Career Averages - André Lima
Career Averages - Felipe dos Santos
André Lima - Fight History
AJ picks André Lima, praising his technical Muay Thai, body work, and solid grappling. He acknowledges Borjas is a tough underdog with a big left hook but thinks Lima's craftiness and cardio edge will prevail. He expects a later finish or decision, possibly with Lima winning over 1.5 rounds.
AJ picks Lima as the more crafty striker with high-level Muay Thai, body attacks, and a well-rounded game. He thinks Borjas is a step slower and will be outworked, though he notes Borjas is tough and could land a big left hook. AJ predicts a decision or late stoppage for Lima.
Angelo picks André Lima despite being surprised by the huge favorite line. He acknowledges Kevin Borjas is better than people think but still believes Lima's striking and takedown defense will prevail. He calls Lima the pick.
Lucrative James picks André Lima, stating that Lima is a level above Kevin Borjas in MMA. He highlights Lima's leg kicks, defensive striking, and grappling upside, while Borjas is primarily a boxer with susceptibility to leg kicks. James predicts a decision win, as Lima doesn't take unnecessary risks and Borjas is tough.
Lima is better everywhere, with improved grappling and cardio. He will dictate the pace, chew up Borjas' lead leg, and eventually get a finish via TKO or submission. The under 2.5 rounds at plus money is a good prop.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 34 of 80 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Daniel Bárez | 0 | 108 of 159 | 67% | 161 of 220 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Daniel Bárez | 0 | 47 of 74 | 63% | 48 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 6 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Bárez | 0 | 56 of 77 | 72% | 76 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Bárez | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 37 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 33 of 79 | 41% | 21 of 66 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Bárez | 108 of 159 | 67% | 59 of 99 | 23 of 27 | 26 of 33 | 90 of 140 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 26 of 50 | 52% | 17 of 40 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Bárez | 47 of 74 | 63% | 21 of 45 | 12 of 13 | 14 of 16 | 47 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Bárez | 56 of 77 | 72% | 36 of 50 | 11 of 14 | 9 of 13 | 39 of 59 | 16 of 17 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Bárez | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-355), Barez (+280)
Round 1
Keeping things pushing in a lengthy lineup, a classic matchup of Spain vs. Brazil will play out between flyweights. Entram Gym representative Barez (17-6, 1-1 UFC) is aiming to go on a run, while Lima (10-0, 3-0 UFC) won his pro debut in 2022 and never looked back. The two will be joined in the cage by Octagon ranger Kerry Hatley, who is ready for wherever this fight takes them. Fists are bumped before they are traded, and Lima winds up and slams his shin on the lead leg. He does this three more times, until Barez responds with one of his own. Barez steps in with a thudding right hand, but the leg kicks from “Mascote” are damage-dealing and frequently coming. Lima has already reddened up his foe’s leg as he continues assaulting it, and he keeps his guard up to parry a few punches. Lima flashes out a jab and follow with a straight right, and he continues battering the front leg. Lima cracks the Spanish fighter with a huge right, and Barez bends over and briefly reevaluates his life decisions leading up to this point. Meanwhile. Lima marches him down with accurate, clubbing punches, and Barez is taking them well but still hurt. Barez grabs hold of his advancing opponent in pursuit of a takedown, and when that fails, he somehow circles around to take the back. Barez looks for a choke while riding the back, but Lima shimmies him off and gets back to pummeling his front leg. Barez fires back with impunity, and Lima loads up on several body shots to back Barez up. Lima nails the ribcage with a mean-spirited right hand, and he dips and rips the liver with his other fist. Lima spins with a back kick, and Barez slips out of the way and wipes at his bloodied nose. Lima keeps on the with the aggression, walking through jabs to load up. Barez backpedals, absorbs a few more body shots, and one particularly nasty left to the liver drops his hands for a second. Barez tries to back his man off with a step-in knee, and Lima ignores it and unleashes a hellacious kick to the lead leg that is welted up and swollen after four minutes of punishment. As they keep trading, Lima pushes off and his thumb jams into Barez’ eye. Hatley calls time, and Barez takes 30 seconds to recover. On the restart, Lima gest right back to attacking the front calf, with strikes landing with thumps and not slaps. Barez shoots for a takedown, and Lima stonewalls him and jams him up against the fence until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 2
The fighters clap hands and immediately pick up where they left off. Barez sticks out his jabs early to keep Lima from coming at him, but that does not slow “Mascote” one iota. Lima hammers the front leg with kicks, and he mixes in head and body shots as Barez’ nose busts open again. Lima turns his hips into his leg kicks, thrashing Barez with these blows until Barez has to turn or lift his leg up gingerly to take some of the sting out of it. Lima is far from a one-trick pony, as he pounds on Barez’ torso with bad intentions. Barez punches back a few times, but Lima is firmly in the driver’s seat putting it to the Spaniard. Barez circles away after taking a painful leg kick, limping as he tries to escape. Lima is a steamroller of offense, chewing up Barez’ midsection while putting his leg through a veritable wood chipper. Barez wobbles as he backs off, and Lima has to stop to shut down a feeble takedown effort before beating on Barez some more. It is a varied attack of head, body and legs, and when Lima gets in close, he starts shredding Barez with vicious elbows. Hatley wans Lima to not strike behind the head, and Lima changes things up once more and trips Barez up to deposit him to the canvas. Lima postures up in the guard, landing ground-and-pound while blood continues to flow out of Barez’ nose. Barez is able to slow Lima by hanging on in the guard, and he is sucking wind with deep breaths until Lima puts his hand over Barez’ mouth. Lima grinds his elbow down and works on Barez until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Lima
Round 3
Despite quite a shellacking, a swollen, bloodied and battered Barez is able to answer the bell and double high-five his opponent. Lima says hello with a hard leg kick, and he stays with the strike until Barez attempts to take him down. Lima not only stops it, but reverses him and tackles the Spanish fighter to his back. Barez closes up his guard, and Lima settles for occasional ground-and-pound that is not active enough for Hatley. Barez gets away with a borderline upkick as he throws his legs up for a triangle setup, and Lima stands up and then lowers himself back down in the guard. As Barez turns, Lima scrambles to claim his back, hooking his legs around the waist while fishing for a choke. Barez twists to his side, and
Lima actively pursues and eventually finds a rear-naked choke. The submission is instantly tight and partly a neck crank, a bit high on Lima’s right shoulder but gripped so tightly that Barez has no way out. Lima continues to crush on the windpipe until Barez says enough is enough and surrenders.
Hatley sees the tap and breaks them apart, and Lima walks off to celebrate with his team after earning his first career submission. “Mascote” is now a perfect 11-0 as a pro, and this performance will almost certainly put him as yet another talented flyweight to watch out for going forward.
The Official Result
Andre Lima
def.
Daniel Barez
R3 3:05 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks André Lima over Daniel Bárez. He acknowledges Lima is a solid striker but criticizes him for cheating (grabbing fence, inside gloves) and for struggling against Felipe dos Santos. He thinks Lima should win but cannot bet him at -280, citing better value elsewhere on the card.
Big Brady picks André Lima, noting his skill advantage but criticizing his frequent cheating (cage grabbing, missing weight) and lack of urgency. He believes Lima is the better striker and has improved takedown defense and ground game, now a BJJ black belt. However, he worries Lima's low output and tendency to go to split decisions against lesser opponents could be an issue. He expects Lima to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.
Cody picks Gabriella Fernandez, noting her experience and wins over decent competition. He acknowledges that Julia Stoliarenko has submission skills but believes Fernandez can avoid submissions and win on the feet or by decision. He is not confident in Stoliarenko's ability to get the fight to the ground.
Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.
The host believes Lima is the overall better fighter with defensive grappling that will keep the fight in Muay Thai or allow him grappling success. He expects Lima to touch up Barz and eventually find a finish.
Paul also picks Fernandez, noting that Stoliarenko's submission wins have come against lower-level competition. He believes Fernandez has good takedown defense and can keep the fight standing. He is not tempted by the dog price on Stoliarenko.
The MMA Guru leans towards André Lima, calling him the more well-seasoned fighter with hidden kickboxing experience (10-12 matches). He notes Lima is undefeated (10-0) and a big dude for flyweight, with no massive weakness in his ground game. However, he warns that the UFC might favor Daniel Bárez because he's Spanish, so he advises watching for close controversial decisions. He acknowledges Bárez's grappling is a treat to watch but thinks Lima is more effective on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 69 of 122 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 43 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 9:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 20 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 38 of 76 | 50% | 14 of 45 | 14 of 19 | 10 of 12 | 33 of 68 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 18 of 37 | 48% | 5 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 25 of 47 | 53% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 10 of 23 | 43% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-180), dos Santos (+150)
Round 1
Two promising young flyweights will try to take that next step to put their name in the large hat of contenders in the talent-rich division. Out of the vaunted Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, dos Santos (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) has his hair dyed in the customary blonde for the team and is ready for blood. Fellow countryman Lima (9-0, 2-0 UFC), who sports a neat hat walking to the cage, will be standing in his way putting his unbeaten record on the line. Referee Chris Tognoni will do his best to keep up with the two speedsters, and he clocks them in as they clap hands. Lima takes center stage and switches stances, and he hops back from a front kick aimed at his chest. Dos Santos aims kick to the side, and he lets fly three more kicks to varied targets before jumping in with a jab. Lima scores with a low kick but immediately has to deal with a counter body kick, and he dings his countryman with a left hand. Lima thumps a kick down low, and he scores an overhand right. As he backs off, he signals that he was poked in the eye. Tognoni sees it and calls time, telling Lima to take his time to recover and not hurry things. Tognoni tells dos Santos to be careful, and after 40 seconds, Lima is good to go. They resume where they left off, with Lima slowly advancing while working the front leg with a kick. Dos Santos darts in, misses, whiffs with a wheel kick and counters a right hand with his own right hook. Lima misses with a low kick, and he sees a front kick brush off his chest. Lima stalks his foe down and wings an elbow, and dos Santos ducks and ties him up while looking for a single. Lima leans back from a head kick, and he lines up a left hand while simultaneously dodging a spinning elbow. Lima’s flexibility is solid as he bends his back to dodge strikes, and he stomps out with a kick to the knee. Lima skirts away from the offense flying his way, seeing it coming while working his own weapons. A leg kick from Lima forces dos Santos to lift his limb up several times preemptively, and dos Santos spins with a back kick that bounces off the guard. As they scramble, dos Santos grabs hold of Lima from behind and trips him to the ground. Lima grabs the fence when standing up, and dos Santos is unable to mat return him due to the foul. Dos Santos leans and knees his opponent in the thigh, and he lifts Lima up a few times to chuck him to the floor. Lima slides out the back door after the second slam, where he twists around to claim top position and assume half guard. Dos Santos works to his feet, and Tognoni warns Lima to stop grabbing the cage. Dos Santos blasts Lima with a spinning elbow, and they both fall to the floor as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos
Round 2
The Brazilians are primed and ready to brawl, with dos Santos letting kicks go when not throwing hands, while Lima walks him down with punches in bunches. Dos Santos gets off a front kick and chains it into a flying knee, catching Lima cleanly and forcing Lima to tie him up. The two jockey for position against the fence, and dos Santos breaks free thanks to his knees. They both paw out right hands, and dos Santos goes over the top with a high kick. Dos Santos shoots for a takedown, and Lima overwhelms him and throws him down to the mat. Lima passes easily to full mount, and dos Santos is frantic to defend himself from anything that comes at him. Lima elects to remain tightly pressed down on his opponent and considers an arm-triangle choke. Dos Santos defends the first effort, and when Lima turns to get a better bite at the apple, dos Santos protects against that attempt as well. Lima drops down a few right hands on the ear, and he presses his hand on dos Santos’ face and draws a warning from Tognoni. Dos Santos scoots his way to the side of the cage, but Lima remains in mount, smothering him in the position. Dos Santos keeps bucking and pushes off the wall with his foot, and Lima keeps stuck to his opponent so nullifyingly that Tognoni asks for more activity. The horn sounds with Lima not doing any appreciable damage from this position after over three minutes of control.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 3
Lima offers a glove touch that is accepted, and dos Santos backpedals quickly to find an angle of attack. Lima proceeds to walk him down, blocking quick strikes and using his legs to check kicks. As they engage, Lima complains about something, and Tognoni confusedly pauses the fight. Lima tries to use Tognoni’s sleeve to wipe something on it, and Tognoni has the interpreter find out what the nature of the stoppage was. It turns out Lima needed to blow his nose, and Tognoni tells him he cannot do that and restarts the fight. It takes a few seconds for dos Santos to level change in pursuit of a takedown, and like before, Lima ends as the one on top. Dos Santos turns to give up his back when Lima moves to mount, and Lima gladly accepts this position and wraps his legs around the waist with a body lock. Dos Santos is warned for grabbing the glove, and once more it is proved that Dundasso is the greatest base for MMA, above wrestling or any other martial art. Lima shrugs off the foul and latches onto a rear-naked choke, and his forearm slides beneath the chin. While the submission would normally elicit the tap from 95% of the roster, dos Santos fights the grip and frees his neck from danger. Lima adjusts his grip and sneaks it under the chin once more, and dos Santos’ face turns a brilliant shade of red but he does not give up. “Lipe Detona” manages to survive a nearly completed RNC a second time, and he hand-fights to prevent another choke from getting set up. Dos Santos is otherwise shut down, forced to occasionally punch behind his own head, and he irritates Lima enough with these strikes to make Lima lay flat on his back. Lima raises his arms to celebrate that he is about to win, and dos Santos’ remaining swings go wide. The fight comes to a conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (29-28 Lima)
The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.
Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.
Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.
Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.
Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.
Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 0 | 32 of 76 | 42% | 32 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mitch Raposo | 0 | 51 of 100 | 51% | 52 of 101 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mitch Raposo | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Mitch Raposo | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mitch Raposo | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 22 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 32 of 76 | 42% | 20 of 58 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Raposo | 51 of 100 | 51% | 14 of 47 | 7 of 12 | 30 of 41 | 49 of 98 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 7 of 20 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Raposo | 17 of 29 | 58% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 8 of 24 | 33% | 3 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Raposo | 13 of 29 | 44% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 17 of 32 | 53% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mitch Raposo | 21 of 42 | 50% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-218), Raposo (+180)
Round 1
Just a little over a year ago, the promotion turned to an old favorite city it used to frequent back in the mid-2010s, putting on an interesting title fight with a non-title five-rounder in the co-headliner spot. The UFC swings back again in relative short order, deciding to post up outside of New York City while still drawing plenty of eyeballs. As a note, this will be the first event to feature the newly designed gloves, ones that were touted to reduce eye pokes. A dozen bouts with plenty of ranking’s significance from women’s 135 pounds all the way up to pound-for-pound consideration will play out, but the first of 12 has zero relevance in that metric because it comes at an unplanned catchweight. Raposo (9-1, 0-0 UFC) and his shiny new contract will contend with the heavy Lima (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who appears to still be reeling from his “Charlie Bit Me” incident against Igor da Silva in March. Referee Herb Dean will make sure no chomping happens this time around, and the fight begins with a glove touch. Lima moves to the center of the cage, walking Raposo down, and he sits down on a heavy calf kick that immediately forces a stance switch. Raposo finds a way in and dives forward with two punches, and Lima bats them away and chops at the calf hard while chants of “USA” rain down against him. Lima goes for another kick low down to the calf, and each time he has struck it, Raposo has changed stances. Raposo replies with a rapid-fire combination to keep Lima honest, but Lima does not pay it much mind as he attacks the front leg once more. Raposo lashes out with a pair of punches, and Lima’s composure never wavers and instead pounds the front leg twice after a stance switch from the Massachusetts native. Raposo strides forward to throw hands, and Lima intercepts him with a crisp knee up the middle. When Raposo settles down, Lima blasts his front leg, and Raposo shakes his leg out in response. Lima keeps battering either lead leg that is presented to him, and Raposo tries to check one by turning his shin in, and the sound of the shins clacking together echoes in the cage. Raposo circles his way into punch strings, but his general lack of offense prompts a clapping of Dean to fight more. Lima nails the lead when once more, prompting Raposo to let go with hands to the body. Lima turns his hips into a particularly harsh leg kick, and Raposo spins all the way around to get his bearings. Lima pushes off with his fingers outstretched, grazing Raposo’s eye, and Raposo waves Dean off and unloads a right hand that catches the Brazilian standing still. Lima lets loose with two high kicks that bounce off the guard, and he is warned for his fingers pointed towards his foe’s face. Lima keeps working on the front legs of his opponent, allowing Raposo to change his stance so he can smack the other. This continues until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to lead off the second round, and Raposo is much more active to get going. A few series of punches come from the American, with quick hands largely targeting the body. Lima no-sells the punches and continues stalking Raposo down, where he chambers and releases a head kick that slams into the guard. Lima attempts another step-in knee, and he parries the oncoming punches when Raposo tries to close the distance. Lima drills the front calf with a kick, and Raposo backpedals and considers a stance switch but would rather present his left leg. Raposo comes up short on a haymaker, and Lima allows him to fall off-balance so he can work the leg again. Raposo targets the body with punches, and Lima switches up to attack the inside of his adversary’s legs with ruthless kicks. Lima cuts Raposo off, and Raposo tries to drive him back with a trio of punches that all get blocked. Lima slams his shin into Raposo’s calf, and he pushes out his finger and swipes Raposo in the eye. Dean calls time and issues Lima a hard warning, and Lima gives an apology. They restart, and Raposo reaches him with a left hand. Lima comes back at him with low kicks, and Dean once more admonishes the Brazilian for his fingers pointed out. Lima fakes a kick, and Raposo jumps away with a major reaction. Lima pokes his man in the eye, and Raposo steps back and wipes his eye. A confused moment for both fighters results in Dean telling Lima to be careful, and they restart again. Raposo shoots for a takedown and hits it, and Lima blatantly grabs the cage to pull himself back up to his feet. Lima chases Raposo down and kicks him a few more times before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 3
The fighters tap hands together to get going, and Raposo gives chase early to throw hands. Raposo swipes out with overhand rights, and Lima calmly backs him off with a straight right hand in response. Lima gets off a low kick, and he fires a second one off to the ribs. Lima reaches out with a right hand and a front kick to the solar plexus, and he springs away from a double jab. The Brazilian fearlessly stalks forward, setting up a heavy body kick and seemingly unconcerned about anything Raposo gives back. The two men trade body shots, and Lima follows one with a kick down at the base of the calf. Lima plants a second kick down low, and Raposo’s punch salvo ricochets off the raised guard. Lima splits the guard with a left hand, and Raposo walks through it and gives one single blow back. Lima slaps the front leg with yet another kick, and a second is checked. Raposo slips in a left hand, but it is one-and-done before he backpedals. Lima measures a straight left hand, and Raposo stands him up with an uppercut and a left hand. Raposo ducks and connects with a left hand, and Lima frazzles him with two leg kicks that briefly put him down. Raposo bounces up and away from a sweeping body kick, and Lima manages to find him with a sharp jab. Raposo tries to attempt a takedown, only for Lima to toss him aside and push him to the wall. Lima gets off one knee before they split up, and he chases after Raposo until the fight wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Mitch Raposo via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Angelo acknowledges that Mitch Raposo is skilled and could win with a full camp, but the short notice, distractions from friends/family, and the step up in competition lead him to pick André Lima. He notes the odds are too far gone for him to bet. He respects Raposo's abilities but feels the circumstances favor Lima.
Big Brady thinks Mitch Raposo is live as a dog, with a path to get the fight to the mat via takedowns. He notes André Lima's takedown defense is a major concern. However, Raposo is on short notice, which worries him. He expects a close fight if it goes the distance.
Cody picks Lima, criticizing Raposo's level of competition and short-notice fight. He notes Raposo is a career bridesmaid who lost on The Ultimate Fighter and Contender Series. Cody believes Lima's size, strength, and kickboxing will be too much. He expects Lima to win by decision or late TKO, and mentions Raposo's takedowns may not be effective against Lima's scrambling.
Daniel praises Lima's striking, athleticism, and takedown defense. He dismisses Raposo's regional wins as against cans and notes Raposo's short notice. He expects Lima to get a finish.
The host believes Raposo's pace, pressure, and wrestling will overwhelm Lima, who has cardio issues. Raposo's calf kicking and improved striking give him confidence, and his gas tank should allow him to grind out a win via control time and damage. Lima's power is a threat early, but Raposo's durability and wrestling volume should carry him to a decision victory.
Paul picks Lima, noting his technical kickboxing and size advantage. He mentions Lima's win over Igor Severino (by DQ due to bite) and believes Lima's striking will be too much for Raposo. Paul notes Raposo is taking the fight on short notice and has struggled to get over the hump. He expects Lima to win by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks André Lima regardless of opponent, noting that Lima has good takedown defense and fundamentally correct grappling defense. He mentions that Lima's opponent (either Mitch Raposo or a short-notice replacement) is not a threat, and that Lima's kickboxing background will prevail. He also points out that the opponent looked mediocre on Road to UFC.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 40 of 85 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Igor Severino | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 38 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 24 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Igor Severino | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Igor Severino | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 36 of 78 | 46% | 17 of 55 | 9 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 71 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 |
| Igor Severino | 30 of 58 | 51% | 16 of 40 | 8 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 29 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 22 of 46 | 47% | 10 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 19 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Igor Severino | 16 of 37 | 43% | 9 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 14 of 32 | 43% | 7 of 21 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Igor Severino | 14 of 21 | 66% | 7 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-180), da Silva (+150)
Round 1
From the heaviest men’s division to the lightest we go, as a pair of undefeated Brazilian flyweights try to retain their 0 while impressing the bosses. Da Silva (8-0, 0-0 UFC) will rep an offshoot of Chute Boxe, while knockout artist Lima (7-0, 0-0 UFC) aims for another fist-flying effort. Keeping his head on a swivel will be referee Chris Tognoni, who checks them in as they tap gloves. Lima starts off with a low kick, and he dodges a jab that flies back at him. Da Silva aims his own leg kick and dodges a front kick, and Lima follows after him with leg kicks. Da Silva responds with two big right hands and a knee to the body, and he shoots in for a single and sets Lima down on his seat. Lima springs back up without issue, and da Silva clings to him from behind and wrangles him down to the mat. Da Silva wraps an arm around the head and threatens with a choke, until Lima turns to the right direction and works back to his feet. Lima presses da Silva against the cage wall and scores a knee, and Tognoni issues a loud warning for fence grabs. Lima sweeps the leg, and when da Silva pops up, he jumps guard for a guillotine choke that is tight early. Da Silva wriggles out of the submission, and Lima transitions with his legs to lock down an omoplata. Lima blatantly grabs the fence to reposition himself, and he is warned once more. He then draws an immediate other warning when he pounds da Silva in the back of the head. Da Silva muscles his way back to his feet, and the two separate. Da Silva decides to punch his way into a takedown attempt, where he succeeds in taking Lima off his feet and dumping him to the mat. Lima gets back up, and he blocks a jump knee from da Silva that makes da Silva fall over. The two start trading viciously, and da Silva blasts his man in the face with a vertical elbow. Lima hits him back with his own, but he is wobbled and takes a moment to recover. Da Silva gives chase around the cage, trying to cut him off as they throw hands and kicks and elbows with bad intentions. An elbow from Lima grows an immediate mouse on da Silva’s forehead, but he pays it no mind as he jumps for a kick and hits the floor. Lima lets him back up, throws a high kick and gets taken down for it. He climbs to his feet at the bell, ending a wild round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 2
The flyweights start off the round throwing hands, with Lima landing first with a clean one-two. Da Silva crowds him and lands several punches, and Lima connects on the swollen lump with a heavy right hand. Da Silva pushes off with his fingers outstretched as they brawl, and Tognoni pauses the fight to warn him. Lima begins first with several jabs, and da Silva rips the body with a right hand. Lima throws his own body shot, and he takes a right hand over the top. Lima parries a left, and da Silva crashes in and lands a pair of punches and a knee that bangs into his forehead. Lima takes the loud knee without issue, and he checks two kicks and makes da Silva stumble. Da Silva runs forward, where he completes a double-leg takedown. The guard of Lima is active as he starts looking for a submission or strikes from off his back. Lima pulls on the fence again as Tognoni shouts at him to knock it off, and he turns over as da Silva knees him in the thigh. Lima complains that da Silva is grabbing his glove or something, and he gets away with a fence grab in the process.
Tognoni calls time, and then has to call time again because they do not listen. Lima claims that da Silva bit him as he shows up bite marks on his elbow. Tognoni signals for the replay official to check it, and determines that it was a clear bite as he can see deep upper and lower marks that actually broke the skin. Da Silva said before the fight that he was hungry for his UFC debut, and apparently he meant that literally. Tognoni stops the fight,
and he disqualifies the formerly unbeaten da Silva for the clear and obvious foul. This might be the last time Igor da Silva is seen in the Octagon, and what a way to lose your undefeated record.
The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Igor da Silva R2 2:52 via Disqualification (Biting)
Angelo leans towards André Lima because of his cleaner striking technique and solid takedown defense. He notes that Lima needs to keep the fight technical and not get sucked into a brawl, while Severino should try to brawl. However, he is surprised Lima is a 2-to-1 favorite and will not bet on this fight due to the risk of a UFC debut against an undefeated finisher.
Big Brady leans toward the underdog Igor Severino (referred to as eigor D Silva). He notes that Severino is more aggressive, has a killer instinct, and can wrestle. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em and that Severino's aggression and takedown ability will be key. He predicts a decision win for Severino.
Cody picks Severino as an underdog, citing his youth, durability, and wrestling. He notes that Lima is more stationary and may struggle with Severino's pace and takedowns. Cody expects a close decision win for Severino.
Daniel Vreeland picks André Lima, citing his superior kickboxing and experience. He notes Lima has excellent striking, takedown defense, and the ability to get back up if taken down. He believes Severino is wilder and less polished, and Lima's grown-man strength will be a factor.
Severino is aggressive, mixes striking and grappling well, and pushes a high pace. Lima is a cleaner technical striker but has cardio issues and tends to slow down. Severino will stay in Lima's face, mix levels, and likely outwork him. Lima may hurt him early, but Severino's pressure should be too much over three rounds.
Paul agrees, noting Severino's wrestling and volume. He thinks Severino's ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. Paul sees value in the plus money.
The MMA Guru picks André Lima over Igor Severino, noting Severino's youth and lack of experience. He highlights Lima's kickboxing background and composure on the feet, expecting him to counter Severino's wild shots. He predicts a first-round TKO for Lima, as he believes Lima will stay patient and blast counters.
Felipe dos Santos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 71 of 112 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:33 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 51 of 104 | 49% | 92 of 147 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 42 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 45 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 18 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lone'er Kavanagh | 58 of 97 | 59% | 37 of 71 | 11 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 26 of 35 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 51 of 104 | 49% | 28 of 67 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 16 | 28 of 77 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 11 of 23 | 47% | 1 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 15 of 32 | 46% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 13 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 29 of 51 | 56% | 25 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 30 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 18 | |
| 3 | Lone'er Kavanagh | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 11 of 36 | 30% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.
Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.
Connor agrees with Zane, calling Kavanagh a natural genius for fighting. He notes Kavanagh is well-suited to deal with dos Santos, with more killer instinct than Malyk. Connor thinks Kavanagh's selective technique and flowy striking will be too much for dos Santos, who is brave but not as dynamic.
The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.
The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.
Zane is confident in Kavanagh, calling him a super prospect with fantastic eyes and lightning quick reactions. He notes Kavanagh is technical, flows from defense to offense, and uses spinning kicks well. Zane thinks dos Santos is a good test but not as refined as Charles Oliveira, and Kavanagh should find holes in his combinations.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 69 of 122 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 43 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 9:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 20 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lima | 38 of 76 | 50% | 14 of 45 | 14 of 19 | 10 of 12 | 33 of 68 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 18 of 37 | 48% | 5 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | André Lima | 25 of 47 | 53% | 7 of 26 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 21 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 10 of 23 | 43% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 | 9 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | André Lima | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | André Lima | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-180), dos Santos (+150)
Round 1
Two promising young flyweights will try to take that next step to put their name in the large hat of contenders in the talent-rich division. Out of the vaunted Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, dos Santos (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) has his hair dyed in the customary blonde for the team and is ready for blood. Fellow countryman Lima (9-0, 2-0 UFC), who sports a neat hat walking to the cage, will be standing in his way putting his unbeaten record on the line. Referee Chris Tognoni will do his best to keep up with the two speedsters, and he clocks them in as they clap hands. Lima takes center stage and switches stances, and he hops back from a front kick aimed at his chest. Dos Santos aims kick to the side, and he lets fly three more kicks to varied targets before jumping in with a jab. Lima scores with a low kick but immediately has to deal with a counter body kick, and he dings his countryman with a left hand. Lima thumps a kick down low, and he scores an overhand right. As he backs off, he signals that he was poked in the eye. Tognoni sees it and calls time, telling Lima to take his time to recover and not hurry things. Tognoni tells dos Santos to be careful, and after 40 seconds, Lima is good to go. They resume where they left off, with Lima slowly advancing while working the front leg with a kick. Dos Santos darts in, misses, whiffs with a wheel kick and counters a right hand with his own right hook. Lima misses with a low kick, and he sees a front kick brush off his chest. Lima stalks his foe down and wings an elbow, and dos Santos ducks and ties him up while looking for a single. Lima leans back from a head kick, and he lines up a left hand while simultaneously dodging a spinning elbow. Lima’s flexibility is solid as he bends his back to dodge strikes, and he stomps out with a kick to the knee. Lima skirts away from the offense flying his way, seeing it coming while working his own weapons. A leg kick from Lima forces dos Santos to lift his limb up several times preemptively, and dos Santos spins with a back kick that bounces off the guard. As they scramble, dos Santos grabs hold of Lima from behind and trips him to the ground. Lima grabs the fence when standing up, and dos Santos is unable to mat return him due to the foul. Dos Santos leans and knees his opponent in the thigh, and he lifts Lima up a few times to chuck him to the floor. Lima slides out the back door after the second slam, where he twists around to claim top position and assume half guard. Dos Santos works to his feet, and Tognoni warns Lima to stop grabbing the cage. Dos Santos blasts Lima with a spinning elbow, and they both fall to the floor as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos
Round 2
The Brazilians are primed and ready to brawl, with dos Santos letting kicks go when not throwing hands, while Lima walks him down with punches in bunches. Dos Santos gets off a front kick and chains it into a flying knee, catching Lima cleanly and forcing Lima to tie him up. The two jockey for position against the fence, and dos Santos breaks free thanks to his knees. They both paw out right hands, and dos Santos goes over the top with a high kick. Dos Santos shoots for a takedown, and Lima overwhelms him and throws him down to the mat. Lima passes easily to full mount, and dos Santos is frantic to defend himself from anything that comes at him. Lima elects to remain tightly pressed down on his opponent and considers an arm-triangle choke. Dos Santos defends the first effort, and when Lima turns to get a better bite at the apple, dos Santos protects against that attempt as well. Lima drops down a few right hands on the ear, and he presses his hand on dos Santos’ face and draws a warning from Tognoni. Dos Santos scoots his way to the side of the cage, but Lima remains in mount, smothering him in the position. Dos Santos keeps bucking and pushes off the wall with his foot, and Lima keeps stuck to his opponent so nullifyingly that Tognoni asks for more activity. The horn sounds with Lima not doing any appreciable damage from this position after over three minutes of control.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Round 3
Lima offers a glove touch that is accepted, and dos Santos backpedals quickly to find an angle of attack. Lima proceeds to walk him down, blocking quick strikes and using his legs to check kicks. As they engage, Lima complains about something, and Tognoni confusedly pauses the fight. Lima tries to use Tognoni’s sleeve to wipe something on it, and Tognoni has the interpreter find out what the nature of the stoppage was. It turns out Lima needed to blow his nose, and Tognoni tells him he cannot do that and restarts the fight. It takes a few seconds for dos Santos to level change in pursuit of a takedown, and like before, Lima ends as the one on top. Dos Santos turns to give up his back when Lima moves to mount, and Lima gladly accepts this position and wraps his legs around the waist with a body lock. Dos Santos is warned for grabbing the glove, and once more it is proved that Dundasso is the greatest base for MMA, above wrestling or any other martial art. Lima shrugs off the foul and latches onto a rear-naked choke, and his forearm slides beneath the chin. While the submission would normally elicit the tap from 95% of the roster, dos Santos fights the grip and frees his neck from danger. Lima adjusts his grip and sneaks it under the chin once more, and dos Santos’ face turns a brilliant shade of red but he does not give up. “Lipe Detona” manages to survive a nearly completed RNC a second time, and he hand-fights to prevent another choke from getting set up. Dos Santos is otherwise shut down, forced to occasionally punch behind his own head, and he irritates Lima enough with these strikes to make Lima lay flat on his back. Lima raises his arms to celebrate that he is about to win, and dos Santos’ remaining swings go wide. The fight comes to a conclusion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (29-28 Lima)
The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.
Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.
Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.
Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.
Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.
Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 52 of 97 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 5:02 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 37 of 87 | 42% | 62 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 14 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 21 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felipe dos Santos | 40 of 74 | 54% | 7 of 33 | 23 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 62 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 |
| Victor Altamirano | 37 of 87 | 42% | 24 of 66 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 31 of 73 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Felipe dos Santos | 9 of 23 | 39% | 2 of 11 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Victor Altamirano | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Felipe dos Santos | 13 of 22 | 59% | 1 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Victor Altamirano | 14 of 35 | 40% | 8 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 27 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | |
| 3 | Felipe dos Santos | 18 of 29 | 62% | 4 of 12 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Victor Altamirano | 17 of 31 | 54% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.
Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.
Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.
The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.
Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 1 | 112 of 182 | 61% | 116 of 186 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 99 of 304 | 32% | 101 of 310 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 1 | 36 of 55 | 65% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 32 of 96 | 33% | 32 of 96 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 0 | 37 of 61 | 60% | 37 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 41 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 0 | 32 of 106 | 30% | 34 of 111 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manel Kape | 112 of 182 | 61% | 77 of 137 | 24 of 30 | 11 of 15 | 92 of 149 | 6 of 9 | 14 of 24 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 99 of 304 | 32% | 53 of 215 | 28 of 60 | 18 of 29 | 94 of 292 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manel Kape | 36 of 55 | 65% | 18 of 35 | 13 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 32 of 96 | 33% | 13 of 65 | 13 of 20 | 6 of 11 | 31 of 92 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Manel Kape | 37 of 61 | 60% | 26 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 32 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 35 of 102 | 34% | 19 of 69 | 9 of 22 | 7 of 11 | 34 of 100 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Manel Kape | 39 of 66 | 59% | 33 of 56 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 |
| Felipe dos Santos | 32 of 106 | 30% | 21 of 81 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 29 of 100 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-410), dos Santos (+320)
Round 1
The UFC lost a terrific flyweight matchup of Kape (18-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France due to the latter’s concussion issue, and it tried to make the most of a bad situation by shuttling in a fighter who was going to make his mark on the Contender Series a few weeks ago. Instead of an audition, dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is thrust right into a pay-per-view main card, with the lights blindingly shining. A win for the Brazilian would be one for the ages as he would immediately jump into the rankings, but the hard-charging Kape will not go easy on him. Referee Greg Kleynjans takes charge of the cage for this “featured fight of the night,” and Kape is happy to still be fighting tonight so he offers a glove touch that is accepted. The two fighters clash together with immediate kicks, and Kape throws back with higher volume. The Brazilian wings a left hand over the top, and Kape gets stung but fires back with a vengeance. Kape connects with a low kick, and he gets knocked back with a jab. “Starboy” launches a rocket of a right hand that separates dos Santos from his balance, and Kape jumps on top of him and starts dropping strikes down until dos Santos throws his legs up for a desperation submission. Kape backs off to let him up, and he drives his fists into dos Santos’ dome a few more times to rock the newcomer once again. Dos Santos swings wild, and Kape is more composed and snipes him with a left hand. Kape paws out his jab and clips dos Santos on the way in with a short left, and when he kicks, dos Santos catches it. Kape tumbles to the mat, and as they scramble, Kape moves on top of him and busts him in the chops with several heavy punches. Kape gets pushed off and the two get back to striking, and dos Santos surprises the big favorite with a right hand and a knee up the middle. Kape is surprised but ready to keep attacking, and he walks into a front kick. Dos Santos is met with a leg kick, and he powers forward throwing hard but missing by a small margin. The Brazilian follows a jab with a head kick, and the two clinch up and start trading knees. Kape breaks with a big left hand, and dos Santos rolls with it and walks forward to swing with a haymaker. Kape times a spinning back elbow right on the dome, and the younger dos Santos eats it like a sandwich and keeps powering forward. Kape has a foot grabbed when kicking, and dos Santos tries to throw him down but Kape grabs the fence to stay upright. Kape muscles his man down to the mat, only to back off and keep trading. The two men get off power punches, and Kape scores a body kick and an elbow. Kape walks him down and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and dos Santos gives him one right back. A furious trading of fists ends the exciting round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 2
The flyweights do not race out of their corners this round, and instead dos Santos slowly wades forward reaching out with kicks. Kape slides out of the way of all of them, including a head kick that grazes his hair, and he returns fire with a low kick. When dos Santos commits to one in response, Kape drills him with a left hook. Dos Santos spams front kicks until charging forward with a right hook, and Kape takes the punches and counters, only to have his head snapped back with a right. Dos Santos kicks high as it bounces off the guard, and he spins with something but does not let it go. Instead, he settles down to fire off a right hand, and Kape trips him to the mat with a stern leg kick. Dos Santos climbs back up and connects with two low kicks, and he rushes forward and gets popped by a shovel uppercut of a right hand. Kape puts everything behind a right hand, and dos Santos slips it and counters, and Kape keeps his head movement active as well to make for an exciting near-miss exchange. Kape sits down on a right hand as dos Santos crashes the pocket, and the newcomer’s chin is impressive. Dos Santos gets off a jumping front kick, and both men smack one another in the face with right hooks. The two trade jabs, and Kape goes to the body and slips the long left that aims past his head. Kape counters a jab with three punches, and he staggers dos Santos with a left hook. The Brazilian wears it well once more, and he chains two punches together on the inside to drive dos Santos back. Kape digs his shin into dos Santos’ thigh, and he cracks dos Santos with a few punches. From up close, dos Santos spins with a kick, and it brushes into the cup but it is not called. Kape motions to his groin, and when it goes ignored, Kape surges into action and starts ripping into dos Santos with a flurry of ferocious fists. Dos Santos survives the assault and races forward, and Kape times an elbow right on the way in. Kape pierces the guard with a right hand, and he puts his hands behind his back. Dos Santos motions to him to hit him, and the two showboat and taunt at one another until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
Kape allows dos Santos to come at him so he can lean back and bat dos Santos in the jaw with a clubbing right hand. Dos Santos meanders forward, letting Kape kick him so he can try to front kick his way in. Kape does not allow him to close the distance, and instead tags the unbeaten fighter with a right hand. Dos Santos, not to be outdone, runs at him and reaches Kape with two punches. When Kape knocks him back, dos Santos replies, but Kape works the body as well. Dos Santos kicks the chest and swings hard, and he clips Kape and gets popped in return. The Brazilian lands a kick and gets tripped up, and when he gets back up, he connects with several punches that rock and cut Kape on the corner of his left eye. Despite the damage, Kape is excited when he gets blasted, and he chambers and fires a right hand that stuns dos Santos and knocks him down to a knee. Dos Santos races forward with a jump knee, and he pressures forward giving Kape everything he can handle with high volume and decent power. Kape moves enough to take the sting out of the shots, and puts himself in position for an effective counter. Kape times a huge right hand that snaps dos Santos’ chin to the side, but dos Santos is not shaken and he continues moving forward. Kape lets go with a flurry of hands, and dos Santos blinks it out and has entered “Terminator” mode. Despite taking shots, dos Santos will not back down, and even throws a spinning kick. Kape is composed and calm enough to time his counters, and he lets dos Santos charge at him and busts him in the chops. As dos Santos gets a bit too wild, Kape times a takedown and takes dos Santos off his feet. When on top, Kape rains down a final barrage of punches to conclude the fantastic scrap. Both men climb on top of the cage to motion to the crowd, and despite the all-out battle that Kape delivered, the crowd boos him heartily. What a fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.
Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.
Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.
Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.
Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.
Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.
Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.
The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.
Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.
Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.
Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.
Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.
Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.
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