Career Averages - Chris Padilla
Career Averages - Rong Zhu
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 147 of 271 | 54% | 164 of 291 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 112 of 180 | 62% | 117 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 75 | 58% | 46 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 49 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 147 of 271 | 54% | 71 of 164 | 30 of 40 | 46 of 67 | 124 of 242 | 22 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 112 of 180 | 62% | 81 of 147 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 155 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 40 of 66 | 60% | 20 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 15 | 31 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 27 of 41 | 65% | 14 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 34 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 63 of 119 | 52% | 23 of 62 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 43 | 61 of 113 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 75 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 44 of 86 | 51% | 28 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 9 | 32 of 73 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 41 of 64 | 64% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.
Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.
Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.
Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.
Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.
James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.
Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.
Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 88 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 47 of 78 | 60% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 64 of 109 | 58% | 33 of 60 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 34 | 43 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 42 of 84 | 50% | 27 of 68 | 12 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 17 of 31 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 14 of 28 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 47 of 78 | 60% | 25 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 28 of 56 | 50% | 18 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.
Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.
Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.
Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.
The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.
Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.
The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 38 of 122 | 31% | 59 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 39 of 98 | 39% | 88 of 147 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 12 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 38 of 122 | 31% | 19 of 92 | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 37 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 39 of 98 | 39% | 20 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 29 | 35 of 94 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 3 of 16 | 18% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 9 of 24 | 37% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 42 | 16% | 4 of 33 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 13 of 32 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 28 of 64 | 43% | 15 of 50 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)
Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.
Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.
Connor picks Padilla despite being unconvinced of his quality. He notes Padilla is formlessly aggressive and has survived in the UFC, but his wins are against poor competition. Connor thinks Padilla might be able to take Herbert down or mix it up, and Herbert is very destroyable. He calls it a coin flip.
The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.
The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.
Zane picks Herbert but is not sold on Padilla either. He notes Herbert is dangerous early with his height and power, but has a fatal weakness in defensive wrestling and is fragile in the pocket. Zane thinks Herbert will do serious damage early, but Padilla might get a takedown or mix it up. He calls it a coin flip.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 49 of 88 | 55% | 49 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 68 of 105 | 64% | 73 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 49 of 88 | 55% | 26 of 61 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 43 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 68 of 105 | 64% | 36 of 51 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 42 | 62 of 98 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 27 of 54 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 35 of 53 | 66% | 16 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 24 | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 22 of 34 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 33 of 52 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 18 | 27 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.
Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.
Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.
Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.
Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.
Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.
Rong Zhu - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 101 of 197 | 51% | 104 of 201 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 75 of 226 | 33% | 77 of 228 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 18 of 59 | 30% | 18 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 29 of 62 | 46% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 52 of 89 | 58% | 52 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 29 of 99 | 29% | 30 of 100 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 101 of 197 | 51% | 65 of 154 | 21 of 28 | 15 of 15 | 98 of 189 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 75 of 226 | 33% | 43 of 169 | 30 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 71 of 215 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 20 of 46 | 43% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 18 of 59 | 30% | 10 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 29 of 62 | 46% | 15 of 47 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 28 of 68 | 41% | 13 of 48 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 62 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 52 of 89 | 58% | 41 of 75 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 52 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 29 of 99 | 29% | 20 of 75 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 94 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Rong Zhu due to his volume and striking, but is surprised by the -300 odds, calling them berserk. He notes that Austin Hubbard is gritty and decent everywhere, and just had a close loss to a very good fighter. He thinks Hubbard could make it tricky if he marches forward and fakes takedowns.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision, citing his youth, rapid improvement, and striking power. He notes that Zhu has been working on takedown defense and anti-grappling, which will be key against Hubbard's wrestling. He believes Zhu will win a damage-based decision over 15 minutes, as Hubbard has never been knocked out.
Connor also picks Rong Zhu, agreeing that Hubbard is a 'quadruple A' fighter who gets bullied when he doesn't have a physical edge. He notes that Hubbard's striking is not powerful and he lacks dynamism, while Rong Zhu has shown good striking and durability. Connor expects Rong Zhu to win, possibly by knockout.
The host is historically higher on Hubbard than most, but thinks this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him. He doesn't think Hubbard will be able to get to his wrestling game, allowing Rong Zhu to dictate the striking and eventually land a big knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu to win by 29-28 decision, but notes that he thinks Zhu is a bit of a big favorite and that there is value on Austin Hubbard. He believes Zhu is more talented and works well on the back foot, but acknowledges Hubbard could win the third round. He mentions that Zhu is young (25) and has had mixed results, including a loss to an underrated lightweight prospect.
Zane picks Rong Zhu confidently, citing his improved striking under City Kickboxing and his durability. He notes that Austin Hubbard is a slow-footed, non-dynamic fighter who struggles when he doesn't have a physical advantage. Zane believes Rong Zhu will hit Hubbard hard and likely win a lopsided decision or even a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 1 | 125 of 241 | 51% | 126 of 243 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Kody Steele | 0 | 59 of 209 | 28% | 59 of 209 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 34 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Kody Steele | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 1 | 32 of 64 | 50% | 32 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Kody Steele | 0 | 9 of 36 | 25% | 9 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 60 of 102 | 58% | 60 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kody Steele | 0 | 23 of 87 | 26% | 23 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 125 of 241 | 51% | 108 of 220 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 125 of 241 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kody Steele | 59 of 209 | 28% | 47 of 194 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 58 of 205 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 33 of 75 | 44% | 27 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kody Steele | 27 of 86 | 31% | 21 of 79 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 32 of 64 | 50% | 28 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kody Steele | 9 of 36 | 25% | 8 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 60 of 102 | 58% | 53 of 92 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 60 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kody Steele | 23 of 87 | 26% | 18 of 82 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is a fan of Kody Steele, noting his BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Steele has a massive grappling advantage over Rong Zhu, who has been submitted four times. However, he worries that Steele might fall in love with his hands and stand and bang, which could give Rong a chance. Brady predicts a second-round submission if Steele mixes in takedowns.
Daniel Levi discusses Kody Steele's UFC debut, noting his impressive Contender Series performance and Dana White's praise. He mentions Steele's opponent Rong Zhu, who has been in the UFC before. He does not pick a winner, only advising viewers to pay attention to Steele.
Rong Zhu's experience and striking advantage are expected to overcome Steele's undefeated record. Steele will struggle to get the fight to the ground due to Rong Zhu's improved defensive grappling. The pick is for Rong Zhu to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 49 of 88 | 55% | 49 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 68 of 105 | 64% | 73 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 49 of 88 | 55% | 26 of 61 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 43 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 68 of 105 | 64% | 36 of 51 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 42 | 62 of 98 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 27 of 54 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 35 of 53 | 66% | 16 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 24 | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 22 of 34 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 33 of 52 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 18 | 27 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.
Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.
Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.
Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 48 of 129 | 37% | 49 of 130 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 126 of 194 | 64% | 133 of 204 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 42 of 66 | 63% | 48 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:11 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 31 of 83 | 37% | 31 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 60 of 97 | 61% | 61 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 0 | 8 of 29 | 27% | 9 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 24 of 31 | 77% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 48 of 129 | 37% | 34 of 114 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 46 of 126 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 126 of 194 | 64% | 86 of 151 | 25 of 28 | 15 of 15 | 117 of 178 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 42 of 66 | 63% | 24 of 46 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 7 | 36 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | |
| 2 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 31 of 83 | 37% | 20 of 71 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 60 of 97 | 61% | 43 of 80 | 11 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 59 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ignacio Bahamondes | 8 of 29 | 27% | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 24 of 31 | 77% | 19 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision. He praises Bahamondes' takedown defense shown against Roosevelt Roberts, where he stuffed 12 takedowns. He notes Bahamondes throws high volume (over 7.5 significant strikes per minute) and has a significant reach advantage. He criticizes Rong Zhu's striking, pointing out that he was outlanded 94-40 by Kazula Vargas at distance. Brady believes Bahamondes will keep the fight on the feet and outwork Zhu.
Cody picks Bahamondes by decision, citing his size, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Bahamondes' improvement and ability to stuff takedowns, while Zhu is still raw. Cody likes the decision prop at +150 and plans to bet it later in the week.
Daniel Levi leans Ignacio Bahamondes but is cautious. He notes Bahamondes has a tendency to fight to the level of his competition and sometimes underperforms. Levi praises Bahamondes' striking and chin, but worries about Rong Zhu's talent and youth. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if Bahamondes performs to his potential, he wins.
The host is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume striking, takedown defense, and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Bahamondes stuffed takedowns from Roosevelt Roberts and expects similar success against Rong Zhu. He thinks Rong Zhu's only chance is a knockout, but Bahamondes should control the fight and win by decision.
Paul agrees with Bahamondes by decision, noting his pressure, volume, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Zhu's power but believes Bahamondes' size and output will win rounds. Paul also likes the decision prop at +150.
The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Bahamondes has more potential and a higher ceiling than Rong Zhu, citing Bahamondes' impressive performance against Roosevelt Roberts and his toughness in the John McDermott fight. He criticizes Zhu's loss to Rodrigo Vargas and thinks Bahamondes will pressure Zhu, lose the first round, but come back in the second and third with better pacing to take Zhu into deep waters and win the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 1 | 86 of 134 | 64% | 134 of 198 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 9:27 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 0 | 41 of 105 | 39% | 67 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 1 | 35 of 51 | 68% | 38 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 0 | 22 of 56 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 30 of 46 | 65% | 57 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 27 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 86 of 134 | 64% | 71 of 118 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 74 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 59 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 41 of 105 | 39% | 17 of 69 | 7 of 16 | 17 of 20 | 36 of 98 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 35 of 51 | 68% | 24 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 19 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 22 of 56 | 39% | 5 of 32 | 3 of 8 | 14 of 16 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 30 of 46 | 65% | 28 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 10 of 22 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 21 of 37 | 56% | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 22 |
| Brandon Jenkins | 9 of 27 | 33% | 5 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dakota Bush (Brandon Jenkins) because he thinks Zhu Rong is the better striker but needs to dictate the pace. He believes Dakota's willingness to come forward, mix in wrestling, and make it a dirty fight will put Zhu on the back foot, causing him to react rather than inflict. He notes Zhu's record is a bit hollow.
Big Brady picks underdog Rong Zhu, believing he is better than his poor UFC debut showed. He thinks Zhu has cardio and striking advantages, and can stuff Jenkins' takedowns. He notes Jenkins has poor takedown defense and may slow down. He predicts a decision win for Zhu but is not overly confident.
Cody does not make a firm pick, noting that Rong Zhu looked shell-shocked in his debut but has potential, while Brandon Jenkins is a short-notice replacement with mediocre technique. He suggests the under might be the best play if the price is right, as both fighters are aggressive finishers.
Daniel Levi picks Rong Zhu to win but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Zhu underperformed in his last fight due to the flight from China, but this time he trained at ATT in Florida, so the flight won't be an issue. He thinks Zhu should be around -175 to -200, not -350. He acknowledges Jenkins is an opportunistic finisher and hittable, but if he were to bet a side, he would bet Jenkins. As a pure pick, he goes with Zhu.
Preet leans Rong Zhu but thinks the line is too wide. He believes Zhu is a crisper striker and may have a grappling advantage, but Jenkins is durable and has better timing. He expects chaos and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -125.
Paul does not make a pick, noting that the fight was just booked and he hasn't studied it. He mentions he would be interested in the under if the total is set reasonably, as both fighters have finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Brandon Jenkins, noting Zhu's youth (21) and experience (18-5). He criticizes Jenkins' lack of notable wins and believes Zhu will improve from his debut. He predicts a TKO win for Zhu.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazula Vargas | 0 | 96 of 176 | 54% | 111 of 192 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 42 of 105 | 40% | 49 of 114 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 | |
| 3 | Kazula Vargas | 0 | 41 of 81 | 50% | 41 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 29 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kazula Vargas | 96 of 176 | 54% | 50 of 121 | 29 of 34 | 17 of 21 | 94 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 42 of 105 | 40% | 40 of 101 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kazula Vargas | 47 of 82 | 57% | 17 of 47 | 18 of 21 | 12 of 14 | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 13 of 32 | 40% | 11 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kazula Vargas | 8 of 13 | 61% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Rong Zhu | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Kazula Vargas | 41 of 81 | 50% | 30 of 66 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 41 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by second-round knockout. He believes Rong Zhu is a much more technical striker with harder hits, and that Vargas is wild and low-output. He also notes Rong Zhu has good ground and pound if he takes Vargas down. He expects a finish because both fighters have high finish rates.
Cody leans toward Zhu, noting his youth and striking. He acknowledges Vargas's wrestling but thinks Zhu's aggression and cardio will be factors. He is not confident due to the lack of tape on Zhu and the -255 price. He passes on betting.
Daniel picks Rong Zhu, believing he is the best Chinese prospect on the card and that Kazula Vargas is not UFC caliber. He notes Zhu's length and aggression, and expects him to land better shots. He is not sure about the -250 line but still picks Zhu to win.
I think Rong Zhu has the most potential among the Chinese debutants. He's well-rounded with solid grappling and striking, and he's only 21 with 20 pro fights. Vargas is durable but limited; he's been finished only by Jose Caceres. I expect the fight to stay standing and Zhu to outpoint him, possibly finishing late. The prop I like is Zhu by KO at +135, but I'm not investing serious money due to the unknowns.
Paul picks Vargas as a dog, citing Zhu's takedown defense issues and Vargas's wrestling. He notes Zhu's youth and potential but thinks Vargas can exploit the grappling gap. He likes the plus money and thinks the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He also mentions that Zhu is on the card because of the Chinese market.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu by TKO in the second round. He is impressed by Zhu's highlight reel and activity, noting he has a 10-fight win streak and disguises his wins among lesser competition. He thinks Vargas is older and not as good, and that Zhu will finish him via ground and pound after Vargas survives a bit.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.
Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.
Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.
Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.
Comments (1)
Nice elbow to swollen eye stoppage for Chris.
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