Ailín Pérez

Angelo is shocked that Ailín Pérez is only a -165 favorite, believing she should be a -300 favorite. He highlights Pérez's relentless takedowns and pressure, noting that Macy Chiasson gets taken down easily and has been on a losing skid. He expects Pérez to shoot takedowns and win a decision, especially with the Mexican judges favoring aggression.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez but expresses hesitation due to elevation concerns and Pérez's history of gassing. He compares Macy Chiasson to 'female Phil Rowe,' noting she is big but ineffective and can be controlled on the ground. He believes Pérez can take Chiasson down and win the first two rounds, but the third could be sketchy. He predicts a decision win.

Cody agrees, noting Chiasson's weight cut issues and tendency to fade. He highlights Pérez's strong top game and expects a decision win. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to potentially get better odds on Pérez.

Connor picks Pérez, noting that Chiasson is breakable and lacks durability. He points out that Chiasson's wins often come when she is confident, but she tends to fade or get finished. Pérez is tough and knows how to win, making her the safer pick despite Chiasson's finishing ability.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is betting on Chiasson despite her inconsistency because the odds are too wide. He believes Chiasson is better than Pérez everywhere: she has a huge size and reach advantage, is a better striker and grappler, and has superior cardio. However, Chiasson has self-destructive tendencies and bad fight IQ, making her unreliable. The host caps the fight at 50/50 because Chiasson only shows up half the time, but at +149, the value is too good to pass up. He also notes Pérez's cardio may suffer at high altitude.

James favors Pérez due to her wrestling and top control, which should neutralize Chiasson's striking. He notes Chiasson's confidence issues and tendency to wilt when pressured. James predicts Pérez wins by decision, though he admits bias as he knows Pérez personally.

The host picks Macy Chiasson as an underdog, surprised that Pérez is -185. He believes Chiasson is stronger and lands more damage, while Pérez relies on grinding top control. He expects Chiasson to defend takedowns and land the better strikes, winning a decision. He notes Chiasson's recent losing streak but thinks she matches up well.

Paul expects Pérez to use her wrestling to control Chiasson, who struggles with weight cuts and cardio at altitude. He sees a decision win for Pérez and recommends waiting for weigh-ins to confirm Chiasson's condition.

The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez, trusting her takedown entries and physicality. He notes that Macy Chiasson looked bad in her last fight against Irene Aldana, and he believes Pérez can take her down and control the ground. He predicts a 29-28 decision win, acknowledging that Pérez has been improving and has a strong build for the division.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her wrestling and forward pressure will be too much for Karol Rosa, who hasn't faced a strong wrestler recently. He notes that Rosa's takedown defense is untested against a wrestler of Pérez's style. He has a small bet on Pérez at +150 and is surprised the odds are widening instead of tightening.

Cody picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, citing her wrestling and top control. He notes that Pérez has taken down all her UFC opponents and has improved rapidly at Fortis MMA. Rosa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game once taken down, as seen against Sarah McMahon and Norma Dumont. Cody believes Pérez will take Rosa down, control her, and win rounds. He also mentions that Rosa has no power and all her wins are by decision, so Pérez only needs to win the first two rounds.

Daniel picks Pérez for the upset, noting that he has lost money betting on Rosa multiple times. He believes Pérez's relentless takedown attack and improved standup will be key. Daniel thinks if Pérez takes Rosa down, she can win. He mentions that Rosa has poor takedown defense and has faded in fights.

Lucrative James picks Karol Rosa, stating she is the better overall MMA fighter with superior striking, cardio, experience, and grappling. He acknowledges Ailín Pérez's tenacious wrestling and potential to cause problems early, but notes Pérez's poor cardio and striking, which often leads to her fading in round three. James observes that Rosa typically has her best round in the third, while Pérez fades, making a late stoppage or decision win for Rosa likely. He understands the appeal of Pérez as a big underdog due to her grappling, but ultimately favors Rosa's well-rounded game.

The host believes Rosa has a significant striking advantage and can stay upright against Perez's grinding grappling. He expects Rosa to chop away at the lead leg and possibly muster a late finish, but ultimately win on the scorecards.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Pérez. He notes that if the fight becomes a grappling match, Pérez has the advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pérez's cardio has been problematic in round three, but believes she can win the first two rounds. At plus 210, he sees plenty of value. He also mentions that Rosa has no power, so Pérez can afford to slow down late.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez confidently. He highlights her relentless forward pressure and takedowns, and notes that Daria's takedown defense is just okay. He expects Pérez to control the fight with wrestling and cardio, though he acknowledges Daria won a decision despite being taken down multiple times in her last fight. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez by decision, citing her wrestling advantage (5 takedowns per 15 minutes) against Zhelezniakova's 50% takedown defense. He notes Pérez often has sketchy moments in fights but thinks she can win the first two rounds. He expects a decision win, possibly losing the third round.

Cody picks Zhelezniakova as an underdog, citing the hometown advantage and Pérez's tendency to do just enough to win without finishing. He notes that Pérez's takedowns often lead to little damage, and the judges may favor the local fighter in close rounds. Zhelezniakova is a striker who can outland Pérez on the feet.

Connor agrees, pointing out that Pérez's wins have come against low-level competition and that she almost lost to Jocelyn Edwards. He thinks the odds are too wide in Pérez's favor and that Zhelezniakova is a bigger athlete who doesn't constantly do stuff that doesn't work.

Daniel Vreeland picks Ailín Pérez to win. He thinks Pérez's wrestling will dominate, as she has landed many takedowns in recent fights. He notes Zhelezniakova has poor takedown defense and has been controlled on the ground. He expects Pérez to win by decision or ground-and-pound, but is not interested in the price.

JP picks Ailín Pérez but is hesitant because the line is -275, which he thinks is too big for a close fight. He compares Zhelezniakova to Daria Dudova, who was a good striker but faded when pressured. He thinks Pérez's pressure and clinch work will win her the decision.

Paul initially picks Pérez due to her takedown threat, but after discussion, he switches to Zhelezniakova citing the CF model and hometown cooking. He notes that Pérez doesn't do enough with takedowns and that the fight could be close, favoring the local fighter.

The MMA Guru picks Ailín Pérez over Daria Zhelezniakova, citing Pérez's size and strength, particularly her lower body power. He notes that Zhelezniakova has good striking but struggles with grappling, and Pérez has strong takedown entries. He expects Pérez to win via grappling.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez to win due to her relentless wrestling and forward pressure, despite her sometimes sloppy control on the ground. He thinks Joselyne Edwards is underrated and has good kickboxing and improved takedown defense, but believes Pérez's wrestling will be the difference. He plans to bet on Edwards plus 3.5 and over 2.5 rounds as prop bets.

Big Brady thinks Ailín Pérez will be under the radar. He expects her to wrestle, get multiple takedowns, control time, and ground strikes. He notes Joselyne Edwards struggles with getting taken down and held down. He does not see a finish but expects a solid score at low ownership.

Cody picks Pérez but is hesitant, noting she slowed down in the third round against Lucie Pudilova and took damage. He expects Pérez to get early takedowns and control the fight, but worries about her cardio. He thinks she will win by decision but is not confident enough to add her high on parlays. He acknowledges Edwards' fights are close and could go either way.

Daniel notes Edwards has improved but still gets reversed. He thinks Pérez's relentless takedown attempts will be enough if Edwards makes a mistake. He reluctantly picks Pérez but says it's dog or pass.

The host expects Pérez to exploit Edwards' poor takedown defense and grind out a decision. Pérez's strength and top control should neutralize Edwards' volume striking, and Edwards' lack of finishing threat late in fights allows Pérez to survive her own cardio issues. The grudge match may add emotion, but Pérez's discipline and physicality should prevail.

Paul picks Pérez, citing her physical strength and top pressure. He notes Edwards' fights are always close and go to decision, and she lacks volume and power. Paul believes Pérez will initiate takedowns, control the clinch, and win a decision. He mentions Pérez's win over Stephanie Egger and her grappling credentials. He expects the New Jersey crowd to favor Pérez's aggressive style.

Angelo is very confident in Ailín Pérez, citing her incredible cardio and wrestling pressure from her last fight where she set the bantamweight record for takedowns. He notes Lucie Pudilová can be taken down and that -150 feels like a good deal. He plans to bet on her.

Big Brady finds Perez's nickname change to 'Nurmagomedov' hilarious but thinks she earned it with 10 takedowns in her last fight. He sees Perez as a bully who will come forward, push Pudilová against the cage, and take her down repeatedly. He notes Pudilová has better striking but has struggled with takedowns and control in the past. He believes the odds flip is correct and Perez should be the favorite, winning a grinding decision.

Cody picks Ailín Pérez, citing her takedown volume and pressure. He notes that Pudilová has poor takedown defense and low striking volume. Pérez can grind out a decision with takedowns and control. Cody also mentions a PrizePicks play on Pérez over 2.5 takedowns.

Pudilová has improved her grappling significantly since her first UFC stint, now using it offensively. She is the cleaner striker and can cut up Pérez on the feet. Even on the ground, Pudilová can throw up submissions and reverse positions. Pérez relies on strength and bullying, which may not work against a technically better grappler like Pudilová. Pudilová wins by decision.

Paul picks Pérez, noting her physical strength and relentless pressure. He highlights Pudilová's inability to defend takedowns and her tendency to lose decisions. Paul expects Pérez to control the fight with takedowns and cage work.

Angelo picks Ailín Pérez, believing Ashlee will be rusty after a two-year layoff due to a USADA suspension. He notes Pérez defended five takedowns in her debut and got one of her own, while Ashlee is well-rounded but not a killer. He acknowledges Ashlee's experience makes her a live dog but thinks Pérez's youth and activity give her the edge.

Big Brady picks Ailín Pérez because Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off a 2.5-year layoff, is 36 years old, and was 1-4 in her last five fights before the suspension. He doubts she will show a much improved version of herself. While he acknowledges Pérez is not great, he believes her youth and activity will be enough to win. He calls laying -225 'very irresponsible' and says he won't bet it, but he thinks Pérez wins the fight.

Cody picks Pérez, citing her youth, hunger, and physical strength. He details Evans-Smith's personal issues, inactivity, and declining athleticism. He thinks Pérez will mash her into the cage, take her down, and test her cardio. He expects a finish inside the distance.

The host notes that Ashlee Evans-Smith is coming off a nearly three-year layoff and is 36 years old, making her hard to trust. He believes Pérez will follow a similar game plan to Norma Dumont, using forward pressure and power to nullify Evans-Smith's wrestling and win by decision. Despite Pérez being raw, the host favors her due to Evans-Smith's inactivity and age.

Paul picks Pérez, citing her youth, hunger, and physical strength. He notes Evans-Smith has been inactive for three years and has personal issues. He thinks Pérez can take her down and rough her up. He is not touching the -220 line but picks her to win.

Angelo picks Stephanie Egger because she is a grappler with high-level judo takedowns and control positions. He notes that while Ailín Pérez is a good prospect who can bully opponents, Egger is likely to get the takedowns and work control. He thinks the odds are too wide and would consider betting on Pérez with a plus 3.5 round buy or a win inside distance decision no action prop.

Big Brady picks Stephanie Egger to win by first-round submission. He notes that Ailín Pérez has looked good but against very low-level competition, and this is a huge step up. He believes Egger's experience against better fighters and her ability to get the fight to the mat will be decisive, and that Pérez has faced no adversity and will struggle when she does.

Cody picks Stephanie Egger, noting that she is a judo black belt with strong clinch and ground game. He argues that Ailín Pérez is a low-level fighter with a padded record and poor competition. Egger should be able to take Pérez down and submit her, as she has done to similar opponents. Cody likes the under 35.5 significant strikes for Egger on PrizePicks, as her fights are usually grappling-heavy and low-volume.

Daniel Levi picks Ailín Pérez as an underdog, believing her physicality and aggression could overwhelm Stephanie Egger. He notes that Pérez likes to tie up and impose her will, which could neutralize Egger's judo. He acknowledges it's a 50/50 fight and that Pérez might get thrown, but he leans toward the upset.

The host leans towards Stephanie Egger, believing she is the better overall grappler and will be more proactive on the mat, possibly finding a submission or dominating from top position. However, he is hesitant to bet at -300, fearing that Pérez might transfer her regional success to the UFC. He predicts Egger inside the distance but will likely stay off the fight entirely.

Paul picks Stephanie Egger, echoing Cody's reasoning. He notes that Pérez is an Argentinian fighter with no notable wins and that Egger's judo and clinch work will be too much. Paul says he will not bet the chalk but expects Egger to win by submission.