 14 of 21 | 66% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-112), Kopylov (-108)
Round 1
A pair of knockout artists grace the cage for the preliminary headliner, with Almeida (5-0, 1-0 UFC) and Kopylov (12-3, 4-3 UFC) tallying 15 knockouts opposite zero submissions on their respective ledgers. Referee Herb Dean steels himself for what’s about to come next. Before going all-out, the two middleweight strikers bump fists. Kopylov lands one kick, and Almeida answers with five of his own. Almeida goes after a head kick, and Kopylov lines up a right to the body and left to the head. Almeida pays it no mind and looks to set up a step-in knee when Kopylov comes after him. Almeida slams his shin on the inside and outside of Kopylov’s front leg, and he slips away from a jab. Almeida lands a low kick, and Kopylov catches the kick and trips the Brazilian up to put him down on the ground. Kopylov backs off instead of climbing into top position, and he retreats when a few big kicks fly at him. The threat of the takedown opens up a massive left hand for the Russian, who hurts Almeida badly but does not take advantage of it. Almeida resets, and the two proceed to fire off heavy blows. Almeida scores a body kick, and Kopylov shoots in for a takedown and plants the kickboxer on his back. Almeida wall-walks his way up, and Kopylov measures him to blast him with two right hands before Almeida stands back up. Almeida goes to the body, and he wipes his eye after taking a straight left hand. Kopylov takes advantage of body kick by busting Almeida in the chops with a straight left, sending Almeida crashing to the canvas. Kopylov backs away to let his man up, and he skirts away from two kicks and shoots for a takedown to take Almeida off his feet. Kopylov lands the double and puts himself in side control, keeping tight chest pressure to pin “Cesinha” down. Almeida gets the guard back and is warned for punches to the back of the head. Kopylov rides out the rest of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights double bump fists, and Almeida reintroduces himself with two body kicks. The second lands, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Almeida digs the body with two push kicks, and he turns his hips into a body kick. Almeida walks Kopylov down and kicks his lead leg, only to get countered with a powerful right hook. Almeida ducks a punch to jab the body, and his subsequent head kick glances off the shoulder. Almeida loops a left hand around the guard, and two more punches land before Kopylov shoots in for a takedown. Almeida stifles him and digs a left to the liver, and he connects with a few more punches and retreats when Kopylov measures him with a one-two. Kopylov rushes forward to take the fight down, and Almeida leans his back against the wall and slides his arm beneath the chin with a guillotine choke. From this position, the Brazilian knees Kopylov in the chest a few times. Almeida escapes, and they jab at one another. Fists fly, and Kopylov catches his man with a right hand. Almeida fires off a head kick, and he lands a body shot and chains it into a knee from up close before pushing Kopylov away. Almeida kicks the ribs, and Kopylov sweeps him off his feet and dumps him on the mat. Kopylov retains top control in half guard, keeping Almeida stuck on his back and pushing him over when Almeida sits up. Almeida kicks the side with his heel from off his back, and Dean asks for Kopylov to do more as Kopylov is just grinding. Kopylov stays tightly pressed on his foe’s chest, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bow to one another before engaging in the final frame. Almeida strikes first, with a front kick and a body kick. Kopylov doubles up a jab and lets go with a head kick, but Almeida pushes through it swinging his mighty fists. Kopylov ducks into a right hand and he wobbles back, and Almeida takes advantage of it by planting a knee on the forehead and a right hand on the way out. Almeida lines up another right hand, and as he rushes forward to throw more, Kopylov tackles him to the floor. Kopylov climbs into the open guard of his foe, and it only takes a few seconds of inaction for Dean to clap for more activity. Dean asks a second time, and Kopylov does not oblige him. Almeida closes his guard around the waist, and Dean calls for action a third time. Kopylov gets off a left hand over the top, and there have now been four claps from Dean to improve his position or do some damage. Almeida hangs on tight, and Kopylov lands two punches after Dean claps a fifth time while saying “work.” Kopylov does just enough to keep going, and chants boom in the area to “stand them up.” Commentator Joe Rogan joins them momentarily in those calls. Kopylov stays doing nothing, and Dean finally stands them up with 90 seconds to spare as the crowd is thrilled by him. Almeida thanks him with a blitz of fists, and he cracks the Russian with a combination. To take all the wind out of his sails, Kopylov rushes ahead and take Almeida down to the ground easy as can be. Almeida kicks him off, forcing Kopylov upright again, and Dean tells Kopylov to do something rather than lord over him slapping with occasional kicks. Kopylov drops down into side control, and he clings to the Brazilian until the prolonged endeavor draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov (29-28 Kopylov)
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Cesar Almeida via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov because although César Almeida is the better pure kickboxer, Kopylov has shown he can shoot takedowns and has good takedown defense. He believes the MMA aspect, specifically Kopylov's ability to mix in wrestling, will be the difference. He notes Almeida's takedown defense in the center of the cage is poor.
Big Brady is targeting this fight heavily, expecting both guys to stand and bang with power. He thinks Roman Kopylov will be lower owned and may implement a wrestling-heavy game plan for takedown upside. He sees either guy live for a knockout. He also likes César Almeida but notes he will be very popular.
Cody picks Kopylov, arguing he can mix in wrestling to neutralize Almeida's kickboxing. He notes Kopylov has trained wrestling in Dagestan and has shown takedown defense. Cody believes Kopylov can take Almeida down and grind him out, or catch him overextending. He acknowledges Almeida's kickboxing credentials but thinks Kopylov's MMA skills will prevail. He takes a shoey bet on Kopylov.
Daniel flips a coin to decide, acknowledging both are good strikers. He notes Almeida's elite kickboxing credentials but questions the transition to MMA. He says it's a pick'em and goes with Almeida due to the coin flip.
The host is impressed with Almeida's defensive grappling and striking, predicting he will outwork Kopylov. Almeida's ability to get back to his feet and his superior striking should wear down Kopylov, who has cardio issues. Even if Kopylov tries to grapple, Almeida's defensive skills will nullify him, leading to a knockout for Almeida.
Paul picks Almeida, citing his world-class kickboxing and win over Alex Pereira (though long ago). He notes Almeida is working on his MMA skills and believes if it's a striking match, Almeida has the edge. Paul took Almeida at plus 120 earlier and likes the line movement. He acknowledges Almeida is 36 but thinks his standup is on point.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov, stating that César Almeida hasn't finished anyone legit and that his striking is not elite. He believes Kopylov is more proven in the UFC and will work into the fight, possibly mixing in grappling. He predicts Kopylov by decision, possibly finishing later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:53 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 29 of 38 | 76% | 87 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 43 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Dylan Budka | 0 | 28 of 36 | 77% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 29 of 38 | 76% | 21 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dylan Budka | 28 of 36 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 19 of 21 | 3 of 6 |
Angelo leans Dylan Budka (whom he accidentally calls Gillan) because he is a grappler facing a striker. He expects Budka to shoot takedowns instantly and not stand and strike with César Almeida, a high-level kickboxer. He notes that Almeida's takedown defense is unknown and that defending trips on Contender Series is different from defending actual shots. However, he acknowledges the unknowns with UFC debuts.
Big Brady picks César Almeida as the underdog, citing that Almeida is the much better striker with an extensive kickboxing background. He notes that the judges have been emphasizing damage over control, which favors Almeida's big shots. However, he acknowledges that Budka could rack up control time with wrestling, but doubts Budka will do much with it. He sees a close fight with Almeida landing bigger shots and winning a decision.
Cody picks Almeida as a dog, citing his win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing and his striking advantage. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler with poor cardio, and that Almeida's takedown defense, while not great, may be enough to get back to his feet. Cody thinks Almeida's striking will be the difference, especially if Budka tires.
Daniel Vreeland picks César Almeida, expecting him to overcome early grappling scares and take over on the feet in later rounds. He notes Almeida's kickboxing pedigree from fighting Patan three times and his ability to get back up after takedowns. Vreeland believes Almeida's body shots, leg kicks, and jab will slow Budka's takedown attempts, allowing Almeida to finesse him on the feet.
Almeida is technically the better striker with kickboxing experience, including a win over Alex Pereira. He showed improved grappling in his last fight, which should help nullify Budka's clinch and grinding. Budka is physically strong but lacks technique; Almeida can damage him in close with knees and elbows, then win by decision.
Paul picks Budka but with low conviction. He notes Budka is a one-dimensional wrestler, while Almeida is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. Paul thinks Budka can grind out a win by takedowns and control, but acknowledges Almeida's striking pedigree and the possibility of a knockout. He calls it a pass fight.
The host emphasizes Budka's elite high school wrestling credentials (87-5 record, national champion, All-American) and contrasts it with Almeida's kickboxing background. He notes that Almeida was taken down by Lucas Fernando, who has no wrestling background, and argues Budka's wrestling will be the decisive factor. He predicts Budka will dominate with takedowns and calls it a lock, threatening to quit covering the sport if Budka doesn't outwrestle Almeida.
Ihor Potieria - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Tulio | 1 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 34 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Tulio | 1 | 29 of 54 | 53% | 34 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Tulio | 29 of 54 | 53% | 20 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 16 |
| Ihor Potieria | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marco Tulio | 29 of 54 | 53% | 20 of 41 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 16 |
| Ihor Potieria | 6 of 15 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
With the recent memory of a spinning back kick knockout to earn him a spot on the UFC roster, Tulio (12-1, 0-0 UFC) surges into what would have been a middleweight affair with plenty of momentum on his side. The same cannot be said for the struggling Potieria (20-7, 2-5 UFC), who has not only dropped four of five but missed weight ahead of what may be a pink-slip matchup. This bout now taking place at 188 pounds will be covered by referee Mark Smith, who is prepped and ready to jump in at a moment’s notice. Potieria offers an apologetic glove touch to get going, and it is accepted. The center of the cage goes to Potieria, who springs away from a low kick early. Tulio unleashes a one-two, and when that comes up short, his leg kick does not. Potieria absorbs a right hand to counter with a hook over the top, and it marks Tulio’s eye up fast. Potieria goes after a second power left hook, and Tulio’s footwork keeps him safe. Tulio chains a punch into a kick, and the two lean towards one another and clack their heads together. Smith calls time to warn them, and they are quick to resume after the warning with two punches from Tulio. Potieria ducks down, and he eats a particularly stern right hand. Tulio lines up another right as he backs away, and he steps in and blasts Potieria in the groin with a knee, drawing a sound that echoes in the arena. Potieria collapses to the mat and does not make a sound, as Smith pauses the fight and tells Potieria he will have five minutes to recover. Smith warns Tulio, and Potieria blows his nose while on one knee. After 90 seconds, Potieria climbs to his feet using the fence, and he tells Smith he does not need the doctor. Three minutes elapse before Potieria is good to go, and they start up again. Tulio is quick to strike again when resuming, with a head kick and standing back fist surprising the Ukrainian. Tulio cracks “The Duelist” with a right hand, and he puts Potieria down with a follow-up right. Potieria’s nose busted open with blood leaking fast. Potieria tries to get hold of an armbar off his back, and Tulio punches and elbows through it.
Potieria turns to his knees, and Tulio clubs him with a devastating undercut beneath his armpit that shuts his lights out. Smith witnesses that Potieria has been deprived of his consciousness and waved the fight off
, and a bloody, beaten Potieria comes to and coughs his mouthpiece out. This is a statement introduction for Tulio, whose performance is slightly marred for the earlier foul but sealed the deal with his fists.
The Official Result
Marco Tulio def. Ihor Potieria R1 3:04 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Marco Tulio, stating that the fight is set up for him to win. He notes Tulio's diverse striking and solid grappling, while Ihor Potieria is a kickboxer with poor takedown defense. He believes Tulio's wrestling and power will be enough, though he dislikes the -500 odds on a UFC debut. He expects Tulio to win, possibly via takedowns and ground control.
Big Brady thinks Tulio is the better fighter overall, with more ways to win. He acknowledges Potieria has looked better than expected, even having moments against Bolat and Almeida, but still considers him bad. Brady notes Tulio can push Potieria against the cage, get takedowns, and is a better striker. He predicts Tulio wins by decision, though he thinks the line is too wide.
Cody picks Potieria as a big underdog, arguing the line is inflated on Tulio. He notes Potieria's power, experience against tough competition, and improvements at 185. He believes Tulio is not a proven prospect and Potieria has a puncher's chance.
Daniel highlights Tulio's confidence and ground game, noting he is nasty on the mat and trains at Shoot the Box. He thinks Potieria is better than his record shows but lacks confidence and is on a losing streak. He predicts Tulio will get the fight to the mat and finish quickly.
This should be a chaotic matchup favoring Tulio, but not enough to justify -500 odds. The host lacks confidence to back Potieria either, but expects chaos and Tulio to win, probably by knockout.
Paul also picks Potieria, calling it a 'dogger pass' fight. He notes Tulio's unimpressive Contender Series performances and Potieria's ability to grapple a little. He expects a competitive striking match where Potieria can land.
The Guru picks Tulio, calling him an underrated prospect with good standup and grappling. He notes Tulio's win over Yusri Belgar on the contender series and his momentum. He sympathizes with Potieria's tough career but thinks Tulio is the better fighter. He mentions Tulio trains at Shooter Box with Diego Lima and has a decent chin.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 0 | 57 of 113 | 50% | 78 of 137 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 2:15 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 44 of 89 | 49% | 57 of 102 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 0 | 22 of 36 | 61% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:13 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| César Almeida | 57 of 113 | 50% | 32 of 69 | 14 of 28 | 11 of 16 | 41 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 44 of 89 | 49% | 22 of 64 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 42 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | César Almeida | 23 of 41 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 11 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 16 of 32 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | César Almeida | 22 of 36 | 61% | 17 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 22 |
| Ihor Potieria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | César Almeida | 12 of 36 | 33% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 18 of 40 | 45% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.
Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.
Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.
Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.
The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.
Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.
Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Ihor Potieria | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Ihor Potieria | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-535), Potieria (+400)
Round 1
Keeping the action pushing, surging wild man Pereira (30-11, 2 NC; 8-2 UFC) is ready to push his win streak to eight at the expense of struggling Ukrainian Potieria (20-5, 2-3 UFC). Since moving to middleweight, Pereira has appeared to have leveled up, while Potieria also shows that changing gears to 185 pounds did him some good. Referee Fernando Portella will see who makes it out of this encounter, and before it begins, the fighters sternly bump fists together. Pereira hops from side to side, his hands not particularly high, and he ignores a low kick coming his way to jab the body and follow it with a straight punch to the same target. Potieria retaliates with a slapping leg kick, and Pereira leaps at him with a straight right hand that knocks Potieria off his feet. The maniac Brazilian back flips and lands with his knee on Potieria, which is an illegal blow as Potieria is grounded. Nevertheless, Portella stands back, marveling at the move pulled off before his eyes. Pereira decides to latch onto a guillotine choke, and he allows Potieria to stand up and wrench the neck on the way up. Pereira squeezes with all his might, and “The Duelist” frantically taps out. As Pereira releases the grip, Potieria falls to his back, completely unconscious. Before Portella can reach him, Potieria’s head clatters lifelessly off the canvas. Pereira solemnly walks away, until he sees that Potieria has regained consciousness, and he starts dancing to celebrate. Meanwhile, commission officials speak to UFC brass about the foul, determining whether or not it impacted the result and if Pereira should be penalized for it. Given the nature of the strike, a disqualification is not off the table--although Portella did not call the foul during the action, so that may be unlikely--and a post-fight review might also find another result.
The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Ihor Potieria R1 0:54 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo is confident in Pereira, citing his speed, power, creativity, and grappling. He notes Potieria is a technical striker but hittable and with poor takedown defense. He expects Pereira to win by finish.
Big Brady is high on Pereira's middleweight resurgence, noting his two quick finishes. He views Potieria as a step down and believes Pereira will knock him out in the first round, possibly mid to late.
Cody picks Pereira, noting his improved fight IQ, cardio, and well-roundedness at middleweight. He believes Potieria is a one-dimensional knockout artist with poor durability and cardio. Cody expects Pereira to win, likely by knockout.
Daniel Vreeland leans with Pereira but considers it a dog-or-pass situation. He acknowledges Potieria's recent improvements, including better cardio and confidence, but believes Pereira's top-15 trajectory and finishing ability give him the edge. He suggests that Pereira's decision prop at +550 might be a better value than the moneyline, as Potieria could last the distance.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Michel Pereira. He notes that Pereira has chilled out his wild style since gassing out against Tristan Connelly, and has been on a seven-fight winning streak. Vreeland thinks Pereira will win easily, though he doesn't elaborate on a specific method. He later mentions that Pereira's submission prop has moved from +650 to +370, indicating the books are aware of his submission threat.
Jeff Fox is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him a 'demolisher' and noting his seven-fight winning streak since two losses. Fox explains that one loss was due to an illegal knee against Diego Sanchez, and the other was a short-notice grappling loss to Tristan Connelly. Since then, Pereira has been more measured and finished opponents like Andre Petroski. Fox believes Potieria is not UFC caliber, with wins only over aged fighters like Shogun. He expects Pereira to do whatever he wants, and later in the show he picks Pereira by submission for the Hungry Man parlay.
Pereira is on a crazy run, harnessing his big striking power over 15 minutes. His speed and power advantage will be enough to find Potieria's chin and put him out clean.
Paul picks Pereira, highlighting his 8-2 UFC record, athleticism, and evolution into a winning style. He dismisses Potieria's chances, citing his poor durability, cardio, and ground game. Paul sees Pereira as a rightful favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira, praising his skills at middleweight and noting that welterweights often make better middleweights. He highlights Pereira's wins over Andre Petroski and Maxime Gremont, and predicts a first-round rear-naked choke. He criticizes Potieria's record and recent performances, including a loss to Shogun Rua.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 32 of 133 | 24% | 41 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 67 of 168 | 39% | 77 of 181 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 14 of 41 | 34% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 2 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 12 of 56 | 21% | 12 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Robert Bryczek | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 28 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 8 of 42 | 19% | 13 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Robert Bryczek | 1 | 25 of 65 | 38% | 27 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 32 of 133 | 24% | 19 of 103 | 10 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 30 of 127 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 67 of 168 | 39% | 47 of 139 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 17 | 61 of 156 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 12 of 35 | 34% | 7 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 14 of 41 | 34% | 5 of 26 | 1 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 12 of 35 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ihor Potieria | 12 of 56 | 21% | 6 of 41 | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 28 of 62 | 45% | 20 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ihor Potieria | 8 of 42 | 19% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Robert Bryczek | 25 of 65 | 38% | 22 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 59 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bryczek (-198), Potieria (+164)
Round 1
Just one of the 14 fights on this card featured someone missing weight—Flowers and Marcos both missed initially and then came back to hit their proper marks. Former light heavyweight Potieria (19-5, 1-3 UFC) took his fight against Bryczek (17-5, 0-0 UFC) on short notice, and he clocked in one and a half pounds over the middleweight limit. As a result, Potieria surrenders 20% of his purse to the Polish slugger. Whether that 20% will be from Potieira’s one check or two, the two men have the next 15 minutes or less to decide it. Referee Mike Beltran checks them in as they touch gloves. Potieria is the aggressor as he pitches kicks from his rear leg to the waist and knee. Bryczek allows Potieria to crash the pocket, so he can sit down on two punches that stop Potieria in his tracks. The Ukrainian shakes out immediate cobwebs and continues to move forward, looking for a right hook that is not there. Bryczek takes a kick to the ribs and responds with a right hand, and he pushes off as a finger jabs into Potieria’s eye. Beltran sees it immediately and calls time, and he lets Potieria wipe it out with a towel as he brings in the doctor. Potieria remarks that he is a little bleary in his eye, but that he is otherwise good to continue. After two minutes, the fighters resume their mutual combat in the center of the cage. Potieria tosses out low kicks, and one lands with a thump instead of a slap. Bryczek loops punches to the body, and Potieria scores a solid kick and a right hand. Bryczek opens up with a huge right hand, and he cracks Potieria again. Bryczek lets loose several more punches, and Potieria bounces away and absorbs one more flush right hand on the jaw. As Potieria backpedals, he parries a right hand from the Polish fighter, which rebounds square into Potieria’s cup in an unlucky turn of events. Beltran recognizes the unintentional foul and allows Potieria to recover once more, and Potieria takes all the time he needs. This results in another lengthy stoppage of three minutes long, and Beltran loudly and sternly admonishes Bryczek that he will lose a point if he fouls again. When they resume, Bryczek is ready and rearing to throw hands, and he lands several hard ones to force Potieria to shoot for an ill-advised takedown. Bryczek stops it, but he gets pressed into the fence from behind, with Potieria kneeing him in the back of the thigh frustratingly. Bryczek spins around with seconds to go, and they bang it out right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bryczek
Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle and jab at one another from range, with neither landing much early. Potieria misses with an overhand right, but he plants a kick on the inside of the Polish fighter’s calf. Potieria shoots for a takedown, and he abandons it right when Bryczek sprawls so that he can aim an uppercut on the dome. Bryczek sees it at the last second and dodges it, and he ducks a subsequent spinning back fist. Potieria drops his hands and lands a few punches from a safe distance, and he punctuates a combination with a low kick. The two clash together and bang heads, but it does not result in anything more problematic. Bryczek digs a left to the body, and Potieria shrugs at him and then shoots for a single. Potieria again follows that failed takedown with an uppercut, and this one brushes the side of the UFC newcomer’s head. Bryczek looks for a right hand over the top, and he kicks the body as Potieria again shrugs at him mockingly. Potieria sprints in for a single, and Bryczek hops away and walks Potieria down. Potieria intercepts him with a spinning back kick to the midsection, and Bryczek takes it cleanly and keeps his guard up to block and overhand left. Potieria taps his chest and drops down to the floor with a Mortal Kombat-esque leg sweep. Bryczek look at him confusedly. Potieria is in his groove, having fun and dodging and weaving anything coming from Bryczek. Potieria clips his man a few times with short shots, and he catches Bryczek on the chin with an uppercut. Bryczek headhunts and struggles to reach his opponent, and they trade one big punch right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Round 3
There is a final glove touch to check in the last round, and Potieria stays firmly in his groove with jabs and funky hand movements. Bryczek reaches his foe with a straight left hand, but it is one-and-done. Bryczek loads up on a right hand, only to get countered with a left hook that shakes him up. Bryczek charges into action with a huge left hook, and Potieria’s head snaps back like a Pez dispenser. Potieria replies with a three-punch salvo that knocks Bryczek off his feet, and Bryczek barely keeps with it courtesy of a desperation takedown. Bryczek gets back to his feet, and Potieria chases after him and swings for the bleachers. Bryczek does the same, and he manages to catch Potieria coming in but is taking shots as well. Both men use a ton of energy, and Potieria presses the Polish fighter into the wall and strings four elbows together. Bryczek slips and rips Potieria with big punches, and he splits Potieria’s eyebrow open in the process. Potieria rips an elbow that misses slightly, but he blasts Bryczek with an elbow and several punches from up close. Bryczek turns his man around in the tie-up, and he sneaks an elbow up top before breaking away. Potieria reaches his foe with a few punches, and Bryczek tags him back with his own short flurry. The two clash together, and Potieria clinches up to wear on the exhausted Bryczek. Bryczek gets space with 10 seconds to go, and the two throw down and knee one another right as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria (29-28 Potieria)
The Official Result
Ihor Potieria def. Robert Bryczek via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo notes that Ihor Potieria has good striking power and accuracy but poor cardio and is hittable. Robert Bryczek is a trained boxer with good footwork, feints, and power, and solid takedown defense. Angelo believes Bryczek just needs to survive Potieria's early danger and then take over as Potieria fades. He calls this one of his most confident picks and suggests a potential under 2.5 rounds bet.
Big Brady picks Robert Bryczek to win by first-round KO. He notes that Bryczek has unreal power and has been knocking out opponents cold in his recent fights, while Potieria has poor striking defense (41%) and limited cardio. He expects a one-round banger where both fighters swing, but Bryczek's power and the fact that Potieria is cutting to middleweight on short notice give him the edge.
Cody is hesitant but picks Potieria as a dog. He questions Bryczek's level of competition, noting he's 33, making his UFC debut, and has fought lower-level opponents. Potieria has faced better competition at 205 and showed competitiveness against Rodolfo Vieira. Cody thinks Bryczek's physique and quick finishes may not translate against a UFC-level opponent, and Potieria's power at 185 could be a factor.
Bryczek has speed, power, and athleticism. He should be able to land an early knockout against Potieria, who is making his middleweight debut on short notice. Potieria has poor durability and slows down in deep waters. The under 1.5 rounds is a strong play. Bryczek by first-round knockout.
Paul is also hesitant but picks Potieria. He notes that Bryczek's record is padded with low-level competition and that he has never fought at this level. Potieria, despite his losses, has fought good fighters and has power. Paul thinks Bryczek's size and possible PED concerns are red flags, and that Potieria at his natural weight class could surprise.
The MMA Guru picks Robert Bryczek because Potieria is taking the fight on short notice after a recent TKO loss, and has been finished multiple times. He notes Bryczek is a dangerous knockout artist in his prime, with a full camp. He expects Bryczek to get a first-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 80 of 131 | 61% | 99 of 160 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Ihor Potieria | 1 | 73 of 127 | 57% | 92 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 18 of 43 | 41% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Bellato | 0 | 62 of 88 | 70% | 72 of 106 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Ihor Potieria | 1 | 36 of 58 | 62% | 50 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Bellato | 80 of 131 | 61% | 70 of 116 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 46 | 11 of 14 | 51 of 71 |
| Ihor Potieria | 73 of 127 | 57% | 58 of 111 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 38 of 73 | 12 of 21 | 23 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Bellato | 18 of 43 | 41% | 12 of 32 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 32 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 37 of 69 | 53% | 22 of 53 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 56 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Bellato | 62 of 88 | 70% | 58 of 84 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 51 of 71 |
| Ihor Potieria | 36 of 58 | 62% | 36 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | 4 of 8 | 23 of 33 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bellato (-455), Potieria (+350)
Round 1
Light heavyweights are next to the stage, as Bellato (11-2, 0-0 UFC) makes his organizational debut opposite Potieria (19-4, 1-2 UFC) at 205 pounds. Potieria will be remembered as the man who retired Brazilian icon Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.
For more on Bellato, read “Zero Hour” from Sherdog’s own Christian Stein
. Jacob Montalvo steps up as the third man in the cage. They touch gloves, and we are underway. Bellato backs Potieria onto his back foot and clips him with a right hook. Potieria answers with an inside leg kick. Bellato closes the distance, but Potieria shrugs off his bid for a takedown. Jab-jab-cross combo from the Ukrainian. Bellato tests the midsection with a kick. Potieria finds a home with a clean straight left, which has been his best weapon thus far. Sweeping hooks from both hands wobbles Bellato. Potieria using his speed and lateral movement to stay ahead of the Brazilian. He steps into a knee to the body. Bellato steps forward and engages his adversary in the clinch. A knee south of the equator draws an audible reaction from Potieria and results in a halt to the action. Future generations of Potierias cry out as we await a restart. Potieria sticks the Brazilian with a straight left, dodges a flying knee and circles out into open space. He clips Bellato with a multi-punch burst, avoids return fire and scores with another straight left. Bellato presses his efforts in the clinch, drawing boos from the crowd. A knee and a right hook gets Potieria’s attention. They trade at close range to close out the round. Excitement starts to build.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Potieria
Round 2
Bellato immediately closes the distance and scores with a front kick to the gut. He follows clubbing left hand with an elbow strike and knee up the middle. Potieria floors him with a multi-punch volley, follows up with heavy fire, shuts down a takedown, takes top position and unleashes a barrage of brutal hammerfists. Bellato somehow survives the onslaught. Potieria slows, waits for his second wind and gets busy again with punches and hammerfists. The Brazilian may not be able to take much more, with Montalvo hovering above. Potieria passes guard and slams home more punches and hammerfists. Bellato rises to his feet. Potieria looks exhausted but continues to throw. Bellato connects with a left hook, ducks a few counterpunches and trips the Ukrainian to the floor. What a turn of events.
Bellato sets up in half guard and slams elbows into the legs, body and head. Bellato moves to full mount with a minute to go and cuts loose with punches. Potieria offering no intelligent defense, and Montalvo decides to stop it
. Amazing rally from Bellato in his UFC debut.
The Official Result
Rodolfo Bellato def. Ihor Potieria—TKO (Punches) 4:17 R2
Big Brady is very confident in Rodolfo Bellato, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He praises Bellato's well-rounded game, including leg kicks, clinch work, and BJJ. He thinks Potieria has a padded record and poor cardio, and that Bellato will break him down against the cage, drag him to the mat, and finish him in the second round by submission.
Cody picks Bellato, calling Potieria a fraud. He notes Potieria's only win condition is an early knockout, and his cardio and durability are terrible. He thinks Bellato can take him down and finish him. He warns that Bellato might stand and bang, which could be risky, but still expects a win.
Lucrative James leans towards Ihor Potieria, noting that the line is wide and that Bellato may be overvalued after a big win on Dana White's Contender Series. He thinks Potieria has a good chance of knocking out Bellato early, especially in round one or two, as Bellato keeps his chin up. However, he is not fully confident and may bet on Potieria by KO if the prop odds are favorable.
Bellato is a BJJ black belt with improving striking and forward pressure. He has shown confidence and power, and his training at Teixeira MMA should provide good partners. Potieria has been exposed against higher-level competition and tends to break under pressure. Bellato is expected to swarm Potieria and finish him either on the ground or on the feet.
Paul picks Bellato but doesn't love the price. He thinks Bellato is a rightful favorite with a well-rounded skill set. He notes Potieria has shown nothing except finishing an aged Shogun. He believes Bellato should win easily if he wrestles, but worries he might stand and bang.
The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Bellato, calling him a tank with good takedown defense and pressure. He believes Potieria lacks quality wins and will fade if he can't finish early. He predicts Bellato will break Potieria in the second round by TKO, citing Bellato's toughness and ability to walk down opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 1 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 13 of 21 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Ihor Potieria | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Ulberg | 13 of 21 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Ihor Potieria | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ulberg, calling him a world-class kickboxer with incredible footwork and range management. He notes Ulberg has 100% takedown accuracy and defense (though only one attempt defended). He says Potieria is a brawler who keeps his hands low and relies on his chin. He expects Ulberg to win inside the distance and would hammer the under if a 2.5 round line is available.
Big Brady is very confident in Ulberg, calling him the much better striker. He notes Potieria has terrible striking defense and will rush in, allowing Ulberg to catch him. Brady references Ulberg's impressive first-round knockout of Negumereanu as evidence of his power. He sees no path to victory for Potieria outside of landing a big shot, and predicts Ulberg will starch him in the first round. He mentions Ulberg is a popular parlay piece but says he's not laying the -400 himself.
Cody picks Ulberg by knockout, expecting him to flatline Potieria. He praises Ulberg's kickboxing and training with Adesanya, and notes Potieria's wild style and disrespectful behavior after the Shogun win. He believes Ulberg's precision will counter Potieria's aggression.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling it a bad matchup for Potieria. He notes that Ulberg is a good low kicker and counter-puncher, and Potieria's wild pressure will play into Ulberg's hands. He thinks Potieria's lack of defense and inability to handle kicks will be his downfall.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Ulberg, highlighting his sharp striking and recent performances against tough opponents. He notes Ulberg's precise combinations and ability to avoid damage, as seen in his last fight where he wasn't touched. Levi criticizes Potieria's padded record and lack of high-level competition, though he acknowledges Potieria's power and the risk of a knockout. He believes Ulberg's cleaner technique and higher ceiling will prevail, but the price is too high for a bet.
Ulberg is far superior in striking, with a disciplined kickboxing style. He has 100% takedown defense, though he hasn't faced a dedicated wrestler. Potieria has power but poor cardio and will likely gas trying to get the fight to the ground. Ulberg will keep it upright and walk Potieria into a big shot, knocking him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance.
Paul is confident in Ulberg, noting his consistent improvements and striking. He mentions Ulberg's adjustments after his first fight, and his ability to pick shots and finish. He sees Potieria as wild and less technical, and expects Ulberg to roll. He added Ulberg to a parlay.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Ulberg, calling it a mismatch. He notes that Ulberg is more complete on the feet and that Potieria's win over Shogun is not impressive. He predicts a TKO in round two or late in the first round.
Zane picks Ulberg, noting that he has figured out his game after a prospect loss and now fights with more composure. He highlights Ulberg's good low kicks, straight punches, and counter-punching, which are terrible for Potieria's wild pressure style. He thinks Potieria has no answer to kicks and will be overwhelmed.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Maurício Rua | 1 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 27 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ihor Potieria | 17 of 31 | 54% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Rua | 21 of 41 | 51% | 16 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 |
Big Brady calls this the sketchiest fight on the card and is staying far away from betting. He notes Potieria has power and finishing ability, with most wins in the first round, but is not sold on his UFC caliber. Shogun is washed at 41 and has been for a while. Potieria has a huge hole in takedown defense, but Shogun doesn't wrestle much. He leans towards Potieria by first-round knockout but has no confidence.
Cody picks Ihor Potieria confidently, noting Potieria's power, speed, and youth advantage over an aging Shogun. He says Shogun is past his prime, has poor durability, and is retiring, which historically leads to losses. He thinks Potieria will land something early and put Shogun away. He mentions Shogun's recent performances have been poor, and that Potieria is a limited striker but enough to beat the current Shogun.
Connor agrees with Zane, stating Shogun's prime ended in 2009 and he's been too slow and fragile. He notes Potieria is not very good but not bad enough to lose to Shogun at this point.
Paul picks Ihor Potieria, agreeing with Cody. He says he hopes he's wrong but thinks Potieria will win. He notes Shogun's decline and the retirement announcement curse. He says he won't bet on this fight but picks Potieria. He mentions Shogun's legendary status but says his time is up.
The Guru picks Potieria despite calling him a 'can crusher.' He notes Shogun is 41 and looked awful in recent fights, struggling against Saint Preux. Potieria is young and scrappy, and the Guru trusts the younger fighter to land first. He predicts a first-round TKO for Potieria, though he admits it would be nice to see Shogun win.
Zane picks Potieria because Shogun is too slow and lacks durability. He notes Potieria is a decent athlete with speed and size, and can take shots. He mentions Shogun's recent losses to Paul Craig and OSP show he's done.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 51 of 95 | 53% | 72 of 122 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 38 of 70 | 54% | 52 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 29 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Ihor Potieria | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 51 of 95 | 53% | 44 of 84 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 57 | 25 of 32 | 3 of 6 |
| Ihor Potieria | 38 of 70 | 54% | 26 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 31 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Ihor Potieria | 7 of 15 | 46% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 43 of 77 | 55% | 37 of 69 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 46 | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 |
| Ihor Potieria | 31 of 55 | 56% | 24 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 25 of 48 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Nicolae Negumereanu to win by decision. He is not impressed with Potieria's padded record and poor competition, while Negumereanu has faced better opposition. He notes both fighters are hittable and reckless, but favors Negumereanu's chin, toughness, and cardio. He expects Potieria to have moments early but fade as the fight goes on.
Cody picks Negumereanu as a dog, citing his UFC experience and wins over real UFC fighters like Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes that Potieria's record is padded with questionable fights and that he hasn't fought anyone. He thinks Negumereanu is more seasoned and can take punishment, and that Potieria's cardio is suspect. He also mentions that Negumereanu has been working on his wrestling and can implement it once Potieria tires.
Daniel leans Negumereanu, citing his UFC experience, willingness to push the pace, and training at Extreme Couture. He heavily criticizes Potieria's record, noting he fought mostly cans, was dropped by a fat 5'9" heavyweight, and even took an amateur fight in 2019. He thinks Negumereanu's grit and pressure will be too much for Potieria, especially in a deep-water fight. He missed the line at +145 and is now +110, so he passes on betting.
Preet got in on Negumereanu at +125 earlier in the week, citing the padded record of Potieria and the low level of competition he faced. He notes Potieria was dropped by an 'ice cream vendor' and that Negumereanu's durability and grimy style should carry him. He is unsure of the method but happy with the plus money.
Paul leans Negumereanu but is not passionate. He notes that Potieria's record is suspicious with many amateur fights on the same day and possible padding. He thinks Negumereanu is more experienced at a higher level and can take a punch. He also mentions that Potieria has cardio issues and that Negumereanu could take over in later rounds. He says it's a good live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Nicolae Negumereanu by TKO in the first round. He expects Ihor Potieria to start fast with big shots and create chaos, but once things calm down, Negumereanu will find his range, chop the legs, and land a big shot to finish. The Guru emphasizes Negumereanu's patience and defense as key factors.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks César Almeida, citing his superior striking and kickboxing background, including a win over Alex Pereira. He notes Ihor Potieria is hittable and has poor takedown defense, but Almeida is the better striker. He wishes Almeida were more affordable at -400 but expects the win.
Big Brady confidently picks César Almeida, noting that Potieria will likely attempt takedowns but has poor wrestling (0 for 10 or 11 in the UFC). He believes Almeida will stuff takedowns and out-strike Potieria, eventually breaking him and winning by second-round knockout.
Cody picks Almeida, calling Potieria a 'bum' and noting Almeida's striking pedigree. He believes Potieria's poor chin and cardio will be exposed, and that Almeida will win by knockout. He dismisses Potieria's grappling threat.
Connor is confident Almeida will win, noting that Potieria's boxing is unstructured and he leaves massive openings. Almeida's low kicks will disrupt Potieria's tricky strikes, and Almeida's kickboxing pedigree should overwhelm Potieria, who cannot challenge him in that realm.
Daniel Vreeland leans toward César Almeida due to his superior kickboxing background, including a trilogy with Alex Pereira. However, he is concerned about Almeida's age (36) and transitioning to MMA, as he can be taken down. Vreeland notes that Potieria has improved and could win if he gets the fight to the mat, but he favors Almeida's striking.
The host acknowledges that Almeida let down many people last time against Roman Kopylov by not showing urgency to get back to his feet. However, he believes Potieria lacks that type of grappling and will be forced to strike with the better striker, leading to Almeida finding a knockout.
Paul is hesitant to pick either fighter. He acknowledges Almeida's flaws and Potieria's puncher's chance but doesn't like the minus 350 price. He calls it a 'dogger pass' and doesn't commit.
The MMA Guru picks César Almeida over Ihor Potieria, citing Almeida's superior striking and fewer flaws. He notes Almeida trains with Alex Pereira, which helps with takedown defense and striking. He believes Potieria makes mistakes on the feet and won't get takedowns, and at altitude, Almeida's better striking defense will prevail. He predicts Almeida gets the win.
Zane agrees, stating that Almeida is a great MMA kickboxer who will exploit Potieria's defensive flaws. He notes that Potieria's one-and-done strikes leave him out of position, and Almeida's low kicks will neutralize his boxing. This is a perfect matchup for a kickboxer dabbling in MMA.
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