UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 9"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 26
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Padilla
4.78 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.87 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rong Zhu
6.02 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
5.44 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
62.0% TD Acc.
84.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Draw vs Marquel Mederos
Draw R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 147 of 271 54% 164 of 291 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:09
Marquel Mederos 0 112 of 180 62% 117 of 186 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 40 of 66 60% 44 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:58
Marquel Mederos 0 27 of 41 65% 28 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
2 Chris Padilla 0 63 of 119 52% 71 of 129 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Marquel Mederos 0 44 of 75 58% 46 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:01
3 Chris Padilla 0 44 of 86 51% 49 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Marquel Mederos 0 41 of 64 64% 43 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 147 of 271 54% 71 of 164 30 of 40 46 of 67 124 of 242 22 of 28 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 112 of 180 62% 81 of 147 12 of 13 19 of 20 91 of 155 21 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 40 of 66 60% 20 of 40 8 of 11 12 of 15 31 of 56 9 of 10 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 27 of 41 65% 14 of 27 6 of 6 7 of 8 20 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 63 of 119 52% 23 of 62 11 of 14 29 of 43 61 of 113 2 of 6 0 of 0
Marquel Mederos 44 of 75 58% 32 of 62 3 of 4 9 of 9 42 of 71 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Chris Padilla 44 of 86 51% 28 of 62 11 of 15 5 of 9 32 of 73 11 of 12 1 of 1
Marquel Mederos 41 of 64 64% 35 of 58 3 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 50 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.

"Padilla is going to fight like that. Padilla will set twice the pace that Austin Hubbard did, and he has to be the pick for that reason."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to take Chris Padilla to get it done. Chris Padilla to get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.

"I like Taku Padilla on a card of things I'm not so certain about... He's one of the guys I'm gonna have to put some trust into."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.

"I'm gonna take Padilla where he could just get lucky."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.

"I'll pick Padilla to edge out a close decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.

"I think the odds are nuts. I'm on Medeiros here hugely."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marquel Mederos

James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.

"I will pick Markel Maderos to win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.

Padilla wins by decision
"I think Padilla's aggressiveness, calf kicks, and nasty Muay Thai could catch up to Maderos here. ... the prediction will stay Padilla and Padilla by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.

"I like Taco Padilla, man. This guy's got it... I honestly think Padilla... has got this man's number and is going to hand him a defeat."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.

"I think Paddy is sneaky good in the lightweight division."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.

"I'll take a boat of confidence for Chris Padilla continuing to blossom."
WIN vs Ismael Bonfim
KO R2 4:30 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 64 of 109 58% 88 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:21
Ismael Bonfim 0 42 of 84 50% 47 of 89 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 17 of 31 54% 38 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Ismael Bonfim 0 14 of 28 50% 18 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Chris Padilla 0 47 of 78 60% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
Ismael Bonfim 0 28 of 56 50% 29 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 64 of 109 58% 33 of 60 10 of 15 21 of 34 43 of 83 6 of 6 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 42 of 84 50% 27 of 68 12 of 13 3 of 3 42 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 17 of 31 54% 8 of 13 4 of 6 5 of 12 15 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ismael Bonfim 14 of 28 50% 9 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 47 of 78 60% 25 of 47 6 of 9 16 of 22 28 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 20
Ismael Bonfim 28 of 56 50% 18 of 45 8 of 9 2 of 2 28 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.

"I'm going to be on the Ismael Bonfim side. He's just better everywhere, and as long as he did not quit on that stool, we should be good."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.

decision
"I'm going to go Bonfi here to win a decision. I don't think he's finishing Padilla."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.

"I guess I got Bonfim, but it's another fight I really don't care for."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.

"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm not I haven't got a long breakdown for you guys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.

"I think Bomb Fee has underachieved in his last few fights. And on the other side, I think Padilla has overachieved. And I think we'll see the course kind of correct itself here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ismael Bonfim

Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.

"I'm not going to be letting Ismael Bonfim ruin my week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Chris Padilla. I'm gonna take a crafty underdog of Chris Padilla here."
WIN vs Jai Herbert
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jai Herbert 0 38 of 122 31% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 39 of 98 39% 88 of 147 0 of 6 0% 0 0 3:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jai Herbert 0 3 of 16 18% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 9 of 24 37% 29 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
2 Jai Herbert 0 7 of 42 16% 12 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Chris Padilla 0 13 of 32 40% 32 of 51 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:34
3 Jai Herbert 0 28 of 64 43% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Padilla 0 17 of 42 40% 27 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jai Herbert 38 of 122 31% 19 of 92 10 of 19 9 of 11 37 of 120 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 39 of 98 39% 20 of 60 6 of 9 13 of 29 35 of 94 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jai Herbert 3 of 16 18% 0 of 9 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 9 of 24 37% 3 of 11 1 of 2 5 of 11 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jai Herbert 7 of 42 16% 4 of 33 0 of 5 3 of 4 7 of 41 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 13 of 32 40% 6 of 17 3 of 4 4 of 11 11 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jai Herbert 28 of 64 43% 15 of 50 9 of 9 4 of 5 27 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Padilla 17 of 42 40% 11 of 32 2 of 3 4 of 7 15 of 40 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)

Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla

Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)

The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.

"I keep picking Chris Pilla here... I'm picking him now while he's a slight Underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.

Padilla by decision
"give me taba to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by a very close decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Chris Padilla

Connor picks Padilla despite being unconvinced of his quality. He notes Padilla is formlessly aggressive and has survived in the UFC, but his wins are against poor competition. Connor thinks Padilla might be able to take Herbert down or mix it up, and Herbert is very destroyable. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm gonna take padilla here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jai Herbert

The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.

"I think Herbert is a cleaner striker and I think we've been seeing an improvement in his striking defense and durability as of late."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.

"I'm going to take a slight Underdog of Chris Padilla to be honest with you"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jai Herbert

Zane picks Herbert but is not sold on Padilla either. He notes Herbert is dangerous early with his height and power, but has a fatal weakness in defensive wrestling and is fragile in the pocket. Zane thinks Herbert will do serious damage early, but Padilla might get a takedown or mix it up. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm gonna take herbert here, but it is if ever a man was bound to just have somebody fall on him and fall over and then not be able to get back to his feet it's giant herbert."
WIN vs Rong Zhu
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 4:14 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 68 of 105 64% 73 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Padilla 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 33 of 52 63% 38 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 49 of 88 55% 26 of 61 12 of 13 11 of 14 43 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 68 of 105 64% 36 of 51 8 of 12 24 of 42 62 of 98 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 27 of 54 50% 15 of 38 4 of 5 8 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 35 of 53 66% 16 of 22 4 of 7 15 of 24 35 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 22 of 34 64% 11 of 23 8 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 27 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 33 of 52 63% 20 of 29 4 of 5 9 of 18 27 of 45 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Angelo says he will wait for prop bets such as Chris Padilla plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance (decision no action).
"I'm going out on a limb I'm picking the dog Chris Padilla"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

"I'll go rangu to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

"I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

"I think Rong zoo is gonna stuff this man's takedowns and bust him up... I'm going Rong zooo here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Rong Zhu by finish within 2 rounds
"I'm going to go uh wrong zuu here and I think he eventually finds the Finish within possibly two rounds or so."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

Chris Padilla by submission +600 (playable)
"Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

"I think he's going to go out there and have a good performance against Chris Pilla... I think he's going to get this one done over Chris Padilla"
WIN vs James Llontop
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:33 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
James Llontop 0 12 of 26 46% 14 of 29 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 19 of 40 47% 7 of 25 2 of 4 10 of 11 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
James Llontop 12 of 26 46% 6 of 18 1 of 3 5 of 5 9 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.

"long top rightful favorite"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.

"I got to go Lop here to to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
James Llontop

Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.

"I think that lawn toop will just be too much for him in the spot and I think he ends up overwhelming him and finishing him in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
James Llontop

Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.

"James laop is another one of your good picks this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
James Llontop

The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.

"I'm going to go with James Lono over Chris Pilla"
Rong Zhu - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rong Zhu 0 101 of 197 51% 104 of 201 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 75 of 226 33% 77 of 228 2 of 12 16% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rong Zhu 0 20 of 46 43% 21 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 18 of 59 30% 18 of 59 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:29
2 Rong Zhu 0 29 of 62 46% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 28 of 68 41% 29 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
3 Rong Zhu 0 52 of 89 58% 52 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 29 of 99 29% 30 of 100 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rong Zhu 101 of 197 51% 65 of 154 21 of 28 15 of 15 98 of 189 3 of 8 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 75 of 226 33% 43 of 169 30 of 54 2 of 3 71 of 215 4 of 10 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rong Zhu 20 of 46 43% 9 of 32 1 of 4 10 of 10 19 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 18 of 59 30% 10 of 46 7 of 11 1 of 2 18 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rong Zhu 29 of 62 46% 15 of 47 11 of 12 3 of 3 27 of 57 2 of 5 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 28 of 68 41% 13 of 48 14 of 19 1 of 1 25 of 62 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Rong Zhu 52 of 89 58% 41 of 75 9 of 12 2 of 2 52 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 29 of 99 29% 20 of 75 9 of 24 0 of 0 28 of 94 1 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Angelo slightly leans Rong Zhu due to his volume and striking, but is surprised by the -300 odds, calling them berserk. He notes that Austin Hubbard is gritty and decent everywhere, and just had a close loss to a very good fighter. He thinks Hubbard could make it tricky if he marches forward and fakes takedowns.

Odds are -300, which Angelo calls berserk; he thinks Austin Hubbard is not a 3-to-1 dog.
"I'm going to slightly lean wrong only because of his volume and how insane that can be. But if Austin marches forward, fakes some takedowns, things could absolutely get tricky here. I three to one favorite seems berserk in a …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision, citing his youth, rapid improvement, and striking power. He notes that Zhu has been working on takedown defense and anti-grappling, which will be key against Hubbard's wrestling. He believes Zhu will win a damage-based decision over 15 minutes, as Hubbard has never been knocked out.

Rong Zhu by decision
"Give me Ranju to win. I'll take him to win by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Connor also picks Rong Zhu, agreeing that Hubbard is a 'quadruple A' fighter who gets bullied when he doesn't have a physical edge. He notes that Hubbard's striking is not powerful and he lacks dynamism, while Rong Zhu has shown good striking and durability. Connor expects Rong Zhu to win, possibly by knockout.

"I think Rongzhu is a pretty solid pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The host is historically higher on Hubbard than most, but thinks this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him. He doesn't think Hubbard will be able to get to his wrestling game, allowing Rong Zhu to dictate the striking and eventually land a big knockout.

win by KO/TKO
"I think this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him. I don't think he'll be able to get to his wrestling game and that should allow Ronghu to dictate the striking which is eventually going to lead to him finding …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu to win by 29-28 decision, but notes that he thinks Zhu is a bit of a big favorite and that there is value on Austin Hubbard. He believes Zhu is more talented and works well on the back foot, but acknowledges Hubbard could win the third round. He mentions that Zhu is young (25) and has had mixed results, including a loss to an underrated lightweight prospect.

Rong Zhu by 29-28 decision; Hubbard wins third round
"I think Ronghu is more talented... I think he should be a very slight favorite over Austin Hubbed. So there is a lot of value on Austin Hubbed here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Zane picks Rong Zhu confidently, citing his improved striking under City Kickboxing and his durability. He notes that Austin Hubbard is a slow-footed, non-dynamic fighter who struggles when he doesn't have a physical advantage. Zane believes Rong Zhu will hit Hubbard hard and likely win a lopsided decision or even a knockout.

"So I got to pick Rongzhu."
WIN vs Kody Steele
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rong Zhu 1 125 of 241 51% 126 of 243 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:18
Kody Steele 0 59 of 209 28% 59 of 209 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rong Zhu 0 33 of 75 44% 34 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:08
Kody Steele 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:06
2 Rong Zhu 1 32 of 64 50% 32 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Kody Steele 0 9 of 36 25% 9 of 36 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Rong Zhu 0 60 of 102 58% 60 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kody Steele 0 23 of 87 26% 23 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rong Zhu 125 of 241 51% 108 of 220 4 of 8 13 of 13 125 of 241 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kody Steele 59 of 209 28% 47 of 194 10 of 11 2 of 4 58 of 205 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rong Zhu 33 of 75 44% 27 of 69 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kody Steele 27 of 86 31% 21 of 79 4 of 4 2 of 3 26 of 82 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Rong Zhu 32 of 64 50% 28 of 59 1 of 2 3 of 3 32 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kody Steele 9 of 36 25% 8 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 1 9 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rong Zhu 60 of 102 58% 53 of 92 1 of 4 6 of 6 60 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kody Steele 23 of 87 26% 18 of 82 5 of 5 0 of 0 23 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kody Steele

Big Brady is a fan of Kody Steele, noting his BJJ black belt and improved striking. He believes Steele has a massive grappling advantage over Rong Zhu, who has been submitted four times. However, he worries that Steele might fall in love with his hands and stand and bang, which could give Rong a chance. Brady predicts a second-round submission if Steele mixes in takedowns.

"I like Cody steel here um rangu could be live early on especially if they stand in bang a little bit but especially as this fight goes on whether steel grapples or not as this fight goes on I like …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses Kody Steele's UFC debut, noting his impressive Contender Series performance and Dana White's praise. He mentions Steele's opponent Rong Zhu, who has been in the UFC before. He does not pick a winner, only advising viewers to pay attention to Steele.

"Definitely pay attention to this kid cody Steel because he looked very promising in his Regional and Dana White's Contender series footage"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu's experience and striking advantage are expected to overcome Steele's undefeated record. Steele will struggle to get the fight to the ground due to Rong Zhu's improved defensive grappling. The pick is for Rong Zhu to win by decision.

decision
"I do believe the experience and striking advantage of rangu will allow him to overcome The Undefeated record of Cody steel"
LOSS vs Chris Padilla
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 4:14 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Padilla 0 49 of 88 55% 49 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 68 of 105 64% 73 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Padilla 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 35 of 53 66% 35 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Padilla 0 22 of 34 64% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Rong Zhu 0 33 of 52 63% 38 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Padilla 49 of 88 55% 26 of 61 12 of 13 11 of 14 43 of 81 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 68 of 105 64% 36 of 51 8 of 12 24 of 42 62 of 98 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Padilla 27 of 54 50% 15 of 38 4 of 5 8 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 35 of 53 66% 16 of 22 4 of 7 15 of 24 35 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Padilla 22 of 34 64% 11 of 23 8 of 8 3 of 3 16 of 27 6 of 7 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 33 of 52 63% 20 of 29 4 of 5 9 of 18 27 of 45 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Angelo says he will wait for prop bets such as Chris Padilla plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance (decision no action).
"I'm going out on a limb I'm picking the dog Chris Padilla"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

"I'll go rangu to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

"I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

"I think Rong zoo is gonna stuff this man's takedowns and bust him up... I'm going Rong zooo here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Rong Zhu by finish within 2 rounds
"I'm going to go uh wrong zuu here and I think he eventually finds the Finish within possibly two rounds or so."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

Chris Padilla by submission +600 (playable)
"Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

"I think he's going to go out there and have a good performance against Chris Pilla... I think he's going to get this one done over Chris Padilla"
Submission (brabo choke) R3 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 48 of 129 37% 49 of 130 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:20
Rong Zhu 0 126 of 194 64% 133 of 204 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Rong Zhu 0 42 of 66 63% 48 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:11
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 31 of 83 37% 31 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 60 of 97 61% 61 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 8 of 29 27% 9 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
Rong Zhu 0 24 of 31 77% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 48 of 129 37% 34 of 114 9 of 10 5 of 5 46 of 126 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 126 of 194 64% 86 of 151 25 of 28 15 of 15 117 of 178 3 of 3 6 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 9 of 17 52% 6 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 42 of 66 63% 24 of 46 11 of 13 7 of 7 36 of 53 0 of 0 6 of 13
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 31 of 83 37% 20 of 71 9 of 10 2 of 2 30 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 60 of 97 61% 43 of 80 11 of 11 6 of 6 59 of 96 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 24 of 31 77% 19 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 2 22 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision. He praises Bahamondes' takedown defense shown against Roosevelt Roberts, where he stuffed 12 takedowns. He notes Bahamondes throws high volume (over 7.5 significant strikes per minute) and has a significant reach advantage. He criticizes Rong Zhu's striking, pointing out that he was outlanded 94-40 by Kazula Vargas at distance. Brady believes Bahamondes will keep the fight on the feet and outwork Zhu.

Bahamondes by decision
"I like baja monas to win here i like baja monas to win probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody picks Bahamondes by decision, citing his size, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Bahamondes' improvement and ability to stuff takedowns, while Zhu is still raw. Cody likes the decision prop at +150 and plans to bet it later in the week.

Bahamondes by decision +150 (DraftKings)
"baja mondez by decision i haven't bet it yet it's something i wanted to talk through with you"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel Levi leans Ignacio Bahamondes but is cautious. He notes Bahamondes has a tendency to fight to the level of his competition and sometimes underperforms. Levi praises Bahamondes' striking and chin, but worries about Rong Zhu's talent and youth. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if Bahamondes performs to his potential, he wins.

"i lean ignacio but this is one of the fights that i'm very curious to see how it plays out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume striking, takedown defense, and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Bahamondes stuffed takedowns from Roosevelt Roberts and expects similar success against Rong Zhu. He thinks Rong Zhu's only chance is a knockout, but Bahamondes should control the fight and win by decision.

"i do like bahamut in the spot i do think he goes out there and has a classic ignacio uh performance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul agrees with Bahamondes by decision, noting his pressure, volume, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Zhu's power but believes Bahamondes' size and output will win rounds. Paul also likes the decision prop at +150.

Bahamondes by decision +150 (DraftKings)
"i got the same pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Bahamondes has more potential and a higher ceiling than Rong Zhu, citing Bahamondes' impressive performance against Roosevelt Roberts and his toughness in the John McDermott fight. He criticizes Zhu's loss to Rodrigo Vargas and thinks Bahamondes will pressure Zhu, lose the first round, but come back in the second and third with better pacing to take Zhu into deep waters and win the last two rounds.

29-28 decision
"i'm going to go with ignacio baramondez 29-28 based on the last two rounds"
TKO (punches) R3 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rong Zhu 1 86 of 134 64% 134 of 198 6 of 8 75% 0 0 9:27
Brandon Jenkins 0 41 of 105 39% 67 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rong Zhu 1 35 of 51 68% 38 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Brandon Jenkins 0 22 of 56 39% 23 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rong Zhu 0 30 of 46 65% 57 of 74 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:00
Brandon Jenkins 0 10 of 22 45% 27 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:04
3 Rong Zhu 0 21 of 37 56% 39 of 69 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:26
Brandon Jenkins 0 9 of 27 33% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rong Zhu 86 of 134 64% 71 of 118 8 of 9 7 of 7 43 of 74 1 of 1 42 of 59
Brandon Jenkins 41 of 105 39% 17 of 69 7 of 16 17 of 20 36 of 98 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rong Zhu 35 of 51 68% 24 of 40 4 of 4 7 of 7 18 of 31 1 of 1 16 of 19
Brandon Jenkins 22 of 56 39% 5 of 32 3 of 8 14 of 16 20 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Rong Zhu 30 of 46 65% 28 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 28 0 of 0 12 of 18
Brandon Jenkins 10 of 22 45% 7 of 18 3 of 4 0 of 0 7 of 17 2 of 4 1 of 1
3 Rong Zhu 21 of 37 56% 19 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 14 of 22
Brandon Jenkins 9 of 27 33% 5 of 19 1 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Jenkins

Angelo picks Dakota Bush (Brandon Jenkins) because he thinks Zhu Rong is the better striker but needs to dictate the pace. He believes Dakota's willingness to come forward, mix in wrestling, and make it a dirty fight will put Zhu on the back foot, causing him to react rather than inflict. He notes Zhu's record is a bit hollow.

"dakota bush is my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks underdog Rong Zhu, believing he is better than his poor UFC debut showed. He thinks Zhu has cardio and striking advantages, and can stuff Jenkins' takedowns. He notes Jenkins has poor takedown defense and may slow down. He predicts a decision win for Zhu but is not overly confident.

"i'm gonna say that wrong zoo is a lot better than we saw in that first fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not make a firm pick, noting that Rong Zhu looked shell-shocked in his debut but has potential, while Brandon Jenkins is a short-notice replacement with mediocre technique. He suggests the under might be the best play if the price is right, as both fighters are aggressive finishers.

Under 2.5 rounds (if price is right)
"i would be interested in taking wrong but we don't have a line in front of us"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel Levi picks Rong Zhu to win but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Zhu underperformed in his last fight due to the flight from China, but this time he trained at ATT in Florida, so the flight won't be an issue. He thinks Zhu should be around -175 to -200, not -350. He acknowledges Jenkins is an opportunistic finisher and hittable, but if he were to bet a side, he would bet Jenkins. As a pure pick, he goes with Zhu.

dog-or-pass situation; if betting, would take Brandon Jenkins
"if i were to bet a side here i would bet brandon jenkins i'm not gonna lay minus 350 on wrong shoe here but i'll pick as a pure pick wrong shoe this is a dogger pass situation guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Preet leans Rong Zhu but thinks the line is too wide. He believes Zhu is a crisper striker and may have a grappling advantage, but Jenkins is durable and has better timing. He expects chaos and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -125.

Under 2.5 rounds -125
"I'm still coming out on the other side pickings are wrong to win this fight I just can't trust him at this match 335"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a pick, noting that the fight was just booked and he hasn't studied it. He mentions he would be interested in the under if the total is set reasonably, as both fighters have finishing ability.

"i'll be paying close attention to what the total gets set on this because i probably want to bed and under"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Brandon Jenkins, noting Zhu's youth (21) and experience (18-5). He criticizes Jenkins' lack of notable wins and believes Zhu will improve from his debut. He predicts a TKO win for Zhu.

TKO
"i'm gonna go with wrongzhu here dakota bush is kind of like they're offering up a hey chinese guy that we want to win"
LOSS vs Kazula Vargas
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kazula Vargas 0 96 of 176 54% 111 of 192 0 of 1 0% 1 1 1:10
Rong Zhu 0 42 of 105 40% 49 of 114 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kazula Vargas 0 47 of 82 57% 47 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 13 of 32 40% 13 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kazula Vargas 0 8 of 13 61% 23 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:10
Rong Zhu 0 2 of 7 28% 7 of 12 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:32
3 Kazula Vargas 0 41 of 81 50% 41 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 27 of 66 40% 29 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kazula Vargas 96 of 176 54% 50 of 121 29 of 34 17 of 21 94 of 174 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 42 of 105 40% 40 of 101 2 of 4 0 of 0 40 of 100 0 of 0 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kazula Vargas 47 of 82 57% 17 of 47 18 of 21 12 of 14 47 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 13 of 32 40% 11 of 29 2 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kazula Vargas 8 of 13 61% 3 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Kazula Vargas 41 of 81 50% 30 of 66 9 of 11 2 of 4 41 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 27 of 66 40% 27 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0 26 of 63 0 of 0 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by second-round knockout. He believes Rong Zhu is a much more technical striker with harder hits, and that Vargas is wild and low-output. He also notes Rong Zhu has good ground and pound if he takes Vargas down. He expects a finish because both fighters have high finish rates.

Rong Zhu by KO in round 2
"i'm gonna take wrong zoo to win this fight i'm going to say he wins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Cody leans toward Zhu, noting his youth and striking. He acknowledges Vargas's wrestling but thinks Zhu's aggression and cardio will be factors. He is not confident due to the lack of tape on Zhu and the -255 price. He passes on betting.

"i think this kid's gonna outlast him i think this kid's gonna last him the strike is gonna be a little bit better he's aggressive he's got a good gasoline"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel picks Rong Zhu, believing he is the best Chinese prospect on the card and that Kazula Vargas is not UFC caliber. He notes Zhu's length and aggression, and expects him to land better shots. He is not sure about the -250 line but still picks Zhu to win.

"i'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Rong Zhu

I think Rong Zhu has the most potential among the Chinese debutants. He's well-rounded with solid grappling and striking, and he's only 21 with 20 pro fights. Vargas is durable but limited; he's been finished only by Jose Caceres. I expect the fight to stay standing and Zhu to outpoint him, possibly finishing late. The prop I like is Zhu by KO at +135, but I'm not investing serious money due to the unknowns.

Zhu by KO +135
"i think that we'll get wrong uh having the upper hand pretty much at all times in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kazula Vargas

Paul picks Vargas as a dog, citing Zhu's takedown defense issues and Vargas's wrestling. He notes Zhu's youth and potential but thinks Vargas can exploit the grappling gap. He likes the plus money and thinks the line should be closer to a pick 'em. He also mentions that Zhu is on the card because of the Chinese market.

"i took a shot on the duck and i don't hate it you know what i wouldn't hate it either it's plus 215 it's a dog shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu by TKO in the second round. He is impressed by Zhu's highlight reel and activity, noting he has a 10-fight win streak and disguises his wins among lesser competition. He thinks Vargas is older and not as good, and that Zhu will finish him via ground and pound after Vargas survives a bit.

TKO in second round
"i'm going with wrong zhu"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.

Angelo says he will wait for prop bets such as Chris Padilla plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance (decision no action).
"I'm going out on a limb I'm picking the dog Chris Padilla"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.

"I'll go rangu to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.

"I'm G take Chris Padilla this is another PRP type long shot play"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.

"I think Rong zoo is gonna stuff this man's takedowns and bust him up... I'm going Rong zooo here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.

Rong Zhu by finish within 2 rounds
"I'm going to go uh wrong zuu here and I think he eventually finds the Finish within possibly two rounds or so."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Padilla

Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.

Chris Padilla by submission +600 (playable)
"Padilla I was interested in his submission prop it's obviously early in the week so numbers aren't the greatest six plus 600 is the best on Market which I think is like playable"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rong Zhu

The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.

"I think he's going to go out there and have a good performance against Chris Pilla... I think he's going to get this one done over Chris Padilla"
Comments (1)
BR
brian 11 months, 1 week ago

Nice elbow to swollen eye stoppage for Chris.