vs
+110 -122
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021 · Light Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad Next Fight
Age 34
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 6' 3"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ryan Spann
3.19 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
52.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Misha Cirkunov
3.86 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.06 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
4.15 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Ryan Spann
Moneyline
BetWay +110
KO/TKO
BetWay +225
Submission
BetWay +600
Decision
BetWay +700
Misha Cirkunov
Moneyline
FanDuel -122
KO/TKO
BetWay +600
Submission
BetWay +140
Decision
BetWay +700
Ryan Spann - Fight History
KO R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus Buchecha 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 7 14% 1 0 1:09
Ryan Spann 1 15 of 27 55% 20 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 1 of 6 16% 1 0 1:05
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 18 55% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:29
2 Marcus Buchecha 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Ryan Spann 1 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus Buchecha 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 4 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 15 of 27 55% 11 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 10 of 18 55% 7 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 10
2 Marcus Buchecha 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marcus Almeida vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-150); Spann (+125)

Round 1
From one all-time great grappler in Vieira to another in “Buchecha” Almeida (5-2-1, 0-1-1 UFC) we go. The big man from Brazil is still seeking his first UFC victory, and he will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of massive ex-light heavyweight Spann (23-11, 9-6 UFC). The Texan once weighed 205 pounds, and he bulked up to a sleek, svelte 264 pounds for this one, or about 11 pounds higher than the established heavyweight he is battling now. To maintain control of the big fellas, referee Herb Dean may need maximum effort. Gloves are touched before they are traded.
Almeida slams a low kick home, which lands with a resounding thud. Spann bounces back and forth to swing a one-two, and Almeida pushes off his face as a finger scrapes Spann’s eye. Spann signals to Dean that he was fouled, and Dean tells him to fight on. From across the cage, Almeida sprints at Spann to take the fight down, and Spann counters with a brief guillotine choke before letting it go to scramble. With Almeida not quite taking the fight down, Spann hovers over him bludgeoning him with his fists. Almeida fights out of the worst of it and turns to his knees to power back to his feet, and he immediately searches for a level change. Almeida wrenches his foe to the floor, and Spann’s attempted guillotine falls apart seconds after he tries for it. Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke, and Spann pulls out of it and rips himself back up to his feet. Spann runs towards the cage to escape, not knowing if Almeida is hot on his heels, and he bounces off of it and takes a deep breath. Spann re-engages, and he pushes on the back of Almeida’s neck when Almeida pursues a takedown.
Spann drills his foe with an uppercut and controls Almeida to push him to his back for a moment, and when Almeida turns to his knees, Spann lets him flip over so he can knee him in the ribs. Spann backs away, and Almeida slowly lumbers his way back to his feet. Spann offers up a front kick on the jaw, and “Buchecha” drills his front leg with a kick that makes Spann take a very funny step. Almeida goes for a one-two to set up a double, and when Spann shoves him to the mat, the American turns to escape a sudden heel hook that came out of nowhere. Almeida scrambles to hunt for a takedown, and Spann uses a guillotine to threaten just long enough to bulldoze Almeida over. With Almeida on his knees, Spann connects with a strong knee to the side. Almeida pushes him off, and Spann stands up and just waits until the oddball round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
A glove touch kicks off the round, both men breathing a big hard after a frenetic five-round stretch. Almeida pushes out with his fingers outstretched, and Spann complains about a poke as Dean calls time and issues a very hard warning to “Buchecha.” They resume shortly thereafter, with Spann standing in the pocket ready to throw hands. Before he can, Almeida once more leads with his fingers out, and Dean shows him how to close his fist. Almeida swings after the break, aiming for a takedown after it. Spann is wise to it and uses his guillotine to not threaten the actual submission but control the posture well enough to force Almeida to think about another angle. Almeida turns his way out of it and works his way back to his feet, as Spann does not want to chill out in the guard. On his feet again, Almeida prods out a solid jab.
Spann works around the jab, swinging all his might behind a left hook and a follow-up straight right hand that smash about as cleanly on the jaw as one can. Almeida crumples to this back, eyes staring off into space and not remotely ready to defend anything else as he is all done.
Dean rushes between them to make sure Spann is not about to batter his doomed opponent further. Spann knows his work here is done and proceeds to dance around the cage, as he has now become the first fighter in MMA to finish “Buchecha.”

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Marcus Almeida R2 2:10 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann confidently, calling him the much better striker with better cage awareness and killer instinct. He notes that Marcus Buchecha needs to get the fight to the ground or pray that Spann fades, but Spann has power and takedown defense that should hold up. He dismisses Buchecha's UFC performances as unconvincing.

"Ryan Span is going to be the pick because of the power and hopefully the takedown defense holds up."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Big Brady picks Marcus Buchecha over Ryan Spann. He questions Spann's fight IQ and training habits, noting Spann is a light heavyweight moving up. He believes Buchecha's size and grappling will be too much, predicting a first-round submission as long as Buchecha fights smart.

Buchecha wins by first round submission
"Give me Buchecha by first round submission."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Apr 25, 2026 (fight day)
Ryan Spann

The host is tempted to bet Spann as a slight underdog because Buchecha has terrible cardio and poor striking defense, while Spann has knockout power and better cardio. However, Spann has bad fight IQ, making it risky. He notes Buchecha is awful and he has made money betting against him before. He says if Spann wins, it will likely be inside the distance, so the moneyline is better than the fight spread.

If Spann wins, likely inside distance; over/under too risky; prefers moneyline over fight spread
"Spann's a very tempting bet as a slight underdog, and I may bet him this weekend, but obviously whenever you bet Ryan Spann, you are taking a big risk."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

James picks Buchecha, citing Spann's poor cardio and tendency to fade after round one. He believes Buchecha's durability, submission defense, and will to win will allow him to survive early danger and take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Marcus Betcha for that reason. ... I am confident on Betcha."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Marcus Buchecha

Buchecha is a BJJ legend but has struggled to get takedowns and has poor striking. Spann has knockout power and a sneaky guillotine, but he has mental lapses and often gets finished early. Buchecha should be able to get Spann to the ground and submit him early, but the -145 price is not great value.

fight finishes under 7.5 minutes
"I'm expecting an early finish here. No matter who ends up getting their hand raised, I think it's going to be Buches who's going to get Span to the ground. And I think from there he'll be able to get …"
Submission R1 2:47 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:14
Łukasz Brzeski 0 5 of 8 62% 23 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 8 of 19 42% 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 9
Łukasz Brzeski 5 of 8 62% 1 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 4 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.

"Ryan Span should win this fight. Ryan Span is going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.

Spann by first round knockout
"I have to take Ryan Span. There's no way I'm ever picking Lucas Presky to win a UFC fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.

finish inside the distance
"I think Span ends up finding the finish inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Łukasz Brzeski

The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.

"I'm going to go with Berserki um or however you pronounce his name."
KO R2 4:48 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 66 of 111 59% 77 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:57
Ryan Spann 0 23 of 86 26% 24 of 87 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 49 55% 31 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Ryan Spann 0 12 of 33 36% 13 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 1 39 of 62 62% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Ryan Spann 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 111 59% 56 of 97 4 of 6 6 of 8 59 of 100 1 of 2 6 of 9
Ryan Spann 23 of 86 26% 11 of 70 5 of 9 7 of 7 22 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 49 55% 21 of 40 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ryan Spann 12 of 33 36% 5 of 23 2 of 5 5 of 5 11 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 39 of 62 62% 35 of 57 3 of 3 1 of 2 34 of 55 0 of 0 5 of 7
Ryan Spann 11 of 53 20% 6 of 47 3 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-166), Spann (+140)

Round 1
The preliminaries conclude with a heavyweight match that could provide a new contender when the dust settles. Cortes-Acosta (12-1, 5-1 UFC) has won five of six as a full-framed heavyweight, and his opponent Spann (22-10, 8-5 UFC) is introducing himself to the weight class by no longer cutting weight. The ex-205er weighed 249 pounds, so he will be adequately sized as he also stands an inch taller. Referee Mark Smith will be minding his P’s and Q’s as the big men throw down, and he stands by as they clap hands first. Spann strikes first with a heavy leg kick, and Smith tells the heavyweights to watch their extended fingers. Cortes-Acosta responds with his own low kick, but Spann’s has much more behind it. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a left hook, and a big overhand right of his bangs into Spann’s raised guard. Spann kicks high and is blocked, and he kicks low but is not. Cortes-Acosta wades in with winging punches, and Spann is well out of harm’s way in time. Spann hammers the front leg with a kick, and he counters one coming his way with a thudding overhand right that stuns the man from Dominican Republic. Cortes-Acosta leans forward and the two clash heads, and Smith calls time to make sure no damage resulted from it. He resumes them, and the fighters trade punches. Cortes-Acosta catches Spann on the temple with a blistering right hand, and he uses his weight to drag Spann to the fence. Spann breaks free and plunks Cortes-Acosta with an overhand right, but Cortes-Acosta’s uppercut shakes him up again. Both men swing their fists from down beneath their hips, getting full torque into it. They both lash out with low kicks, and Cortes-Acosta checks it and draws a funny reaction from his opponent. Spann comes up short with a front kick, and Cortes-Acosta chews up his front leg with another kick. Spann goes to the body with his front kick, and Cortes-Acosta winds up with bad intentions looping his haymakers at the former light heavyweight. They clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta drives punches into Spann until Spann breaks away and launches some of his own. Spann gets off a low kick and slips out of the way from “Salsa Boy,” and Cortes-Acosta measures his man with a jab and a right hand that hurts Spann again. Cortes-Acosta’s forward momentum results in a tie-up, using his higher weight to toss Spann to his back. Spann tries to upkick him in the legs a few times until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The fighters lead off with a brief glove touch, and Spann is quick to fight behind his jab. Cortes-Acosta snaps his head back with a straight right hand, and he is met with a front kick to the belly. Cortes-Acosta jabs his man in the belly, but the fist goes low and bangs into Spann’s cup. Smith calls time, and Spann drops to his knees and takes a little under a minute to recover. They resume, and Cortes-Acosta flashes out his jab as Spann does the same. Cortes-Acosta scores a left and a right, and Spann indicates he was poked in the eye. Smith again pauses the action and checks the replay, and they get back to it after a few seconds. Spann jams the body with a kick, and he wings a huge right hand that Cortes-Acosta rolls with. Spann whiffs on another, and a third is met with a sharp jab from his foe. Spann is irritated about getting poked in the eye, and Smith issues a loud warning to Cortes-Acosta. Spann overthrows his punches, and the Dominican is beating him to the punch and clips the Fortis MMA fighter with his overhand right. Cortes-Acosta kicks the inner thigh, and the strike pounds square into his cup. Smith sighs heavily and calls time one more time. Spann crouches down and is not a happy camper after receiving these fouls, and Smith issues a final warning to Cortes-Acosta to keep things clean. The Texan takes more time than before to get his wind back, with Cortes-Acosta getting away with multiple fouls without a point deduction. The fighters get back to business after another 90-second break, and Spann returns to fighting behind his jab. Spann rifles off a calf kick, and Cortes-Acosta lands a powerful right hand across the forward bow. “Superman” dodges a check left hook but is unable to get away from the jab, and Cortes-Acosta loads up on his overhand right and sways the right direction to avoid one coming his direction. Cortes-Acosta prods with a jab until Spann bears down on him, and he uses the jab again to keep Spann honest. A one-two from Spann does not find its target, and he dances away from a similar pair of blows. Cortes-Acosta’s head movement and footwork keeps him safe, and he clubs Spann in the side of the dome. Spann spins with a back kick, and he shoots for a double that is met with 262 pounds of meat and several punches on the side of the head. Spann explodes back to his feet, and Cortes-Acosta is on him clubbing him with fists.
Spann swings back, still in trouble, and Cortes-Acosta sticks him with a jab and follows with a short left hook that levels Spann. When “Superman” hits the ground, Smith is already racing in towards the fighters, only to allow a few more punctuating hammerfists and punches to briefly shut Spann’s lights out.
Smith gets between them and allows Cortes-Acosta to reposition his foe’s legs who are tangled up with his, and Cortes-Acosta walks off to celebrate his handiwork. The ranked heavyweight calls for fights against either Tai Tuivasa or Derrick Lewis, and both are within his reach given his success in the division thus far.

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Ryan Spann R2 4:48 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Ryan Spann. He believes Waldo is faster, has better movement, and cardio, while Spann's last win was his first in three years against an older opponent. He notes that public money might come in on Spann, making Waldo even better value.

"Waldo's the pick and that's not just because we were both in the movie the burden of Nine Lives."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, reasoning that Ryan Spann is a round-one-or-bust fighter who fades after the first five minutes. He notes Spann's last win outside the first round was a split decision in 2020. Brady believes Cortes Acosta has good durability and cardio, and if he survives the first round, he will take over in the later rounds with higher output. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.

Cortes Acosta by decision
"give me Waldo Cortez aosta by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Julius Walker, noting that the UFC is giving him a bounce-back fight after a competitive debut against Alonzo Menifield. He believes Raphael Cerqueira is a low-level opponent with poor durability and that Walker will win easily. He acknowledges the high price but sees it as a safe play.

"I feel like Julius really puts it on him. And the UFC understands fully. We've seen guys like Martin Budai six and one in the UFC cut. We've seen guys, you know, talented prospects, maybe like a TJ Laramie, he …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The host believes Cortes Acosta's takedown defense will keep the fight standing, allowing him to run away with the matchup in deep water and win on the scorecards.

"I believe Cortez a Costa's ability to keep span at Bay utilizing some decent enough takedown defense keeping this fight in the stand up realm and I think that will see Cortez aosta start to run away with this matchup …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Walker, citing his athleticism and the favorable matchup. He notes that Cerqueira has a padded record and has been knocked out quickly. He believes Walker will roll and sees value in the win, despite the high price.

"Walker for me. You"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, believing in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight. He notes Spann has touch-of-death power and dangerous grappling, though he has bad IQ moments. He criticizes Waldo Cortes Acosta as a 'fat heavyweight' who nearly got fraud-checked by Jared Vanderaa and has poor takedown entries. He thinks Spann's experience against better competition gives him the edge, and he expects a knockout.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span I'm GNA go with Ryan span over wildo Cortez a Costa I believe in light heavyweights succeeding at heavyweight"
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:35 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Ovince Saint Preux 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ovince Saint Preux 7 of 10 70% 2 of 3 0 of 2 5 of 5 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann, citing his youth, danger, and finishing ability. He notes Ovince Saint Preux is older and hesitant. However, he is not betting on this fight due to the short notice and elevation, which could lead to a staring contest. He thinks the under 1.5 rounds line is tempting but unreliable.

Not betting due to uncertainty
"I'm going to pick Ryan span here... I'm not betting on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann to win by first-round knockout, acknowledging that Spann is dangerous early but fades if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that OSP is 41 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters like Tanner Boser and Philipe Lins, so Spann's power should be enough. He understands why people are betting OSP but trusts Spann's first-round finishing ability.

first round knockout
"I'm going take a Ryan span here to win this fight by first round knockout it's hard to trust him I see why people are betting OSP but I I mean I think Ryan span should I mean Ryan span …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Cody picks OSP, citing Spann's cardio issues and tendency to quit. He thinks OSP's durability and experience at altitude will allow him to outlast Spann. He expects a late finish or decision.

"OSP will be the pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Connor picks Spann, arguing that OSP's recent wins have come against smaller or slower opponents, while Spann is neither. Spann is fast and huge, and OSP's age and decline make him a poor bet. He notes that Spann's losses are bad, but he has the physical tools to beat OSP.

"I convinced you to pick Ryan's bond. Because OSP is... the fights that he's won are either against guys much smaller than him in the past or much slower than him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Ovince Saint Preux, citing his unorthodox style and veteran tactics. He notes that Ryan Spann is a talented flake with a weak chin and poor decision-making. Vreeland points out that OSP has beaten other Forest MMA fighters and had a career-high output in his last fight. He expects OSP to win if he survives the early rounds.

"I think ovince uh is going to complete the trifecta of the and be the forest MMA killer"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

The host believes Ovince Saint Preux will avoid the early finishing power of Ryan Spann and then chip away at him in the second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards. He notes that the moneyline is very juicy at the current price, indicating value.

moneyline is very juicy at the current price
"I do believe same PR will do a good enough job in terms of avoiding the early finishing power of Ryan span and then chipping away at him in the second and third rounds where he should be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ovince Saint Preux

Paul picks OSP but with less confidence than before. He notes the altitude and Spann's cardio problems. He thinks OSP can find a finish or win a decision if he conserves energy.

"OSP will be the pick but I like it less"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann to KO Ovince Saint Preux, despite acknowledging Spann's poor decision-making. He believes Spann's explosive power and size will be too much for the 41-year-old OSP, who he considers finished. He expects Spann to land a brutal knockout on the early prelims, as OSP is unlikely to get takedowns and the fight will stay standing.

"I'm going to go with Ryan span you guys I've got a good feeling that he's going to KO oin St PR he's a big Power Striker he's very explosive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that OSP's recent wins are unimpressive and Spann has the size and speed advantage. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but believes he will win this matchup.

"Fine. I'll, I'll, you're gaslighting me right now. I'm quite sure I picked OSP. You're just lying to me, but you can pick him."
LOSS vs Bogdan Guskov
TKO (punches) R2 3:16 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Guskov 0 15 of 38 39% 20 of 44 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 1 31 of 48 64% 49 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Guskov 0 6 of 10 60% 11 of 16 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:29
Ryan Spann 0 3 of 8 37% 21 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Guskov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 1 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Guskov 15 of 38 39% 10 of 30 3 of 6 2 of 2 11 of 34 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 31 of 48 64% 30 of 47 0 of 0 1 of 1 17 of 31 0 of 0 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Guskov 6 of 10 60% 3 of 6 2 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 6 2 of 2 2 of 2
Ryan Spann 3 of 8 37% 2 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Guskov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 24 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 28 of 40 70% 28 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0 14 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

Round 1
Herb Dean will oversee the co-main event. Both men show a lot of respect. Guskov throws an overhand right. Spann gets in on a takedown and then lands a knee to the groin. The fight is paused. They're put back in position oddly. Spann lands another low blow with a knee. Dean doesn't take a point despite two fouls in a row. They touch gloves as the fight continues. Spann lands an overhand right. Spann is able to get a takedown and lands in guard. Guskov gives up side control. Spann is able to get into mount and is looking to take the back. Guskov almost escapes, but Spann is able to get his hooks in and takes the back. Spann is looking for a rear-naked choke with a minute left. Guskov is flattened out, so Spann abandons the attempt and starts punching before the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Spann
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Spann

Round 2
It is a slow start to the second round as both men are hesitant about the other's power. Both men miss with hooks. Guskov hurts Spann with a right hand and then a left hook. Spann dives for a takedown to no avail. Spann fires back with a right hand of his own. Guskov eats a giant overhand right. Spann lands another looping punch. Guskov comes forward with straight punches and is beating Spann to the punch.
A huge uppercut hurts Spann. A right hand floors Spann, who then eats a series of vicious right hands on the ground. Herb Dean finally steps in, and this is over!

The Official Result
Bogdan Guskov def. Ryan Spann TKO (Punches); R2, 3:16.
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo picks Ryan Spann due to experience, size, and durability. He thinks Bogdan Guskov may have early success but will fade, while Spann will survive and take over. He notes Spann is dangerous everywhere (striking, submissions, wrestling) and has cardio for 15 minutes. He believes Spann likely wins by decision or late stoppage, but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"Ryan span is going to be the pick because of experience I don't know if I trust him enough to bet on him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bogdan Guskov

Cody leans toward Guskov as a doger pass, citing Spann's inconsistencies and poor durability. He thinks Guskov's power gives him a puncher's chance, especially if Spann's weight cut is rough. However, he admits Guskov is not very good and the pick is high variance.

by KO (estimated +200)
"it's a doger pass type of spot for me Goose can or Goose can that may actually be he could be I don't think this guy's very good whatsoever but you're laying a A plus 170 him by knockout would …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel acknowledges Spann's talent and athleticism but calls him a 'talented flake' with mental issues and a history of getting knocked out the same way. He thinks Spann should win based on skills but can't lay -190 on him. He leans Spann but passes on betting.

"I lean Ryan span but minus 190 minus 200 is not a lean price so I think it's a dogger pass situation but pure pick I'm going go Ryan span here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Spann has the athleticism, power, and speed advantage. He should be able to hurt Guskov early and find a finish, likely in the first round. Guskov was knocked out in his UFC debut and may be vulnerable to Spann's power. I expect Spann to win by first-round knockout.

"I do think that we'll see Ryan span dictate the pace really put the pressure on gusov and then eventually find that early finish here give me span and span by first round knock"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul picks Spann despite his inconsistencies, arguing Spann has faced much better competition and is more skilled overall. He believes Spann's takedowns and grappling will be the difference, and that Guskov's padded record and lack of durability will be exposed.

"I got to go with span again he's just the better guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann, noting that Bogdan Guskov has never fought someone taller than him and keeps his hands down. He criticizes Guskov's style of throwing shovel hooks from the waist, which may not work against a longer opponent. He believes Spann's reach and low kicks will be effective, and mentions Spann's guillotine threat. He predicts Spann will win, possibly by low kicks.

"I'm going with Ryan span over Bogdan gusov"
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 91 of 147 61% 91 of 147 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Ryan Spann 0 59 of 187 31% 62 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:45
Ryan Spann 0 10 of 41 24% 10 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Anthony Smith 0 22 of 36 61% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Ryan Spann 0 22 of 60 36% 25 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Anthony Smith 0 45 of 69 65% 45 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ryan Spann 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 91 of 147 61% 44 of 92 12 of 15 35 of 40 90 of 146 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 59 of 187 31% 39 of 158 14 of 23 6 of 6 50 of 174 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 24 of 42 57% 9 of 25 1 of 1 14 of 16 23 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 10 of 41 24% 5 of 32 4 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Anthony Smith 22 of 36 61% 10 of 22 4 of 4 8 of 10 22 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 22 of 60 36% 16 of 52 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 47 0 of 0 9 of 13
3 Anthony Smith 45 of 69 65% 25 of 45 7 of 10 13 of 14 45 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ryan Spann 27 of 86 31% 18 of 74 5 of 8 4 of 4 27 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Angelo believes Smith's best days are behind him, citing his recent loss to Johnny Walker where he was dropped and then headhunted. He thinks Spann will be too big, fast, and powerful for Smith. He has a full unit bet on Spann at -147, noting that the bet is more about Smith's decline than Spann's rise.

Full unit bet on Ryan Spann at -147
"I think that this is gonna be Ryan span all day I have a full unit on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady questions why this rematch is happening, noting Anthony Smith dominated the first fight. However, he believes Smith looks uninterested and has taken too much damage, citing his recent performances against Johnny Walker and Magomed Ankalaev. He thinks Spann is dangerous everywhere and will knock out Smith in the first round, as Smith's durability is declining.

first round knockout
"give me Ryan span to knock out Anthony Smith in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

Cody picks Smith because he already beat Spann via submission and is getting plus money. He notes that Spann is a one-round fighter who fades under adversity, while Smith has better grappling and durability. Cody believes Smith can survive the early onslaught and take over later in the fight.

Smith by submission; under 1.5 rounds
"Smith beat him clean with the Striking last time and then finished the deal with the submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel picks Ryan Spann, reasoning that Spann is an athletic freak who can catch Smith early. He notes that Smith is coming off a leg break and looked terrible against Johnny Walker. He acknowledges that Smith dominated the first fight, but believes Spann's power and explosiveness give him a chance to finish early. He is not confident, calling it a lean.

"I'm gonna go Ryan span to catch him early and just get him out of there kind of a front running loaded Victory"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Anthony Smith

James picks Anthony Smith, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Smith hurt and submitted Spann in their first fight, and Spann's finishing equity drops after round one. He believes Smith is not as washed as some think and that the line is off. He also mentions Smith's historical durability and difficulty to submit.

"I'm all over the Smith side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Anthony Smith

The host recalls Smith's submission win over Spann in their first fight and believes Smith's veteran experience and confidence will allow him to replicate that performance. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and expects Smith to exchange in the pocket, hurt Spann, and submit him again. The host likes the under 1.5 rounds prop and finds Smith as a dog 'absolutely crazy'.

under 1.5 rounds
"Give me Smith as the dog which I find absolutely crazy considering this fight you know happened like two years ago not much has changed."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Paul initially picks Spann due to his recent wins and early explosiveness, but after Cody corrects him on the first fight result, he switches to Smith. However, his original pick was Spann, so we capture that. He notes Spann is dangerous early but fades, and Smith is durable enough to survive.

under 1.5 rounds
"I'll pick span because he already won seems to have a bit of a grappling Edge early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru picks Ryan Spann in the rematch, believing Anthony Smith has declined physically and mentally. He notes Smith's poor physique and lack of fast-twitch fibers, comparing him to a fighter past his prime. He thinks Spann's scrambling and power will be enough, and that Smith won't land the same hook again. He predicts Spann will catch Smith and finish him, possibly in round two, leading to Smith's retirement.

Finish in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Ryan span at some point catches him in this fight and puts him away maybe round two"
LOSS vs Nikita Krylov
Submission (triangle choke) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nikita Krylov 0 7 of 12 58% 24 of 31 2 of 2 100% 2 2 2:39
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 1 of 2 50% 1 2 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nikita Krylov 7 of 12 58% 2 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3 3 of 7 3 of 4 1 of 1
Ryan Spann 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nikita Krylov vs. Ryan Spann
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Krylov (-170), Spann (+145)

Round 1
Two weeks later than expected, fans in the building should soon be treated to an all-action slugfest in what was supposed to be the UFC Vegas 70 headliner. A combined 38 first-round finishes have come between Krylov (29-9, 10-7 UFC) and Spann (21-7, 7-2 UFC), with stellar stoppage rates of 93% for the former and 86% for the Texan. Referee Herb Dean better buckle up for this one, although he is able to take solace knowing it is still a matchup without any bad blood. With the cancelation a few weeks ago, this is no longer taking place at light heavyweight, and instead at 215 pounds. Fists are bumped before they throw down, and when they do, it should be one heck of a show. Spann reaches out with an early jab as Krylov kicks, and Spann follows it with a few punches that knock Krylov around. Krylov gains space after bouncing off the fence, and he pops Spann with a right hand to wobble the Texan’s legs. Krylov advances to try to keep swinging, and he ends up clinched up with his opponent. Spann throws Krylov down to the mat, and he lands on top and starts fishing for a submission. Krylov sits up and finds his neck in submission danger, but he shucks off the first guillotine choke try as Spann switches to a brabo choke. Krylov stays patient, and Spann adjusts his head and settles down with another guillotine. “The Miner” digs through the pain and discomfort to yank his neck free, and the two fighters work their way back upright. Krylov holds Spann from behind and kicks him in the side of the face awkwardly, and he drags Spann down to the ground. Spann turns the tables to take Krylov down, and Spann winds up in a guillotine choke threat on the other side. Spann slides out the back door and frees himself, and he grabs a two-on-one wrist lock in an attempt to scramble out. Krylov stays tightly pressed to him and lands a few punches that might have hit the back of the head. Spann stands up and Krylov falls over, and Spann jumps on top of him to drop hammers down.
When Spann lands on top, Krylov wraps his legs up around his opponent's head to tighten up a triangle choke. Spann knows this time, there is no way out, as he fell right into a trap. “Superman” is forced to surrender to the choke, as the crowd is silenced at the sudden conclusion of the mighty grappling battle.
This gives the victor, who is not representing a country given the Russian invasion of his home country of Ukraine, his 30th pro win and 28th by stoppage.

The Official Result
Nikita Krylov def. Ryan Spann R1 3:38 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Angelo originally picked Nikita Krylov due to his wrestling and grinding ability, but the illness has significantly reduced his confidence. He still thinks Krylov will win if he is 100%, but he is no longer betting on him. He suggests a prop bet on Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) because Spann is dangerous and the fight is now three rounds instead of five.

Ryan Spann inside the distance (decision no action) bet suggestion
"I'm no longer gonna bet on the key to cry love I've lost that much confidence him I think he probably still wins this... but the bet is definitely going to be Ryan span inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Big Brady picks Ryan Spann for the slight upset, noting both fighters have durability issues. He questions Krylov's submission defense (submitted six times) and Spann's chin. Brady expects a first-round finish, predicting Spann locks up a guillotine when Krylov shoots for takedowns. He has low confidence but thinks someone gets finished early.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say span locks up locks up a submission here in the very first round hard to be confident in picking a winner in this fight but I'll take span for the slight upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody flips to Ryan Spann, citing Krylov's recent illness and the change from five rounds to three rounds. He thinks Spann's cardio is less of a concern in a three-round fight and notes Spann's submission threat. He believes the narrative of Krylov pulling out is enough to take the underdog.

"I think I'm flip-flopping over to Ryan span and again it's for like nothing other than just bad juju narrative by Nikita Karlov pulls out of a fight two weeks ago"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Connor picks Krylov, emphasizing his durability and relentless wrestling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (83% takedown defense when excluding the Enrique fight) and that Krylov will keep shooting takedowns. Connor also points out that Krylov has never been knocked out and is crafty in finding ways to win. He expects Krylov to survive Spann's early power and take over with grappling.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I think the only reason I would ever pick Ryan Spann in this fight is on the idea that he would knock Nikita Krylov out and that has never happened. ... Krylov, he wrestles everyone. That is really truly how …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

I think Krylov's improved grappling and takedown game will be key. He should drag Spann to the ground and work from top position, but he must be careful of Spann's guillotine. Spann's early power is a threat, but if Krylov survives the first round, he can take over. I expect a submission or TKO in the latter rounds. However, the early threat from Spann makes me hesitant to bet this fight.

Krylov inside the distance, by submission
"give me krilloff inside the distance let's say by submission but that early threat from Ryan span is going to be it's going to be a lot which will likely keep me off of this fight completely"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Paul picks Krylov but with less confidence than two weeks ago due to Krylov pulling out of the previous fight. He notes Krylov's improvements and path to victory via takedowns, but questions why Krylov pulled out. He thinks the -170 price is about right and calls it a stay-away.

"crylove is still the pick but I'm even less confident in it this week than I was last week or two weeks ago"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

The MMA Guru picks Nikita Krylov, citing Ryan Spann's weight cut issues and the fact that Spann missed weight in his last fight. He believes Krylov's illness may help him keep weight down, while Spann will struggle with two weight cuts back-to-back. He predicts Krylov will push the pace, take Spann down, and get a TKO or submission in the later rounds.

by TKO or submission, second or third round
"I'm gonna trust in Nikita krylov even though he was Ill been two weeks he's definitely recovered since then I think the illness will help him keep his weight down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nikita Krylov

Zane picks Krylov, agreeing with Connor's assessment. He highlights Spann's terrible takedown defense and Krylov's durability. Zane notes that Krylov is not a clean technician but makes good decisions and is flexible. He expects Krylov to take Spann down and grind out a win, as Spann is chinny and tense.

Odds mentioned: Krylov opened -170, now -172; Spann opened +145, now +143.
"I got a numbers like that. I mean, even with the 50%, how do you not pick Krylov? You know, he's going to keep trying."
KO (punches) R1 1:20 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dominick Reyes 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 12 41% 1 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dominick Reyes 8 of 17 47% 7 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dominick Reyes vs. Ryan Spann (206.6: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Reyes (-205), Spann (+175)

Round 1
It’s been a rough stretch for Reyes, who was finished by Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz in back-to-back fights after a near-victory against Jon Jones in February 2020. He’ll look to right the ship against Spann, who missed weight by half a pound but has been victorious in six of eight promotional appearances. Marc Goddard gets the call to oversee the light heavyweight clash. Reyes with a front kick down the middle, and Spann misses a high kick. A right hand from Spann makes Reyes stumble, and Reyes answers. Reyes slips during an ensuing exchange and Spann latches onto a guillotine. He relents and they’re back at range. Spann counters a kick with a 1-2 combination and Reyes attempts to answer.
As he steps in, a short left hand from “Superman” — along with a glancing right — lays Reyes out stiff on the canvas. He dives in and lands one unnecessary blow before Goddard dives in to save Reyes.
Spann has his second straight first-round finish in the Octagon. Reyes’ struggles continue, as he loses his fourth straight.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Dominick Reyes via KO (Punches) R1 1:20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a pick for this fight. He notes that Reyes is a former title challenger with suspect chin coming off two KO losses, while Spann is a powerful but slow striker. He says the odds favor Reyes at 2-1 but calls it a coin toss and advises against betting at those odds. He will wait for weigh-ins and a Tuesday breakdown before deciding.

"I'm gonna hold off on a pick here watch our Tuesday night breakdown maybe I'm more confident then"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Big Brady picks Dominick Reyes to win by first-round knockout, but expresses low trust due to Reyes' recent performances and mental state. He notes Reyes has looked awful since the Jon Jones fight, being hesitant and getting knocked out by Jan Blachowicz. However, he believes Reyes is the much better striker with phenomenal takedown defense, and that Spann has been dropped by lesser fighters (Sam Alvey, Anthony Smith). He says if Reyes loses this, it's inexcusable.

Reyes by KO in round 1; not recommended for betting
"give me Dominic Reyes give me Dominic Reyes by knockout in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

Cody picks Ryan Spann as an underdog, citing narrative and speculation. He notes that Reyes' wins came against opponents who were past their prime or at a weight disadvantage, and that Reyes has lost three straight, including two knockouts. Cody points out that Reyes has been inactive for a year and a half and may have ring rust, while Spann is younger, active, and improving. He thinks Spann's power and reach could capitalize on Reyes' potential durability and confidence issues.

"I know this one's probably a bad call but I'll I'm spamming Underdog and I think on Ryan's fan... I just think on a card that I again agree with a lot of the favorites I feel like there's maybe …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Connor picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that despite Reyes' recent losses, Spann's messy style and lack of discipline play into Reyes' counter-punching strengths. He notes that Spann's entries are wild and he often leaves openings, while Reyes is a cool, technical counter puncher. Connor believes Spann is not capable of making Reyes as uncomfortable as Prochazka did, and that Reyes should be able to take him apart.

"Dominic Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Daniel Levi picks Dominick Reyes to knock out Ryan Spann, citing Reyes' superior distance game, straight left, and composure. He notes that Spann has been knocked out three times the same way (on takedown attempts) and has a questionable chin. Levi believes Reyes is on a different level and that Spann's mental fragility and tendency to get wild will be his downfall. He also mentions that Reyes has taken a year off and changed camps, which should help him refocus.

Predicts a knockout win for Reyes; odds mentioned: Reyes -225, Spann +190 at DraftKings
"I think Dominic Reyes gets back on track like the guys that have been beating Reyes are all Champions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

The host sees Reyes as the better technical striker with good range and a clean left hand. He is concerned about the layoff and durability questions after recent KO losses, but believes Reyes can take his time and finish Spann in the latter half. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at -120 as Reyes may be cautious early. He won't bet the moneyline at -225 but picks Reyes by KO.

over 1.5 rounds (-120)
"I do lean Reyes here I just can't get past or behind that minus 225 line considering his layoff"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Paul picks Dominick Reyes, arguing that if the fight extends, Reyes will lap Spann in volume. He notes that Spann's decision wins are uninspiring (e.g., split decision over Sam Alvey) and that he has been knocked out by Johnny Walker. Paul believes Reyes' losses are to elite competition (Jones, Blachowicz, Prochazka) and that Spann hasn't fought anyone of that caliber. He thinks Reyes' volume and experience will be decisive.

"I'm gonna pick Dominic Reyes here I just think uh if this fight does get extended which a lot of spam fights do not Reyes should absolutely like lap lap em in uh in volume."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ryan Spann

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Ryan Spann, expressing concern about Reyes' motivation and damage taken after the Jones fight and long layoff. He thinks Reyes may shell up under power and predicts Spann will rock him and secure a guillotine choke. He acknowledges Spann's glass chin but believes his bursts will be enough.

guillotine choke
"I think I'm gonna go over Ryan's bam"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dominick Reyes

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Reyes. He notes that Spann is a dangerous but fundamentally limited fighter who relies on chaos, while Reyes has a thin but effective counter-punching game. Zane points out that Spann's wild entries and lack of durability make him vulnerable to Reyes' counters, and that Reyes' losses came against elite fighters who could exploit his weaknesses in ways Spann cannot.

"Unless the bond gets really lucky early, uh, Reyes should be able to take him apart at the seams."
Misha Cirkunov - Fight History
KO (punches) R1 1:28 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alonzo Menifield 0 5 of 8 62% 6 of 9 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alonzo Menifield 0 5 of 8 62% 6 of 9 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alonzo Menifield 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 1 of 2 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alonzo Menifield 5 of 8 62% 2 of 5 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 8 of 17 47% 6 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 1 of 2 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Misha Cirkunov vs. Alonzo Menifield
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Menifield (-200), Cirkunov (+170)

Round 1
If this light heavyweight main card opener goes the distance, it would be quite a surprise for bettors – the line that the fight ends inside the distance is a hefty -400 or so – as well as both finish-friendly competitors. Cirkunov (15-8, 6-6 UFC) will look to put an end to a three-fight skid as he moves up in weight against “Atomic Alonzo” Menifield (12-3, 5-3 UFC) and his 92% stoppage rate. Referee Mark Smith knows he may need to intervene at a moment’s notice, and he steels himself while the two men touch gloves before his eyes. Cirkunov throws a low kick, and Menifield walks him down and slings haymakers. Cirkunov attempts to defend with a possible takedown entry, but the wildness of the exchange has them wobble back. They wind up at the same time and connect with punches, and Menifield blinks his right eye out from possible damage he absorbed. Menifield throws with all his might, and Cirkunov barely ducks it and tries a tie-up for a takedown. Cirkunov again looks for a clinch to a trip, and Menifield shoves him away. As they break apart, a stream of blood trickles out of the corner of Cirkunov’s left eye.
Menifield charges like a bull, and he clips his man with a booming left hook. Cirkunov spins all the way around from the blow that landed flush on his ear, and he falls to the mat. As he goes down, “Atomic Alonzo” detonates bombs that put Cirkunov completely out. Cirkunov is communing with the ancestors as Menifield slams a few additional punches down in a Hulk-like rage, doing so until Smith dives on top to sacrifice his own body to save Cirkunov, because the fight is well and truly over.
It takes quite some time for Cirkunov to regain consciousness, but he does so, and the whole of the Apex including Menifield applaud this. With that blistering knockout that materialized before the 90-second mark, Menifield’s stellar finish rate is even greater now.

The Official Result
Alonzo Menifield def. Misha Cirkunov R1 1:28 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Angelo picks Alonzo Menifield, noting his power, takedown defense (83%), and improved cardio. He compares the fight to Johnny Walker vs. Jan Kuntalaba, where the grappler is dangerous but has only one win since 2019. Menifield can win by KO or decision, while Cirkunov likely needs a takedown to win, which may be difficult.

"I'm gonna pick menifield here because he can win by knockout he can probably win a decision and Misha can really only win if he gets the takedown"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov as a dog to win by first-round submission. He acknowledges Menifield's power and Cirkunov's weak chin, but believes Cirkunov's grappling is elite and that if he gets a takedown, he will finish Menifield quickly. He notes Menifield's ground game is unproven against high-level grapplers. He calls it a striker vs. grappler matchup and sides with the grappler.

Cirkunov wins by submission, first round
"I'm gonna side with a dog here in circanov to pull off the upset"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Cody picks Menifield by knockout, but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Menifield has power but is a one-round fighter with cardio issues. He thinks Menifield lands a bomb early, but if the fight goes to the ground, Cirkunov has a submission advantage. He wants to see weigh-ins before betting.

Menifield under 35.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I feel like eventually menfield lands a bomb here and puts uh Misha out of his misery but it's a fight that I really want to see the weigh-ins."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Connor also picks Menifield, agreeing that Cirkunov is broken and cannot be trusted. He notes that Menifield can be convinced to quit if hurt, but Cirkunov lacks the dedication to his striking to hurt him. Cirkunov's return to light heavyweight after failing at middleweight only worsens his confidence.

"Gotta take Mena field here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Cirkunov is the more skilled fighter overall, with superior jiu-jitsu and good enough wrestling. His main vulnerability is Menifield's early power, but if he survives the first round, the fight shifts in his favor. Cirkunov is moving back to light heavyweight, which should improve his durability and cardio. The host likes Cirkunov by submission inside the distance or on the moneyline at +180.

Misha Cirkunov inside the distance +240
"I like Misha here as an underdog I really think that this is a spot where uh you know we just have to worry about that early power if you can get past that early power it should be smooth …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Paul leans towards Cirkunov as a dog or passes. He notes Cirkunov has a legitimate path to victory via takedowns and submissions, as Menifield has never faced a pure jiu-jitsu guy. He questions Menifield's cardio and chin, and thinks Cirkunov could control him against the cage or submit him. He mentions Cirkunov by submission at +400.

Misha Cirkunov by submission +400
"Why not be a dog or pacify name the show... Misha does have a legit path of Victory and I think menifield's just not all that good."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

The MMA Guru picks Alonzo Menifield by first-round KO, stating that Misha Cirkunov is done as a fighter. He notes Cirkunov's brain issues, lack of takedowns, and uncertainty about his weight class. He believes Menifield's power and underrated grappling defense will lead to a finish, though he doubts Menifield will ever be a top contender due to age.

prediction: first-round KO
"I'm gonna go over on Lonzo many field first round KO against Amisha sirkanov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alonzo Menifield

Zane picks Menifield, stating he has to pick him because he cannot trust Cirkunov anymore. He notes Cirkunov's visible discomfort and PTSD-like reactions in fights, making him tense and slow. Menifield, while not a great striker, is durable and will be there in the second round, whereas Cirkunov's confidence is shattered.

"I have to pick Alonzo Manafield. How could I possibly ever trust Misha Surkinov again?"
Submission (armbar) R2 1:29 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Wellington Turman 0 30 of 44 68% 50 of 64 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Misha Cirkunov 0 15 of 19 78% 24 of 28 0 of 3 0% 2 0 2:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Wellington Turman 0 23 of 34 67% 33 of 44 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:06
Misha Cirkunov 0 4 of 6 66% 8 of 10 0 of 3 0% 1 0 2:15
2 Wellington Turman 0 7 of 10 70% 17 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:58
Misha Cirkunov 0 11 of 13 84% 16 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Wellington Turman 30 of 44 68% 20 of 33 9 of 10 1 of 1 8 of 16 2 of 2 20 of 26
Misha Cirkunov 15 of 19 78% 8 of 12 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 12 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Wellington Turman 23 of 34 67% 17 of 27 5 of 6 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 26
Misha Cirkunov 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Wellington Turman 7 of 10 70% 3 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 11 of 13 84% 5 of 7 6 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 6 7 of 7 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov to win, likely by first-round TKO. He notes Cirkunov is much bigger with a five-inch reach advantage and has very good wrestling and grappling, having submitted legit light heavyweights. He criticizes Turman's striking defense and negative strike differential, and points out that Turman was outgrappled by Carl Roberson. Brady believes Cirkunov can win on the feet or on the mat, and sees Turman's path to victory as unlikely.

Cirkunov by first-round TKO
"I like circanov here and i like him quite a bit um i just don't like tournament in this matchup"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Cody picks Turman as an underdog, citing his youth (25), better cardio, and training at Glover Teixeira's gym. He notes Cirkunov's poor striking, declining chin, and inability to get takedowns against Giaco. Cody believes Turman's volume and durability will pay off as Cirkunov fades, and he plans to live-bet Turman if Cirkunov doesn't finish early.

live bet Turman if Cirkunov doesn't finish round 1
"i got i got term on and if for whatever reason i'm i'm going to have a look at the live betting odds"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Daniel Levi picks Wellington Turman to edge out a decision. He questions Misha Cirkunov's heart and notes he has folded in tough fights. Levi believes Turman is hungrier and more confident after his last win, and that Cirkunov's best days are behind him. He warns that Turman must avoid getting finished early but expects him to pull away down the stretch.

"give me wellington tournament to come out here and just pull away down the stretch as long as he doesn't get finished in the early going"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

The host leans with Cirkunov, believing he will be stronger and craftier in grappling exchanges. He expects Cirkunov to land takedowns and assert top position, eventually finding a finish via submission or ground and pound. He notes both fighters have durability and fight IQ issues but favors Cirkunov's jiu-jitsu from the top. His favorite play is 'fight doesn't go to decision' at -190.

fight doesn't go to decision (-190)
"i do lean with serkanov and i do agree that he should be the slight favorite in this spot which is why i'll take him to win and i'm gonna take him to win this fight via you know let's …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Paul leans toward Turman as an underdog, noting both fighters are chinny but Turman has better volume and striking. He parlayed the over 1.5 rounds in this fight with Gegard Mousasi at +128. Paul sees this as a competitive fight that could go either way, but Turman's cardio and youth give him an edge.

over 1.5 rounds parlayed with Mousasi at +128
"i actually did parlay with uh mousasi on the bellator card i parlayed the over one and a half in this with mousasi"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

The MMA Guru picks Misha Cirkunov to win by arm-triangle submission in the second round. He believes Cirkunov's size, physicality, and strong grappling will be too much for Wellington Turman, who has been taken down and finished by lesser grapplers. He notes that Turman has been KO'd multiple times and that Cirkunov's experience and strength will tip the grappling exchanges in his favor. The Guru expects a close fight on the feet but sees Cirkunov securing dominant positions and finishing with an arm triangle.

second round arm-triangle submission
"i'm going to go over like a misha circle of arm triangle submission in round two"
LOSS vs Krzysztof Jotko
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Krzysztof Jotko 0 41 of 91 45% 55 of 106 5 of 17 29% 0 0 4:06
Misha Cirkunov 0 41 of 95 43% 56 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Krzysztof Jotko 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 35 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:09
Misha Cirkunov 0 8 of 21 38% 12 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
2 Krzysztof Jotko 0 14 of 38 36% 18 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:51
Misha Cirkunov 0 17 of 32 53% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Krzysztof Jotko 0 14 of 26 53% 16 of 29 5 of 10 50% 0 0 2:06
Misha Cirkunov 0 16 of 42 38% 25 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Krzysztof Jotko 41 of 91 45% 13 of 59 10 of 13 18 of 19 28 of 76 6 of 8 7 of 7
Misha Cirkunov 41 of 95 43% 23 of 76 6 of 7 12 of 12 37 of 89 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Krzysztof Jotko 13 of 27 48% 6 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 5 11 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 8 of 21 38% 2 of 14 0 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Krzysztof Jotko 14 of 38 36% 4 of 24 5 of 8 5 of 6 10 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 17 of 32 53% 9 of 24 4 of 4 4 of 4 16 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Krzysztof Jotko 14 of 26 53% 3 of 15 3 of 3 8 of 8 7 of 18 0 of 1 7 of 7
Misha Cirkunov 16 of 42 38% 12 of 38 2 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Angelo picks Misha Cirkunov, believing he will eventually get a takedown and dominate on the ground. He notes that Cirkunov is a very good grappler with big shots and well-timed takedowns, while Jotko is a fast, athletic striker with 87% takedown defense. However, Angelo thinks Jotko's takedown defense will be tested and that once on the mat, Cirkunov has a huge advantage. He likes Cirkunov in DraftKings at $7,600 and may place a moneyline bet. He also likes the more more monkey knife fight pick.

more more monkey knife fight, considering moneyline bet and wins inside the distance decision no action
"misha is my pick i think he will eventually get a takedown i think he'll get those big shots in he'll crowd jotco"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov to win by first-round submission, liking him as a dog. He notes Cirkunov is coming down from light heavyweight and will be the bigger fighter, with dangerous submission skills. Jotko has only one KO win in eight UFC years and has been submitted before. Cirkunov has fought much better competition (Glover Teixeira, Johnny Walker, Ryan Spann) and though he gets knocked out when he loses, Jotko is not a power puncher. Brady thinks one takedown is all it takes for Cirkunov to finish Jotko on the ground.

Cirkunov by submission, round 1
"i'm going to go circling off here and let's go for circuna by submission round one submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Krzysztof Jotko

Cody picks Jotko, citing Cirkunov's poor chin and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Cirkunov is dropping to 185 for the first time, which could be a difficult weight cut. Jotko has good cardio and volume, and if he survives the first round, he should take over. He also mentions that Jotko's grappling has improved and that Cirkunov is a one-round fighter.

Under 1.5 rounds at +125
"i will take jocko straight up but i will keep an eye on that live betting market as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Krzysztof Jotko

Daniel Levi picks Krzysztof Jotko, citing Cirkunov's tendency to fold when adversity hits, while Jotko is durable and has never quit. He notes Cirkunov's dangerous submissions but questions his chin and heart, especially at middleweight after cutting weight. Levi thinks Jotko can outpoint him or possibly knock him out, but he is not fully confident due to Cirkunov's early burst potential.

"if you can make it to a point where you can test his heart test his will to fight ... then i got to go with chris jocko"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

I think Cirkunov is the better fighter everywhere. Jotko is a point fighter with no finishing ability, while Cirkunov has excellent jiu-jitsu and decent striking. The only concern is Cirkunov's chin at 185, but Jotko doesn't hit hard. I like Cirkunov by submission at +300 or by decision at +550.

Cirkunov by submission +300, Cirkunov by decision +550
"I like misha sirkinoff in the spot as an underdog to be honest"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Paul leans towards Cirkunov as a dog, but wants to see the weigh-ins first. He notes that Jotko is not a power puncher and that Cirkunov has good grappling and strength. However, he is concerned about Cirkunov's chin and cardio. He suggests that if Cirkunov makes weight comfortably, he could be a live dog.

Under 1.5 rounds at +125
"i'm leaning towards a dogger pass here because i think jocko's more of a point fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Krzysztof Jotko

The MMA Guru picks Krzysztof Jotko, citing Misha Cirkunov's poor decision-making and chin issues after moving down 20 pounds. Jotko has good grappling defense and stand-up. He predicts Jotko will stuff takedowns and get a second-round TKO against the cage.

Jotko by TKO in round 2
"i'm going with jotco here over misha sirkanov i just don't trust miesha circanov in this fight"
LOSS vs Ryan Spann
TKO (punches) R1 1:11 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ryan Spann 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ryan Spann 0 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 16 of 29 55% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ryan Spann 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ryan Spann 5 of 18 27% 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 16 of 29 55% 14 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 12 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann

Round 1
The co-headliner brings what should be terrific amount of violence and intensity as two finishers in Cirkunov (15-5, 6-3 UFC) and Spann (18-6, 4-1 UFC) throw down. Referee Mark Smith will need to keep his head on a swivel, as these two light heavyweights combine for 28 finishes in their 33 total victories. There is no glove touch, as it’s on. Spann wades forward to throw bombs, and Cirkunov fires off a head kick as a response. Spann walks forward into a right hand, and he scores with a punch but gets kicked in the groin. Spann only needs 30 seconds to recover, and when he marches forward to attack, Cirkunov gets his attention with a right hand. Spann smashes Cirkunov with a massive right hand that sends Cirkunov crashing to the canvas, and Spann drops down with a few shots before wise coach Sayif Saud implores Spann to not play in his foe’s guard. Spann lets Cirkunov stand up, and he lands a few shots before setting up a left hand.
The punch from “Superman,” while not a superman punch per se, is powerful enough to take Cirkunov’s legs out beneath him. This time, Spann smells blood and wants to end things. The Fortis MMA star leaps down to start pounding on his opponent with hammerfists, and he continues slamming them into Cirkunov’s head until Smith has seen enough and halts the fight.
Spann did not need long to notch an emphatic victory, and he made a statement by putting away a fellow top-15 opponent that quickly.

The Official Result
Ryan Spann def. Misha Cirkunov R1 1:11 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov, citing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (60%) and Cirkunov averages 4.42 takedowns per 15 minutes with 57% accuracy. He expects Cirkunov to get an early takedown and submit Spann in the first round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds as a bet. He wants to see weigh-ins due to Cirkunov's injury history.

Cirkunov by submission, round 1; under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Cirkunov to win by first round submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann as a dog, calling it a coin flip. He notes Spann's suspect chin and tendency to get knocked out on takedown attempts, but believes Misha Cirkunov is stiff and predictable. He thinks Spann's speed and power will catch Cirkunov, who has shown no ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but prefers the plus money.

"Since i think this is a coin flip fight i'll go with the dog i'll go with ryan spann here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Lock leans Cirkunov but has concerns about his chin durability, especially after the Johnny Walker knockout. He notes Spann has solid knockout power, which gives him pause. Lock thinks Cirkunov should be able to get the fight to the ground and work from there, possibly securing a submission. However, he's not sure if he'd bet at -145, indicating hesitation.

"i do lean circuit off there i remember seeing his odds at minus 145 not 100 sure if i'd be willing to park ways with my money at that point"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

The Guru is confident in Misha Cirkunov, calling Ryan Spann 'mediocre' and criticizing his recent performances, including a KO loss to Johnny Walker. He believes Spann will be hesitant coming off that loss, allowing Cirkunov to take center and secure takedowns. He predicts Cirkunov will win by submission in the first round, specifically an arm triangle choke. He notes that Spann has been taken down by lesser grapplers and Cirkunov will capitalize.

submission in round 1, arm triangle choke
"i'm gonna go with misha sirkinov getting the job done by first round submission i'll call this submission as well i'll go with arm triangle choke"
WIN vs Jimmy Crute
Submission (peruvian necktie) R1 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · Sep 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Misha Cirkunov 0 6 of 10 60% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 1 2 2:28
Jimmy Crute 0 21 of 35 60% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Misha Cirkunov 0 6 of 10 60% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 1 2 2:28
Jimmy Crute 0 21 of 35 60% 28 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Misha Cirkunov 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 4
Jimmy Crute 21 of 35 60% 19 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 5 15 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Misha Cirkunov 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 4
Jimmy Crute 21 of 35 60% 19 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 4 of 5 15 of 27
LOSS vs Johnny Walker
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 0:36 · UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Mar 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Johnny Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Johnny Walker 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Misha Cirkunov 1 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Johnny Walker 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Johnny Walker 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Misha Cirkunov 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:40 · UFC Fight Night: Volkan vs. Smith · Oct 27, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Misha Cirkunov 0 11 of 18 61% 65 of 72 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:40
Patrick Cummins 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Misha Cirkunov 0 11 of 18 61% 65 of 72 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:40
Patrick Cummins 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Misha Cirkunov 11 of 18 61% 2 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 5 9 of 12 1 of 1
Patrick Cummins 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Misha Cirkunov 11 of 18 61% 2 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 5 9 of 12 1 of 1
Patrick Cummins 3 of 5 60% 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Glover Teixeira
TKO (punches) R1 2:45 · UFC on Fox: Lawler vs. dos Anjos · Dec 16, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Glover Teixeira 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Misha Cirkunov 0 21 of 43 48% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Glover Teixeira 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 22 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:44
Misha Cirkunov 0 21 of 43 48% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Glover Teixeira 13 of 21 61% 12 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Misha Cirkunov 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 34 7 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Glover Teixeira 13 of 21 61% 12 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 11
Misha Cirkunov 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 34 7 of 9 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Big Brady picks Misha Cirkunov, citing his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Spann has poor takedown defense (60%) and Cirkunov averages 4.42 takedowns per 15 minutes with 57% accuracy. He expects Cirkunov to get an early takedown and submit Spann in the first round. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds as a bet. He wants to see weigh-ins due to Cirkunov's injury history.

Cirkunov by submission, round 1; under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Cirkunov to win by first round submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ryan Spann

Daniel Levi picks Ryan Spann as a dog, calling it a coin flip. He notes Spann's suspect chin and tendency to get knocked out on takedown attempts, but believes Misha Cirkunov is stiff and predictable. He thinks Spann's speed and power will catch Cirkunov, who has shown no ability to come back from adversity. He acknowledges Spann's inconsistency but prefers the plus money.

"Since i think this is a coin flip fight i'll go with the dog i'll go with ryan spann here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

Lock leans Cirkunov but has concerns about his chin durability, especially after the Johnny Walker knockout. He notes Spann has solid knockout power, which gives him pause. Lock thinks Cirkunov should be able to get the fight to the ground and work from there, possibly securing a submission. However, he's not sure if he'd bet at -145, indicating hesitation.

"i do lean circuit off there i remember seeing his odds at minus 145 not 100 sure if i'd be willing to park ways with my money at that point"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Misha Cirkunov

The Guru is confident in Misha Cirkunov, calling Ryan Spann 'mediocre' and criticizing his recent performances, including a KO loss to Johnny Walker. He believes Spann will be hesitant coming off that loss, allowing Cirkunov to take center and secure takedowns. He predicts Cirkunov will win by submission in the first round, specifically an arm triangle choke. He notes that Spann has been taken down by lesser grapplers and Cirkunov will capitalize.

submission in round 1, arm triangle choke
"i'm gonna go with misha sirkinov getting the job done by first round submission i'll call this submission as well i'll go with arm triangle choke"