vs
+144 -145
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021 · Middleweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 33
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Derek Brunson
3.51 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
3.14 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Darren Till
2.3 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.31 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
69.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Derek Brunson
Moneyline
FanDuel +144
KO/TKO
BetMGM +400
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
FanDuel +500
Darren Till
Moneyline
BetMGM -145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +145
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
BetMGM +400
Derek Brunson - Fight History
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
LOSS vs Jared Cannonier
KO (elbows) R2 4:29 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 55 of 89 61% 61 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 1 43 of 97 44% 48 of 103 3 of 13 23% 1 0 2:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 16 of 35 45% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Derek Brunson 1 20 of 41 48% 25 of 46 2 of 9 22% 1 0 2:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 39 of 54 72% 43 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Derek Brunson 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 55 of 89 61% 42 of 75 8 of 8 5 of 6 38 of 71 12 of 13 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 43 of 97 44% 25 of 69 12 of 20 6 of 8 41 of 89 1 of 4 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 16 of 35 45% 13 of 31 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 20 of 41 48% 12 of 30 6 of 9 2 of 2 18 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 3
2 Jared Cannonier 39 of 54 72% 29 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 43 5 of 6 5 of 5
Derek Brunson 23 of 56 41% 13 of 39 6 of 11 4 of 6 23 of 54 0 of 1 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Angelo picks Cannonier, believing he can defend Brunson's takedowns and land his power shots. He notes that even when taken down, Cannonier has knocked out high-level grapplers like Hermansson and Branch. He questions Brunson's chin and thinks Kelvin Gastelum, a better wrestler, couldn't keep Cannonier down.

"i've got to go with jared here i totally understand derrick brunson's wrestling is a threat but i like jared cannanier to defend those takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Big Brady believes Cannonier's takedown defense at middleweight is excellent (85%), and he will be able to stuff Brunson's takedowns and get back up if taken down. He notes Brunson is chinny and has been knocked out five times, and Cannonier has the power to knock him out. He predicts Cannonier will end Brunson's winning streak with a first round knockout.

Cannonier by first round knockout
"i think cannonier ends the streak here for brunson... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Brunson's wins are over grapplers and that Cannonier is a tough takedown. He highlights Cannonier's strength and cardio, and expects Brunson to get desperate and clipped. He thinks the line should be closer to -250.

"i think it's a no-brainer cannon your pick as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Daniel Levi picks Jared Cannonier to knock out Derek Brunson. He believes Cannonier's takedown defense has improved and that he will stuff Brunson's takedowns and put pressure on him. Levi notes that Brunson's opponents haven't been top-level and that Brunson has been knocked out multiple times. He is not crazy about the price and will probably pass on betting, but he thinks Cannonier wins.

pass on betting due to price
"I do think that cannonier stuffs these takedowns and knocks out derrick brunson"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Cannonier has excellent takedown defense and knockout power. Brunson's wins have come against opponents with cardio or grappling issues, and he gets rocked in every fight. Cannonier should stuff takedowns and land a knockout. Brunson's grappling advantage won't be enough to hold Cannonier down. Expect a second-round KO.

Cannonier by KO in round 2; hefty wager expected
"i really like jared kadenier in this spot you know even though brunson's averaging 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes and even though he's riding this five-fight winning streak"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

Paul thinks Brunson's recent wins are over stylistically favorable opponents and that Cannonier's takedown defense and power will be too much. He notes Cannonier stuffed takedowns from Whittaker and Gastelum, and that Brunson's chin is suspect. He expects Cannonier to knock Brunson out.

"i think this is when derek brunson's bad chin shows back up again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Cannonier

The MMA Guru picks Jared Cannonier by third-round KO, citing his takedown defense, cardio, and power. He believes Brunson will slow down after failing takedowns and get caught with a left hook.

third round ko left hook
"i'm gonna go with jared cannon in here i think he's gonna ko derek branson"
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (unanimous) (49–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Brunson vs. Holland · Mar 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 43 of 93 46% 226 of 323 6 of 12 50% 1 0 16:55
Kevin Holland 0 36 of 74 48% 190 of 236 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 35 40% 63 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:29
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 6 50% 25 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 7 of 20 35% 16 of 30 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:09
Kevin Holland 0 13 of 26 50% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 11 54% 54 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Kevin Holland 0 2 of 5 40% 39 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 12 66% 51 of 64 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:46
Kevin Holland 0 8 of 17 47% 47 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Derek Brunson 0 8 of 15 53% 42 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:14
Kevin Holland 0 10 of 20 50% 56 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 43 of 93 46% 28 of 74 7 of 10 8 of 9 14 of 43 10 of 10 19 of 40
Kevin Holland 36 of 74 48% 28 of 64 2 of 4 6 of 6 29 of 64 5 of 7 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 35 40% 12 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 28
Kevin Holland 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 2
Kevin Holland 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 10 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 6 of 11 54% 5 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8
Kevin Holland 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Derek Brunson 8 of 12 66% 5 of 9 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 2
Kevin Holland 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Derek Brunson 8 of 15 53% 2 of 8 2 of 3 4 of 4 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 10 of 20 50% 7 of 15 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
Quicker than expected, we have reached the main event of the evening. At stake is a possible place as a top contender, and two men on a combined eight-fight win streak look to end the other’s success. Brunson (21-7, 12-5 UFC) will face Holland (21-5, 8-2 UFC), and despite Holland’s ribbing, there is no bad blood as the two middleweights decide to touch gloves in front of referee Herb Dean. Holland reaches out with his hand, and he jumps back and gets kicked midair. Holland scores a fast front kick on the chin, and he ducks out of the way as Brunson is coming out throwing haymakers. Holland slips and falls to his back, and Brunson leaps on top to attack. “Trailblazer” ties Brunson up from his back with a body triangle, and Brunson does not mind as he lands a few punches from above. Holland slashes with elbows from below, but the far more emphatic punches are Brunson’s as they have an appreciable effect. Brunson works elbows as Holland looks to set up a submission, and the strikes break up the attempt without issue. Brunson throws heavy shots as he maintains heavy top pressure, and Holland pushes off only to get warned for nearly raking Brunson’s eye. Holland keeps his guard closed as Brunson pounds on him, and Holland talks to him and responds with short, hacking elbows. Holland boxes the ears and throws his legs up to try something, but Brunson ignores it and continues to hammer away on him. Holland is chattering away at him the entire time, and Brunson appears composed and lands heavy shots that silence Holland for the briefest of moments. Holland continues to banter and tell Brunson to stop covering his mouth, and Brunson continues to rain down powerful shots. Holland jumps back up, and Brunson pushes him away right at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 2
Between rounds, Holland has a conversation with former lightweight champ Khabib Nurmagomedov who is sitting in the stands. Holland laughs and smiles, and the fight clocks back in again. Holland whiffs with a huge right hand and a head kick, and Brunson walks forward and gets tagged with a left hand counter. Holland shouts to Nurmagomedov to tell him when Brunson’s takedown comes, and Brunson crashes forward into a clinch for a takedown attempt. Holland breaks free and lazily spins around, and he drills Brunson with a nasty right hand. Holland clips him again with a few punches, and Brunson falls across the cage. Brunson aims for a desperation takedown, lifting Holland’s leg up high in the air. Holland lands a few punches with his leg raised, and Brunson pops him with a right hand and lands an emphatic takedown. Holland surrenders mount quickly, only to roll for a leglock and allow Brunson to climb back into top position. In half guard, Brunson targets an arm-triangle choke, and looks to pass to mount or side control so he can finish the submission. Holland rolls but is pushed down and flattened on the canvas, where Brunson puts his full body weight from the other side and the choke is tight. Holland continues to talk even while firmly in the danger zone, and Brunson is in side control applying the choke. Holland rides out the submission that would put lesser fighters out, and miraculously powers out of the position and kicks off to stand back to his feet. Holland laughs and turns around, and when he throws a kick, Brunson picks him up and slams him down. Holland keeps talking to people out of the cage, asking for advice to stop takedowns. Brunson, in full guard, works him over with punches as Holland slaps and paws at him from beneath. Brunson postures up to land a few strikes, and he kicks off right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 3
Holland is not dismayed by the results of the last rounds, and he comes out smiling and reaches out his left hand. Brunson flirts with a leg kick, and Holland smacks him with an overhand right counter. Brunson retreats and circles around the cage, and Holland walks him down and lands a crisp right hand. Brunson shoots in for a takedown, where he lifts Holland up and slams him down on the canvas. Holland throws his legs up for a triangle choke, and he turns it into an armbar but Brunson is savvy and able to get out of harm’s way. Holland is able to get Brunson to stand up, but Brunson wades through an upkick to lower himself back into Holland’s guard. Holland stays busy on his back with elbows and slaps, and Brunson’s workrate has slowed dramatically. Brunson sits up a few times with slowed punches, and Holland ties him up and looks to Dean for a standup. Holland ties up a body triangle and elbows Brunson a few times, but he does allow Brunson to land some punches as well. Brunson, whose strikes are slowing, lands some but not enough to stave off Dean. The shots are enough to keep the position, but Holland is consistently throwing palm strikes and elbows at high volume. Brunson grinds his elbow on Holland’s chin, and his ground-and-pound is sporadic but effective at racking up lengthy control time in the round. Brunson sits up to drop down a few punches, and he squeezes heavily from above while Holland tries and fails to kick off the fence. Brunson continues his grind-embracing approach until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 4
Holland opens up the round with a leg kick, and he backs away while Brunson pump-fakes with takedown attempts. Brunson lets loose a lazy leg kick, and two punches find their home on his chin as a response. Holland clips Brunson with a few punches, and Brunson falls forward to take the fight down. Holland backs off, and recklessly charges into the fray only to get tied up. Holland pushes him off, and gets pulled into a clinch where Brunson uppercuts him several times. Brunson pushes him into the fence and gets a takedown, where he lands in side control. Holland scrambles back to his feet, but Brunson drags him right back down and is in Holland’s closed guard. Holland is frustrated as Brunson calmly and methodically gives ground-and-pound, and when Brunson elbows him in the face, Holland loudly cheers for him. Dean asks Brunson to work a few times, and every time he says it, Brunson lands a punch or two from on top. Holland looks to kick off the fence, only to get pulled back away from it and eat strikes. Brunson’s top control is making Dean take a close look at standing the fight back up, as he claps for Brunson to continue working. Holland kicks off the fence and gets to his knee. He hops over to the fence, and Brunson follows him and mashes him into the wire. Brunson presses his full body weight into Holland’s chest, and he knees Holland a few times and puts his hands out of the cage for a moment. Dean admonishes him, and he apologizes. Holland fails to escape the clinch, and elects to slap Brunson a few times before the fourth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brunson

Round 5
Holland offers a glove touch but Brunson ignores him to start off the final round. Holland picks his leg up to block a leg kick, and he stands still in the center of the cage while Brunson aims for angles. A front kick from Holland misses, and Brunson backs off and jabs him a few times. Brunson ducks down and clocks Holland with a left hand, and he may have hurt Holland but Holland wears it well and counters a leg kick with a left hand. Holland catches Brunson on the way in with a left hand, and when he leaps forward with a hook, Brunson ducks down and clinches up to take the fight down. The two land punches to the body in the clinch, and Holland knees him a few times for good measure. One of Holland’s strikes opened up a cut on Brunson’s eye, and Holland smells the blood and is excited by it. “Trailblazer” surges forward and takes Brunson down, and he is now the first fighter in UFC history to land a takedown on Brunson. Holland celebrates his work, but Brunson ties him up and locks him down so that little effective ground-and-pound can be levied. Holland postures up and lands a few punches, before lifting Brunson up to slam him down as if he were channeling his inner Quinton Jackson. Dean tells Holland that he will stand him up if he does not do anything, so he sits up and lands some shots. Brunson kicks him off, and he rushes forward for a takedown of his own to grind out the talkative kickboxer. Holland defends the first attempt but cannot stop the redoubled effort, as he slowly descends to the canvas where Brunson is lording over him punching him in the face. Dean already tells Brunson to do something, and Brunson does just that with elbows and punches. Holland pushes off the fence and giggles at Brunson, but Brunson is holding the position and winning the fight because of this strategy. Holland kicks off, and he walks away upset that he lost. With 10 seconds left, Holland appears to admit defeat as he turns his back and waves his hand in disgust. Brunson lands a punch as Holland is not paying attention, so Holland explodes with a flying knee and a hammerfist on the way down, and the final horn blares to end this 25-minute affair. The fight card comes to an inglorious end, but there is no ill will between the two middleweights. A big pay-per-view event comes over the horizon next week, although it has lost some luster as featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski tested positive for COVID-19 and the fight is off – this is likely why the Riddell-Gillespie fight was scratched on tonight’s card. We will be here for UFC 260, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland (49-46 Brunson)

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (49-45, 49-46, 49-46)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant, acknowledging the line is off and Brunson is the value side. He notes Holland has red flags in his takedown defense and cardio, but Brunson has been knocked out five times and may struggle to hold Holland down. Brady expects Holland to knock out Brunson in the second round, as Holland is dangerous off his back and has a steel chin. He says the KO prop at +160 is not a bad look.

Kevin Holland wins by KO in round 2; KO prop +160
"i'm going to take kevin hall to win by knockout i'm going to say he's going to be the sixth person to knock out derek brunson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2021 (fight day)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, citing his creativity and unquantifiable skills. He acknowledges Brunson's improved composure but believes Holland's experience and talent will prevail. He notes Holland's overconfidence as a concern but still expects a spectacular finish. He mentions Holland's past injury in the Darren Stewart fight as a possible excuse for that poor performance.

Holland by something spectacular
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland to catch him with something opportunistic"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Brunson has rejuvenated his career at Sanford MMA, becoming more disciplined and conservative. He should have a wrestling advantage and can control Holland against the cage or on the ground. Holland's cardio is untested in five-round fights, and he showed flaws against Darren Stewart. Brunson's chin narrative is overblown; he's been more careful. Brunson by decision is the pick, with the decision prop at +365 offering value.

Brunson by decision (+365), over 2.5 rounds (-130)
"I like brunson man i like this brunson since he's moved over to stanford mma"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to beat Derek Brunson. He believes Holland has shown a good jiu-jitsu game off his back, which previous Brunson opponents lacked, and can work early for a TKO. He notes Brunson's tendency to crumble under trash talk, as seen against Israel Adesanya, and expects Brunson to shoot desperately and get caught. However, he admits concern because Brunson has a knack for pulling off upsets.

"kevin holland is going to beat derrick branson because derrick branson can't fight"
TKO (punches) R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 88 of 145 60% 107 of 164 4 of 8 50% 0 0 3:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 35 of 72 48% 38 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:59
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 24 of 41 58% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 54 of 85 63% 69 of 100 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:01
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 11 of 31 35% 13 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Derek Brunson 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 88 of 145 60% 58 of 106 15 of 21 15 of 18 53 of 95 9 of 17 26 of 33
Edmen Shahbazyan 35 of 72 48% 17 of 50 18 of 22 0 of 0 26 of 63 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 29 of 50 58% 12 of 29 8 of 10 9 of 11 24 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 1
Edmen Shahbazyan 24 of 41 58% 11 of 24 13 of 17 0 of 0 16 of 33 8 of 8 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 54 of 85 63% 42 of 69 7 of 11 5 of 5 27 of 44 5 of 12 22 of 29
Edmen Shahbazyan 11 of 31 35% 6 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 0 3 of 3
Edmen Shahbazyan 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan

Round 1
We have rapidly reached the main event, which is a three-round middleweight tilt as two knockout artists in Brunson (20-7, 11-5 UFC) and Shahbazyan (11-0, 4-0 UFC) come to blows. Sharing 20 knockout wins across their 31 career triumphs, referee Herb Dean may have his work cut out for him in this abbreviated affair moved to the headliner spot on short notice. They have no interest in touching gloves, as Shahbazyan marches forward and takes a punch to the body. Brunson swings and misses with a low kick, and a body kick comes up mostly short. Shahbazyan leans down to land a punch to the body, and then goes for another as Brunson backs off. They come together, and Shahbazyan clips Brunson with a short check hook. Shahbazyan changes levels briefly, and Brunson grabs hold of his neck, so “The Golden Boy” breaks free and disengages. Shahbazyan whips a head kick up high that comes up shy of the mark, and a right hand that follows catches Brunson standing. Brunson tries to get a few more kicks off, and Shahbazyan circles to his left and sneaks in a left hand. Brunson charges at him with a few punches, only to change levels and go after a takedown. Shahbazyan rips a few elbows to the side of Brunson’s head, but Brunson tosses him down anyway. Shahbazyan tries to get back to his feet, and avoids damage while getting to his knees. When he stands up, Brunson mashes him on the fence, so Shahbazyan delivers a big right hand that forces a break. Shahbazyan loads up on a few more rights, and Brunson backs off to shoot for a takedown. Shahbazyan nails him a few more times, and Brunson wobbles but keeps his composure as he eats these power shots. Shahbazyan ends the night well with a groin kick, and Brunson shrugs it off so there is not much of a pause. Brunson rushes in with looping hooks and elbows, and Shahbazyan backs away to reconsider his position. Brunson comes forward to implement a takedown, and Shahbazyan catches him on the chin with a knee. Brunson is not concerned, and he keeps pushing heavy, but Shahbazyan shoves him away. Brunson leads with a knee and a left hand, so Shahbazyan gives it back with a knee to the body and a right of his own. Brunson slaps low with a kick, and goes to the body, so Shahbazyan slings a few punches and an elbow as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shahbazyan

Round 2
Perhaps surprising to some, we see a second round. Shahbazyan leads off with a head kick, and Brunson eats it like a steak and tries to throw back. Shahbazyan counters that offense with a right hook, and Brunson returns fire with a left hook. Shahbazyan overextends himself with a looping hook, allowing Brunson to take his leg and lift him up, setting Shahbazyan on his back. Shahbazyan springs right back up without effort, and in the clinch, we hear someone landed a cup shot. Neither pay it any mind, and they separate, which allows Brunson to kick to the body. When Shahbazyan advances, Brunson holds his fingers outstretched and jabs Shahbazyan in the eye, so Dean pauses the fight. On the break, Dean warns both fighters to keep track of their fingers, and Brunson sticks out a right hand to re-introduce it to Shahbazyan’s face. Shahbazyan digs him to the body with a kick that nearly makes Brunson double over, and as he tries to pour it on, Brunson counters him and bullies him against the fence. Brunson separates to string together a heavy series of punches, and he punctuates it with a knee. Shahbazyan loads up on a pair of enormous right hands, and they whiz by the bleach blonde hair of Brunson. Shahbazyan’s punches are more loose now, and his one-two is labored as Brunson ignores it. Brunson pressures him against the fence again, and lands a few shots while keeping his weight on the undefeated fighter. Brunson scoops the legs out and puts Shahbazyan down, where he drops down some powerful hammerfists as he takes side control. Shahbazyan rolls to his stomach, and Brunson keeps him trapped with punches, pounding on him while Shahbazyan twists and turns. Brunson is in half guard raining down punches, and Shahbazyan eats practically all of them as he is trapped on his back. Brunson postures up to hack at Shahbazyan with a nasty elbow, and Shahbazyan’s eyebrow is split wide open. The horn sounds, and when Shahbazyan sits on his stool between rounds, he nearly falls off as Dean calls in the doctor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brunson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brunson

Round 3
Shahbazyan may be hurt, but the cut is not in a bad enough spot to end the fight, so he requests to continue. Brunson comes out firing with a leg kick and looks much fresher, as he chases Shahbazyan around the cage.
Brunson leaps forward with a few reaching punches, and he rips Shahbazyan off his feet and starts clubbing him in the face with sledgehammers. Only a few more need to come down before Dean has seen enough
, and Brunson has now handed “The Golden Boy” the first loss of his career in devastating fashion. That spells the end of this shortened fight night, so see you next week for more action!

The Official Result
Derek Brunson def. Edmen Shahbazyan R3 0:26 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Big Brady picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Brunson has been knocked out five times and is past his prime at 36, while Shahbazyan is a young 22-year-old beast with a high ceiling. He believes Shahbazyan will come out aggressively and touch Brunson's chin early, ending the fight in the first round. He mentions the line is off at -345 and suggests looking at inside the distance props.

inside the distance (-265), first round knockout
"i just see uh shabazzian ending this in the first round touching brunson on the chin"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

Daniel picks Shahbazyan, praising his complete skill set including boxing, grappling, and takedowns. He notes that Brunson leads with his chin up and that Shahbazyan throws straight, disciplined shots. He expects a first-round knockout, citing Shahbazyan's 10 first-round finishes and his handling of Brad Tavares.

first round knockout
"i say he comes out here and gets the knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

The host picks Brunson despite being an underdog, citing concerns about Shahbazyan's cardio and lack of experience in later rounds. He notes that Shahbazyan looked poor in the third round against Darren Stewart and that Brunson's wrestling and grinding style could neutralize Shahbazyan's early power. He also mentions the smaller cage favoring Brunson's clinch game and that the line has moved too far in Shahbazyan's favor.

under 1.5 rounds not mentioned; host says 'dog or pass' and prefers Brunson at +270
"I'm going to go with brunson here i'm going to go with brunson via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Edmen Shahbazyan

The host picks Edmen Shahbazyan to win by brutal KO in the first round. He notes Shahbazyan's calmness, distance control, and takedown defense, while criticizing Derek Brunson's tendency to come forward with his chin exposed and get knocked out by top competition. He mentions Brunson's pattern of beating lower-level guys and losing to rising contenders, and predicts a straight right or uppercut finish.

first round KO, straight right or uppercut finish
"shabazian gets the job done by brutal ko i think he gets it by a straight right right on the bottom right on the button as brunson comes in"
WIN vs Ian Heinisch
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 81 of 185 43% 102 of 207 2 of 10 20% 0 0 2:13
Ian Heinisch 0 58 of 143 40% 65 of 150 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 16 of 42 38% 27 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:58
Ian Heinisch 0 19 of 43 44% 21 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 29 of 55 52% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Ian Heinisch 0 13 of 34 38% 13 of 34 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 36 of 88 40% 40 of 92 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:37
Ian Heinisch 0 26 of 66 39% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 81 of 185 43% 51 of 142 26 of 37 4 of 6 69 of 170 7 of 9 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 58 of 143 40% 37 of 114 16 of 23 5 of 6 49 of 130 8 of 12 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 16 of 42 38% 10 of 35 5 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 37 4 of 5 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 19 of 43 44% 8 of 31 7 of 8 4 of 4 14 of 36 5 of 7 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 29 of 55 52% 21 of 41 7 of 11 1 of 3 23 of 48 1 of 1 5 of 6
Ian Heinisch 13 of 34 38% 7 of 22 6 of 11 0 of 1 11 of 31 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Derek Brunson 36 of 88 40% 20 of 66 14 of 20 2 of 2 34 of 85 2 of 3 0 of 0
Ian Heinisch 26 of 66 39% 22 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · May 04, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 56 of 94 59% 65 of 103 4 of 9 44% 0 0 3:17
Elias Theodorou 0 65 of 170 38% 87 of 194 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 14 of 24 58% 16 of 26 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:23
Elias Theodorou 0 16 of 42 38% 25 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Derek Brunson 0 22 of 37 59% 26 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Elias Theodorou 0 25 of 68 36% 34 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Derek Brunson 0 20 of 33 60% 23 of 36 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:21
Elias Theodorou 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 56 of 94 59% 34 of 62 11 of 17 11 of 15 45 of 82 6 of 7 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 65 of 170 38% 16 of 88 27 of 34 22 of 48 53 of 150 12 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 14 of 24 58% 11 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2 6 of 15 3 of 4 5 of 5
Elias Theodorou 16 of 42 38% 1 of 17 11 of 12 4 of 13 9 of 33 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 22 of 37 59% 10 of 21 6 of 7 6 of 9 20 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 25 of 68 36% 5 of 33 9 of 13 11 of 22 24 of 63 1 of 5 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 20 of 33 60% 13 of 23 3 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elias Theodorou 24 of 60 40% 10 of 38 7 of 9 7 of 13 20 of 54 4 of 6 0 of 0
LOSS vs Israel Adesanya
TKO (knees and punches) R1 4:51 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Israel Adesanya 0 3 of 14 21% 9 of 23 0 of 7 0% 0 0 1:34
Derek Brunson 3 13 of 23 56% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Israel Adesanya 3 of 14 21% 2 of 11 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 13 of 23 56% 9 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 3 11 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 1
Darren Till - Fight History
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
LOSS vs Derek Brunson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:13 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · Sep 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derek Brunson 0 41 of 84 48% 101 of 145 3 of 6 50% 1 0 7:23
Darren Till 0 26 of 50 52% 28 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derek Brunson 0 26 of 51 50% 51 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:57
Darren Till 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Derek Brunson 0 6 of 13 46% 37 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:56
Darren Till 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Derek Brunson 0 9 of 20 45% 13 of 24 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derek Brunson 41 of 84 48% 37 of 76 2 of 2 2 of 6 9 of 36 3 of 3 29 of 45
Darren Till 26 of 50 52% 14 of 38 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 42 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derek Brunson 26 of 51 50% 26 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 3 3 of 16 1 of 1 22 of 34
Darren Till 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Derek Brunson 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 7
Darren Till 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Derek Brunson 9 of 20 45% 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3 4 of 14 2 of 2 3 of 4
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 6 of 16 4 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Till · Jul 26, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 69 of 157 43% 100 of 188 2 of 13 15% 0 0 2:29
Darren Till 0 41 of 99 41% 50 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 30 36% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 12 of 24 50% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Robert Whittaker 1 15 of 30 50% 42 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Darren Till 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
Darren Till 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Robert Whittaker 0 13 of 34 38% 14 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Darren Till 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robert Whittaker 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 2 of 7 28% 0 0 0:33
Darren Till 0 12 of 23 52% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 69 of 157 43% 32 of 116 7 of 10 30 of 31 57 of 139 7 of 11 5 of 7
Darren Till 41 of 99 41% 29 of 86 7 of 8 5 of 5 31 of 87 7 of 9 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 11 of 30 36% 4 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 6 10 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 24 50% 8 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3
2 Robert Whittaker 15 of 30 50% 7 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 7 10 of 23 0 of 0 5 of 7
Darren Till 3 of 12 25% 0 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Robert Whittaker 13 of 32 40% 8 of 26 0 of 1 5 of 5 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
Darren Till 6 of 21 28% 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Robert Whittaker 13 of 34 38% 7 of 26 1 of 2 5 of 6 12 of 31 1 of 3 0 of 0
Darren Till 8 of 19 42% 6 of 16 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 17 of 31 54% 6 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 7 14 of 26 3 of 5 0 of 0
Darren Till 12 of 23 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Whittaker because he believes Whittaker is the more talented fighter and will throw more volume. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after the Adesanya KO, but thinks if it holds up, Whittaker runs away with it. He is not impressed with Till's recent win over Gastelum and sees Till as basic. He predicts a decision win for Whittaker.

Whittaker by decision
"I just see him doing more I think he's that more talented fighter honestly"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel leans Whittaker, citing his power and strength, but acknowledges Till's late-round success and hunger. He notes Whittaker's defensive flaws and Till's limited but effective striking. He sees a possible second-round knockout for Whittaker but is not confident, calling it a dog-or-pass fight from a betting perspective.

dog or pass from betting perspective
"i slightly do lean whitaker... i feel like he has more power i feel like till is good and he's got good timing... but from a betting perspective it would be dog or pass for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker is the better overall striker with superior movement and combination punching. He will be able to cover range effectively and land blitzes, while Till may struggle with Whittaker's speed and variety. Whittaker's chin is not completely shot despite the Adesanya KO, and he should shake off rust and finish Till in the third or fourth round.

Whittaker by TKO in round 3 or 4
"i do like whitaker to win this fight i think he's actually even gonna knock out derentel probably in the third or fourth round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till, arguing that elite strikers beat Robert Whittaker, citing Whittaker's losses to Israel Adesanya and Stephen Thompson. He notes Whittaker's chin is a concern after wars with Romero and the Adesanya KO, while Till has had time to recover and adjust to middleweight. He predicts Till will catch Whittaker lunging in with a left hand and finish him by TKO in the second round.

TKO in the second round
"I think that Darren Till wins. I really do. I think Elite Strikers beat Robert Whitaker."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 40 of 81 49% 50 of 96 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:43
Kelvin Gastelum 0 36 of 67 53% 37 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 11 of 23 47% 15 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Kelvin Gastelum 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
2 Darren Till 0 14 of 25 56% 18 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Kelvin Gastelum 0 12 of 23 52% 13 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Darren Till 0 15 of 33 45% 17 of 35 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:27
Kelvin Gastelum 0 17 of 28 60% 17 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 40 of 81 49% 8 of 41 11 of 14 21 of 26 26 of 63 14 of 18 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 36 of 67 53% 19 of 48 2 of 2 15 of 17 34 of 61 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 11 of 23 47% 1 of 8 2 of 4 8 of 11 2 of 11 9 of 12 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 7 of 16 43% 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 6 6 of 13 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 14 of 25 56% 2 of 11 4 of 5 8 of 9 12 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 12 of 23 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 6 of 7 11 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 15 of 33 45% 5 of 22 5 of 5 5 of 6 12 of 29 3 of 4 0 of 0
Kelvin Gastelum 17 of 28 60% 12 of 23 1 of 1 4 of 4 17 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs Jorge Masvidal
KO (punches) R2 3:05 · UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Mar 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jorge Masvidal 1 21 of 43 48% 22 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:56
Darren Till 1 35 of 72 48% 41 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jorge Masvidal 1 13 of 27 48% 14 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Darren Till 0 19 of 39 48% 24 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
2 Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Darren Till 1 16 of 33 48% 17 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jorge Masvidal 21 of 43 48% 17 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 20 of 39 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 35 of 72 48% 18 of 51 10 of 12 7 of 9 31 of 65 3 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jorge Masvidal 13 of 27 48% 10 of 24 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 2
Darren Till 19 of 39 48% 10 of 27 6 of 8 3 of 4 17 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jorge Masvidal 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 33 48% 8 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 5 14 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
LOSS vs Tyron Woodley
Submission (brabo choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Sep 08, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyron Woodley 1 57 of 79 72% 74 of 97 0 of 4 0% 1 0 5:29
Darren Till 0 0 of 6 0% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyron Woodley 0 11 of 23 47% 16 of 28 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Tyron Woodley 1 46 of 56 82% 58 of 69 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:06
Darren Till 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyron Woodley 57 of 79 72% 47 of 67 7 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 19 5 of 6 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 6 0% 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyron Woodley 11 of 23 47% 3 of 13 5 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 17 5 of 6 0 of 0
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tyron Woodley 46 of 56 82% 44 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 54
Darren Till 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · May 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 30 of 126 23% 31 of 127 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 38 of 126 30% 40 of 129 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Darren Till 0 6 of 28 21% 6 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Darren Till 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 9 of 32 28% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Darren Till 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
5 Darren Till 0 3 of 23 13% 4 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Stephen Thompson 1 9 of 24 37% 11 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 30 of 126 23% 8 of 92 13 of 19 9 of 15 29 of 125 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 38 of 126 30% 18 of 87 5 of 12 15 of 27 34 of 121 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 5 of 18 27% 0 of 9 2 of 2 3 of 7 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 4 of 12 33% 0 of 6 1 of 2 3 of 4 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Till 6 of 28 21% 1 of 22 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 25 36% 2 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 9 7 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Darren Till 8 of 31 25% 3 of 24 3 of 5 2 of 2 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 32 28% 7 of 25 0 of 2 2 of 5 9 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Darren Till 8 of 26 30% 3 of 20 3 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 7 of 33 21% 4 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 6 6 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Darren Till 3 of 23 13% 1 of 17 1 of 4 1 of 2 3 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 9 of 24 37% 5 of 17 2 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
TKO (punches) R1 4:20 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Till · Oct 21, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Till 0 14 of 24 58% 14 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:29
Donald Cerrone 1 24 of 55 43% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Till 14 of 24 58% 2 of 8 5 of 8 7 of 8 13 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 24 of 55 43% 23 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 40 4 of 11 2 of 4
Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Darren Till

Big Brady picks Darren Till to win by knockout, citing Till's power and Brunson's questionable chin and cardio. He notes that Till has faced much tougher competition recently (Whittaker, Gastelum, Masvidal, Woodley) compared to Brunson's lower-level opponents. However, he is hesitant because Till is very low volume (max 49 sig strikes in a fight) and Brunson is a strong wrestler who could out-grapple Till. Brady thinks the line is off (Till -180) and would not bet the moneyline, preferring the knockout prop.

Till by knockout prop recommended; moneyline not recommended
"I am going to pick darren till by knockout darren brunson has been finished a handful of times i don't think he has the best chin and it only takes one shot from darren till"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody thinks Till should win but is hesitant at -180, noting Till's low volume and tendency to be reserved. He suggests waiting for a live line after the first round to get a better price. He acknowledges Brunson's wrestling and chain takedowns could cause problems, but believes Till's power and durability will allow him to get a late finish in a five-round fight.

Live bet after round 1 for better price
"if you're going with darren till i think you wait on it i think that's the move you're going to get a much better price betting him lives"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Darren Till

I believe Till is an elite striker and Brunson's takedowns will be harder to secure against Till's 82% takedown defense. Brunson's striking is not on the same level, and Till's power is real—he's dropped five of nine opponents. Even if Brunson gets early takedowns, Till's get-up game is good enough to work back up. The longer the fight goes, the more it favors Till as Brunson's desperation takedowns fail. I'm confident Till wins, likely by decision or late KO.

Till by KO +135, Till round 3 +950, Till round 4 +1550, Till round 5 +2350, Till by decision +400
"I really like Till in this spot... I feel like he's gonna be prepared for this fight... I think he starts to take over and then eventually finds that knockout blow."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Paul is taking Brunson as a plus money underdog, citing Till's low volume and Brunson's improved fight IQ and wrestling. He notes Brunson has been cashing as a dog recently and that Till's kryptonite is what Brunson does—wrestling and pressure. He believes Brunson can get takedowns and grind out a win, especially if the fight goes into later rounds where Till's hesitancy costs him.

Small shot on Brunson at +150
"i'm gonna take a shot on derrick brunson i mean even even you said it's like early on brunson's probably go you're gonna get a better price in live markets i'm not willing to wait i'll just take the guy who could be you know even money after round one …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 30, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Darren Till

The MMA Guru picks Darren Till to win by first-round TKO. He believes Till's striking and takedown defense will be too much for Brunson, who is hesitant on the feet and has been KO'd multiple times. He notes that if Till cannot beat Brunson, he will never be a champion. He expects a slow first round with Brunson attempting a takedown and Till countering with a left hook to finish.

first round tko
"i think darren till's got this one against derrick branson and i'll be honest with you if he doesn't beat derrick branson he'll never be anything"