UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad

Big Brady picks Leon Edwards, citing his superior striking defense and takedown defense. He notes that Edwards is extremely hard to hit (absorbs 2.05 significant strikes per minute) and has a phenomenal get-up game. He expects Edwards to win a decision, possibly with a late stoppage. He acknowledges Muhammad's durability but believes Edwards' style will be too much. He is slightly concerned about cage rust but expects Edwards to continue his win streak.

Daniel Levi picks Belal Muhammad for the upset, citing his pace, cardio, and pressure. He believes Leon Edwards' two-year layoff and ring rust will be a factor, and that Muhammad's style of getting in his face and clinching will be difficult for Edwards. He notes Edwards has been taken down and dropped before, and thinks Muhammad's output and takedown attempts can win three rounds. He acknowledges the risk of Edwards' reach and straight punches but thinks Muhammad's durability and cardio will carry him.

Lock likes Leon Edwards here, citing his crisp striking and takedown defense as key advantages. He compares the matchup to Belal's fight with Jeff Neal, where Belal's pressure was nullified by a sharper striker. Lock believes Edwards' layoff won't be a major issue and that Belal's short-notice turnaround and calf kick damage from his last fight are concerns. He expects Edwards to be too technical and sharp on the feet, and thinks Belal will struggle to get takedowns. Lock acknowledges Belal's activity but sees Edwards as a step up in competition.

The Guru initially leans towards Muhammad but settles on Leon Edwards. He believes Edwards' improved clinch work and elbows will be key against Muhammad's pressure. He notes Edwards' reach advantage and ability to stuff takedowns, referencing Edwards' performance against Kamaru Usman. He also highlights Muhammad's compromised calf from his previous fight, which Edwards can target with leg kicks. He predicts Edwards will lose the first round due to ring rust but win the next four, resulting in a 4-1 decision.

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov, citing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (60%) and Cirkunov averages 4.42 takedowns per 15 minutes with 57% accuracy. He expects Cirkunov to get an early takedown and submit Spann in the first round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds as a bet. He wants to see weigh-ins due to Cirkunov's injury history.

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann as a dog, calling it a coin flip. He notes Spann's suspect chin and tendency to get knocked out on takedown attempts, but believes Misha Cirkunov is stiff and predictable. He thinks Spann's speed and power will catch Cirkunov, who has shown no ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but prefers the plus money.

Lock leans Cirkunov but has concerns about his chin durability, especially after the Johnny Walker knockout. He notes Spann has solid knockout power, which gives him pause. Lock thinks Cirkunov should be able to get the fight to the ground and work from there, possibly securing a submission. However, he's not sure if he'd bet at -145, indicating hesitation.

The Guru is confident in Misha Cirkunov, calling Ryan Spann 'mediocre' and criticizing his recent performances, including a KO loss to Johnny Walker. He believes Spann will be hesitant coming off that loss, allowing Cirkunov to take center and secure takedowns. He predicts Cirkunov will win by submission in the first round, specifically an arm triangle choke. He notes that Spann has been taken down by lesser grapplers and Cirkunov will capitalize.

Big Brady picks Gavin Tucker as an underdog, impressed by his recent performances and wrestling. He notes that Ige can be taken down (59% takedown defense) and Tucker is a BJJ black belt with excellent wrestling. He sees the striking as close and expects Tucker to win a close decision by mixing takedowns and volume. He acknowledges Ige has fought better competition but believes Tucker is in his prime.

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, believing he should be favored. He praises Tucker's volume, cardio, footwork, and jiu-jitsu, and notes that Tucker overcame adversity in his last fight. He thinks Dan Ige's chance is landing a big bomb, but Tucker's durability and output will win most minutes. He considers Ige overrated and thinks Tucker's skill set is superior.

Lock likes Tucker as a dog, trusting his gas tank more than Ige's. He thinks Tucker is smoother and more fluid on the feet, and can outstrike Ige as long as he avoids Ige's power and jiu-jitsu. Lock believes Tucker's jiu-jitsu can hold up against Ige's. He notes Ige's wins over Barboza and Bektic were close, and that Tucker's cardio is an advantage.

The Guru acknowledges Gavin Tucker as a live dog but picks Dan Ige due to his experience and a significant 5-inch reach advantage. He believes Ige's jab will be effective and that Ige has proven himself against higher-level competition like Edson Barboza and Calvin Kattar. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision, with Ige landing more shots each round. He also notes Tucker's age (34) and injury concerns.

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez, citing his striking advantage and training at a good camp. He notes that Grant has been submitted in all four of his losses and has poor takedown defense. He expects Martinez to win a clear 30-27 decision, possibly mixing in takedowns and threatening submissions. He sees Grant's path to victory via takedowns but believes Martinez has good get-up game and reversals.

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Martinez, citing his improved hands, devastating kicks, and youth. He notes Davey Grant is coming off a broken jaw and has been dropped in recent fights. He believes Martinez's dynamic striking and takedown defense will be too much for Grant, who may try to wrestle but will get caught. He expects a knockout or a clear decision for Martinez.

Lock is confident in Martinez, calling him an 'absolute beast' lately. He notes Martinez's recent wins over Frankie Saenz and Thomas Almeida. He thinks the fight should be relatively easy for Martinez, though he acknowledges the line is wide and he'd want to run more tape. He dismisses Grant's previous underdog win as being against a lower level of competition.

The Guru trusts Jonathan Martinez's level of competition and technical striking over Davey Grant. He highlights Martinez's leg kicks as a key factor, expecting him to chop at Grant's legs and neutralize Grant's heavy hooks. He criticizes Grant's win over Martin Day, noting that Day has been beaten by many fighters. He also points out Grant's close split decision with Gregory Popov. The Guru predicts Martinez will stay patient, land lead kicks and jabs, and win by unanimous decision, 30-27.

Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded skills including good wrestling and ground game. He notes that Kape looked poor in his UFC debut, doing more dancing than striking. He expects Nicolau to out-volume Kape on the feet and mix in takedowns, winning a decision. He acknowledges Kape has knockout power but believes Nicolau can avoid getting knocked out.

Daniel Levi picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded game, 100% takedown defense, and superior jiu-jitsu. He believes if Nicolau doesn't get caught, he wins. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern, but thinks Manel Kape is overrated and has been wobbled before. He also mentions Kape's excuse about slipping due to sweaty feet in the Pantoja fight, and thinks Nicolau's experience in the UFC octagon is an advantage.

Lock leans Nicolau, believing he was wrongfully cut from the UFC and is a legit fighter. He notes Nicolau's solid resume including wins over John Moraga and Louis Smolka, with his only UFC loss being a head kick KO to Dustin Ortiz. Lock is skeptical of Kape after his underwhelming UFC debut against Bruno Silva. He thinks Nicolau will make a statement. He calls Nicolau his most confident dog pick pre-tape.

The Guru initially leans towards a decision but changes to a KO pick for Manel Kape. He believes Kape suffered from octagon jitters in his debut against Alexandre Pantoja and will come out faster this time. He notes Nicolau's long layoff (since August 2019) and previous KO losses. The Guru expects Kape to put on pressure early and secure a TKO win at the end of the first round, citing Nicolau's inactivity and questionable chin.

Big Brady picks Darren Stewart, expressing distrust in Eryk Anders due to inconsistent performances and poor game plans. He notes Stewart has been more active and has better striking volume. He expects a boring fight going to decision, with Stewart winning by doing more on the feet. He is not confident enough to bet at -175 but sees Stewart as the likely winner.

Daniel Levi picks Eryk Anders as a dog, believing the fight is a 50/50 and Anders has paths to victory via takedowns and clinch work. He notes Anders' move to Fight Ready camp could improve his output, but he wants to see it first. He criticizes Darren Stewart's inconsistency and tendency to underperform, and thinks Stewart's price is too high. He expects a close decision where Anders edges it.

Lock favors Stewart, noting his hands and striking have been looking good, and his cardio is solid. He criticizes Anders for relying on athleticism rather than technique, and thinks Anders has been 'found out.' Lock believes Stewart should win, but thinks -185 is a bit wide, so he might stay off betting it. He mentions Anders' recent loss to Christos Giagos and Stewart's competitive fights with Kevin Holland and others.

The Guru is confident in Darren Stewart, citing Eryk Anders' recent lackluster performances and questionable win over Vinicius Moreira. He notes Stewart's technical, compact style and ability to push pace in later rounds. He expects Anders to win the first round but Stewart to take over in the second and third, winning by 29-28 unanimous decision. He also mentions Anders' age and accumulated brain damage from his NFL career and wars.

Big Brady picks Angela Hill, citing her significant striking advantage (nearly 6 significant strikes per minute vs Yoder's 2.8). He notes Hill has improved her takedown defense, stuffing takedowns from Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha. He expects Hill to dominate on the feet and win a decision, though he is not betting at the current price (-380).

Daniel Levi picks Angela Hill but warns against laying -400 on her, as all her fights are close. He expects a split decision and notes that Ashley Yoder could potentially submit Hill if she gets on top. He recalls their first fight where Hill won, but advises caution due to Hill's tendency to make fights close and her questionable claims of beating top fighters.

Lock will bet Yoder if she's above +300, as a half-unit stab. He thinks the odds are too twisted in Hill's favor. He notes Yoder was at +310/+320 before the fight was previously scheduled. He doesn't elaborate much on reasoning, indicating it's a value play based on line movement.

The Guru is extremely confident in Angela Hill, calling it 'guaranteed money.' He notes Hill's improved takedown defense and technical striking, while criticizing Yoder's lack of technical ability. He expects Hill to outstrike Yoder by double in significant strikes each round and win by unanimous decision, 30-27. He mentions Hill already beat Yoder before and will do so more impressively this time.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain, noting his higher level of competition and brown belt in BJJ. He expects Jourdain to hurt Rojo on the feet and then submit him, as Rojo has been submitted four times. He mentions Jourdain has never won by decision and has a 100% finish rate. He is not confident in the price (-270) but sees a path to victory via submission in the third round.

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain but is not fully sold, noting that Jourdain has never landed a takedown in the UFC, which could be a problem against a grappler. He acknowledges Rojo's weakness is submissions, but Jourdain doesn't wrestle. He thinks the fight may be closer than the line indicates, but Jourdain's experience and volume should win a close decision. He is concerned about Jourdain getting touched after his draw with Josh Culibao.

Lock is a huge Jourdain believer but is hesitant at -260, especially after Jourdain's competitive fight with Joshua Culibao. He hasn't run tape on Rojo yet, so he's not comfortable betting Jourdain at that price. He notes Rojo could have value at +260, but he needs to do more research.

The Guru believes Charles Jourdain has a solid chin and can recover well, as shown in his fight with Andre Fili. He expects Marcelo Rojo to come out aggressively looking for an early finish, but will gas out, allowing Jourdain to take over in the second and third rounds. The Guru notes Jourdain's size advantage and youth (25 vs 32) as factors. He predicts a TKO win for Jourdain in the third round, citing Jourdain's higher level of competition and ability to survive early storms.

Big Brady picks Rani Yahya, emphasizing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Rodriguez gets taken down in every fight and has been submitted multiple times, including by Chris Gutierrez. He expects Yahya to get the fight to the mat and finish via submission in the first round. He acknowledges the line might be wide but believes Yahya should win.

Daniel Levi picks Rani Yahya via submission, believing Yahya's grappling will be too much for Ray Rodriguez. He notes Yahya's early submission series is dangerous, but if Rodriguez survives the first round and a half, Yahya may gas out. He suggests live betting on Rodriguez if the fight goes past seven minutes. He acknowledges Yahya's history of losing to wrestlers but thinks Rodriguez lacks the grappling to avoid a submission.

Lock thinks Yahya might be worth the chalk despite the wide line, because Rodriguez 'does not look good.' He believes Yahya could snatch a quick submission. However, he hasn't run tape yet and wants to confirm. He's leaning towards Yahya but not fully committed.

The Guru considers Rani Yahya underrated in the bantamweight division and expects him to dominate with his grappling. He worries about Yahya's chin but believes Yahya can secure takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground. He criticizes Rodriguez's UFC credentials, noting his submission losses and lack of stand-up ability. The Guru predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Yahya, with Yahya diving for takedowns at the end of each round to secure the win.

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing significant advantages in size, reach, and striking technique. He notes that García is smaller (possibly 5'5" or 5'6") and wild on the feet, leaving openings. He expects Haqparast to stuff takedowns and land a knockout, predicting a second-round finish. He also mentions García is coming in on short notice, which is a disadvantage.

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast because he has faster hands, more UFC experience, and a powerful left hand. He believes Rafa García's undefeated record gives him false confidence, and his style of throwing single shots and overextending will be exploited by Haqparast. He expects Haqparast to potentially knock García out or win a decision, becoming the first man to defeat him.

Lock thinks the line on Don Madge (Rafa García) at +240 is a bit wide. He considers Madge the better striker technically, with a kicking game and crisper strikes down the middle. He notes Haqparast moves forward with wild shots. Lock is intrigued by the value but hasn't done full tape study.

The Guru acknowledges the risk in picking Nasrat Haqparast due to Don Madge's dangerous striking and fast-twitch style. However, he believes Haqparast's takedown defense and pressure-based striking will allow him to outland Madge each round. He notes Haqparast's youth and activity advantage, and that both fighters have similar reach. He predicts a close unanimous decision win for Haqparast, 30-27, with Haqparast barely outstriking Madge each round.

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is not confident, calling it a close fight. He notes that Casey has terrible takedown defense (37%) and Aldrich could exploit that by mixing in takedowns, though Aldrich rarely attempts them. He sees the striking as near 50-50 with a slight edge to Aldrich. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28 split, and advises against betting on this fight.

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey reluctantly, reasoning that if there are no takedowns, Casey's higher output could edge a split decision. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense and questionable decisions, but notes that JJ Aldridge rarely shoots for takedowns and has been stopped standing. He believes Casey's toughness and volume could be enough in a striking match.

Lock loves Aldrich's fighting style, noting she moves forward, throws combinations with heat, and has good technique. He mentions her close fight with Sabina Mazo that could have gone her way. He thinks she can cause Casey issues on the feet and is confident at -140. He questions Casey's recent form.

The Guru initially changes his mind mid-sentence but ultimately picks Cortney Casey as an underdog. He believes Casey's experience against tougher competition gives her an edge, and he criticizes JJ Aldridge's losses, particularly to Macy Barber and Sabina Mazo. He expects a scrappy fight where Casey secures a submission, specifically an armbar, in the second round. He notes that Casey has fought better opponents and her losses look better than Aldridge's.

Big Brady picks Gloria de Paula, largely fading Jinh Yu Frey due to her extremely low volume and inability to reach 30 significant strikes in her UFC fights. He notes de Paula is the bigger fighter, trains at a good camp (Shoot Box with Mara Romero Borella), and should be able to stuff takedowns. He sees de Paula out-striking Frey and possibly finishing her, though he predicts a decision win.

Daniel Levi picks Gloria de Paula because she is more aggressive, has cleaner strikes, and better takedown defense than her girlfriend Mayra Bueno Silva. He dismisses Jinh Yu Frey's experience advantage, noting she lost to less experienced opponents. He believes de Paula's willingness to go forward and her heart will overwhelm Frey, who hesitates and has been broken in recent fights.

Lock leans Frey due to not knowing much about de Paula. He notes Frey is a veteran with solid experience, a former champion in Rizin, and a strong all-around fighter. He acknowledges he needs to research de Paula to understand why she's the favorite. His lean is strictly based on unfamiliarity with de Paula.

The Guru is impressed with Gloria de Paula's performance on the Contender Series, noting her technical striking, patience, and increasing volume as the fight progressed. He believes de Paula has great potential and is younger than Frey. He criticizes Frey for being too small for the strawweight division and suggests an atomweight division should exist. He predicts de Paula will win by unanimous decision, 30-27, outstriking Frey and not finishing her because Frey is tough.

Big Brady picks Jason Witt, citing Witt's superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Witt trains at Glory MMA with James Krause and expects a game plan focused on takedowns. He acknowledges Witt's poor chin but believes he can avoid getting knocked out by taking the fight to the mat. He predicts a submission win in the second round, similar to Witt's last fight against Cole Williams.

Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger because Jason Witt has a questionable chin and has been wobbled several times on the regional scene. He believes Semelsberger is strong enough to stuff takedowns and will eventually clip Witt. However, he notes Semelsberger's defensive wrestling is a concern, but Witt's chin is an even bigger liability. He expects the fight to go three rounds due to Semelsberger's greenness.

Lock favors Witt, citing his solid takedowns, good top control, and crushing top game. He downplays Semelsberger's win over Carlton Minus, calling Minus a low-tier fighter. Lock notes he hasn't seen much of Semelsberger's grappling and thinks Witt's wrestling could be the difference. He's cautious but leans Witt.

The Guru believes Jason Witt is being undervalued by oddsmakers and will end up as a favorite by fight night. He criticizes Matthew Semelsberger's best win over Colton Minus, calling Minus a 'can crusher' and noting that another fighter stepped in on one day's notice and outgrinded Minus. The Guru expects Witt's grappling to be the difference, taking Semelsberger down each round and controlling him with ground and pound. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Witt, 30-27, with Witt securing rounds via ground control.