Alan Baudot

Angelo picks Josh Parisian, citing his volume and forward pressure. He notes Parisian has shown takedowns in the past and could use them against Baudot, who has solid takedown defense but is at a disadvantage on the ground. He acknowledges Baudot is more dangerous but believes Parisian's output and potential wrestling will get the win.

Big Brady picks Alan Baudot to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He calls it the '1-800 gambler fight of the week' and says nobody should bet on it. He was more impressed with Baudot's performance against Parker Porter (competitive) than Parisian's poor showings (sloppy, gasses early, 42% striking defense). He expects a sloppy, greasy heavyweight decision. He admits both fighters are not great.

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Baudot's lack of finishing power and Parisian's high output and durability. He thinks Parisian's pace will wear down Baudot as the fight goes on.

Paul picks the underdog Parisian, citing Baudot's lack of impressive wins and Parisian's durability and volume. He thinks Parisian can win by decision and notes Parisian by decision at +300 as a possible play.

Angelo picks Parker Porter confidently, though admits bias as a friend. He highlights Porter's footwork, power, underrated wrestling, and ridiculous volume. He notes Baudot is a competent striker with power but has poor ground game and has never seen a decision. Angelo expects Porter to dominate with wrestling and volume.

Big Brady picks Parker Porter, calling Baudot one of the worst heavyweights. He notes Porter has better cardio and ground game, while Baudot has been finished in all losses and tends to quit. He predicts Porter wins by second or third round knockout.

Cody is very confident in Porter, calling him a potential best pick of the week. He highlights Porter's excellent cardio, high volume striking (149 significant strikes in his last fight), and takedown ability. Cody notes that Baudot has no redeeming qualities: poor grappling, no power, and a weak chin. He believes Porter can win wherever the fight goes, either by out-striking or taking Baudot down and smashing him.

Levi picks Porter, noting that Baudot has a history of quitting (took a knee against Nascimento) and that Porter has heart and toughness. He expects Porter to survive an early storm and take over after the first round. Levi has faded Baudot in both his UFC fights and believes Porter's veteran experience and durability will be key.

Porter has a clear path to victory: weather Baudot's early storm, then take him down and submit him. Baudot has terrible grappling and gasses in the second round. Porter's submission game is underrated, and Baudot has been submitted by lower-level grapplers. Porter by submission at +700 is the best prop on the card. The fight doesn't go to decision at -200 is also a strong play.

Paul picks Porter, expressing surprise that the line is only -250 given Baudot's poor performances. He notes that Baudot has been dominated in his UFC fights and lacks power or grappling. Paul thinks Porter's cardio and pace will be too much for Baudot, and that Porter should win comfortably.

Cody is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, but he prefers the submission prop. He believes Nascimento's BJJ will be too much for Alan Baudot, who has shown poor takedown defense and grappling. He expects Nascimento to take Baudot down and submit him, likely in the first round. He is looking for plus money on the submission prop.

Big Brady picks Aspinall confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and that Baudot is moving up a weight class and is much smaller. He expects a first round knockout, but mentions a submission is possible if Aspinall uses a wrestling-heavy game plan. He notes Aspinall is a BJJ black belt.

Daniel is very confident that Tom Aspinall will win easily. He praises Aspinall's youth, black belt in jiu-jitsu, and training with Tyson Fury. He dismisses Alan Baudot as coming from a suspect regional scene (TKO) and notes that Baudot lost his last fight (though overturned) and was knocked out by a fighter Aspinall already beat. Daniel predicts a first-round knockout.

Aspinall's grappling is far superior; Baudot has shown poor takedown defense and submission vulnerability. Aspinall will take the fight to the ground quickly and secure a first-round submission. Baudot has a puncher's chance on the feet but Aspinall will avoid that.