UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.

The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.

Angelo picks Robert Whittaker easily, citing his speed, cleaner striking, five-round cardio, and improved grappling. He notes Vettori has a brick head and is hard to finish, so he expects a decision win. He has a moneyline bet on Whittaker at -235 and says the line has moved to -300s.

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision. He argues that Whittaker has phenomenal takedown defense and get-up game, so the fight will stay on the feet where Whittaker is the better striker. He notes that Vettori has a granite chin and has never been knocked out, so a finish is unlikely, but Whittaker should outpoint him comfortably.

Cody picks Robert Whittaker, arguing that Whittaker is at his best against aggressive fighters who come forward, as he becomes the counter puncher. He notes that Vettori is a 'junkyard dog' who will brawl, but Whittaker's precision, volume, and ability to make mid-round adjustments will be decisive. Cody also points out that Vettori is not a power puncher, so Whittaker's suspect chin is less of a concern, and that the fight is three rounds, which favors Whittaker's cardio. He recommends Whittaker by decision to improve the -210 price.

Daniel Levi picks Robert Whittaker but expresses hesitation, citing concerns about Whittaker's motivation after two title losses and potential drop-off. He acknowledges Vettori's hunger and mental strength, but believes Whittaker is technically superior. He notes that Whittaker has been hurt in recent fights and that Vettori could potentially finish him, but ultimately leans on the chalk. He does not bet the fight himself.

The host is confident in Whittaker, citing his superior athleticism, striking, wrestling, and overall skill. He expects Whittaker to stay at range, land leg kicks, and possibly secure takedowns. He prefers the decision prop at minus 105, as Vettori is durable and hard to finish.

Paul leans toward Marvin Vettori as a slight underdog, citing Vettori's durability, forward pressure, and wrestling. He is concerned that Whittaker has been hurt many times and may be shopworn from wars with Yoel Romero and Israel Adesanya. Paul believes Vettori's volume and ability to grind out takedowns could be the difference, and that the line is closer than -215/+185. He admits he hasn't bet it yet and will see how weigh-ins go.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Robert Whittaker over Marvin Vettori, stating that Vettori's main problem is talent and skill. He praises Whittaker's boxing ability, footwork, and evolution, noting his dominant win over Kelvin Gastelum. He believes Whittaker will outclass Vettori on the feet with teeps, leg kicks, jabs, and head kicks, and that Vettori won't be able to take him down or outgrapple him. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Whittaker, with Vettori complaining about the decision afterward.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley as a lean because he believes Buckley is faster, more powerful, and more dangerous in a kickboxing match. He notes Imavov doesn't use takedowns much, so it becomes a striking fight. He suggests betting under on rounds or fight doesn't go the distance, and recommends a win inside distance decision no action prop for Buckley.

Big Brady picks Nassourdine Imavov to win by knockout in the second round. He believes Imavov is the better striker and more durable, while Buckley gets hurt often and has been knocked out multiple times. He expects Buckley to have moments, but Imavov will eventually land a big shot and finish him.

Cody leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but is not confident. He notes that Imavov has looked better recently, but his takedown defense and cardio are questionable. Buckley is physically strong and has power, but he is inconsistent and has poor cardio. Cody thinks the fight could go either way and prefers the 'fight goes to decision' prop at +155.

Daniel Levi leans toward Nassourdine Imavov but thinks the -275 price is too steep. He acknowledges Buckley's improvements and power, but believes Imavov is the better fighter with reach and straight punches. He does not bet.

The host likes Imavov's recent improvements, especially his takedown defense and range striking. He believes Imavov will keep the fight at distance, use his kicks, and avoid Buckley's power. He expects Imavov to win by decision, though he notes the -255 price is a bit steep. He also considers the over 1.5 rounds if the line is favorable.

Paul also leans toward Imavov but is hesitant. He agrees with Cody that the line is scary and that Buckley has a puncher's chance. Paul mentions that Imavov is fighting in France, which could be an advantage, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley as an underdog over Nassourdine Imavov. He believes Buckley has improved significantly since his early UFC losses and has momentum, while Imavov has been inactive and may overlook Buckley. He compares Buckley's style to Mike Tyson's head movement and hooks, which he thinks will trouble Imavov's inside game. He predicts Buckley will win a 29-28 decision, winning the first two rounds and losing the third.

Angelo picks Alessio Di Chirico because he is the better MMA fighter with a wrestling backup plan and far more experience. He notes Roman Kopylov is a more technical kickboxer but has a hollow record and has yet to find a UFC win. He expects Di Chirico to win most likely by decision.

Big Brady picks Alessio Di Chirico, but with low confidence, calling it a fight he's staying away from betting. He notes that Di Chirico does slightly more volume and has a clear path to victory via takedowns against Roman Kopylov, who has poor grappling and was submitted by Karl Roberson. However, he doesn't trust Di Chirico to execute.

Cody leans toward Alessio Di Chirico, noting that Kopylov is a one-dimensional boxer with poor takedown defense and cardio, while Di Chirico has more tools including wrestling and kicks. He acknowledges that Di Chirico is inconsistent and has been knocked out recently, but believes he can mix in takedowns and outwork Kopylov. Cody says he will not bet this fight with confidence.

Daniel Levi leans toward Alessio Di Chirico based on experience, but is not confident. He notes that Kopylov is not a typical Russian grinder and has shown poor grappling defense, including getting mounted. He expects a close fight and thinks the -110 line is appropriate. He does not bet this fight.

The host leans towards Kopylov as the more technical striker, expecting him to outwork Di Chirico over 15 minutes. He notes Kopylov's low volume and cardio concerns but believes Di Chirico's inconsistency and poor striking defense give Kopylov the edge. He predicts a decision win but warns it's a close fight.

Paul also leans toward Di Chirico, echoing Cody's sentiment that Di Chirico has more versatility. He notes that the market is moving toward Kopylov, so Di Chirico may be available at plus money closer to fight night. Paul says he will pick Di Chirico for the show but likely won't bet it.

The MMA Guru picks Roman Kopylov over Alessio Di Chirico, calling Kopylov underrated. He notes that Kopylov is young (31) and has had many fights fall through, but he believes Kopylov's striking and cardio will be too much for Di Chirico, who is coming off a KO loss. He predicts Kopylov will finish Di Chirico in the second or third round, as Di Chirico struggles against good strikers.

Angelo picks William Gomis because Gomis is a counter-striker and Errens likes to come forward, which plays directly into Gomis's strength. He notes Gomis has solid clinch work and is well-rounded, but warns the odds are too wide and Errens is legitimately good. He advises not to look at the betting line and make a decision, and does not consider Gomis a parlay piece.

Big Brady picks William Gomis to win by decision. He notes that Jarno Errens has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Gomis has a clear path to victory by taking him down and controlling him on the mat. He warns that if Gomis chooses to strike, it could be close, but trusts the wrestling advantage.

Cody picks Jarno Errens as a dog, arguing that William Gomis is a green prospect who was signed on short notice to fill a local spot. He notes that Gomis backs straight up to the cage and swings wild, while Errens has better experience, cardio, and a more well-rounded game. Cody believes the line is too wide and that Errens has a solid chance to win.

Daniel Levi leans toward William Gomis, citing his African physicality and explosiveness, but is cautious due to Gomis's low volume and the fact that both are debutants. He notes that Errens has more volume and leg kicks, but Gomis has the edge in power and grappling. He is not confident in the -215 price.

The host picks Gomis due to his persistent grappling and cardio, expecting him to land takedown after takedown and grind out a decision. He notes Errens has striking advantages but poor defensive grappling. He finds the over 2.5 rounds at plus 100 intriguing.

Paul changes his pick to Jarno Errens after hearing Cody's reasoning, admitting he was initially leaning toward Gomis. He agrees that Gomis is unproven and that Errens has a better chance than the odds suggest. Paul says he may not bet it but will pick Errens for the show.

The MMA Guru picks William Gomis over Jarno Errens, believing in Gomis as a prospect with good finishing ability and momentum. He notes that Gomis has an eight-fight win streak and has beaten decent opponents, while Errens has mostly decision wins and lacks finishing ability. He predicts Gomis will get a finish by TKO or submission in the early rounds.

Angelo picks Charles Jourdain because of his incredible pressure and cardio, noting that nothing can prepare you for that. He acknowledges Nathaniel Wood has the striking and grappling to win, but Jourdain's pace and volume are overwhelming. He has a moneyline bet on Jourdain and notes the line has not moved.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win by knockout, likely in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has significant power advantage and has finished all but one of his wins, while Wood has been finished in four of five losses and is moving up from 135. He expects Jourdain's durability and third-round surge to be too much for Wood.

Cody picks Charles Jourdain, citing his high volume, cardio, and ability to wear opponents down in the third round. He notes that Jourdain has improved his grappling and that Nathaniel Wood, a former bantamweight, may struggle with the size and durability of Jourdain. Cody acknowledges Wood's speed and wrestling but believes Jourdain's pressure and finishing ability will be decisive.

Daniel Levi picks Charles Jourdain, impressed by his striking and volume, especially his performance against Shane Burgos. He notes that Wood is moving up in weight and may have durability issues, and that Jourdain gets better as the fight goes on while Wood slows down. He expects a competitive fight but leans Jourdain.

The host is confident in Wood, considering him the more disciplined and technical fighter. He believes Wood's grappling and BJJ will be key against Jourdain, who struggles when opponents apply wrestling pressure. He has already placed a 1.5 unit bet on Wood at +120 and expects a decision win, though a submission is possible.

Paul initially leans toward Nathaniel Wood as an underdog, citing Wood's speed and wrestling advantage. However, as the discussion progresses, he becomes less confident, noting that Wood's durability is questionable and that Jourdain's pressure and size could be too much. He ends up not committing firmly, saying he would prefer to take the grappler but acknowledges the risks.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Nathaniel Wood, despite Wood being a UK prospect. He believes Wood may be too small for featherweight and that Jourdain has significant power, as shown against Dooho Choi and Lando Vannata. He criticizes Wood for admiring his work and leaving openings, predicting Jourdain will catch him with a KO in the second round.

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Angelo picks Nasrat Haqparast because he is younger, faster, and more powerful than John Makdessi, and he believes age and inactivity will keep Makdessi a step behind. He notes Nasrat is a high-volume striker with good takedown defense. He has a moneyline bet on Nasrat and says the line has moved in their favor.

Big Brady picks the underdog John Makdessi, despite concerns about his age (37) and layoff due to leg surgery. He notes that Makdessi has excellent striking defense and volume, and that Haqparast has looked poor lately, losing to Dan Hooker and Bobby Green. He expects a very close fight, possibly a split decision, but sides with the dog.

Cody picks John Makdessi as a confident underdog, arguing that Nasrat Haqparast is overvalued as a -240 favorite. He notes that Haqparast has looked lost since his knockout loss to Drew Dober, with low volume and poor performances against Bobby Green and Dan Hooker. Makdessi, despite being 37 and on a layoff, is healthy and motivated, and his taekwondo footwork and angles should give Haqparast trouble. Cody believes the fight will be close and go to decision, making the plus money attractive. He has already bet Makdessi at +200.

Daniel Levi leans toward Nasrat Haqparast due to his youth and reach advantage, but is not confident. He considers Haqparast a busted prospect and notes that Makdessi is a durable veteran who could win a close decision. He thinks the line is wide and that the fight could be close. He does not bet.

The host leans towards Haqparast, believing he will land the bigger shots and win a decision. However, he is not confident due to Haqparast's inconsistency and Makdessi's veteran savvy. He advises caution and suggests the fight is volatile.

Paul also picks John Makdessi, sharing Cody's view that Haqparast's volume is too low and that Makdessi's experience and striking will keep it competitive. He mentions a personal anecdote about meeting Makdessi years ago, but the reasoning is based on Haqparast's recent struggles and Makdessi's ability to win a close decision. Paul has also bet Makdessi at +200 and calls it his first click of the week.

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Nasrat Haqparast over John Makdessi, citing Makdessi's age (37) and long layoff (1.5 years). He believes Haqparast is still improving and has a solid chin, while Makdessi may not be the same fighter. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Haqparast, with his grit carrying him in the later rounds.

Angelo picks Michal Figlak because he expects Figlak to transition to wrestling after getting touched up on the feet, winning a decision. He notes Ziam is a technical striker but lacks power, so he will pot shot his way to a decision if Figlak doesn't wrestle. He thinks Figlak's wrestling will be the difference.

Big Brady picks Michal Figlak to win by decision. He argues that Figlak's pressure and forward-moving style will give Ziam problems, as Ziam struggles when pressured and prefers to fight on the outside. He also notes Figlak can mix in takedowns. He expects a close fight on the feet but Figlak's pressure and occasional takedowns will earn him the win.

Cody picks Michal Figlak, praising his constant pressure, boxing combinations, body work, and wrestling. He notes that Figlak is a strong Polish fighter with good cardio and a dogged style. Farès Ziam, on the other hand, has low striking volume (2.06 strikes per minute), poor takedown defense, and has been cut from the UFC before. Cody believes Figlak will overwhelm Ziam with pressure and grappling, and he likes Figlak by late finish or decision. He also mentions the over 2 takedowns prop and the fantasy score over 86.5 on PrizePicks.

Daniel Levi picks Farès Ziam as an underdog, betting one unit at +170. He believes Ziam is underrated and that the line should be closer to pick'em. He notes Ziam's sharp kickboxing and improving takedown defense, and thinks Figlak is not a finisher on the ground. He expects Ziam to win a striking match.

The host leans towards Figlak due to his grappling advantage, expecting him to close the distance and use clinch work to control Ziam. He acknowledges Ziam's striking superiority but doubts Ziam's takedown defense. However, he is not betting because the line at -200 is too high for a debutant.

Paul also picks Michal Figlak, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He highlights Figlak's pressure, wrestling, and durability, and notes that Ziam's low output and takedown defense are major weaknesses. Paul likes Figlak to win by decision or late finish, and he has bet Figlak round 3 at +1800.

The MMA Guru picks Michal Figlak over Farès Ziam, praising Figlak's pressure, power, and cardio. He notes that Figlak has been consistent and durable, while Ziam has had inconsistent performances and close decisions. He predicts Figlak will win a tough 29-28 decision, as he is always winning rounds and doesn't have to come back from adversity.

Angelo picks Benoît Saint Denis because he is the better MMA fighter and has good wrestling and top pressure. He warns that Benoît should avoid going to the ground with Miranda, who is a slick BJJ guy. He hopes Benoît keeps it standing and uses elbows from top if it goes to the ground. No bets on this fight yet.

Big Brady picks Benoît Saint Denis to win by finish in the second round. He notes that Miranda is dangerous early with submissions but gasses after the first round, and Saint Denis can weather the storm and take over. He expects Saint Denis to eventually finish Miranda via TKO or submission once Miranda tires.

Cody picks Benoît Saint Denis confidently, citing his durability, wrestling, and pressure. He notes that Gabriel Miranda has a padded record with wins over low-level competition and has never faced anyone near Saint Denis's level. Saint Denis is a strong grappler with good cardio, and Miranda's only path is a submission off his back, which is unlikely. Cody likes the over 1.5 rounds prop and believes Saint Denis will dominate.

Daniel Levi is confident in Benoît Saint Denis, citing his toughness and size advantage. He notes that Miranda is too small for lightweight and that Saint Denis will likely dominate with wrestling and pressure. He expects Saint Denis to cover the -285 price.

The host is confident in Benoît Saint Denis due to his relentless pace, cardio, and finishing ability. He notes that both fighters are early finishers, but Saint Denis's superior cardio will allow him to outlast Miranda, who tends to fade after the first round. He expects a finish in the second or third round.

Paul also picks Benoît Saint Denis, agreeing with Cody. He highlights Saint Denis's durability and grappling, and notes that Miranda's record is suspicious. Paul is concerned about the -275 price but thinks Saint Denis should win, possibly by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Benoît Saint Denis over Gabriel Miranda, despite some worry about Miranda's cardio from MMA Masters. He believes Saint Denis is strong for the division and will use his stockier build to overpower Miranda, who is tall and lanky. He predicts Saint Denis will get a submission win in the first round by throwing Miranda around.

Angelo picks Stephanie Egger because she is a grappler with high-level judo takedowns and control positions. He notes that while Ailín Pérez is a good prospect who can bully opponents, Egger is likely to get the takedowns and work control. He thinks the odds are too wide and would consider betting on Pérez with a plus 3.5 round buy or a win inside distance decision no action prop.

Big Brady picks Stephanie Egger to win by first-round submission. He notes that Ailín Pérez has looked good but against very low-level competition, and this is a huge step up. He believes Egger's experience against better fighters and her ability to get the fight to the mat will be decisive, and that Pérez has faced no adversity and will struggle when she does.

Cody picks Stephanie Egger, noting that she is a judo black belt with strong clinch and ground game. He argues that Ailín Pérez is a low-level fighter with a padded record and poor competition. Egger should be able to take Pérez down and submit her, as she has done to similar opponents. Cody likes the under 35.5 significant strikes for Egger on PrizePicks, as her fights are usually grappling-heavy and low-volume.

Daniel Levi picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her physicality and aggression could overwhelm Stephanie Egger. He notes that Pérez likes to tie up and impose her will, which could neutralize Egger's judo. He acknowledges it's a 50/50 fight and that Pérez might get thrown, but he leans toward the upset.

The host leans towards Stephanie Egger, believing she is the better overall grappler and will be more proactive on the mat, possibly finding a submission or dominating from top position. However, he is hesitant to bet at -300, fearing that Pérez might transfer her regional success to the UFC. He predicts Egger inside the distance but will likely stay off the fight entirely.

Paul picks Stephanie Egger, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Pérez is an Argentinian fighter with no notable wins and that Egger's judo and clinch work will be too much. Paul says he will not bet the chalk but expects Egger to win by submission.

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Egger over Ailín Pérez, calling Egger a safe pick against a debutant. He notes that Pérez hasn't faced high-level competition and lacks submission skills, while Egger has strong grappling and judo. He predicts Egger will win by submission in the first round, as she is active and has momentum despite her recent loss.