UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age 36
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 6' 2"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 246 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chris Daukaus
6.05 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.64 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Rodrigo Nascimento
3.71 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.34 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Chris Daukaus - Fight History
TKO (punches) R1 2:40 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Chris Daukaus 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khalil Rountree Jr. 16 of 24 66% 12 of 19 3 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 17 3 of 4 2 of 3
Chris Daukaus 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Angelo picks Rountree, citing his Muay Thai, speed, and kicks as the difference. He notes Daukaus is a pure boxer who doesn't use takedowns, and the speed advantage at light heavyweight will be key. He expects a decision win.

"I've got to go with Khalil here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree to win by first-round knockout. He notes Rountree's power and aggression when he is 'on', but questions his consistency. He doubts Daukaus's durability and speed at light heavyweight, and believes Rountree will finish him early. He mentions Daukaus's three consecutive knockout losses at heavyweight and thinks the weight cut won't help.

first round knockout
"Round Tree Round Tree first round knockout for me but sometimes Roundtree doesn't show up man sometimes he doesn't show up"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Cody picks Rountree, citing Daukaus' lack of cardio at heavyweight and the unknown of his 40-pound cut to light heavyweight. He notes Daukaus has never attempted a takedown in the UFC and has no history of grappling, while Rountree has shown he can go three rounds. He thinks if the fight stretches, Rountree's power and durability will prevail. He also mentions a potential live betting opportunity if Daukaus takes Rountree down early.

Daukaus by submission at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1; mentions a 14-1 still available
"I think I'm gonna add joke a little Roundtree and uh it would be like a good live betting situation if he does get taken down"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

James has no strong opinion on this fight, calling it a 'weird one' with too much volatility. He notes Rountree is inconsistent and Daukaus is moving down in weight after three bad knockout losses. He doesn't want to speak on it further and says he has nothing to say.

"I don't really have a big opinion about this one... anything can happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

Rountree is on a winning streak and has improved his confidence and aggressiveness. He is dangerous on the feet and should keep the fight upright. Daukaus is dropping to light heavyweight after three straight KO losses at heavyweight. Rountree has the power advantage and should knock him out. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rountree by KO
"I think that Roundtree will do a good enough job in terms of keeping this fight upright and utilizing his Superior striking to eventually find the chin of darkest and put him all clean here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul picked Daukaus at plus 182 two weeks ago and is confident in the move to light heavyweight. He believes Daukaus' speed and power from heavyweight will translate well, and that he has a significant grappling advantage if he chooses to use it. He notes Rountree's poor ground game and thinks Daukaus can get the fight to the mat and finish. He also mentions the submission prop at 20-1 that got smashed down to 8-1.

Bet Daukaus at +182 two weeks ago; mentions Daukaus by submission prop at 20-1 (opened), now 8-1
"I took him out like plus 182 like two weeks ago like basically as soon as the number opened I was just like I think he's at least live"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khalil Rountree Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. over Chris Daukaus, stating Daukaus was never good at heavyweight and is moving down to a higher skill division. He criticizes Daukaus's poor distance management and notes he has been brutally finished three times in a row. He predicts Rountree will KO Daukaus in round one.

KO in round one
"I'm going with a little round tree over Chris Dorcas"
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 1 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 12 of 21 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 16 0 of 1 3 of 4
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus despite Rozenstruik being a 2-1 favorite, because he believes Daukaus is the better striker with better footwork, speed, and volume. He notes both have power and suspect chins, making it essentially a 50-50 fight. He advises not to bet on this fight due to the volatility, but suggests using both in knockout Kings entries.

Do not bet on this fight; use both in knockout Kings entries.
"I want to pick dacas here I think he's the better Striker and that sounds stupid because technically speaking I think rosenstruck is but I think Chris has the better footwork he's active he's faster he's busier"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik, emphasizing his superior power and questioning Daukaus's chin after being knocked out by Curtis Blaydes. He notes Rozenstruik has been more active and hits harder, and expects a first-round knockout. He criticizes the UFC for feeding Daukaus to a heavy hitter.

Rozenstruik wins by first round knockout
"I'm gonna go rosenstruck to win by first round knockout but I think somebody's getting knocked out here and in probably in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody picks Rozenstruik, citing his power and kickboxing background. He notes Daukaus has durability issues, having been knocked out by Lewis and Blaydes. He thinks Rozenstruik will land a counter right hand and knock him out. He suggests Rozenstruik by knockout or under 1.5 rounds.

Rozenstruik by knockout, under 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to lean towards Die Trying gets in the face lands a couple shots gets his confidence going and then just walks into a counter right hand from rosen's truck the flat lines them so give me a rose …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Lock picks Rozenstruik to win, likely by knockout, but he is not comfortable paying the chalk price. He notes that Rozenstruik doesn't always maximize his knockout opportunities, making him hesitant even on the KO line at -125. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he suggests a pump and dump: buy Rozenstruik this weekend, sell after the win, because Rozenstruik has a ceiling and won't crack the top five again. He also mentions Daukaus might be cut after a third straight loss.

pump and dump on PredictionStrike
"I'll go with Rosen strike I'll just say pump and dump buy him this weekend knocks out Chris Chris talk to someone say Curtis"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Paul picks Rozenstruik, noting his power and that Daukaus has been knocked out by heavy hitters. He is more interested in the under 1.5 rounds prop, as he expects a finish. He acknowledges Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout loss but thinks Daukaus' durability is a bigger issue.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)
"I'm gonna pick Rosen strike for the purposes of this show but I'm more interested in the under one and a half rounds like daucus doesn't yeah I mean you you summed it up very very nicely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Chris Daukaus by first-round KO. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and believes he was exposed in his fight against Shamil Abdurakhimov, where he got hit a lot. Rozenstruik has a reach advantage and power, and Daukaus is coming off a loss by his brother. He predicts Rozenstruik will put him down early.

"I think Rosen strike's gonna put him in a spliff so I think Rosen strike owes him in the first round puts him down"
LOSS vs Curtis Blaydes
TKO (punches) R2 0:17 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Curtis Blaydes 1 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Curtis Blaydes 0 23 of 53 43% 23 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Curtis Blaydes 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chris Daukaus 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Curtis Blaydes 30 of 63 47% 23 of 55 1 of 2 6 of 6 24 of 54 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 13 of 38 34% 12 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Curtis Blaydes 23 of 53 43% 17 of 46 0 of 1 6 of 6 23 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 12 of 37 32% 11 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Curtis Blaydes 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 9
Chris Daukaus 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Angelo picks Curtis Blaydes confidently, citing his dominant wrestling and astronomical takedown numbers. He notes that Blaydes took down Rosenstriuk, Volkov, and others multiple times. He thinks Chris Daukaus' boxing and BJJ won't matter because he won't be able to settle into a rhythm with the constant takedown threat. He sees Blaydes winning a grueling fight.

"i tend to agree because curtis is such a dominant wrestler"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Big Brady picks Curtis Blaydes to win by second or third round TKO. He notes that Blaydes has a massive wrestling advantage and will take Daukaus down at will, as Daukaus has shown poor takedown defense in earlier fights. He also mentions that Daukaus has no submissions on his record, so he won't threaten off his back. Brady acknowledges that Daukaus could knock Blaydes out, but Blaydes has only lost to Francis Ngannou and Derrick Lewis, two of the hardest hitters in the division, so he doesn't see Daukaus doing the same.

Blaydes wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think blades is going to take him down at will, I think blades is going to take him down easily here and eventually break dawkisson and probably finish him in the second or third round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Cody agrees Blaydes should win but is wary of the price. He highlights Daukaus' cardio issues and poor chin, and Blaydes' ability to grind with takedowns and elbows. He thinks Blaydes could get a TKO finish due to his weight and pressure. He notes Daukaus has a puncher's chance but sees Blaydes as the logical pick.

puncher's chance for Daukaus by KO
"i think the logical pick would be at blades blades grinds and that's what i'm going with"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Daniel Levi picks Curtis Blaydes, citing his relentless takedown attempts and wrestling pressure as the key factor. He notes that Blaydes attempted 25 takedowns against Volkov and landed 14, and that fighters who keep shooting without discouragement are matchup problems. He acknowledges Daukaus has improved his physique and takedown defense is unknown, but believes Blaydes will implement his game plan and likely win by ground-and-pound stoppage. He also mentions Blaydes could catch Daukaus on the feet if Daukaus is too worried about the takedown.

Blaydes by KO/TKO (ground and pound), fight doesn't go to decision
"I have to favor blades for that reason man... these guys that can attempt takedown after takedown after takedown without getting discouraged... those guys are such a matchup problem"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The host is very confident in Blaydes, believing his wrestling and strength will overwhelm Daukaus. He notes Daukaus lacks the power of Lewis or Ngannou, and that Blaydes can win on the feet or via takedowns. He expects a finish by round 2 or 3 via ground and pound.

Blaydes inside the distance; Blaydes round 2 TKO via ground and pound
"i like blades a decent amount on this like i said i think it's very easy to break down this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

Paul sees Blaydes as a clear favorite due to his wrestling advantage and size. He expects Blaydes to be cautious early but then dominate with takedowns and ground control. He notes Blaydes' chin is compromised but believes he will avoid danger and grind out a win. He considers Blaydes a solid parlay piece early in the week.

parlay piece
"I got curtis blades to weigh and i think curtis blade wins this fight probably eight out of ten times"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Curtis Blaydes

The MMA Guru picks Curtis Blaydes by second-round arm triangle submission over Chris Daukaus. He cites Blaydes' size and wrestling advantage, noting Daukaus hasn't shown his black belt jiu-jitsu in the UFC. The Guru expects Blaydes to be calm due to Daukaus' lack of intimidation, get a double leg, and grind out a submission. He criticizes the 4-1 odds as making betting pointless.

second round arm triangle submission; hates the 4-1 odds
"i'm gonna go with curtis blades here"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
KO (punches) R1 3:36 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 1 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chris Daukaus 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 14 of 28 50% 12 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 10 of 19 52% 6 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 14 of 28 50% 12 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 24 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Daukaus 10 of 19 52% 6 of 14 1 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 15 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Chris Daukaus

Round 1
When the dust settles after this heavyweight headliner, it is very possibly only one man will remain standing. Two-time title challenger Lewis (25-8, 1 NC; 16-6 UFC) will try to get back to his winning ways and aim to earn the UFC’s all-time knockout honor of 13 when he faces hard-nosed Philadelphia-based brawler Daukaus (12-3, 4-0 UFC). In slugfest that might not last long, referee Mark Smith has put on his proverbial hard hat and is ready for whatever comes. They touch gloves, and any extended fists will come out much faster next time. Taking the center of the cage is “The Black Beast,” and the two measure one another for the first 50 seconds until Daukaus leaps forward with a short flurry. Lewis pushes him away and gets warned for pointing his fingers out, and Daukaus responds with a heavy leg kick. Daukaus comes in with a right hook, and Lewis slips it and just misses with an uppercut. Lewis blocks a punch and comes out with a big right, and they both jab at one another with fingers outstretched. Lewis lands a heavy leg kick and looses a fast combination, but Daukaus does not appear worse for wear. Daukaus darts in and out to attack, getting off a right hand and moving away before Lewis can sit down on the power counter he so desperately seeks. Lewis comes up high with a kick that glances off Daukaus’ forearm, and Daukaus kicks at him low to decent effect. The leg kicks start to add up for Daukaus, and Lewis visibly appears frustrated from eating those kicks. “The Black Beast” successfully scores a jumping switch kick, and he might have Daukaus hurt. Lewis smells blood and unleashes a bombardment of blows that rocks Daukaus against the cage. Lewis trips him up as he continues to work Daukaus over, and he nails Daukaus in the chest with a knee to shake him up badly. Daukaus tries to swing back at him, but he is wobbled and cannot land cleanly as Lewis is putting it on him. Letting loose with a trio of thunderous uppercuts, Lewis knocks Daukaus back, off of his feet and out of his consciousness. Knowing his work here is done, Lewis walks off, as the proud owner of the most knockouts in UFC history. Lewis takes his groin cup out of his shorts, and he throws it into the crowd – a fan happily grabs the strange souvenir without gloves on. In victory, Lewis tells the promotion that he would love a title shot, so long as it does not have to be five rounds – he has no interest in preparing for five-round fights anymore. With that, we say goodbye to the UFC in 2021, and we go on break from this promotion for nearly a month until UFC on ESPN 32 comes back with Calvin Katter vs. Giga Chikadze on display on Jan. 15. We will certainly be here for it, and we hope that after you enjoy your holidays, you are here for it too.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Chris Daukaus R1 3:36 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Chris Daukaus with a unit on the moneyline at -140. He believes Daukaus is more technically sound, has more power, and should win. He notes that every Derrick Lewis prediction is the same: pick the other guy but give the caveat that Lewis can knock anyone out. Angelo thinks Daukaus will do the right thing and win, but acknowledges Lewis has a puncher's chance.

1 unit on moneyline at -140
"full money line minus 140 i got a unit on chris dawkins to do the right thing and win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout, citing his high volume (9.03 significant strikes per minute) and improved cardio after quitting his police job. He notes Lewis's low volume and susceptibility to being hit, but acknowledges Lewis's power and comeback ability. He expects Daukaus to land volume and finish Lewis early, but admits Lewis can never be counted out.

first round knockout
"give me chris dawkins to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Cody likes Daukaus's speed and mobility at heavyweight, noting his fast hands and BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Daukaus's cardio concerns from his last loss but believes it has improved. He thinks Daukaus can win wherever the fight goes, but warns that Derrick Lewis always carries KO power, so Daukaus must be careful. Cody picks Daukaus but is cautious about the line.

"I think docus is going to be all over him early but if derek lewis is going to derrick lewis and survives for whatever reason two or three rounds at least we know for him dude could hit you at …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win by knockout. He acknowledges Chris Daukaus's fast hands and impressive 4-0 UFC start with four KOs, but questions Daukaus's durability over five rounds, noting his past knockout loss. Levi believes Lewis's experience and comeback ability, as seen against Volkov and Blaydes, will be key. He expects Lewis to survive the early onslaught and finish Daukaus in the later rounds.

Lewis by KO in rounds 3-5
"I'm going Derek the Black Beast Lewis man to come out here and knock out Chris Daukaus."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Jacob picks Chris Daukaus, citing Lewis' disappointing performance against Ciryl Gane where he quit. He believes Lewis is on the decline and that Daukaus is a much better fighter from top to bottom. Jacob hopes Daukaus avoids the one big shot and wins to bring fresh talent to the top of the division. He thinks Daukaus should win easily.

"chris dawkins is just such a better fighter than derek lewis from top to bottom"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

The host picks Daukaus by KO, citing his superior boxing and movement. He thinks Daukaus will stay safe, work the body, and eventually finish Lewis. However, he acknowledges Lewis's power and is not fully confident, so he prefers the KO prop at +120 over the moneyline.

Daukaus by KO (+120)
"I'm going to take darkest i'm going to take darkest by ko that that seems to be the obvious play here uh that is currently sitting at uh well i can't define it here it is docus pacquiao plus 120 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul agrees with Daukaus but is more cautious, citing Daukaus's lack of shown wrestling and the size difference (Lewis is 270-280 lbs on fight night). He compares the matchup to the Volkov fight where Lewis was losing until a last-second KO. Paul warns that Lewis only needs one strike, so he advises against getting too heavily invested at -140.

"I'm with you as well I like doc dawkis as well in this spot but I don't like him that much because like you mentioned the wrestling he hasn't really shown the wrestling whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog to win by first-round KO. He notes Daukaus is hittable and has poor head movement, as seen in the Abdurakhimov fight. He thinks Lewis has the power and size advantage, and Daukaus is not big enough to grapple with Lewis. He predicts Lewis will land a big right hand over the top for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm going with the underdog derrick lewis here over chris dawkis"
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 1:23 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 2 38 of 93 40% 38 of 93 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 1 28 of 65 43% 28 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
2 Chris Daukaus 0 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shamil Abdurakhimov 1 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 23 of 63 36% 13 of 48 6 of 11 4 of 4 22 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 38 of 93 40% 34 of 88 2 of 3 2 of 2 18 of 58 2 of 5 18 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 19 of 47 40% 9 of 32 6 of 11 4 of 4 18 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 28 of 65 43% 25 of 62 1 of 1 2 of 2 12 of 39 2 of 5 14 of 21
2 Chris Daukaus 4 of 16 25% 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shamil Abdurakhimov 10 of 28 35% 9 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Angelo picks Daukaus, citing his speed, technical boxing, and combination striking. He notes that Abdurakhimov has more power but is less clean and hasn't fought in two years. Angelo believes Daukaus will use his speed and angles to put Abdurakhimov away, though he acknowledges the unknown of Daukaus' takedown defense.

Angelo likes Daukaus at $8,000 in DraftKings and suggests a moneyline bet or inside the distance. He also mentions the line has moved to -210 and recommends inside the distance decision no action at -170.
"Chris Dawkins wins this"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady picks Chris Daukaus to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Shamil Abdurakhimov is 40 years old, has a two-year layoff, and has health issues, while Daukaus has improved significantly and has power. He believes Daukaus will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

first round knockout
"give me chris dawkins to win and chris stock is to get another first round at knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his speed advantage, youth, and recent improvements. He notes Abdurakhimov is 40, hasn't fought in two years, and was throttled by Blaydes. He expects Daukaus to finish him, possibly inside the distance.

Daukaus inside the distance (+100)
"i expect uh darkest to get the job done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi picks Chris Daukaus, citing his fast hands for a heavyweight and his black belt in jiu-jitsu. He notes that Daukaus has finished opponents quickly but has been finished himself when fights go past the first round. Levi is curious to see how Daukaus handles the second round but believes his speed and momentum will be enough against Shamil Abdurakhimov, who has been out for a while.

"i gotta go with chris dawkis the age gap the the speed the momentum all that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Jacob picks Daukaus, calling him a real deal heavyweight prospect. He notes that Abdurakhimov's wrestling is not effective and that Daukaus has a ton of first-round finishes. Jacob believes this is a setup win for Daukaus and expects a finish.

Jacob likes Daukaus by KO/TKO at +120 and plans to include him in DraftKings lineup. He calls it a 'quadruple lock of the week' and mentions knockout Kings.
"Chris Dawkins honestly is a real deal Prodigy in the heavyweight Division"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Chris Daukaus

The host picks Chris Daukaus by first-round knockout. He believes Daukaus' striking is improving fight by fight and his speed and movement will keep Abdurakhimov at bay. He expects Daukaus to land crisp straight shots down the middle and eventually find the knockout blow. He notes that Abdurakhimov has the grappling advantage but Daukaus' striking is too good to fade.

"official prediction for this fight will be darkest and i'm going to take him to one by first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting his speed, boxing advantage, and youth. He mentions Abdurakhimov's age, layoff, and recent loss. He expects Daukaus to win but is unsure about the over/under rounds.

"i think dog is just dances around shamil um and honestly chamill is basically uh almost on the level with like olynyk at this point"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Chris Daukaus over Shamil Abdurakhimov, citing Daukaus' speed and power, and Abdurakhimov's two-year layoff and history of being knocked out. He notes that Daukaus showed good takedown defense against Alexei Oleinik and is a fast starter. He expects Abdurakhimov to be hesitant early due to ring rust, and Daukaus to land a counter blow and finish with a TKO in the first round.

first round tko
"i'm going to be going with chris dalcause here by first round tko over shimila abdurakimov"
TKO (punches) R1 1:55 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 0 5 of 10 50% 6 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Aleksei Oleinik 0 34 of 56 60% 34 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 5 of 10 50% 3 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Aleksei Oleinik 34 of 56 60% 32 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0 28 of 49 2 of 3 4 of 4
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel Levi is impressed with Chris Daukaus's hand speed and accuracy, noting his quick knockouts of Parker Porter and Nascimento. He believes Daukaus only needs 20-30 seconds of pocket exchanges to knock out Oleinik, who is a liability standing. Levi acknowledges Oleinik's 45 submission wins but thinks Daukaus has the grappling skills to avoid submissions and keep the fight standing. He expects a first-round knockout and sees Daukaus as a rising heavyweight prospect.

first round knockout
"i'm going with chris dyches by first round starching of alexia olynyk getting into that top ten"
KO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Nascimento by second round submission; Daukaus first round at +500
"i'm gonna take nacimento to win a buy i'm gonna say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daniel mentions that Daukaus has been losing weight and taking fighting more seriously. He also notes that Nascimento's debut was against a hand-picked opponent.
"Man i might actually take him for the upset i just think the line's off"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

"i'm actually leaning chris doug is here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

first or second round submission (rear-naked choke)
"first or second round nascamento feyer eventually cracks him wobbles him a little bit then goes for the takedown and gets a rear naked choke finish in the first or second round"
WIN vs Parker Porter
TKO (punches and knee) R1 4:28 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 37 of 59 62% 45 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Parker Porter 0 17 of 52 32% 18 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 37 of 59 62% 29 of 49 4 of 6 4 of 4 29 of 50 6 of 7 2 of 2
Parker Porter 17 of 52 32% 12 of 44 1 of 4 4 of 4 14 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Big Brady thinks Chris Daukaus is the more skilled striker and hits harder. He criticizes Parker Porter's lack of fight shape and believes Daukaus will knock him out in the first round. He notes both have been knocked out before but favors Daukaus' power.

first round knockout
"i'm going to pick christopher dawkins to get a first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Parker Porter

Daniel Levi picks Parker Porter. He notes that Chris Daukaus is not as talented as his brother Kyle, and that Porter is the bigger, more physical fighter. He expects Porter to use his size and power to get takedowns and control the fight. He also mentions that Daukaus has been knocked out before and that Porter's game plan is straightforward.

Porter by decision or TKO; Daukaus is the less talented brother; Porter's size advantage
"i'm gonna go with parker porter and i hope he gets on the mic and calls out jon jones"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Parker Porter

The MMA Guru picks Parker Porter based on experience, noting that Porter has fought higher-level competition outside the UFC, including Gabriel Gonzaga. He dismisses both fighters as unskilled but believes Porter's experience on short notice gives him the edge.

"i'm gonna be going with parker porter he's got more experience and i just think that's going to be a good factor to have on a short notice heavyweight bout"
Rodrigo Nascimento - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 45 of 92 48% 87 of 135 6 of 10 60% 1 0 7:33
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 31 of 91 34% 48 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 36 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:47
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 1 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 28 60% 26 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:46
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 34 29% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 26 of 59 44% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 45 of 92 48% 37 of 82 3 of 5 5 of 5 39 of 79 4 of 8 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 31 of 91 34% 19 of 77 7 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 28 60% 14 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 34 29% 7 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 26 of 59 44% 21 of 54 1 of 1 4 of 4 24 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 56 35% 12 of 47 3 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.

bet on Romanov at +115
"I did bet on him at plus 115 I just saw the underdog money I believe in them I am a simp for wrestlers just a FYI so you know love it hate it tail it fade it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.

submission in round 2
"I got to go naso here just based out the fact that he is a BJJ black belt... I'll take naso second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.

"I think Romanov can just strictly win a striking fight and I think he can mix in a few takedowns along the way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.

"I'm GNA pick uh Nasim Mena"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.

finish late
"I believe Nascimento will be able to stay out of too much danger allowing him to pull away in the second and third rounds and probably getting a finish late."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.

"I'll side with Romanov and the fact that he should be able to dictate range of this fight if he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.

TKO early, maybe first round finish, good odds
"I'm going to go with Alexander Romanov here to get it done over Rodrigo and asento maybe by TKO early or maybe a finish in the first round might be some good odds here"
LOSS vs Derrick Lewis
TKO (punches) R3 0:49 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Derrick Lewis 1 41 of 75 54% 47 of 81 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:23
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 27 of 41 65% 72 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Derrick Lewis 0 9 of 17 52% 15 of 23 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:40
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 23 65% 48 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
2 Derrick Lewis 0 17 of 35 48% 17 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:35
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 12 of 15 80% 24 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
3 Derrick Lewis 1 15 of 23 65% 15 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Derrick Lewis 41 of 75 54% 33 of 65 8 of 10 0 of 0 15 of 41 13 of 16 13 of 18
Rodrigo Nascimento 27 of 41 65% 16 of 30 7 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 20 6 of 6 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Derrick Lewis 9 of 17 52% 5 of 11 4 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 2
Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 23 65% 8 of 16 5 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 10 4 of 4 7 of 9
2 Derrick Lewis 17 of 35 48% 14 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 24 8 of 11 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 7 2 of 2 6 of 6
3 Derrick Lewis 15 of 23 65% 14 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 16
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lewis (-148), Nascimento (+124)

Round 1
The UFC heard the constant cries of fans calling for more heavyweight and middleweight main events and made sure to deliver. Despite one victory in his last five go-rounds, Lewis (27-12, 1 NC; 18-10 UFC) is entering into his 12th UFC headliner. He hunts for a concussive victory to extend his knockout record with the promotion, and he has been matched up against Brazilian up-and-comer Nascimento (11-1, 1 NC; 4-1, 1 NC UFC). With seven combined decision wins in their 38 victories, referee Jason Herzog will likely be more than in-cage decoration before the heavyweight headliner is all said and done. With no bad blood between them, the two large gentlemen totaling 529 pounds are summoned to the middle of the cage to bump their extra-large gloves. It’s on with the show. Lewis says hello with a head kick, and when Nascimento comes in towards him, Lewis threatens with an inside trip takedown. Nascimento keeps to his feet as he absorbs a right hand to the side of the head, and he turns Lewis around to the floor. Lewis hits a trip and slams “Yogi Bear” to the ground. Nascimento gets right back up, and Lewis greets him with a knee to the belly. Nascimento tries to take him down in response, but Lewis chucks him to the wall and knees him a few more times for good measure. Nascimento gives him a few knees back to think about, and Lewis elbows him. Nascimento hangs his hands over the fence until Lewis breaks away, and he sneaks in a left hand on the break. Lewis takes a step back to avoid a low kick, and he fires off a jumping switch kick and a swarm of four huge punches. Nascimento ties him up, and Lewis uppercuts and elbows him. Nascimento trips Lewis up and puts him down to the ground, where he looks to get some strikes going on top. Nascimento works the body and head, and he hacks down with a pair of powerful elbows. The Brazilian hammers Lewis with a few more elbows before stepping over to half guard on the other side. Nascimento slashes with elbows until he steps over to full mount, and Lewis explodes at the right time to turn Nascimento over and put the Brazilian on his back. Nascimento clings to his man, holding on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
The heavyweights meet in the middle, and Lewis walks through a low kick to sling two hooks. Nascimento gets off a leg kick, and he walks face-first into a huge right hook from “The Black Beast.” Lewis slugs away until the two end up against the wall, and Nascimento holds on to prevent further offense. Lewis thinks about another takedown as they knee one another in the tie-up, and they jockey for position on the fence. Lewis tries to throw his foe down, but Nascimento keeps his balance and stays upright. Nascimento touches Lewis four times, and Lewis drills him with one far more powerful uppercut. Lewis flirts with another trip, and he lets go of the clinch to unleash a series of hammers. Lewis blasts Nascimento with six punches, and Nascimento desperately clings to him to stop him from landing more. Lewis gets enough space to slash an elbow up top, and he leans on Nascimento. Lewis elbows Nascimento and clobbers the Brazilian with some more heavy punches, and he tries a trip but falls over and gives up his back. Nascimento circles around to take his back, and he gets a hook in. Lewis hand-fights to prevent a submission from coming together, and they turn at the same time so that Lewis is on his back while Nascimento is in half guard. Nascimento grinds down with his elbow immediately, and he sits up and slams it down on Lewis’ face a few times. Nascimento remains on top until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis

Round 3
The heavyweights lumber towards one another, and Lewis tosses out a slow low kick and a one-two that all comes up short. A jumping switch kick from “The Black Beast” slaps into the side, and he measures himself and jumps with a knee. This time, Nascimento is ready for this and counters.
Lewis gathers himself and unleashes hell with a monstrous one-two that separates Nascimento from his senses. Nascimento, barely still conscious, clings to Lewis’ leg in an attempt to show signs of life to Herzog. Lewis hammerfists Nascimento, turning a bit so that he can get a better angle and pound the fight out with vicious power punches.
After around a dozen punctuating blows, Herzog has seen enough, and the UFC’s all-time knockout leader has just gained one more on his mighty ledger. Lewis drops down to his celebratory predator position, and takes his shorts off and fans Nascimento with them. Lewis flops to his back, and he takes his cup out of his undergarments and throws it at the media row—an undisclosed media member catches the groin cup, and he will now have to wash his hands thoroughly. Lewis is not done yet, as he motions to the crowd that he wants to take off his last remaining garb of clothing. After tossing his gloves into the audience, he pulls his shorts down to moon the fans. In his triumphant post-fight interview, Lewis says he’s “getting too old for this s--t” and that commentator Michael Bisping promised him a drink six years ago. Bisping tells Lewis that drinks on him tonight. Next week, the UFC takes back to the Apex, and we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Derrick Lewis def. Rodrigo Nascimento R3 0:49 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento as an underdog, expecting him to grapple heavily and win a boring decision. He notes Nascimento's path to victory is closing distance, holding Lewis against the cage, and taking him down. He acknowledges Lewis's power and durability but believes Nascimento can fight a perfect 25 minutes. He is surprised Lewis is the favorite given his 1-4 record in his last five.

"I think that Rodrigo naso is going to win an insanely boring fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Big Brady picks Derrick Lewis to knock out Rodrigo Nascimento in the first round. He notes that Lewis typically picks against Lewis but believes Nascimento is unimpressive, having gone life-and-death with Dontale Mayes and taken Alexey Oleinik to a split decision. He thinks Lewis just needs one big shot and that Nascimento is hittable. He questions if Nascimento will wrestle, as he didn't against Mayes, but expects Lewis to land a knockout.

"give me Derrick Lewis by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Derrick Lewis, citing Lewis's insane power and ability to get up from takedowns despite a wonky get-up game. He notes that Lewis has a history of losing early rounds but finishing late, as seen against Volkov and Pesta. He believes Nascimento is slow, not durable, and lacks the wrestling to keep Lewis down. Cody suggests Lewis by KO is the most likely outcome but recommends the moneyline for safety.

Lewis by KO is the official prediction; moneyline is safer; live betting opportunity if Lewis loses early rounds
"I think Lewis chalk here is probably yeah is definitely the play like I think it's uh Lewis for me"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Vreeland picks Derrick Lewis, citing his status as the all-time KO leader in the UFC and his ability to explode up from bad positions. He notes that Lewis has to win by knockout, but he leads the UFC in that category. He also mentions that Nascimento has shown heart but that Lewis doesn't often give second chances.

by KO
"I think there's a very good chance he gets it done here by knockout as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Nascimento to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lewis is knockout-or-bust and that Nascimento's takedown game and top control should be decisive. He expects Nascimento to get the fight to the ground and find a finish. He advises against betting Lewis as a favorite and suggests waiting for a better number on Nascimento.

Nascimento by submission; waiting for better odds
"I'm going to go naso naso by sub"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Derrick Lewis. He emphasizes that Lewis can lose early rounds but still knock out opponents late, referencing the Volkov and Pesta fights. He notes that Nascimento has poor takedown accuracy (33%) and has struggled against lesser competition. Paul suggests that if Lewis gets taken down early, the live betting line could offer value. He recommends the moneyline over prop bets due to the uncertainty of round.

Live betting opportunity if Lewis loses early rounds; moneyline is safer
"I got Derrick Lewis for much of the same reasons you do thing is is I think you might be able to get a much better live betting price on this Lewis"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis over Rodrigo Nascimento, arguing that Nascimento has never succeeded in grappling against any opponent and that his only win is against Alan Baudot (overturned). He notes that Lewis has been in big spots while this is Nascimento's first main event. He dismisses Nascimento's chances on the feet, saying if you think he'll succeed there, you're guessing.

"I'm going to go with Derrick Lewis beating Rodrigo ascento."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 70 of 154 45% 91 of 180 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:21
Don'Tale Mayes 0 79 of 159 49% 105 of 190 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 33 of 69 47% 41 of 79 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 60 46% 35 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 40 50% 30 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:48
Don'Tale Mayes 0 23 of 50 46% 36 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 17 of 45 37% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Don'Tale Mayes 0 28 of 49 57% 34 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 70 of 154 45% 51 of 132 9 of 11 10 of 11 58 of 134 12 of 20 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 79 of 159 49% 39 of 103 30 of 44 10 of 12 55 of 128 24 of 31 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 33 of 69 47% 28 of 64 2 of 2 3 of 3 30 of 61 3 of 8 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 60 46% 14 of 36 10 of 18 4 of 6 21 of 50 7 of 10 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 40 50% 13 of 33 3 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 33 5 of 7 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 23 of 50 46% 13 of 36 9 of 13 1 of 1 12 of 37 11 of 13 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 17 of 45 37% 10 of 35 4 of 6 3 of 4 13 of 40 4 of 5 0 of 0
Don'Tale Mayes 28 of 49 57% 12 of 31 11 of 13 5 of 5 22 of 41 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Nascimento, trusting his grappling and cleaner path to victory. He notes Mayes has heavy hands and power, but Nascimento has a good chin. He hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line and would bet that, expecting Mayes to be more defensively aware after their first fight. He advises not betting on sloppy heavyweight fights otherwise.

would bet over 1.5 rounds if line is offered
"Rodrigo is going to be the pick I trust him to come forward I trust him to wrestle I trust him to do all those things"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission. He notes that Nascimento won their first fight by submission and has improved at American Top Team. He believes Nascimento is better everywhere, with a BJJ base and 60% submission rate. He mentions Mayes has 56% takedown defense and can be taken down. He acknowledges Mayes has power but favors Nascimento.

"give me an awesome minute to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi picks Rodrigo Nascimento, recalling that Nascimento dominated Mayes in their first fight, out-striking him and taking him down at will. He notes that Nascimento has been motivated in training, taking his diet and preparation seriously. Levi acknowledges Mayes' physical attributes and one-punch knockout power, but believes Nascimento's mental edge and proven superiority will carry him. He has concerns about Nascimento's chin and cardio, but still favors him to win.

"I'm gonna go Rodrigo Nascimento here... I still think Rodrigo Nascimento is better than this man and for that reason I'm gonna pick him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Don'Tale Mayes

James has a different take than most, believing the +160 price on Mayes is due to the previous fight result rather than skill disparity. He notes that Mayes didn't look bad in the first fight, getting up from bottom and landing decent strikes before giving up his back. He thinks if Mayes doesn't give up his back, the fight is a pick 'em. He also mentions that Nascimento is hittable and Mayes could get a knockout. However, he is not massively passionate about this pick, calling it more of a hunch.

"I think d ma is I think the line's a little bit wide but I'm not massively passionate about this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru picks Rodrigo Nascimento over Don'Tale Mayes. He dismisses Mayes' win over Andrei Arlovski as facing an aging fighter. The Guru notes Mayes looked poor against Augusto Sakai and Hamdy Abdelwahab, being held against the cage. He believes Nascimento's grappling and clinch work will be the difference, and he also favors Nascimento's inside boxing. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Rodrigo naso FAA... I think the grapp is going to be the difference here... 2928 decision"
WIN vs Ilir Latifi
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 49 of 77 63% 76 of 105 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:50
Ilir Latifi 0 68 of 152 44% 76 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Ilir Latifi 0 34 of 73 46% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 11 of 17 64% 38 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:12
Ilir Latifi 0 15 of 36 41% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 16 62% 10 of 16 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:38
Ilir Latifi 0 19 of 43 44% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 49 of 77 63% 20 of 42 18 of 22 11 of 13 46 of 72 1 of 3 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 68 of 152 44% 51 of 122 10 of 21 7 of 9 61 of 145 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 28 of 44 63% 8 of 20 13 of 16 7 of 8 27 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 34 of 73 46% 26 of 60 7 of 12 1 of 1 29 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 11 of 17 64% 5 of 10 3 of 3 3 of 4 9 of 14 0 of 1 2 of 2
Ilir Latifi 15 of 36 41% 10 of 28 1 of 2 4 of 6 14 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 16 62% 7 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ilir Latifi 19 of 43 44% 15 of 34 2 of 7 2 of 2 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 14, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Angelo picks Rodrigo Nascimento because he believes Latifi is not fully committed, having retired in his last fight and now returning for a paycheck. He thinks Nascimento is younger, hungrier, bigger, and more athletic, and should be able to defend takedowns and get his own. He has a 1-unit moneyline bet on Nascimento at -155 but expresses some buyer's remorse, acknowledging Latifi could be boring and lay on top.

1 unit moneyline bet at -155
"I like the much larger NASA Mento to defend takedowns touch latifi get him flustered and then get his own takedowns I do have a one unit moneyline bet on NASA mental at minus 155"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 12, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by decision. He cites Nascimento's youth, size, reach advantage, and better striking volume. He expects Nascimento to stuff most of Latifi's takedowns and outwork him on the feet. He notes Latifi is undersized for heavyweight and does little offensively. However, he calls it a low-level heavyweight fight and doesn't want much action on it.

decision
"give me an awesome Mentor I'll take him to win by like a greasy greasy decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody picks Nascimento but is wary of the price. He notes Latifi's takedown-and-hold style could be effective, but Nascimento's size and reach should allow him to win the striking exchanges. He calls it a greasy heavyweight fight and would take Latifi at +200 in a prop bet.

would take Latifi at +200 in a two-to-one prop
"I will take NASA menu but if someone was to offer me a two to one chewy bet."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Connor picks Latifi, agreeing that he won't get out-wrestled and that Nascimento is not very good. He notes that Latifi has beaten similar opponents and that Nascimento's boxing is okay but he is slow and hittable. Connor is confident in Latifi's wrestling and ability to make fights ugly.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi leans toward Rodrigo Nascimento due to youth, size, and volume advantage. He notes Nascimento has better volume and is 10 years younger, but questions his chin and takedown defense, which hasn't been tested. He recalls Nascimento struggling against Alan Baudot. He thinks Latifi is on his way out but acknowledges Latifi's better defense and takedown threat. He picks Nascimento but is not confident.

"I'm a lean nasimento just because of the youth and the upside"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 15, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing his greater motivation and intention to advance his career. He expects Nascimento to use leg kicks and striking to stay away from Latifi's power, then wear him down in the clinch and eventually control him on the ground. He predicts a decision win, noting the over might be a good play.

"I'm gonna go with the guy that has more intentions on trying to take his career to the next level and that's Rodrigo nacimento"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul picks Nascimento, expecting him to pick Latifi apart at range. He notes Latifi's low striking volume and age, and thinks Nascimento's reach and size will be decisive. He is not betting but picks Nascimento.

"NASA Mento is going to be the pick."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 16, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The MMA Guru finds this fight difficult to predict but sides with Rodrigo Nascimento. He notes Ilir Latifi has teased retirement and is often injured, which makes him unreliable. He believes Nascimento is the better grappler and has decent stand-up, and expects Latifi to expend energy early trying to take him down. He predicts a third-round exhaustion-based TKO where Nascimento stuffs takedowns and batters Latifi against the cage.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go Rodrigo nascarmento for here ... getting a third round exhaustion-based TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 19, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ilir Latifi

Zane picks Latifi, noting that he is hard to out-wrestle and has beaten technically superior boxers. He believes Latifi can out-wrestle Nascimento and that Nascimento's success comes from out-wrestling others, which won't work against Latifi. Zane acknowledges Latifi is 40 but says he is a great athlete for heavyweight and has a long tail.

"I'll pick with TV. Yeah, he just makes fights ugly and has the like a nascent skills and athleticism to eke those fights out."
WIN vs Tanner Boser
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 62 of 115 53% 163 of 220 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:58
Tanner Boser 0 36 of 86 41% 91 of 149 3 of 7 42% 1 0 8:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 23 65% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:58
Tanner Boser 0 9 of 21 42% 37 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 32 of 57 56% 42 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tanner Boser 0 15 of 37 40% 18 of 41 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:48
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 15 of 35 42% 90 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tanner Boser 0 12 of 28 42% 36 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 62 of 115 53% 40 of 87 13 of 16 9 of 12 59 of 112 1 of 1 2 of 2
Tanner Boser 36 of 86 41% 32 of 81 4 of 5 0 of 0 30 of 80 4 of 4 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 23 65% 10 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 4 12 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 2
Tanner Boser 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 32 of 57 56% 20 of 42 6 of 7 6 of 8 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 15 of 37 40% 15 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Rodrigo Nascimento 15 of 35 42% 10 of 28 5 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tanner Boser 12 of 28 42% 11 of 27 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tanner Boser vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Boser (-165), Nascimento (+140)

Round 1
Heavyweights take center stage for the only time tonight, with two mid-range competitors in the division that are a couple wins away from a number next to their name. Boser (20-8-1, 4-3 UFC) recently ended a skid by punching out Ovince St. Preux, while Nascimento (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1, 1 NC UFC) thought he was going to do the same against Alan Baudot, only to get flagged for Ritalin. Octagon ranger Mark Smith may get a workout trying to dodge the punches and kicks from these fighters, who have no plan in touching gloves. Nascimento works his way in, and he walks right into a right hand from the Canadian. Nascimento fires back with a clubbing left hand, and he follows it with another that knocks his opponent back. “Yogi Bear” shoots for a takedown, and he elects to lift Boser up in the air and deposit him to the mat not-so-gingerly. Nascimento lands in half guard, and he isolates the left wrist with a two-on-one wrist control in an attempt to pass. Boser does not fall for it, and he recovers his guard, so Nascimento thanks him with several heavy punches on the side. Boser smacks Nascimento a few times from his back to keep him honest, and he is hanging on tight in hopes of a referee standup. Boser has his hands clasped around the waist, and this prohibits Nascimento from getting any significant leverage to drop down noteworthy ground-and-pound. Boser explodes in hopes of bucking the larger man off his hips, but when that does not succeed, he sucks Nascimento back into his guard. Smith asks the Brazilian to keep working or he will lose the position, and Boser attempts multiple times to scramble. The Canadian works his way towards the wall, and he spins through a back take attempt to drill Nascimento with a few left hands. Nascimento stands up with his back to the wire, and he gets uppercutted before Boser pushes off. Boser sticks and moves with jabs and a leg kick, but one overhand right from Nascimento shakes Boser up. Boser decides to clinch up again to stop these strikes from landing, and he presses forward with his shoulder on the chest to keep Nascimento pinned. Boser sneaks an elbow up to break, and he kicks the body when they separate. Nascimento fires off a high kick that misses the mark, and he counters a leg kick with a pair of swatting hooks. Boser rings Nascimento’s bell with a right hand, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento

Round 2
Nascimento is the immediate aggressor as he marches forward to engage, and it is Boser who lands first with two looping punches. Boser fires off a leg kick, Nascimento does the same, and the power of Nascimento is giving Boser some issues. Boser is the sharper striker, with jabs and straighter punches, but the looping strikes from Nascimento are knocking the Canadian back even when guarded. Boser sticks the jab and wings a hook, and Nascimento answers him with the same blow. Boser snaps out several more jabs, and he has a kick checked. Boser punches the body and remains mobile, and he staggers Nascimento with a left hand. Boser loads up on several more punches that careen off the guard, and he backs Nascimento up with his barrage. Boser does not burn himself up or empty the gas tank searching for a finish, and he goes back to his rhythm that includes stance switches and active movement. “Yogi Bear” lumbers forward, lobbing picnic baskets that are his massive fists, and Boser takes a few on the chin but avoids the others. The forward momentum from Nascimento allows him to dump Boser down to the ground, and he falls forward and into a back take opportunity. Boser defends his neck, but he sits up and punches behind his head. As he does this, Nascimento snakes the arm around and ties up the rear-naked choke. Boser signals to Smith that he is fine, and he spins around to his back to escape the choke. Nascimento attempts to move from half guard to the mount position, and Boser stops him from doing so and spams short punches. Nascimento lands a pair of blows as he rides out the round on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Boser
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Boser

Round 3
The Brazilian starts out in an effort to stalk Boser down and possibly close the distance for a takedown, but Boser is on his bike. Nascimento is slower but still lands a few punches, while Boser slips and jabs him. Boser gets caught with a short hook as he tries to get in his groove, and Nascimento changes levels to secure a tackling takedown. Boser hooks his arm over the fence and is not called on it, but it does not prevent him from getting put on his back. Nascimento smothers from on top, with Boser’s guard closed, and Nascimento occasionally gets some strikes going from on top. The Brazilian shifts to half guard, and Smith tells him to start working. Nascimento hangs out on top and scores a few punches before grabbing Boser’s left leg and holding it up strangely. Boser tries to burst out of the posture, but he does not have the energy or power to get the man 30-something pounds heavier off of him. Nascimento lands a single right hand in hopes of staving Smith off, and Boser recovers his guard. The Brazilian stays pinned to Boser like a cheap suit, occasionally smacking him with a closed fist, but doing little in the way of damaging ground strikes. Smith is watching closely, and he intervenes to stand them up with 35 seconds left in the fight. Boser climbs to his feet and starts throwing bombs, and he drills Nascimento with an uppercut when Nascimento shoots for a takedown. Boser hurts the Brazilian with a combination, and he tries to follow it with a head kick. Nascimento responds with a knee to the body, and Boser chases him down and swings everything he has with several punches until the grueling matchup comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nascimento (29-28 Nascimento)

The Official Result
Rodrigo Nascimento def. Tanner Boser via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Angelo picks Boser, citing his athleticism and striking, but acknowledges Nascimento's size and grappling edge. He notes that Boser has been bullied by bigger wrestlers before, but Nascimento's layoff may help Boser. Angelo is hesitant and does not recommend betting on this fight.

No bet recommended.
"i like tanner boser here to get the win uh this is a tough tough fight to pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady leans with Rodrigo Nascimento to win by first-round submission. He views this as a striker vs. grappler matchup: Boser has the clear striking advantage, while Nascimento is a BJJ black belt with slick submissions. Brady notes that Boser has struggled when taken down (e.g., against Ilir Latifi) and may not have a good get-up game. He also mentions that Nascimento is the younger fighter (29) and trains at American Top Team. However, Brady acknowledges that if Nascimento cannot get the takedown, Boser could knock him out. He calls the line 50/50.

first round submission
"i'll say nascimento wins by first round submission against tanner boza"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Cody thinks Boser is faster, more mobile, and has better cardio. He notes Nascimento's poor performances against Chris Daukaus and Alan Baudot, and that Boser can out-volume him. However, he cautions that heavyweight fights are volatile and Boser has been off for 15 months.

"i'm expecting to see a lot just more improvements over tanner poser overall"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Daniel Levi leans Tanner Boser but is not confident. He notes Boser's volume striking and durability, but worries about Nascimento's jiu-jitsu if the fight goes to the ground. He thinks Boser can piece him up on the feet, but Nascimento has a reach advantage and a questionable chin. He does not bet due to the uncertainty.

"I'm a lean bozer but i'm not sure man i really don't know"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Jacob picks Boser, believing his speed and footwork will keep the fight standing, where he has the advantage. He notes that Nascimento needs takedowns but may not be quick enough to close the distance. Jacob warns against betting on heavyweights but thinks Boser wins a striking battle.

Advises not to bet on heavyweights.
"i think this is quite simply tanner keeps his distance in and out is able to outstrike rodrigo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Nascimento is the bigger man and has a clear grappling advantage. Boser is a technical striker but struggles to get back to his feet when taken down, as seen in the Latifi fight. Nascimento should drag Boser to the ground and control him for 15 minutes. Boser's recent knockout power is a threat, but Nascimento's size and pressure should be enough to grind out a decision.

Nascimento by decision at +700 is live
"I think that nasamento can get a hold of him drag him to the ground and from there I think he's going to be too heavy and too difficult to get up from under so give me nasamento"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

Paul agrees, noting Boser's high volume and that Nascimento has looked poor. He likes Boser's prize picks line of 35.5 significant strikes, thinking it's too low. He also mentions Boser's speed and cardio advantages.

Boser over 35.5 significant strikes
"bozer's a pretty high volume guy as long as he's not getting taken down held on his back"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tanner Boser

The MMA Guru picks Tanner Boser by KO in the first round. He thinks Boser has good hands for heavyweight, is young, and is underrated. He notes Boser held his own against Ciryl Gane and arguably beat Ilir Latifi. He believes Nascimento is slow and sloppy on the feet, as seen against Chris Daukaus, and that Boser's quick hands in the pocket will lead to a multiple-punch combination finish late in the first round.

KO in the first round
"i'm going with tanebosa by ko in the first round here"
LOSS vs Alan Baudot
No Contest (overturned) R2 1:29 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 60 of 91 65% 73 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 49 of 83 59% 51 of 85 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 50 of 66 75% 63 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Alan Baudot 0 18 of 31 58% 19 of 32 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:36
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 25 40% 10 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alan Baudot 0 31 of 52 59% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 60 of 91 65% 45 of 73 10 of 13 5 of 5 36 of 64 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 49 of 83 59% 41 of 75 6 of 6 2 of 2 45 of 75 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 50 of 66 75% 40 of 56 6 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 39 19 of 20 5 of 7
Alan Baudot 18 of 31 58% 13 of 26 3 of 3 2 of 2 16 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 25 40% 5 of 17 4 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alan Baudot 31 of 52 59% 28 of 49 3 of 3 0 of 0 29 of 47 2 of 5 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Cody is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, but he prefers the submission prop. He believes Nascimento's BJJ will be too much for Alan Baudot, who has shown poor takedown defense and grappling. He expects Nascimento to take Baudot down and submit him, likely in the first round. He is looking for plus money on the submission prop.

Nascimento by sub (looking for plus money)
"I think the play here if any is not cemento by sub what about you."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Paul is confident in Rodrigo Nascimento, calling Alan Baudot one of the worst heavyweights in UFC history. He notes Baudot's poor grappling and questionable chin, and expects Nascimento to take him down and submit him. He thinks Nascimento is a safer play than other heavy favorites on the card.

"Nasty men should buzz saw right through him as far as the three to one favorites on this card like he's heavyweight he just got knocked in 45 seconds but he feels a lot safer than some of the other …"
LOSS vs Chris Daukaus
KO (punches) R1 0:45 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Daukaus 2 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Daukaus 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 10
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Nascimento by second round submission; Daukaus first round at +500
"i'm gonna take nacimento to win a buy i'm gonna say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daniel mentions that Daukaus has been losing weight and taking fighting more seriously. He also notes that Nascimento's debut was against a hand-picked opponent.
"Man i might actually take him for the upset i just think the line's off"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

"i'm actually leaning chris doug is here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

first or second round submission (rear-naked choke)
"first or second round nascamento feyer eventually cracks him wobbles him a little bit then goes for the takedown and gets a rear naked choke finish in the first or second round"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:05 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 32 of 52 61% 45 of 65 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:23
Don'Tale Mayes 0 27 of 48 56% 42 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 21 of 39 53% 33 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Don'Tale Mayes 0 16 of 33 48% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:20
Don'Tale Mayes 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rodrigo Nascimento 32 of 52 61% 14 of 33 6 of 7 12 of 12 26 of 45 3 of 3 3 of 4
Don'Tale Mayes 27 of 48 56% 10 of 30 7 of 8 10 of 10 21 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rodrigo Nascimento 21 of 39 53% 8 of 25 4 of 5 9 of 9 18 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2
Don'Tale Mayes 16 of 33 48% 6 of 22 2 of 3 8 of 8 15 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Rodrigo Nascimento 11 of 13 84% 6 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2
Don'Tale Mayes 11 of 15 73% 4 of 8 5 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento (Rogério) to win by submission in the first round. He notes that Mayes has been taken down and submitted before, and Nascimento is very good on the ground. He acknowledges that on the feet it could be dicey due to Mayes' size and power, but believes Nascimento will get the takedown and finish quickly.

submission, first round, fight ends inside distance
"I like Rajee Rio here I think he's going to be able to get mates down... I think an get may's down and when he does I think it's gonna be over shortly after so I like argyria to get …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Levi leans with Rodrigo Nascimento due to his advantage on the mat. He notes that Mayes has an unorthodox striking style but suspect ground game and cardio. He acknowledges limited footage on Nascimento but believes his jiu-jitsu brown belt and training at ATT give him the edge. He has no confidence in this pick.

"I'll lean with Rodrigo Nascimento but you know no confidence in this pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The host picks Rodrigo Nascimento, praising his submission skills and undefeated record. He believes Mayes lacks the grappling fundamentals to avoid submissions, and that Nascimento will get a submission in the first or second round. He notes Mayes' only chance is a knockout on the feet.

Rodrigo Nascimento by submission in the first or second round
"rod Rio Nascimento fan here who prides himself on going for the submissions is gonna have a much easier time in doing so and I think that rod Rio Nascimento fair is gonna be a good addition to the heavyweight …"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Nascimento, citing his legit BJJ black belt, 100% finish rate (75% by submission), and cardio advantage. He expects Nascimento to submit Daukaus in the second round. He notes Daukaus has bad cardio and has been submitted before, and that Nascimento's striking has improved. He advises waiting for the line to improve.

Nascimento by second round submission; Daukaus first round at +500
"i'm gonna take nacimento to win a buy i'm gonna say second round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daniel picks Chris Daukaus as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He notes that Daukaus has slimmed down and looked impressive in his last fight, showing underrated hand speed. He thinks Nascimento is unproven against real competition and that this is closer to a 50/50 fight. Daniel is not calling Nascimento a fraud but sees value on Daukaus.

Daniel mentions that Daukaus has been losing weight and taking fighting more seriously. He also notes that Nascimento's debut was against a hand-picked opponent.
"Man i might actually take him for the upset i just think the line's off"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Chris Daukaus

Daukaus has sharper hands and improving striking, while Nascimento is wild and has questionable cardio. Daukaus can land clean shots and potentially finish in the second or third round. However, Nascimento's size and BJJ are threats, making this a stay-away fight.

"i'm actually leaning chris doug is here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

The Guru picks Nascimento, citing his size, athleticism, and patient approach. He notes Nascimento's takedown ability and ground control, and believes he will present challenges Daukaus hasn't faced. He predicts Nascimento will wobble Daukaus with strikes, then take him down and submit him with a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

first or second round submission (rear-naked choke)
"first or second round nascamento feyer eventually cracks him wobbles him a little bit then goes for the takedown and gets a rear naked choke finish in the first or second round"