Tom Aspinall

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall confidently, calling Ciryl Gane undeserving of the title shot. He notes Aspinall's well-rounded skills, 100% takedown accuracy and defense, and hand speed. However, he admits uncertainty about Aspinall's ability to handle adversity or a long fight, as he has only fought 16 minutes in nine UFC fights. Despite this, he believes Aspinall wins any way he wants.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Tom Aspinall, stating he should run through Ciryl Gane. He criticizes Gane's takedown defense and grappling, noting he was outgrappled by Ngannou, Volkov, and submitted by Jones. Brady believes Aspinall has the power to KO anyone and the grappling to submit Gane. He expects Aspinall to close the distance, get the fight to the ground, and finish Gane in the first round via submission.

Cody picks Tom Aspinall to retain the title, citing Aspinall's wrecking ball form and Gane's exploitable grappling. He notes that while Gane has good elbows and cardio, his takedown defense is weak, as seen against Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou. Cody believes Aspinall can knock him out or submit him early, but acknowledges the risk if the fight extends past the first round due to Aspinall's history of early finishes and potential cardio issues.

Connor also picks Aspinall, emphasizing that Gane struggles against opponents who press him and don't respect his range. He compares Aspinall's approach to Volkov's pressure in their fight, which caused Gane to make poor grappling decisions. Connor believes Aspinall's athleticism and wrestling will be too much for Gane, though he notes Aspinall's cardio could be a concern if the fight goes long.

Daniel Vreeland is extremely high on Tom Aspinall, calling him the 'baddest man on the planet' and praising his one-two combination, ground game, and finishing ability. He acknowledges Ciryl Gane's diversity and leg lock threat but believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much. He notes that Aspinall hasn't been tested past the first round but doesn't see that as a flaw. He picks Aspinall to win decisively.

Lucrative James picks Tom Aspinall to win by submission or ground-and-pound finish in the first round. He highlights Aspinall's massive power and speed advantage early, as well as his superior grappling, noting that Ciryl Gane has repeatedly shown grappling holes against strikers like Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov. He acknowledges Gane's technical striking and cardio advantage if the fight goes late, but believes Aspinall's early finishing ability and wrestling will be too much. He also mentions that Gane has been training in Abu Dhabi for a month, giving him an acclimatization edge, but still favors Aspinall.

The host believes Aspinall's physical advantages in speed and power will be too much for Gane. He expects Aspinall to touch Gane up on the feet and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish within two rounds.

Paul also picks Tom Aspinall, emphasizing his well-rounded game with high-level BJJ and knockout power. He notes Aspinall's 100% takedown accuracy in the UFC and believes he can submit Gane similar to Jon Jones. However, Paul warns that if Aspinall doesn't finish early, his cardio could be a concern, as seen in the Arlovski fight, and suggests live betting on Gane if the fight goes past round one.

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall by Kimura submission in the first round, around 3-4 minutes. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much for Gane, and that Gane overthinks in high-pressure situations. He compares their common opponents (Spivac, Volkov, Tuivasa) and sees Aspinall as levels above. He predicts Aspinall will sting Gane on the feet, then get a body lock takedown and transition to a Kimura from top position. He also mentions a PrizePicks bet on Aspinall under 1.5 rounds.

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, noting that Curtis Blaydes has abandoned his wrestling and has not attempted a takedown in three years. He believes Aspinall is the much better striker and may even mix in takedowns after watching Blaydes get taken down by Jailton Almeida. Angelo warns that heavyweights can always land a knockout, but confidently picks Aspinall.

Cody picks Tom Aspinall, noting his superior boxing, power, and athleticism. He points out that Curtis Blaydes often fails to commit to takedowns and gets knocked out when standing, as seen against Francis Ngannou and Sergei Pavlovich. Cody believes Aspinall's chin is better and that he can finish Blaydes early, likely by knockout in round one or two. He also mentions that Blaydes' wrestling may not be effective against Aspinall's BJJ.

Daniel dismisses the first fight as a fluke injury TKO and believes Tom Aspinall is the superior athlete with better footwork, striking, and fight IQ. He criticizes Blaydes' decision to stand with Pavlovich and thinks Aspinall will finish him early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior wrestling, athleticism, and striking power. He notes that Aspinall took down and submitted Volkov, and knocked out Pavlovich, while Blaydes has been exposed by grapplers like Jailton Almeida. He doubts Blaydes can grind out a 25-minute decision and believes Aspinall is far more dangerous on the feet.

Jeff also picks Aspinall, agreeing with Daniel's assessment. He notes Aspinall has the complete package and Blaydes has been out-grappled before. He wishes the line were better but accepts it.

Paul takes a shot on Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing the volatility of heavyweights. He acknowledges that Aspinall is the more likely winner but notes that Blaydes has cardio and wrestling that could cause problems if the fight goes into later rounds. Paul mentions that he faded Blaydes before but is willing to take a chance at plus 421, as heavyweights are unpredictable.

Angelo picks Aspinall, citing his well-roundedness and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Pavlovich has insane power but is untested in later rounds and against takedowns. He thinks Aspinall's wrestling and BJJ will be the difference, but he is not betting due to the even odds and volatility.

Big Brady slightly leans Tom Aspinall, citing his multiple paths to victory. He notes Aspinall has a significant advantage on the ground with his BJJ and ground-and-pound, while Pavlovich has shown nothing off his back. However, he acknowledges Pavlovich's terrifying power and that Aspinall must get the fight to the mat. Brady says he probably won't bet the moneyline but might look at a prop.

Cody leans Pavlovich, citing Aspinall's questionable cardio after the first round and his knee injury history. He thinks Pavlovich's power and pressure will be too much, and that Aspinall hasn't proven he can go into deep waters. He notes Pavlovich's training partners praise his cardio, and he believes Pavlovich will land something big and take over.

James picks Tom Aspinall, believing he should be a decent favorite despite the even line. He sees the striking as roughly 50/50, but gives Aspinall 80% of the grappling upside. He notes Pavlovich's takedown defense is untested and Aspinall has athletic takedowns. He acknowledges the short notice for Aspinall but thinks it matters less at heavyweight. He sees Aspinall having more paths to win: decision, submission, or knockout.

Aspinall's speed, agility, and athleticism will be key. He can land a straight right or secure a takedown and dominate from top position. Pavlovich's grappling vulnerability was exposed by Overeem. Aspinall's physicality will allow him to snatch the victory. Expects a finish, calling it round two. Short notice is less of a concern at heavyweight.

Paul is a believer in Pavlovich, having taken him at +135 earlier. He dismisses the Overeem loss as a debut five years ago, noting Pavlovich has improved immensely at Eagles MMA. He thinks Pavlovich's takedown defense and devastating power make him a problem, and that Aspinall's cardio and durability are unproven.

Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.

Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.

James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.

The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.

Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his next-level wrestling and recent striking improvement. He notes Blaydes has taken down elite heavyweights like Volkov, Overeem, and Hunt, while Aspinall's 100% takedown defense is based on only two defended attempts. He believes Blaydes will have success on the feet but ultimately get takedowns and win. He has a moneyline bet on Blaydes as an underdog.

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout, but he is hesitant. He notes Blaydes is a tough matchup with great wrestling, but Aspinall is the much better striker with power and speed. He questions Aspinall's takedown defense but thinks his BJJ black belt and get-up game could be key. He believes Aspinall can knock Blaydes out early.

Cody leans towards Tom Aspinall, expecting an early stoppage within the first 10 minutes. He highlights Aspinall's superior hands, pro boxing experience, and size advantage. Cody notes Blaydes' tendency to get complacent striking and his late notice for the fight. He also mentions Aspinall's jiu-jitsu can keep him safe on the ground. Cody plans to live bet Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish early.

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall to win, arguing that Aspinall's speed, variety, and well-rounded game will be too much for Curtis Blaydes. He dismisses the notion that Blaydes can simply extend the fight and win, noting that Blaydes lost the championship rounds against Volkov. Levi emphasizes Aspinall's impressive grappling, including a straight arm lock submission on Volkov, and believes Aspinall's takedown defense and offensive wrestling are underrated. He also mentions the home crowd advantage and Blaydes' potential jet lag.

Aspinall has cardio questions. If Blaydes survives the early onslaught and takes Aspinall down, Aspinall will gas. Blaydes has faced tougher competition and has more tools to win over a longer fight. I see Blaydes finishing Aspinall in the third round via TKO from top position.

Paul leans towards Curtis Blaydes at plus money, citing uncertainty about Tom Aspinall's cardio and performance if taken down multiple times. He notes Blaydes has never been an underdog in the UFC and has strong wrestling and top control. Paul suggests live betting Aspinall early and then Blaydes if Aspinall doesn't finish. He admits he doesn't love the pick and probably won't bet it.

Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.

Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.

Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.

Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.

Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.

Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by knockout, citing Aspinall's excellent striking volume (7.43 sig strikes/min, 66% accuracy) and power. He acknowledges question marks about Aspinall's takedown defense and cardio beyond the first round, but believes Spivac's short notice and questionable cardio will prevent him from wrestling effectively for three rounds. Brady notes Spivac has been knocked out before (by Walt Harris) and expects Aspinall to finish him either early or late as Spivac gasses. He cautions against parlays this week due to close fights.

Cody picks Aspinall but suggests betting Spivac live after the first round, expecting Aspinall to dominate early and the line to swell. He notes Aspinall's cardio concerns and Spivac's ability to fight deep, but thinks Spivac looked awful against Olenyk and is on short notice. He believes Aspinall's speed and power will be too much early, but if it goes past round one, Spivac could take over.

I'm fading Aspinall because his cardio is suspect—he gassed against Stuart Austin and slowed against Arlovski. Spivak has shown he can go deep into fights, like against Carlos Felipe. Aspinall's grappling defense is questionable; he got submitted by Austin and looked bad on his back. Spivak keeps a high pace and can wrestle. If Aspinall doesn't finish early, Spivak will take over. I bet Spivak on the moneyline and like Spivak by decision at +500.

Paul is staying away from this fight, citing the big juice on heavyweights and the uncertainty of both young fighters. He mentions Aspinall's cardio issues and Spivac's poor performance against Olenyk, but doesn't commit to a pick. He notes the prop 'Aspinall by KO' is -120 but still doesn't want to bet.

Big Brady picks Aspinall confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and that Baudot is moving up a weight class and is much smaller. He expects a first round knockout, but mentions a submission is possible if Aspinall uses a wrestling-heavy game plan. He notes Aspinall is a BJJ black belt.

Daniel is very confident that Tom Aspinall will win easily. He praises Aspinall's youth, black belt in jiu-jitsu, and training with Tyson Fury. He dismisses Alan Baudot as coming from a suspect regional scene (TKO) and notes that Baudot lost his last fight (though overturned) and was knocked out by a fighter Aspinall already beat. Daniel predicts a first-round knockout.

Aspinall's grappling is far superior; Baudot has shown poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. Aspinall will take the fight to the ground quickly and secure a first-round submission. Baudot has a puncher's chance on the feet but Aspinall will avoid that.

Big Brady picks Aspinall, citing his power, BJJ black belt, and training with high-level partners. He is concerned about Collier's three-year layoff and move to heavyweight. He wants to see weigh-ins but thinks Aspinall has the advantage everywhere. He predicts a second-round knockout, noting Collier may gas.

Daniel leans Aspinall but is not fully convinced. He notes Aspinall's power and well-roundedness but questions his takedown defense and experience. He thinks Collier could be competitive if he shows up in shape, but the three-year layoff is a concern. He sees potential for a stoppage for Aspinall or a close fight.

Collier has better cardio and durability, and Aspinall's gas tank is unproven beyond the first round. Collier can survive the initial onslaught and take over in later rounds with takedowns and control. However, Collier has a long layoff and Aspinall could finish early. Collier by decision is the pick.