UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen

Big Brady picks Sandhagen due to his volume striking (7 significant strikes per minute vs Moraes' 3.5), height and reach advantage, and elite cardio. He expects Sandhagen to survive Moraes' early storm, tire him out, and get a late finish. He notes Moraes' cardio issues and that Sandhagen can switch stances to defend kicks.

Daniel believes Marlon Moraes is being disrespected by the betting line and public opinion. He argues that Moraes has fought higher-level competition, including a win over Jose Aldo, and that his power and calf kicks will be decisive. He notes that Sandhagen has been dropped early in fights and questions his ability to weather Moraes' early storm. Daniel also points out that Moraes has more decision wins and has been to the championship rounds, countering the narrative that he fades late.

Sandhagen's footwork and output are superior; he uses range well with kicks and jabs, and has better cardio for a five-round fight. Moraes tends to fade late and struggles when backing up. Sandhagen will likely finish in the third or fourth round via TKO.

The Guru picks Sandhagen due to stylistic advantages and Moraes' cardio issues in five-round fights. He notes Sandhagen's reach, height, stance-switching, and front kicks to counter Moraes' leg kicks. He predicts Sandhagen will survive early rounds and take over, finishing via ground-and-pound TKO in the fourth round. He emphasizes that Moraes has not fixed his cardio weakness despite repeated exposure.

Big Brady picks Barboza as part of a parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov. He believes Barboza has a great stylistic matchup, with 75% takedown defense against elite wrestlers, and that Amirkhani lacks the wrestling to keep him down. He expects Barboza to survive the early storm, stuff takedowns, and land a knockout as Amirkhani slows down. He notes Barboza is a BJJ black belt himself.

Daniel argues that Edson Barboza is not washed up like Tyron Woodley; he is still competitive with top-15 fighters and wins rounds. He believes Makwan Amirkhani is not on Barboza's level and that Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns due to Barboza's improved takedown defense. Daniel also notes that Amirkhani has poor cardio and tends to fold when hit hard, while Barboza has the striking advantage and can finish the fight.

Barboza has a significant striking advantage and solid takedown defense. Amirkhani is a first-round threat but fades quickly; Barboza's body work and kicks will drain him. Expect a third-round TKO after Amirkhani's initial blitz fails.

The Guru picks Barboza, acknowledging Amirkhani's dangerous ground game but believing Barboza's takedown defense has improved over years of training. He notes Barboza survived Khabib's grappling and never got submitted. He expects Barboza to defend takedowns early, then take over with body kicks to drain Amirkhani's gas tank, finishing with a body kick TKO in the late second round.

Big Brady picks Rothwell due to his durability and power, noting Tybura has been knocked out four times and has a questionable chin. He expects Rothwell to pressure Tybura against the cage and land bombs. He acknowledges Rothwell is older (38) but believes his power and durability are key. He mentions the fight could be low output.

Daniel picks Ben Rothwell primarily because he believes Rothwell is tougher and hits harder. He acknowledges that Rothwell has looked slow since returning from suspension and takes a lot of damage, but he thinks Rothwell's pressure and durability will be enough. He also notes that Tybura has questionable toughness and may fold under pressure, but he wouldn't be surprised if Tybura wins a sloppy decision.

Rothwell's pressure and awkward striking angles will overwhelm Tybura, who lacks output and combination punching. Tybura's takedown attempts will be unsuccessful, and Rothwell's power will break him in the second round via TKO.

The Guru picks Tybura as an underdog, believing his pressure-heavy style and improved conditioning will overwhelm Rothwell. He thinks Tybura will control the clinch against the cage and win a unanimous decision, as Rothwell lacks finishing ability. He notes the odds (Rothwell -200) are off and the fight should be 50-50.

Big Brady picks the underdog Perez, citing his durability (never finished), UFC experience, and submission game. He notes du Plessis has been taken down and submitted before, and that Perez can exploit that. He expects a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission in the second round. He acknowledges du Plessis is legit but favors Perez's toughness.

Daniel sees this as a 50/50 fight and leans with the underdog Markus Perez. He notes that du Plessis has a history of slow starts and comebacks, which makes him risky as a favorite. Perez has good wrestling and submissions, and if du Plessis starts slow, Perez could submit him. However, Daniel is worried that Perez gets bullied and fatigues easily, but he still slightly edges the dog.

Du Plessis is calm, calculated, and efficient, while Perez is wild and lacks a game plan. Perez is durable but will be outpointed. The fight likely goes to decision, with du Plessis winning via leg kicks and combinations.

The Guru picks du Plessis, citing his youth (26), savage regional competition, and Perez's decline. He notes Perez has lost to good competition and only beat cans. He trusts du Plessis' conditioning on short notice due to his age and predicts a first-round finish.

Big Brady picks Aspinall confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and that Baudot is moving up a weight class and is much smaller. He expects a first round knockout, but mentions a submission is possible if Aspinall uses a wrestling-heavy game plan. He notes Aspinall is a BJJ black belt.

Daniel is very confident that Tom Aspinall will win easily. He praises Aspinall's youth, black belt in jiu-jitsu, and training with Tyson Fury. He dismisses Alan Baudot as coming from a suspect regional scene (TKO) and notes that Baudot lost his last fight (though overturned) and was knocked out by a fighter Aspinall already beat. Daniel predicts a first-round knockout.

Aspinall's grappling is far superior; Baudot has shown poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. Aspinall will take the fight to the ground quickly and secure a first-round submission. Baudot has a puncher's chance on the feet but Aspinall will avoid that.

The Guru picks Aspinall, highlighting his boxing background and experience. He analyzes Baudot's record, noting he struggled against better competition and was choked out by Todd Stout (later overturned). He believes if Baudot tries to stand and strike with Aspinall, he will get knocked out stiff in the first round.

Big Brady picks the underdog Topuria, citing his dangerous finishing ability (88% by knockout, 12% by submission) and takedown threat. He worries about Topuria's cardio but believes he can finish early. He notes Zalal has never been finished but thinks there's a first time. He admits he's a Zalal fan but goes against him here.

Daniel picks Ilia Topuria as an underdog, believing he has value. He notes that Zalal has not faced a real takedown threat since his regional losses, while Topuria is a strong wrestler with finishing ability. Daniel acknowledges Zalal's good footwork and calf kicks but thinks Topuria's grappling and power will be the difference. He also mentions that Topuria has overcome adversity, getting dropped and coming back to win.

Topuria's high-level grappling and black belt jiu-jitsu will be the difference; Zalal has shown poor takedown defense and has been controlled on the ground. Topuria's cardio is a question, but he should secure a submission in the first or second round. Zalal's striking advantage is nullified by Topuria's relentless pressure.

The Guru picks Zalal but is hesitant, acknowledging Topuria's skills and short-notice factor. He notes Zalal's activity, speed, and unorthodox style, and believes Topuria may be reckless early. He advises waiting to bet on Zalal as odds may shift. He says if Topuria had a full camp, he might pick him.

Big Brady picks Breese despite trust issues, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes Breese has a 91% finish rate and expects a second round submission. He acknowledges Bhullar has decent power but believes Breese is the more tested fighter and has advantages on the feet and ground.

Daniel picks Tom Breese but with hesitation due to Breese's past mental issues and pulling out of fights. He believes Breese is better everywhere—boxing, jiu-jitsu, experience—but questions his mindset. He notes that KB Bhullar is average and only dangerous if Breese quits. Daniel thinks if Breese shows up, he wins easily.

Breese has the experience and striking advantage, but his mental fragility is a concern. Bhullar is an unknown with limited tape. Breese should outpoint him via decision if he shows up mentally prepared. This is a stay-away fight for betting.

The Guru picks Breese but is hesitant due to Breese's anxiety issues and recent KO loss. He analyzes Bhullar's record, noting he has only fought cans and struggled against his first opponent with a winning record. He predicts Breese will win by submission off his back, possibly an armbar or triangle, in the first or second round. He acknowledges the odds are juicy but says he won't be swayed.

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

Big Brady picks Kasanganay, impressed by his composure and power despite limited experience. He notes Buckley slows down and has been knocked out twice, and that Kasanganay has a cardio advantage. He predicts a third round knockout, though he acknowledges Buckley is dangerous early. He considers the line a bit wide but likes Kasanganay.

Daniel is very high on Impa Kasanganay, calling him a future top-15 fighter. He praises Kasanganay's physical tools, fight IQ, and rapid improvement. He contrasts that with Joaquin Buckley, whom he calls a 'club fighter' with no plan B if his big bombs don't work. Daniel believes Kasanganay can win standing, in the clinch, or on the ground, and that this is a step down in competition.

Kasanganay is a more efficient and methodical striker with excellent lead hand work and range management. Buckley relies on power and blitzes but fades late. Kasanganay will use his length, counter-striking, and potential grappling to win a decision.

The Guru picks Kasanganay, emphasizing Buckley's recent KO loss (twice in one night to Kevin Holland) and quick turnaround. He believes Buckley will be gun-shy and overaggressive, allowing Kasanganay to counter. He predicts Kasanganay will take over in later rounds, winning by unanimous decision or third-round finish.

Big Brady picks the underdog AlQaisi, citing his takedown and submission game as a clear path to victory against Kelley's questionable takedown defense. He notes Kelley throws high volume but can be taken down easily. He expects AlQaisi to win a close decision if he sticks to takedowns and doesn't tire.

Daniel picks Tony Kelley to win, likely by finish. He notes that Kelley has a wider arsenal of strikes and better cardio, while AlQaisi is stiff and one-dimensional. He believes Kelley's volume and calf kicks will be too much, and that AlQaisi's top control is not good enough to keep Kelley down. Daniel also mentions that Kelley showed good cardio in his short-notice fight against Kamaka.

Kelley has superior striking, footwork, and range, but this is his first fight at bantamweight and he took damage in his last fight. AlQaisi will likely try to grapple, but Kelley's takedown defense and offensive guard should keep him safe. Expect a decision win for Kelley.

The Guru picks Kelley, citing his size at bantamweight and past performances. He notes Kelley went to a split decision with Kevin Aguilar (who was on a tear) and looked good in a loss to Kai Kamaka. He believes Kelley will be too big and rangy, dominating on the feet and in grappling, and predicts a third-round finish.

Big Brady picks Morales, noting he is not impressed with Chikadze's low volume (3.3 strikes per minute) and cardio issues. He believes Morales will press forward, land harder shots, and has a BJJ black belt advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He expects Morales to win a decision, especially winning the third round.

Daniel slightly edges Omar Morales, citing his toughness, strong fundamentals, and better cardio. He notes that Giga Chikadze tends to fade in the third round, while Morales gets better as the fight progresses. Daniel also thinks Morales might mix in takedowns if needed. He acknowledges Chikadze's dynamic kicking but believes Morales' pressure and durability will carry him.

Morales has higher output and fight IQ, and his leg kicks will be effective against Chikadze's wide karate stance. Chikadze is a skilled kickboxer but may be outworked. Morales' first cut to 145 is a concern, but he should win a decision.

The Guru picks Morales, expressing disdain for Chikadze's padded record against cans. He notes Morales has overperformed against good competition (e.g., Gabriel Benitez). He believes Chikadze struggles against anyone with a winning record and will lose by unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks the underdog Egger, citing her size advantage (3-inch height), legitimate ground game, and takedown ability. He notes Cortez has been reversed and put in bad spots on the mat, and that Egger is the bigger woman. He believes the fight should be closer to a pick'em and expects Egger to win by decision or submission.

Daniel leans with Tracy Cortez, believing her wrestling is better suited for MMA than Egger's judo. He notes that pulling guard in MMA is risky against a wrestler. He expects Cortez to get takedowns and win a decision. However, he cautions that Cortez is still green and wouldn't bet heavily on her.

Egger has size, strength, and judo advantages; she can reverse clinch positions and control on the ground. Cortez is undersized and may struggle to get takedowns. Egger's cardio is a concern, but she should win the first two rounds and survive the third for a decision.

The Guru picks Cortez, citing her better competition, experience, and record. He notes Egger is taking the fight on short notice and expects Cortez to grind out a unanimous decision by winning the second and third rounds.

Big Brady picks Ulanbekov confidently, citing advantages everywhere: solid striking, very good wrestling, and volume. He expects Ulanbekov to get takedowns at will and win a dominant decision. He notes Silva is a BJJ black belt but believes Ulanbekov can avoid submissions. He includes Ulanbekov in a parlay with Barboza.

Daniel picks Tagir Ulanbekov but acknowledges the line is too wide. He thinks Ulanbekov is one-dimensional with grappling and not a top-tier Russian prospect. He notes that Bruno Silva has fought tough competition and could make it close. However, he believes Ulanbekov's size and wrestling, plus the 'Russian connection' in Abu Dhabi, will edge him the win.

Ulanbekov is a high-level Dagestani wrestler with a strong frame and cardio; Silva fades late and has questionable jiu-jitsu. Ulanbekov will control the fight with takedowns and top pressure, likely winning by decision or late finish.

The Guru picks Ulanbekov, praising his skills as a member of Team Khabib and noting he is a heavy favorite. He believes Silva lacks quick finishing ability and cannot out-skill Ulanbekov over three rounds. He predicts Ulanbekov will wear Silva down and submit him via guillotine choke in the first or second round.