UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac

Big Brady favors Spivac due to his wrestling, cardio, and ability to maul opponents on the ground. He acknowledges Lewis's knockout power but believes Spivac will take him down and make him quit. He predicts a third-round submission win.

Cody picks Spivac, citing his wrestling ability to take Lewis down repeatedly. He notes that Lewis has been taken down by many heavyweights and that Spivac's takedown volume should lead to a finish in round 2 or 3. He also likes the prop of Spivac over 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He acknowledges Lewis's puncher's chance but believes Spivac wins 70% of the time.

Connor picks Derrick Lewis despite acknowledging Spivak's well-rounded game and youth. He believes Lewis's style of surviving and landing big shots has historically beaten grinders like Spivak. However, he is concerned that Lewis's recent aggression and overconfidence may lead to him being off-balanced and taken down. He calls this a 'last ride' for Lewis, indicating low confidence.

Paul agrees with Spivac, noting he got the line at -190 before it moved. He argues that Lewis's weight loss is a red flag at age 37, and that Spivac's youth and improving grappling will overwhelm Lewis. He expects Spivac to get takedowns and eventually submit Lewis, as Lewis has not faced many submission threats. He strongly disagrees with the idea that Lewis will knock out Spivac.

Zane picks Derrick Lewis, agreeing with Connor that Spivak's style is not the kind that beats Lewis. He notes that Lewis has always been beaten by punchers, not grinders, and that Spivak's takedowns are inefficient and may gas him. However, he is concerned about Lewis's recent losses and aggressive mindset, making this a low-confidence pick.

Big Brady sees Jung as the bigger, more powerful striker with solid takedown defense. He criticizes Devin Clark's recent performance and lack of wrestling. He expects Jung to knock out Clark early, likely in the first round.

Cody leans toward Jung but is not confident. He notes Jung's power and elbows in the clinch, but worries about his cardio and size. He thinks Devin Clark could grind out a decision by pressing Jung against the cage. He considers the line too big and prefers to pass or bet the over 2.5 rounds at +130.

Connor picks Da Woon Jung, citing his reach advantage and consistent pressure striking. He notes that Devin Clark lacks a process in his striking, with no jab, feints, or defense, and that his father's coaching has stunted his development. Connor expects Jung to win a three-round decision, as Clark is durable but unable to handle Jung's range and output.

Paul also leans toward Jung but is not betting. He notes Jung's size advantage (6'4" vs 6'0") and power, but acknowledges Clark's durability and grinding style. He points out that Clark often fights to a decision and lacks killer instinct. He prefers to avoid the fight entirely.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Da Woon Jung. He highlights Jung's size and durability, and Clark's inability to put together combinations or defend effectively. Zane notes that Clark's only chance is a surprise head kick, but Jung's consistent pressure and reach will lead to a clear decision win.

Big Brady calls this a messy fight and expects it to go to a greasy decision. He picks the underdog Ivanov because he is more durable and has never been finished, while Tybura has been finished multiple times. He is not confident and advises against betting.

Cody picks Ivanov at plus money, calling it a close heavyweight fight. He believes Ivanov has a slight edge in technical boxing and volume. He notes both fighters are low-volume and durable, expecting a decision. He took Ivanov at +130 and thinks the fight is essentially 50-50, so he takes the underdog.

Connor picks Marcin Tybura, expecting a split decision. He notes that Tybura is more proactive with kicks and combinations, and will likely be the one initiating clinch exchanges. However, he acknowledges Ivanov's durability and defensive wrestling, which could make the fight ugly. Connor is confident it will be a split decision but leans Tybura due to higher output.

Paul picks Tybura, arguing that Ivanov has looked slow and predictable in recent fights. He notes Ivanov's poor cardio and lack of takedown attempts, while Tybura has good cardio and mobility for a heavyweight. He expects Tybura to outwork Ivanov, especially in the later rounds. He also likes the under on Tybura 1.5 takedowns on PrizePicks.

Zane picks Marcin Tybura, agreeing that it will be a split decision. He notes that Tybura has better tools at range and is more likely to control the clinch. However, he warns that Ivanov's power and chin could cause an upset if Tybura gets hurt. Zane sees Tybura's improved composure as a key factor.

Big Brady is wary of Choi's long layoff and recent losses. He thinks Nelson has power and a chance to knock out Choi early. He picks Nelson by first-round knockout but says he is not betting on the moneyline, only interested in the under.

Cody picks Choi, citing his superior skill set and speed. He notes that Choi's four-year layoff may actually benefit him by allowing his body to heal from previous damage. He believes Choi is a better striker, grappler, and wrestler than Nelson. He expects Choi to win by knockout or clear decision, and likes the under 2.5 rounds at -175.

Connor picks Dooho Choi, citing more concrete reasons to distrust Kyle Nelson. He notes that Nelson is self-defeating, with a tendency to fade after an initial burst, and that Choi is a good scrambler who won't be held down. However, he acknowledges Choi's long layoff and chin concerns, making this a low-confidence pick.

Paul picks Choi, emphasizing his skill advantage and the fact that Nelson is being fed as an easy opponent. He notes that Choi has always looked good early in fights but faded, and the layoff may help. He thinks Nelson's only path is to grind, but Choi's speed and accuracy should prevail. He also mentions the time zone advantage for Asian fighters.

Zane picks Dooho Choi, but is more concerned than Connor. He notes that Nelson is dangerous early and has a reach advantage, and that Choi is an unknown after a long layoff. However, he trusts Choi's durability and believes Nelson's anxiety will cause him to fade. Zane sees a serious chance of Nelson winning by KO or TKO.

Big Brady likes Kinoshita's power and finishing ability, noting his 100% finish rate. He thinks Fugitt is hittable and has been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout for Kinoshita.

Cody picks Fugitt as a dog for the show, but is not confident enough to bet. He notes Fugitt's size and wrestling, but acknowledges Kinoshita's speed advantage. He thinks Fugitt could exploit wrestling but the speed differential is massive. He prefers to live bet if Fugitt gets an early takedown.

Connor picks Yusaku Kinoshita, praising his pressure striking and weight transfer. He notes that Fugitt is not durable or fast, and that Kinoshita's chaotic style will overwhelm him. Connor expects a knockout, as Fugitt has been shaken by big shots before. He compares Kinoshita's style to Dan Henderson's.

Paul picks Kinoshita, calling him a legitimate prospect with better skills. He notes Kinoshita's speed, power, and finishing ability, though he is unproven at 22. He thinks Fugitt is durable but limited, and that Kinoshita will likely finish him. He acknowledges the risk of betting a young debutant but believes the skill gap is real.

Zane picks Yusaku Kinoshita, agreeing that it's a classic game of chicken. He notes that Kinoshita is more willing to stand his ground and come forward, and that Fugitt's wrestling is less effective when he's backing up. Zane acknowledges Kinoshita's defensive flaws but believes Fugitt is not the fighter to exploit them.

Big Brady favors Saragih's power and finishing ability, noting his 92% finish rate. He worries about Saragih's cardio but thinks he can get an early knockout. He picks Saragih by first-round knockout but suggests Jubli could be a live bet if the fight extends.

Cody picks Saragih, surprised he is the underdog. He notes Saragih has more tools and is a potent finisher with spinning attacks and power. He thinks Jubli is a straightforward striker who gasses, while Saragih has shown finishing ability. He took Saragih at -110.

Connor agrees with Zane, pointing out that Jubli is not a knockout artist and may lack power despite his height. He notes that Saragih has natural power and sets up entries well, and that Jubli's tendency to step into the pocket could lead to a rude awakening. He also mentions that Jubli was shaken by a left hook in a previous fight, and Saragih could land a similar shot that knocks him out cold.

Paul picks Saragih, calling him a showman with legitimate power. He notes Saragih's highlight-reel knockouts and willingness to take a punch to land one. He thinks Jubli has better movement but gasses, and Saragih will eventually land a knockout. He expects a sloppy, entertaining fight ending in a KO for Saragih.

Zane favors Saragih due to the latent stiffness in Jubli's game, comparing him to an early-stage Henry Hooft fighter who overthinks and has a half-second delay. He notes that Saragih is a stocky, muscle-bound power hitter with quick triggers and a willingness to brawl, and that Jubli's fundamental approach may lead to a prospect loss where shortcuts are rewarded.

Big Brady highlights Lee's power and finishing ability, noting his quick finishes on Road to UFC. He thinks Yi Zha is uncomfortable on the feet and will be knocked out. He predicts a first-round knockout for Lee.

Cody picks Yi Zha as an underdog, noting his experience and wrestling advantage. He thinks Lee is untested and may struggle if taken down. He acknowledges Yi Zha's split decision win over Matsushima was controversial, but sees value at +210. He is not confident enough to bet but picks him for the show.

Connor agrees, adding that Korean fighters tend to cut weight well and Lee is a big, solidly built featherweight. He notes that Yi Zha's wrestling is aimless and lacks physicality, and that Lee's size will make it difficult for Yi to get takedowns. He expects Lee to shrug off grappling and land punches consistently.

Paul picks Lee for the show but is not confident. He notes Lee's quick finishes and power, but has many question marks due to lack of tape. He thinks Yi Zha is a guard puller who loses positions, but the line is too high. He prefers to pass on betting.

Zane sees Lee as a prototypical Korean prospect who plants his feet and trades, confident in his ability to land punches while accepting hits. He notes that Yi Zha is a wrestle-grappler with poor athleticism and shot wrestling, and that Lee's size and physicality will allow him to shrug off takedowns and land punches. He believes Lee's takedown defense is sufficient because he is expecting everything.

Big Brady is high on Nakamura's world-class wrestling and knockout power. He thinks Kazama will struggle to take down a wrestler of Nakamura's caliber and will be knocked out early. He predicts a first-round knockout.

Cody picks Nakamura inside the distance, calling him the best prospect on the card. He notes Nakamura's world-class wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He expects Nakamura to take Kazama down and finish, possibly by submission. He also considers a small sprinkle on Nakamura by submission at +800.

Connor agrees, noting that Kazama's insistence on wrestling will play into Nakamura's strengths. He points out that Kazama's bag of tricks may not work against a superior athlete, and that Nakamura has shown rapid improvement. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Nakamura to showcase his development.

Paul picks Nakamura inside the distance, emphasizing his wrestling background and MMA upbringing. He notes Nakamura's ability to strike or grapple, and expects him to knock out Kazama. He thinks Kazama's guard-pulling style will not work against Nakamura's physicality.

Zane highlights Nakamura's rapid improvement and wrestling background, noting that he has become a more aggressive combination puncher with natural instincts for pressuring. He contrasts this with Kazama, who is crafty but not a great athlete and tends to lose wrestling exchanges as fights go on. He believes Nakamura's higher ceiling and athleticism will prevail.

Big Brady sees Park as more dangerous everywhere, especially on the mat, with an 86% finish rate. He criticizes Choi's low volume and thinks Park will get a submission. He predicts a second-round submission.

Cody picks Choi as an underdog, noting his grinding style and ability to stick to a game plan. He thinks Park may be overvalued due to quick finishes against lesser competition. He likes the prop of Park under 2 takedowns on PrizePicks, as he doesn't see Park as a wrestler.

Connor agrees, noting that Park looks like a better athlete and stronger. He highlights that Choi's takedown attempt bounced off his opponent, while Park gets to good positions and completes takedowns. He believes the physical difference will be most pronounced when they tie up.

Paul leans toward Park but is not confident. He notes Park's technique, power, and grappling, but thinks the line is too high. He sees Choi as a grinder who could win by decision, but Park has more ways to win. He prefers to pass on betting.

Zane picks Park because he has found ways to finish fights and has more drive for the kind of fights he wants to have. He notes that both fighters are messy and unathletic, but Park looks stronger and more capable of enforcing his grappling. He points out that Choi bounced off an opponent on a takedown attempt, while Park completes his takedowns.

Big Brady likes Park's cardio, volume, and underrated grappling. He notes Tiuliulin is hittable with poor striking defense and a suspect gas tank. He expects Park to drown Tiuliulin with grappling and eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

Cody picks Tiuliulin at plus money, noting his improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Park is prone to brawling and getting knocked out, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He expects Tiuliulin to land a knockout, especially if Park engages recklessly. He added Tiuliulin at +190.

Connor agrees, highlighting Park's ability to use aggression against Tiuliulin, running him into jabs and countering. He notes that Tiuliulin is heavily rooted and lumbering, making takedowns easier once Park establishes his jab. He has faith in Park's ability to figure out these matchups despite the physical disadvantages.

Paul picks Tiuliulin, calling him a greasy underdog. He notes Tiuliulin's power and improved takedown defense, while Park has a tendency to brawl and get knocked out. He expects Tiuliulin to win by knockout, especially if Park engages in a firefight. He likes the plus money.

Zane expects Park to win due to his crafty striking and excellent ground and pound. He notes that Tiuliulin is a reckless, aggressive striker who is hyper durable but lacks structure. He believes Park's takedowns and positional grappling will be effective, though he acknowledges that Park often faces physical challenges due to size disadvantages.

Big Brady sees Taira as a massive favorite with a huge reach advantage and superior striking. He expects Taira to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Aguilar, noting that Aguilar's only loss came by submission. He predicts a second-round submission win.

Cody picks Taira inside the distance, noting his elite grappling and ability to take the back. He thinks Aguilar is reckless and makes mistakes, and Taira will capitalize with a submission. He expects the fight to end in the first or second round, likely by rear-naked choke or armbar.

Connor agrees, noting that Aguilar is a physical force but that Taira's positional dominance and grappling will take over. He points out that Taira has shown patience and poise in critical situations, and that Aguilar's wild style will lead to grappling exchanges where Taira is superior. He also comments that the odds are too wide.

Paul picks Taira inside the distance, emphasizing his superior grappling and fight IQ. He notes Aguilar's tendency to give up his back and make mistakes. He expects Taira to dominate on the ground and finish with a submission, likely in the first two rounds.

Zane picks Taira despite acknowledging that Aguilar is a tough, aggressive fighter who could surprise him on the feet. He notes that Taira has shown durability and excellent grappling, with tight positional control and the ability to survive dangerous positions. He believes Aguilar's tendency to force grappling exchanges will play into Taira's strengths.