Career Averages - Tatsuro Taira
Career Averages - Jesus Aguilar
Tatsuro Taira
Jesus Aguilar
Tatsuro Taira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 2 | 131 of 209 | 62% | 190 of 269 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 55 of 151 | 36% | 100 of 199 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 10:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 20 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 1 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 47 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 19 | 26% | 16 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 1 | 57 of 89 | 64% | 64 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 16 of 51 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 4 | Joshua Van | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 31 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 41 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 | |
| 5 | Joshua Van | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 131 of 209 | 62% | 118 of 195 | 12 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 104 of 173 | 9 of 10 | 18 of 26 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 55 of 151 | 36% | 45 of 131 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 43 of 131 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joshua Van | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 16 of 26 | 61% | 12 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Joshua Van | 21 of 32 | 65% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 19 | 26% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joshua Van | 57 of 89 | 64% | 54 of 85 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 41 of 68 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 17 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 14 of 49 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Joshua Van | 19 of 37 | 51% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 13 of 34 | 38% | 10 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 5 | Joshua Van | 27 of 38 | 71% | 18 of 29 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 7 of 23 | 30% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-170), Van (+142)
Round 1
They say a champion is only truly a champion when they successfully defend their title. Van (16-2, 9-1 UFC) earned it in December by forcing Alexandre Pantoja to snap his arm during a post when Pantoja defended a takedown. His first test as a beltholder will be once-beaten Taira (18-1, 8-1 UFC), who may have the edge on the mat and is currently the betting favorite. Referee “Shaolin” Vitor Ribeiro will issue instructions, standing back as the flyweights touch ‘em up.
Taira gets right behind his jab, bouncing in and out to score a hard low kick. Taira sets up another low kick, and he shoots after it with a deep double-leg entry. These Japanese fighter peels Van away from the cage and wrenches him down with a body lock, landing in a dominant position he uses to climb into full mount. Fans start raining down boos as Taira resides on top, and Taira ignores them all to smother the champ. Van bucks to get some space, and he recovers back to half guard thanks to a butterfly hook he sneaks in. Van uses his legs to push Taira away, only for Taira to practically step over to side control like he was in a day-one BJJ course. Van muscles his way back to his feet, finding that Taira wraps up a guillotine choke on him to keep him down. Van shrugs it off to stand, and he walks the Japanese fighter down to punch him square in the face.
Both men land flush jabs on the other, and Taira gathers himself to connect with a heft y low kick. Van slowly, calmly works forward, snapping the head back with a jab. Taira races forward to complete a takedown, putting Van’s seat on the floor and back to the cage. Taira prefers at this point to maintain control rather than inflict damage, so Van is able to wall-walk back to his feet practically uncontested. Taira leans on Van and yanks him to the floor with a body lock, stepping into full mount in seconds. Van sits up, and Taira forces him back down and misses with an elbow. When Van stands, Taira lashes out with punches. Van strikes back from up close, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 2
The flyweights rush towards one another to start off the round, and when they reach striking range, they bounce backwards simultaneously. Van is the one who opts to push forward, and he fights off a faked takedown entry. Taira puts a one-two and a jab on the nose, offering a half-hearted shot and then a strong one after. Taira switches quickly from a double to a single, and they jostle one another around with Taira thumping his man in the sternum with a knee. Van stands up him with fast, powerful hands, and Taira’s face starts to glow red. Van chases after Taira, whose hands are down, and he rocks him with a right hand. Taira has to circle away to regain his composure, and he darts in to strike but Van is out of the way. Taira times an advancing Van to take him off his feet, and he climbs to mount practically the moment they hit the mat.
Van bucks and wriggles to break out of the mount position without absorbing any damage, but he remains stuck on his back as Taira smothers him and reapplies mount. Taira rides the champion like a bucking bronco, getting pulled back to half guard when Van keeps active off his back. Van hacks away from his back, and he appears to be the only one attacking with anything of note. Van sits up and finds himself in choke danger, shucking off the choke to explode back to his feet. Taira stands tall and is about to rush after a takedown, only for Van to knock him clean off his feet with a right hand. Taira hits the deck, and Van leaps down after him in hopes of finishing the job. He cannot, and Taira makes it to Round 3 and wobbles back to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 3
Brimming with confidence, Van stalks down the challenger and jabs his way in. Taira shoots for a desperate takedown, and Van shoves him to the floor and lets him stand back up so he can do work on the feet. Van no-sells a takedown shot and puts his fists in Taira’s face repeatedly. Taira gets his bell rung with a three-punch combo ending with an uppercut, and he throws back single strikes but is nowhere near as fast as his opponent. Taira’s takedown shot fails again, and Van rails him with an overhand right and a left to the liver. Taira circles out to reposition himself in the center of the cage, and his nose gets blooded up by the champ’s jab. Taira throws a calf kick and rushes for a takedown, but he sprints face-first into a flush but questionable knee that rocks him to his core. Taira’s nose bleeds from both nostrils, and he takes a quick count of his teeth and rebounds off the cage wall to swing back. Van beats him to the punch figuratively and literally with speedy combinations, an effective jab and a constant pace. The jabs of Van knock Taira to his seat, who looks around confused but is still in the fight.
Taira tries for a takedown to get his wits about him, so Van turns it against him and slings him to the floor like a side of beef. Van, rather than going after a ground-and-pound finish, slips around to take the back and hunt for a rear-naked choke. Van settles on a neck crank, and Taira steels himself to survive it. Van reapplies the crank, and once more, Taira toughs it out. Van’s third try slips his arm beneath the neck, and the rear-naked choke is tight and appears academic. The Japanese challenger somehow wills himself back into the fight, working out of the choke danger and twisting to work to his feet. Van has no issue with this, as he continues beating three shades of something into Taira’s face. Blood pours from several places around his visage, but he still wants the takedown. He shoots and completes the takedown, and on Van’s return to his feet, Taira hits a mat return. Van gets out of this as well, and Taira walks him down and busts him in the nose. The horn sounds, with Taira surviving after that onslaught.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Van
Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and the flyweights are ready to fight again. Taira nails his opponent with a stern calf kick that draws a big reaction out of the champ, and he uses his momentum to rush forward and grip hold of a body lock to chuck Van to the mat. Van on his back uses his butterfly guard to keep Taira from moving to a dominant position. Van looks for a sweep, and Taira lowers himself flat to slip into full mount again. Taira pummels Van with his shoulder from above, and he stops Van from turning to the side by clubbing him with his free right hand. Van tries to buck and kick, but Taira transforms himself into a 125-pound lead weight.
Van sits up, and Taira throws his legs up to grip hold of a triangle armbar. Van wriggles free and stands back up, and he motions for Taira to follow him. Taira obliges him and gets behind his jab, but Van nails him in the nose a few times to force blood to flow some more. Taira slaps himself in the face a few times after absorbing damage like Curly from the “Three Stooges,” and Van stays right in front of him putting fist to face. Taira kicks low and high, reaching behind his long jab to chain them together. Taira runs face-first into the ground when going after a takedown, avoiding a knee that Van has ready for him by a margin of inches. Taira grinds on the champ until 10 seconds remain, with Van breaking off and jabbing into a right hand. The fourth round is now over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Van
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 5
The fighters share a smile, having reached the last round. It is jab city when they resume fighting, with Van working his way in behind a right hand. Taira ducks strikes to shoot for a takedown, and he gets stood up when Van’s back hit the wall. Taira tries again, and Van pushes off and lets him have it. Both men trade heavy leather, with Taira ending a combination with another failed shot.
Van rips a few punches to the body, bending the challenger over to open up head shots. The champ stabs out with a front kick to the stomach and hurls a rapid barrage of punches at his adversary until Taira turns to his side and tries to circle out, stumbling all the while. This is apparently enough for Ribeiro to think he should step in. Riberio waves things off, and Taira instantly protests that it was premature.
His cries call on deaf ears, so he throws his mouthguard away in frustration. The result is what it is, as Van has successfully defended his flyweight strap with a fifth-round stoppage, while becoming the first fighter to finish Taira. In his victorious post-fight interview, Van tells former champ Pantoja to heal up so that they can run it back.
The Official Result
Joshua Van def. Tatsuro Taira R5 1:32 via TKO (Front Kick to the Body and Punches)
Angelo picks Joshua Van, emphasizing his striking pressure and volume. He notes Van lands a high number of strikes and has shown takedown defense against wrestlers. He thinks Taira's striking pressure is weak and Van will keep the fight standing. He expresses concern about a possible injury to Van that caused the fight to be moved, but assumes both are healthy. He compares Taira's loss to Brandon Royval as a blueprint for Van.
Angelo picks Joshua Van, citing his incredible volume and takedown defense. He believes Van's striking will be too much for Taira, similar to how Royval beat Taira with volume. He notes that Van doesn't get frustrated when taken down and focuses on getting back up.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his elite back-taking and grappling. He notes Van has been submitted before and Taira has power on the feet. Brady expects Taira to get the fight to the ground and secure a submission, specifically a second-round submission. He acknowledges Van's volume but thinks grappling will decide the fight.
Cody picks Taira, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to take Van down and control him. He notes Taira's improved striking and grappling, and believes he can neutralize Van's volume by wrestling. Cody expects Taira to win by submission or decision, as Van's takedown defense is suspect.
Connor picks Van, emphasizing his faith in Van's game in Taira's area of expertise (striking) over Taira's game in Van's area. He notes Taira's lack of pocket feel, as seen against Moreno, and Van's ability to metabolize takedown threats. Connor believes Van's fight-building style will break Taira down, as Taira has no build-back plan.
Daniel picks Van, agreeing with Cody and Malcolm. He highlights Van's superior striking and ability to defend takedowns, though he notes Taira's back-taking ability and heart. Daniel is confident Van will make the fight his and Taira will have to absorb many strikes.
The host leans toward Taira but does not place a pre-fight bet. He notes Taira's superior grappling and back takes, but Van's dangerous boxing and potential cardio advantage. He prefers to live bet this fight to get more information on Van's takedown defense. He mentions Van +5.5 fight spread as interesting but holds off.
Predicted method: Submission Round 3. Taira's grappling-heavy style (3.12 takedowns per round, 1.6 submission average) poses a clear threat to Van, who has 81% takedown defense but has faced less relentless wrestlers. Van's striking volume (8.84 SLpM) is impressive, but Taira's 2.44 SApM indicates he absorbs few strikes, and his recent KO win over Brandon Moreno shows improved power. Taira's reach advantage (70" vs 65") helps him close distance for takedowns. Expect Taira to mix in takedowns, neutralize Van's striking, and secure a submission or dominant decision.
Jacob is confident in Joshua Van, praising his confidence and athleticism. He thinks Van's takedown defense and cardio will be key, and that Taira will struggle to get takedowns in later rounds. He believes Van will dominate once the takedowns stop working.
Lucrative James favors Tatsuro Taira because he believes the grappling gap is larger than the striking gap at flyweight, and submissions are more decisive than knockouts at this weight class. He notes Taira needs one moment to finish, while Van needs multiple moments. He also cites Van's high fight frequency (5 fights in 13 months) as a potential negative, and Van's chin issues. He predicts Taira by submission.
The host picks Van, believing his defensive grappling has improved enough to keep Taira from dominating. He expects Van to outstrike Taira, work the body, and win on the scorecards. He notes that Taira is dangerous early but Van's pace and striking will be too much in championship rounds.
Paul also picks Taira, citing his grappling advantage and experience in five-round fights. He thinks Taira's takedowns and control will be key, and that Van's slow starts and defensive holes will be exploited. Paul expects Taira to win by submission or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his superior grappling and reach advantage. He notes Taira's ability to secure dominant positions and improved ground and pound. He believes Van's takedown defense against lesser grapplers won't hold up against Taira's explosive entries. He predicts a finish in the second or third round.
Zane picks Van, noting his superior striking and ability to handle takedown threats. He points out that Van has good wrestling instincts and has faced grapplers like Durden and Suraya, defending well. Zane believes Van's fight-building style will break Taira down, as Taira struggles in the pocket and relies on range. He sees Taira's only chance as a submission, but Van's defensive wrestling makes that unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 4:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 18 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 26 of 39 | 66% | 22 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 23 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-142), Moreno (+120)
Round 1
Mark Smith is the referee. Taira opens up with a quick and powerful right hand in what is a largely deliberate opening minute. Taira thinks about a shot, then resets and gets reversed on his takedown attempt. Moreno is on his back with a triangle locked in early. This is bad news for Taira to be trapped in this maneuver so early in the fight. Fortunately for the Japanese prospect, Moreno doesn’t quite have the position he needs to really apply the squeeze. Taira has Moreno stacked and he lifts and slams his foe down. That might have allowed Moreno to adjust the hold and tighten it. Taira seems to be OK with a little more than a minute remaining. Taira tries to fire some punches while in the awkward position. Moreno finally loses the hold in the waning seconds. Taira grabs a front headlock and they separate before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Moreno pumps a jab but Taira answers with an uppercut. Moreno with a low kick and he follows that with a combination, landing a crafty lead hook. Taira drops low for a takedown, but Moreno sprawls effectively and counters. Taira doesn’t give up, and he closes the distance ands a trip takedown moments later. The Japanese prospect takes the back, locks in a body triangle and begins to tee off with ground-and-pound from back control. Taira flattens the former champ out and continues to unload with unanswered punches. Moreno is still moving from the bottom, but Smith has seen enough. As Taira tosses his mouthguard in celebration, Moreno questions if the stoppage might have been premature. It won’t matter, as Taira becomes the first person to finish Moreno in professional MMA competition.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Brandon Moreno via TKO (Punches) R2 2:24
Angelo picks Brandon Moreno, citing his experience, well-rounded skills, and relentless pace. He believes Moreno's striking will be a problem for Taira and that Taira's takedowns are not good enough to keep Moreno down. He notes that Alex Perez outstruck Taira before his knee injury. Angelo is surprised that Moreno is an underdog and considers betting if the odds become favorable.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his elite grappling and control, and believes he will take Moreno down and win rounds. He acknowledges Moreno's striking advantage but expects Taira's takedowns to be decisive. He predicts Taira wins by decision.
Cody picks Moreno, highlighting his experience, durability, and scrambling ability. He notes that Moreno has never been finished as a pro and has fought the best in the division. He believes Taira is not a refined product and relies on getting the back, which Moreno's scrambling will neutralize. He expects Moreno to outwork Taira and win by decision.
Connor picks Moreno, citing his experience and technical edge. He notes that Taira struggles to set up takedowns and relies on opponents overextending, while Moreno has strong wrestling defense and can hit his own takedowns. Connor acknowledges that Moreno sometimes fights stupidly, but even then he has a good chance. He believes Moreno's methodical pressure and straight punches will be effective against Taira's limited striking arsenal.
Daniel picks Taira, impressed by his back-taking ability and heart shown in the Royval fight. He believes Taira's grappling is elite and that Moreno may struggle with it, similar to how Pantoja took Moreno's back. He sees Taira's standup improving and thinks he can win a competitive fight, possibly by controlling rounds with back takes.
Lucrative James favors Moreno on the feet and believes his takedown defense is better than Brandon Royval's, which will help him avoid Taira's grappling. He notes Moreno's preparation with Mikey Musumeci and thinks Moreno's experience in five-round fights gives him an edge in a three-round contest. He expects a close split decision but picks Moreno to edge it.
The host believes Taira will continue his winning ways by putting Moreno in bad positions. He notes that Moreno is not as good a scrambler as Brandon Royval, which will keep him in bad positions for at least two rounds, allowing Taira to win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Moreno's advantages in striking, experience, durability, and cardio. He notes that Taira's only top-tier fight was against Brandon Royval, where he lost and was outstruck. He believes Moreno's leg kicks and scrambling will be key, and he picks Moreno by decision.
The Guru picks Tatsuro Taira over Brandon Moreno, citing Taira's back-taking ability and Moreno's recent decline. He notes Taira's grappling and range striking will be effective in a three-round fight. The Guru predicts a 29-28 decision win for Taira.
Zane also picks Moreno, emphasizing that Taira's takedown entries are telegraphed and that Moreno's wrestling is far superior to Royval's, who still managed to defend takedowns. He notes that Taira's striking is limited to a 1-2 with occasional kicks, while Moreno can apply pressure from range. Zane worries about Moreno's tendency to fight recklessly but believes his advantages in experience and grappling outweigh that risk.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 14 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Park Hyun-sung | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor sees Taira as a developing fighter who has improved his striking, footwork, and clinch work. He believes Taira's reach, submission grappling, and ability to punish opponents at range will be too much for Park, especially on short notice. He notes Park's style relies on bullying smaller opponents, which won't work against Taira's size and skill.
Lucrative James sees Tatsuro Taira as the superior grappler with better back-taking ability and transitions. He notes Taira's impressive performance against Brandon Royval despite the loss, showing heart, cardio, and grappling skill. He believes Taira's youth and training at High Altitude with Cory Sandhagen will lead to improvement. He expects Taira to eventually take Albazi's back and secure a submission in the later rounds, as Albazi has shown vulnerability when giving up his neck or back. He also questions the quality of Albazi's wins, calling his win over Kai Kara-France a robbery.
Zane acknowledges Park's pressure striking and combination punching could trouble Taira, but believes Taira's improved distance management and counter-striking will allow him to punish Park's entries. He notes Park's tendency to fall into grappling exchanges, where Taira is superior. Zane concludes that Park's style is made to take advantage of lesser athletes, and Taira is not that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 0 | 124 of 232 | 53% | 172 of 287 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 2:23 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 42 of 99 | 42% | 80 of 143 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 12:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 3 of 14 | 21% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 29 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 81 of 105 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 18 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 0 | 43 of 74 | 58% | 57 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 1:26 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 124 of 232 | 53% | 114 of 216 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 97 of 203 | 11 of 12 | 16 of 17 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 42 of 99 | 42% | 34 of 91 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 17 of 55 | 30% | 12 of 46 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Royval | 3 of 14 | 21% | 1 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brandon Royval | 56 of 78 | 71% | 54 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 52 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 16 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 5 of 21 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Royval | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 5 | Brandon Royval | 43 of 74 | 58% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 41 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Tatsuro Taira | 14 of 36 | 38% | 12 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-225), Royval (+185)
Round 1
The UFC has chosen well with this all-action flyweight scrap capping off the fight card. Fresh off a revenge win over Brandon Moreno, Royval (16-7, 6-3 UFC) is energized and fully capable of playing spoiler. Taira (16-0, 6-0 UFC) has yet to taste defeat, and his performances continue to dazzle as he works his way up the 125-pound ladder. The two are brought to the middle of the cage by referee Jason Herzog for final instructions, and they gladly bump fists before madness ensues. It’s on with the show. Royval hops in and out searching for an early jab, and he pitches out a high kick to further gauge his range. Royval has another head kick miss, and Taira tests his mettle with a light low kick. Royval connects with a body kick, and Taira changes levels on him. Royval defends with a guillotine choke, and he breaks free of the attempt with his back bouncing off the wall. Royval walks through a right hand to get off his own, and his subsequent head kick efforts continue missing. A straight left from Royval reddens the Japanese fighter’s nose, and he catches Taira coming in with another left hand. Royval kicks the body and spins around, with Taira getting off a right hand. Royval scores another body kick that does not get caught, and he snaps out a one-two to get Taira’s attention. Royval clubs his foe with a left hand, and he gets off another in short order before dancing away to a safe distance. Royval measures and clubs Taira once more with a left, having found its range with it and a body kick. Taira bends over and gets his hair buzzed with a back fist. Two more body kicks from Royval get through, and his jab splits the guard. Taira walks into a pair of punches, and he makes Royval stumble with a short combo and grabs hold of Royval from behind to drag him to the floor. Royval attacks a kneebar as soon as he hits a mat, and he transitions into a heel hook and tugs on it from the other side for an inverted variety. Taira turns but cannot get out of the leg danger, as Royval commits to it by rolling over. Taira slithers away from the submission, and Royval breaks free and darts after him with long punches before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 2
Royval is right in the center of the cage ready to pick up where he left off, and his long punches lead to a step-in knee. Taira threatens with a double, scooping Royval up and pushing off the fence to drag Royval down and take his back. Taira flattens Royval out for a moment, but Royval is a scrambler and he keeps moving any direction he can. Taira secures the body triangle to stifle the former title challenger’s escape attempts, and he slides over to take mount before stretching Royval out further. Royval scoots his way to put the wall behind him, with Taira sitting up and the leg grip still around his waist. Royval hand-fights to defend from a submission, and Taira looks to isolate a choke. Royval rolls over, turning twice until he grabs hold of Taira’s knee to spin him around. Taira further maintains control from behind, with Royval’s efforts in vain. Royval is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Taira sells out for a rear-naked choke. Taira turns to the other side to further sneak it in, and Royval is able to stop these attempts for the time being. Royval sits back down with Taira holding an unorthodox grip around his shoulder, and he uses it to put Royval on his back and reassume mount. Royval spins around to escape the first bad position, and Taira deftly slides through to get his back and shut Royval down by getting in half guard. Royval attacks a leglock, forcing Taira to stand up and pull his leg away. Royval works back to his feet in the waning seconds, and one body kick is all he gets off before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 3
Fists are bumped to get going, and a more tentative Royval gets countered over the top with a left hand. Taira reaches him with another left hook over the top, and Royval slugs him in the chops with a right hand. A straight left from Royval finds its home on the jaw, and he lands another few punches and a knee when Taira shoots for a takedown. Royval defends the double with several elbows to the side of the head, and he stands Taira up with a sharp knee. Royval breaks out of the attempt and goes wild with a flurry of strikes, shaking Taira up briefly. Taira’s recoverability is excellent, as he does not back up and instead stays just out of range. Royval bears down on him with a long left and an uppercut, and his uppercut clips Taira again when Taira tries to strike back. Royval gets energized by landing flush, hurting Taira with a flurry of fists. Taira shoots desperately for a takedown when he gets hurt with a salvo from “Raw Dawg.” Taira’s takedown is used against him, as Royval throws him to the mat and works on him with hammerfists. Royval thwarts another attempt, and Taira is fading fast as the woodchipper in Royval is on him chewing him up with punches and knees. Taira goes after another takedown, and it is not effective as he ducks face-first into a clean knee. Taira drops to the mat, and Royval follows him and beats on him with hammerfists on either side of the head. Taira tries to move, and Royval circles around to take Taira’s back and get hooks in. Royval searches for an armbar, rolling to his bell to lock it down, and Taira miraculously fights his way out of the sub and turns Royval around to get his back. Taira fastens the body triangle and starts hunting for his own submission. A rear-naked choke from the Japanese youngster sneaks around the jaw of his foe, and Royval decides to punch instead of fighting the hands. Royval grits it out and survives to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval
Round 4
Royval is fired up after his corner very loudly and dramatically informs him that he needs to crush this kid. Taira is not about to go down lightly, and the two flyweights meet in the center of the cage and trade hands violently. When Taira gets stung, he shoots in for a takedown. Royval balances thanks in part to a fence grab, although Taira still wrests him to the mat. Taira gets his hooks in and locks down the body triangle, with Royval pulling off the fence to try to spin himself about. Taira hunts for a choke, and Royval fights the body lock and turns to his knees. Taira’s body lock remains firmly around the midsection even sitting upright, and Royval rolls but is still snared in the web. Taira softens him up from behind with punches as Royval keeps turning, and he lands an elbow as he moves from position to position. When absorbing one particularly fierce elbow, Royval turns to his stomach, and he uses two-on-one control to wriggle himself out. Taira’s savvy back control further nullifies “Raw Dawg,” and he lets Royval roll to his back to get the body triangle again. Royval fights it off on one side, but Taira fastens it on the other. When the 10-second clapper sounds, Royval sits up and is near to escape, but time expires before he can. It could be all tied up now.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 5
With five minutes left in the fight very likely even on the scorecards, Royval strikes first in the final round. Connecting with four or five early punches, Royval is forced to sprawl to stop a level change. Taira walks into a few punches after Royval stands up, and he reaches with a right but gets clubbed with an uppercut. Royval reaches out with a left hand, and he snipes Taira coming in with a few punches. Royval eats a pair of lefts to get driven back, and he slips in an uppercut. Taira swings a right hand into a takedown, and he puts Royval on his seat with three and a half minutes left in the round. Taira moves to north-south position with Royval pushing his heels off the fence to flip around. Taira nearly gets the back, but Royval reverses the position and pursues his own takedown to place Taira on his seat. Royval holds on from behind as Taira stands, and he elevates and slams the Japanese fighter down. Royval jumps on the back as Taira gets to his feet again, and slides off in a hurry. Taira breaks the grip and separates, and Royval walks him down and bloodies his foe’s nose. Taira loads up on power strikes, and Royval’s straight left remains a money punch. Royval seems to land cleanly whenever he wishes, and Taira dives after a desperate single but Royval stops it and knees his foe in the chest. Royval breaks free again and rails Taira with a step-in knee, and Taira knocks him back with a big right hand. Royval gets back in his face with a series of punches, and he gets pushed over when spinning back. Taira shoots for a double, and Royval jumps guard with a guillotine choke that he uses to roll into full mount. Royval sits up and lets Taira turn over to take his back, and he snatches up a rear-naked choke. Royval gets the body triangle at the same time, and he cranks on the neck. The neck crank does not get a tap, and tough as nails Taira survives to turn himself over. The final horn blares, and this back-and-forth battle comes to a close in an easy “Fight of the Night” candidate and one possibly worthy of “Fight of the Year” consideration. No matter who picks up the win, these two put on a show and stamp their places in the elite echelon of the 125-pound division.
Springing the upset, Royval showers his defeated opponent with compliments, while saying that he would be happy to do anything to further Taira’s career—a fighter that he confidently proclaims will be a champion one day. Royval states he alone deserves the next title shot at flyweight, due to wins over top-five talents Brandon Moreno, Kai Kara-France and now Taira. He asks to be backup for the Alexandre Pantoja-Kai Asakura championship bout, or offers to fight in hostile territory to beat either man in their home country after UFC 310. If he gets the next crack at gold, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Royval (48-47 Royval)
The Official Result
Brandon Royval def. Tatsuro Taira via Split Decision (47-48, 48-47, 48-47)
Angelo picks Brandon Royval, calling himself a Tatsuro Taira hater. He notes that Taira is undefeated but hasn't beaten top competition, and that Royval's pressure and experience will be too much. He mentions Royval's win over Brandon Moreno and his ability to land strikes even when taken down. Angelo bet half a unit on Royval at +170 and is also considering a plus 5.5 bet.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by decision. He notes that if it were a three-round fight, he'd be more confident, but the five rounds give him pause due to Royval's elite cardio and durability. However, Royval has terrible takedown defense (40%), and Taira's grappling control is elite. He compares it to Royval's fight with Pantoja, where Pantoja controlled him on the ground. Brady believes Taira can get takedowns at will and control rounds, though rounds 4-5 could get interesting. He expects Taira to win at least three rounds.
Cody believes Taira is a believer after his performance against Royval, showing improved striking, timing, physicality, and elite grappling. He notes Taira's ability to take down Royval six times and control him, despite Royval's scrambling and cardio. Cody sees Taira as more polished and refined than Park, with five-round experience and superior competition level. He expects Taira to roll through Park.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Royval's defensive wrestling is nonexistent and that Taira's grappling is a huge advantage. He notes that Royval's recent striking approach is static and ineffective, and that Taira should be able to take him down and control the fight. Connor is confident Taira wins unless he fights poorly.
Daniel acknowledges Taira's immense talent and undefeated record but questions if he's ready for a top-five test at age 24. He notes Royval's proven durability, pace, and experience against elite competition like Moreno and Pantoja. Daniel is tempted by the plus-190 odds on Royval and believes Taira may need to pay his dues first. He emphasizes that Royval gets better as fights progress and that Taira hasn't faced anyone with Royval's relentless pressure.
The host looked for a reason to take Royval as a big underdog but couldn't due to Taira's control and grappling. Royval is more disciplined but will struggle when Taira crashes the pocket and wraps him up. The host is not super high on Taira's chalk and prefers the over 3.5 rounds, but expects Taira to control the majority of the fight via grappling and win on the scorecards.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Taira's striking improvement and elite grappling. He highlights Taira's ability to get to the back and control opponents, and his five-round experience against top competition. Paul thinks Taira wins more often than not even at a sizable favorite price.
The MMA Guru picks Brandon Royval as an upset, citing his scrambling ability, pressure, and durability. He questions Taira's hype, noting close fights with Perez and Shevchenko, and believes Royval can make Taira break in a five-round fight. He expects Royval to win by late-round TKO, as Taira hasn't faced someone as lanky and rangy, and Royval has shown he can hang with top flyweights like Pantoja and Moreno.
Zane picks Taira because Royval's defensive wrestling is terrible and Taira is a good takedown artist with dangerous ground control. He notes that Royval's striking volume is often ineffective and that Taira can find takedowns consistently. Zane believes Royval's only path is if Taira fights terribly, but otherwise Taira should win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 45 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 43 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 41 of 77 | 53% | 22 of 49 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 15 | 31 of 64 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 31 of 66 | 46% | 25 of 57 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 59 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 9 of 23 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 17 of 43 | 39% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 18 of 34 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-185), Perez (+154)
Round 1
The final fight of the evening comes in a rare non-title flyweight tilt, with former title challenger Perez (25-8, 7-4 UFC) coming in on short notice. He will try to hand high-flying unbeaten Japanese contender Taira (15-0, 5-0 UFC) his first pro loss. Action is sure to come from these two fighters, but before it does, they come together in front of referee Herb Dean to hear their final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. While Taira is in the center of the cage, he steps back when a leg kick flies by. He throws one back, and Perez targets his front leg once more. The former title challenger goes after one more kick, and the two end up closed in on one another. Taira tries to set up the Thai clinch, and Perez dirty boxes and fights off level changes until he can break away. Perez sneaks in a knee on the break, and he digs several punches to the body. Taira pushes him away and lines up a power right hand, and Perez ducks and thwacks his front leg wither another two kicks. Taira splits the guard with two punches, and Perez darts at him with three punches, landing the third of them. Taira sticks out a jab and a head kick, and Perez rings his bell with two compact hooks. Perez again crowds him throwing bombs, and Taira gets his head knocked around briefly before disengaging. Taira settles down and jabs a few times, but Perez blasts with a number of uppercuts. Taira aims a knee to the head to break off the clinch, and he keeps his jab flowing. Taira follows one jab with a right hand, and he dodges the counter one-two. Taira rails his man with a sharp uppercut, and he finds another as Perez backpedals. Taira slaps the front leg with a kick, and Perez returns fire with one before charging in to tie him up. Taira cannot hold on, and Perez escapes and darts forward with his hands flying. Taira pushes off and swipes his fingers into the Californian’s eye, and Dean calls time. Perez uses a cloth brought in from the doctor to wipe his eye clean, and Dean goes over to warn Taira. After about a minute, Perez is good to go. Perez swings hard with punches to the body and scoops the Japanese fighter up to dump him on the floor. Taira attempts to sweep, but he settles for standing up and getting away. Perez pushes out a front kick and dodges a head kick as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez rushes out of his corner to invite a glove touch, and it is accepted as Dean warns Taira for outstretched fingers. Perez swings wildly with wide punches, and Taira spins him around with a leg kick. Taira snipes him on the way in with a right hand, and he appears to push off and poke the eye again. Perez complains it was a foul, and Dean calls time and asks for replay to check it. The replay shows the eye poke, and Dean goes over to Taira to give him a hard warning. They start up after around 45 seconds, and Perez re-measures his jab. Taira holds his left hand out and blasts the former title challenger with an uppercut, but Perez pays it no mind and unleashes a series of haymakers to knock Taira back. Taira scores a low kick and lands with his own heavy blows, but Perez lands the heavier of the two and it shows by Taira’s face changing shade. Perez works on the front leg with kicks on the inside and out, and Perez gets stood up on the way back with one coming back his direction. Perez shrugs off an uppercut to lob bombs, and he catches Taira flush and lets the counters graze his cheeks. Taira rushes at him and takes the fight down, and as soon as Perez turns, Taira takes his back while standing. Taira leans to one side in hopes of wrenching Perez down, and he keeps the body triangle tight while softening Perez up.
Taira keeps leaning to one side to tug Perez off-balance, and Perez falls awkwardly when leaning back. As he does, Perez’ right knee figuratively explodes, and Perez lets out a screech of pain as Taira is on top of him. Perez taps the canvas to make sure that Dean is getting involved, and Taira dismounts him and looks on with concern. Perez rolls to his back and writhes in agony, clutching his damaged limb as medical professionals swarm him.
This is an unusual situation because it is not simply a freak occurrence from a strange landing, but rather something Taira set up to target one leg and drag him down in that specific angle. Whether he was intending on causing fight-ending injury or simply moving to a more dominant position, it worked, and Taira moves his stellar undefeated record to 16-0 while passing the largest test of his career. The victorious youngster from Japan shouts on the interview that he is very happy, and he asks for a title shot. He confidently declares that he wants everyone in the flyweight division to line up in front of him, and he will mow them down. When Taira gets back into the cage again, it will likely be in a huge fight at 125 pounds. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Alex Perez R2 2:59 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Angelo picks Alex Perez as an underdog, arguing that Perez has shown he can defend takedowns against elite wrestlers like Muhammad Mokaev. He believes Taira's takedowns are not as good, and Perez has the striking advantage. He notes Perez's recent knockout win and experience. He thinks the plus 170 odds offer value and plans to place a bet.
Cody picks Alex Perez as a plus money underdog, arguing that flyweight fights are always close and Perez is a veteran with a wrestling base, BJJ black belt, and decent striking. He highlights Perez's 82% takedown defense and notes that Taira's wrestling is not good enough to take him down. Cody also points out that Taira struggled with Edgar Chairez, got dropped, and showed questionable cardio, which could be a problem in a five-round fight. He believes Perez's experience and power will take over as the fight goes on.
Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Alex Perez's resurgence and boxing/wrestling advantages but leans toward Taira due to his youth, reach, defensive striking, and opportunistic finishing ability. He notes Taira's incremental development and believes he can get past Perez, possibly by submission. However, he admits it could be a vet lesson and is not fully confident.
Jacob picks Tatsuro Taira, arguing that Perez has been outgrappled by top competition and Taira is more well-rounded than Mokaev. He believes Taira's striking and grappling are superior, and he will set up takedowns with strikes. He thinks Perez's takedown defense won't hold up and Taira will submit him. He is confident and offers to bet openly.
Perez's defensive grappling will shut down Taira's wrestling, which I'm not sold on. In the striking, Perez will dictate the pace with calf kicks to slow Taira and then open up his hands, finishing Taira in the third or fourth round.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Taira is a prospect who may look like a stud one day but the level of competition Perez has faced is far superior. He notes that Perez has been fighting the best in the division for years and is a big-time gatekeeper. Paul acknowledges the risk of Taira getting takedowns and taking the back, but he is still with Cody on betting Alex Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira by TKO. He believes Taira is better technically on the feet than Muhammad Mokaev, and that his grappling is more opportunistic and technical. He notes Taira's ability to take the back, reverse positions, and his good right hand. He thinks Perez may crumble under pressure and that Taira's youth and improvement over his career, plus having more notice for this fight, will lead to a finish. He also mentions the narrative of Taira opening doors for Japanese MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 33 of 43 | 76% | 44 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 | 21 of 24 | 87% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 33 of 43 | 76% | 30 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 34 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 12 of 19 | 63% | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 21 of 24 | 87% | 18 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Carlos Hernandez | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-410), Hernandez (+320)
Round 1
Buried on the prelims is a young man fast on the rise, as 23-year-old Japanese prospect Taira (14-0, 4-0 UFC) looks for win no. 15 at the expense of the speedy Hernandez (9-2, 2-1 UFC). The latter recently picked up a win in June when a slam knockout ended up overturned to a decision thanks to an inadvertent clash of heads on the way down. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, and he kicks off the fight as the 125ers touch gloves. Hernandez is the initial aggressor, pushing the action at least from a movement standpoint. Neither man commit to a strike in the first 30 seconds, until Hernandez paws out with a left hand that sneaks around the guard. Taira responds with a front kick, and Hernandez chases him to the ground. Taira immediately sweeps his opponent, and the resulting wild scramble results in both men getting back to their feet. Hernandez pushes the Japanese fighter against the wall, and he lifts Taira up and attempts to slam him down. Instead, Taira positions himself midair to shift his body weight, and he pushes Hernandez over and lands on top of him. Taira steps over to three-quarter mount briefly, but remains comfortable in half guard so he can control and land sporadic left hands or an elbow. Taira jumps over to full mount, and he looks to hook his left arm around the side of the head while lacing Hernandez’ legs between his own. Taira bails on the arm-triangle choke setup so he can posture up and land shots from on top. Hernandez turns over, and Taira flattens him out and starts fishing for a submission. When that does not come, he starts laying into Hernandez with his fists. Hernandez turns about again, giving up his back, and Taira follows him every step of the way and looks to fasten in a rear-naked choke grip. Hernandez defends it and continues twisting himself around, and Taira drills him with punches any time he has an opening. Taira sits up and blasts Hernandez in the face with an emphatic right hand, and he rides out the remainder of the round on top and lands one more right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 2
The flyweights come together, and Hernandez is again the first to push the pace. Taira smacks him in the temple with a left hand, and he follows with a calf kick. Taira rifles a straight right hand down the pipe, rocking Hernandez down to his core, and
he strings together a chain of punches until Hernandez crumbles to the mat. Taira follows him down, continuing his bombardment of strikes, and Hernandez turtles up on his knees, barely still with it. Smith watches on as Taira beats on him, and he determines that Hernandez is no longer in the fight and waves it off.
This is a big win for Taira, who records his first career knockout in years by lifting himself to a perfect 15-0 as a pro.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Carlos Hernandez R2 0:55 via TKO (Punches)
Cody picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Taira is a legitimate prospect with excellent back-taking skills. Cody points out that Hernandez has poor takedown defense and gives up his back. He thinks Taira will bait Hernandez in, shoot for a takedown, take the back, and sink in a rear-naked choke. Cody acknowledges that Taira will eventually face a tough wrestler but believes Hernandez is not that guy.
Paul picks Tatsuro Taira. He notes that Hernandez's grappling is solid but not elite, and he was submitted quickly by Alan Nascimento. Paul thinks Taira is systematic in getting to the back and finding the choke. He is interested in Taira by submission at plus 120 but is a bit concerned about Hernandez's ability to survive the full 15 minutes. Overall, Paul expects Taira to win by submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 61 of 78 | 78% | 121 of 148 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 1 | 9:53 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 1 | 25 of 38 | 65% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 0:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 27 of 30 | 90% | 36 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:43 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 1 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 57 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 28 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 61 of 78 | 78% | 40 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 20 | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 42 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 25 of 38 | 65% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 27 of 30 | 90% | 18 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 16 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 6 of 10 | 60% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 17 of 26 | 65% | 16 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 22 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tatsuro Taira | 17 of 22 | 77% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Édgar Cháirez | 15 of 21 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-950), Chairez (+650)
Round 1
Thanks in part to some late card rejiggering, highly regarded prospect Taira (13-0, 3-0 UFC) moves his way up the billing. Originally planning on meeting Kleydson Rodrigues, the Japanese prodigy now faces late replacement Chairez (10-4, 0-0 UFC) out of Mexico. The match will take place at a pre-planned 130-pound catchweight, and it will be overseen by referee Herb Dean. It begins with a half-hearted reach of a glove touch try from Chairez, and Taira ignores it so he can get offense going in the form of a chopping leg kick. Chairez gives it back, and chants of “Mexico” rain down in support of the debuting Chairez. Chairez comes up short on another attempt, and he is reached by the man from Japan. The action is largely muted other than occasional kicks from both fighters, with Taira working from both legs. Chairez steps in with a jab as Taira crashes towards him, and when Taira backs off, he continues bludgeoning the lead wheel of his opponent. Taira jabs to force Chairez to backpedal, and he gets kicked off his feet by the Mexican. Chairez gets off a body shot, and he tags Taira with a left hand. Taira wobbles to his seat, and he recovers and moves over to tackle Chairez over to gather himself. Chairez grips hold of a guillotine choke, and it is tight until Taira settles down and drives Chairez back to the corner between the floor and the wall. This allows Taira to threaten with a Von Preux choke, as he keeps Chairez stuck in a bad position. Chairez recognizes the danger, and he releases the grip. Taira slowly and methodically works to pass guard, and Chairez is warned for interlocking his toes in the cage to stifle the pass. Dean slaps and pulls Chairez’ toes out of the links, and he keeps warning Chairez for doing it repeatedly. This foul gets called a few times, but as he is focused on tugging on the links with his big toe, Taira sits on top of him and isolates his left arm to set up a crucifix. Taira elbows Chairez several times, and he is admonished for the angle he uses of the 12-to-6 variety. Taira looks up confusedly at Dean, and he changes his angle of attack until the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Chairez
Round 2
The second round begins with the two combatants getting off kicks on one another. Taira changes levels and shoots in for a takedown, and Chairez jumps guard to grab hold of a guillotine choke. The Japanese fighter easily slides his neck out of the choke, where he moves right to half guard and even takes mount briefly before getting bucked back to guard. Chairez shifts his hips, and Taira times it perfectly to move right into mount. Taira smothers his foe when he willingly moves back to half guard, doing so to pin Chairez down. Taira elbows Chairez on the side of the head with light but effective blows, and he hooks his legs together in an effort to trap Chairez’ right arm. Taira continues working with elbows before transitioning to a straight armlock from the other side of the body. Taira, who steps back into mount, postures up to rain down punches and elbows. With 80 seconds to spare, he hammers Chairez with strikes until Chairez turns and almost gives up his back. Taira slashes down with elbows, hurting his opponent, and he calmly lands strikes from a dominant position. Taira considers an arm-triangle choke, and Chairez sits up and wraps his arms around Taira’s waist to hang on. Taira rolls to his back to lock down a triangle choke, and he elbows Chairez on the dome and tightens it up. Pulling the head down to cut off the blood flow to the brain and hopefully deprive his man of oxygen as well, Taira tries with all his might but cannot get the tap before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Taira
Round 3
The last frame kicks off with kicks. Taira wades his way into a striking exchange, and he gets backed off with a left hand. Taira checks a low kick and throws it back. A right hand from the Japanese fighter sneaks over the guard, and Chairez slings a few punches back his direction much to the delight of the crowd. The undefeated fighter pecks at Chairez with leg kicks, and he ducks a looping left hook in the nick of time. Chairez reaches out with a one-two and a subsequent jab, and he shrugs off a body kick. Taira shoots in for a double-leg takedown, and he plants Chairez on his back without Chairez hunting for a guillotine this time. Taira uses shoulder pressure while in half guard to keep Chairez flat on his back, and he elbows his foe on the ear. Taira grinds his elbow on the forehead and forearm on the throat, as he settles for control over offense as the clock keeps ticking. Fans grow restless as Taira clings to top position, even when he lands the occasional elbow. Taira threatens with a guillotine when Chairez sits up, and Chairez is able to fight it off and get back to his feet. Taira goes after a double, and Chairez pulls guard for a guillotine. Chairez locks his feet together and squeezes with every bit of energy he has left, and he rolls over to secure the mounted guillotine choke. Taira toughs it out, with no plan of tapping out no matter how bad it gets, and time expires before the submission puts him out. The scorecards could be all over the map for this one, depending on the potential assessment of a 10-8 in Round 2 and how the first stanza panned out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Taira (30-27 Taira)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chairez (29-28 Taira)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Taira (29-28 Taira)
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Edgar Chairez via Unanimous Decision (29-27, 29-27, 29-27)
Angelo gives a slight lean to Taira at 50.1%, but he actually bet on Cháirez at +600. He acknowledges Cháirez's solid striking, takedowns, and BJJ, but worries about short notice. He sees Taira's path to victory through grappling and control, but thinks Cháirez is just as dangerous on the ground. The lean is extremely slight, and he encourages viewers to watch tape on Cháirez.
Big Brady picks Tatsuro Taira to win by submission in the second round. He notes that Taira is a well-rounded fighter with underrated striking and slick grappling, especially back takes and submissions. He believes Cháirez will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a finish in the second or third round. He mentions that Cháirez has been submitted before by Jesus Aguilar, whom Taira beat in the first round.
Cody is confident Taira wins but the price is unplayable. He thinks Taira will likely finish Cháirez in the first or second round via submission. He notes Taira's back-taking and submission skills are elite. He considers the under 1.5 rounds at -145 but isn't in love with it because Taira may be patient.
Connor picks Taira because he is a great problem solver who starts fights passively but uses opponent aggression to set up takedowns and submissions. Cháirez is a wild, aggressive fighter who will likely come forward, and Taira excels at countering that aggression. Taira's ability to blast opponents off their feet when pressured makes him a clear winner.
Daniel Levi picks Taira, calling him one of the best Japanese prospects he has ever seen. He praises Taira's ground game, composure, and ability to chain striking to takedowns. Levi respects Cháirez's toughness and his controversial win on Fury FC, but believes Taira's ceiling is much higher and that he is headed straight for the top 15. He notes that the minus-1100 price is prohibitive for betting but still picks Taira to win.
James does not make a clear pick on the winner. He disagrees with Taira being a -1000 favorite, capping him around -500 to -600, but does not see enough value on Cháirez at plus money. He discusses props: he likes Taira by decision at +500 more than the submission prop at -200 to -250, and also considers the KO prop at +700. He ultimately passes on betting the fight due to lack of a strong read.
Taira is a skilled Japanese prospect with a strong submission game, especially the rear-naked choke. Cháirez is aggressive and flashy but will likely be taken down and submitted. The fight should be closer than the odds suggest, but Taira will eventually secure a submission victory.
Paul agrees Taira wins easily. He notes Cháirez is a short-notice replacement with no clear path to victory. He thinks Taira's grappling is far superior. He says the real question is how quickly Taira finishes, possibly in the first or second round.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira, citing his patient top grappling and submission threat. He notes that Cháirez was taken down by Clayton Carpenter on the contender series, and believes Taira's methodical style will lead to a submission. He acknowledges Cháirez's momentum but sees Taira as a different level of grappler.
Zane picks Taira because he is a great problem solver who can take whatever Cháirez gives him and turn it into an advantage. Cháirez is overly aggressive and will likely come forward, which plays into Taira's takedown and positional grappling game. Taira is a huge favorite and should be able to submit Cháirez if he gets taken down.
Jesus Aguilar - Fight History
AJ picks Tsuruya, expecting him to dominate with high-level jiu-jitsu and positional grappling. He notes Aguilar is tough but basic, and Tsuruya's submission threat is real. AJ worries about Tsuruya's cardio but thinks he will either win by submission or decision, with a preference for a rear-naked choke finish.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya (referred to as Ryura), citing his high-level wrestling and control. He believes Luis Guruel (Jesus Aguilar) will fade due to two weight cuts in two weeks and jet lag, and that Tsuruya's takedowns and top control will be decisive. He notes Tsuruya may not score extremely well but is a decent lineup play.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya because he is a very good wrestler with great control and cardio. He notes that Luis Gurule just fought a full 15-minute war and is flying across the world, which will not help his cardio. Rei's only loss is to the current world champion Joshua Van.
Angelo picks Rei Tsuruya, trusting his wrestling control and ability to get the fight to the ground. He notes that Luis Gurule has been taken down many times before and still won, but he doesn't think that will happen here. He also questions Gurule's ability to perform after a short turnaround and travel. He believes Tsuruya's top control and cardio will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Rei Tsuruya by decision, noting Aguilar took the fight on short notice after fighting a week ago and absorbing over 100 significant strikes. He believes Tsuruya's wrestling and grappling are superior, and he will attempt many takedowns, similar to the Pichinin fight. He acknowledges Aguilar would be a live dog with a full camp but the circumstances favor Tsuruya.
Cody picks Tsuruya, citing his youth, back-take specialist skills, and the favorable circumstances. He notes that Tsuruya was supposed to fight Jesus Aguilar, who beat Gurule, but now faces a short-notice opponent who just fought two weeks ago and is moving up to 135. Cody believes Tsuruya's takedowns and control will be effective, and Gurule's fatigue and travel will work against him.
Levi picks the underdog Aguilar, noting his anti-wrestling and ability to scramble. He thinks Tsuruya's standup is limited and Aguilar can sprawl-and-brawl to a decision. However, he acknowledges many 'ifs' regarding Aguilar's health and travel.
Jacob picks Rei because he is a relentless wrestler with a lifetime of wrestling experience. He expects Rei to get early takedowns and that Luis's defensive wrestling will drain his gas tank, leading to late takedowns for Rei. He compares it to Rei's fight against Carlos Hernandez.
Lucrative James picks Rei Tsuruya confidently, citing his slick grappling, unorthodox takedowns, and youth (23). He notes Jesus Aguilar's poor takedown defense and believes Tsuruya's creativity and scrambling will lead to a submission. He mentions Tsuruya's training with Cejudo and improvement since his loss to Joshua Van.
The host picks Aguilar on short notice, believing his cardio and scrambling ability will overcome Tsuruya's grappling. He notes Aguilar's experience against good grapplers and his tendency to not settle for bad positions. He expects Aguilar to defend takedowns early, work back to his feet, and land more damage as the fight goes into deeper waters.
The host picks Jesus Aguilar (referred to as 'Guru') over Rei Tsuruya, noting Aguilar's recent win and good grappling defense. He expects Aguilar to stop takedowns and outwork Tsuruya on the feet, winning on the scorecards in the later rounds.
Paul picks Tsuruya, noting his ability to get takedowns and control positions. He mentions Gurule's recent war and short notice, and that Tsuruya is a young prospect. Paul believes Tsuruya can find a submission or at least control the fight.
The MMA Guru picks Rei Tsuruya to win by submission. He notes that Tsuruya is an elite freestyle wrestler with good grappling, and despite Aguilar's dangerous guillotine, Tsuruya is crafty enough to avoid those positions. He believes Tsuruya will get a submission, possibly similar to how Tatsuru Taira submitted Aguilar from a guillotine attempt.
The Guru believes Tsuruya's relentless grappling and fast start will win the first two rounds at a high clip. He notes Tsuruya's takedown volume and scrambling are excellent, while Aguilar has good cardio and could take the third round but likely loses a decision. He thinks Tsuruya wins 29-28 or 30-27.
The Guru picks Jesus Aguilar over Ray Borgia (Rei Tsuruya), favoring Aguilar's experience and aggressive striking. He doubts Borgia's ability to implement his grappling due to limited striking, and believes Aguilar can stuff takedowns and overwhelm Borgia on the feet. He notes Aguilar's submission threat as a bonus.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 62 of 148 | 41% | 69 of 156 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 31 of 106 | 29% | 42 of 120 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 2 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 19 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 10 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sumudaerji | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 31 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 12 of 44 | 27% | 16 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sumudaerji | 62 of 148 | 41% | 44 of 116 | 11 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 55 of 141 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 31 of 106 | 29% | 12 of 63 | 8 of 24 | 11 of 19 | 30 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sumudaerji | 16 of 44 | 36% | 10 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 12 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sumudaerji | 17 of 47 | 36% | 9 of 32 | 6 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 27 | 22% | 1 of 14 | 1 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sumudaerji | 29 of 57 | 50% | 25 of 50 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 12 of 44 | 27% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 12 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mudaerji (-278), Aguilar (+225)
Round 1
The early prelims wrap up with a classic matchup of China vs. Mexico in the flyweight division, as two men trying to build momentum in the currently logjammed division fight it out. Mudaerji (18-7, 5-4 UFC) finds himself on a win streak, while Aguilar (12-3, 4-2 UFC) did get his hand raised in his last time out as well. Gloves are touched before they are traded, with referee Chris Tognoni standing by.
Mudaerji, with a huge reach advantage, looks to take advantage of it with long kicks and even a spinning kick. Aguilar ducks the kicks and crowds his foe with an overhand right, but Mudaerji is out of the way in time. Mudaerji chops at the front leg of his opponent and sways past the looping counters, with Aguilar putting thunder into his hurls that have not connected yet. Mudaerji jams him up with a jump knee that bangs hard into the guard, and Aguilar grabs hold of the lead leg to take the fight down. Mudaerji puts his back to the fence to keep himself upright, and Aguilar grabs the fence to maintain position. Aguilar grinds but cannot get the takedown, and Mudaerji manages to wriggle out and stick out a left hand. When Mudaerji offers out a low kick, Aguilar grabs his cup and Tognoni calls time. They do not need long before resuming, as Aguilar wants to get right back into the thick of it.
Mudaerji walks Aguilar down and boots him in the face, strafing back to not get taken down in response. Mudaerji spins with a wheel kick that pounds into the guard, and Aguilar tanks it and winds up to throw haymakers that only end up with him off-balance. Mudaerji potshots with his range advantage, allowing Aguilar to charge him so that he can peck away. Aguilar scores at the end of a right hand, but his lands are few and far between as he struggles to find his distance. Mudaerji leans back to watch a spinning kick soar past him, and he chews up the front leg with his kicks. Mudaerji splits the guard with a left hand, and Aguilar rushes towards him to take the fight down but falls victim to a counter throw. Mudaerji climbs on top with 25 seconds to go, landing a strike or two while backing off to stop a counter takedown. Both men stand up, and Aguilar charges recklessly to partially land a few blows before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Round 2
Aguilar is all smiles between rounds, pacing back and forth until he can go after the taller man again. They touch gloves, and he backs off rather than engaging. This allows Mudaerji to pick and poke away with jabs, follow-up left hands and kicks to anywhere he feels like striking. Aguilar is miles away from getting to him on the counter, and Mudaerji keeps him guessing by cracking him with check right hooks. Aguilar gets off a single inside low kick, but it is one-and-done as Mudaerji revs up his volume again. Aguilar tries to take the fight down, and the Team Alpha Male rep chucks him to the floor like a side of beef. Mudaerji thwarts the sweep attempts to keep Aguilar on his back, smacking him with the occasional offensive burst but otherwise sticking the shorter man on his back.
Aguilar looks for butterfly hooks in hopes of pushing Mudaerji off of him, and he hacks with elbows off his back to stay busy. Mudaerji gets pushed off just enough so that Aguilar can explode back to his feet, where the Mexican gets to chasing the lanky flyweight down and missing with winging hooks. Mudaerji is easily able to parry and stick him with straight lefts and jabs, and he just misses on an intercepting uppercut. Mudaerji backs off Aguilar with his punches and plants a knee on the jaw, and he tries to follow with a head kick and stumbles. Mudaerji climbs back up and is chased down, and he grabs hold of Aguilar’s ankle and pulls him to the floor as the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji
Round 3
A glove touch opens the final round, with Mudaerji standing firm and putting punches on the Mexican athlete right out of the gate. Aguilar strikes back, but his momentum is used against him as Mudaerji throws him to his back. Mudaerji lashes out with an elbow and nearly gets a back take while Aguilar scrambles, and he sweeps the leg to set Aguilar back down again. Aguilar hacks with elbows to the side of the head, leading to Mudaerji stepping over to sit on his face. Aguilar scrambles to his knees, and Mudaerji gladly takes his back and sucks him back down to the floor. Mudaerji ends up sliding off the back as he does not have a hook in, and Aguilar gets back to his feet and breaks off to belt Mudaerji in the face with a right hand. Mudaerji backs off, and Aguilar lines up another. Mudaerji gets some space, and he rifles off a left hand that makes Aguilar take a quick count of his teeth. Aguilar is swinging for the fences, and while he has found his range to a degree, Mudaerji is still able to shoulder-roll or otherwise take most of the sting out of the blows.
Mudaerji dances away from a low kick and lets loose a knee, but this is poorly timed as Aguilar tackles him to the mat. Mudaerji wraps up Aguilar’s shoulder to work himself upright, and he pushes Aguilar back and rushes to his preferred range. Mudaerji stabs a kick to the body and pops Aguilar with a combination, with Aguilar relying on head movement as his hands are low. Aguilar crowds his way forward to tie the Chinese athlete up, and Mudaerji answers with standing tomahawk elbows to the mouth. Mudaerji frames off with an elbow to the jaw, and he slashes open the bridge of the nose and spins with a flush kick to the body. Aguilar bites down on his mouthpiece and swings with everything he has, and Mudaerji decides to engage him in a slugfest. Mudaerji busts up Aguilar and eats some shots on the way back, and Aguilar stumbles and regathers himself to trade leather right to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Mudaerji (30-27 Mudaerji)
The Official Result
Su Mudaerji def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo acknowledges that Sumudaerji is the better striker with laser accuracy, but Jesus is gritty and tough. He notes Jesus has a clear grappling advantage but his takedowns are poor. He goes with his gut, picking the dog Jesus to make it ugly and stay in Sumudaerji's face, negating his footwork.
Big Brady picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as an underdog over Sumudaerji. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with a 4-inch height and 9.5-inch reach advantage, but has been submitted six times and can be hurt. Aguilar has improved striking, good wrestling (1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes), and next-level durability. Brady believes Aguilar can get the fight to the ground and submit Sumudaerji, predicting a third-round submission.
Cody also picks Sumudaerji, highlighting his length and striking. He notes Aguilar's difficulty closing distance and lack of wrestling. He expects Sumudaerji to win by decision or knockout.
Connor picks Sumudaerji hesitantly, citing his significant height and reach advantage. He notes that Aguilar is a submission threat and that Sumudaerji has been submitted six times due to his aggressive grappling. However, he believes Sumudaerji can win at range and that Aguilar's style is less effective against a long fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jesús Santos Aguilar as a plus-230 underdog, citing Sumudaerji's history of being submitted and Aguilar's opportunistic guillotine. He believes Aguilar can make the fight dirty and drag Sumudaerji into a grappling exchange. Vreeland acknowledges Sumudaerji's striking advantage but sees value on the dog.
The host believes Sumudaerji should win easily due to his rapid improvement, technical striking, length advantage, and improved takedown defense. Aguilar is smaller, one-dimensional on the feet, and Sumudaerji should keep the fight standing and light him up. The host is considering using Sumudaerji in a parlay but notes he already has a big bet on Max Holloway.
James picks Sumudaerji, citing his higher level of competition and superior striking. He believes Sumudaerji's accuracy and sharpness will outpoint Aguilar, who relies on power and guillotine submissions. James notes that Aguilar's path to victory is narrow, requiring a takedown and guillotine, which Sumudaerji is prepared to defend. He predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji.
Sumudaerji is a superior striker with a 10-inch reach advantage. He can stick and move, counter Aguilar effectively, and defend takedowns. Aguilar will struggle to close distance and likely lose a decision. Sumudaerji by decision at +210 is a good prop, and he's a solid parlay piece.
Paul picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach advantage and improved takedown defense. He notes Aguilar's wins are over low-level opponents. He expects Sumudaerji to keep the fight at range and win by striking.
The MMA Guru picks Sumudaerji, citing his reach and height advantage. He notes Sumudaerji's ability to outstrike at range and his recent win over Mitropoulos. He believes Aguilar lacks the finishing power to trouble Sumudaerji, predicting a decision win.
Zane picks Aguilar as a lean, noting that Aguilar keeps surprising him by winning fights he seems to be losing. He highlights Aguilar's athleticism and ability to scramble out of bad positions. He is concerned about Sumudaerji's reach but thinks Aguilar's physicality and submission threat could be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 85 of 235 | 36% | 87 of 237 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 65 of 186 | 34% | 73 of 195 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 12 of 49 | 24% | 12 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 20 of 65 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 20 of 64 | 31% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 30 of 97 | 30% | 32 of 99 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 39 of 80 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 85 of 235 | 36% | 35 of 164 | 25 of 43 | 25 of 28 | 76 of 224 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 65 of 186 | 34% | 43 of 157 | 12 of 18 | 10 of 11 | 59 of 174 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 35 of 73 | 47% | 12 of 47 | 12 of 15 | 11 of 11 | 30 of 67 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 12 of 49 | 24% | 5 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 20 of 65 | 30% | 9 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 20 of 64 | 31% | 10 of 51 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 30 of 97 | 30% | 14 of 71 | 10 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 27 of 93 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 33 of 73 | 45% | 28 of 65 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gurule (-220); Aguilar (+180)
Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Aguillar wastes no time firing a big right hand. Aguilar goes on the attack with power punches. A hard leg kick lands for Aguilar, who moves forward behind punches. A solid uppercut lands during that barrage. Aguilar lands a calf kick. Agular puts Gurule on the defensive with a flurry of punches, then follows with a series of knees to the body against the fence. Gurule retreats to the center of the cage. Aguilar rushes forward and finishes a combination with a knee to the gut. Gurule counters a low kick with a right hand. guilar with a low kick, but Gurule answers with a combination. Aguilar jabs the body. A right gets through for Gurule. Gurule moves forward with a long combination this time, and Aguilar answers with a takedown. Gurule returns to his feet and breaks free. Aguilar with a straight right to the body. Gurule fires a jab. Aguliar looks to clinch but Gurule shucks him off. Gurule lands a kick to the body. Aguliar puts the pressure on and lands a knee in the clinch before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 2
Aguilar gets an uppercut through his foe’s guard. An overhand right leads to the clinch, where Aguilar lands a knee in close. Gurule jabs the body, then moves in with a combination. Gurule lands the front kick to the body again. Another low kick lands for Aguilar. A counter left hook lands clean for Aguilar. Aguilar connects with a left hook in an ensuing exhange. Gurule continues to go back to the front kick. Aguilar lands a solid calf kick. Gurule blocks an overhand. Agular with a kick to the body, then avoids a counter offering from Gurule. Gurle jabs, then shucks off a takedown try from his opponent. Gurule lands a body kick. The pace is more methodical this round, which seems to favor Gurule. Aguilar kicks the leg then goes upstairs, but it’s blocked. An overhand by Aguilar doesn’t get through. Gurule lands a lead hand to the body. Aguilar changes levels and gets in deep on a takedown, but Gurule somehow defends it. Aguilar with an inside leg kick, and Gurule lands a right hand before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Gurule
Round 3
The fight could be up for grabs in this round. Aguilar forces the action early, and he lands a combination. Gurule ducks a high kick, but an ensuing spinning kick to the body lands for the Mexican. Gurule punctuates a punching combination with a body kick. Aguilar makes Gurule buckle with a jab and drops him with a shovel hook. Aguilar tries to jump for a guillotine, but Gurule shoves him to the floor and tees off with ground-and-pound. Gurule works to the back, but Aguilar scrambles up. Gurule goes back to the front kick to the body. They clinch briefly, then separate. Gurule grabs a leg then lets it go to land a power shot. Gurule counters a low kick with a two-punch combination. Aguilar moves forward and lands a knee in the clinch. A right from Gurule lands clean. Aguilar swings wildly and makes Gurule move back with a left. Aguilar lands a knee in close and then a jab as he slides back. Aguilar goes low kick high kick. Augilar with another aggressive combination, and he snaps Gurule’s head back. Gurule lands some powerful punches of his own. Aguilar lands a couple jabs then shoots for a takedown. He spins to the back, but Gurule frees himself and the flyweights fire off offense in one last wild exchange before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Aguilar)
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Luis Gurule via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luis Gurule, noting he is a light-on-his-toes striker with forward pressure and decent power. He says Jesus Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but is a one-trick pony. He thinks everyone knows Jesus is looking for the guillotine, so if you expect it, you can avoid it. He calls Jesus a very good dog and says he'll probably try to find a prop bet like win inside distance or decision no action for Jesus.
Big Brady picks Gurule as the much more well-rounded fighter with better striking and wrestling. He notes Aguilar's only threat is the guillotine, and if Gurule watches his neck, he should dominate. He predicts Gurule wins by decision, keeping the fight standing and picking Aguilar apart.
Despite Gurule's previous knockout loss, the host sees this as a winnable matchup. He believes Aguilar's power shots are telegraphed, allowing Gurule to avoid danger, apply pressure, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks underdog Jesus Aguilar, disagreeing with Gurule being a -200 favorite. He notes Aguilar's stocky, dangerous style and ability to trouble opponents, citing his KO of Shannon Ross. He sees Gurule as unproven in the UFC, coming off a KO loss, and believes Aguilar has shown more ability across distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 60 of 96 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 9:22 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 35 of 87 | 40% | 41 of 95 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 23 of 28 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 29 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 33 of 81 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Estevam | 11 of 30 | 36% | 6 of 20 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 35 of 87 | 40% | 26 of 75 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 31 of 76 | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Estevam | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafael Estevam | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rafael Estevam | 8 of 26 | 30% | 4 of 17 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 28 of 75 | 37% | 21 of 65 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Estevam (-360), Aguilar (+285)
Round 1
A pair of fighters separated by about five months and five inches of height come to blows in the on-fire flyweight category. While he debuted with a win over Charles Johnson, inactivity has plagued Estevam (12-0, 1-0 UFC) as that victory came in November 2023 and he has not fought since. Since then, Aguilar (11-2, 3-1 UFC) has competed and prevailed on two separate occasions, giving him momentum leading up to their engagement. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes the sporting clap of hands from the fighters to get going. Aguilar says hello with a low kick, and he charges in with a looping left that allows him to close the distance. Estevam defends the throw setup and prevents Aguilar from tossing him, but the ensuing grappling results in Estevam somehow taking Aguilar’s back. The two jockey for position and threaten with submission setups, and Aguilar sells out for a takedown and winds up pulling Estevam on top of him instead. Estevam smothers from half guard, staying well busy enough to stave off Tognoni. The Brazilian fighter loops his foe’s legs beneath his to further trap him, but Aguilar still times an explosion to power back to his feet. Aguilar grabs hold of a guillotine choke and jumps for it, and he hooks his leg around the back but is unable to fasten the other. “Macapa” calmly works his way out of the sub and he remains on top, following Aguilar every time he tries to scramble. When Aguilar gets to his feet, Estevam has him from behind, and he hunts for a high back ride to drag his man down. Aguilar tries to shoot in, but Estevam controls him until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 2
Aguilar comes out of his corner like his hair is on fire, with a pair of looping hooks leading into a jump knee. Estevam catches the latter and tries to do something with it, but he lets it go and dives after a takedown. Aguilar is on his seat when defending it, with Estevam quick to lace the legs once more. Estevam sits up and the two slug it out from a seated position, with Aguilar’s back stuck against the wall as he spams elbows and punches with little on them. Estevam wrestles Aguilar back down and dings him with uppercuts, and every time he opens up, Aguilar fights to escape. Tognoni asks for more activity, and Aguilar stands up. Estevam chucks him back to the mat like a side of beef, and Aguilar climbs up, circles around and jumps for a guillotine choke. Estevam stuffs it and forces a 50/50 position, with Aguilar complaining that his glove is being grabbed. Estevam takes his foe’s back and clubs him in the side of the head, hitting a mat return when Aguilar fruitlessly works his way upright once more. Aguilar clings to any low-percentage move he can search for, while Estevam is running a wrestling clinic on him. Estevam wraps up an arm-triangle choke, and he jumps from one side to the other to complete the maneuver. Aguilar turns to his stomach to prevent the submission from completing, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Estevam
Round 3
Aguilar is the fast aggressor in the last round, putting hooks behind kicks behind more hooks. Estevam slows his foe down with a slew of front kicks, and Aguilar shrugs them off and charges with looping strikes before pursuing a takedown. Estevam shakes out of the tie-up, and Aguilar walks him down kicking him high and low. Aguilar punches his way into a level change, and Estevam stonewalls him and threatens with his own single. Aguilar stifles it, and the two break apart. Aguilar clubs his opponent with power punches that stun him, and he times a perfect knee when Estevam shoots on him. Aguilar lets him up and starts laying into the unbeaten fighter with massive swinging strikes. Aguilar throws himself off-balance, but he has done some solid damage and likely rocked Estevam on at least one occasion. Estevam keeps a stiff upper lip and is ready for counters, but Aguilar’s aggression is starting to give him issues. Estevam just dodges a huge left hook in time, and Aguilar sits down on a low kick and lunges forward with a jab. Aguilar punches his way into a takedown, where he puts Estevam on the mat but does not establish top control. Instead, Aguilar lets him up and punches him a few times, and he lets Estevam shoot so he can defend with a guillotine. Aguilar climbs on the back—an issue plaguing him several times tonight—and slides off almost immediately. Estevam relishes this opportunity so he can slow Aguilar down, with his sights likely more on surviving than actually trying to put Aguilar away. A few more lather-rinse-repeat takedowns and mat returns come from the Brazilian until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar (29-28 Estevam)
The Official Result
Rafael Estevam def. Jesus Santos Aguilar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is confident in Rafael Estevam, noting his high-pressure grappling and relentless takedowns. He acknowledges that Jesus Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but believes Estevam's offensive wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu defense will neutralize that threat. He trusts Estevam's cardio and thinks the odds are appropriate.
Big Brady picks Estevam by second-round submission, citing his dominant wrestling and ground game. Aguilar is a guillotine specialist but has 0% takedown defense and defensive holes. Estevam must be cautious of the guillotine but should get takedowns easily and eventually submit Aguilar.
Estevam is undefeated and this is a great opportunity for him to get back on track. He will get Aguilar's back and find a rear-naked choke finish within two rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Rafael Estevam over Jesus Aguilar, impressed by Estevam's grappling against Charles Johnson. He notes Aguilar has won in the UFC except for his debut loss, but believes Estevam's chain wrestling and ability to manipulate Aguilar's body will secure at least two rounds via grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicoll (-230), Aguilar (+190)
Round 1
In what might become a yearly stop for the UFC, the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, is playing host to the promotion today. Like UFC 284 last year, 2024’s UFC 305 package contains plenty of locals with favorable matchups that could result in some thrilling violence. Nine of the 12 fights tonight feature a competitor from or repping Australia or New Zealand, with one pitting an Aussie against a Kiwi, and the other two seeing a Chinese welterweight take center stage. We kick things off with a classic matchup of Australia vs. Mexico as Nicoll (8-0, 0-0 UFC) introduces himself to the organization with the crowd at his back. He battles the overweight Aguilar (10-2, 2-1 UFC), who hit the scales a pound and a half above the flyweight limit to surrender 20% of his purse to his opponent. The referee for the first fight of the night is Steve Perceval, and he kicks things off as the fighters touch gloves. Nicoll introduces himself with a leg kick effort, and his second is met with counters from the Mexican. Aguilar charges him, swinging fists and ultimately clinching up before suddenly grabbing the Aussie from behind. Nicoll responds with a kimura sweep that puts them both on the mat, and he flips around to take the back of his opponent and get hooks in. Nicoll opens up with powerful punches from both sides of the head, and he briefly flattens Aguilar out as he beats on him. Aguilar gets to his knees and spins himself around to put his back on the mat, and Nicoll does not mind this as he hacks down with elbows. Nicoll knees the belly when he sits postured up, and he lands a few punches but finds himself off-balance. Nicoll gets rolled upside-down, and he finds himself doing a handstand with Aguilar hanging on in an effort to throw him down. When Nicoll recovers, Aguilar jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and it is immediately tight.
Aguilar fastens his legs around the waist of his opponent, and Nicoll tries to slither his neck out but he is bone dry and trapped in a precarious position. Aguilar alerts Perceval that Nicoll may be out, and Perceval tests the resistance of Nicoll’s right arm. It flops to the ground. Perceval lifts the lifeless limb again before he intervenes, and he and Aguilar roll Nicoll to his back to demonstrate that Nicoll is completely unconscious with his eyes eerily stuck open.
Aguilar sits up and lifts the legs of his defeated opponent to flow the blood back to Nicoll’s cranium. Just like that, Nicoll has been ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Aguilar has totally silenced the crowd. It may be disappointing to Aguilar that he has forfeited his opportunity to claim post-fight bonus money by missing weight, as that sleep-inducing submission might have been otherwise worthy of an extra check.
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Stewart Nicoll R1 2:39 via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Stewart Nicoll to win based on his wrestling advantage, believing Nicoll can get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll is a 2-to-1 favorite against a tough opponent in Jesus Aguilar, who is dangerous with guillotines. Angelo notes that Nicoll is undefeated but untested at this level, similar to Danny Barlow last week, so he avoids betting but leans Nicoll.
Big Brady picks Stewart Nicoll to win by second-round submission. He notes Nicoll's wrestling and ground-and-pound are very good, and that Jesus Aguilar has 40% takedown defense and has been submitted in both of his losses. He believes the takedowns will come fairly easy for Nicoll, and once on top, his ground-and-pound can open up submissions. He acknowledges this is Nicoll's toughest test to date but is confident in his path to victory.
Cody is impressed with Nicoll's regional tape, noting his relentless takedowns, top control, and nasty elbows. He believes Aguilar has poor takedown defense and has been controlled by lesser wrestlers. Cody expects Nicoll to dominate and possibly submit Aguilar.
Daniel Vreeland picks Stewart Nicoll to win, expecting him to take Aguilar down and control the fight. He notes that Aguilar has poor takedown defense and low output, while Nicoll has good cardio, strength, and tenacity. Vreeland believes Nicoll will grind out a decision or submission.
The host leans to Nicoll, citing his technical superiority in all aspects of MMA against Aguilar. He notes Nicoll's grinding grappling approach and BJJ black belt, but acknowledges Aguilar's power and guillotine threat. He expects Nicoll to dominate and finish within two or three rounds, possibly by club and sub.
Paul likes Nicoll's wrestling and pace, and notes that Aguilar has been taken down by everyone who tried. He mentions Nicoll's submission threat and expects a finish. Paul calls Nicoll a legit prospect and believes the UFC gave him a favorable matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Jesus Aguilar. He notes that Aguilar is explosive but Nicoll is similarly sized and has a grappling style that pins opponents against the cage, dragging them down and controlling them on the ground. He criticizes Aguilar's wins over Menona and Shannon Ross, calling Ross an easy KO for everyone. He also mentions Nicoll's home country advantage in Australia. He expects Nicoll to control the fight with his grinding style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 4:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 43 of 90 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mendonca (-162), Aguilar (+136)
Round 1
The prelims roll on with the flyweights again, with Tachi Palace Fights vet Aguilar (9-2, 1-1 UFC) aiming to make it two in a row at the expense of the skidding Mendonca (10-2, 0-2 UFC). The Chute Boxe Diego Lima product made it to the UFC courtesy of 10 straight wins, only to run into brick walls of Javid Basharat and Nathan Maness to hand him a pair of losses. The two men with finish rates of 70% or above come together and touch gloves as referee Fernando Salas watches on, and they introduce themselves to one another with kicks. Aguilar kicks low, Mendonca kicks the body and presses all the way forward to scoop Aguilar off his feet. Aguilar fights back to his feet, and he resists a throw and pushes his foe against the fence to knee the thigh a few times. The pace slows to a crawl as Mendonca eventually tries to toss Aguilar to the mat, but he cannot keep him there for more than a second. Aguilar keeps grinding, and Mendonca sells out for a body lock takedown and an outside trip that succeeds in putting Aguilar down. Mendonca shifts quickly to side control, where he resides on top until Aguilar reverses him successful and starts bashing on top. Mendonca briefly threatens with a high guard, and Aguilar shakes out of it and scores some ground strikes while stacking Mendonca up. Mendonca hunts for a triangle choke, and Aguilar slams his way out of it at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 2
The second round opens tentatively, with both men pawing at one another from a safe range. Mendonca suddenly crashes the pocket and pursues a takedown, where he leverages Aguilar down to the mat. After some control time, Mendonca loses top position and Aguilar slings him down. The two scramble wildly, and Mendonca manages to take the back and start hunting for the neck. Aguilar turns to put his back against the fence, and Mendonca clings to him and bowls Aguilar over to move to half guard. The Brazilian practically jumps into full mount, and he unleashes a fury of right hands as Salas watches closely. Aguilar turns to his side and nearly gets pounded out, but he ends up surviving the assault and defend himself intelligently enough all while the crowd implores him to keep fighting. Aguilar jumps back to his feet with sheer force of will, and Mendonca tries to snatch up a guillotine choke. Aguilar pulls out of it, and he starts slugging. Aguilar hurts Mendonca in an exchange, and he shoots for a takedown instead of taking advantage of the damage. Aguilar relocates himself into full mount, and he starts slashing down with elbows. Aguilar postures up and smacks Mendonca around with strikes, and lowers himself down so as to not create openings to escape. Aguilar looks for more offense, and Mendonca use the moment to fight his way back to his feet. Mendonca shoots in from too far away, and Aguilar shoves him over and starts landing punches all while Mendonca elevates him. The frantic round ends with Aguilar in the air getting flipped over by his opponent.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 3
Aguilar swings for the bleachers to start off the round, and as Mendonca counters with a kick, Aguilar sprints towards him and knocks him over. On the way down, the Mexican snatches up a guillotine choke, and he tries to lock it down with full mount. By the skin of his teeth, Mendonca survives the submission and pushes Aguilar over, and he slides on top to move to half guard. Mendonca smothers from top control, opening up every so often to land a short right hand. Aguilar looks to hip escape or at least scoot himself to the fence, and Mendonca stifles him until Salas stands them up. Aguilar thanks the referee by going right to offense, swinging hard and stinging Mendonca. Mendonca throws back, and Aguilar answers with a level change. Mendonca uses the body lock to turn Aguilar around and chuck him to the mat like a basket of dirty laundry. A wild scramble ensues, and both men briefly take top position, until Mendonca winds up getting back control. Aguilar has one arm held tightly by his opponent, allowing Mendonca to drill him with punches from the free hand on the other side. Mendonca wraps up the body triangle and aims for the neck with a choke, and Aguilar hand-fights to stop the choke attempt. Mendonca allows Aguilar to turn so he can shift to full mount, but before he can rain down shots, Aguilar turns over. Mendonca locks down an unorthodox triangle choke as Aguilar does this, but time expires before anything comes of it. Based on previous tallies so far tonight, scorecards could be all over the map here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
The Official Result
Jesus Aguilar def. Mateus Mendonca via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mendonça, agreeing with the sportsbooks. He notes the wide variance between public and bookmaker opinion and sides with the books. He believes Mendonça is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and on the ground.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by third-round submission, but with low confidence as he has been flipping on this fight. He notes Aguilar has a 62-inch reach which is a concern, but he is a great grappler with decent wrestling. He criticizes Mendonça's poor fight IQ and submission-over-position style, and mentions that Mendonça is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, while Aguilar has been there for six weeks. He expects the fight to hit the mat where Aguilar can win grappling exchanges.
Cody picks Aguilar, calling Mendonça a 'goof' and questioning why he's a favorite. He notes Aguilar has cardio for days, a decent submission game, and has finished fights late. He thinks if Mendonça doesn't catch him early, Aguilar will tire him out and put a beating on him. He sees it as a good live betting opportunity.
The host is leaning towards Aguilar, believing his power punching style will keep Mendonça on the back foot. He thinks Aguilar is durable enough to handle Mendonça's technical striking and will push the pace to exploit Mendonça's cardio issues. He expects Aguilar to either grind with wrestling or find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Aguilar. He notes Mendonça looked lost in his last fight against Nate Maness, with a terrible game plan. Aguilar has cardio and submissions, and Mendonça's weight cut to 125 may be an issue. He thinks Aguilar can survive the initial onslaught and take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shannon Ross | 1 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shannon Ross | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aguilar (-140), Ross (+120)
Round 1
The first of five combatants from the Oceanic region of Australia and New Zealand sets foot in the cage next, as Ross (12-7, 0-1 UFC) hopes to make the most of a second chance for his first impression. Similarly, Mexico’s Aguilar (8-2, 0-1 UFC) is also hoping to prevail in the Octagon for the first time in his sophomore effort. Something’s gotta give, and referee Jason Herzog will try his best to keep up with these two flyweights. The two charge at one another instead of touching gloves, and Aguilar is the aggressor as he swings a low kick first. Ross responds with a body kick, and he backs up.
Aguilar is on him like a dog chasing a hare, and he dips down, loops an enormous overhand right over the top, and completely short-circuits Ross. The back of the Aussie’s head clatters off the mat, and he is all the way gone.
Aguilar stands over his fallen foe, not throwing an additional strike because he knows his work here is done. Herzog shoves him out of the way, and Aguilar runs around the cage to elicit cheers from the crowd. The Mexican fans in the building, and the rest of the audience as well, goes crazy for the highlight-reel destruction. Aguilar has picked the perfect time to register his first career knockout, posterizing Ross and sending a message to the rest of the flyweight division. What a shot!
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Shannon Ross R1 0:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Aguilar but lacks confidence, noting that Ross is extremely hittable (9 significant strikes absorbed per minute). Aguilar is a solid grappler with a knack for guillotines, but can be wild. He thinks Aguilar will likely win by finish and expects the under on 2.5 rounds. He waits for props.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by second-round submission (guillotine). He notes that Aguilar has a deadly guillotine and nearly submitted Tatsuro Taira with it. He questions Shannon Ross's durability, as Ross has been knocked down multiple times and finished quickly in his UFC debut. He believes Aguilar will grab Ross's neck and submit him, as Ross is not UFC caliber.
Cody picks Aguilar but is not confident. He notes Ross has a terrible chin and has been finished many times. He thinks Aguilar's wrestling and durability will be key. He says it's a better live bet opportunity as Ross may have early success.
Connor picks Aguilar because Ross is a quadruple-A level fighter who cannot hang physically in the UFC. Aguilar is raw but explosive and aggressive, and Ross's lack of a complex game means he will likely get overwhelmed. However, Aguilar's poor technique could allow Ross to win a war, but Ross's durability issues make Aguilar the safer pick.
Daniel Levi picks Aguilar, arguing that Shannon Ross has a tendency to make average fighters look like world-beaters. He cites Ross's losses to Erceg and Vinicius Salvador as examples. Levi notes that Aguilar has a nasty guillotine choke and is aggressive in closing distance. He expects Aguilar to submit Ross, possibly by guillotine. Levi acknowledges that the line has moved due to sharp action on Ross but still prefers Aguilar.
James picks Shannon Ross to win by TKO in the third round, despite Aguilar never being knocked out. He thinks Ross pushes a heavy pace and will overcome early adversity. However, he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline, as he caps the fight near a pick'em and lacks a strong read. He notes Aguilar's dangerous guillotine choke but believes Ross's durability and striking will prevail.
Aguilar is a dangerous power puncher with a lethal guillotine choke. Ross is fragile and tends to panic under pressure. Aguilar will push forward, land big strikes, and force a desperation takedown from Ross, allowing Aguilar to latch onto the neck and secure a submission. The under 2.5 rounds is also a strong play.
Paul picks Ross as an underdog, noting Aguilar has never knocked anyone out. He thinks Ross's striking and cardio are good, and his chin may hold up against a non-power puncher. He mentions the UFC is giving Ross a favorable matchup. He takes a small flyer.
The MMA Guru picks Jesus Aguilar to win by TKO. He notes Aguilar's speed and awkwardness, and Ross coming off two KO losses. He believes Ross will hesitate, and at flyweight that is fatal. He also mentions Aguilar's guillotine threat but thinks his speed will be the key factor.
Zane picks Aguilar because Ross lacks the physicality and durability for the UFC, as shown by his loss to Oshkon Maktarian and knockout by Clinton Rodriguez. Aguilar is a raw but explosive athlete who can overwhelm Ross with aggression. However, Aguilar's lack of structure and poor wrestling could give Ross chances, but Ross's physical limitations are too big a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:49 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:23 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-1200), Aguilar (+800)
Round 1
Taira and Aguilar kick off the evening, with veteran referee Chris Tognoni assigned to keep things clean. Both men set up in orthodox stance, and Aguilar wastes no time in throwing a low kick that nearly takes Taira off his feet. Aguilar swarms and, in the ensuing collision, grabs a guillotine and falls to his back. Taira is in Aguilar’s half guard, on the far side. The angle isn’t great for the submission, but the choke is well under the chin and Aguilar is going for it. Taira remains calm, inching his way to the side. A minute and a half in, they’re still in the same position against the fence. Taira works on the hands, and halfway through the round he pops his head out and goes to work. Taira works to isolate the far arm while trying to pass guard. With 90 seconds left, Taira advances to full mount, trapping Aguilar’s left arm behind his neck briefly. Aguilar bucks to escape, and Taira lets him roll right to top position, cinching up a triangle choke as he does so. Aguilar fights the hold, but Taira switches to a triangle armbar and goes belly down, and the tap comes seconds later. Ice-cold ground work from the undefeated Okinawan.
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The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Jesus Santos Aguilar R1 4:20 via Submission (Triangle Armbar)
Big Brady sees Taira as a massive favorite with a huge reach advantage and superior striking. He expects Taira to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Aguilar, noting that Aguilar's only loss came by submission. He predicts a second-round submission win.
Cody picks Taira inside the distance, noting his elite grappling and ability to take the back. He thinks Aguilar is reckless and makes mistakes, and Taira will capitalize with a submission. He expects the fight to end in the first or second round, likely by rear-naked choke or armbar.
Connor agrees, noting that Aguilar is a physical force but that Taira's positional dominance and grappling will take over. He points out that Taira has shown patience and poise in critical situations, and that Aguilar's wild style will lead to grappling exchanges where Taira is superior. He also comments that the odds are too wide.
Paul picks Taira inside the distance, emphasizing his superior grappling and fight IQ. He notes Aguilar's tendency to give up his back and make mistakes. He expects Taira to dominate on the ground and finish with a submission, likely in the first two rounds.
Zane picks Taira despite acknowledging that Aguilar is a tough, aggressive fighter who could surprise him on the feet. He notes that Taira has shown durability and excellent grappling, with tight positional control and the ability to survive dangerous positions. He believes Aguilar's tendency to force grappling exchanges will play into Taira's strengths.
Expert Picks (5)
Big Brady sees Taira as a massive favorite with a huge reach advantage and superior striking. He expects Taira to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Aguilar, noting that Aguilar's only loss came by submission. He predicts a second-round submission win.
Cody picks Taira inside the distance, noting his elite grappling and ability to take the back. He thinks Aguilar is reckless and makes mistakes, and Taira will capitalize with a submission. He expects the fight to end in the first or second round, likely by rear-naked choke or armbar.
Connor agrees, noting that Aguilar is a physical force but that Taira's positional dominance and grappling will take over. He points out that Taira has shown patience and poise in critical situations, and that Aguilar's wild style will lead to grappling exchanges where Taira is superior. He also comments that the odds are too wide.
Paul picks Taira inside the distance, emphasizing his superior grappling and fight IQ. He notes Aguilar's tendency to give up his back and make mistakes. He expects Taira to dominate on the ground and finish with a submission, likely in the first two rounds.
Zane picks Taira despite acknowledging that Aguilar is a tough, aggressive fighter who could surprise him on the feet. He notes that Taira has shown durability and excellent grappling, with tight positional control and the ability to survive dangerous positions. He believes Aguilar's tendency to force grappling exchanges will play into Taira's strengths.
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