UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Next Fight
Age 24
Height 5' 3"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Iasmin Lucindo
3.22 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
2.8 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
2.28 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
4.51 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.27 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Iasmin Lucindo - Fight History
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 72 of 151 47% 100 of 187 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:37
Angela Hill 0 64 of 110 58% 80 of 129 0 of 5 0% 1 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 27 of 68 39% 28 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Angela Hill 0 25 of 46 54% 26 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 28 of 50 56% 30 of 52 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Angela Hill 0 31 of 54 57% 38 of 63 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:46
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 33 51% 42 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:55
Angela Hill 0 8 of 10 80% 16 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 72 of 151 47% 56 of 128 12 of 19 4 of 4 57 of 130 11 of 17 4 of 4
Angela Hill 64 of 110 58% 42 of 84 19 of 23 3 of 3 52 of 92 12 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 27 of 68 39% 19 of 57 6 of 9 2 of 2 22 of 58 5 of 10 0 of 0
Angela Hill 25 of 46 54% 18 of 38 5 of 6 2 of 2 22 of 41 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 28 of 50 56% 21 of 42 6 of 7 1 of 1 22 of 43 6 of 7 0 of 0
Angela Hill 31 of 54 57% 19 of 39 11 of 14 1 of 1 22 of 41 9 of 13 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Angela Hill 8 of 10 80% 5 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Angela Hill vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-190); Hill (+150)

Round 1
While the previous match had an age difference of eight years, this strawweight pairing may make UFC history as Lucindo (17-6, 4-2 UFC) is just about 17 years younger than ultra-active veteran Hill (18-14, 13-14 UFC). Someone with a mind for stats and figures should look into that. Taking responsibility of the match will be referee Chris Tognoni, who witnesses the “featured fight of the night” combatants think about bumping fists but ultimately not doing it.
Lucindo gets right in Hill’s face with short check hooks. Hill does not like them and considers clinching up, only for the younger woman to turn it against her and get a body lock from behind. Lucindo leaps onto Hill’s back, dragging her down from behind. Hill works right back up, fighting the hands clasped around her waist to she can break out of the position. Lucindo leans heavily on the elder stateswoman, and Hill trips her down for a second. When Lucindo climbs back up, Hill knees her in the face. They proceed to bang it out for a short spell until Hill elbows her way out, and Hill rushes back in behind her elbow strike. Hill dives down after a single, and Lucindo stands her up and just misses on a counter elbow. Hill scores, and Lucindo counters with a big left hook that makes Hill step back.
The Brazilian connects with a body kick right before Hill’s overhand right response lands, and the latter follows her punch with a front kick to the stomach. Lucindo sits down on her big right hand, getting Hill’s attention, and she follows with two punches down the pipe when Hill offers back a low kick. Lucindo crowds Hill and clubs her with multiple hooks, laying into the veteran with a series of punches that spur Hill into a takedown shot. Lucindo bullies “Overkill” to the fence and breaks off with an elbow, and she sways to avoid two quick punches up top. Lucindo brushes the midsection with her foot when spinning with a back kick, and her subsequent back fist fails. The momentum of the Brazilian allows her to tackle Hill to the floor, and when the horn sounds, she helps Hill back to her feet.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The ladies do not need more than a second or two to engage in the second round, with Lucindo’s power the difference maker in their exchanges. Hill takes several punches and goes wild with a spinning wheel kick, turning to flow with a back fist then gripping hold of the younger woman’s neck to tighten up a guillotine choke while standing. Lucindo gets out of it, but not before taking an elbow on the dome. Lucindo does not back down, cracking Hill with clubbing hooks and forcing Hill to reel. Lucindo lands with two of three looping punches, and Hill sneaks in a right hand back. Lucindo pops Hill in the chops with her heavier left hand, and Hill has to clinch up to slow Lucindo down. Lucindo tries to muscle her way out, and only a Hill winging elbow allows Lucindo to get free.
The two women crash together throwing hands, and they bang heads together while doing so. This does not slow them, as Hill muscles Lucindo to the wall after landing strikes. Lucindo frees herself from the grip and leans into power punches. The Brazilian plants a spinning back kick from up close to the stomach, and she goes to the spin well with an elbow that Hill sees coming. Hill flicks out a few jabs, and she overswings and finds Lucindo ducking under to grab her from behind. Hill works her way to lean against the fencing, and Lucindo hangs on kneeing her until she kicks out Hill’s leg and wrenches her to the floor. Lucindo clings to her opponent’s back until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 3
The strawweights meet in the middle and throw hands, with Lucindo’s right driving Hill back out of the gate. Hill is quick to respond, but Lucindo’s fast-swinging hooks keep backing Hill off. Lucindo takes strikes on the chin and hurls back not only harder, but with more volume. Hill scoops up Lucindo’s legs suddenly to throw her to the floor, and Lucindo practically bounces off the mat to get to her feet. When Hill scores cleanly, Lucindo drills her square in the jaw and makes her take several steps back. Lucindo continues pressing forward, tackling the longtime vet to the floor and landing in side control. To remain in control, the Brazilian relocates into half guard. Hill sits up, and Lucindo elbows her in the back of the head. Hill keeps twisting in hopes of escaping,
Lucindo embraces the grind, wresting away any hopes of Hill staging a comeback. Hill tries to buck and kick off, and Lucindo puts her face on Hill’s face. Tognoni warns Lucindo for grinding her chin into Hill’s eye, which at one point in the sport’s history was legal as evidenced by Hall of Famer Mark Kerr’s past victory over Dan Bobish. Lucindo does not engage with much additional offense other than sporadic ground-and-pound to stave of Tognoni. He calls for them to do more, and Lucindo lashes out with elbows and punches as the match concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo (30-27 Lucindo)

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo leans Iasmin Lucindo, thinking she will bully her way to a win with powerful strikes and gritty wrestling. He notes Angela Hill is a crafty veteran with good speed and volume but no power. However, Hill could win by staying on her bike and avoiding the clinch. Angelo advises not betting on this fight.

Advises not betting on this fight.
"I'm going to lean Eisman because I think she like literally will bully her way to a win."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Big Brady hesitantly picks Angela Hill, acknowledging she may be regressing but believes she still has more volume on the feet and improved takedown defense. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to a split decision. He is not betting on her, as he lacks confidence.

split decision
"I'll pick Hill with not a ton of confidence, but I'll pick her to win a very close decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

Connor picks Angela Hill, citing her improved fight management and veteran savvy. He notes that Lucindo is aimless and struggled when faced with a fighter she had to respect (Amanda Lemos). Connor believes Hill's pressure, volume, and clinch work will be enough to win a close decision, though he acknowledges Lucindo's speed and power could swing rounds.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I think I'll take Angela Hill. I mean, I think either way it's going to be close."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Angela Hill

The host notes Lucindo struggles when she can't get takedowns, and Hill has shown defensive improvements in grappling. He believes Hill can stop takedowns or get back to her feet quickly, then use her striking advantage to outweigh Lucindo's control and win on the scorecards by landing more damage.

"We've seen Lucindo struggle when she can't get takedowns or be the one on top. And we've seen enough defensive improvements from Hill in the grappling realm that I think she can either stop the takedowns, get back to her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Angela Hill

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill as an upset, citing her volume striking and clinch work. He believes Lucindo can't finish Hill and that Hill's activity will win her a close decision. He notes Hill has been robbed before but expects her to get the nod this time.

"I think Angela Hill is going to win a close decision here. Maybe this is another upset."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane leans toward Lucindo, arguing that Hill cannot put the fear in Lucindo that Lemos did, allowing Lucindo to be more proactive. He notes that Lucindo is faster and more dynamic than Hill's recent opponents, and that Hill's wins over similar fighters (Sosa, Pinheiro) were close. However, he admits it could easily be a split decision and that Hill's experience is a factor.

Odds mentioned: Lucindo opened -200, currently -200; Hill opened +170, currently +170.
"I just don't think that Angela Hill can put that fear in her. And so without that, I think she can be a lot more willing to just sit down and throw and do enough damage to scrape out a …"
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
WIN vs Polyana Viana
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:42 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 10 of 25 40% 41 of 68 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 10 of 24 41% 31 of 48 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 6 of 12 50% 26 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:58
Polyana Viana 0 6 of 12 50% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:21
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 13 30% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 24 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 10 of 25 40% 2 of 15 4 of 6 4 of 4 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 10 of 24 41% 5 of 18 4 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 6 of 12 50% 2 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 6 of 12 50% 3 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 13 30% 0 of 7 2 of 4 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Polyana Viana 4 of 12 33% 2 of 9 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Polyana Viana vs. Iasmin Lucindo
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lucindo (-198), Viana (+164)

Round 1
Multiple fighters on this billing celebrate 100% finish rates, and Brazilian Viana (13-5, 4-4 UFC) is one of them. In fact, she has landed 12 of her 13 victories in the first round, with her latest a minute and change into Round 2. This likely means that youthful countrywoman Lucindo (14-5, 1-1 UFC) will need to be on her guard and not fall into any early traps if she hopes to put herself on a win streak. Standing by will be referee Chris Tognoni, and the bout opens up as the strawweight clap hands. Viana leads off with a kick that whizzes past the target, and Lucindo counters with a clubbing left hand that staggers Viana briefly. Viana gathers her thoughts and whips down a leg kick, and she partially checks one that eventually comes back her way. Viana scores a low kick and a punch, and she decks Lucindo in the face with her shin. Lucindo tries to punch back, and Viana closes in and grabs hold of her. Viana looks for a takedown, and she slugs Lucindo in the face a few times before dragging her down to the mat violently. Lucindo closes up her guard to try to stall things out, and Viana stays heavily pressed to her to keep her otherwise grounded. Tognoni asks for Viana to do more than sit there, and Viana does not improve her position or attack with anything else. Tognoni once again tells Viana to do something, and Lucindo is clinging tightly to shut down anything. Tognoni stands them up, and Viana helps her opponent to her feet and then offers a glove touch. Lucindo spins with a back kick that grazes off the side, and she misses with a back fist and ends up getting her leg grabbed in the air. Viana looks for a level change, but it is Lucindo who ends up tripping her up and throwing “Dama de Ferro” down to the mat. Viana hits her back and ignores light, frustrating punches bopping her on the side of the head. Viana turns to her side to potentially escape, and Tognoni now asks Lucindo to work. Lucindo postures up with a few hammerfists, and Viana kicks her off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lucindo

Round 2
The strawweight bump fists together to start off the second stanza, and after a lull, Lucindo springs into action with a head kick and spinning back kick. Lucindo strings together a right and a left, and she hurts Viana. “Dama de Ferro” bounces off the cage wall and shakes out any cobwebs, and Lucindo does not give her chase or pressure her one iota. Instead, Lucindo lets Viana back in the fight, as she slowly works her way forward and tosses out a blocked overhand right. Lucindo spins with a kick that ricochets off the guard, and she tries to boot the ribs only to have that blocked as well. Lucindo drills Viana with a fierce overhand right, and Viana wobbles but does not fall down. Lucindo does not follow it with anything, allowing Viana to shake it off and spin at her with a back fist and keep turning into a body kick. Lucindo meets her in the middle and tackles her to the ground, where she plops on top in half guard. Lucindo smothers and grinds without the occasional short punch. Viana has no offense of her own, prompting Tognoni to tell Lucindo to do something.
Lucindo looks to pass over to three-quarter mount, and she suddenly attacks with an arm-triangle choke. Jumping straight over to the side, the submission is complete and Viana has nothing left to offer. One single tap comes from Viana, and Tognoni recognizes it and pulls the two apart.
For the first time since 2019, Lucindo forced an opponent to tap out, doing so over a woman in Viana that typically is the one submitting others.

The Official Result
Iasmin Lucindo def. Polyana Viana R2 3:42 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo, trusting her takedown ability and top pressure. He notes Viana is a BJJ threat but Lucindo's defense should hold up. He expects a decision win.

"I think this is an Eisman lucindo fight all day"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by decision, but hates the pick. He notes Lucindo's striking advantage and ability to win minutes, but fears Viana's submission threat, especially the armbar from guard. He says there are two outcomes: Lucindo by decision or Viana by submission. He chooses Lucindo because she has more paths to victory, but will not bet the fight.

"give me a Lucinda by decision I I hate it um but it's got to be the pick right"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, praising her scrappy style, speed, cardio, and volume. He criticizes Viana's inconsistency and inability to get takedowns against good competition. He thinks Lucindo's strength will prevent takedowns and that she will outwork Viana on the feet. He acknowledges the risk in women's MMA but is confident Lucindo gets the job done.

Lucindo under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Yasmine lucindo to get the job done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

James picks Lucindo, believing she is a good fighter with strong ground skills. He thinks Lucindo's jiu-jitsu is better than Viana's and that she can even submit Viana. He notes Viana's only path to victory is on the ground, but Lucindo is likely better there. James sees value on Lucindo at the current odds, thinking she should be a bigger favorite.

"I think Lucindo's value here... I don't think she should be worse than minus 250 in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is young but has good training partners and experience. Viana is an aggressive BJJ black belt who finishes early or fades. Lucindo should be able to use Viana's recklessness against her with takedowns and forward pressure to win a decision. It's a close fight, and a value shot on Viana is not bad, but Lucindo is cleaner.

Lucindo by decision
"I still think that lucindo is clean enough to win this fight over 50 minutes and get her hand raised"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana by submission or inside the distance, citing the armbar from guard as a real threat. He thinks Lucindo might be hesitant to take Viana down due to her submission skills, and if the fight goes to the ground, Viana has a clear advantage. However, he admits he's not confident and may not bet it, as he understands Cody's points about Lucindo's volume and strength.

Viana by submission or inside the distance; mentions armbar from guard
"Viana by sub or Fiona inside the distance would be my official pick but I don't know if I'm gonna actually bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru initially considered Polyana Viana but switched to Iasmin Lucindo, noting Lucindo's better competition and ability to go three rounds. He mentions Lucindo's wins over Brogan Walker and Yasmine Uruguay, and her experience against Sarah Frota. He believes most people are picking Viana incorrectly and that Lucindo will win.

"I'm going with Yasmine Lucindo over polyana Viana here"
WIN vs Brogan Walker
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · Apr 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 53 of 118 44% 57 of 123 4 of 5 80% 0 0 0:46
Brogan Walker 0 29 of 145 20% 31 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brogan Walker 0 8 of 50 16% 8 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 11 of 29 37% 15 of 34 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:44
Brogan Walker 0 12 of 42 28% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:02
Brogan Walker 0 9 of 53 16% 9 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 53 of 118 44% 33 of 93 19 of 23 1 of 2 51 of 115 2 of 2 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 29 of 145 20% 6 of 99 13 of 22 10 of 24 22 of 137 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 17 of 43 39% 13 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 1 16 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 8 of 50 16% 1 of 33 3 of 6 4 of 11 7 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 11 of 29 37% 7 of 24 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 1
Brogan Walker 12 of 42 28% 2 of 27 6 of 7 4 of 8 8 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 46 54% 13 of 32 12 of 14 0 of 0 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brogan Walker 9 of 53 16% 3 of 39 4 of 9 2 of 5 7 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo confidently, based on his notes from Brogan Walker's last fight where she showed awful takedown defense. He believes Lucindo will get takedowns and dominate on the ground, similar to what Juliana Miller did. He notes Lucindo struggled in her last fight but that was a tougher matchup. He is waiting for props to drop, possibly betting on under 2.5 rounds.

Waiting for props, possibly under 2.5 rounds.
"Eisman's definitely the pick a hundred percent the pick she should beat the absolute piss out of Brogan Walker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo to win by second-round TKO. He notes that Lucindo is a 21-year-old prospect with good grappling and ground-and-pound, and that Brogan Walker showed zero takedown defense in her last fight against Juliana Miller, who dominated her. Brady expects Lucindo to take Walker down, beat her up, and finish her on top. He has a bad feeling because of the young age and big favorite status, but still picks Lucindo.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna take lucianu to get the first I'll say second round second round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo despite the high price, using logic over the 'Pac-Man theory' of backing big underdogs. He notes Lucindo is young (20), fast, strong, and aggressive, with a cast-iron chin. He criticizes Brogan Walker as slow and flat-footed, with poor defense. Cody believes Lucindo will land power shots and possibly get a second-round stoppage. However, he admits he won't bet this fight.

"Lucinda's the pick but yeah come Saturday night you know what's gonna happen I know what's gonna happen and there's nothing I can do about it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Brogan Walker

Connor picks Brogan Walker (referred to as 'cash aware' in transcript), reasoning that she is a disciplined puncher who has improved her striking. He notes that Lucindo (Silva) has good submissions off her back but rarely initiates takedowns, and that Walker's pressure will likely put Lucindo on the mat. Connor trusts Walker to land the punch that hurts Lucindo over a Hail Mary submission.

"I'll pick cash aware. I don't know. I'll pick the person that I trust to land the punch that hurts somebody over the get the submit."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo, emphasizing that Walker's fight against Miller showed she is unwilling to engage in striking and has poor balance. He notes that Lucindo is aggressive, hits hard, and makes adjustments, as seen in her fight against a tough opponent. He also points out that Walker's only path is a takedown and grind, but she lacks the coordination to do so.

"I think Brogan Walker is in for a very bad night."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a grapple-heavy fighter with good top control and pressure. She trains with Virna Jandiroba, which should help her grappling. Brogan Walker has shown inconsistent takedown defense and can be overwhelmed by forward pressure. However, Lucindo is young and inexperienced at the UFC level, and Walker has a win over Miranda Maverick, showing she can pull off upsets. Lucindo should return to her grappling and grind out a decision, but it's a risky spot with low confidence.

Lucindo by decision
"I think lucindo has a pretty bright future in the UFC... prediction will still be Lucinda lucindo by decision but very be very wary about the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul also picks Lucindo, impressed by her performance against Yazmin Jauregui despite the loss. He sees her as a top prospect with a bright future. He notes she proved she belongs at this level and has a lot of potential. Paul also says he won't bet this fight.

"I'll be picking lucindo as well I think she's got a lot of potential moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, aided by a coin flip. He notes Brogan Walker's loss to Juliana Miller and age, while Lucindo had a good performance against Yasmine Urigui and a long win streak. He thinks Lucindo's technique is solid and that this should be a lock. He predicts a win for Lucindo.

"we're gonna go Lucindo... me and the coin think alike you know I mean genius at women's MMA predictions"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Iasmin Lucindo (Silva), arguing that she has a clear grappling advantage and that it would be foolish for her not to try takedowns. He refuses to consider that she wouldn't attempt takedowns against Walker, who is a terrible grappler. Zane believes Lucindo's submissions off her back are a threat, and that Walker's lack of grappling knowledge will be exploited.

"I'm going to take her. I refuse to consider the idea that she would fight cash with it and be like, and just refuse to even try a take down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane picks Lucindo confidently, noting that she is much more technical, fluid, and combination-savvy than Walker. He points out that Walker struggled against Juliana Miller, who is less skilled than Lucindo, and that Walker's inability to throw more than one strike without getting off balance will be exploited. He also mentions Lucindo's speed and power.

"Lucindo just seems frankly, just way too athletic."
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Cruz · Aug 13, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 86 of 218 39% 87 of 219 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Iasmin Lucindo 0 66 of 181 36% 66 of 181 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 31 of 77 40% 31 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Iasmin Lucindo 0 25 of 60 41% 25 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 30 of 69 43% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Iasmin Lucindo 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:20
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 25 of 72 34% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Iasmin Lucindo 0 18 of 62 29% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 86 of 218 39% 52 of 159 9 of 25 25 of 34 81 of 210 5 of 8 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 66 of 181 36% 42 of 148 15 of 22 9 of 11 64 of 179 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 31 of 77 40% 16 of 55 2 of 4 13 of 18 29 of 72 2 of 5 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 25 of 60 41% 15 of 49 7 of 8 3 of 3 23 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 30 of 69 43% 17 of 48 5 of 11 8 of 10 27 of 66 3 of 3 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 23 of 59 38% 17 of 50 3 of 6 3 of 3 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 25 of 72 34% 19 of 56 2 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 18 of 62 29% 10 of 49 5 of 8 3 of 5 18 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo loves Yazmin Jauregui, citing her powerful striking, combinations, and solid takedown defense. He thinks the -240 odds are correct but is hesitant to bet due to both making their UFC debut. He expects the line to move and recommends jumping on it early.

Odds comment: -240 is correct, line will move
"i absolutely love yasmin in this fight obviously there's some questions around her takedown defense and her bjj off her back but i think i've watched enough tape to see just how solid that defense is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by first-round knockout. He describes Jauregui as a savage who comes forward, eats punches to land her own, and has power. He thinks Lucindo is not quite ready for the UFC level and that Jauregui's takedown defense and grappling will hold up. He expects Jauregui to overwhelm Lucindo and finish her in the first round.

first round knockout
"i think she finishes lucinda here i think she does in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody also leans toward Jauregui, calling her the right favorite but not wanting heavy investment. He notes Lucindo is very green and relies on getting the fight to the ground, while Jauregui has better striking and takedown defense. He considers this a pass due to the uncertainty.

"i don't know that i would want a ton of investment here but i think she is the right favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Levi is unsure about this fight. He notes that Jauregui has a clear edge on the feet with power and aggression, while Lucindo has a grappling advantage. He says if the fight stays standing, Jauregui wins; if it goes to the mat, Lucindo wins. He picks Lucindo as a dog but with low confidence.

"I guess I'll go Lucindo because since I'm not obvious about the favorite I'll go with the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2022 (fight day)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Jauregui, noting she has solid power and good volume. He thinks she will eventually get the finish, and suggests playing her KO straight up at +250 or first round KO at +700. He believes Lucindo is a short-notice replacement but has experience, though he doesn't think it's a good matchup for her.

Jauregui by KO at +250; Jauregui round 1 KO at +700 (considering).
"i think eventually she'll get the finish i think the safer way to play is just play ko straight up which is still getting about plus 250"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Paul leans toward Jauregui, noting she is more well-rounded with good striking and footwork. He acknowledges Lucindo's wrestling and top game but thinks Jauregui can keep the fight standing and piece her up. However, he is not confident due to the low level of competition and both fighters being young and making debuts.

"i think she'll probably keep the fight standing for the most part stop the takedowns when need be and kind of piece her up from range"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 8, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

The host picks Yazmin Jauregui, citing her undefeated record and improvement against better competition. He notes she had more time to prepare for the fight and has momentum from a tournament win. However, he admits uncertainty about both fighters and wouldn't be surprised by an upset.

"i'm going to be going with yasmin jaurudjie"
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
KO R2 2:07 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 17 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 41 39% 73 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 13 15% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 25 44% 42 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 41 39% 12 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 13 15% 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 11 of 25 44% 7 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 16 31% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

"Jillian is the pick. And because Marina is so battle tested, this could be a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

Decision win
"Got to be Robertson here. Um she's much younger. Um I think she's been looking great at Strowway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

submission
"I fully expect Robertson to grind this fight out, landing those opportune takedowns and taking advantage of the poor takedown defense and getups of Rodriguez, which should eventually lead to Robertson landing and securing a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

underdog pick at +260, possible third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Marina Rodriguez pulling off the upset here as a plus 260 underdog."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 33 of 99 33% 65 of 134 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Marina Rodriguez 0 30 of 73 41% 55 of 104 3 of 4 75% 0 1 4:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 5 of 25 20% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 33 33% 20 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 16 of 37 43% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 24 41% 24 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:08
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 12 of 37 32% 26 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 9 of 16 56% 11 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 33 of 99 33% 28 of 89 5 of 7 0 of 3 28 of 92 3 of 5 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 30 of 73 41% 19 of 56 9 of 13 2 of 4 27 of 68 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 5 of 25 20% 4 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 33 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 2 of 4 10 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Iasmin Lucindo 16 of 37 43% 13 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 1 14 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 24 41% 6 of 20 4 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 2 2 of 2
Marina Rodriguez 9 of 16 56% 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jéssica Andrade 0 89 of 180 49% 124 of 220 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:53
Marina Rodriguez 0 82 of 228 35% 94 of 241 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jéssica Andrade 0 14 of 23 60% 49 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Marina Rodriguez 0 16 of 36 44% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jéssica Andrade 0 42 of 86 48% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Marina Rodriguez 0 35 of 107 32% 35 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jéssica Andrade 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
Marina Rodriguez 0 31 of 85 36% 32 of 86 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jéssica Andrade 89 of 180 49% 35 of 110 14 of 18 40 of 52 79 of 165 7 of 11 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 82 of 228 35% 70 of 207 9 of 17 3 of 4 77 of 220 5 of 6 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jéssica Andrade 14 of 23 60% 2 of 7 1 of 2 11 of 14 11 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 4
Marina Rodriguez 16 of 36 44% 9 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jéssica Andrade 42 of 86 48% 21 of 59 8 of 11 13 of 16 35 of 75 7 of 11 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 35 of 107 32% 34 of 104 1 of 3 0 of 0 33 of 104 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jéssica Andrade 33 of 71 46% 12 of 44 5 of 5 16 of 22 33 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 31 of 85 36% 27 of 75 4 of 9 0 of 1 28 of 81 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.

"I am going to go Marina Rodriguez here she's just the better fighter and she's going to keep Jessica at the end of her strikes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.

"Marina seems like the best women's fighter on the card in terms of springing the upset by just catching a draw with that counter right hand so I'm going to go with Reena Rodriguez."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I actually, I actually feel reasonably confident in Rodriguez here. I mean, I think Jessica looked against all odds and expectations. She looked like she recaptured her confidence against Mackenzie Dern."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.

"I got Andrade"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.

"whoever wins between Jessica Andrade and Marina Rodriguez are either going to fight for the title next or more than likely be in a number one contenders spot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.

decision
"I think we see Andra win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.

"I wanted to disagree with you but I'm going to side with you cuz all I do is pick woman's under dos one of them's going to hit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.

"I'm going with Marina Rodriguez by TKO because there is no way in hell I'm picking a girl to win a fight that just made me believe that Erin blanchfield has ever thrown a punch before in her life."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.

Odds: Andrade opened -112, now -135; Rodriguez opened -112, now +122. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I'm going to go with you and pick, uh, pick Rodriguez here. I just, I do think that without the clinch to fall into, it's a really bad matchup for András."
TKO (punches) R2 2:42 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 70 of 102 68% 90 of 130 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 13 of 32 40% 16 of 37 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 51 of 75 68% 67 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:07
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 10 of 20 50% 13 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:09
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 19 of 27 70% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 70 of 102 68% 47 of 70 22 of 30 1 of 2 12 of 23 53 of 73 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 13 of 32 40% 7 of 23 5 of 7 1 of 2 4 of 17 7 of 9 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 51 of 75 68% 38 of 56 13 of 19 0 of 0 6 of 13 45 of 62 0 of 0
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 10 of 20 50% 5 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 6 of 7 2 of 6
2 Marina Rodriguez 19 of 27 70% 9 of 14 9 of 11 1 of 2 6 of 10 8 of 11 5 of 6
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 3 of 12 25% 2 of 8 1 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, potentially plus 3.5 on Michelle
"I trust Marina just to smidge more in this matchup to push the action keep her boxing in Michelle's face"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.

"give me a give me Rodriguez here to win this fight and win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.

"I'm sure I'm using too many words on this fight at this point so let's just go ahead and call it a marina Rodriguez by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.

considers laying -300 straight; mentions -3.5 point spread as an option
"I think Marina Rodriguez is going to double her up on strikes for at least two of the rounds and hold on for deer life in that one round that she does get taken down I think she covers this …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.

under 2.5 rounds +260 considered; Rodriguez KO considered
"Marina Rodriguez gonna beat her up... she's a clear favorite in this spot."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.

"give me Rodriguez and I think she wins this fight by decision and a minus 300 but the line makes sense"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.

Over 70.5 significant strikes for Rodriguez on PrizePicks.
"I like Rodriguez but you know me I'm never getting to a minus 300. the CF dog just tells me to pass... I'll take a little sprinkle on some of my prize picks entries on Rodriguez over uh 70.5 significant …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.

"Rodriguez here... Marina Rodriguez is going to win she lost to Amanda Lemos by early stoppage it was an early stoppage 100..."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · May 06, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 33 of 62 53% 115 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 27 of 43 62% 91 of 116 3 of 7 42% 0 1 12:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 7 of 9 77% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:36
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 5 of 11 45% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 16 68% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 1 4:06
3 Virna Jandiroba 0 21 of 42 50% 70 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 12 of 20 60% 26 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 33 of 62 53% 27 of 52 5 of 8 1 of 2 10 of 37 3 of 3 20 of 22
Marina Rodriguez 27 of 43 62% 25 of 41 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 22 5 of 5 15 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 6
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Virna Jandiroba 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 3 of 3 8 of 8
3 Virna Jandiroba 21 of 42 50% 19 of 37 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 28 1 of 1 11 of 13
Marina Rodriguez 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.

do not bet on this fight - feels like a trap
"Marina's gonna be the pick but for just absolute shit's sake do not bet on this fight this feels like a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.

Second round submission prediction
"I'm actually going to go with we're going to generobo to win this fight by submission I think she's going to get a ton of opportunities here to get that submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.

"I would take the plus money shot here on gender Robo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116.
"I think I have to agree with that with not a whole lot to add."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.

"I'm hoping from the improvements that we've been seeing from Rodriguez over our last several fights she'll be able to keep this fight upright land the more significant strikes and get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 3, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.

"I took a stale plus 140 the market moved a little bit but I still think I like plus 125s"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.

decision win
"I'm gonna side with Marina Rodriguez here ... bouncing back with a decision win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 4, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.

Rodriguez opened -190, now -128; Jandiroba opened +169, now +116; odds tightening but Zane thinks it's not deserved.
"I just don't trust Jandiroba to get into the kind of insane exchanges that Rodriguez creates one way or the other."
LOSS vs Amanda Lemos
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
WIN vs Yan Xiaonan
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 72 of 200 36% 79 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Yan Xiaonan 0 56 of 132 42% 66 of 143 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 18 of 48 37% 18 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yan Xiaonan 0 24 of 54 44% 25 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 14 of 45 31% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Yan Xiaonan 0 14 of 34 41% 22 of 43 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 40 of 107 37% 41 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Yan Xiaonan 0 18 of 44 40% 19 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 72 of 200 36% 46 of 166 18 of 19 8 of 15 59 of 182 13 of 18 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 56 of 132 42% 37 of 105 7 of 9 12 of 18 48 of 121 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 18 of 48 37% 9 of 35 4 of 5 5 of 8 16 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 24 of 54 44% 18 of 42 2 of 4 4 of 8 21 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 14 of 45 31% 9 of 38 4 of 4 1 of 3 9 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 14 of 34 41% 7 of 26 4 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 29 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 40 of 107 37% 28 of 93 10 of 10 2 of 4 34 of 99 6 of 8 0 of 0
Yan Xiaonan 18 of 44 40% 12 of 37 1 of 1 5 of 6 16 of 42 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.

plus 3.5 round bet on Yan Xiaonan
"marina is the pick here because we've only seen yon execute wrestling a wrestle heavy game plan one time"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.

Rodriguez by decision
"i'm gonna take marina rodriguez to win i'm gonna take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.

"i got marina rodriguez i think she's the rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.

plus 250 odds
"i'm going with the ann zhaonan to edge out this decision so let's catch this plus 250"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Yan Xiaonan

The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.

Yan via decision
"this is a coin flip of a fight maybe even again 55 percent uh marina rodriguez at best but i think it's a 50 50 fight and at these odds the clear pick has got to be yan zhaonen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.

"i think it is mourinho rodriguez for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.

"i'm going with marina rodriguez by decision 30 27 she pieces apart yan zhaonan in a competitive fight for three rounds"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 49 of 174 28% 80 of 209 1 of 8 12% 1 1 7:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 144 of 279 51% 148 of 284 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 5 of 17 29% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Mackenzie Dern 0 24 of 49 48% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 22 45% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 1 1 4:21
Mackenzie Dern 0 1 of 6 16% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 35 22% 8 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Mackenzie Dern 0 45 of 91 49% 47 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Marina Rodriguez 0 15 of 54 27% 21 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 65 56% 37 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 46 23% 11 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:41
Mackenzie Dern 0 37 of 68 54% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 49 of 174 28% 41 of 158 4 of 10 4 of 6 36 of 155 1 of 3 12 of 16
Mackenzie Dern 144 of 279 51% 72 of 186 39 of 58 33 of 35 124 of 257 20 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 5 of 17 29% 4 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 2 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 24 of 49 48% 9 of 31 10 of 12 5 of 6 19 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Marina Rodriguez 10 of 22 45% 10 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 9 of 13
Mackenzie Dern 1 of 6 16% 0 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Marina Rodriguez 8 of 35 22% 7 of 31 0 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 45 of 91 49% 28 of 66 8 of 15 9 of 10 37 of 82 8 of 9 0 of 0
4 Marina Rodriguez 15 of 54 27% 12 of 50 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 49 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 65 56% 14 of 36 13 of 19 10 of 10 34 of 61 3 of 4 0 of 0
5 Marina Rodriguez 11 of 46 23% 8 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 37 of 68 54% 21 of 49 8 of 11 8 of 8 33 of 64 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.

Marina Rodriguez money line at +145 (1 unit)
"I'm picking Marina Rodriguez. I have a money line on her at plus 145."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.

win by submission
"i will pick mackenzie during for the win and i'll take her to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.

live betting Dern after early rounds; third or fourth round submission or decision
"i'll go with dern because i think eventually this fight is going to hit the ground and that'll be her moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.

submission finish
"ultimately i do see mckenzie during getting this fight to the mat and finishing via submission so i'm gonna go with mckenzie dern to submit marina rodriguez"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.

Mackenzie Dern by submission at +150 (FanDuel); 20 units on Dern money line
"Mackenzie Dern lock of the week for like four or five in a row, I think. I won the 10 units last week. I'm going 20 units on Dern. Let's go after it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.

Dern by submission +150; fight doesn't go to decision -210; Dern by TKO +1400 (mentioned as possible but less likely)
"I gotta go with the grappler in this fight... I'm going to go mackenzie dern via second round submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.

"i'm leaning towards dern right now but i want to hear your take"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.

Rodriguez by unanimous decision; recommends betting on Rodriguez as underdog
"i'm actually going to go with marina rodriguez here as an underdog... i think she's much better than mackenzie durn... if i was you guys i'd get some money on her right now before the odds change"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.

No bet due to elevation concerns
"I am on the eisan lucendo side... but the fact that I need her to be in phenomenal shape and grind for 15 minutes does worry me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.

"I got to go lendo here minus 190 it is a little crazy like she is only 22 years old she hasn't proven a ton but I just think that you know she's getting Rodriguez here at the at the right time so I'm going to go lucendo to win …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.

"I'll take the dog shot here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.

"I'm going to take the Lucendo pick. Yeah. I will too. Why not? Just take the chance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.

"I think lucendo is going to play this SM she's a young veteran 22 years old"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.

"I will have to lean with the veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez I think she's the better Striker here and I don't think lucendo does a good enough job in terms of controlling her opponents on the mat"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.

"plus 150 I think you could do a lot worse than Marina Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.

"I'm going to go Marina Rodriguez better performances against better comp"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.

"Might just take the speed pick for Lucendo just to go out there and surprise her and be young and improving."