Rafa García

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, calling him the better overall fighter and more well-rounded. He notes Gordon is a good wrestler with high volume striking, tough and busy. He says he has seen Rafa Garcia get decisions that weren't his, and Jared Gordon not get decisions that should have been his. He is surprised to see Gordon as a 3-to-1 favorite. He suggests Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 as a possible bet.

Big Brady picks Gordon due to his pace, volume, and recent power. He worries about corrupt judges but expects Gordon to win a decision. He notes Garcia is tough and has only been knocked out by Grant Dawson, so a finish is unlikely.

Connor picks Jared Gordon, emphasizing Gordon's technical boxing and ability to impose his game plan. He notes that García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher shows he can be outworked, and Gordon is a more dangerous fighter than Gruetzemacher. Connor believes Gordon's pressure and sharper striking will overcome García's durability and lack of strategy.

Gordon is a big fan favorite and the host believes Garcia's lack of knockout threat allows Gordon to dictate the pace. He expects Gordon to stay on the gas, put Garcia against the cage, land takedowns, and win on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling him the most underrated lightweight on the roster. He argues Gordon's boxing is superior to Garcia's and that Garcia lacks power. He criticizes Garcia's wins as unimpressive and believes Gordon should be a bigger favorite. He predicts a dominant performance with a TKO in the late second round, possibly including a 10-8 round.

Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.

Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite disliking his fighting style. He notes that Dawson's wrestling and control are reliable, and that Rafa García tends to gas. Angelo acknowledges Dawson's knockout loss to Bobby Green but believes Dawson will win by grinding out a decision. He calls Dawson a reliable bettor's fighter.

Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by third-round submission. He considers Dawson a top-15 lightweight with top-10 upside, and believes he is on another level compared to Garcia. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, citing his submission of Jared Gordon and dominant win over Damir Ismagulov. He expects Dawson to get takedowns, wear on Garcia, and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. He thinks Garcia is solid but outmatched.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Garcia's game is subtractive but not potent enough to stop Dawson's relentless wrestling. He notes that Garcia's wins over wrestlers like Clay Guida are not indicative because Guida is washed. Connor believes Dawson's suffocating style will eventually get the takedown and control the fight.

Daniel admits he dislikes Dawson's style and believes his striking is elementary, but he respects Dawson's grappling and top control. He notes that Rafa García has decent takedown defense but thinks Dawson will likely grind out a boring decision. Daniel hopes García stuffs takedowns and wins, but his head says Dawson's wrestling will be the difference.

Dawson does not care to entertain but gets wins. He will do what he did to Joe Solecki last time. Garcia may stop the first couple takedowns, but Dawson's great gas tank will wear on Garcia, allowing Dawson to win a classic Dawson decision.

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing his phenomenal grappling and talent advantage over Rafa García, who he says has no finishing potential. He notes Dawson's suspect chin and poor stand-up but believes his grappling will easily outclass García. He also mentions Dawson's momentum coming off a win and training with Makhachev.

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

Angelo picks Rafa García, noting that Maheshate gets taken down easily and Rafa has 18 takedowns in his last four fights. He likes Rafa's chin and offensive grappling to get the job done. He mentions the line has flipped from Maheshate being favorite to near even money, and he has already placed a moneyline bet on Rafa for premium members.

Big Brady picks Rafa García but is very hesitant due to lack of information on Maheshate. He notes García's path to victory is takedowns, but his top control is poor and he has cardio issues. Maheshate has a size advantage and may have improved takedown defense. Brady says it's a tough fight to call and he's staying away from betting, but leans García by decision.

Cody picks Garcia, noting his grinding style and cardio improvements. He thinks Garcia will take Maheshate down and grind him out. He notes Maheshate is a slow starter and Garcia has a good chin. He expects a decision win for Garcia.

Connor picks Garcia, noting he is the well-rounded fighter and should win if he wrestles. He thinks Garcia is tough and can out-wrestle Maheshate, whose defensive wrestling is questionable. He acknowledges Garcia can lose random fights but expects him to win.

Paul picks Maheshate as an underdog, noting his size and striking skills. He is concerned about Garcia's takedowns but thinks Maheshate can land a big shot. He sees value at plus money and is willing to take a shot. He makes it a Shoei bet with Cody.

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García over Hayisaer Maheshate, going against the majority. He notes García's close fight with Jai Herbert and his submission win over Genesis Ronson. He questions Maheshate's competition and KO rate, pointing out that Maheshate took a decision against a 10-15 opponent. He expects García to pressure with a good chin and mix in grappling, potentially getting a late submission or decision win. He also mentions that Maheshate lost to a grappler in M1.

Big Brady picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision. He notes Garcia is on short notice and has cardio concerns, while Klose has fought much better competition. He expects the first round to be competitive but Klose's striking volume and takedown defense will carry him in later rounds. He mentions Garcia has never been knocked out, so a decision is likely.

Cody picks Klose, noting his technical striking, forward pressure, and solid takedown defense. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be a factor because Klose will stop takedowns and win the striking exchanges. He mentions that Klose's cardio is solid and that Garcia is limited and loopy with his strikes. He also notes that Klose's significant strikes over 60.5 is a good prop on PrizePicks.

Daniel picks Klose to win another close decision, noting that most of his fights are 29-28. He thinks Klose finds a way to edge out rounds, whether by calf kicks or a late takedown. He acknowledges Garcia's toughness and Mexican warrior spirit, but thinks Garcia's cardio issues (from the Gritzmacher fight) could be a factor. However, he calls the -205 price too high for a fighter who usually wins close fights, so he passes on betting.

Preet picks Klose by decision, expecting him to push Garcia against the cage, use leg kicks, and control the fight. He notes Klose's efficient style and that Garcia's cardio fades, leading to Klose taking over in the second and third rounds. He passes on the moneyline due to Klose's tendency to fight close decisions.

Paul picks Klose, citing his technical striking and good wrestling. He notes that Klose's losses are to very good fighters and that he looked great in his last fight against Brandon Jenkins. He thinks Garcia's wrestling won't be enough and that Klose will win the striking exchanges. He also mentions that Klose's takedown defense is solid and that Garcia is limited.

Angelo picks Rafa García confidently, calling it a clear pick. He notes that García has more power, better ground game, and is dangerous everywhere. He mentions that Jesse Ronson may be more technical but has chin issues, and García hits like a truck for the weight class. He is surprised García is only a slight favorite and plans to bet the moneyline at -120 before the line moves.

Big Brady slightly picks Jesse Ronson to win by close decision. He notes Ronson has better striking and cardio, while García has good wrestling but questionable cardio. He expects García to slow down as the fight goes on, allowing Ronson to take over late. He calls it a very close fight and says he won't bet on it.

Cody picks Ronson, citing his technical striking and experience. He notes Garcia's struggles at 155 and the weight jump to 170. He thinks Ronson's sharpness and durability will be key, and calls him a live underdog.

Daniel Levi has no clear pick, calling it a question of which version of Jesse Ronson shows up. If Ronson is the seasoned vet who has fought elite competition (Michel Prazeres, Kevin Lee) and is clean from his suspension, he picks Ronson. If Ronson is washed up, he picks Garcia. He notes Garcia is tough and gritty but has faced lower-level competition and was finished by Chris Gruetzemacher after gassing. Levi is uncertain and passes.

Paul leans towards Ronson after hearing Cody's analysis. He notes Ronson's technical striking and experience, and thinks Garcia may struggle moving up to 170. He plans to add Ronson to his card.

Angelo picks Rafa García despite cardio concerns, citing his experience, power, and takedown defense. He notes Natan Levy is a good grappler but inexperienced and gets into bad scrambles. He does not place a moneyline bet but likes a prop: Rafa García wins inside the distance with decision no action at -150, which refunds if Rafa loses a decision. He expects Rafa to threaten a finish early.

Big Brady picks Natan Levy but with low confidence, calling it his least confident pick on the card. He notes that Levy is undefeated and well-rounded with solid striking, wrestling, and grappling, but his competition has been weak. He acknowledges Rafa Garcia has fought much better opposition and is tough. He expects a close fight and predicts Levy by decision, but he has no bet on this fight.

Cody picks Garcia but is nervous due to Garcia's last performance where he gassed after a fast start against Chris Gruetzemacher. He believes that loss was an anomaly, as Gruetzemacher is a durable grinder, while Levy is not. He notes that Levy has fought mostly at featherweight and may be undersized at lightweight. Garcia should have advantages in size, experience, and striking. Cody hopes Garcia paces himself better this time.

Daniel Levi picks Rafa García despite acknowledging Natan Levy's talent. He notes that García is very tough and has displayed heart in previous fights, even in losses. He questions whether Levy can handle a rough, bloody fight, while García has proven he can. Levi believes García's experience and toughness give him the edge, but he is hesitant because Levy has a brighter future.

Lock leans Garcia because he has fought more proven competition and has heavy hands. He thinks Garcia will be the one completing takedowns and controlling Levy on top. He notes Levy has been in trouble before, nearly getting knocked out by Ben Lugo. Lock sees a decision win for Garcia at +175, but also likes the KO prop at +650.

Paul agrees with Garcia but is cautious. He notes that Garcia opened at +110 and money has come in on him, but the loss to Gruetzemacher was horrible. He thinks Garcia's size and experience should be enough against Levy, who has been off for a year and may not have fought top competition. Paul is not fully confident but leans Garcia.

Big Brady is very confident in Rafa García, calling him one of the few confident picks on the card. He notes García's youth, athleticism, and superior grappling, expecting him to take down Gruetzemacher and secure a submission. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's poor takedown defense and recent poor performance against Alexander Hernandez. Brady predicts a second-round submission for García.

Cody is confident in Rafa García, noting his youth, physicality, and improvement. He points out that García performed well against a tough opponent on short notice and has a well-rounded game. Cody believes García can outstrike or outgrapple Gruetzemacher, who is on the decline with significant layoffs and injuries. He acknowledges the -310 price is high but thinks García should win.

Levi is confident in Rafa García, citing his Mexican warrior spirit, underrated wrestling, and training camp with Trevor Whitman in Denver alongside Justin Gaethje. He believes García pushes an even harder pace than Gruetzemacher and has better cardio. Levi notes that Gruetzemacher's path to victory relies on García gassing or getting hurt, but he thinks García's durability and pace will prevail. He also mentions García's age advantage (12 years younger) and his ability to learn from his first loss.

García has first-round KO power, but if he doesn't finish early, Gruetzemacher's grinding style could cause problems. Gruetzemacher is a poor man's Darren Elkins who pushes forward and breaks opponents. The under 2.5 rounds is the play because either García gets the early KO or Gruetzemacher grinds out a late finish. García by first-round KO is the prediction.

Paul also picks Rafa García, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that García looked good in his debut despite the loss and that Gruetzemacher has not shown much in the UFC. Paul is confident that García's grappling and striking will be too much, but he does not like the -310 price for betting purposes. He would include García in parlays but not as a straight bet.

Big Brady picks Nasrat Haqparast, citing significant advantages in size, reach, and striking technique. He notes that García is smaller (possibly 5'5" or 5'6") and wild on the feet, leaving openings. He expects Haqparast to stuff takedowns and land a knockout, predicting a second-round finish. He also mentions García is coming in on short notice, which is a disadvantage.

Daniel Levi picks Nasrat Haqparast because he has faster hands, more UFC experience, and a powerful left hand. He believes Rafa García's undefeated record gives him false confidence, and his style of throwing single shots and overextending will be exploited by Haqparast. He expects Haqparast to potentially knock García out or win a decision, becoming the first man to defeat him.

Lock thinks the line on Don Madge (Rafa García) at +240 is a bit wide. He considers Madge the better striker technically, with a kicking game and crisper strikes down the middle. He notes Haqparast moves forward with wild shots. Lock is intrigued by the value but hasn't done full tape study.