Dalcha Lungiambula

Angelo picks Shahbazyan despite his three-fight losing streak, because Lungiambula has terrible cardio and tends to gas out after wrestling. He notes that Shahbazyan's takedown defense is suspect (57%) and Lungiambula is a judo black belt who could take him down, but Lungiambula's tendency to exhaust himself makes him vulnerable. Angelo warns not to put Shahbazyan in parlays as he could be a parlay buster.

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan, noting the significant step down in competition. He highlights Shahbazyan's power and well-rounded skills, while criticizing Lungiambula's poor gas tank and low volume. He expects Shahbazyan to win by second round knockout, possibly by wrestling to tire Lungiambula.

Cody picks Shahbazyan, citing his talent and that he has moved to a new gym (Extreme Couture). He thinks Lungiambula is a gatekeeper on a losing streak and that Shahbazyan should win if he doesn't gas. He notes Shahbazyan's previous losses were to top competition and that this is a step down.

Daniel Levi picks Edmen Shahbazyan but with low confidence, calling him a 'fraud past the first round.' He notes Shahbazyan is a potent first-round finisher but has broken every time he's gone past the first round. Levi acknowledges Dalcha Lungiambula's power and experience in later rounds, but thinks Shahbazyan may catch him early. He warns against laying the -280 price and says if Shahbazyan doesn't finish in the first, he will likely quit. Levi picks Shahbazyan by first-round finish but advises against betting him.

Lock is on the inside the distance line for Shahbazyan, agreeing with the co-host that this is a good jumping-off point to buy in at $1.35. He thinks the move to Extreme Couture was the best thing for his career, and that the team will help him remember what he's good at and how to get finishes. He expects a rejuvenated version of Shahbazyan and believes he will put together a couple of good wins, though he doesn't expect a huge bump immediately.

Paul picks Shahbazyan but is scared off by the price. He notes Lungiambula has power and could land a shot, but thinks Shahbazyan should win. He is not confident enough to lay the juice.

Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.

Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.

Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.

Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.

Angelo picks Cody Brundage to get his first UFC win, but is nervous about Dalcha Lungiambula's knockout power. He notes that Brundage needs to grapple and wear out Dalcha, while Dalcha is low volume and has a negative striking differential. He prefers to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than the moneyline.

Big Brady picks Dalcha Lungiambula to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Lungiambula's strength, takedown defense (75%), and power, noting that Brundage will struggle to get the fight to the mat. He expects Brundage to gas out if his takedowns are stuffed, and then Lungiambula will knock him out. He references Lungiambula's improved cardio from his last fight.

Cody leans Brundage, citing his wrestling advantage. He notes Lungiambula's poor grappling defense and believes Brundage can take him down and control. He is not confident due to Brundage's chin issues.

Daniel Levi picks Dalcha Lungiambula, explaining that while Cody Brundage has a D2 wrestling background, he gets discouraged when takedowns don't work. Levi believes Dolce has African power and will dig deeper when both guys are tired. He thinks Brundage may land a takedown or two, but Dolce's willingness to push through will prevail.

Lungiambula has power and clinch work, and is training at Sanford MMA. Brundage has shown poor fight IQ and cardio issues. The fight is expected to be grapple-heavy, with Lungiambula controlling the clinch and grinding out a decision. The over 2.5 rounds is also favored.

Paul leans Lungiambula, citing his power and durability. He notes Brundage's chin issues and believes Lungiambula can land a big shot. He is not confident.

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by third-round knockout, confident. He highlights Barriault's high volume (5.36 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage over Lungiambula, who has low output and poor striking defense. Barriault has solid takedown defense (72%) and get-up game, while Lungiambula may have early takedown success but will fade. Brady expects Barriault to overwhelm Lungiambula with volume and finish late.

Cody picks Barriault by decision, citing his improved cardio and volume since moving to Sanford MMA. He notes Lungiambula's low volume and reliance on takedowns, but thinks Barriault's takedown defense and scrambling will allow him to get back up and outwork Lungiambula. He expects a unanimous decision win.

I bet Barriault for a couple of units. Dalcha is explosive but only works in bursts; his output is low and predictable. Barriault has elite output, elite cardio, and ridiculous durability. He's shown he can get up from takedowns against good wrestlers. Dalcha's cardio is suspect, especially at 185. I expect Barriault to take over as the fight goes on and likely finish in round three or win a decision. I like Barriault by decision and Barriault round three.

Paul agrees with Cody, liking Barriault to get the job done. He notes Barriault's pace and volume, and thinks Lungiambula will either get tired or be knocked out. He sees Barriault winning by decision or late stoppage.

Big Brady notes the huge line movement from Dalcha opening at -350 to now -135, which he finds interesting. He thinks Dalcha has power and better striking, while Markus Perez has a legit ground game but may not be able to get takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Dalcha, possibly by knockout, as he believes Dalcha will land the harder shots.

The host leans towards Markus Perez because he believes Perez has a more complete game and better kicks, which will make it hard for Dalcha to close distance. However, he is concerned about Perez's chin after a recent KO loss and Dalcha's power. He thinks Perez wins by decision but is not confident enough to bet at +115.