Matthew Semelsberger

Angelo picks Charles Radtke because he believes Radtke will land the better shots and get takedowns. He notes Radtke is an athletic grappler with power, while Semelsberger is an aggressive striker with poor takedown defense (45%). He thinks Semelsberger's toughness will keep him in the fight but doesn't see him winning. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds line if available, as both are tough.

Big Brady likes Radtke's multiple paths to victory: power on the feet and a clear grappling advantage. He criticizes Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and low volume, noting that Radtke is a BJJ black belt with submission wins. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody sees this as a coin flip but leans Radtke due to Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and recent losses. He notes Radtke's smart game plan against Blood Diamond and his clinch work. Cody expects Radtke to neutralize Semelsberger's striking with wrestling and cage control.

Connor picks Radtke, citing Semelsberger's broken confidence and inability to deal with Radtke's lead left hook. He notes Semelsberger has been second-guessing himself and overthinking, while Radtke has a simple one-punch game. Connor thinks Semelsberger will just eat the left hook or try to avoid it without a clear answer.

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Matthew Semelsberger as a dog, citing his knockdown power and experience. He worries about Semelsberger's mental toughness and tendency to let opponents back into fights, but believes Charles Radtke is still green and not worth laying a price on. Vreeland notes Semelsberger has won as a dog before.

Radtke is expected to do enough in the striking to get his offense off, then take the fight to the ground where he can find a finish in the first or second round.

Paul agrees, citing Semelsberger's declining durability and takedown defense. He worries about Radtke's size disadvantage but thinks Radtke's wrestling and left hook can get the job done. Paul plans to include Radtke in parlays.

The Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and ability to beat Jake Matthews. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Mike Malott and believes Semelsberger will finally get a TKO finish without fumbling. He notes Semelsberger is on a three-fight losing streak and has his back against the wall.

Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.

Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.

Angelo picks Semelsberger because he believes Semelsberger has enough chin to weather Medić's striking and can then work in his grappling advantage. He notes that Semelsberger has solid leg kicks, body work, and power, but can be sloppy. He trusts Semelsberger to close the gap and drag the fight into later rounds, where his grappling should take over. He already placed a half-unit bet at -150.

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He argues that Semelsberger has more paths to victory: better durability, cardio, wrestling, and grappling, plus massive power (nine knockdowns in eight fights). He expects Medić, coming up in weight on short notice at elevation, to fade after an early onslaught, and Semelsberger's chin will hold up to finish him.

Cody picks Semelsberger but is hesitant at -200. He notes Medić's power and early finishing ability but questions his cardio. Semelsberger has good volume and takedown defense issues but can survive early onslaughts. He suggests a live bet on Semelsberger if he survives the first round.

James believes Medić is a cleaner striker with better timing and technique, while Semelsberger has more power but an elite chin that may eventually crack. He notes the line has moved heavily toward Semelsberger, creating value on Medić as an underdog. He thinks the fight is fairly even and that Medić's striking prowess gives him the edge.

Semelsberger has more knockdowns than fights and his forward pressure and power punching will be too much for Medić. Medić is a glass cannon with a hand injury history and doesn't have the grappling to exploit Semelsberger's weakness. Semelsberger will land a big punch and knock him out. Fight doesn't go to decision is a great play.

Angelo picks Jeremiah Wells, citing his power, technical striking, and BJJ black belt. He thinks Wells should be more technically sound on the feet and have better BJJ than Semelsberger. He notes that Semelsberger is tough and has made fools of bettors before, so he is not betting despite seeing value at -135. He is concerned about Wells' wrestling defense against Semelsberger's pressure.

Big Brady picks Jeremiah Wells to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Wells has a ton of power and a very good grappling game, and he mixes in takedowns well. Brady is concerned about Wells's cardio if the fight extends, but he believes Wells will finish Semelsberger early. He also mentions that this could be a good live betting spot if Semelsberger survives the first round, but he expects Wells to get him out of there early.

Cody picks Semelsberger, emphasizing his cardio and ability to go 15 minutes, while Wells is a first-round finisher with suspect gas tank. He notes Semelsberger's takedown defense and striking are good, and he has shown improvement. Cody believes if Semelsberger survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late finish. He sees a live betting opportunity to get a better price on Semelsberger after the first round.

Connor picks Semelsberger, noting that he is working hard to overcome his anxiety against punchers. He points out that Semelsberger's approach against Jake Matthews was more assertive and that he has the durability to survive Wells's power. He thinks Semelsberger can take the fight to Wells and wilt him, but admits it's not a smart pick.

Jeremiah Wells has first-round finishing power but fades in later rounds. Matthew Semelsberger is younger, has knockout power of his own, and a better gas tank. Semelsberger can keep distance, stuff takedowns, and take over as Wells slows down. The fight likely ends in a finish, with Semelsberger coming on late to win by TKO. However, Wells could land early, making this a sketchy pick.

Paul picks Wells but is hesitant, acknowledging the points Cody made about cardio. He notes Wells is more explosive and dangerous than AJ Fletcher, who had success against Semelsberger. Paul thinks the price is more accurate now and is not sure he will bet it. He agrees the longer the fight goes, the worse it is for Wells.

The MMA Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog. He notes Semelsberger's underrated chin and grappling, and his reach advantage. He thinks Semelsberger's straight punches will counter Wells' looping shots. He cites Semelsberger's competitive fight with Chaos Williams and his performance against Jake Matthews. He predicts a KO in the first round.

Angelo loves Jake Matthews in this spot, citing that Semelsberger was taken down four times by AJ Fletcher on short notice and was out-volumed by Alex Morono. He believes Matthews will out-volume Semelsberger on the feet and take him down for control. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power keeps him live but prefers Matthews.

Big Brady picks Jake Matthews, emphasizing that Matthews has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes Semelsberger has a big hole in his takedown defense and has been submitted before. If Matthews wrestles, he should have success and can find a submission. However, if Matthews strikes, it could be close and he might get knocked out. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Matthews, emphasizing his well-rounded game and development. He notes Semelsberger is big but not elite, and Matthews can win by wrestling or striking. He considers Matthews inside the distance but acknowledges Matthews has many decisions. He will play Matthews straight up.

Connor picks Matthews, citing his improved timing and switch-ups, plus the wrestling threat. He thinks Semelsberger is still growing and needs more technique to feel confident. He notes Semelsberger can get shook early but Matthews should be able to delay his confidence.

Paul picks Matthews, noting he is coming into his own and looked great against Fialho. He thinks Matthews has a path to wrestling and can also win at range. He hates the price but believes it's about right. He is not sure if he will bet it because the line is accurate.

The MMA Guru picks Jake Matthews over Matthew Semelsberger, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Matthews has hit a different level in his career, with crisp hands and improved boxing, as seen against Andre Fialho. He notes Matthews' underrated wins, including over Li Jingliang, and thinks he will box up Semelsberger for a 30-27 decision. He considers Semelsberger bottom-of-the-barrel, only beating lower-level opponents, and expects Matthews to mix in grappling if needed.

Big Brady picks Alex Morono to win by decision. He favors Morono's volume and durability over Semelsberger's power. He notes Morono is a black belt in BJJ but rarely uses takedowns, so he expects a striking match. He is concerned about Semelsberger's power but thinks Morono's cardio and output will win rounds.

Cody picks Morono as a dog, citing his higher level of competition, wins over Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis, and a three-fight winning streak. He notes that Morono is local to Texas, has his own gym, and will be a fan favorite. He thinks both fighters will scrap toe-to-toe, but Morono's boxing and volume will earn him the win, possibly via decision. He also mentions that Semelsberger has regressed and is not elite.

Daniel admits he is terrible at picking Morono fights. He sees Semelsberger as more athletic, bigger, and with a power edge. He notes Morono's experience and durability, but also his tendency to fatigue and his questionable chin. He thinks it will be a close three-round fight and slightly leans Semelsberger, but calls it a dog or pass situation and does not bet.

Preet bet Morono at +136, expecting his high output and forward pressure to overwhelm Semelsberger. He notes Morono's durability (only two KOs in career) and his ability to bank rounds with volume. He thinks Semelsberger may snipe him but believes Morono's style is difficult to deal with and that the Texas crowd will support him.

Paul also picks Morono, agreeing it's a dog or pass situation. He notes that he's never been a Semelsberger truther and that Semelsberger had a close fight against UFC debutant AJ Fletcher. He thinks Morono's volume and experience will be key, and that the fight will likely go to decision with Morono getting his hand raised.

Angelo picks Semelsberger, noting his aggressive striking and leg kicks. He points out that Sano hasn't fought in five years and is not UFC caliber, calling the fight a 'favor to Nick Diaz.' Angelo expects Semelsberger to win easily, though he won't bet the moneyline at -400.

Big Brady picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He is very low on Martin Sano Jr., citing a 4.5-year layoff, poor takedown defense, bad cardio, and unimpressive striking. He believes Semelsberger should dominate, though he acknowledges some uncertainty due to Sano's long layoff.

Cody is confident Semelsberger wins, citing his size, strength, and wrestling. He notes Sano hasn't won a fight in years, has poor wrestling, and is only on the card due to his connection to Nick Diaz. He expects Semelsberger to dominate but warns against the heavy price.

Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger, noting that he is the more physical fighter with better competition. He dismisses Martin Sano's win over Jeff Neal as occurring when Neal was green. Levi expects Semelsberger to win, likely by knockout, and mentions the line opened at -160 but moved to -500, which he finds interesting but still favors Semelsberger.

Jacob agrees Semelsberger will win, but he's interested in how Sano looks after the layoff. He notes that if Sano looks sharp, it could indicate Nick Diaz is also well-prepared. Jacob picks Semelsberger but will watch Sano's performance for future bets on Diaz.

The host picks Matthew Semelsberger to win by KO, specifically in the second round. He believes Semelsberger is the much better fighter and can win any way he wants unless he gets knocked out early. He notes Semelsberger's power and durability, referencing his ability to withstand damage from Chaos Williams. He thinks Sano is a brawler with a KO-or-bust style and will be in trouble if he doesn't finish early.

Paul picks Semelsberger, noting Sano's long layoff and lack of wins. He thinks Semelsberger is the clear favorite but the price is too high to bet. He expects Semelsberger to win but won't bet at -490.

Angelo picks Khaos Williams, citing his power and knockout ability. He notes that Semelsberger has been knocked out before and that Khaos has fought higher quality opponents. He disagrees with Jacob's pick of Semelsberger, arguing that Semelsberger's forward pressure may walk him into a power shot. Angelo also mentions he is waiting for better odds on a Khaos Williams knockout prop.

Big Brady favors Williams due to higher level of competition (fought Alex Morono, Abdul Razak Alhassan) and durability (never finished). He notes Semelsberger has been knocked out by an 0-1 fighter and has two losses by finish. He predicts a first-round knockout by Williams.

Cody picks Semelsberger as a live underdog, citing his better output, size, and wrestling. He notes Williams' power but questions his overall game and cardio. Cody suggests Semelsberger could win if he survives the first round and pressures Williams.

Daniel Levi picks Khaos Williams, disagreeing with the notion that he is a first-round-or-bust fighter. He points to Williams' decision win over Jeremy Holloway and competitive fight against Michel Pereira as evidence he can go three rounds. He thinks Williams can match Semelsberger in power and physicality, but has more experience. He expects a win by knockout or decision.

Jacob picks Matthew Semelsberger, emphasizing his volume and kicks to neutralize Khaos Williams' power. He believes Semelsberger can overwhelm Khaos with pressure and leg kicks. Jacob also thinks this could be fight of the night and likes the over on strikes for Semelsberger.

The host picks Matthew Semelsberger, citing his good combinations, leg kicks, and ability to stick and move. He notes Semelsberger's takedown threat and that Khaos Williams loads up on shots, making him telegraph. He believes Semelsberger can avoid Williams' power and win by decision, though he acknowledges Williams' knockout power is a threat. He mentions Semelsberger has been finished before but thinks improvements will keep him safe.

Paul picks Williams, citing his knockout power and fast hands. He notes Semelsberger's questionable chin and believes Williams will land a clean shot. Paul acknowledges Semelsberger's path to victory but thinks Williams' power is the difference.

Big Brady picks Jason Witt, citing Witt's superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Witt trains at Glory MMA with James Krause and expects a game plan focused on takedowns. He acknowledges Witt's poor chin but believes he can avoid getting knocked out by taking the fight to the mat. He predicts a submission win in the second round, similar to Witt's last fight against Cole Williams.

Daniel Levi picks Matthew Semelsberger because Jason Witt has a questionable chin and has been wobbled several times on the regional scene. He believes Semelsberger is strong enough to stuff takedowns and will eventually clip Witt. However, he notes Semelsberger's defensive wrestling is a concern, but Witt's chin is an even bigger liability. He expects the fight to go three rounds due to Semelsberger's greenness.

Lock favors Witt, citing his solid takedowns, good top control, and crushing top game. He downplays Semelsberger's win over Carlton Minus, calling Minus a low-tier fighter. Lock notes he hasn't seen much of Semelsberger's grappling and thinks Witt's wrestling could be the difference. He's cautious but leans Witt.

Big Brady picks the underdog Matthew Semelsberger to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Minus opened as a -365 favorite but has dropped to -125, which Brady finds insane. Semelsberger comes forward, lands more power shots, and has the power advantage. Minus sits back and picks shots from the outside. In the small cage, Semelsberger's pressure will be effective. Brady admits both are low level and he wouldn't be confident in either, but he likes Semelsberger's style.

Daniel Levi leans toward Carlton Minus via decision. He notes Minus is longer, pumps out the jab, and has more experience, while Semelsberger has power but is green and lacks wrestling. Levi cautions that Semelsberger hits like a truck and could make Minus hesitant, but expects Minus's volume to win two of three rounds if he doesn't get wobbled.

Minus has smoother stand-up and a better jab, as seen in his last fight. Semelsberger has power but questionable takedown defense and technical ability. Minus should outpoint Semelsberger over three rounds, possibly finishing late. The under 2.5 at +160 is also worth considering.