Career Averages - Abusupiyan Magomedov
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
Abusupiyan Magomedov
Dustin Stoltzfus
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 13 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 16 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Joe Pyfer | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Joe Pyfer | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Joe Pyfer | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joe Pyfer | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.
Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.
Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.
Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.
Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 73 of 168 | 43% | 74 of 169 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 78 of 134 | 58% | 83 of 140 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 23 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 41 of 90 | 45% | 41 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 36 of 57 | 63% | 36 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 73 of 168 | 43% | 27 of 90 | 27 of 50 | 19 of 28 | 72 of 166 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 78 of 134 | 58% | 53 of 99 | 19 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 72 of 128 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 7 of 20 | 35% | 0 of 4 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 18 of 31 | 58% | 10 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 25 of 58 | 43% | 7 of 28 | 8 of 17 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 24 of 46 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 8 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 41 of 90 | 45% | 20 of 58 | 15 of 24 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 88 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 36 of 57 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.
Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.
Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.
The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.
Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 45 of 81 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 36 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 21 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 10 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 26 of 59 | 44% | 10 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 29 of 71 | 40% | 20 of 59 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 14 of 29 | 48% | 4 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 23 | 34% | 3 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 20 of 42 | 47% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brunno Ferreira | 7 of 17 | 41% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.
Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.
Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.
Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.
Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.
Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.
Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.
The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.
Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.
Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 22 of 44 | 50% | 98 of 168 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:56 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 30 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:30 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 8 of 24 | 33% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 48 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 22 of 44 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 15 |
| Warlley Alves | 16 of 38 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 5 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Warlley Alves | 8 of 24 | 33% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Warlley Alves | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Warlley Alves | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.
Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.
Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.
Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 1 | 51 of 103 | 49% | 70 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 38 of 107 | 35% | 39 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 7 of 33 | 21% | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caio Borralho | 51 of 103 | 49% | 33 of 73 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 15 | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 38 of 107 | 35% | 19 of 74 | 14 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 38 of 107 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caio Borralho | 11 of 25 | 44% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 33 | 21% | 5 of 24 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Caio Borralho | 21 of 42 | 50% | 13 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 20 of 49 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Caio Borralho | 19 of 36 | 52% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 11 of 25 | 44% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.
Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.
Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.
James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 1 | 81 of 188 | 43% | 81 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 47 of 101 | 46% | 47 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 0 | 11 of 48 | 22% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 1 | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 0 | 15 of 41 | 36% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 81 of 188 | 43% | 80 of 186 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 168 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 47 of 101 | 46% | 21 of 68 | 16 of 23 | 10 of 10 | 47 of 101 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Strickland | 11 of 48 | 22% | 10 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 32 of 60 | 53% | 10 of 34 | 13 of 17 | 9 of 9 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Strickland | 70 of 140 | 50% | 70 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 56 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 20 |
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 15 of 41 | 36% | 11 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-145), Magomedov (+125)
Round 1
In the next 25 minutes or less, one of two outcomes could play out, barring something crazy. Either a top contender in Strickland (26-5, 13-5 UFC) holds the line against a surging up-and-comer, or the hard-charging Magomedov (25-4-1, 1-0 UFC) stamps his ticket towards the top echelon of the 185- pound division in a hurry. Referee Mark Smith will be on the final call of the night, and the potentially intriguing striking affair will begin with a glove touch. Magomedov pushes off early with two front kicks, and Strickland brushes his side and absorbs a low kick. Magomedov crashes forward with looping strikes, and as Strickland circles away and lines up a jab, Magomedov pushes off and a finger slides into his eye. Smith calls time, and after 30 seconds, he calls in the doctor. Strickland mentioned that he cannot see, and he takes the cloth from the physician and wipes out his eye. Strickland paces back and forth, trying to clear his vision, and he is struggling to see. After two minutes of attempted recover, Strickland mentions he has double vision. Strickland states the he is good to go at just under three minutes of time off, and the two clap hands on the reset. Magomedov is quick to loop at front kick at him, and several front kicks follow that in rapid succession. Magomedov digs a kick deep on the upper calf, and he takes a jab and aims a second leg kick to the same spot. Magomedov gives chase, throwing wide strikes, and Strickland’s partial Philly Shell guard is allowing him to block and parry the worst of the strikes. Magomedov slings a left hand that gets around the guard, and Strickland has to shake it out. Strickland prods out with a few jabs, and Magomedov’s volume and power is far higher. Strickland dodges and weaves the power punches, and he circles into a front kick to his midsection. Strickland peppers Magomedov with jabs, reddening the nose up, but Magomedov chambers and fires several harmful leg kicks. Magomedov connects with a straight left up top and one to the body, and he gets backed up with a stream of jabs. Strickland pressures his foe and leans when a right hand brushes past his hair, and he splits the guard with an increasingly steady diet of jabs. Strickland takes a head kick right on the jaw, and Magomedov shoots in for a double and manages to throw the defensively sound Strickland to his seat. As Magomedov attempts to take his back, Strickland scoots out and works back to his feet. Strickland follows one jab with a solid right hand, but he is generally relying on his jab. Strickland takes a clean left hand over the top, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start off the second frame, and Strickland lifts his leg up early to take the sting out of a leg kick. Magomedov swings for the fences with two hooks, and Strickland snipes Magomedov with a one-two. Strickland walks down Magomedov, who appears surprised by the blows, and he stumbles when he meets the cage behind him. Strickland drills Magomedov with another one-two, and he stalks after the Russian putting his punches together. Magomedov’s offense is limited to big counter punches, and Strickland senses his opening and lays into “Abus.” Strickland is in his groove, snapping out sharp jabs and follow-up punches, and Magomedov is reeling. Magomedov shells up, and Strickland accurately gets strikes around it and through it. Magomedov is fatiguing fast, his strikes telegraphed, while Strickland is not missing a beat as he lands with impunity. Strickland rattles Magomedov with a right hand, and he rolls through a counter that does not have nearly as much on it. Magomedov winces and gets backed up to the cage, and Strickland unleashes a vicious combination of punches to mess Magomedov up. Magomedov’s mouth wide open, he backs off while Strickland is comfortable to beat on him. Magomedov digs a pair of huge left hands to the body, but for every one he lands, Strickland gets off five or more.
Magomedov takes a long look at the clock, and he frowns as Strickland jabs his face off. Magomedov crumbles from the methodical bludgeoning, his knees giving way as he slumps his back to the cage. Strickland shoves him over to his side, and he force-feeds his fist into Magomedov’s face again and again without any signs of slowing. Magomedov is barely hanging on at this point, just taking damage, and Smith watches on cautiously until he decides that enough is enough and “Abus” is done.
After likely dropping the first round, Strickland came on strong, reminding the division that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and notching another win at the UFC Apex. A gracious Strickland thanks the fans and says he would not do what he does – or get paid – were it not for the fans. He then declares his love for the country, after calling for either a title shot or “meat” to fight. Whether Strickland ends up getting a crack at the belt after beating an unranked opponent in Magomedov, or he posts up at the Apex for another few headliners, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Result
Sean Strickland def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 4:20 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Abus Magomedov despite Strickland being the favorite. He notes Strickland's high volume and takedown defense but believes Abus's power and versatility will be key. He expects Abus to win early rounds but acknowledges Strickland's pressure could wear him down. He mentions a potential plus 5.5 point buy on the scorecard for Abus.
Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by decision. He notes Strickland has faced much better competition and has five-round experience, while Magomedov has only one UFC fight. He thinks Strickland is the better striker, especially as the fight goes on, and Magomedov's only path is a first-round knockout. He expects Strickland to survive the early rounds and take over later.
Cody is shocked the line moved from -175 to -145, as Strickland is coming off a dominant five-round performance on short notice. He emphasizes Strickland's proven cardio, durability, and volume against elite competition, while Magomedov has only one UFC win over Dustin Stoltzfus and was knocked out by Lewis Taylor in PFL. Cody sees Magomedov's level of competition as far below Strickland's and believes the line is a trap but is willing to bet Strickland anyway.
Daniel leans Strickland due to his proven volume and output over five rounds, citing his 200+ significant strikes against Imavov and 150+ against Cannonier. He acknowledges Magomedov's power and finishing ability, especially early, but sees Strickland's pace and durability as key. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation because Magomedov's decision record (5-1) and power make the outcome uncertain. He notes Strickland's output increases in later rounds, which favors him if the fight goes the distance.
James discusses the matchup at length but does not make a definitive pick. He notes that Abusupiyan has stylistic advantages in wrestling that Strickland hasn't faced recently, and that Strickland's pressure and experience in five-round fights are factors. He says he needs to do more tape before coming to a prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, surprised by the line movement. He highlights Strickland's ability to go five rounds at 185, his volume (182 significant strikes in his last fight), and his ranking as #4 in the division. He notes Magomedov is not ranked in the top 15 and has fought mostly low-level competition. Paul believes Strickland's experience and cardio are decisive.
The Guru picks Sean Strickland, reasoning that Abus Magomedov's only notable win is over Dustin Stoltzfus, which is not enough evidence. He notes Strickland's experience and pressure, and believes if Magomedov doesn't finish in round one, his finishing rate plummets. He predicts Strickland will wear him down and get a late-round TKO or decision, similar to his win over Nassourdine Imavov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 57 of 117 | 48% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 64 of 146 | 43% | 69 of 151 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 57 of 117 | 48% | 30 of 81 | 16 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 56 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 64 of 146 | 43% | 25 of 93 | 25 of 34 | 14 of 19 | 55 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 24 of 49 | 48% | 3 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 52 | 38% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.
Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.
Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.
Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 41 of 62 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:11 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 35 of 68 | 51% | 53 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 3:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 21 of 37 | 56% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 35 of 68 | 51% | 24 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 21 | 66% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.
Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.
The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.
The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.
Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.
Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.
Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.
Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.
The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.
Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.
Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.
Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.
Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.
The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 54 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 49 of 112 | 43% | 102 of 173 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 52 of 100 | 52% | 35 of 79 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 49 of 112 | 43% | 23 of 81 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 23 | 35 of 88 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 23 of 35 | 65% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 17 of 43 | 39% | 7 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 28 | 50% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 20 of 38 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 15 of 37 | 40% | 11 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.
Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.
Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 51 of 72 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 7:27 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 12 of 32 | 37% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.
The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.
Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.
Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.
Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.
Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.
The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.
Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.
The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
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