Fight card

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates

November 09, 2024 UFC Apex Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.
Carlos Prates

Carlos Prates W

24-7
KO (punch) R1 4:50
Fight 1 VS Welterweight Completed

Carlos Prates

Moneyline
BetRivers -770
KO/TKO
FanDuel -260
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
DraftKings +800

Neil Magny

Moneyline
FanDuel +570
KO/TKO
BetMGM +2000
Submission
BetMGM +1600
Decision
BetRivers +1700
Fighter Stats

Carlos Prates

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach78.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Neil Magny

Age38
Height6' 3"
Reach80.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Carlos Prates

3.77SLpM
55.0%Str. Acc.
4.53SApM
47.0%Str. Def.
0.21TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
80.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Neil Magny

3.4SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
2.44SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
2.17TD Avg
39.0%TD Acc.
55.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.

"Carlos prattes is the pick the odds do seem to be long gone though maybe they'll start to correct themselves"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.

Prates by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'll say second round for Carlos press there by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds, live bet on Magny if fight goes past two rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout the under two and a half and yet the guy's been smoking darts and breaking hearts."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.

"I think I will actually be surprised here if Neil Magny does not get knocked out."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.

Prates by KO (-300), Prates round 1 (+200), round 2 (+350), round 3 (+450), round 4 (+900), under 2.5 rounds (-215)
"I am gonna pick Carlos Prates to come out here and put Neil Magny as another member of his highlight reel, it's going to be a 16th knockout in my opinion."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.

by KO
"Carlos pratez via KO is the final prediction"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.

wins inside distance, round 2-3, odds -750
"prates finding himself as a minus 750 favor going into this matchup and it completely makes sense as he is the perfect architect of fighter that causes Neil Magny issues look for a lot of light kicks from …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.

Prates by KO, under 2.5 rounds
"Carlos Prates by knockout seems like it's almost inevitable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.

TKO win, low kicks, body shots finish, round 2 or late round 1
"I'm going to go with Carlos prattes getting this one done with prattes people are say are you Gary couldn't finish nil magnet dude mag Gary doesn't have power like that"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.

"I'm picking Pratas very confidently here."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Almost like a dive. Once magny didnt secure the takedown. He was looking at the exit.

Reinier de Ridder

Reinier de Ridder W

21-4
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:44
Fight 2 VS Middleweight Completed

Reinier de Ridder

Moneyline
FanDuel -310
KO/TKO
BetRivers +575
Submission
BetWay +210
Decision
BetRivers +210

Gerald Meerschaert

Moneyline
Caesars +265
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
FanDuel +600
Decision
BetRivers +800
Fighter Stats

Reinier de Ridder

Age35
Height6' 4"
Reach78.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Gerald Meerschaert

Age38
Height6' 1"
Reach77.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Reinier de Ridder

2.47SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.36SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
2.56TD Avg
29.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.6Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Gerald Meerschaert

3.01SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
3.52SApM
53.0%Str. Def.
1.82TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
1.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder as the next evolution of Gerald Meerschaert: high-level BJJ with much better takedowns. He notes de Ridder uses his length well and can hang with anyone on the ground. He expects a high-level grappling fight and thinks the UFC matched him up this way on purpose. He will probably bet on de Ridder.

probably will bet on de Ridder
"reer is going to be the pick I think the UFC matched him up this way on purpose so yeah probably going to bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady goes back and forth but ultimately picks Meerschaert, citing de Ridder's poor cardio and striking. He expects de Ridder to come out strong but fade, allowing Meerschaert to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round submission for Meerschaert.

Meerschaert by submission, round 3
"I'll take mirart I'll say third round submission for mirart"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody highlights de Ridder's elite grappling credentials, including a draw with Andre Galvao and a competitive loss to Tye Ruotolo. He believes de Ridder's judo and BJJ black belt will neutralize Meerschaert's submission game, and his striking is good enough to win on the feet. Cody expects de Ridder to pass this barometer test and win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"I think he passes it but it's not a walk in the park still a tough fight but I think he should go out there and excel with his skill set."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Connor also picks Meerschaert, agreeing that de Ridder's striking is terrible and that Meerschaert can piece him up. He notes the size difference but thinks Meerschaert's boxing will prevail. He also comments that the odds are too wide in favor of de Ridder.

Odds too wide; de Ridder should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm taking Mirchard too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert as a dog, citing concerns about Reinier de Ridder's stamina and recent performances, including a knockout loss and a quit job. He notes Meerschaert's durability, awkward striking, and record for most submissions in UFC middleweight history. Vreeland expects a late finish if de Ridder doesn't get an early submission.

Meerschaert by late finish
"I'm going with GM3 via late finish."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder to win, but is hesitant due to the wide odds. He notes that de Ridder is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, while Meerschaert is a submission specialist who could catch him. He believes de Ridder's wrestling and size advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but acknowledges that Meerschaert is dangerous off his back and could pull off a submission. He also mentions considering a bet on Meerschaert due to the value.

"I'll pick the r but honestly I'm considering a bet on gm3"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

De Ridder's ability to take the back will be key. As his grappling wears on Meerschaert, he should open up a submission or ground-and-pound opportunity and get a finish in his UFC debut.

wins by finish
"I believe as the riters grapple heavy approach wears on him he should be able to open up a submission opportunity or a ground and pound opportunity which he should be able to get and get his hand …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul is not excited about laying -278 on a UFC debutant, but acknowledges de Ridder's experience in big fights and his grappling advantage. He notes that Meerschaert struggles when opponents don't gas and have comparable grappling. Paul thinks de Ridder can win on points or by taking Meerschaert down and controlling him.

"I'm not too excited about laying minus 278 on a guy who hasn't been tested in the UFC yet but he's obviously been in some big fights so he'll be my pick as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and ability to avoid being fraud-checked in grappling. He worries about de Ridder's stand-up but believes his clinch knees and body work will be key. He predicts de Ridder finishes Meerschaert with knees to the body in the second or third round, surviving any guillotine danger.

TKO via knees to the body, round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Raina darid here I may regret this but um M sharts wins Edmund shabazian fumbles everything can't go cardio rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Zane picks Meerschaert, noting that de Ridder cannot strike at all and has no functional pressure. He thinks Meerschaert can outbox him easily. He also mentions that de Ridder's wins are over regional competition and that Meerschaert is a tough out. He suggests a prop on Meerschaert by decision.

Meerschaert wins by decision at +800; fight goes the distance at +150.
"I'm taking Mirchard for sure."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Gastón Bolaños

Gastón Bolaños W

8-5
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00
Fight 3 VS Bantamweight Completed

Gastón Bolaños

Moneyline
Caesars +215
KO/TKO
DraftKings +380
Submission
FanDuel +4900
Decision
FanDuel +700

Cortavious Romious

Moneyline
FanDuel -240
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +190
Decision
BetRivers +330
Fighter Stats

Gastón Bolaños

Age33
Height5' 7"
Reach69"
Weight145 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Cortavious Romious

Age32
Height5' 4"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSouthpaw

Career Averages - Gastón Bolaños

3.28SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
2.4SApM
50.0%Str. Def.
0.66TD Avg
100.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cortavious Romious

1.91SLpM
38.0%Str. Acc.
3.46SApM
39.0%Str. Def.
2.29TD Avg
66.0%TD Acc.
64.0%TD Def.
0.8Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Angelo is torn because Gastón Bolaños is very dangerous with his Muay Thai and power, but Romious is more well-rounded with solid grappling and striking. He notes Romious has multiple paths to victory but also has a chinny history, having been knocked out quickly in the Apex before. Ultimately he leans on the more well-rounded fighter but will not bet due to too many unknowns.

"ultimately I'm going to go with the more well-rounded guy I just got to lean on the guy that has multiple pass to Victory here that's going to be cavius"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Big Brady sees Romious as having a clear path to victory via grappling, as Bolaños is one-dimensional and vulnerable on the ground. He notes Romious's slick submission skills and believes if he takes the fight down, he will dominate. However, he warns that if Romious chooses to stand and trade, he could get knocked out. He predicts a second-round submission.

Romious by submission, round 2
"I'll take ramus I'll take him to win this fight by submission getting the fight down to the mat and if he does I think he makes it look easy so give me cavius ramus to win this …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Cody is high on Bolaños as a dog, citing his elite Muay Thai and spinning back elbow finishes. He questions Romious' durability after a 29-second KO loss and his lack of wrestling against a pure striker. Cody believes Bolaños can land a fight-ending strike, though he admits it's a puncher's chance.

Bolaños by KO
"I got a gut feeling that balanos either makes some second doubt himself and then catches him flat just catches him."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Connor picks Romious despite acknowledging his aimless and confused style. He notes Romious's raw athleticism and ability to take Bolaños down quickly, but also mentions Romious got instantly knocked out on the contender series. He believes Bolaños's game is not made to deal with Romious's athleticism.

"I think you have to pick Romy is here. The raw athleticism, I just don't think Bolaños game is made to deal with that."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Daniel Vreeland picks Cortavious Romious, citing his athleticism, power, and speed advantage over Gastón Bolaños, who he considers slower and less developed in MMA. He notes Romious' dangerous armbar off his back and believes Bolaños' striking hasn't translated well. Vreeland is not confident enough to lay the price but expects Romious to win his UFC debut.

"I'm gonna go Cavius Romeus to win his UFC debut."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Romious should be effective enough in the striking to be competitive, then get the fight to the ground where he has a tremendous grappling advantage and secure a submission victory.

wins by submission
"I believe Romeo can be effective enough in the Striking R here to be competitive and then eventually get this fight to the ground where he has a tremendous grappling advantage and I believe that will lead to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gastón Bolaños

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Bolaños' striking credentials and Romious' defensive liabilities. He points out that Romious didn't shoot takedowns in his Contender Series win and is hittable. Paul thinks Bolaños by knockout is a live dog, but with low confidence due to Bolaños' own wrestling holes.

Bolaños by KO
"Gaston probably by knockout but like I think him by knockout is only plus 200 so might as well just take the money line."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cortavious Romious

The Guru picks Cortavious Romious, citing his athleticism, speed, and scrambling ability. He criticizes Gastón Bolaños for being extremely slow and not impressive against Aaron Phillips. He believes Romious can get takedowns and take the back, but acknowledges Romious may not go far in the division.

"I'm going with cavius romeus shter dude and something I will note about Gaston blanos as well that I've noticed throughout his fights dude is slow beyond belief"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cortavious Romious

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Romious. He describes Romious as a shrunken Derek Brunson who sprints forward with wild punches and takedowns, but notes his top position is not comfortable and he often pulls guard. Zane thinks Romious will take Bolaños down quickly, but acknowledges Romious could throw away success.

"I think, I think you have to pick Romy is here. The raw athleticism, I just don't think Bolaños game is made to deal with that."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Romious and Bolanas are big boy for 135. Bolanas muai thai background. Got dropped end of rd1 and became a grappler. So Bolanas being subbed seems to be on the card?

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

On paper Romo should have subbed but Romo rushes and is a donkey? Odds were 2.65 for the sub

Gillian Robertson

Gillian Robertson W

17-8
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 4 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Gillian Robertson

Moneyline
BetWay -400
KO/TKO
BetWay +550
Submission
BetWay +140
Decision
FanDuel +310

Luana Pinheiro

Moneyline
Caesars +400
KO/TKO
BetMGM +900
Submission
BetMGM +2200
Decision
BetRivers +700
Fighter Stats

Gillian Robertson

Age31
Height5' 5"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Luana Pinheiro

Age33
Height5' 2"
Reach62.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Gillian Robertson

2.71SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
2.86SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
2.76TD Avg
40.0%TD Acc.
38.0%TD Def.
0.9Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Luana Pinheiro

3.29SLpM
39.0%Str. Acc.
4.06SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
2.33TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.

"Jillian Robertson has to be the pick here that has to be the only logical conclusion that you could draw so Jillian Robertson's the pick simple done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.

Robertson by submission, round 2
"I'll take Jillian Robertson second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.

"I think Jullian Robertson rolls here I would love the CF dot model myself but minus 400 favorite seems pretty accurate for Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.

"I think Robertson can ride out Pinero's success and eventually get her to the mat and start beating her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.

"My pick is Julian Robertson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.

by submission, fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"Julian Robinson to win via submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.

wins by submission, round 2
"this is a horrible stylistic match up for Pinero if she's unable to get success in the first round which will eventually lead to Robertson wearing her down with the pressure and Pace eventually leading to a submission …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.

Robertson by submission
"I think like plus 140 Jillian Robertson by sub is how I would bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.

submission or TKO finish
"I'll go Julian Robertson getting her grappling off and implementing that part of her game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.

"I'm going to pick Jillian Robertson to beat her."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Mansur Abdul-Malik W

9-1-1
TKO (knee and punches) R1 2:44
Fight 5 VS Middleweight Completed

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Moneyline
FanDuel -480
KO/TKO
FanDuel -175
Submission
BetRivers +850
Decision
BetWay +700

Duško Todorović

Moneyline
Caesars +400
KO/TKO
BetRivers +900
Submission
DraftKings +1800
Decision
FanDuel +1000
Fighter Stats

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Age28
Height6' 2"
Reach79.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Duško Todorović

Age32
Height6' 1"
Reach74"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Mansur Abdul-Malik

3.28SLpM
44.0%Str. Acc.
4.49SApM
46.0%Str. Def.
1.65TD Avg
41.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Duško Todorović

4.73SLpM
57.0%Str. Acc.
4.4SApM
48.0%Str. Def.
1.77TD Avg
21.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.3Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Angelo is very confident in Mansur Abdul-Malik despite it being his UFC debut. He loves his high-level D1 wrestling, explosiveness, and ground work. He notes Todorović is a technical striker with chin questions. He has Mansur in a parlay but warns against overexposure, advising not to put him in multiple parlays.

included in a parlay
"I love moner in this spot I love the highlevel wrestling experience I will always favor wrestlers I love the explosiveness I love the fact that he works when he's on top he's not just hanging out racking …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Big Brady is very confident in Abdul-Malik, citing Todorović's poor striking defense, low takedown defense, and susceptibility to being knocked out. He highlights Abdul-Malik's wrestling background and devastating ground-and-pound. He predicts a first-round knockout but notes slight cardio concerns if the fight extends.

Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO, round 1
"I'm taking maner Abdul Malik to get this done I think it's a first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Cody is confident in Abdul-Malik due to Todorović's glaring holes: poor takedown defense and a weak chin. He notes Abdul-Malik's Division I wrestling background and athleticism, and expects him to take Todorović down and finish him. Cody sees this as a favorable matchup for the prospect.

"I think manur just uses his wrestling credentials drops under takes him down now you got todorovic who is technically a blackbell but he's no good off his back."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Connor picks Abdul-Malik, noting he is a big favorite. He describes Abdul-Malik as a great prospect from MMA Masters with natural tools but lacking interstitial skills. He contrasts this with Todorović, who has bad habits and bad defense from a weak regional scene. Connor thinks Abdul-Malik's athleticism will overcome Todorović's flaws.

"I think it's a pretty straightforward pick. Like so many of the fights on this card."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Daniel Vreeland picks Mansur Abdul-Malik, praising his athleticism, power, and potential. He notes Duško Todorović's defensive flaws (hands down, chin up) and believes Abdul-Malik's physicality will overwhelm him. Vreeland expects Abdul-Malik to get his first UFC win, possibly by knockout.

"I think Mansour Abdul Malik is going to come out here Saturday night and get his first UFC win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Todorović is returning from back surgeries and may struggle with ring rust against the large, explosive Abdul-Malik. Despite Todorović's experience, Abdul-Malik's physicality should lead to a knockout victory.

wins by KO
"I believe that's going to cause him a lot of issues to try to wipe off that ring Rush against the large explosive and Powerful opponent like Abdul Malik... which will lead to a knockout victory for the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Paul agrees, pointing out Todorović's poor decision-making and chin. He mentions Todorović's leg injury in his last fight and his tendency to walk into danger. Paul thinks Abdul-Malik's wrestling and striking will be too much, but acknowledges the banana peel pricing risk.

"There's just too many red flags for me to get behind him as an underdog when there's some better looking ones later on in the show."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

The Guru picks Mansur Abdul-Malik but is hesitant, noting that Todorović is a good underdog value. He criticizes Abdul-Malik's contender series performance against Wes Schultz, but believes Todorović's long layoff and ACL tear make him vulnerable. He expects Abdul-Malik's offensive wrestling and ground and pound to be the difference, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Todorović could make it competitive.

Great value on Todorović as underdog, should be closer to 2-1 favorite but is 3-1
"I'm still going to go mansur Abdul DUS goes too easily hit he's been out for a year and a bit a year and a half now um and he's coming off an ACL te and manur can …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Abdul-Malik. He describes Abdul-Malik as a big, powerful, fast athlete from MMA Masters, but notes his game lacks structure. He criticizes Todorović as hateable with bad defense and a wrestling game that only works against weak opponents. Zane thinks Abdul-Malik's physical advantages will prevail.

"I think it's a pretty straightforward pick. Like so many of the fights on this card."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Denise Gomes

Denise Gomes W

12-3
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00
Fight 6 VS Women's Strawweight Completed

Denise Gomes

Moneyline
BetWay -549
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
BetRivers +1050
Decision
FanDuel -135

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Moneyline
DraftKings +500
KO/TKO
BetMGM +3500
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
FanDuel +700
Fighter Stats

Denise Gomes

Age26
Height5' 2"
Reach63.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Age40
Height5' 3"
Reach64.0"
Weight115 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Denise Gomes

4.43SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
3.16SApM
51.0%Str. Def.
1.45TD Avg
34.0%TD Acc.
66.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz

5.54SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
5.77SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.36TD Avg
23.0%TD Acc.
74.0%TD Def.
0.2Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.

Gomes by decision
"give me GES here minus 500 it's absolutely ridiculous but at the end of the day I think she gets her hand raised and I think it's by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.

"I actually think that Denise Gomez probably knocks her out might knock her out but more than likely just wins a 29-28 fairly comfortably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.

Odds too wide; Gomes should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'll take Kovalkiewicz and the assumption that Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.

"I'm going with Denise, the age, the physicality, the momentum on her side, but I have zero interest in laying minus 500 on her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.

by KO
"I'm picking Denise Gomez here and I think she gets a knockout potentially a brutal knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Denise Gomes

Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.

"look for Gomez to control the Striking round with the power that she possesses but maybe even get some grappling success of her own to get some control time and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.

"Karolina plus 390 is in consideration for me this week Cody and it's gross."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.

TKO win
"I'm going with Denise Gomez getting this one done over kolina kovalovich by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Denise Gomes

Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.

"I think I'm going to pick Gomes though, still."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 7 months, 3 weeks ago

Karolina cant win anymore but is still good? wet blanket, volume rabbit punches. Takes a good a punch. nice back take in rd3. Fights till the bell. Karolina has heart. Took a head kick and still looked the opponent right in the eyes

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos W

25-10-1
TKO (punches) R1 1:15
Fight 7 VS Catchweight (174 lb) Completed

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Moneyline
FanDuel -750
KO/TKO
BetWay +130
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel +210

Zachary Scroggin

Moneyline
Caesars +700
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1200
Submission
BetRivers +3000
Decision
BetRivers +1600
Fighter Stats

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Age39
Height5' 11"
Reach73.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Zachary Scroggin

AgeN/A
HeightN/A
ReachN/A
WeightN/A
StanceN/A

Career Averages - Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

4.16SLpM
41.0%Str. Acc.
3.56SApM
55.0%Str. Def.
0.79TD Avg
20.0%TD Acc.
67.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Zachary Scroggin

No career stats available.

Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Angelo picks Zaleski but with low confidence. He thinks Zaleski has heavier hands and can get takedowns, but worries about his cardio. He expects Zaleski needs to win the first two rounds because he will likely lose the third. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Scroggin if the odds are favorable. He understands people picking Scroggin due to his cardio and durability.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Zach Scroggin
"I just think zeleski can make something happen he's got the heavier hands I think he can get a takedown or two my only concern is the freaking cardio so we're going to need zeleski to win the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady sees this as a mismatch, with Zaleski being far more experienced and skilled. He notes Scroggin's low level of competition, poor takedown defense, and hittability. He believes Zaleski will win easily, likely by first-round knockout.

Zaleski by KO/TKO, round 1
"I'll take Eliza zesi by by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Cody is very confident in Zaleski, calling Scroggin a 'dead man walking.' He points out Scroggin's lack of power, poor wrestling, and weak competition. Cody notes Zaleski's experience, power, and ability to take down Randy Brown, and expects a dominant finish or clear decision.

"I think zeleski do Santos kills this man absolutely kills this man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Connor picks Zaleski as a lock, calling it a 'pick him fight'. He notes Zaleski's ability to outbrawl opponents and that Scroggin is a severely undercooked submission grappler with dreadful striking. Connor mentions Zaleski hasn't knocked anyone out in six years but wouldn't be surprised if he does here. He also comments on the odds being wide.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Connor says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, believing his experience and level of competition will be too much for UFC newcomer Zach Scroggin. He notes Scroggin's padded record and lack of tested skills, while Zaleski has fought top competition and has knockout power. Vreeland expects a rude welcome for Scroggin.

"I'm going Elizio Zeleski to welcome this guy to the UFC in a very rude fashion."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Scroggin is taking a huge step up in competition and despite his grappling, Zaleski should shut that down and use his striking advantage to find a finish in round two.

wins inside distance, round 2
"I think ultimately zeleski will be able to shut that down get to his striking advantage and eventually find the finish in round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul agrees, noting Scroggin's short-notice debut and unimpressive regional competition. He highlights Zaleski's power and veteran savvy, and expects him to overwhelm Scroggin on the feet. Paul thinks the -500 line is fair but warns of banana peel pricing.

"Zeleski should absolutely kill him unless the groggin guy has like great durability it should be oneway traffic."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

The Guru picks Nicholas Dalby, citing his high output and cardio. He notes that Zaleski dos Santos is 37 and hasn't had a KO since 2018. He expects Dalby to push a pace and break Zaleski over the fight, though he acknowledges Zaleski could win by TKO.

"I'm actually going to go with Nicholas dby I think the high output will be the thing here pushing him up against the cage kneeing the thighs shooting in takedowns"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lock picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Zane picks Zaleski as a lock, describing Scroggin as a regional-level fighter with a submission grappling style and empty striking. He notes Zaleski is a really good opponent and that Scroggin has never faced a good opponent. Zane says Zaleski can go to war with anyone and it's up to him how he wins.

Odds: Zaleski -525 to -669, Scroggin +356 to +400. Zane says 'I would not expect them to get a lot closer though.'
"It's a pick him fight. It's a pick him fight."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Charles Radtke

Charles Radtke W

12-5
TKO (punches) R1 0:51
Fight 8 VS Welterweight Completed

Charles Radtke

Moneyline
DraftKings -166
KO/TKO
FanDuel +430
Submission
FanDuel +700
Decision
BetWay +175

Matthew Semelsberger

Moneyline
BetRivers +148
KO/TKO
DraftKings +330
Submission
BetMGM +2200
Decision
BetRivers +540
Fighter Stats

Charles Radtke

Age35
Height5' 9"
Reach72.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Matthew Semelsberger

Age33
Height6' 1"
Reach75.0"
Weight170 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Career Averages - Charles Radtke

2.8SLpM
54.0%Str. Acc.
2.63SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.32TD Avg
30.0%TD Acc.
100.0%TD Def.
0.7Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Matthew Semelsberger

3.77SLpM
42.0%Str. Acc.
4.24SApM
54.0%Str. Def.
1.01TD Avg
57.0%TD Acc.
45.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Angelo picks Charles Radtke because he believes Radtke will land the better shots and get takedowns. He notes Radtke is an athletic grappler with power, while Semelsberger is an aggressive striker with poor takedown defense (45%). He thinks Semelsberger's toughness will keep him in the fight but doesn't see him winning. He also likes the over 1.5 rounds line if available, as both are tough.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"I think Charlie's going to land the better shot shs get the takedowns which hopefully we'll start to see more of and I think he wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Big Brady likes Radtke's multiple paths to victory: power on the feet and a clear grappling advantage. He criticizes Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and low volume, noting that Radtke is a BJJ black belt with submission wins. He predicts a second-round submission.

Radtke by submission, round 2
"I'll take racky to win this fight I think it's a submission and I think it's round round uh round two submission I'll say for Charles raky"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Cody sees this as a coin flip but leans Radtke due to Semelsberger's poor takedown defense and recent losses. He notes Radtke's smart game plan against Blood Diamond and his clinch work. Cody expects Radtke to neutralize Semelsberger's striking with wrestling and cage control.

"It's a coin flip fight it's 50/50 to me but my brain does tell me radkey so even though I got to play a little chalk on it I guess I will."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Connor picks Radtke, citing Semelsberger's broken confidence and inability to deal with Radtke's lead left hook. He notes Semelsberger has been second-guessing himself and overthinking, while Radtke has a simple one-punch game. Connor thinks Semelsberger will just eat the left hook or try to avoid it without a clear answer.

"I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Matthew Semelsberger as a dog, citing his knockdown power and experience. He worries about Semelsberger's mental toughness and tendency to let opponents back into fights, but believes Charles Radtke is still green and not worth laying a price on. Vreeland notes Semelsberger has won as a dog before.

"I'm going to reluctantly take semi the Jedi Matthew Semelsberger here to get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Radtke is expected to do enough in the striking to get his offense off, then take the fight to the ground where he can find a finish in the first or second round.

wins inside distance, round 1-2
"I'm going to have to go with the grappler here and Radu can do a good enough job in the Striking R to get his own offense off but eventually get this fight into the grappling round where …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Charles Radtke

Paul agrees, citing Semelsberger's declining durability and takedown defense. He worries about Radtke's size disadvantage but thinks Radtke's wrestling and left hook can get the job done. Paul plans to include Radtke in parlays.

"Radtke is the pick for me and I'm sure he'll be on something not like a hard play a little bit more along the Deen you know a long parlay."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Matthew Semelsberger

The Guru picks Matthew Semelsberger as an underdog, citing his reach advantage and ability to beat Jake Matthews. He criticizes Radtke's performance against Mike Malott and believes Semelsberger will finally get a TKO finish without fumbling. He notes Semelsberger is on a three-fight losing streak and has his back against the wall.

TKO win, underdog
"I'm taking that Underdog I'm taking the underdog of Matthew semelsberger this guy is a fum of fumblers we have to mention that okay"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Charles Radtke

Zane picks Radtke, agreeing with Connor. He describes Semelsberger as deep in the shit, unable to figure out his game, and distractible. Zane notes Semelsberger got outstruck by Preston Parsons, who is straightforward, and that Radtke's simple left hook will be effective. He says 'I'm taking Radtke'.

"So I'm taking Radtke. I think that left hook... I can't imagine that Semelsberger is going to come up with a confident, clear answer for the lead left hook."
Fight Notes

No comments yet.

Da'Mon Blackshear

Da'Mon Blackshear W

17-8-1
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:19
Fight 9 VS Bantamweight Completed

Da'Mon Blackshear

Moneyline
DraftKings -250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
FanDuel -120

Cody Stamann

Moneyline
Caesars +225
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1400
Submission
BetMGM +3000
Decision
BetRivers +330
Fighter Stats

Da'Mon Blackshear

Age31
Height5' 10"
Reach72.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Cody Stamann

Age36
Height5' 6"
Reach64.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Da'Mon Blackshear

4.33SLpM
45.0%Str. Acc.
4.19SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
1.48TD Avg
33.0%TD Acc.
71.0%TD Def.
1.5Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Cody Stamann

4.32SLpM
46.0%Str. Acc.
3.91SApM
60.0%Str. Def.
2.17TD Avg
37.0%TD Acc.
76.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Angelo believes Da'Mon Blackshear is the better fighter with far better striking and good wrestling. He thinks Cody Stamann will get outstruck and then shoot sloppy takedowns. However, he notes Blackshear is 2-4 in the UFC and hasn't had a key win over a division staple like Stamann, so he is not confident enough to bet. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Stamann if the odds are good.

considering plus 3.5 round bet on Cody Stamann if odds are favorable
"Daman is just the better fighter here in my opinion he's got the far better striking even though Cody's been boxing for a very long time Daman is faster and he's more than just hands"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Big Brady favors Blackshear due to his size, reach, and youth advantage over the 35-year-old Stamann. He believes Blackshear's striking is underrated and his grappling is elite, with a black belt in BJJ. He expects Blackshear to have success wherever the fight goes and predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges the line may be too wide.

Blackshear by decision
"I'm going to take blackshire to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody is high on Stamann as a dog, citing Blackshear's cardio issues and lack of power. He notes Stamann's wrestling credentials and ability to get back up from takedowns. Cody expects a close decision and thinks the +230 line is too wide for a veteran like Stamann.

"I think Cody ston as a doger pass type situation plus 230 on Cody staman like me likey me likey."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Connor picks Stamann, noting Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it has cost him. He thinks Stamann's neutralizer style will make Blackshear make mistakes. Connor expects a narrow split decision, possibly ugly. He mentions Stamann is the underdog at +217 to +232.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Connor says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

Daniel Vreeland picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his physical advantages (reach, height) and higher aspirations compared to Cody Stamann, who may be nearing retirement. He acknowledges Stamann's takedown defense and ability to make fights close, but believes Blackshear's grappling and motivation give him the edge. Vreeland expects a close fight.

"I'm gonna pick him for that reason but I would not at all be surprised if this was a very close fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Stamann is being overlooked as a +230 underdog. His defensive wrestling should keep him away from Blackshear's BJJ, allowing him to dictate the striking pace and pull away in the second and third rounds as Blackshear slows down. Expect a decision win.

underdog +230, wins by decision
"I do believe staman is being overlooked as he is a plus 230 Underdog I believe his defensive wrestling will allow him to stay away from the BJJ heavy approach of black here allowing him to dictate the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul agrees, questioning how Blackshear can be such a favorite given his recent KO loss and cardio problems. He thinks Stamann's experience and wrestling will keep the fight competitive, and the price is too good to pass up. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass.

"Clear clear dogger pass I will have money on staman as well this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Da'Mon Blackshear

The Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his size, strength, and youth. He criticizes Cody Stamann's lack of finishing ability and short reach. He notes Blackshear gave Mario Bautista a tough fight and believes he is the better fighter. He mentions the odds might be worth betting on Blackshear as a favorite.

Might be worth some money as a favorite
"I'm very confident he's going to win this fight um I got them on Black Shear I think he's just way better as a fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Cody Stamann

Zane picks Stamann, agreeing with Connor. He describes Stamann as a solid defensive striker who can bang in the pocket, but notes he never presses advantages. Zane thinks Blackshear's poor striking and tendency to start from negative positions will allow Stamann to neutralize him. He expects a narrow split decision.

Odds: Stamann +217 to +232, Blackshear -254 to -275. Zane says 'Surprising. I mean, I get that Stamann's coming, you know, he's lost a lot of fights lately, but you can't have to look at, have you seen the fight?'
"I think I have to, I have to pick Stamen. Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it's cost him regularly."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Fair play to Damon, rocked him and then got the sub with some work.

Tresean Gore

Tresean Gore W

7-4
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:23
Fight 10 VS Middleweight Completed

Tresean Gore

Moneyline
Caesars -170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetWay +275

Antonio Trócoli

Moneyline
BetRivers +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetWay +500
Fighter Stats

Tresean Gore

Age31
Height6' 0"
Reach75.0"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceSwitch

Antonio Trócoli

Age35
Height6' 5"
Reach80"
Weight185 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Tresean Gore

3.41SLpM
49.0%Str. Acc.
7.0SApM
40.0%Str. Def.
1.91TD Avg
72.0%TD Acc.
83.0%TD Def.
1.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Antonio Trócoli

1.27SLpM
47.0%Str. Acc.
5.3SApM
26.0%Str. Def.
0.88TD Avg
9.0%TD Acc.
42.0%TD Def.
0.4Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Antonio Trócoli

Angelo is baffled that Tresean Gore is nearly a 2-to-1 favorite given he hasn't fought in two years and has only six professional fights. He sees Trócoli as bigger, more skilled, more experienced, and better trained. He also notes Trócoli's length and aggressive grappling as key advantages. He has placed a half-unit bet on Trócoli at +145.

half unit bet at +145
"Antonio troli is the pick he's bigger he's more skilled he's more experienced he's better trained he has the hotter girlfriend literally everything I have a half a unit on him at Plus 145"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tresean Gore

Big Brady is not high on either fighter but gives Gore the edge due to takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes Gore's low volume and overrated power as concerns, but believes Gore's higher ceiling and ability to keep the fight standing will lead to a decision win. He expects the fight to be unexciting.

Gore by decision
"give me Gore here to win this fight probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tresean Gore

Cody reluctantly picks Gore, noting both fighters are inactive and unproven. He gives Gore the edge in athleticism and upside, but admits it's a narrative-based pick. Cody expects a messy fight and advises against betting it.

"If you're a smart guy just don't even bet on this crap altogether but if you're chasing an underdog I suppose troli has a chance and if you got a gun to my head and you're telling me …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Antonio Trócoli

Connor picks Trócoli hesitantly, noting Gore has been out for two years with injuries and got outstruck by Cody Brundage. He thinks Trócoli will blitz early and if Gore can't handle it, Trócoli wins. Connor acknowledges Trócoli is bad but believes Gore's inactivity and lack of proven ability make Trócoli the pick.

Odds: Gore -166 to -190, Trócoli +147 to +153. Connor says 'I don't see why anybody would give Gore favorite odds on anything.'
"I'm going to pick the Instagram model. Gore can, if he can dig down and just like ride out that early blitz. Sure. Tricoli has nothing else."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tresean Gore

Daniel Vreeland picks Tresean Gore despite concerns about his inactivity and mental toughness. He notes Gore's athletic gifts and finishing ability, while criticizing Antonio Trócoli's lack of development and athletic disadvantage. Vreeland worries Gore might pull a stunt but believes he has more potential and skills.

"I'll go Tre Shawn but you know do I sound confident?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tresean Gore

Gore is favored due to his speed, explosivity, and power. The pick expects him to land big shots on Trócoli and find a knockout within two rounds.

wins inside distance, round 1-2
"I'm going to have to lean with the speed explosivity and power of the Tron gors side to land Big Shots Onre coli and find that knockout within two rounds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tresean Gore

Paul is not confident in either fighter. He notes Trócoli's poor striking defense and Gore's inactivity. He prefers betting on a finish rather than picking a winner, suggesting the under 2.5 rounds.

under 2.5 rounds
"Rather than aide I'm more interested in betting for somebody to get a finish in the first two and or first 12 and a half minutes of this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tresean Gore

The Guru picks Tresean Gore but is hesitant due to Gore's KO loss to Cody Brundage. He criticizes Antonio Trócoli as 'dog [__]' with no offensive output. He believes Gore can chew up Trócoli's legs and get a TKO, but worries about Gore being outgrappled.

TKO win
"I'm going to go with Tre sha Gore he could be outg grappled here maybe but as long as this fight's on the feet I see Gore chewing up his legs and eventually getting a TKO win"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Antonio Trócoli

Zane picks Trócoli, agreeing with Connor. He describes Trócoli as an Instagram model who will sprint at Gore and either wreck him or self-destruct. Zane notes Gore has only six pro fights in a decade and has been injured. He thinks Trócoli's early blitz could overwhelm Gore, but acknowledges Trócoli's limitations.

Odds: Gore -166 to -190, Trócoli +147 to +153. Zane says 'I don't see why anybody would give Gore favorite odds on anything.'
"I'm going to pick the Instagram model. Gore can, if he can dig down and just like ride out that early blitz. Sure. Tricoli has nothing else."
Fight Notes
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Nice gully ...should trocoli have defended better?

Melissa Mullins

Melissa Mullins W

7-2
TKO (punches) R2 1:20
Fight 11 VS Catchweight (137 lb) Completed

Melissa Mullins

Moneyline
FanDuel -330
KO/TKO
BetRivers +500
Submission
BetRivers +650
Decision
FanDuel -105

Klaudia Syguła

Moneyline
DraftKings +275
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
FanDuel +1700
Decision
BetRivers +500
Fighter Stats

Melissa Mullins

Age34
Height5' 7"
Reach68.0"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Klaudia Syguła

Age27
Height5' 8"
Reach69"
Weight135 lbs.
StanceOrthodox

Career Averages - Melissa Mullins

3.71SLpM
50.0%Str. Acc.
4.39SApM
52.0%Str. Def.
2.03TD Avg
42.0%TD Acc.
85.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg

Career Averages - Klaudia Syguła

7.27SLpM
48.0%Str. Acc.
5.5SApM
56.0%Str. Def.
0.41TD Avg
12.0%TD Acc.
40.0%TD Def.
0.0Sub. Avg
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Angelo picks Melissa Mullins because she is stronger and more physical, and he believes Klaudia Syguła will not be able to defend takedowns. He notes Mullins has power and is a BJJ world champion, though her takedowns aren't great. He worries about Mullins ending up in the clinch where Syguła can do work, but overall expects Mullins to be too strong. He wishes the line were closer as Mullins is a wild favorite.

"Melissa Mullins is going to be the pick because I think she's going to be too strong too physical and Claudia is not going to be able to defend the takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Big Brady likes Mullins's path to victory through her top game and ground-and-pound, noting Syguła's low level of competition and poor ground game. He is concerned about Mullins being hittable on the feet but believes she can take Syguła down and do damage. He would not lay -240 but still picks Mullins by third-round TKO.

Mullins by TKO, round 3
"I'm taking Melissa Mullen give me Mullin to win this fight I'll say like a third round TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Cody picks Mullins based on her better competition and ground game, despite her poor UFC debut. He notes Syguła's weak regional record and lack of notable wins. Cody expects Mullins to get the fight to the mat and win, but with low confidence.

"The pick for me is Mullins by way that she's already made her UFC debut the ground game I do believe is better."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Connor picks Mullins, describing her as aggressive with a plan to break opponents down and submit them. He contrasts Syguła as directionless and more guesswork. Connor notes Mullins is a finisher at heart, while Syguła wants a pretty fight but isn't capable. He thinks Mullins will have the first word and win.

"I got to take Mullens. Like that's really, it's just Mullens. There's a distinct drive to what she's more aggressive. She's more aggressive and she knows how she needs to fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Klaudia Syguła

Daniel Vreeland picks newcomer Klaudia Syguła as a live dog, noting her striking enthusiasm and potential improvements since her last fight. He questions Melissa Mullins' takedown ability and durability, citing her weight miss and losses. Vreeland believes Syguła can win if she avoids being ground out.

"I'm going with the newcomer Claudio Seula here to come out here and upset Melissa Mullins."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Mullins is expected to showcase better control and takedowns, staying out of Syguła's submission-heavy style. She should grind out a decision win on the scorecards.

"I believe Mullins is the one that showcases better control better takedowns and I believe she'll be able to stay out of the submission heavy style of seula allowing her to grind this fight out and win it …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Klaudia Syguła

Paul is leaning towards Syguła as a dog, citing Mullins' poor performance against Nora Cornolle. He thinks Syguła's striking might be enough if she can avoid takedowns. Paul admits it's a low-confidence pick and is passing on betting it.

"I'll pick saula I suppose for whatever that's worth."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Mullins

The Guru picks Melissa Mullins, citing her grit and takedown ability. He criticizes Klaudia Syguła's poor striking and believes she is only in the UFC because she is attractive. He expects Mullins to mix in takedowns and win by ground and pound or decision.

ground and pound TKO or decision win 29-28
"Melissa Mullins is going to get this one done ground and pound TKO decision win 29-28 with some takedowns mixed in"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Mullins

Zane picks Mullins, agreeing with Connor. He describes Mullins as a fighter who wants to clinch and take the fight to the ground, where she can get aggressive. He notes Syguła has shown better striking but against poor opposition, and when pressed, she clinches like Mullins. Zane thinks Mullins's aggression and drive will prevail.

"I got to take Mullens. Like that's really, it's just Mullens. There's a distinct drive to what she's more aggressive. She's more aggressive and she knows how she needs to fight."
Fight Notes

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