Career Averages - Edson Barboza
Career Averages - Makwan Amirkhani
Edson Barboza - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
| Jalin Turner | 2 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 43 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jalin Turner | 39 of 66 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 33 of 53 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 3 |
Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.
Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.
Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.
Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.
Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.
The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.
Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.
The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.
Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 71 of 120 | 59% | 73 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 53 of 102 | 51% | 147 of 209 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 26 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 50 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 46 | 63% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Drakkar Klose | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 29 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 71 of 120 | 59% | 26 of 64 | 32 of 38 | 13 of 18 | 57 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 53 of 102 | 51% | 35 of 78 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 15 | 43 of 89 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 24 of 36 | 66% | 4 of 11 | 13 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 15 of 29 | 51% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 18 of 38 | 47% | 7 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 25 of 44 | 56% | 19 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 46 | 63% | 15 of 31 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Drakkar Klose | 13 of 29 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.
Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.
The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.
The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 79 of 242 | 32% | 79 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 220 of 364 | 60% | 259 of 410 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 56 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 52 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 15 of 56 | 26% | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 59 of 93 | 63% | 65 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 79 of 242 | 32% | 38 of 189 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 32 | 77 of 239 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 220 of 364 | 60% | 172 of 308 | 27 of 34 | 21 of 22 | 205 of 344 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 62 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 44 | 38% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 41 of 75 | 54% | 36 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 42 | 26% | 5 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 48 of 79 | 60% | 40 of 70 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 15 of 56 | 26% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 59 of 93 | 63% | 42 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 58 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 47 | 23% | 7 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.
Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.
Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.
Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.
The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 178 of 351 | 50% | 206 of 397 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 164 of 324 | 50% | 178 of 347 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 42 of 80 | 52% | 55 of 103 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 42 of 79 | 53% | 43 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 1 | 32 of 68 | 47% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 35 of 79 | 44% | 39 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 48 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 40 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 41 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 178 of 351 | 50% | 126 of 284 | 14 of 20 | 38 of 47 | 148 of 311 | 15 of 18 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 164 of 324 | 50% | 71 of 204 | 89 of 112 | 4 of 8 | 134 of 290 | 25 of 27 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 80 | 52% | 39 of 77 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 22 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 42 of 79 | 53% | 24 of 56 | 3 of 6 | 15 of 17 | 34 of 69 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 31 of 65 | 47% | 7 of 31 | 23 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 29 of 58 | 50% | 17 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 9 | 29 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 32 of 68 | 47% | 14 of 44 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 4 | Edson Barboza | 35 of 79 | 44% | 24 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 13 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 47 of 90 | 52% | 24 of 63 | 22 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 85 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Edson Barboza | 30 of 55 | 54% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 27 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Sodiq Yusuff | 41 of 76 | 53% | 18 of 47 | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 63 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.
Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.
Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.
The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.
Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.
The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 1 | 21 of 33 | 63% | 21 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 21 of 33 | 63% | 13 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Billy Quarantillo | 19 of 42 | 45% | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.
Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.
Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.
Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.
Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.
Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 34 of 47 | 72% | 182 of 209 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 11:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 1 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 47 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 78 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 2 of 14 | 14% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 57 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 16 of 37 | 43% | 3 of 17 | 6 of 12 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 47 | 72% | 28 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 29 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 19 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 14 of 18 | 77% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 2 of 14 | 14% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Edson Barboza | 13 of 20 | 65% | 12 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 15 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.
Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.
Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.
Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.
Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 0 | 33 of 95 | 34% | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 60 of 117 | 51% | 70 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 21 of 27 | 77% | 31 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giga Chikadze | 33 of 95 | 34% | 15 of 70 | 10 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 60 of 117 | 51% | 31 of 80 | 16 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 56 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giga Chikadze | 10 of 26 | 38% | 4 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 17 of 43 | 39% | 6 of 27 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 17 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Giga Chikadze | 19 of 56 | 33% | 8 of 41 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 22 of 47 | 46% | 10 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Giga Chikadze | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 21 of 27 | 77% | 15 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The moment we’ve all been waiting for has arrived, with respect to those participating on the 29th season of TUF. Two powerful, flashy strikers with eerily similar striking stats toe the line when Barboza (22-9, 16-9 UFC) faces Chikadze (13-2, 6-0 UFC). For Barboza, he can cement his place as a contender at featherweight; for Chikadze, he can announce himself to the world as a legitimate top-tier 145er. Referee Jason Herzog is holding down the fort for this one, and gloves are not touched before they are traded heavily and in high intensity. The first strike of the match comes from Chikadze, who lands a leg kick. Barboza returns fire with his own kick, and the featherweights are coiled and ready to strike. Barboza starts to walk Chikadze down, backing him up into the fence, and he is forced to try to check a quick leg kick. Barboza checks a body kick with a high knee, but an inside chopping kick lands. When Barboza fires off a leg kick, it gets checked as well. Chikadze goes high with a kick that brushes past Barboza’s head, and the Brazilian looks surprised as it zooms at him. Chikadze leaps in the air with a check flying knee, and Barboza just sees it coming in time to avoid it. When Barboza has a calf kick checked, he fires off another that does not get blocked. Barboza looks to feint his way in and he blocks a high kick and checks a body kick with his quick reflexes. Barboza wings an overhand left, and Chikadze is barely able to get out of the way lest it lop his head off. Chikadze spins with a kick to the body, and Barboza marches through it and lands a few punches. Barboza trips Chikadze on the way when Chikadze tries to press the action, and he stands back defiantly as Chikadze aims a flying knee. When Barboza connects with a leg kick, Chikadze points at his leg and then fires off two high kicks. Chikadze drills the body with a kick, and he might have Barboza smarting as Barboza chomps down on his mouthpiece and throws winging punches. Chikadze strides after him confidently, landing a few and evading the counters. Chikadze rips the body with a kick, and he targets the liver and points at Barboza. A high kick and an axe kick attempt from the Georgian conclude the kick-heavy round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Round 2
The featherweights trade calf kicks initially, and Barboza is the one to try to throw hands as he swings a right hand. He times a Chikadze flying knee to kick him up the body, and he stands tall to score when Chikadze lands. Chikadze circles around the outer edge of the fence to chop at the Brazilian with kicks, and Barboza comes up short when trying to give chase. Chikadze connects with a left hand and a liver kick, and Barboza gives chase as he absorbs a stunning right hand. Barboza shakes it off and keeps pressuring Chikadze, where he lands a trio of punches on the way in. Chikadze lets loose a high kick and a liver kick in rapid succession, and the kick to the side keeps finding its home. Barboza scores a calf kick that makes the Georgian changes stances, and Chikadze whips up a high kick with his lead leg. Barboza rips the body with a right hand, and he checks the vaunted “Giga kick” with a high knee block. The Brazilian continues his assault on the body with big hooks and kicks, and Chikadze backs off right into an overhand right. Barboza plods forward as Chikadze appears to be slowing to a degree, allowing him to cut Chikadze off and set up strikes. Barboza nails the lead leg with a heavy kick, and Chikadze tries to return fire with an axe kick but he gets jabbed for his effort. Chikadze gets off a pair of punches as Barboza walks him down like a Brazilian Terminator, and Barboza keeps on drilling punches to the body. Chikadze spams a few axe kicks that hit nothing but his foe’s guard, and Barboza stabs his toes to the midsection. Barboza sweeps the leg, and Chikadze comes back at him with a single leg kick before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Barboza
Round 3
Barboza takes the center of the cage and doubles up on a jab, and Chikadze is ready to fire back but misses the mark when Barboza ducks. Barboza sticks out a few more jabs as Chikadze backs away, and the Georgian scores a kick to the knee when Barboza tries to come at him. Chikadze blasts Barboza with a huge right hand, and Barboza is suddenly on the ropes as Chikadze walks him down to try to do damage. Barboza’s eye is busted up, and Chikadze charges with a barrage of punches. A few right hands knock Barboza back, and Barboza is in trouble and falls over to the ground. Chikadze looks to finish the job as he lands a few punches from on top, and Barboza holds on tight to clear the cobwebs. Barboza looks for a heel hook from his back as he is hurt badly, and when he sits up in it, the Georgian latches on to an anaconda choke out of nowhere. Barboza walks off the cage to break the grip of the choke, and he powers his way to his knees and then back to his feet.
Barboza is still on baby deer legs when he gets back up, and Chikadze takes note this and drops the hammer with a trio of punches that sends Barboza crashing back down to the canvas. Herzog has seen enough, sensing that Barboza may be out even if he is able to amble back to his feet.
“Ninja” successfully puts himself on the map with a wild performance over a perennial contender, and he thanks his opponent for the opportunity and the tough challenge. In his post-fight interview, Chikadze says he would be glad to fill in if a competitor in the featherweight title fight falls through, but if not, that there is a certain Hawaiian in his sights – Max Holloway. Should that striker’s delight come to fruition, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Giga Chikadze def. Edson Barboza R3 1:44 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.
Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.
Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.
Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.
The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 80 of 180 | 44% | 80 of 180 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 98 of 191 | 51% | 98 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 33 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 41 of 83 | 49% | 41 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shane Burgos | 0 | 39 of 82 | 47% | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 80 of 180 | 44% | 41 of 131 | 24 of 33 | 15 of 16 | 80 of 179 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 98 of 191 | 51% | 51 of 134 | 14 of 17 | 33 of 40 | 96 of 189 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 33 of 79 | 41% | 20 of 65 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 78 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 41 of 83 | 49% | 19 of 55 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 23 | 41 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 40 of 83 | 48% | 19 of 55 | 14 of 21 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 39 of 82 | 47% | 23 of 63 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 39 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 7 of 18 | 38% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Shane Burgos | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.
Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.
Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.
The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.
Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.
The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.
Makwan Amirkhani - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 45 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 14 of 28 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 0 | 23 of 32 | 71% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Shore | 28 of 46 | 60% | 23 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Shore | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Shore | 23 of 32 | 71% | 20 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 16 | 25% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident in Jack Shore, believing he will bounce back from his first loss. He thinks Shore has quality wins and evolving skills. He notes Amirkhani has been getting finished lately and his chin is questionable. He expects Shore to win via takedowns or striking.
Big Brady picks Shore confidently, noting Amirkhani has terrible cardio and is a one-round fighter. He believes Shore can survive the first round and then take over with superior striking and grappling. He predicts a third-round submission as Amirkhani gasses. He sees no path for Amirkhani unless he submits Shore in round one.
Cody picks Shore, noting Amirkhani is a one-round fighter with cardio issues. He thinks Shore can survive the first round, then take over with his high work rate and cardio. He mentions Amirkhani's submission threat in round one is real but low probability. He doesn't love minus 500 and prefers live betting or round three props.
Connor sees Jack Shore as a fundamentally sound, process-driven fighter who will find the most straightforward path to victory. He contrasts Shore's consistency and ability to adjust with Makwan Amirkhani's pattern of gassing after early aggression. Connor believes Shore's jab and pressure will neutralize Amirkhani's wild offense.
Jacob is very confident in Jack Shore, calling him one of his most confident plays on the card. He thinks Amirkhani is broken and quits if his early takedowns fail. He notes Shore defended takedowns well against Ricky Simon and should handle Amirkhani's wrestling. He has bets on Shore for premium members.
Shore is a cardio machine with a grapple-heavy approach, coming off his first loss. Amirkhani is dangerous early with his anaconda choke but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Shore's defensive grappling and pace should allow him to survive the early onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds, likely finishing inside the distance.
Paul picks Shore, citing Amirkhani's cardio issues and Shore's durability. He notes Shore moving up to 145 after a bad cut could help. He thinks if Shore survives round one, he can tire Amirkhani and win by decision or late finish. He says minus 500 is unappealing and prefers a live entry.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Shore over Makwan Amirkhani, despite the odds. He notes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions but fades as the fight goes on. Shore has composure in grappling and a massive advantage on the feet with straight punches and a nasty knee. He predicts Shore will survive early grappling exchanges and win in later rounds, possibly by finish.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Shore is a consistent, intelligent fighter who makes the right decisions. He points out that Amirkhani is creative but inconsistent, and Shore's fundamental soundness will prevail. Zane expects Shore to let Amirkhani take risks early, then punish him with jabs and counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 12 of 23 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 90 of 112 | 80% | 144 of 178 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 12 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 46 of 51 | 90% | 61 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 44 of 61 | 72% | 83 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 90 of 112 | 80% | 75 of 94 | 11 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 28 | 37 of 37 | 37 of 47 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 46 of 51 | 90% | 43 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 37 of 37 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 44 of 61 | 72% | 32 of 47 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 40 |
Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, noting it's a grappler vs grappler matchup and it will come down to who shoots first. He believes Pearce will initiate the takedowns and has a high pace. He mentions Amirkhani just submitted a better wrestler in Mike Grundy, and all of Pearce's losses are grappling-based, so he suggests a live bet on Amirkhani if he gets early takedowns.
Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani for the upset by early submission. He likes Jonathan Pearce's style but notes Pearce often gets in bad spots on the mat. Amirkhani has dangerous submissions and good wrestling. However, Amirkhani's cardio is a concern; if he doesn't finish in round one, Pearce takes over. He suggests a live bet on Pearce if Amirkhani doesn't finish round one.
Cody picks Makwan Amirkhani, agreeing the line is fraudulent. He notes Pearce's striking defense is poor and he almost got submitted in his last fight. Cody thinks Amirkhani is dangerous early and can submit Pearce if he shoots. He also notes Amirkhani has good wrestling and could take Pearce down. Cody likes the moneyline at +170.
Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, emphasizing his high pace and ability to put up large strike and takedown numbers. He acknowledges that Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with his wrestling and submissions, but notes that Amirkhani gasses out due to health issues. Levi believes if Pearce can survive the first round, his pace will be too much in the later rounds.
Pearce has the striking advantage, overall MMA advantage, and cardio advantage. Amirkhani's only threat is the anaconda choke. Pearce's team will have him prepared. Pearce can finish later or win a decision. I might pull the trigger at -200.
Paul picks Makwan Amirkhani at +170, calling it a dogger pass. He thinks the line is off and the fight is closer to 50-50. Paul notes Pearce's cardio looked poor in his last fight and that Amirkhani is dangerous on the ground. He believes if Pearce takes Amirkhani down, he'll be in trouble. Paul also likes Amirkhani by submission at +350.
The MMA Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani as an underdog, noting he always likes him but often loses when picking him. He believes Amirkhani is dangerous in the first round with submissions, and Jonathan Pearce leaves himself in bad positions during scrambles. Pearce's pressure and cardio are good, but his technical scrambles are not. The Guru expects an anaconda choke finish early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mike Grundy, believing he will be more disciplined in sticking to wrestling. He notes that Grundy's striking is poor, but if he dives for takedowns, he can win. He thinks Amirkhani is a better striker but may get taken down when he tries to strike. He expects Grundy to take damage on the way in but ultimately win.
Big Brady picks Mike Grundy to win by decision, but expresses low confidence. He notes both fighters have bad cardio, but Grundy has slightly better gas tank (7-10 minutes vs 5). He favors Grundy's striking and believes Grundy can dictate where the fight takes place. Brady says it's a tricky fight and he wants nothing to do with it.
Cody picks Grundy, citing his better striking and Amirkhani's poor cardio. He thinks Grundy's wrestling will neutralize Amirkhani's takedowns, and that Grundy's power will be the difference in a striking battle. He is cautious due to Grundy's own cardio issues.
Daniel Levi picks Mike Grundy confidently, citing Makwan Amirkhani's decline in confidence and cardio, as well as a recent brutal knockout. He believes Grundy's wrestling and durability will overwhelm Amirkhani, who has one round of gas and has been figured out. Levi expects Grundy to win by knockout or submission, noting that Amirkhani is vulnerable after his last KO. He also mentions Grundy's power and submission threats.
Grundy has a more reliable gas tank and power striking, while Amirkhani tends to fold when things go wrong. Grundy attempted 20 takedowns in his last fight, showing relentless pressure. Amirkhani may struggle to get Grundy to the ground, and on the feet, Grundy has the advantage. I lean Grundy, but the line is getting out of whack near -200. I'll sprinkle on Grundy by KO at +750 and Grundy in round 3 at +1400.
Paul picks Grundy, arguing that Amirkhani's only good round is the first if he gets takedowns, but Grundy's wrestling is good enough to stop that. He thinks both will tire, but Grundy has better striking and power. He notes Amirkhani is likely fighting for his job.
The Guru picks Mike Grundy, citing his grappling strength and durability. He believes Makwan Amirkhani lacks grit and gas tank, and will fade as the fight goes on. He predicts Grundy will survive an early grappling onslaught, then take over in round two and finish with a TKO against the cage in round three. He notes both are fighting for their careers.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.
Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.
Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.
Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.
Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 25 of 56 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 6:50 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 100 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 46 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamuela Kirk | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 35 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamuela Kirk | 20 of 49 | 40% | 14 of 40 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 28 of 63 | 44% | 8 of 34 | 9 of 15 | 11 of 14 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamuela Kirk | 6 of 16 | 37% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 11 of 23 | 47% | 3 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamuela Kirk | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 13 of 27 | 48% | 2 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 8 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamuela Kirk | 8 of 13 | 61% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 13 | 30% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady thinks the line is too wide but favors Amirkhani as the better fighter in every area, especially grappling. He notes Kirk is on short notice and gassed in his last fight after a good first round. He believes Amirkhani will get takedowns and win a decision, though he doesn't expect a submission. He considers the skill sets similar but Amirkhani more skilled by a decent margin.
Cody picks Kirk, agreeing with Paul. He notes Amirkhani's striking deficiencies and that Kirk is a better striker. Cody thinks Kirk's grappling is good enough to avoid submissions. He sees value in the dog and suggests live betting after the first round.
Daniel picks Kirk as a plus-220 underdog, believing Kirk can stuff takedowns and win the boxing exchanges. He notes that Kirk trains at Fight Ready with Henry Cejudo and has improved since his Contender Series loss. Daniel acknowledges Amirkhani's experience and takedown game, but points out that Amirkhani has been dropped multiple times and has questionable cardio. He thinks Kirk's striking is better and if he can avoid gassing, he can win a decision or even get a finish. Daniel is going out on a limb but likes the dog.
Kirk has a striking advantage and a BJJ black belt to defend submissions. Amirkhani fades after the first round and has poor striking. Kirk will survive the early grappling and win rounds two and three on the feet.
Paul picks Kirk as a dog, citing his striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Amirkhani's low volume and reliance on early submissions. Paul thinks Kirk can survive the first round and then outpoint Amirkhani. He sees value at +205.
The Guru picks Makwan Amirkhani, noting that Kirk is on short notice and lacks the cardio or early power to stop Amirkhani's takedowns. He references Amirkhani's success getting takedowns on Edson Barboza and Shane Burgos. He predicts Amirkhani will control the first two rounds and win a 29-28 decision, though Kirk might have a good third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 2 | 32 of 74 | 43% | 34 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 25 of 59 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 2 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 7 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edson Barboza | 32 of 74 | 43% | 8 of 42 | 18 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 11 of 39 | 28% | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edson Barboza | 13 of 31 | 41% | 1 of 16 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Edson Barboza | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 3 of 15 | 20% | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Edson Barboza | 7 of 17 | 41% | 2 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 11 | 36% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Barboza as part of a parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov. He believes Barboza has a great stylistic matchup, with 75% takedown defense against elite wrestlers, and that Amirkhani lacks the wrestling to keep him down. He expects Barboza to survive the early storm, stuff takedowns, and land a knockout as Amirkhani slows down. He notes Barboza is a BJJ black belt himself.
Daniel argues that Edson Barboza is not washed up like Tyron Woodley; he is still competitive with top-15 fighters and wins rounds. He believes Makwan Amirkhani is not on Barboza's level and that Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns due to Barboza's improved takedown defense. Daniel also notes that Amirkhani has poor cardio and tends to fold when hit hard, while Barboza has the striking advantage and can finish the fight.
Barboza has a significant striking advantage and solid takedown defense. Amirkhani is a first-round threat but fades quickly; Barboza's body work and kicks will drain him. Expect a third-round TKO after Amirkhani's initial blitz fails.
The Guru picks Barboza, acknowledging Amirkhani's dangerous ground game but believing Barboza's takedown defense has improved over years of training. He notes Barboza survived Khabib's grappling and never got submitted. He expects Barboza to defend takedowns early, then take over with body kicks to drain Amirkhani's gas tank, finishing with a body kick TKO in the late second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Danny Henry | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Danny Henry | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makwan Amirkhani | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Henry | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Makwan Amirkhani | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Danny Henry | 6 of 16 | 37% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Makwan Amirkhani by submission in the first round, citing his excellent wrestling and BJJ. He notes Amirkhani's gas tank is poor, so he needs an early finish, and he expects him to take Henry down and submit him early.
Daniel Levi picks Makwan Amirkhani, expecting him to grind out a win via takedowns and top control. He notes Amirkhani has landed a takedown in every UFC fight except his flying knee KO, and believes he can take down Danny Henry. He acknowledges Henry's length and comeback potential but favors Amirkhani's wrestling and submission threat.
Amirkhani has a massive grappling advantage and should be able to take Henry down and submit him. Henry is not as talented as Burgos, who finished Amirkhani, and Amirkhani's cardio issues shouldn't come into play if he gets the finish early. Picks Amirkhani by submission in the second round.
The Guru does not discuss this fight in the transcript. No pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 1 | 105 of 155 | 67% | 161 of 217 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 23 of 49 | 3 of 19 | 15% | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 16 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 2:45 | |
| 2 | Shane Burgos | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 61 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Shane Burgos | 1 | 72 of 94 | 76% | 84 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Burgos | 105 of 155 | 67% | 61 of 108 | 41 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 39 of 78 | 15 of 17 | 51 of 60 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 22 of 48 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Burgos | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Shane Burgos | 27 of 44 | 61% | 11 of 25 | 14 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 15 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Shane Burgos | 72 of 94 | 76% | 46 of 68 | 25 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 35 | 13 of 14 | 39 of 45 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 9 of 18 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Barboza as part of a parlay with Tagir Ulanbekov. He believes Barboza has a great stylistic matchup, with 75% takedown defense against elite wrestlers, and that Amirkhani lacks the wrestling to keep him down. He expects Barboza to survive the early storm, stuff takedowns, and land a knockout as Amirkhani slows down. He notes Barboza is a BJJ black belt himself.
Daniel argues that Edson Barboza is not washed up like Tyron Woodley; he is still competitive with top-15 fighters and wins rounds. He believes Makwan Amirkhani is not on Barboza's level and that Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns due to Barboza's improved takedown defense. Daniel also notes that Amirkhani has poor cardio and tends to fold when hit hard, while Barboza has the striking advantage and can finish the fight.
Barboza has a significant striking advantage and solid takedown defense. Amirkhani is a first-round threat but fades quickly; Barboza's body work and kicks will drain him. Expect a third-round TKO after Amirkhani's initial blitz fails.
The Guru picks Barboza, acknowledging Amirkhani's dangerous ground game but believing Barboza's takedown defense has improved over years of training. He notes Barboza survived Khabib's grappling and never got submitted. He expects Barboza to defend takedowns early, then take over with body kicks to drain Amirkhani's gas tank, finishing with a body kick TKO in the late second round.
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